The past few years have been challenging for right-hander Kyle Hendricks but he’s not thinking about stepping away from the game. He tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic that he “100 percent” plans to continue his career next year. “Absolutely,” Hendricks said. “I’ll take a step back (once the season ends to) reevaluate and refocus, but I definitely would love to keep pitching.”
Hendricks is slated to reach free agency for the first time this winter. He and the Cubs signed a four-year, $55.5MM extension in March of 2019, with that pact also containing a 2024 club/vesting option. That deal came amid the strongest stretch of the righty’s career. From 2014 to 2020, he tossed over a thousand innings with a 3.12 earned run average, 20.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 47.5% ground ball rate. On top of that, he also made a bunch of postseason starts for the Cubs, including five outings with a 1.42 ERA for the curse-breaking 2016 team.
Things haven’t been as smooth since then, however. In 2021, his strikeout rate dropped to 16.7% and his ERA climbed to 4.77. In 2022, he made 16 starts with a 4.80 ERA before a capsular tear in his right shoulder put him on the injured list. He didn’t require surgery but was out of action until late May 2023.
He was able to get back on track a bit from there. He made 24 starts in that 2023 season with a 3.74 ERA. His strikeouts were still down at 16.1%, but he lowered his walk rate to a tiny 4.7% clip and got grounders on 46.3% of balls in play.
That was strong enough to convince the Cubs to pick up their $16.5MM club option for the 2024 season, a move that looks regrettable in hindsight. Hendricks is slogging through the worst year of his career, which even got him moved to the bullpen for parts of May and June. He currently has a 6.25 ERA in 118 innings over 22 starts and five relief appearances.
The numbers under the hood perhaps provide some hope for a bounceback. His 16.1% strikeout rate is an exact match for last year. His 7.7% walk rate is up relative to 2023 but still right around league average. He is still elite at limiting damage, with Statcast putting him in the 98th percentile in terms of average exit velocity and 86th percentile in terms of hard hit rate. His 63.5% strand rate is the worst of his career and well below league average. Metrics like his 5.17 FIP and 4.74 SIERA suggest he hasn’t been as bad as his ERA would suggest.
His market will naturally be softened by his track record over the past few years, and since he’s turning 35 years old this winter, but teams always need innings and there should be some interest. Beyond his performance, Hendricks has a strong reputation as a clubhouse leader and thoughtful player, earning the nickname “The Professor”.
Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, both in their mid-30s and coming off middling seasons, each secured eight-figure deals in the most recent offseason. Gibson got a $13MM guarantee and Lynn $11MM. Other vets like Martín Pérez, Wade Miley and James Paxton got guarantees a bit below that, each of them in the $7-9MM range.
What uniform Hendricks dons next year will be determined in the months to come, but it’s possible that he plays for a team other than the Cubs for the first time. Drafted by the Rangers, he was acquired as a prospect in the July 2012 trade that sent Ryan Dempster to Texas and has been with the Cubs since then.
Chicago’s 2025 rotation currently projects to include Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Wicks, with guys like Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian also in the mix. Prospect Cade Horton hasn’t pitched since late May due to a subscapularis strain but there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be healthy by next year.
It might be difficult to find a spot for Hendricks in there, despite his strong reputation in the organization. Perhaps that will lead him away from Wrigley, which would be a symbolic end of an era for the Cubs. Hendricks is the last player from the 2016 champions still with the club.
DoodooBean Redux
Why couldnt he have planned to pitch this season?
Captainmike1
Hey
He won a whole 4 games !
Unclemike1525
4 Million a win. Veritable bargain.
hiflew
It’s not that bad. That’s about what the White Sox paid per win for the entire team this year.
Dumpster Divin Theo
See what you did there
CCooper8920
I wonder if he’ll sign with SF; the Giants have had a lot of success sign free agent pitchers who aren’t at the top of the market
Datashark
If Farhan remains that could a FACT.
Bauer? But I Hardly Know Her!
If they can’t fix him, off to the Angels.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
The Professor is one of my favorite players, but I don’t see any team offering him a guaranteed major league contract.
Captainmike1
Maybe a Mexican team ?
Very Barry
We are more than willing to bring Hendricks to the White Sox on the South Side of town. Let’s see if we can’t get this guy turned around, and flipped to a contender for a couple of kids by the trade deadline. Just the type of opportunity we are looking for to add to our stash of kids. I would even be willing to give him a two-year deal. Year 1 = league minimum. Year 2 $5 million (team option). This will enhance his trade value even more if we add a year of team control.
Bucket Number Six
Should call yourself Very Jerry.
hiflew
I think he is accomplished enough that he will get a make good deal by a team in rebuild mode. The White Sox make a lot of sense, but I could also see the Marlins or the Rays involved in a cheap one year deal.
citizen
cubs going to let hendricks walk. Since hendricks himself walked too many.
Last player left on the cubs roster from the world series team.
Unclemike1525
As long as it isn’t with the Cubs be my guest.
mike127
Yes—only if it’s with a team that visits Wrigley next season so he gets his video tribute, his standing ovations and the respect he deserves.
Kyle, do not sign with an American League team that came here this season.
Unclemike1525
I swear if Counsell brings Smyly into another game the Cubs aren’t leading by ten runs I’m gonna need a new TV.
LetTheGoodTimesROFL
Dude keep in mind you’re just a fan. I’m just as disappointed as the next person but if you’re destroying your TV over this you need counseling
Fred K. Burke
How dare you UncleMike second guess the highest paid manager in MLB. Just don’t hurt yourself or anyone else when you destroy that TV.
Captainmike1
I think he should give 2025 to the cubs as a free year to make up for this season
thickiedon
That 4 yr $55MM deal in 2019 would be an $80MM deal currently
rememberthecoop
Not a bad career for an 8th round draft pick…
WhiteSx2024
I hear Japan is looking for guys who are done in they’re careers. Nope maybe las vagas Colorado, Miami, Washington, Independent Mexican league
Don'tBeDumb
Any guys that are done careers can go to Japan this guy hears
alstott40
perfect rays reclamation project
seth3120
Obviously I’m in the minority but I think he’s a rebound candidate. Not to his heyday but 4-5 starter. He’s not a guy who was throwing upper 90s and lost his fastball. He needs to find his command and that’s a possibility. I think it’ll need to be for a non contender or he’d have to be humble and work his way up from the minors if he can get his consistency back.
holecamels35
Why do I see him going somewhere like the Rockies or White Sox? Seems right up their alley.
Acoss1331
I can see the White Sox signing Kyle, give him an opportunity to bounce back with a team going nowhere next year, and then flip him at the deadline.
Amex
The Mets should get him next season.
0523me
Yo también.
– Bartolo Colon
msqboxer
He’ll sign with a contender as a 4th/5th starter on a 1 year with option $25M deal.
Thomar
Perfect signing for Red Sox..cheap and ineffective
Slibb
Already dreading seeing him in a Pirates uniform next year. Someone kill me now (in game).
PapaBear562
I love Hendricks, and he’s meant a lot to the Cubbies during his time there. But there comes a time when the cord needs to be cut. The Cubs need good relief pitching, which is the biggest failure the club experienced this year. They had over 25 blow saves which, if that number was half that, would mean the Cubs would be in playoff contention right now. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.
Eatdust666
Yes, they would in fact be in playoff contention right now if it was half that number.
Phree4u
Not necessarily, you can blow a save multiple times a game, and you can also win a game in which you blew the save opportunity.
Would be interesting if someone had time to go through all those statistics and see what the actual number would be.
Citizen1
There was a site called hosted stats which had all the ap box scores and put in 1 run , night, grass, mlb rank in hits, etc. Gone now
Ray Epps
I would of loved to see him get 100 wins as a Cub he is at 97.