Not long ago, Spencer Torkelson seemed to be out of time. The Tigers first baseman was selected first overall in the 2020 draft to plenty of fanfare, and he instantly became a consensus top-5 talent in the minor leagues. A disappointing rookie season in 2022 tempered those massive expectations, but a strong second half in 2023 caused many around the league to think the following year would be Torkelson’s season to shine. That didn’t happen either, as the slugger was once again a below-average hitter overall and wound up optioned to the minors for much of the year. When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to push Colt Keith over to first base, it seemed like a bad omen for 25-year-old’s future in Detroit.
Spring Training changed all of that, as the club’s entire outfield mix save Riley Greene wound up on the injured list. That opened up enough roster spots for Torkelson to have a real shot at the Opening Day roster, and he made the most of the opportunity by hitting .340/.389/.680 in 55 plate appearances during camp. Spring stats only count for so much due to the less competitive environment, however, and Torkelson would need to show out in actual major league games if he was going to turn his career around. So far, he’s done just that. Torkelson has not only been the Tigers’ best hitter this year, but he’s been one of the top hitters in the majors.
Across 24 games this year, the slugger has slashed an excellent .273/.377/.591 with a wRC+ of 176. It’s enough to have made him the 12th-best qualified hitter in the major leagues to this point in the year. It’s early enough in the season that the leaderboard still looks fairly unusual; just ahead of Torkelson with a 177 wRC+ is veteran outfielder George Springer, who it goes without saying is unlikely to maintain a .444 BABIP all season long. While there’s plenty of reasons to be skeptical of small-sample performances, many of them don’t apply to the 106 plate appearances Torkelson has taken to this point in the year.
Torkelson’s BABIP is .309, which is the highest of his career but well within the range of expected outcomes for a hitter and not substantially higher than the .285 BABIP he posted last season. The fact that Torkelson is hitting the ball on a line (17.7% line drive rate) more often than last year (15.1%) surely helps his outcomes on balls in play, as well. His 26.4% strikeout rate is also a tick lower than last year’s 27.6%, but none of these are the most encouraging signs regarding Torkelson’s start to the 2025 campaign. The most exciting news here is that he’s not only resumed crushing the ball at the level he was during the 2023 season, but that he’s paired it with newfound patience at the plate.
The 25-year-old is swinging less than ever, at just 44.3% of his pitches. Torkelson’s swing rates both inside and outside of the strike zone are lower than ever, and that newfound patience has allowed him to not only draw walks at a phenomenal 13.2% clip but also make more contact when he does swing. His 10.2% swinging strike rate this year is the lowest of his career, and he’s making contact on 52.2% of pitches he swings at outside of the zone after putting the bat on just 40.6% of those same pitches last year.
That more judicious approach at the plate has allowed Torkelson to rediscover his titanic power after posting a paltry .155 ISO last year. He has seven homers and seven doubles already this year, and that power is backed up by his underlying numbers: he’s managed a phenomenal 17.7% barrel rate that would be by far the highest of his career if maintained over the full season and is nearly triple last year’s 6.1% clip, and 50.0% of his balls have been considered hard hit, good for a 95mph exit velocity or higher.
All of this is extremely impressive, and if Torkelson can keep anything close to this going for the full year, he’ll have finally tapped into the potential scouts saw in him half a decade ago as an amateur. Over his final 300 plate appearances in 2023, Torkelson hit .238/.320/.506 with a wRC+ of 125. His 26.7% strikeout rate was more or less identical over that stretch to this year’s figure. His 16.6% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate weren’t far off, either. Those numbers are all close enough to serve as a reminder that Torkelson’s first 100 plate appearances this year don’t guarantee his future production will be close to as impactful, although his 2025 numbers do have a few key advantages over his second-half numbers in 2023.
For one thing, Torkelson’s line drive rate is three points higher while his soft contact rate is nine points lower this season. Those figures could help to explain the huge difference in BABIP, which sat at just .262 during his final 300 trips to the plate in 2023. His discipline is also noticeably improved, as he walked 10.0% of the time during that stretch, nearly four points lower than this year. If Torkelson’s improved plate discipline holds up and he continues to make soft contact this sparingly, it’s not hard to imagine him being able to keep up this level of production over the long haul.
What do MLBTR readers think of Torkelson’s hot start? Is this finally the year he puts it all together and looks like the dominant offensive force he was always expected to be, or will this prove to be another flash in the pan like his late 2023 production? Have your say in the poll below:
I baselessly assured a good buddy in Detroit that Torkelson would pop off in these coming years and be a consistent middle-of-the-order bat for the Tigers, so while this exact level of production might be a bit much to ask for, I’m pulling for him to stay a top RH bat.
@meow. That’s why I drafted him in fantasy it was one of my last picks and I said why not, but he burned me bad last year.
I was obsessed with playing OOTP in the offseason and Tork came through for me big in a couple different saves, which makes me want to see some of that realized irl.
@meow. Yeah never did that I’ll give it in a look. He could bounce back and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was available for a abysmal return in the off-season.
Listening to the pregame today, Padres and Tigers’ broadcasters were discussing the fact that the Padres have limited him in this series by pitching him almost exclusively away. Teams will adjust, so it’s just a question of whether Tork can adjust as well. Can’t knock the nice start though
Sorry Tork, I added you to my fantasy teams. Which is not good for any player. I’ll trade you once I get a good offer, so, all is not lost. Hang in there!
Nobody will offer anything for him. I’m a Tigers fan, but going by my leagues, you could drop him and pick him back up if he heats up again because he’s owned in only about half of the leagues. And I agree with the jinxing of them. I stay away from all Tigers and I pick up the guy starting against them many times because if he does good, my team does, if he doesn’t, my Tigers do. Except for the times Detroit gets to the opposing starter but still loses, lol. It’s rare with their pitching being so sound though.
I draft RS players if they happen to be in the right place at the right time. But if it is a coin-flip decision, then I won’t add them. I figure if they do great, even if I miss them, I’ll still be happy.
If Tork can continue to stay like this, Greene can start hitting to the level of production from last year, and when Keith figures things out, this team could be more dangerous than ever. Keep in mind Vierling is supposed to be back soon as well.
And don’t forget Parker Meadows … should be yet another offensive upgrade over Javy Baez.
Yeah, that was great news about Meadows being cleared to throw again. He’s been doing everything else so he should be on a rehab assignment soon, I’d think. MLB teams baby the players. Guys missing half seasons for a shin bruise, etc.
Baez has had a decent April, don’t write him off either.
Decent for a bench player. No power. Way too much money. That ship sailed.
Hes swinging at the first pitch much more this year and his pull% is like 51%. His spray chart is basically all pull. Thats Isaac Paredes territory. Although Tork has more power, Paredes has better plate discipline. Tork is a higher ceiling lower floor Paredes.
He’s enjoying a nice bounceback
Early but on pace for 40+ hr & 40+ doubles
Walking alot more
i thought he was done after the demotion
But good for him & the tigers
Why cant jace follow suit & figure things out???
Perhaps he will. He sees the ball well enough to draw a ton of walks so maybe he just needs a tiny adjustment to his swing/stance. Jung, I mean.
Too early to tell. Still teetering on bust status!
I’m happy to see the Rejuvenation. My prediction was 28 HRs, and he’s 25% of the way there with 5/6 of the season to go.
Maybe he should slow down a little on the homers. He’s on pace to hit 45.
I was really hoping that AJ Preller would make a move for him when he was at a low point because he would have been a great fit for the padres. He is just too good of a hitter to stay down. Opportunity lost for the Padres but I hope he keeps it going…reminds me of Anthony Rizzo and his struggles when he was brought up to soon and Rizzo got it figured out and had a good career
@3 finger. I was thinking the same that could’ve been a cheap deal that’s no longer on table would’ve been a nice profar replacement.
Not long ago, a few Tigers fans were wondering about a swap with the Pirates for Hayes. As I said then, I’d have helped KeBryan pack the U-Haul
When a lot of those metrics are “career highs” it’s hard to believe this isn’t a hot start. I could see him cooling off but still having a good enough year to warrant everyday status.
I don’t care what haters say it is exciting to see a talented guy figuring it out and shedding the bust label.
I think it’s legit in that Tork has done nothing but hit solidly since spring training.
On the other hand, how he adjusts to his first slump will determine whether he’s really graduated.
It’s a good thing he’s hit so well, because the Tigers would not be at the top of the division, winning series after series. I’m more concerned with Colt Keith at the moment.
Tork, like sophomore slumps is real. He’s doing stuff we’ve never seen before so I believe its for real. Kieth on the hand is fully doing the so;hombre thing right now, and he’s looking kind of lost.
You have to admire the work he’s put in. Onward, and upward the sky is the limit for him now with his self confidence. Its so great for Detroit that hes done so well. Baex is looking great in center as well. His play means that Jung and Ibanex can handle third, and guys don’t have to rush back from the IL.
A fantastic game today taking the rubber game from the Padres. The pitching is blowing up minds in Detroit its that good. The most impressive thing is Detroit’s home record. WOW !!!! Its been along time since they’ve played so well at home, its great. GO TIGERS !!!
Tork will stay consistent with this production IMO. The really scary part is with this starting 5, if the Tigers can get back Meadows and Vierling, then perhaps add a bat or two at the deadline, then these guys can be scary good in October. With Skubal being Skubal and Flaherty pitching as he did early last year, to go with Mize and now Reese Olsen, this could be a FANTASTIC rotation. It’s nice Tork is getting attention for his start to ’25, but our other 1-1 (Mize) isn’t too far off. He’s pitching lights out! Hoping this can carry through to summer!
I think he’s gonna roll all season.
As I stated earlier in the offseason = the Tigers have missed an opportunity to sign.him.to a 5 year low ball contract.
( and I said.ditto.to Green as well)
He had a down year, the Superfife’s advice was.to sign him LT and take advantage of a down year.
Most Tiger fans here? You all wanted to dump the guy……
Illich also missed.the opportunity to hire the Superfife….
proving how right MAYO was…..
That’s MAYO Smith
Tork too four walks on opening day. I don’t care if you’re Ted Williams. No one likes walking hitters. Once you start taking walks, pitchers will have to start giving you pitches to hit.
I voted:
While he won’t hit this well all year, the improvements are legitimate enough to make him a well-above average hitter going forward.
His 17.5% line-drive rate and 13.6% walk rate scream legit growth, but a 26.4% K-rate and .309 BABIP whisper regression.
Glad to see Tork figuring out MLB pitching and taking coaching and advice to make key adjustments to his approach and swing to counter adjustments that teams and pitchers made to Tork.
Tork is showing growth @ the MLB level and shaking the myth that
he is too hard headed to be coached and make adjustments.
AJ Hinch and the Tigers put a little heat under his butt by giving his ABs to other up and coming, young players.
The Tigers injuries to key offensive p[ayers is giving Tork the fulltime ABs to implement the adjustments to his swing, game, approach, patience at the plate, taking walks etc…
Tork has the talent and intelligence to be a producing, above average major leaguer.
If/When Tork succeeds in adjusting more quickly and “on the fly” to the coming “in season changes/approaches to pitching Tork” and getting him out by opposing teams and pitchers,
then that will define whether Tork “breaks out” as a long term MLB superstar
OR if Tork falls back and becomes just an average, rotational and/or platoon player/bench player in MLB.
As teams and pitchers start seeing Tork multiple times this season, and as scouting reports try to find new weaknesses in Tork’s approach and swing, then, we will find that out by August- September whether Tork has “turned the corner” and is a major league regular or if he regresses back to a part time MLB platoon or bench player.
He’s just hot right now and has actually cooled off considerably the last few games. I think his average is down to around 264. He may produce, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this is as hot as he ever got this year.
For now, ……. YES !
There shouldn’t be commas before “as well” and “either.” For the latter, how do you get this correct and then screw it up later in the same article? Deeds stinks.