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Free Agent Profile: Max Kepler

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At the start of the offseason, MLBTR took a look at the Top 50 Free Agents for this offseason. There were a handful of players that we considered for the list but who just missed, getting relegated to the Honorable Mentions section. One of those was Max Kepler.

Kepler, 32 in February, is a guy who does a lot of things well but doesn’t really stand out in any one particular area. On offense, he has a bit of pop but not too much. He did hit 36 home runs in 2019, but in hindsight, he may have been one of the beneficiaries of the juiced ball season. His career high apart from that is 24. His strikeout rate usually finishes somewhere in the vicinity of 20%, with a career rate of 18.6%. League average is usually in the 22-23% range in this era of baseball. His 9.7% walk rate is also a bit better than par, which is often 8-9%.

Put that all together and Kepler has a .237/.318/.429 career batting line and 102 wRC+, indicating he’s been 2% better than league average overall. He’s been a bit better over the past six seasons, with a .240/.320/.436 line and 107 wRC+. He could perhaps get those numbers up if shielded from lefties more often, as he has hit .243/.326/.452 against righties in his career for a 111 wRC+, compared to a .221/.292/.363 line and 78 wRC+ against lefties.

Defensively, his contributions have been quite strong. In over 7,000 right field innings, he has accrued 48 Defensive Runs Saved and 57 Outs Above Average. From 2016 to the present, he’s actually the MLB leader in Outs Above Average in right field with 57, just ahead of Mookie Betts and his 54. DRS likes Betts far more, giving him 129 for that same time frame, but Kepler is fourth behind Betts, Aaron Judge and Jason Heyward.

Kepler also has over 1,000 innings in center field with positive ratings there as well. No club is going to sign him as a primary center fielder now, given his age and that he hasn’t played there since 2022, but perhaps some teams would consider him an emergency option there.

These various factors combine to make a guy who doesn’t overwhelm but also rarely disappoints. FanGraphs has never given him more than 3.9 wins above replacement in a season, which was his aforementioned 36-homer season. Otherwise, his career high is 2.8 fWAR. But he has nine straight seasons of being worth at least 1.0 fWAR, with seven of those 1.5 or higher, six worth at least 1.8 and five worth at least 2 wins.

What’s working against Kepler is that he just wrapped up a poor walk year. His missed time due to issues in both of his knees, getting into just 105 games and hitting only eight home runs. His 5.5% walk rate was a career worst by a few percentage points. His still racked up four OAA but DRS had him at exactly league average. Due to that rough platform, the MLBTR staff felt Kepler would be limited to a one-year deal in the $6-10MM range.

What could work for Kepler is that the market isn’t overflowing with his combination of skills. Looking at the lefty-swinging free agents, Juan Soto is obviously miles above the field. Switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar are both coming off good years at the plate but both are considered poor defenders. Joc Pederson is a lefty who crushes the ball but he is also bad in the field and was limited strictly to designated hitter duties in 2024. Hyeseong Kim is expected to be a light-hitting utility guy at the MLB level. Michael Conforto is perhaps the closest free agent to Kepler on the market, though slightly inverted. Conforto’s offense and defense have both been close to league average in recent years, but with his bat slightly more attractive than his glove.

For clubs looking for a lefty-swinger who can play the field without destroying the lineup, there aren’t too many options. On top of that, Kepler shouldn’t cost too much. His 2024 was rough but the year prior saw him hit 24 home runs and slash .260/.332/.484 for a 123 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. He could perhaps appeal to contenders or rebuilding clubs that would hope for him to bounce back and turn himself into a trade candidate. Teams like the Mets, Mariners, Blue Jays, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Marlins and others are possible landing spots.

Braves Sign Connor Gillispie To Major League Deal

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The Braves announced that they have signed right-hander Connor Gillispie to a one-year, non-guaranteed contract. Financial terms were not disclosed. They have multiple openings on their 40-man roster and won’t need to make a corresponding move. Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link) reported the deal prior to the official announcement.

Gillispie, 27, just made his major league debut in 2024. Though he was drafted by the Orioles in 2019 and was with them through the 2023 season, the Guardians nabbed him in the minor league phase of last year’s Rule 5 draft. Cleveland selected him to the big league roster in August and he tossed eight innings for them down the stretch, allowing two earned runs. Last week, the Guardians added four players to their roster to protect them from this year’s Rule 5, with Gillispie designated for assignment to open a spot.

He was later non-tendered and became a free agent without being exposed to waivers, with Atlanta quickly offering him a roster spot to get him off the market. The brief major league debut wasn’t much to go on, so Atlanta has presumably been enticed by his minor league work. Gillispie tossed 113 1/3 Triple-A innings in a swing role this year, making 15 starts and 12 relief appearances. He allowed 4.05 earned runs per nine innings, striking out 25% of opponents against a 10.1% walk rate while surrendering 22 home runs.

That’s roughly similar to the work he did in the Orioles’ system. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 292 2/3 innings in the minors, starting 50 of his 73 appearances. He had a 4.15 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate in that time while allowing 48 long balls.

Perhaps Atlanta will try to move Gillispie to the bullpen on a more permanent basis, as he posted a 4.68 ERA as a starter this year but a 2.63 mark in relief. However it plays out, Gillispie still has options and just a few days of service time, meaning he can theoretically be cheaply retained well into the future if he continues to hang on to his roster spot. Atlanta’s pitching staff just lost Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and John Brebbia to free agency, while Joe Jiménez recently underwent knee surgery and could miss the entire 2025 season.

Braves, José Devers Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves and infielder José Devers have agreed to a minor league deal, per Aram Leighton of Just Baseball (X link) and confirmed by MLBTR. The Rep 1 Baseball client will receive an invite to major league spring training.

Devers, 25 next week, was once a notable prospect but hasn’t been able to live up to that hype just yet. An international signing of the Yankees, he was traded to the Marlins as part of the December 2017 trade that brought Giancarlo Stanton to the Bronx. The cousin of Rafael Devers, José went on to garner attention to due his athletic defense and strong contact abilities. Baseball America ranked him as one of the top 15 prospects in Miami’s system in four straight years from 2019 to 2022.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in December of 2020 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, but a significant shoulder issue detailed much of his next two seasons. He only played 33 games between the majors and minors in 2021 and underwent surgery in August of that year to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The recovery lingered into the next season as he only played 60 minor league games in 2022. He cleared waivers and was outrighted off Miami’s roster at the end of the 2022 season.

He was stuck in Triple-A in 2023 but had a decent campaign there, striking out in just 14.8% of his plate appearances while slashing .276/.352/.421 for a 108 wRC+. But in 2024, he spent a bit of time on the minor league injured list and only got into 54 Triple-A games, hitting .239/.304/.362 for a 74 wRC+. He was briefly added to the club’s major league roster as they were playing out a lost season. He has a line of .244/.300/.311 in just 50 major league plate appearances thus far. He wasn’t on the 40-man at season’s end and was able to elect free agency.

For Atlanta, there’s little risk in a minor league deal. Devers has played all four infield positions, primarily up the middle. The club has Ozzie Albies cemented at second base but Orlando Arcia is on shakier ground at shortstop. Nick Allen, Luke Williams and Nacho Alvarez Jr. are on the roster but Devers gives them a bit of non-roster depth.

Devers’ prospect stock has faded of late but he’s still relatively young and has been hurt for many of his recent challenges. If he can stay healthy and get back on track, he still has an option year and barely a year of service time, meaning he can theoretically be cheaply retained well into the future if he can nab a roster spot.

Cardinals Expect To Field Interest In Steven Matz This Offseason

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As the Cardinals look to trim payroll and shift towards focusing on young players in 2025, they’ve widely been expected to look to trade a number of their more expensive, veteran players. It seems as though that won’t come to pass with Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, both of whom seem unlikely to waive their no-trade clauses to facilitate a move elsewhere. Third baseman Nolan Arenado is seemingly open to a move, however, though his own no-trade protection means that he would need to approve of any deal as well. One veteran player who lacks no-trade protection, however, is southpaw Steven Matz. That could leave the Cardinals motivated to part with him this winter, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests that the club plans to “field interest” on both Matz and closer Ryan Helsley this winter.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed Helsley’s trade candidacy earlier this month, and previous reporting from Goold suggested that the Cardinals figure to set a high asking price for their closer. By contrast, Matz figures to be a more affordable player for teams to acquire who the Cardinals figure to be more motivated to move. The 33-year-old is entering the final year of his contract in 2025 and is due $12.5MM for next season. By offloading Matz’s contract, St. Louis’s payroll projection for next year (courtesy of RosterResource) would drop from just under $147MM to just $134MM. After the club spent $183MM on payroll in 2024, that type of drop off should be more than enough to accomplish their goal of reallocating funds away from payroll into their player development apparatus, and could even open the door to the club making some modest upgrades in free agency, whether that be a reunion with veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson or bringing a new arm into the organization.

While the Cardinals would surely like to offload the final year of Matz’s contract, that may be easier said than done. The lefty has had an up-and-down tenure with St. Louis since signing with the club prior to the 2022 season. He’s struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness throughout his time there, totaling just 197 1/3 innings of work during that time. Of his 52 appearances with the Cardinals, he’s started 34 while pitching out of the bullpen for 18.

His results have been roughly league average overall when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound, with a 4.47 ERA (95 ERA+), a 4.01 FIP, and a 21.9% strikeout rate. That production has been somewhat unsteady, however, with most of it coming during his mostly-healthy 2023 season. That year, Matz posted a 3.84 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.75 FIP in 105 innings of work. That solid work is sandwiched between two campaigns that saw him post an ERA north of 5.00. That includes this past season, where Matz struggled to a 5.08 ERA with a similar 4.88 FIP in 44 1/3 innings. He struck out just 17.4% of opponents this past year while posting a 7.9% walk rate that was his worst since 2018.

That’s not a particularly enticing body of work for potential trade partners, though that doesn’t mean Matz is impossible to trade. Notably, Matz has pitched substantially better in his relief outings with the Cardinals than he has during his time in the rotation. In 163 frames for the club as a starter, Matz has posted a 4.91 ERA. Meanwhile, his 33 1/3 innings as a member of the bullpen saw him post a much more intriguing 2.43 ERA. While the lefty’s overall results and durability as a member of the rotation leave his contract with little if any surplus value, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a club intrigued by his work out of the bullpen acquire him to act as a versatile reliever capable of stepping into the rotation if necessary. It’s a role some pitchers such as Nick Martinez, Jakob Junis, Spencer Turnbull, and Michael Lorenzen have found success with in recent years, and a team that values that sort of flexibility on their pitching staff like the Giants or Rangers could be a good fit for the lefty’s services.

Tigers Sign Ricky Vanasco To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: Per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Vanasco’s minor league deal comes with an invite to big league spring training as well as a $925K salary when in the majors.

11/28: The Tigers have signed right-hander Ricky Vanasco to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The Full Circle Sports Management client has been assigned to Triple-A Toledo for now but will presumably receive an invite to major league spring training.

Vanasco, 26, finished the 2024 season with the Tigers. They acquired him from the Dodgers in a July cash deal and largely kept him in the minors on optional assignment, only giving him two major league appearances. Detroit then non-tendered him last week, sending him to free agency without exposing him to waivers, which allowed them to bring him back via this deal.

The righty now has just four major league appearances under his belt, two of those coming with the Dodgers prior to the two he made with the Tigers. That’s obviously not a large enough sample to draw any conclusions from, but there are other reasons why the Tigers are interested.

Vanasco was drafted by the Rangers back in 2017 and put up some good numbers in the lower levels of the minors. Baseball America ranked him that club’s #12 prospect going into 2020. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in September of that year and missed the entire 2021 season. Still, the Rangers didn’t want him to be left exposed in the Rule 5 draft, so they added him to their 40-man roster in November of 2021.

Recovered from his surgery, he was back on the mound in 2022. He made 23 starts that year between High-A and Double-A, throwing 92 1/3 innings with a 4.68 earned run average. His 28.9% strikeout rate was strong but he also gave out walks at a 12.7% clip. In 2023, knee surgery forced him to miss a few months but he had some encouraging results while switching to a relief role. He tossed 32 1/3 innings that year with a 2.78 ERA, 31.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate, getting acquired by the Dodgers midway through that year.

In 2024, as mentioned, he made four major league appearances between the Dodgers and Tigers. Most of his time was spent in Triple-A, where he logged 40 1/3 innings with a 2.45 ERA. His 26.4% strikeout rate was good but the 16.5% walk rate very much on the high side.

The lack of control could make Vanasco a bit of a project for the Tigers, but there’s no real risk on a minor league deal and there could be long-term benefits if it works out. Vanasco is out of options but has less than a year of service time and is still relatively young. That means he could be cheaply retained for years into the future if things click for him and he gets a roster spot.

Multiple Teams Expressing Interest In Sócrates Brito

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Numerous MLB teams have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Sócrates Brito, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman’s report did not specify which teams might be interested. Brito has spent the last three seasons with the Kia Tigers of the KBO.

Brito, now 32, was once a well-regarded prospect in the Diamondbacks system. He was chosen as the organization’s minor league Minor League Player of the Year in 2015, and most sources considered him one of the team’s top 10 prospects entering the 2016 season. However, he was never able to translate his minor league success to the majors. Over 99 MLB games with the D-backs and Blue Jays from 2015-19, Brito slashed .176/.216/.309 in 218 trips to the plate. Despite his elite sprint speed and solid outfield defense, he produced -0.6 FanGraphs WAR.

After a rough year at Triple-A with the Yankees in 2021, Brito signed a contract with the Kia Tigers and packed his bags for Korea. It turned out to be the right decision. He was named a KBO All-Star in each of his first two seasons with the Tigers. While he did not make the All-Star team in 2024, he set new career highs in home runs, runs scored, and RBI. He also helped his club win the Korean Series for the 12th time in franchise history and the first time since 2017. All told, Brito has slashed .302/.352/.491 with 63 home runs, 40 stolen bases, and an .843 OPS over three seasons in the KBO.

Heyman’s report does not necessarily suggest that Brito is planning (or even trying) to return to affiliated ball. He has enjoyed a successful career so far in Korea, in terms of individual accolades, team accomplishments, and financial compensation. His contract for the 2024 season guaranteed him $800K and contained an additional $400K in incentives. If he can land a similar deal from the Kia Tigers for 2025, one can see why he wouldn’t be interested in returning to North America for anything less than a guaranteed contract. Despite his excellent performance in the KBO, his uninspiring MLB track record could scare off potential suitors from offering such a guarantee.

William Cuevas Re-Signs With KT Wiz

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Right-handed pitcher William Cuevas is coming back for another year with the KT Wiz of the KBO.  His contract, announced by the team and relayed over X by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net and Jiheon Pae, is worth $1.5MM in US dollars. The 2025 season will be the righty’s seventh with the club.

Cuevas, now 34, originally signed with the Red Sox as an 18-year-old international free agent in 2009. He would eventually bounce from the Red Sox, to the Tigers, to the Marlins, and back to the Red Sox, appearing in big league games for Boston and Detroit. He pitched to an 8.06 ERA and 4.92 SIERA in 22 1/3 MLB innings.

After the 2018 season, the Red Sox released Cuevas so he could pursue an opportunity in the KBO. From 2019-22, he pitched for the Wiz on a series of one-year contracts. However, he was released early in the 2022 season after suffering an elbow injury. Fortunately for Cuevas, the issue proved not to be too serious. He was able to make an appearance for the Diablos Rojos del México of the Mexican League later that year.

Cuevas returned to affiliated ball the following season, signing a minor league contract with the Dodgers in April 2023. He pitched 44 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City, striking out 43, walking 20, and giving up 13 home runs, resulting in a 6.14 ERA and 7.47 FIP. On June 8, the Dodgers released Cuevas, allowing him to re-sign with the Wiz the next day. While his performance at Triple-A wasn’t exactly impressive, he clearly did enough to prove to his former club that his elbow was back to full strength. Indeed, he put up a 2.60 ERA and 2.79 FIP in 114 1/3 IP over the remainder of the KBO season.

Fresh off his successful 2023 campaign, Cuevas earned another contract from the Wiz. He didn’t look nearly as sharp in 2024 as he did the year before, producing a 4.10 ERA and 4.39 FIP. Still, he was durable and reliable, giving the team 31 starts and 173 1/3 IP. Only two KBO pitchers threw more innings this past season, and only one made more starts. Thus, it comes as little surprise that the Wiz have welcomed Cuevas back once again for 2025.

Cubs To Sign Brooks Kriske

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Right-handed pitcher Brooks Kriske has agreed to a contract with the Cubs, the 30-year-old announced himself on his Instagram and X accounts. It is presumably a minor league deal, although the team has not yet confirmed the move and further details have not been revealed.

After growing up a Cubs fan, Kriske was selected by the Yankees in the 2016 draft. Although he was never a top prospect, the righty made an impressive comeback from early-career Tommy John surgery and quickly rose through the ranks of the minor leagues. In August 2018, he was still pitching at Low-A after losing so much development time to injury. Yet, by July 2020, he was pitching for the big league club. Heading into the 2021 season, he earned a spot on the Yankees prospect lists at both FanGraphs (no. 34) and Baseball America (no. 28).

Unfortunately, the big leagues have never been kind to Kriske. Over parts of two seasons in the Bronx, he gave up 20 runs (19 earned) in 11 1/3 innings, good for a 15.09 ERA. He allowed six home runs and walked more than 20% of the batters he faced. He also threw seven wild pitches – four of which came in the same inning. Following a particularly poor outing in September 2021, Kriske was optioned to Triple-A and designated for assignment a few days later.

The Orioles must have liked what they saw when Kriske held them scoreless and hitless across two appearances in 2020, striking out four of the eight batters he faced. They scooped him up off of waivers, and he pitched in four more games down the stretch. Yet, his results weren’t much better than they were in New York. While Kriske didn’t walk any batters, he gave up five runs on two homers in 3 1/3 innings of work. By the end of the 2021 campaign, he had a career 14.40 ERA, 5.11 SIERA, and -0.8 FanGraphs WAR.

Baltimore released Kriske that fall, allowing him to sign with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of NPB. A relatively successful season in Japan (21 IP, 2.57 ERA, 11.1 K/9) earned him a minor league deal with the Royals in December 2022. However, Kriske struggled upon his return to affiliated ball. He pitched to a 5.52 ERA and 4.29 FIP over 29 1/3 innings at Triple-A Omaha. His 4.05 ERA over 6 2/3 MLB innings represented an improvement, but his 16% walk rate and 5.30 SIERA showed a pitcher who was still struggling to retire major league batters. Partway through the 2023 season, he was granted his release to pursue another opportunity in Japan, this time with the Saitama Seibu Lions.

Once again, Kriske looked much sharper overseas, putting up a 1.93 ERA in 14 innings with the Lions over the remainder of the 2023 campaign. He decided to come back stateside last winter, inking a minor league pact with the Reds. However, despite a strong performance in spring training (6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 8 K, 1 BB) and solid numbers at Triple-A Louisville (49 1/3 IP, 3.10 ERA, 36.7 K%, 4.06 FIP), he never got the chance to pitch for Cincinnati at the big league level. The Reds selected him to their 40-man roster in June (presumably to prevent him from exercising an opt-out clause in his contract) but never actually called him up. They DFA’d him two months later.

For the second time in three years, the Orioles claimed Kriske off of waivers, and he finished out the 2024 campaign in the O’s organization. Across eight appearances at Triple-A Norfolk, he pitched to a 5.00 ERA and 6.79 FIP in nine innings of work. He elected free agency at the end of the season.

Although he struggled late in the year with the Norfolk Tides, Kriske still finished his age-30 season with respectable Triple-A numbers: a 3.39 ERA and 4.48 FIP over 58 1/3 innings. He struck out 34.2% of his opponents. Free passes continue to be a problem for the righty – he walked 14.8% of hitters this past season – but a high walk rate is tolerable as long as he can maintain such a high strikeout rate and keep home runs at a manageable level. He’ll provide depth for the Cubs in the minor leagues, and the fewer batters he walks, the better his chances of getting back to the big leagues in 2025.

The Opener: Black Friday Shopping, Kim, Soto

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As you’re eating Thanksgiving leftovers for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball today:

1. Black Friday shopping:

After a quiet Thanksgiving Day, will any teams resume their offseason shopping on Black Friday? It’s not typically a busy day on the baseball calendar, but it’s not as if every front office executive around the league takes the day off. Three years ago, for instance, news broke that the Mets had signed Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar on Black Friday.

If any team is going to be active today, the Blue Jays might be the best bet. After all, Canadian Thanksgiving has long since passed, and the Jays have been active on Black Friday before; they traded for Josh Donaldson on Black Friday in 2014 and signed free agent J.A. Happ on Black Friday in 2015. Toronto has been linked to several of the top free agents this winter, including Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Anthony Santander. Most recently, a report from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet connected the Blue Jays to Alex Bregman and Luis Severino.

2. Hyeseong Kim to be posted?

According to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, Hyeseong Kim left for Los Angeles earlier today in anticipation of his move from the KBO to MLB. His current team, the Kiwoom Heroes, has not yet posted him, but they are discussing the topic with Kim’s agents at CAA. The three-time KBO Golden Glove winner told Yoo he expects to be posted after Thanksgiving. That suggests he’ll be available to sign with MLB clubs as early as next week. After he is officially posted, he will have 45 days to sign a contract before his posting window closes.

Kim came in at no. 26 on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. And unlike fellow international star Roki Sasaki, Kim is old enough and has the necessary amount of professional experience to sign with any MLB club for as many years and dollars as he can command. Given his plus speed, his defensive talents at second base, his well-regarded bat-to-ball skills, and his youth (he won’t turn 26 until January), the MLBTR staff predicted him to sign a three-year, $24 million deal.

3. Soto sweepstakes continue:

Until he puts pen to paper on a (presumably) record-breaking contract, Juan Soto’s free agency will remain the biggest story of the 2024-25 MLB offseason. The latest update in the Soto saga, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, is that the Yankees increased their offer on Wednesday, although it is not clear what their previous offer was or how much they upped the original number.

More tidbits from Heyman’s reporting include the fact that Soto would prefer a long-term deal as opposed to a shorter contract with a higher AAV. However, he is likely to ask for opt-outs in whatever deal he signs. The Yankees made it clear they are willing to include opt-outs in their offer, but reportedly, so are multiple other suitors. Don’t expect Soto to sign this weekend, but keep an eye out for reports and rumors that will surely continue to trickle out.

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