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Giants, Matt Chapman Have “Had Conversations” About Potential Extension

By Anthony Franco | August 23, 2024 at 10:17pm CDT

For the second consecutive year, Matt Chapman stands as one of the top impending free agent hitters. Unless he suffers a significant injury in the next few weeks, he is all but assured to opt-out of the final two years and $36MM on his deal with the Giants.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported a couple weeks ago that San Francisco was hopeful of retaining the star third baseman on a new multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras confirmed as much to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, telling her that the sides have had some discussions. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi framed things similarly, telling Slusser the parties have “had conversations” and “active dialogue” on a long-term arrangement.

That’s rather vague terminology that certainly doesn’t suggest anything is imminent. It’s nevertheless confirmation there’s some amount of mutual interest in keeping Chapman in San Francisco. He’s a California native who has a longstanding relationship with skipper Bob Melvin dating back to their time in Oakland.

Chapman hasn’t had any problem acclimating to Oracle Park. He takes a .245/.335/.442 batting line and his customarily strong defensive grades into tonight’s game in Seattle. He’s at 20+ homers for the fifth time in his career with a strong 11% walk percentage. Chapman’s 24.3% strikeout rate is a bit higher than the league mark but would be his lowest rate since 2019. It’s very good all-around production despite a slow start. Chapman limped to a .266 on-base percentage through the end of April. He has been one of the most productive infielders in the majors since then, posting a .253/.355/.461 line with 16 homers dating back to May 1.

It’s the inverse pattern to Chapman’s 2023 campaign. He was arguably the best player in the majors through the season’s first month last year. His offensive numbers plummeted after that and he hit the market with something of a down-arrow trajectory. Chapman had an easy call to decline a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, but he and his camp at the Boras Corporation did not find the money they were seeking.  It wasn’t until the beginning of March that he inked a $54MM guarantee with multiple opt-outs.

Between a signing bonus, his salary, and a buyout (assuming he opts out), Chapman is making $20MM this year. That’s about what he’d have made if he’d taken the QO from Toronto — although the extra two years present more long-term security than the qualifying offer would have provided.

Chapman will presumably try again to land a deal that pushes into nine figures. He’ll play almost all of next season at age 32. It’s difficult but not impossible to pull a $100MM+ deal at that age. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have been four nine-figure deals within the last decade for hitters who were 32 or older. Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact led the way among free agent contracts. Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado signed extensions ranging between $125MM and $170MM in new money on five-year terms.

Those players were all better hitters than Chapman has been. As a plus defender at third base, he provides more value on that side of the ball than all of them, aside from maybe Machado. Teams could be wary about paying for defense into a player’s mid-30s.

A five-year term for Chapman would run through his age-36 season. That’s the point through which Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon were paid on seven-year contracts (both of which have been disasters for the team). Chapman certainly isn’t going to approach Rendon’s $35MM annual salary. Bryant’s $26MM AAV is a more realistic target, albeit on a what’d likely be a four- or five-year term instead of seven.

Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu each signed through age-37 as free agent third basemen. Both guarantees checked in just south of $100MM. Those contracts are a few years old and were both signed after the player declined a qualifying offer, thereby attaching draft compensation. The Giants cannot make Chapman a QO — the CBA prevents a player from receiving more than one in his career — so he’d hit the market entirely unencumbered. Barring some kind of hometown discount, Chapman presumably wouldn’t be interested in forgoing a free agent trip for less than the Donaldson and LeMahieu guarantees.

Alex Bregman leads the impending free agent class at third base. Chapman is the clear #2 option and the class drops off dramatically from there. Last winter’s group was even shallower. Assuming one considers Cody Bellinger primarily an outfielder rather than a first baseman, Chapman’s $54MM guarantee led all infielders.

As Slusser observes, a Chapman extension may need to be San Francisco’s biggest investment under this front office. The Giants have only signed one nine-figure deal since they hired Farhan Zaidi as president of baseball operations during the 2018-19 offseason: last winter’s six-year, $113MM pact for 25-year-old center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. They’ve taken plenty of bigger swings and were a failed physical away from signing Carlos Correa for $350MM, but they’ve yet to actually land a domestic free agent on a long-term deal. They’ve been much more amenable to shorter-term pickups with opt-outs for players whose markets didn’t develop as they’d hoped (e.g. Carlos Rodón, Michael Conforto, Blake Snell, Chapman).

The Giants have around $132MM in guaranteed money for next season. Expected opt-outs for Snell and Chapman would knock that down to roughly $85MM. Lee, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray (assuming he doesn’t opt out this year) and Jordan Hicks are the only players signed beyond next year. That doesn’t include arbitration projections for Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Camilo Doval. Estrada and Yastrzemski are potential trade or non-tender candidates. The Giants should have a good amount of payroll flexibility even if they retain everyone from their arbitration group.

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144 Comments

  1. SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs

    11 months ago

    5 year 100m with an opt out each year

    Reply
    • stymeedone

      11 months ago

      Is that a prediction, or what you would offer?

      1
      Reply
      • case

        11 months ago

        It’s Farhan’s general level of competence.

        Reply
    • Pete'sView

      11 months ago

      No more of those f#cking opt outs until the fourth year.

      2
      Reply
      • Chicken In Philly?

        11 months ago

        5/100 would keep him, so I don’t think opt outs would even be in the conversation.

        Reply
    • Pads Fans

      10 months ago

      6/151.

      Reply
  2. YankeesBleacherCreature

    11 months ago

    Next year’s first CBT threshold goes up to $241MM. The Giants will presumably have $156MM of space. I wonder if Boras will buy Farhan dinner if he inks Snell, Carpenter, and Soto.

    6
    Reply
    • mlb fan

      11 months ago

      “I wonder if Boras will buy”…If Farhan Zaidi signs Soto & Snell I’ll buy him dinner myself, no matter what Scott Boras decides to do. I’m not sure which Carpenter you’re speaking of so I cannot comment on him.

      1
      Reply
      • Pete'sView

        11 months ago

        I think he meant Chapman.

        2
        Reply
  3. Non Roster Invitee

    11 months ago

    This site should be called Giants Major League Trade Rumors.
    This site is wrongly named anyway.

    Reply
    • YankeesBleacherCreature

      11 months ago

      Get in line, sir. NYYMLBTR has first dibs.

      8
      Reply
      • LordD99

        11 months ago

        In the offseason, BlueJaysMLBTR sets up camp.

        4
        Reply
  4. HalosHeavenJJ

    11 months ago

    Heyman shilling a Boras client? I’m shocked.

    9
    Reply
    • Thefrogsaregey

      11 months ago

      Proof he does it for boras clients more than regular? Or, you just hating with no proof?

      2
      Reply
      • mlb fan

        11 months ago

        “Hating with no proof”…you gotta love the morons that label all differing opinions “hate” or “racist”. Great job dodo.

        4
        Reply
  5. Blackpink in the area

    11 months ago

    The Giants need Chapman and he seems like a good fit there. But good gosh considering how long it’s gonna take for him to sign I don’t want to start having discussions about this in August.

    1
    Reply
  6. Guayacon

    11 months ago

    Giants need to fire Farhan and get rid of Melvin lost today’s game because he left Roger to long not the first time he does that very bad managing

    4
    Reply
    • gbs42

      11 months ago

      Excellent run-on sentence.

      9
      Reply
      • RShore05

        10 months ago

        For real

        Reply
  7. Ben K

    11 months ago

    Would they rather try and land Bregman though?

    Assuming he is healthy

    2
    Reply
    • mlbnyyfan

      11 months ago

      Bregman is probably going to the Mets. If somehow Yankees willing to say good bye to DJL I would like Chapman.

      Reply
      • Ben K

        11 months ago

        Mets will probably stick with Vientos and his breakout

        8
        Reply
        • mlb fan

          11 months ago

          “Stick with Vientos”…I’ll buy stock in Mark Vientos over Bregman and Chappy all 5 days of the week. Vientos looks like a keeper and he comes with 5 more years of cheap team control. No way the Mets invest big at 3b with Vientos on the roster.

          5
          Reply
        • sanfranb27

          11 months ago

          I was a Vientos believer last year. Dude should have been the starting DH this year but the Mets panic bought JD Martinez and screwed Vientos out of a 30+ HR season. Also damaged Baty’s development imo.

          1
          Reply
        • User 401527550

          11 months ago

          I was saying the same thing.

          Reply
        • mlb fan

          11 months ago

          @Sanfranb27 & Mets5986??…”Mets panic..saying the same thing”…I guess I’d agree, but who knew Mark Vientos would take off this fast?..I’m sure the Mets didn’t see it coming nor did I.

          Reply
      • User 401527550

        11 months ago

        There is zero chance Bergman is going to the Mets. They have a ton of very good good third base options in their system not to mention the one with a .900 OPS starting for them right now.

        3
        Reply
      • rocky7

        11 months ago

        Really don’t think Bregman is a NY kind of guy….whether that’s the Mets and certainly not the Yankees with Jazz manning the position right now…..the Mets would be crazy to spend big money on a player who’s leaving behind his best years in Houston with Vientos blossoming into a player who’s younger and controllable forward much more cheaply….

        3
        Reply
        • YankeesBleacherCreature

          11 months ago

          Keep Jazz at 3B or 2B. There are Cabrera and Peraza to play utility. I don’t think they release DJL. The Yankees need a 1B as Rizzo’s option will be declined. That’s probably the easiest position on the field to fill without a long-term commitment.

          1
          Reply
        • stymeedone

          11 months ago

          Mets will need someone to play 1B.

          Reply
      • Pickle_Britches

        11 months ago

        Bregman won’t be going to the Mets lol especially when Pete Alonso is gone.

        Reply
    • Pete'sView

      11 months ago

      Ben K — Why not both and play Bregman at ss and move Fitzgerald to 2b?

      Reply
      • Ben K

        11 months ago

        If that’s in their budget, sure. They certainly need all the offense they can get to try and compete with the bats on the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks.

        Reply
  8. outinleftfield

    11 months ago

    Chapman will be going into his age 32 season in 2025 and is being paid $20 million guaranteed this season. The key thing to keep in mind in what he will make going forward is that he is going to go into FA or extension discussions coming off a 6 WAR season.

    Of the players mentioned in the article, only Machado was coming off a season as good as Chapman when he signed and he got 11/350 going into his age 30 season. Chapman will be 2 years older, but he will likely get an AAV that is at least close to the $31.82 million Machado is getting but 2-3 seasons fewer. Maybe 4-5 seasons shorter. .

    Before anyone tries to say that he is not as valuable as Machado, you have to look and see that he has a higher career WAR/162 than Machado did going into his negotiations with the Padres.

    Chapman’s worth is based more on defense than offense, but he is a very good hitter with a career 118 OPS+ and 123 in 2024.

    So what do I think is likely? If he loves SF and wants to stay there, maybe 7/180 to 7/190. That keeps him in a Giants uni through age 38 season and at a relatively affordable $25.7 to $27.5 million AAV.

    If he hits FA and there is open bidding including by the Giants? 8/225 to 8/240.

    If the Giants can convince him to sign a shorter deal, say 5 years, he is going to want and get $30 million AAV.

    1
    Reply
    • DonOsbourne

      11 months ago

      All of your points are valid. But my counter-argument is that the market that allowed Machado to get that contract just doesn’t exist today. What other team would offer Chapman anything close to that? Ultimately, the market is what decides how much a player is worth not historical comps.

      It helps Chapman that each of the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Giants have potential needs at 3B next season, but I don’t think any of those teams considers that their primary need. Beyond those clubs, there are fewer and fewer willing to give out long term deals to players over 30.

      None of this is an indictment of Chapman, just an observation of the current market.

      9
      Reply
      • mlb fan

        11 months ago

        “Observation of the current market”…Excellent, concise analysis. You should consider writing for MLBTRADERUMORS.COM.

        Reply
      • outinleftfield

        11 months ago

        Why would you think the market doesn’t exist? Manfred said that overall revenue for the game is expected to rise this season. There is more money to spend then in 2022 when teams, especially the Padres, were in the midst of potentially losing TV revenue.

        The money is there to sign Chapman.

        Add the Giants to your list of big money teams that have a need at 3B. 5 teams with big money and a need. Those are just the big money teams.

        The Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, and possibly the Astros also have a need. All can afford a $30 million player easily. There are 3 more with a need, but possibly not the money in Nats, Royals, and Tigers. I have just ignored out of hand 3 teams that have a need, but won’t spend the money in the Rays, Marlins, and A’s.

        The current market is the best he could hope for. There is only one player that is competition in the FA market, Bregman. Teams have less worries about TV money and there are 9, possibly 10, teams with both the money and a need at 3B.

        I believe that he is going to get a big contract for all of the reasons I mentioned in my first post and all the market conditioned in this one. We will see.

        I forgot to add that the Angels have a huge hole at 3B where Rendon stands a few games a year when he is healthy, but Arte is not going to eat 2 years of Rendon’s deal to sign Chapman.

        1
        Reply
        • User 401527550

          11 months ago

          Neither player is worth $30 mil a year no matter if you have the money to spend or not.

          2
          Reply
        • outinleftfield

          11 months ago

          Once you use a word like worth without quantifying that worth, I know you are not a serious commenter. I can ignore your future comments about player contracts and not miss anything.

          Chapman is worth more than $54 million this year according to WAR. How do I quantify that? Each point of WAR a player produced in 2023 was worth $9.25 million to contracts signed on the free agent market last offseason.

          Chapman won’t get paid $54 million for 2025, because he will want a longer deal than 1 season and like every player that is 32 years old he is going to see some decline every season for the rest of his career and after the 4th year of his new deal his production is probably going to drop off a cliff.

          So some team is going to pay him $27-30 million AAV over a 7-8 year deal hoping to get a couple of 5 WAR seasons at the beginning of the deal to offset a couple of 1 WAR season at the end with 3-4 seasons of 2-4 WAR in the middle.

          22 WAR over 7 seasons is worth $203.50 million at today’s $9.25 million per point of WAR. Teams are looking to break even on that. That is a $29 million AAV.

          1
          Reply
        • User 401527550

          11 months ago

          Thanks for telling me a bunch of garbage. The WAR stat you used to tell me his worth is complete trash. He is not 5 wins above replacement player. He has an OPS of .770. The league average is usually around .750. He is leading MLB 3b in errors with 14. Your WAR stat is an imaginary stat that is mad up trash. He is vastly over rated. You keep paying players by made up Sabre metric imaginary numbers and real GMs are letting players like him sit on the sidelines of free agency and let desperate GMs over pay for him. He is a 15-20 mil a year player on max 3 year deal at his age.

          6
          Reply
        • Pete'sView

          11 months ago

          Mets6986?? — After watching Chapman this year I can tell you he is NOT overrated. The glove alone is miraculous, his speed and base running is exceptional. But it’s fair to say his offense will not continue anywhere near to it’s current level after 3 years, so the contract must take that into account.

          He may in fact be a “20 mil a year player” as you say, but he will get more and as long as it’s not more than 5 years he may be worth it.

          1
          Reply
        • foppert2

          11 months ago

          Converted !
          Good work, Pete. Impressive man. Love the way he goes about it. Hope he stays.

          Reply
        • Pickle_Britches

          11 months ago

          And Nimmo isn’t worth what he’s getting either lol. Id take Bryan Reynolds any day for much much less. Nimmo isn’t much better than Lamont Wade jr lol

          1
          Reply
        • User 401527550

          11 months ago

          Nimmo is very over paid. I’m not a huge Nimmo fan. Strikeout waiting to happen. Injury waiting to happen.

          1
          Reply
    • Ann Porkins

      11 months ago

      I think you’re greatly over valuing Chapman’s free agency case. Free agent deals pay a premium for the front half and hope the back half aren’t too egregious. Chapman being two years older than Machado is huge in limiting his AAV as those are two premium years lost.

      And Chapman’s mostly solid offensive numbers in recent years are far beneath Machado’s platform years, and offense is ultimately what gets guys paid the big bucks. Chapman’s defense is unlikely to hold up by the end of even a five year deal, at which point any decline in offense will sink his worth.

      For these reasons, I think Chapman will be unlikely to get more than five or six years, and he’ll get far less than the $30M+ that Machado received twice from San Diego. I think a floor of 4/$80M seems easy to clear, and something in the neighborhood of 4/$100M or 5/$120M seems very doable. Anything beyond that would probably require a bidding war, which is far from a certainty given the decreased interest in second-tier free agents in recent years. Teams will throw stupid money at Soto, but guys in their 30’s without guaranteed Star offense will struggle to eclipse lofty deals they could have nabbed five years ago.

      14
      Reply
      • its_happening

        11 months ago

        Reasonable, cainer. Too many people thinking Chapman’s getting $150-mil. The guy who feels fortunate here is Bregman. Argument can be made Bregman has been better than Chapman over the last 6-7 years, and he’ll get paid in a down offensive year (for him) if Chapman gets paid. I’d still target Bregman over Chapman.

        5
        Reply
      • outinleftfield

        11 months ago

        His age is limiting the length of his contract, not the AAV.

        He will be going into free agency coming off a 6 WAR season.

        23% better than league average is not solid, its top 20%.

        Chapman’s defensive numbers are far superior to Machado’s going into his contract negotiations.

        If you think 4/80 is the floor, we really have nothing to talk about. That is what he made this season. He is getting a raise. A huge one. The $25.7 million I mentioned is the absolute floor and that is if he is set on staying in the Bay Area.

        If you think he would settle for 4 or 5 years, we really have nothing to talk about. This will be his last shot at a big contract so he is not settling for less than the maximum length he can get and that is much more than 4-5 years. 7 is the floor.

        See my answer to DonOsbourne. There are 9, possibly 10, teams that will be bidding on him.

        1
        Reply
        • Ann Porkins

          11 months ago

          The thing is, his season so far isn’t wildly superior to his 2023. A modest uptick in offense in a pitcher’s park is likely enough to make teams feel like he’s not in the midst of a steep decline, but Chapman is another year older and on the wrong side of 30. I don’t see how his 2024 results (which I watch every day, as an avid Giants fan) dramatically increase his value from a year ago, where he had to settle for essentially a 1-year $20M deal with two player options that max out at $34M over two years.

          He won’t cost a draft pick from the qualifying offer, which helps his earning power. And he’s performed better than the year prior. But as I said, he’s lost another prime early-30’s season and is just one year removed from a free agent market that was not kind to the second tier of players. I can’t say with any confidence that teams will be willing to dish out anything close to the $200M+ you’re suggesting when a year earlier they wouldn’t give him a quarter of that.

          Perhaps a bidding war could escalate things, as is always on the table. Bergman’s presence atop the third base market could complicate that, but it only takes one team to drive up the bidding for a guy like Chapman. But many of the teams that should be interesting in Chapman in 2025 should have been about as equally interested last winter, so I don’t think the demand is necessarily going to be higher.

          And perhaps most importantly, the free agent market has been suppressed outside of the huge stars like Judge, Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Soto. So many teams have tightened their belts in the wake of uncertainty tied to their regional TV deals. Unless you’re a bonafide star and in your twenties, the last several years have rarely shown teams willing to pay a player like Chapman $25-30M into his late thirties. So yes, I think Chapman getting 4/$80M is a floor that — as I said — he should easily clear. But until the market shows that teams are willing to go back to writing big checks for second- and third-tier free agents, I am not confident Chapman can exceed five years and $100-130M in free agency this winter.

          2
          Reply
        • norcalblue

          11 months ago

          You nailed it cainer. Excellent analysis of both Chapman and the FA process. It surprises me that Giant fans here aren’t more aligned with you. No question he has been an above average performer in 24…slightly. But, at his age, to commit even four years at the AAV he’s gonna want, seems like malpractice to me.

          Assuming he returns, Farhan will find a replacement(s) that will come close to Chapman’s production AND do it for less than $20m. And with no out year commitment. $100 million/4+ year investments need to be reserved for young players with far more upside than Chapman.

          2
          Reply
      • Pads Fans

        10 months ago

        How does it feel to be that wrong?

        Reply
        • norcalblue

          10 months ago

          Thanks for the comment PF.

          It “feels” like an extraordinary overpay to me and very uncharacteristic of Farhan. You are correct, I was wrong in my analysis.

          My suspicion is that Baer is weighing in heavily and that this may be a sign that Farhan is in more trouble than I imagined. Giant faithful are restless and senior management is feeling pressure to appease the base. Could be a sign that Farhan will be replaced.

          1
          Reply
        • its_happening

          10 months ago

          It feels like an overpay because it is.

          Pads Fan insisted $30+ million annually. He shouldn’t come in here telling people they are wrong.

          1
          Reply
    • Simm

      11 months ago

      Machado plays nearly every day for years. That plays a factor. Plus Peter Seidler loved manny and if he opted out last year instead of signing that extension he never would have gotten close to that deal.

      There is value in defense and manny is known has a very good defender. With a far higher offensive ceiling. Plus manny had two closer to prime years left vs Chapman. I could see Chapman signing a 100-125m deal but he won’t come close to manny’s deal in years or aav.

      3
      Reply
      • outinleftfield

        11 months ago

        Machado is the modern day iron man and he has averaged 6 more games per season than Chapman.

        1
        Reply
    • Zonedeads

      11 months ago

      Your whole post is laughable. Chapman is an avg hitter at best, definitely isn’t a very good one and he won’t come close to a 7 year contract or more than 100 million.

      7
      Reply
      • gbs42

        11 months ago

        Zone,

        Chapman has been an above-average hitter every season of his career.

        6
        Reply
        • PoisonedPens

          11 months ago

          And just look at how those two comp deals for 3B, both of whom were better hitters at their peak than Chapman, have worked out.

          Not well. Donaldson dropped off a cliff offensively at 36 and LeMahieu seems to be doing the same right now with a negative WAR at 35.

          Chapman has had one great offensive season, one very good and otherwise it’s been mostly good to above average. A 120 OPS from a starting corner infielder is expected, not outstanding, so even you’re willing to pay a premium for his defense and health, how much more than his current $18M should that premium be?

          2
          Reply
        • Zonedeads

          11 months ago

          Avg – above avg is the same thing to me, he’s not “ very good”.

          2
          Reply
        • outinleftfield

          11 months ago

          Do you really think teams are worried about what happens at the back end of deals? Are you saying teams don’t know that players will drop off after 36?

          Of course they know it. They are counting on the years at the front end being good enough to carry the bad seasons. A 6 WAR season gives the team more than $54 million in value. A 5 WAR season more than $45 million in value.

          Chapman has averaged 6.0 WAR/162. That is among the best 3B ever. by comparison Machado had a 5.4 WAR/162 going into his contract negotiations.

          Chapman has averaged 118 OPS+ which is 18% better than average and an average MLB player is pretty dang good. 118 OPS+ at 3B puts him in the top 6 of active 3B. It is only 8% behind Machado’s OPS+ while his defense is 36% better than Machado’s by DRS and 27% better by OAA.

          When a team signs a long term deal they are looking for a couple of those high end seasons at the front, a few middle of the road seasons, and then will eat a couple of real stinkers of seasons. It’s not about that player being a 5 or 6 WAR player the entire contract. It’s about the team breaking even in value over the length of the contract.

          Reply
    • norcalblue

      11 months ago

      As a Dodger fan, I truly hope Farhan sees it your way and takes your advice oilf. My guess is that Giants will offer an AAV for $30 million at 2-3 years max. I’ve seen nothing this year in Chapman that makes me think Farhan will offer much more than he did last winter.

      2
      Reply
    • case

      11 months ago

      If WAR was a reliable statistic respected by people with advanced math degrees Chapman would have had multiple suitors last off season instead of having to take that last minute offer from the Giants.

      Chapman is defensively better than Machado was but he’s also inconsistent and a far worse hitter. Chapman should generate more interest this offseason but if we’re talking 5+ year contracts around 25-30 mill a year that’s just Farhan bidding against himself.

      2
      Reply
    • Pete'sView

      11 months ago

      outinleftfield — Anything more than 5 years is lunacy. And I love the guy.

      Reply
    • Pads Fans

      10 months ago

      You were pretty close on the money in terms of AAV. He took less years and got 6/150 plus a $1 million signing bonus. .

      Reply
    • Show all 29 replies
  9. Shawn W.

    11 months ago

    .245 gets you $25 million these days

    6
    Reply
    • DodgersBro

      11 months ago

      Shawn

      “.245 gets you $25 million these days”

      Almost as if there’s more to baseball than how many hits a player gets when they don’t walk, get hit by a pitch, sacrifice, etc…

      8
      Reply
    • gbs42

      11 months ago

      A few things BA doesn’t tell you:

      Ability to get on base/not make an out
      Hitting for power
      Defensive ability
      Baserunning skill

      Any comment limited to citing just batting average is severely lacking in analysis.

      5
      Reply
      • PoisonedPens

        11 months ago

        His slugging percentage is .438 and he walks 60-70 times/year and gets 19-27 HR. His OPS hasn’t been above .800 in four seasons.

        So yeah, fairly average for a corner IF. Very good player at his peak, not a great one, and unlikely to maintain current numbers from 32-36 even if he maintains his defensive ability. His numbers line up pretty well with Todd Frazier, whose last season was age 35. As for the people who work for Boras Corp and say Hall of Fame, he’s not even close with numbers likely to soften over the next four years.

        6
        Reply
        • outinleftfield

          11 months ago

          20% above average for 3B the last 4 seasons. Why do you bother to comment?

          1
          Reply
        • norcalblue

          11 months ago

          Well said PP

          1
          Reply
        • PoisonedPens

          11 months ago

          OPS+ is a measure for all offensive positions across the diamond, not the position the player in question plays. So learn how stats work, then comment?

          100 x (OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG – 1)

          Reply
        • JackStrawb

          10 months ago

          Absurd. Chapman is already the 40th best 3Bman in all of MLB history, by JAWs. He’s not quite a HOFer (late start, low peak for a HOFer) but by the time he retires he’ll pretty easily have 3/4 of a HOF career and make the top 30, all time.

          Reply
      • rocky7

        11 months ago

        What….”ability to get on base and not make an out…..it certainly gives you some good keys there….BA is one of several tools to judge a players offensive capabilities to a team looking to acquire a player.

        1
        Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          rocky

          “What….”ability to get on base and not make an out…..it certainly gives you some good keys there”

          Not really.

          I mean, edgy not just look at OBP which actually measures that instead of BA which doesn’t

          1
          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          *edgy = why

          1
          Reply
      • case

        11 months ago

        I’d add performance against playoff caliber pitching. I’m not sure where he’s at now but as an A Chapman was consistently overwhelmed by the league’s better pitchers.

        1
        Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Case

          “as an A Chapman was consistently overwhelmed by the league’s better pitchers.”

          Citation requested

          1
          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          Formal citation denied due to IP copyright of advanced metrics collected by front offices.

          Informal citation, 4 years of watching pretty bad swing and misses against high end breaking pitches.

          1
          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Case

          “Informal citation, 4 years of watching pretty bad swing and misses against high end breaking pitches.”

          So, “pulled it out of your behind”. Got it

          1
          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          GM’s seemed to agree, but it appears they’re no match for “ignorance combined with a penchant for butt stuff”.

          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Case

          “GM’s seemed to agree”

          Please cite your evidence that GM’s agreed specifically that: as an A Chapman was consistently overwhelmed by the league’s better pitchers.

          I mean you don’t have any. So, the question is only do you know you don’t have any and are just trolling or do you actually believe that your fantasies are reality?

          1
          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          I’d tell you to google his playoff OPS, but that’s no way to teach kids critical thinking skills.

          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Case

          I’d tell you to Google sample size and random variation

          The stabilization point (sample size at which the observed data counts more than the regressed data) for OPS is around 350 PA. Chapman has about 1/10 of that. His playoff OPS is all but meaningless.

          *https://blogs.fangraphs.com/525600-minutes-how-do-you-measure-a-player-in-a-year/

          Your attempted insult is noted though

          1
          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          I’d welcome your counter arguments to the observation phase of the scientific method when attempting to determine consensus

          Your insults and butt related metaphors are noted, though

          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          Around 350 PA meets the standard for 97% predictive accuracy? Hardcore!

          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Case

          “I’d welcome your counter arguments to the observation phase of the scientific method ”

          Systematic observation. Not “I watched a few games while drinking a beer”

          “Around 350 PA meets the standard for 97% predictive accuracy? Hardcore!”

          Now do 25 PA

          Your attempt to divert from the topic is also noted

          1
          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          “Systematic observation. Not “I watched a few games while drinking a beer””

          Citation requested?

          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Come on Case

          “I’d add performance against playoff caliber pitching. I’m not sure where he’s at now but as an A Chapman was consistently overwhelmed by the league’s better pitchers.”

          Back up your assertion instead of trying to divert from the topic.

          Or, just say that you don’t actually know if that’s the, uh, case, and you just made it up – we both already know that that’s true.

          1
          Reply
        • EBJ

          11 months ago

          He still is.

          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          Well, you ran into a logical fallacy when attempting to present an internet blog with the confidence of a mathematical proof from a field that is still in the trial and error phase, then rejected the observation based on unfounded speculation

          But hey, we all know what Dodger bros are like!

          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Case

          Which logical fallacy is that

          Also, math is math. If you believe the math is wrong, show me

          You won’t because that level of math is almost certainly above your level of comprehension.

          If I’m go ahead and show me and put me in my place

          All you’ve offered is “trust me bro” and a worthless 25 PA Sample

          If you don’t put up anything of substance in your next message, the conversation is over. No more reward for you for trolling

          1
          Reply
        • case

          11 months ago

          Citations requested :)(:

          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Case

          Nothing of substance in all these comments

          Ciao

          1
          Reply
    • outinleftfield

      11 months ago

      6 WAR gets you $30 million these days. No one pays attention to BA when everything else is elite.

      1
      Reply
    • Show all 29 replies
  10. DodgersBro

    11 months ago

    Muncy is under contract for next season plus a T/O for 2026. And I love Max, but, I wouldn’t mind if the Dodgers looked into Chapman.

    They could use the right-handed bat. They could use the defense.
    They should spend all the Guggenheim money on the team.

    2
    Reply
  11. DMiles5149

    11 months ago

    It’s hysterical in the current climate this guy is gonna make the Hall of Fame one day because of his corner infield defense.

    Reply
    • DodgersBro

      11 months ago

      DN

      What’s hysterical about factoring in defense?

      A third baseman making a play counts as much as a SS making a play, doesn’t it?

      1
      Reply
      • DMiles5149

        11 months ago

        SS defense is much more vital than a corner infield position.

        1
        Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          DMiles

          “SS defense is much more vital than a corner infield position.”

          Only because a SS has more opportunities

          A third baseman saving a run counts the same as a SS saving a run.

          2
          Reply
      • JackStrawb

        10 months ago

        Poor soul. He’s never heard of Brooks Robinson and his 39 dWAR.

        Reply
  12. Zonedeads

    11 months ago

    Chapman is a perfect example of how flawed and useless “War” is.

    5
    Reply
    • Simm

      11 months ago

      Problem with war for me is from a defensive side. It’s similar to ops. Ops values a walk the same as a single and they just aren’t the same. Walks don’t score a runner on second, walks don’t have a guy go from first to third.

      Hitting is much harder for players than playing defense. Need less value from defensive war vs offensive war.

      6
      Reply
      • PoisonedPens

        11 months ago

        Oh yeah, WAR overvalues defense.. I agree totally.

        Chapman averages 2.66 chances per game, so roughly 3X per game does he even touch the ball defensively and has a .958 fielding percentage this year (14 errors) That really shouldn’t be equally weighted to six plate appearances per game in the grand scheme of things.

        Six time Gold Glove winner, not sure how that lines up this year but will likely get another based on his reputation and health.

        Reply
        • rocky7

          11 months ago

          Most likely a team will overpay in both $$$ and time for a player who most likely is on both the decline as he ages offensively and defensively….Age effects bat speed, and increases the potential for injuries that when occurs as a younger guy, puts a player of his age on the IL for weeks if not months……DJL is a great example…..Gold Glover and Batting Champ who pretty much stinks due to age and injuries……

          2
          Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          PP

          “That really shouldn’t be equally weighted to six plate appearances per game in the grand scheme of things.”

          Can you show me the math on that?

          Also that’s not how it works. One defensive chance counts the same the same as une PA

          1
          Reply
        • PoisonedPens

          11 months ago

          We shall see on that whether last year’s contract was an outlier or the start of a market correction. Bregman will be another good test case, but he has some serious post-season pedigree.

          I think most FA-active teams (excluding the Dodgers, of course) are starting to realize you can’t spend $30M at every position without shorting the roster elsewhere, especially now in a time where a competitive team often has to go 8-9 deep in starting pitchers to make it through a season.. See the Braves letting Swanson walk and putting in Arcia for example

          Reply
      • User 401527550

        11 months ago

        None of it considers moving a runner over on an out. Taking extra bases as a base runner and any fundamental winning baseball. Its why run scored is down almost a run and half since they went to more of this Sabre metric geared baseball style baseball. You can see baseball starting to get away from it now with the new rules and GMs realizing they are killing the game.

        1
        Reply
      • DodgersBro

        11 months ago

        Simm

        “Problem with war for me is from a defensive side. It’s similar to ops. Ops values a walk the same as a single and they just aren’t the same”

        Don’t use OPS

        Use wRC+. It values a HR>3B>2B>1B>BB

        1
        Reply
      • JackStrawb

        10 months ago

        @Simm You actually think WAR uses OPS?

        And don’t realize that putting the ball in play leads to thousands of ruinous DPs every year?

        Sigh.

        Reply
        • Simm

          10 months ago

          Where did I say that. I was giving another example of a star that can be flawed

          Reply
    • DMiles5149

      11 months ago

      Tell the Democrats war is useless.

      5
      Reply
    • DMiles5149

      11 months ago

      He’s gonna be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. It’s incredible.

      Reply
      • PoisonedPens

        11 months ago

        Not unless you’re putting Darrell Evans and Josh Donaldson in there first.

        2
        Reply
        • Pickle_Britches

          11 months ago

          If you don’t have at least a 60 war you gotta have 10+ AS appearances along with gold gloves and WS rings. Both of them won’t get in. To hard to tell for Chapman yet. He’s still gotta at least 5 more years yet. Evan Longoria I would bet over Evans and Donaldson. And I would argue David Wright deserves it over both also.

          Reply
        • PoisonedPens

          11 months ago

          Longoria is an interesting case; his big numbers fall just short of some thresholds, most notably hits (1930) and HR (342), 3 All-Star appearances, 3 Gold Gloves. So while respected, he’s right there with Ryan Zimmerman and both those guys are below Graig Nettles numbers-wise. Wright has a 133 OPS+ but two GG and a career WAR under 50. Hall of Very Good?

          1
          Reply
      • User 401527550

        11 months ago

        No he won’t be.

        Reply
    • DodgersBro

      11 months ago

      Zd

      “how flawed and useless “War” is.”

      Spoken like someone who has no idea that they are talking about

      Here’s the irrefutable proof

      “As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86). The line of best fit is y = 1.06 x – 4.61. So, if your team is projected to produce 100 “WAR wins” (47.628 + 52.372 WAR), they would be expected to win about 101 games. While the correlation does create some variance, the line of best fit demonstrates that the ratio of WAR to wins is pretty close to one-to-one, on average.”

      beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlat….

      Of course, to understand that you need the slightest understanding of math.

      To not believe it you need no understanding of math

      Which are you?

      2
      Reply
      • Zonedeads

        11 months ago

        You don’t even know what “irrefutable” means. Having a conversation with you would be a waste of brain cells.

        2
        Reply
        • DodgersBro

          11 months ago

          Zd

          Refute it then

          The floor is yours

          1
          Reply
      • JackStrawb

        10 months ago

        @DodgersBro

        ” (R-squared value of 0.86).”

        C’mon, man, you’re just going to make them angry and nasty with your ‘math’ stuff.

        1
        Reply
  13. tedtheodorelogan

    11 months ago

    5/125. He is hands down the best player on the team and it would seem he actually wants to play for the Giants, which isn’t super common amongst talented professional baseball players. Pay the man.

    3
    Reply
    • User 401527550

      11 months ago

      I hope they do tie up their money on a very over rated player.

      1
      Reply
      • Pickle_Britches

        11 months ago

        Over rated? One of the best defensive 3b in MLB that you can count on playing 150 games and hitting 20+ home runs? They don’t have much options internally and Bregman is a FA but he’s going to cost much more plus a DP.

        Reply
      • Steinbrenner2728

        11 months ago

        “I hope they do tie up their money on a very over rated player.” Honestly, that’s a bit much coming from a supposed Mets fan.

        Reply
        • User 401527550

          10 months ago

          That’s a moronic statement coming from a supposed Yankee fan.

          Reply
    • JackStrawb

      10 months ago

      Maybe. Does he rate to put up 14-16 WAR over the life of the deal? I’d bet against it. He’ll end up with about 6.5 WAR this year, but that’s a real outlier since his mid20s.

      Still, even a 4-3-2-1 WAR decline might be worth it for the Giants, given their woes in signing good players.

      Kinda depends on whether they see the deal hanging up their plans for the team in 2028 and 2029, when they rate to get almost nothing for their 25m AAV.

      Reply
  14. Breck68

    11 months ago

    First let me state that I hope Matt Chapman and Blake Snell stay in San Francisco. But I. My opinion this meeting between Boras and Farhan Zaidi is all that will be. Zaidi will not offer more than 25 million a year for the fear Chapman will accept the contract. Personal I think if Chapman is offered between 5-7 years and 27-29 million a year he will sign. I also think Snell would sign for 6/ 175. I think Ray does not opt out.

    Reply
    • sanfranb27

      11 months ago

      I would hope that this meeting would also be the beginnings of a conversation about Soto’s future. I also wonder if FZ would be like, well keep paying Conforto (also a Boras client) decent money if you convince Soto to come to the Bay. Although I would go on record as saying I believe Soto wants to stay a Yankee (for obvious reasons).

      Reply
      • JackStrawb

        10 months ago

        Boras would be disbarred if he did that and it became public.

        —Never mind that it’s silly. What’s Boras’ cut of something like 12m a year for Conforto? 600k a year?

        Reply
    • JackStrawb

      10 months ago

      You want to give Snell 6/175 based on 9 great starts? Ouch.

      Reply
      • DodgersBro

        10 months ago

        JS

        “You want to give Snell 6/175 based on 9 great starts? Ouch.”

        I’d imagine it’s based on a more than that

        His last 6 years of work, perhaps?

        1
        Reply
  15. CalcetinesBlancos

    11 months ago

    Calm down Scott.

    3
    Reply
    • mlb fan

      11 months ago

      Scott Boras is the best sports agent in history. If you doubt this, just ask Scott Boras or his alter ego, “MickeyTheMod”.

      2
      Reply
  16. positively_broad_st

    11 months ago

    Seems like it the two sides just altered the current contract, they could make it work. Drop all the options for the next three years and guarantee that money. Add in a healthy signing bonus to make up the difference in expected pay for Chapman. Add on another guaranteed year, plus one team option year with a generous buyout, which means more guaranteed money for Chapman and the Giants could also lessen the AAV that way.

    After last off-season, at his age and having an inconsistent bat, I don’t think any team will offer Chapman a contract more than five years (if any of them offer five years at all), especially if Boras is trying to get him at $30M per season. Chapman and Boras are going to have to compromise on some aspect of their bargaining – if they learned anything from last year’s free agent market, that is. Teams are currently bearish on players past the age of 30…

    1
    Reply
  17. User 401527550

    11 months ago

    The most over rated player in baseball. Sign him long term San Fran. Yo deserve him.

    1
    Reply
    • Pickle_Britches

      11 months ago

      Most overrated? Lol don’t be salty his D is much better than David Wrights was. Also Diaz is an overrated closer 20+ mill a year ? Lol id take Classe at 4 mill a year and he’s much better. Diaz over rated over paid.

      Reply
      • User 401527550

        11 months ago

        Your crazy. David Wright was twice the player as him. Diaz is over paid. He wasn’t the conversation. Clase will be paid 20+ mil when he is a free agent. Don’t really know what his salary has to do with anything relevant to the conversation.

        Reply
    • Pete'sView

      11 months ago

      Well, Mr. Met (Mets6986??) that is a most ignorant comment.

      Reply
  18. ZonaNorth

    11 months ago

    Extend Chappy!!!

    1
    Reply
  19. Digdugler

    11 months ago

    I always loved Chappy but I think he hates Shapiro/Atkins and rightfully so.

    Reply
  20. sfjackcoke

    10 months ago

    At the end of the day Chapman remains “a very good player” now re-entering a market where he is behind elite players Soto, Burnes, Snell, Bergman, possibly Alonso. You could argue he’s in a worse position than last year’s positioning but now a year older and still faces a ROY injury risk.

    I say he gets extended, I think he gets an extra year to help with the CBT number + increase his guarantee but the AVV doesn’t break $25M. Cody Bellinger is Chapman’s cautionary tale of “very good players” seeking elite years & $’s and the market saying “NO”.

    Reply
    • JackStrawb

      10 months ago

      @sfjackcoke Behind Alonso? Chapman is the far more valuable player. Alonso is a RHH 1Bman worth 3 wins, if that. Guys like Alonso almost invariably decline savagely in their 30s. He’s a DH at this point, faking 1B. Better than Chapman?

      2024:
      Alonso 2.2 bWAR
      Chapman 5.5 bWAR

      1
      Reply
      • sfjackcoke

        10 months ago

        So I said “possibly” Alonso. He is 2yrs younger than Chapman, Alonso is easier to roster as 1b/DH, and his skill (power) is has more scarcity and has the ability to impact a game every game on the offensive side of ball.

        Chapman is a super well rounded player but his standout skill, his glove, may or may not impact a game the way 4 ABs a game do. The flip side of course is gloves don’t slump.

        Your rationale for why Chapman should be ahead isn’t the way WAR is used in free agency. Let me put it to you another way, if the SFG offered Chapman $150M contract right now, he’d take it, if the NYM offered Alonso the same deal he does not.

        Reply
  21. sfgiantkev1

    10 months ago

    3 years 85 mil. No opt outs.

    Reply
  22. Logjammer D"Baggagecling

    10 months ago

    According to Jeff Passan it’s “six-year, $151 million contract extension”

    Not sure if I’m allowed to post links in the comments.

    Reply

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