For the second consecutive year, Matt Chapman stands as one of the top impending free agent hitters. Unless he suffers a significant injury in the next few weeks, he is all but assured to opt-out of the final two years and $36MM on his deal with the Giants.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported a couple weeks ago that San Francisco was hopeful of retaining the star third baseman on a new multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras confirmed as much to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, telling her that the sides have had some discussions. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi framed things similarly, telling Slusser the parties have “had conversations” and “active dialogue” on a long-term arrangement.
That’s rather vague terminology that certainly doesn’t suggest anything is imminent. It’s nevertheless confirmation there’s some amount of mutual interest in keeping Chapman in San Francisco. He’s a California native who has a longstanding relationship with skipper Bob Melvin dating back to their time in Oakland.
Chapman hasn’t had any problem acclimating to Oracle Park. He takes a .245/.335/.442 batting line and his customarily strong defensive grades into tonight’s game in Seattle. He’s at 20+ homers for the fifth time in his career with a strong 11% walk percentage. Chapman’s 24.3% strikeout rate is a bit higher than the league mark but would be his lowest rate since 2019. It’s very good all-around production despite a slow start. Chapman limped to a .266 on-base percentage through the end of April. He has been one of the most productive infielders in the majors since then, posting a .253/.355/.461 line with 16 homers dating back to May 1.
It’s the inverse pattern to Chapman’s 2023 campaign. He was arguably the best player in the majors through the season’s first month last year. His offensive numbers plummeted after that and he hit the market with something of a down-arrow trajectory. Chapman had an easy call to decline a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, but he and his camp at the Boras Corporation did not find the money they were seeking. It wasn’t until the beginning of March that he inked a $54MM guarantee with multiple opt-outs.
Between a signing bonus, his salary, and a buyout (assuming he opts out), Chapman is making $20MM this year. That’s about what he’d have made if he’d taken the QO from Toronto — although the extra two years present more long-term security than the qualifying offer would have provided.
Chapman will presumably try again to land a deal that pushes into nine figures. He’ll play almost all of next season at age 32. It’s difficult but not impossible to pull a $100MM+ deal at that age. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have been four nine-figure deals within the last decade for hitters who were 32 or older. Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact led the way among free agent contracts. Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado signed extensions ranging between $125MM and $170MM in new money on five-year terms.
Those players were all better hitters than Chapman has been. As a plus defender at third base, he provides more value on that side of the ball than all of them, aside from maybe Machado. Teams could be wary about paying for defense into a player’s mid-30s.
A five-year term for Chapman would run through his age-36 season. That’s the point through which Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon were paid on seven-year contracts (both of which have been disasters for the team). Chapman certainly isn’t going to approach Rendon’s $35MM annual salary. Bryant’s $26MM AAV is a more realistic target, albeit on a what’d likely be a four- or five-year term instead of seven.
Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu each signed through age-37 as free agent third basemen. Both guarantees checked in just south of $100MM. Those contracts are a few years old and were both signed after the player declined a qualifying offer, thereby attaching draft compensation. The Giants cannot make Chapman a QO — the CBA prevents a player from receiving more than one in his career — so he’d hit the market entirely unencumbered. Barring some kind of hometown discount, Chapman presumably wouldn’t be interested in forgoing a free agent trip for less than the Donaldson and LeMahieu guarantees.
Alex Bregman leads the impending free agent class at third base. Chapman is the clear #2 option and the class drops off dramatically from there. Last winter’s group was even shallower. Assuming one considers Cody Bellinger primarily an outfielder rather than a first baseman, Chapman’s $54MM guarantee led all infielders.
As Slusser observes, a Chapman extension may need to be San Francisco’s biggest investment under this front office. The Giants have only signed one nine-figure deal since they hired Farhan Zaidi as president of baseball operations during the 2018-19 offseason: last winter’s six-year, $113MM pact for 25-year-old center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. They’ve taken plenty of bigger swings and were a failed physical away from signing Carlos Correa for $350MM, but they’ve yet to actually land a domestic free agent on a long-term deal. They’ve been much more amenable to shorter-term pickups with opt-outs for players whose markets didn’t develop as they’d hoped (e.g. Carlos Rodón, Michael Conforto, Blake Snell, Chapman).
The Giants have around $132MM in guaranteed money for next season. Expected opt-outs for Snell and Chapman would knock that down to roughly $85MM. Lee, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray (assuming he doesn’t opt out this year) and Jordan Hicks are the only players signed beyond next year. That doesn’t include arbitration projections for Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Camilo Doval. Estrada and Yastrzemski are potential trade or non-tender candidates. The Giants should have a good amount of payroll flexibility even if they retain everyone from their arbitration group.
5 year 100m with an opt out each year
Is that a prediction, or what you would offer?
It’s Farhan’s general level of competence.
No more of those f#cking opt outs until the fourth year.
5/100 would keep him, so I don’t think opt outs would even be in the conversation.
6/151.
Next year’s first CBT threshold goes up to $241MM. The Giants will presumably have $156MM of space. I wonder if Boras will buy Farhan dinner if he inks Snell, Carpenter, and Soto.
“I wonder if Boras will buy”…If Farhan Zaidi signs Soto & Snell I’ll buy him dinner myself, no matter what Scott Boras decides to do. I’m not sure which Carpenter you’re speaking of so I cannot comment on him.
I think he meant Chapman.
This site should be called Giants Major League Trade Rumors.
This site is wrongly named anyway.
Get in line, sir. NYYMLBTR has first dibs.
In the offseason, BlueJaysMLBTR sets up camp.
Heyman shilling a Boras client? I’m shocked.
Proof he does it for boras clients more than regular? Or, you just hating with no proof?
“Hating with no proof”…you gotta love the morons that label all differing opinions “hate” or “racist”. Great job dodo.
The Giants need Chapman and he seems like a good fit there. But good gosh considering how long it’s gonna take for him to sign I don’t want to start having discussions about this in August.
Giants need to fire Farhan and get rid of Melvin lost today’s game because he left Roger to long not the first time he does that very bad managing
Excellent run-on sentence.
For real
Would they rather try and land Bregman though?
Assuming he is healthy
Bregman is probably going to the Mets. If somehow Yankees willing to say good bye to DJL I would like Chapman.
Mets will probably stick with Vientos and his breakout
“Stick with Vientos”…I’ll buy stock in Mark Vientos over Bregman and Chappy all 5 days of the week. Vientos looks like a keeper and he comes with 5 more years of cheap team control. No way the Mets invest big at 3b with Vientos on the roster.
I was a Vientos believer last year. Dude should have been the starting DH this year but the Mets panic bought JD Martinez and screwed Vientos out of a 30+ HR season. Also damaged Baty’s development imo.
I was saying the same thing.
@Sanfranb27 & Mets5986??…”Mets panic..saying the same thing”…I guess I’d agree, but who knew Mark Vientos would take off this fast?..I’m sure the Mets didn’t see it coming nor did I.
There is zero chance Bergman is going to the Mets. They have a ton of very good good third base options in their system not to mention the one with a .900 OPS starting for them right now.
Really don’t think Bregman is a NY kind of guy….whether that’s the Mets and certainly not the Yankees with Jazz manning the position right now…..the Mets would be crazy to spend big money on a player who’s leaving behind his best years in Houston with Vientos blossoming into a player who’s younger and controllable forward much more cheaply….
Keep Jazz at 3B or 2B. There are Cabrera and Peraza to play utility. I don’t think they release DJL. The Yankees need a 1B as Rizzo’s option will be declined. That’s probably the easiest position on the field to fill without a long-term commitment.
Mets will need someone to play 1B.
Bregman won’t be going to the Mets lol especially when Pete Alonso is gone.
Ben K — Why not both and play Bregman at ss and move Fitzgerald to 2b?
If that’s in their budget, sure. They certainly need all the offense they can get to try and compete with the bats on the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks.
Chapman will be going into his age 32 season in 2025 and is being paid $20 million guaranteed this season. The key thing to keep in mind in what he will make going forward is that he is going to go into FA or extension discussions coming off a 6 WAR season.
Of the players mentioned in the article, only Machado was coming off a season as good as Chapman when he signed and he got 11/350 going into his age 30 season. Chapman will be 2 years older, but he will likely get an AAV that is at least close to the $31.82 million Machado is getting but 2-3 seasons fewer. Maybe 4-5 seasons shorter. .
Before anyone tries to say that he is not as valuable as Machado, you have to look and see that he has a higher career WAR/162 than Machado did going into his negotiations with the Padres.
Chapman’s worth is based more on defense than offense, but he is a very good hitter with a career 118 OPS+ and 123 in 2024.
So what do I think is likely? If he loves SF and wants to stay there, maybe 7/180 to 7/190. That keeps him in a Giants uni through age 38 season and at a relatively affordable $25.7 to $27.5 million AAV.
If he hits FA and there is open bidding including by the Giants? 8/225 to 8/240.
If the Giants can convince him to sign a shorter deal, say 5 years, he is going to want and get $30 million AAV.
.245 gets you $25 million these days
Muncy is under contract for next season plus a T/O for 2026. And I love Max, but, I wouldn’t mind if the Dodgers looked into Chapman.
They could use the right-handed bat. They could use the defense.
They should spend all the Guggenheim money on the team.
It’s hysterical in the current climate this guy is gonna make the Hall of Fame one day because of his corner infield defense.
DN
What’s hysterical about factoring in defense?
A third baseman making a play counts as much as a SS making a play, doesn’t it?
SS defense is much more vital than a corner infield position.
DMiles
“SS defense is much more vital than a corner infield position.”
Only because a SS has more opportunities
A third baseman saving a run counts the same as a SS saving a run.
Poor soul. He’s never heard of Brooks Robinson and his 39 dWAR.
Chapman is a perfect example of how flawed and useless “War” is.
Problem with war for me is from a defensive side. It’s similar to ops. Ops values a walk the same as a single and they just aren’t the same. Walks don’t score a runner on second, walks don’t have a guy go from first to third.
Hitting is much harder for players than playing defense. Need less value from defensive war vs offensive war.
Oh yeah, WAR overvalues defense.. I agree totally.
Chapman averages 2.66 chances per game, so roughly 3X per game does he even touch the ball defensively and has a .958 fielding percentage this year (14 errors) That really shouldn’t be equally weighted to six plate appearances per game in the grand scheme of things.
Six time Gold Glove winner, not sure how that lines up this year but will likely get another based on his reputation and health.
Most likely a team will overpay in both $$$ and time for a player who most likely is on both the decline as he ages offensively and defensively….Age effects bat speed, and increases the potential for injuries that when occurs as a younger guy, puts a player of his age on the IL for weeks if not months……DJL is a great example…..Gold Glover and Batting Champ who pretty much stinks due to age and injuries……
PP
“That really shouldn’t be equally weighted to six plate appearances per game in the grand scheme of things.”
Can you show me the math on that?
Also that’s not how it works. One defensive chance counts the same the same as une PA
We shall see on that whether last year’s contract was an outlier or the start of a market correction. Bregman will be another good test case, but he has some serious post-season pedigree.
I think most FA-active teams (excluding the Dodgers, of course) are starting to realize you can’t spend $30M at every position without shorting the roster elsewhere, especially now in a time where a competitive team often has to go 8-9 deep in starting pitchers to make it through a season.. See the Braves letting Swanson walk and putting in Arcia for example
None of it considers moving a runner over on an out. Taking extra bases as a base runner and any fundamental winning baseball. Its why run scored is down almost a run and half since they went to more of this Sabre metric geared baseball style baseball. You can see baseball starting to get away from it now with the new rules and GMs realizing they are killing the game.
Simm
“Problem with war for me is from a defensive side. It’s similar to ops. Ops values a walk the same as a single and they just aren’t the same”
Don’t use OPS
Use wRC+. It values a HR>3B>2B>1B>BB
@Simm You actually think WAR uses OPS?
And don’t realize that putting the ball in play leads to thousands of ruinous DPs every year?
Sigh.
Where did I say that. I was giving another example of a star that can be flawed
Tell the Democrats war is useless.
He’s gonna be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. It’s incredible.
Not unless you’re putting Darrell Evans and Josh Donaldson in there first.
If you don’t have at least a 60 war you gotta have 10+ AS appearances along with gold gloves and WS rings. Both of them won’t get in. To hard to tell for Chapman yet. He’s still gotta at least 5 more years yet. Evan Longoria I would bet over Evans and Donaldson. And I would argue David Wright deserves it over both also.
Longoria is an interesting case; his big numbers fall just short of some thresholds, most notably hits (1930) and HR (342), 3 All-Star appearances, 3 Gold Gloves. So while respected, he’s right there with Ryan Zimmerman and both those guys are below Graig Nettles numbers-wise. Wright has a 133 OPS+ but two GG and a career WAR under 50. Hall of Very Good?
No he won’t be.
Zd
“how flawed and useless “War” is.”
Spoken like someone who has no idea that they are talking about
Here’s the irrefutable proof
“As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86). The line of best fit is y = 1.06 x – 4.61. So, if your team is projected to produce 100 “WAR wins” (47.628 + 52.372 WAR), they would be expected to win about 101 games. While the correlation does create some variance, the line of best fit demonstrates that the ratio of WAR to wins is pretty close to one-to-one, on average.”
beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlat….
Of course, to understand that you need the slightest understanding of math.
To not believe it you need no understanding of math
Which are you?
You don’t even know what “irrefutable” means. Having a conversation with you would be a waste of brain cells.
Zd
Refute it then
The floor is yours
@DodgersBro
” (R-squared value of 0.86).”
C’mon, man, you’re just going to make them angry and nasty with your ‘math’ stuff.
5/125. He is hands down the best player on the team and it would seem he actually wants to play for the Giants, which isn’t super common amongst talented professional baseball players. Pay the man.
I hope they do tie up their money on a very over rated player.
Over rated? One of the best defensive 3b in MLB that you can count on playing 150 games and hitting 20+ home runs? They don’t have much options internally and Bregman is a FA but he’s going to cost much more plus a DP.
“I hope they do tie up their money on a very over rated player.” Honestly, that’s a bit much coming from a supposed Mets fan.
That’s a moronic statement coming from a supposed Yankee fan.
Maybe. Does he rate to put up 14-16 WAR over the life of the deal? I’d bet against it. He’ll end up with about 6.5 WAR this year, but that’s a real outlier since his mid20s.
Still, even a 4-3-2-1 WAR decline might be worth it for the Giants, given their woes in signing good players.
Kinda depends on whether they see the deal hanging up their plans for the team in 2028 and 2029, when they rate to get almost nothing for their 25m AAV.
First let me state that I hope Matt Chapman and Blake Snell stay in San Francisco. But I. My opinion this meeting between Boras and Farhan Zaidi is all that will be. Zaidi will not offer more than 25 million a year for the fear Chapman will accept the contract. Personal I think if Chapman is offered between 5-7 years and 27-29 million a year he will sign. I also think Snell would sign for 6/ 175. I think Ray does not opt out.
I would hope that this meeting would also be the beginnings of a conversation about Soto’s future. I also wonder if FZ would be like, well keep paying Conforto (also a Boras client) decent money if you convince Soto to come to the Bay. Although I would go on record as saying I believe Soto wants to stay a Yankee (for obvious reasons).
Boras would be disbarred if he did that and it became public.
—Never mind that it’s silly. What’s Boras’ cut of something like 12m a year for Conforto? 600k a year?
You want to give Snell 6/175 based on 9 great starts? Ouch.
JS
“You want to give Snell 6/175 based on 9 great starts? Ouch.”
I’d imagine it’s based on a more than that
His last 6 years of work, perhaps?
Calm down Scott.
Scott Boras is the best sports agent in history. If you doubt this, just ask Scott Boras or his alter ego, “MickeyTheMod”.
Seems like it the two sides just altered the current contract, they could make it work. Drop all the options for the next three years and guarantee that money. Add in a healthy signing bonus to make up the difference in expected pay for Chapman. Add on another guaranteed year, plus one team option year with a generous buyout, which means more guaranteed money for Chapman and the Giants could also lessen the AAV that way.
After last off-season, at his age and having an inconsistent bat, I don’t think any team will offer Chapman a contract more than five years (if any of them offer five years at all), especially if Boras is trying to get him at $30M per season. Chapman and Boras are going to have to compromise on some aspect of their bargaining – if they learned anything from last year’s free agent market, that is. Teams are currently bearish on players past the age of 30…
The most over rated player in baseball. Sign him long term San Fran. Yo deserve him.
Most overrated? Lol don’t be salty his D is much better than David Wrights was. Also Diaz is an overrated closer 20+ mill a year ? Lol id take Classe at 4 mill a year and he’s much better. Diaz over rated over paid.
Your crazy. David Wright was twice the player as him. Diaz is over paid. He wasn’t the conversation. Clase will be paid 20+ mil when he is a free agent. Don’t really know what his salary has to do with anything relevant to the conversation.
Well, Mr. Met (Mets6986??) that is a most ignorant comment.
Extend Chappy!!!
I always loved Chappy but I think he hates Shapiro/Atkins and rightfully so.
At the end of the day Chapman remains “a very good player” now re-entering a market where he is behind elite players Soto, Burnes, Snell, Bergman, possibly Alonso. You could argue he’s in a worse position than last year’s positioning but now a year older and still faces a ROY injury risk.
I say he gets extended, I think he gets an extra year to help with the CBT number + increase his guarantee but the AVV doesn’t break $25M. Cody Bellinger is Chapman’s cautionary tale of “very good players” seeking elite years & $’s and the market saying “NO”.
@sfjackcoke Behind Alonso? Chapman is the far more valuable player. Alonso is a RHH 1Bman worth 3 wins, if that. Guys like Alonso almost invariably decline savagely in their 30s. He’s a DH at this point, faking 1B. Better than Chapman?
2024:
Alonso 2.2 bWAR
Chapman 5.5 bWAR
So I said “possibly” Alonso. He is 2yrs younger than Chapman, Alonso is easier to roster as 1b/DH, and his skill (power) is has more scarcity and has the ability to impact a game every game on the offensive side of ball.
Chapman is a super well rounded player but his standout skill, his glove, may or may not impact a game the way 4 ABs a game do. The flip side of course is gloves don’t slump.
Your rationale for why Chapman should be ahead isn’t the way WAR is used in free agency. Let me put it to you another way, if the SFG offered Chapman $150M contract right now, he’d take it, if the NYM offered Alonso the same deal he does not.
3 years 85 mil. No opt outs.
According to Jeff Passan it’s “six-year, $151 million contract extension”
Not sure if I’m allowed to post links in the comments.