Cody Bellinger Generating Trade Interest, Seiya Suzuki Trade Less Likely

Cody Bellinger is quickly becoming one of the most talked-about trade candidates of the offseason. Earlier this month, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Cubs were “determined” to trade one of Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic added further detail to that story today, noting that the team would prefer to part with Bellinger. Dealing Suzuki doesn’t seem like anything more than a backup plan in case no Bellinger trade comes together. 

Sharma goes on to mention that there “seems to be real interest” in Bellinger on the trade market, thus pouring cold water on the possibility of a Suzuki deal (at least for now). Indeed, Bellinger has already been linked to the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Yankees, and Astros this winter, and Sharma suggests that the market for Bellinger could heat up now that Juan Soto has signed with the Mets. It seems the Cubs have been shopping Bellinger as a second choice for teams that missed out on the lefty-batting superstar. Bellinger is no Soto, but he can provide above-average offense from the same side of the plate and a much better glove in the outfield. He may not be a perennial MVP contender, but he does have superstar upside, even if his 2019 MVP season is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror.

As for Suzuki, it’s not hard to understand why the Cubs would prefer to hold onto the righty bat. He is set to make $19MM in each of the next two seasons, while Bellinger will make $27.5MM in 2025 and has a player option for $25MM in 2026. Trading Bellinger would free up more payroll space for the coming season and would free the Cubs of his player option; as the name suggests, player options are inherently player-friendly. Furthermore, Suzuki is coming off a stronger season than Bellinger. While Bellinger is a better defender and baserunner, Suzuki is a more reliable middle-of-the-order bat. Bellinger’s offense has been much less stable in recent years. Thus, Suzuki looks like a bargain at $19MM per year, while Bellinger presumably would have opted out of his contract this winter if he thought he could do better on the open market.

For all of those same reasons, Suzuki’s trade market would probably be more robust than Bellinger’s. However, it doesn’t seem as if the Cubs are necessarily trying to maximize their return. Rather, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might simply need to create more payroll flexibility to address areas of greater need on the roster. After all, the Cubs have no shortage of outfield and/or designated hitter types in the organization. That includes center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, left-fielder Ian Happ, and top prospects Kevin Alcántara, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie.

What the Cubs could use more of is pitching. After signing Matthew Boyd, they reportedly remain interested in adding another starter (per Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). Over the past few days, the club has been linked to free agent Walker Buehler and trade candidates Jordan Montgomery and Garrett Crochet. As much as they could use another arm, however, the Cubs might not be willing to pay for another starter without first removing some money from the books. On a related note, Sharma says Chicago has also shown “some interest” in Jack Flaherty but only if his price tag is low enough.

In theory, the Cubs should be able to sign a top-end starting pitcher like Flaherty without trading Bellinger or Suzuki. Their estimated 2025 payroll currently sits around $185MM, according to RosterResource. That’s $43MM lower than last season’s final estimate. They’re also about $40MM under the first luxury tax threshold, which should give them plenty of wiggle room even if they’d like to get back under the tax in 2025. However, Chicago’s eagerness to shop Bellinger and reluctance to court Flaherty certainly suggest that Hoyer is working under payroll constraints as he looks to get the Cubs back to the playoffs for the first time in his tenure as president of baseball operations.