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The Opener

The Opener: Diaz, Injuries, Rule 5

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With the World Series in the rear-view and the offseason officially underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Edwin Diaz Sets Records With New Mets Pact

The first major signing of the offseason occurred yesterday evening, with the Mets re-signing star closer Edwin Diaz to a massive five-year, $102MM contract. Diaz now becomes the first relief pitcher to ever secure a nine-figure deal, and the first with a deal of an average annual value north of $20MM. Diaz secured that contract by having a platform season for the ages, throwing 62 innings to a 1.31 ERA and a mind-boggling 0.90 FIP. While the Mets have plenty more to do in rebuilding the bullpen as Trevor May, Seth Lugo, and Mychal Givens depart for free agency, the Diaz re-signing serves as an important first step in that process. The record-setting contract also serves as a reminder of owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to flex financial muscle, which will be important as the Mets look to re-sign or replace players such as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo this offseason.

2. World Series Teams Examine Injuries

Though the 2022 World Series is now a thing of the past, the participants must now turn their focus to the injuries they suffered throughout the season that had been ignored in favor of playing through the postseason run. Most notable among these, of course, is Bryce Harper, who suffered UCL damage in May, with surgery this offseason a possibility. For the World Series champion Astros, three players have injuries to worry about entering the offseason: Alex Bregman suffered a broken finger late in Game 6 on Saturday, Yuli Gurriel missed Game 6 after a sprain to his MCL, and Martin Maldonado played through both a broken hand and a sports hernia this postseason, the latter of which will require surgery according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Bregman’s injury has the least question marks surrounding it, as he will reportedly be ready for Spring Training in 2023. More details could be announced regarding the rest of these injuries in the coming days.

3. Rule 5 Draft Protection Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview, the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft is November 15th this year. Seeing as there was no R5 draft last offseason, teams will likely have more players to protect than usual, which could lead to roster crunches across baseball. This could also lead to some players getting cut from 40-man rosters a few days ahead of November 18th’s non-tender deadline, and some minor trades such as yesterday’s Sam Hilliard deal between the Rockies and Braves. Overall, with these dates being earlier on the offseason calendar, fans should expect a larger quantity of winter moves to happen in this first week of the offseason than in recent years, though said moves won’t necessarily be at the top of the free agent market.

The Opener: Astros, Options, Diamondbacks

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click

After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.

2. Option Decisions Loom

A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner’s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong’s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.

3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam

Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.

The Opener: World Series, Mets, Brewers

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. The World Series Sees Its Second No-Hitter

After watching Lance McCullers Jr. give up five home runs while Ranger Suarez shut the lineup out in Game 3, Astros fans were no doubt feeling a bit queasy headed into a Game 4 against Aaron Nola, one of the best pitchers in the NL. Just as they did in Game 1, however, the Astros lineup managed to get to Nolan, striking for five runs in the fifth inning. However, the Astros’ offense wasn’t the story of this game — Cristian Javier struck out nine over six shutout innings to combine with Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly for a no-hitter. It was the second no-hitter in World Series history (preceded by Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series), and just the third-ever postseason no-hitter (also at Citizens Bank Ballpark, Roy Halladay tossed a no-no in the 2010 NLDS). While there’s still plenty of baseball to be played this November, it’s worth noting that both Larsen’s Yankees and Halladay’s Phillies went on to win their respective series. For tonight’s pivotal Game 5, the Phillies will start Noah Syndergaard against Houston’s Justin Verlander.

2. The Mets Brace For Losses, Eye Additions In Free Agency

After a 101-win season that ended abruptly at the hands of the Padres in the Wild Card series, the Mets now face some significant free agent losses, and center fielder Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Diaz are reportedly the free agents New York wishes to retain the most. Mets owner Steve Cohen is certainly unafraid of making a splash in free agency, and the team will have to devote some more resources to rebuilding it rotation, as three starters (Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker) are likely to hit free agency this offseason, and a fourth could join them if the Mets decline Carlos Carrasco’s club option. Few players with deGrom’s level of potential impact exist in the game, much less on the free agent market, but Verlander and Carlos Rodon are both arms who could take deGrom’s place alongside Scherzer at the top of the rotation in Queens. The likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Anderson represent possible mid-rotation replacements for Bassitt, while Walker’s quality back of the rotation production could be replaced by a variety of pitchers, including Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, or Sean Manaea.

3. Brewers Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration

In yesterday’s opener, we discussed the massive arbitration class the Rays have heading into 2023, with their 19 players being the most of any club. Milwaukee isn’t far behind with an 18-player class that is projected to receive $79.9MM, and thus the Brewers are set to approach their 2023 payroll even before making additions this offseason. While there are some non-tender candidates in the group, most of the significant money in Milwaukee’s arbitration class is tied up in productive players too valuable to just cut, so a trade of one of these more expensive names (i.e.Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames) could make some sense. Of course, then the Brewers face the new problem of finding adequate replacements for their production for a lower price. Whatever path he may choose, GM Matt Arnold’s first offseason at the helm of the Brewers’s front office will be one to follow.

The Opener: Guardians, Rays, Yankees

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With Game 3 of the World Series in the rear-view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Guardians Dominate Gold Glove Award Results

This year’s Gold Glove award winners were announced yesterday, with a remarkable amount of first time winners. Also remarkable is the way Cleveland dominated the AL; while no other team took home more than two Gold Gloves, the Guardians brought in a whopping four: Shane Bieber at pitcher, Andres Gimenez at second base, Steven Kwan in left field, and Myles Straw in center field. All four of the team’s Gold Glove recipients are under team control for multiple seasons, with Bieber set to hit free agency after 2024, Gimenez after 2027 and both Straw and Kwan under team control through the end of the 2028 season. These gold glove awards not only serve as a reminder of the successful season the Guardians had, but of the incredible youth of the roster, and the team control that comes with that youth.

2. The Rays Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration

Yesterday’s announcement of this year’s Super-Two cutoff prompts a re-examination of the coming arbitration class. The Rays have 19 players up for arbitration this offseason, the most in the majors. Matt Swartz projects Tampa to have to pay out over $42MM to retain all of their arbitration eligible players, it seems all but guaranteed that the Rays will have some tough decisions to make in terms of who to keep, who to trade, and who to non-tender. First baseman Ji-Man Choi, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough and catcher Francisco Mejia highlight the list of Rays in this arbitration class who may change uniforms this offseason as Tampa’s front office looks to optimize their limited financial resources.

3. Yankees To Explore Trade Market

The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted in a mailbag yesterday that the Yankees “simply have to try” trading third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks this offseason, citing both roster flexibility and payroll concerns. Hicks and Donaldson are set to cost the Yankees a combined $32MM this offseason, money a team focused on attempting to retain likely AL MVP Aaron Judge while simultaneously improving other areas of the roster would surely like to use elsewhere. Neither player can be expected to bring much of significance back to New York in trade, however. Donaldson is coming off a down season that saw him post a below average OPS+ for the first time since establishing himself as a full time player in 2013, and will play next season at age 37. Hicks, meanwhile, slashed just .216/.330/.313 in his first full season of games since 2018. While he’s younger than Donaldson, he still celebrated his 33rd birthday last month. Kirschner speculates that Hicks could bring back a “mid- to low-level” prospect, but the more likely scenario is that the Yankees would have to engage in some sort of bad contract swap or attach a mid- to low-level prospect of their own to move these aging, expensive batters.

The Opener: World Series, Pujols, Orioles

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the calendar flips to November, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. World Series Game 3 Rained Out, Improving Philadelphia’s Pitching Matchups

Yesterday’s opener mentioned the availability of Phillies aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler among the biggest obstacles facing Philadelphia headed into their three game homestand, and that obstacle has been partially removed due to the postponement of last night’s game: Aaron Nola is now in line to start Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, while Houston is opting to maintain their rotation order, leaving ace Justin Verlander to start Game 5 with an extra day of rest, the same decision the Phillies have made for Wheeler in Game 6, with Noah Syndergaard likely set to take Nola’s place starting Game 5, potentially allowing him to pitch deeper into the game than he would have if he had pitched last night, as previously planned. Tonight’s game will see lefty Ranger Suarez toe the rubber for Philadelphia opposite Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.

2. Albert Pujols Officially Retires

The retirement of Albert Pujols sees one of baseball’s all-time legends step away from the game, but it also poses a question that, as recently as this spring, would’ve been unexpected: How is St. Louis going to replace his production? Pujols slashed a phenomenal .270/.345/.550 in his final season, good for a 154 OPS+ that registers as his best mark since 2010, his age 30 season. Nolan Arenado declining to opt-out of his contract taking one major offseason question for the Cardinals off the table, but Pujols’s retirement combined with the impending retirement of longtime catcher Yadier Molina are going to leave St. Louis with plenty of work to do this offseason. After all, only Aaron Judge posted a better offensive season than Pujols in 2022 among pending free agents (min. 300 PA), and no catcher in baseball has the sort of illustrious reputation as a defensive catcher and game-caller that Molina has. Speculation has swirled early on in this this offseason connecting the Cardinals to the longtime catcher of their division rival Cubs, Willson Contreras. Contreras represents a particularly intriguing option for St. Louis, as he could help cover for the loss of both Pujols and Molina, giving the Cardinals a quality right-handed bat to slot into the DH slot on occasion while also shoring up a catching corps that includes Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera.

3. Orioles Have Infield Surplus Headed Into 2023

BaltimoreBaseball’s Rich Dubroff this morning discussed a coming logjam in the Orioles infield this offseason, suggesting that if no trades are made, Ramon Urias may be pushed into a utility role by the impending arrival of Jordan Westburg in addition to the presence of Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo. Dubroff notes that this ignores players such as Terrin Vavra and Joey Ortiz, who could be squeezed out of playing time if no changes are made to the infield mix. The Orioles stepping into the infield market as a seller hoping to acquire win-now pieces would be an interesting development, with pitching being the clearest need for a team that lost John Means to Tommy John surgery early this year and had just one starter who made at least 20 starts with an ERA+ over 100. The Marlins stand out as a possible trade partner with their surplus of pitching, offensive woes, and tight budget, but there’s no doubt a variety of teams would be interested in adding a player like Urias should he hit the trade market.

The Opener: World Series, White Sox, Senga

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR!  Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the postseason continues and the baseball world gears up for the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today across baseball:

1. The World Series Heads To Philadelphia

The World Series is set to return to Philadelphia for the first time since 2009 tonight, with Noah Syndergaard set to take on Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 3. The series is tied 1-1 after the Phillies managed a comeback from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 but were unable to do so for a second time in Game 2. With Philadelphia’s pair of aces, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, unlikely to return to the mound before Game 5, the Phillies will have to rely on their offense, a well-rested back of the bullpen, and the boost of playing front of their home crowd to overcome the Astros, who won 19 more regular season games in 2022 than Philadelphia.

2. The White Sox Are The Final Team With A Managerial Vacancy

Following yesterday’s announcement that the Royals have hired Matt Quatraro as manager, their AL Central rival on the south side of Chicago is the final team searching for a manager this season, assuming Astros manager Dusty Baker is indeed asked to return for the 2023 season. Chicago’s search for a skipper who can help the team move past Tony La Russa’s tumultuous second run as the team’s manager has lacked the clarity other managerial searches this offseason have possessed. With one of the few known interviewees in Astros bench coach Joe Espada reportedly out of the running, the only candidates known to have received interviews to this point are Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, who also interviewed for vacancies in Kansas City and Miami, and former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. White Sox GM Rick Hahn noted earlier this month that interim manager Miguel Cairo would be interviewed for the position during his end of season press conference.

3. Kodai Senga Eyes Free Agency

NPB star Kodai Senga has been expected to test international free agency this offseason for months now, and according to Jason Coskrey of The Japan Times, the right-hander has officially filed the necessary paperwork with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks to do so. Senga, who will pitch next season at age 30, figures to be one of the more intriguing options in the starting pitching market this offseason. With a phenomenal 1.94 ERA in 2022 and a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball and a splitter FanGraphs sees having “bat-missing action”, Senga figures to be given ample opportunity to establish himself in the big leagues as a quality starter, and at a much cheaper cost than the top flight free agent starters such as Carlos Rodon, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander. That cheaper cost is due to the heightened risk in his profile, however; overseas players are rarely guaranteed to see their talents carry over at the same level in the big leagues, and FanGraphs notes that it’s possible Senga may need to pitch in high-leverage relief in the majors due to the relative weakness of his cutter and slider. Still, Senga figures to generate a great deal of interest among pitching-needy teams this offseason, and his free agency should be closely monitored.

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