Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber is slated for free agency at the end of this season. Recently, a couple of different writers have floated a rough $100MM figure as a possibility for his next contract. On May 6th, Jeff Passan of ESPN published a column where he described Schwarber getting to $25MM annually over a four-year deal as “eminently reasonable.” About a week later, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that Schwarber’s recent performance might “lead to the $100 million contract” which previously eluded him.
While Passan did conclude that nine figures is “reasonable” for Schwarber, he is aware that it would set a new precedent. He writes that “a designated hitter who’s going to be 33 next Opening Day getting a nine-figure deal” would be an “outlier” but believes that Schwarber is himself an outlier and deserving of a contract that breaks the mold.
This post will dig in on those current precedents to see how far Schwarber would have to push the market in order to hit the century mark, with the help of MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.
This image (link for app users) shows all the free agent deals for designated hitters going back almost 20 years, sorted by total guarantee. As you can see, designated hitters have not been paid $25MM annually, nor have any received a $100MM guarantee.
Shohei Ohtani is out on an island here, for obvious reasons. He’s a unicorn in terms of on-field ability as a two-way player and his international stardom is unparalleled. No one else has topped $20MM annually. Anthony Santander came close to the century mark in terms of total sticker price but his $92.5MM deal had notable deferrals which pushed the net present value closer to the $70MM range. He’s also not a strict DH, having logged over 1,000 innings in the outfield for the Orioles last year.
Next on the list is Schwarber himself. The last time he hit the open market, he was going into his age-29 season, yet he could only get $79MM over four years, an AAV just under $20MM. Inflation usually pushes the market forward but somewhat similar players like Joc Pederson and Santander could only get to $18.5MM annually in the most recent offseason.
Schwarber is better than those guys, but let’s also look at the age question. Here are all free agent contracts for hitters starting at age-33 or older, regardless of position.
In this image (link for app users), we can see that no free-agent hitter has received a $100MM guarantee beginning at age 33, nor have any secured a $25MM annual salary beginning at that age. Another path to $100MM would be to get $20MM annually over five years. But as shown in that image, there have been no recent deals of that length for players in this age category.
Josh Donaldson did come close to the $25MM AAV and $100MM total. But at the time of that deal, he was still an above-average third baseman. He had just hit 37 home runs for Atlanta while being credited with ten Defensive Runs Saved and nine Outs Above Average. He continued playing well through the first half of that deal but was subpar at the plate in the final two years.
As for Starling Marte, his 2021 season saw him post a 132 wRC+, play over 1,000 innings in the outfield, and steal 47 bases in just 120 games. Still, he was limited to four years and an AAV just under $20MM.
So, designated hitters don’t get $100MM contracts. Nor do players pushing into their mid-30s. For Schwarber to get $100MM as a 33-year-old DH, some team would have to consider him to be worth significantly more than any other previous player in those categories. In fact, 33-year-old Schwarber would have to be valued higher than 29-year-old Schwarber.
What Schwarber has working for him is that he has found a new gear at the plate since coming to Philadelphia. Since signing that deal with the Phils, he has hit 148 home runs. He has drawn walks at a 15.4% clip. His 28.7% strikeout rate is high but he’s always been in that range. Overall, he has a .224/.348/.496 line and 131 wRC+ for the Phillies. Only Aaron Judge and Ohtani have hit more home runs in that time. Judge and Juan Soto are the only guys ahead of him in terms of walk rate, while the wRC+ number is 11th for hitters with at least 2,000 plate appearances in that span. This year, Schwarber’s even above his own pace, with 17 home runs already, a .253/.390/.573 line and 164 wRC+.
Prior to coming to Philadelphia, he had been a few notches below that. From 2017 to 2019, he slashed .234/.337/.492 for a 113 wRC+ with the Cubs. His 12.9% walk rate was good but a few ticks below what the pace he has subsequently managed in Philly. Similarly, he hit 94 home runs over those three seasons, a pace of just over 30 annually. That’s very good, but he’s pushed that up to an almost 45-homer annual pace with the Phils.
He then had a dip in the shortened 2020 campaign. He did hit 11 home runs but his .188/.308/.393 line led to a 91 wRC+. The Cubs could have retained him for 2021 with a projected arbitration salary in the $8-10MM range, but they decided to move on instead. He bounced back tremendously in 2021, splitting his time between the Nationals and Red Sox. He signed a $10MM deal with Washington and was traded to Boston at the deadline. He hit 32 home runs and put up a .266/.374/.554 line for a 145 wRC+.
It’s possible that his rough 2020 showing was still fresh in the minds of baseball decision makers and hampered his market the last time he was a free agent. Since then, he has shown himself to be incredibly reliable at the plate, erasing the memory of his non-tender.
The question now is whether teams will think he can keep it going. When he signed his last contract, he was still a somewhat viable fielder. He has never been good in left field but nonetheless was a regular out there prior to signing with the Phils and got roughly 1,000 innings on the grass in both 2022 and 2023. He has become almost exclusively a DH more recently, with just 41 innings in the field in 2024 and 36 so far in 2025. That means he’ll need to keep hitting to provide any value.
Even the most talented players are subject to declining performance in their mid-30s. Donaldson and Marte were performing well on both sides of the ball in their platform years, but Marte has essentially been a replacement-level player starting with his age-34 season. Donaldson’s bat fell below league average in his age-36 campaign. José Abreu was the A.L. MVP in his age-33 season but was unplayable by his age-36 season.
That could leave Schwarber with a few good years to go. Perhaps not playing the field will help him to gracefully descend that aging curve. Looking at some of the names above, Edwin Encarnación had 34 home runs and a 130 wRC+ in his age-36 season. Victor Martinez had 32 bombs and a 168 wRC+ in his age-35 campaign. He followed that up with a nightmare season, 11 homers and a 77 wRC+, but was able to bounce back with a solid campaign at the age of 37 that features 27 long balls and a 120 wRC+.
Santander just hit 44 home runs last year and still couldn’t get to nine figures, even though he was going into his age-30 season. However, he has never had strong walk rates, so his overall offensive profile is less than Schwarber’s. Even with those bombs, he only had a 129 wRC+ last year, his best such mark in a full season. Schwarber’s average production over three-plus years in Philadelphia has been better than that, with a big spike here in 2025.
Pederson put up a 151 wRC+ last year but was mostly shielded from lefties. He has a .209/.305/.328 line and 78 wRC+ against southpaws in his career. Schwarber had some platoon issues earlier in his career but seems to have put those behind him. At the time of signing his deal with the Phillies, he had a .214/.324/.361 line and 86 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Since coming to Philly, he has a .235/.357/.468 line and 130 wRC+. Amazingly, his wRC+ against lefties has been growing year over year: 95 in 2022, then 107 in 2023, 153 last year and a shocking 223 so far in 2025. That could certainly be an argument for Schwarber doing better than he did on his last deal.
It’s also perhaps worth noting that lowering the age cut-off by one year opens up another interesting comp from recent years. While Donaldson’s $92MM deal is the top mark for a 33-year-old, Freddie Freeman got a six-year $162MM deal going into his age-32 campaign. He’s a better overall hitter than Schwarber with a career 143 wRC+. He’s also a first baseman and not limited to the DH spot. Those factors and the one-year age difference are arguments for Schwarber coming in below Freeman, but it’s possible for him to do so and hit the century mark.
Another factor to consider is the qualifying offer, as Schwarber has never received one. Since he was traded in 2021, he wasn’t eligible to get a QO prior to signing with the Phils. If he sticks in Philadelphia all season long and keeps producing like this, they would surely issue him one, which would probably be in the range of $22MM or so.
Would a team be willing to make a four-year, nine-figure bet on a 33-year-old DH and give up a draft pick in the process? It’s never happened before. Time will tell if Schwarber is unique enough to set some new benchmarks.
Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images
He should be paid more. Is anyone getting the production per pay in baseball as him?
Multiple pre arb players.
can’t believe the Cubs didn’t keep this guy
I seem to remember Cubs fans begging him to be let go. Basically averaged a 1.0 WAR season and was about to be due bigger money.
I think he finally evolved into a little more than just a boom or bust guy in Philly but, would you have kept paying him while you waited – most GM’s not having hindsight or the crystal ball – I’d say Cubs did right but hey, they guy rounded out (no pun intended) a little bit so, oh well.
Curious have other Cubs fans feel. I’m sure there are both sides which is ok.
Yes, Cubs fans do not have a united voice. Many of us knew the DH was likely coming to the NL. Cutting him for no gain was obviously a poor attempt to “shake things up,” and most Cubs fans I talked to or read comments from online agreed. The OBP and SLG were unquestionable even then.
He hit .188 in 2020 and Ricketts had “biblical losses”. The Cubs went with Joc Pedersen for less money.
Both Joc and Schwarbs were in their free agent platform year. I think Kevin Long, Washington hitting coach, helped Schwarber quite a bit in 2021. Even so, the Nationals didn’t get much for him when they traded him to Boston.
Kevin Long has also been the Phillies coach the past four seasons.
Most likely a mid market team can’t pass up the chance of getting a hitter that can get you 40 homers and 100 rbi that they normally wouldn’t be able to get.
But he’s not going to improve their team that much.
Not all teams are the Dodgers champ. Kind of an arrogant statement on your part.
Darren does make some arrogant comments. That is not one of them.
Friendly reminder that by the time Adam Dunn, who was Kyle Schwarber before Kyle Schwarber was Kyle Schwarber, was 32 years old, he was done for.
Schwarber is basically Rob Deer with more power
They paid $700M for a pitcher (who hasn’t pitched since signing that contract) / DH and almost $800M for a guy with terrible defense and no speed, so essentially a DH. He’s a bit older than those two guys, but why not more than a $100M, based on the market?
York – Ohtani received a $460M NPV contract because of heavy deferrals.
Agree with you on Soto though, he’ll be a 1B or DH within 8 years or so.
@Fever Pitch Guy
I get that, but the $700 still applies to the payroll evaluation, regardless of what was deferred. But, even if we say, okay, it’s only $460M for essentially a DH guy, I’d say $100M for Schwarber seems like a discount, based on his production. Factoring in his age, maybe somewhere in the $200M range makes sense? Again, I’m only looking at recent market value for DH players.
“Agree with you on Soto though, he’ll be a 1B or DH within 8 years or so.”
You say this as an insult but that’s almost a decade away. Even Harper and Ohtani moved out of the outfield. It happens.
rct – Not sure why or how you read that as an insult, it’s the natural progression as great hitters age. Plenty of hall of famers have made the transition.
Both of those players are perennial MVP candidates in big markets, that’s why they’re getting paid nearly a billion dollars each.
Philadelphia is probably a top 5 big market city in sports.
Ohtani will be pitching after the All-Star break. He started throwing breaking pitches recently, and there isn’t any reason to rush him back. So he’ll be a two way player again, and not just a DH.
And Ohtani is an income stream cheat code for the dodgers. He’s increased their revenue by more than some teams payroll. So there’s that.
Soto? I think it was an overpay. But I could be wrong. And more importantly, it isn’t my money the Mets are spending on him.
I was surprised there wasn’t a poll included with this article, but then I saw it wasn’t written by Deedsy.
No authored by the wordsie Darragh ask him the time and he’ll go on all nite
Pretty sure Devers has the highest annual salary and biggest remaining contract for a fulltime DH, thanks to Cora & Company.
Even though Excel isn’t known for always breaking the bank, I think he gets $100M/4yrs.
Other than 2021 he’s stayed healthy every year since 2019 and he’s flourishing now that they moved him out of the leadoff spot, which was an incredibly dumb decision in the first place.
Yeah let’s put one of the slowest runners and best sluggers in the game at leadoff,….. ridiculous.
The Devers comparison is actually perfect at this point. Although Kyle is a willing defender for a couple positions, if not a very good option.
Get it done Buster
The player closest in comparison to Schwarber (at least in terms of player profiles) is Anthony Santander, a slugging COF/DH. Santander signed for 5yr/$92.5M with the Blue Jays. Schwarber has been a bit better (he draws a few more walks and isn’t vastly inconsistent year-to-year), so I’d say he’ll easily get $100M, maybe way more than that.
Schwarber is older. Also arguably better tho.
I think Schwarber’s age is definitely overcome by his performance. Schwarber has been more consistently better and as a DH, if his plate discipline and bat speed stays the same, his performance will stay good.
Worth 100 at least. By all accounts an amazing clubhouse presence. He obviously loves Philli and Harper working out so well at 1B leaves the opening.. Philli to resign him for around that amount, plus they are built to contend for the next 3-4 years at least. Win for all.
If Santana got a $20MM AAV in 2017, wouldn’t that be the equal (via inflation) of over $25MM in 2025 money?
I think he falls short of a 100m guaranteed. I think he’ll be looking at 3 year deals. Something like a 3/80m deal with a 25m team option or 5m buyout likely resigning with the Phills.
With how few teams were going after Alonso, who was several years younger and can play a position I don’t think Schwarber’s market will be 100m strong.
Alonso had a down year and was looking for a Boras long deal. Interested teams pivoted to other players.
Schwarber will exceed $100M if he only wants four years out of the gate.
It’s likely Tucker doesn’t resign in Chicago and if Schwarber can’t get a deal done with the Phillies, then the Cubs could bring him in easily on a 4 yr deal to be a full-time DH and emergency outfielder, maybe even in dire circumstances, the emergency 1b for a couple games. Give him high-value the first two years, say $27m each, then $17m the last two years, throwing in incentives for AS selections, MVP votes, games played, WS win, Silver Slugger, etc.. Suzuki and Happ will probably be gone after ’26 so with cheap young replacements in the OF (Cassie and Alcantara), that 4 year deal ties him in with Swanson’s final four years, and what will hopefully be the prime, or near prime, years of PCA, Shaw, Horton and maybe even Amaya.
I have Tucker going to the O’s to replace Mullins. They have very little on their ’26 books. Gunnar and Adley will test the market with Boras once they’re loose.
Kyle has only gotten better with age. He’s been a consistent bat for the Phillies and he’s usually good for 40 bombs a year. I think he stays in Philadelphia he’s really excelled as a Philly.
Though he has some good pop and can walk he is Adam Dunn with a slightly better batting average. I could see him break $100 million if it is a 6 year contract.
I’m bias because I never valued the player as much as many but his profile (outside of the walks) worries me long term. He is turning 33 before next year. Any decent slip in production and he is not very valuable as he offers nothing outside of the HR and BB. If a team wants him as that extra piece in the playoffs I would caution that he is a mistake hitter and is almost always gonna get himself out when the pitcher does a decent job. So while I acknowledge he’s had some big postseason moments, he can be managed fairly easily with a good lefty reliever and good SP. Whereas I could maybe have Ozuna for less years and get a guy who can hit even when the pitcher executes and is not gonna go on two months worth of horrific streaks yearly.
Are you one of those fans who thinks no player deserves to get paid beyond their age 32 to 34 seasons,
I get that logic. Most guys drop off between 32 and 34 years old. But there’s enough money in the game and they get underside for enough years between getting called up, that ri me that’s the tax teams pay as they enjoy the ultra cheap production of the next generation of pre arbitration and arbitration players getting under paid for their services.
Depends on the player. It’s measuring risk/reward. As I said I just don’t value the player as much as some people. If he were getting that kind of money he’d likely be getting a pretty long deal. I would only feel comfortable (playing GM) on shorter term deals unless I think the skill set and maybe just something about the individual is likely to continue to thrive into their mid 30s. It would be nice if he had another tool. Defense or more basehits. Take Freeman. To me he has an uncanny hit tool. I feel he’s generational in that way. It seems intuitive almost. He is also a good base runner and generally athletic (doing splits at 1B). Any one or two aspects of his game could fall off a bit and he’d still be valuable.
Also it seems to me that a player who gets into massive streaks already has something of a hole that comes out in their game at times and it isn’t too far of a stretch to imagine it becoming more pronounced.
I guess my issue is that the game has SO much money in it, most owners/ownership groups have enough financial resources to field expensive clubs in a way they often pretend they can’t afford, that some guys get the short end due to the age they were when they got called up, as well as perception vs reality.
Schwarber earned his last deal and that token $1M discount was manipulative silliness, not unlike when Pavano got 4 years/$39.995M from the Yankees way back when.
Now granted, there are perfect examples of this age limit theory, such as Semien cratering in his age 34 season this year.
But Schwarber has earned at least an extra 1-2 years at a premium.
If it’s the years folks are so uncomfortable with, go 2 years/$70M and then be done with him.
Yes. He took one of those rare deals where he was such a fair value he got underpaid relative to the way the game tends to overpay veterans. He’s producing in a way that I bet the Phillies wish they tacked on a year to his old deal.
I think 4 years/$100M is basically perfect and if he suddenly gets old and unreliable, that’s the business and he doesn’t owe anybody a discount at this point.
That said, coming off 4 years/$79M I wonder if he gets a cheeky, token 4 years/$99M to keep his free agency theme consistent.
He’s earned it.
He’ll get the $100 million from the Phillies. Unlikely another team would sign him to that much and lose draft picks because of qualifying offer
Jeff, eminently reasonable, Passan. What not say, reasonable? Or if he insists on an adverb, say very reasonable.
If I had to make a ballpark estimate… I’d go with 4 years 108 mil
I don’t believe he goes over $100 mil
Yes
4 years…. 90MM….
Give it another four years and 90% of MLB will be making 100 mil.
In 4 years the pirates payroll might be 100 mil.
Who cares anymore? Just too riduculous for most people to comprehend.
My guess is 4 years, $90 million. A lot of the comps in this article aren’t applicable. He’s a great slugger who doesn’t play the field or run much. I’m not sure the Phillies will go there. To me, their DH in waiting is Turner.
Easy answer is no, he shouldn’t get $100 mil. He obviously did a little something in the off-season and came in pristine shape. It’s never a coincidence when these guys come in lighter, stronger and put up monster stats on walk years
Pretty amazing how many folks are like “he’s playing great and out played his old deal, so he in no way shape or form deserves to be paid fairly for his production.”
It’s not your money.
This is what I talk about with regards to *perceived* value vs actual objective value of players.
If these comments sections determined contracts it’d be based purely on “vibes”
4/100 or 5/125. And he deserves all of it!