The Cardinals placed pitching prospect Sem Robberse on the full-season injured list in the minor leagues today. The club announced to reporters, including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, that the righty has undergone Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the remainder of this season and part of 2026 as well.
Robberse, now 23, was one of two young pitchers the Cardinals acquired from the Blue Jays in the 2023 deadline deal which sent Jordan Hicks to Toronto. Robberse was set to be eligible in the Rule 5 draft a few months later, but the Cards protected him by adding him to their 40-man roster that November.
The young Netherlands-born righty has generally been a serviceable starter in the minors. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 414 1/3 innings, allowing 4.04 earned runs per nine. His 22.5% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in that span were both fairly average numbers. He also got ground balls on close to half of the balls in play he allowed.
This year, he got out to a rough start, posting a 7.36 ERA over four Triple-A outings. However, that seems to have been mostly bad luck. His .447 batting average on balls in play and 61.6% strand rate in that small sample were both to the unfortunate side. Meanwhile, his 24.7% strikeout rate and 46.8% ground ball rate were both strong numbers. His 10.4% walk rate was on the high side but not egregiously so.
Regardless, Robberse is not going to get a chance to correct those numbers, an unfortunate blow for him and the team. It’s not a huge deal in the short term. The St. Louis rotation is so healthy right now that Steven Matz has been bumped to the bullpen multiple times, despite strong results. Michael McGreevy is stuck in Triple-A even though he’s putting up good numbers there.
Still, depth can disappear fast and this is the second hit the Cards have taken in that department. Cooper Hjerpe, one of the club’s top pitching prospects, required his own Tommy John surgery last month.
In the longer term, this will cloud Robberse’s path to making it to the majors. The Cards are slated to lose Matz, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde to free agency this winter. That would leave them with a projected 2026 rotation of Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore, with two potential rotation spots open.
Instead of competing for a role in the starting mix, Robberse will be rehabbing from his surgery. He’s currently in his second of three option years. That means 2026 could be his final option year, if he sticks on the 40-man roster through the upcoming offseason. He probably won’t be fully healthy until midway through that 2026 season. The Cards could call him up and put him on the major league 60-day IL at some point, if they so choose. Doing so would open a 40-man roster spot but it would also involve Robberse earning major league pay and service time.
Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images
Sem? Interesting name…
Seems the sem as any other name to me
I wonder if Sem is Sam but in Dutch.
This is indeed the case.
You win Sem, you lose Sem.
Our pitching depth is kinda shot. Only good, MLB ready, and healthy one is McGreevy. Quinn Matthews is returning at least, but should we go after some minor-league pitching depth come the trade deadline?
You can never have too much pitching depth as evident with the Dodgers.
I love how we are playing but think we should trade Sonny, Fedde, Matz, Arenado (please). Mikolas if anyone will take him. I just don’t see the purpose of us being an average team with aging veterans when you have this really exciting young core. Let’s get some good prospects, some guys a year or two away and ramp up for 2026 and 2027.
Half the posts on MLBTR seem to be pitching injury related. I wonder if analytics experts have analyzed the true cost of high spin rate/velocity for performance. In other words, would a team be better off with less spin/velocity and lower performance but with healthy pitchers? Remember when you have injuries you must replace proven talent with unproven talent, which usually means significantly lower performance.
Dodgers,
Good point, but which team will be the first to tell their pitchers not to give max effort? And which pitchers will listen and back off, knowing they’re likely to perform worse and potentially get demoted or released or earn a lower-value FA contract?
gbs42: Fully understood on livelihoods of pitchers, knowing most are perfectly willing to trade reduced health for performance. But pitchers in the 1980s/1990s/early 2000s did just fine. Are we saying those pitchers would not fare well in today’s game? Also, it seems like velocity/spin comes also with lower command. We’re teaching pitchers that with high velocity/spin, location is not as important. In and out of the zone. I’d think that a backwards pitcher of 1980s/1990s who has good command, movement and is able to change speeds could fare very well in today’s game. Give me a Greg Maddux or Orel Hershiser.
dodgerfan,
I’m not sure how many pitchers from the ’80s-2000s would make it to the majors if they pitched like they did then. The expectations are different, so someone throwing 90-92 heat with a curveball and changeup might not even be drafted.
Guys like Maddux and Hershiser probably would adapt and succeed in any era, but few pitchers are HOF or close to that level, so they’re not representative examples of typical ’80s-2000s pitchers.
Need to raise back the mound to 15 inches and throw more 12-6 curves vs hard arm destroying sliders
It’s going to require an MLB-wide initiative – changes to mound height, distance from the rubber to home plate, changes to the ball, etc. – that results in pitchers putting less stress on their bodies because I can’t see teams and players volunteering to perform worse.
It’s an extremely challenging issue.
@dodgersfan
Historically, I would have agreed with you. But teams have crunched the numbers and decided it’s cheaper to live with the injuries. The truth is it’s easier to teach a kid to throw 100mph than it is to teach him to pitch like Maddux. It also takes less time. The proof is in the numbers. Even though pitching injuries are at an all time high, scoring is not increasing. So the reality is that unproven pitchers who throw really hard are not performing significantly worse than the proven guys who throw really hard. On average, velocity is effective regardless of who provides it. And since young flame throwers are increasingly available, teams aren’t worried about their relatively short shelf lives.
Pitchers are becoming like running backs in the NFL. As the number of players with similar skillsets grows, their value falls. They are simply replaceable. Pitching injuries are much more concerning to fans than front offices. Your Dodgers are at the very forefront of that line of thinking.
Don,
I would argue teams prefer it this way. Young pitchers are cheap, older ones are expensive. If teams can cycle through young flamethrowers year after year instead of paying for free agents, that will save them a ton of money.
Totally agreed. It also took much longer and required a greater investment to teach throwers how to pitch. And the results were unpredictable. Velocity and spin rate take less time to teach and the results are more reliable. It’s easy math for a savvy front office.
There’s also the financial incentive for pitchers to learn to pitch with high velocity and/or high spin. These kids are chasing the dollar signs starting right off the bat in grade school. Lots of pitchers get their first Tommy John in high school or college. Then it’s chase the money signs until your arm falls off, and if your arm falls off one year after signing that 10 year 300 million dollar contract a la Strasbourg, well then that’s life.
Fans are far more concerned with this than the teams and pitchers.
Time to implement a grip of some sort.
Either a league-approved substance externally applied or added to the leather of the baseballs
These guys are trying to snap off greater rotation, and the torque is killing their arms.