As has been the case for each of the past several seasons, the Phillies’ rotation remains the team’s greatest strength. Their starters rank fifth in MLB in ERA and first in strikeouts, K-BB%, and SIERA. They trail only the Mets in FanGraphs WAR. Philadelphia’s continued success in this area has plenty to do with the talent the team has acquired and developed, but health has been another critical factor. In an age when arm injuries are a greater concern than ever, the Phillies have done an excellent job of keeping their pitchers on the field, and they have reaped the rewards. As Matt Gelb of The Athletic pointed out this morning, the Phillies were the only team in Major League Baseball not to make any major league pitching transactions during the first month of the season; the 13 pitchers on their active roster right now are the same 13 they started with on Opening Day.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff will grow healthier still on Sunday when left-hander Ranger Suárez is reinstated from the injured list. He has been out since the spring with back tightness. There is no doubt the Phillies will be pleased to have Suárez back on the bump. An All-Star for the time last summer, he has pitched to a 3.27 ERA and a 3.92 SIERA in 537 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He has been particularly dominant in October, with a 1.43 ERA in 10 postseason appearances (eight starts). No active pitcher has thrown more postseason innings (37 2/3) with a lower ERA. Nevertheless, Suárez’s return raises a difficult question for the Phillies that few other teams are lucky enough to have to answer: What are they going to do with all of their starting pitchers?
The Phillies are one of just five teams to have used only five starting pitchers so far this season. Zack Wheeler has continued to shine in his age-35 campaign, posting a 3.48 ERA and a 2.52 SIERA with 57 strikeouts across an MLB-leading 44 innings of work. Meanwhile, offseason trade acquisition Jesús Luzardo has looked unexpectedly ace-like himself, with a 1.73 ERA and a 3.12 SIERA through his first six starts with his new club. Cristopher Sánchez put an injury scare last week behind him, and his 3.54 ERA and 3.00 SIERA suggest he’s picking up right where he left off in his All-Star 2024 season. Aaron Nola has struggled at times, pitching to a 5.40 ERA, but his underlying numbers (3.63 SIERA, 3.58 xFIP) are stronger, and he has given the Phillies at least five innings in all six of his starts. Finally, Taijuan Walker has been a pleasant surprise as the no. 5. After an ugly 2024 (7.10 ERA, 5.25 SIERA), Walker has been much more effective so far this year. His 2.78 ERA might not be sustainable, but his 4.41 SIERA paints the picture of a capable back-end starter. That’s the kind of pitcher the Phillies hoped they were signing when they gave him a four-year, $72MM contract in December 2022.
It’s not up for debate who Suárez would replace if the Phillies decide to stick with a traditional five-man rotation. Walker might have a sub-three ERA right now, but he’s not the same caliber of pitcher as any of Wheeler, Luzardo, Sánchez, or Nola. If his dismal performance last season wasn’t enough to prove that, his 20% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate in 2025, both the worst rates among Phillies starters, should do it. The question, however, is whether the Phillies would consider keeping all six arms in circulation once Suárez returns.
Asked exactly that on Tuesday, manager Rob Thomson offered a cagey response. “Possibly,” he told reporters, including Noah Levick of NBC Sports Philadelphia. “We’re kind of walking through that a little bit right now.” In contrast, Gelb wrote this morning that the Phillies are “highly unlikely” to use a six-man rotation. That said, even Gelb didn’t shut down the idea entirely, and he acknowledged that sticking with a five-man rotation would “prompt a tough decision” for the Phillies to make.
The crux of the issue is that the Phillies need Walker – they just don’t need him right now. As long as Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sánchez, and Suárez are healthy, Walker is all but irrelevant on this team. Yet, rotation depth is essential to get through a 162-game season, even for a team with a strong track record of keeping pitchers healthy. Walker proved how valuable he can be when he stepped in for Suárez during the first month of the season. The Phillies surely want to have him as an option again should any of their top five starters suffer an injury.
However, if the Phillies don’t keep Walker in the rotation, they’ll have to move him to the bullpen. They don’t have the option to send him down to Triple-A, where he could stay stretched out and ready for his next big league opportunity. It’s not that the Phillies don’t have room for Walker in their bullpen; he would almost surely be an upgrade over Carlos Hernández. The eighth man in Philadelphia’s arm barn has given up eight runs in 11 innings, striking out eight and walking seven. His 10.01 Statcast xERA is among the worst in the sport. The concern is that Walker wouldn’t be as effective yo-yoing between the bullpen and rotation as he is right now after having had a full spring training to prepare as a starter. A six-man rotation would allow the Phillies to keep Walker stretched out and pitching on a consistent schedule.
A six-man rotation would also give the rest of Philadelphia’s starters some additional rest, which could prove critical in helping them all stay at full strength down the stretch and (potentially) into October. This isn’t an option for most teams because it’s hard enough to find five MLB-caliber starters, let alone six. It would make sense for the Phillies to take advantage of this unusual opportunity for as long as they have a surplus of healthy arms.
Of course, a six-man rotation has its downsides, too. For one, it would lead to fewer starts for the Phillies’ best pitchers. In other words, it would diminish what has been the team’s greatest strength so far this season. What’s more, the Phillies have two off days coming up in the next two weeks (May 5 and 15). With a six-man rotation, there would be times when their starters were waiting a full week between outings. It’s fair to wonder if that’s too much time off. Rest is good. Rust is not. It is also important to think of the ramifications a six-man rotation would have on the bullpen. Philadelphia’s bullpen has struggled enough this season as it is, producing a 5.03 ERA and eight blown saves. Those numbers might be even worse if they’d had to split the 98 1/3 innings they’ve pitched so far between seven arms instead of eight. The team could ameliorate this problem somewhat by cycling through the optionable arms at the bottom of the 40-man roster or taking full advantage of the waiver wire, but that’s hardly the smartest bullpen strategy long-term.
Lastly, the Phillies need to consider the Andrew Painter of it all. The top prospect in the organization and one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, the 22-year-old righty is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. His goal is to make his MLB debut at some point this summer. If everyone else is healthy when Painter gets the call, that could be the ideal time for the Phillies to switch to a six-man rotation. They could push their starters a little harder now with the understanding that some respite would be coming later in the season.
Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham recently told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber, “We’re okay with not chasing a win today to win a bunch of games down the road.” While he wasn’t directly addressing the idea of a six-man rotation when he spoke those words, he nonetheless did a good job laying out the argument for such a strategy. One or two fewer starts from arms like Wheeler, Sánchez, Luzardo, Nola, and Suárez early in the season could mean more starts (and better starts) from all of them when it matters more. Moreover, keeping Walker in the rotation now could help prevent depth issues down the line. With that said, the argument against a six-man rotation is robust, and the most recent reporting suggests it’s still unlikely.
So, what do MLBTR readers think? Would the Phillies be smart to try out a six-man rotation, even just temporarily? Or would they be better off sticking with a traditional five-man set-up and moving Walker to the bullpen? Have your say in today’s poll:
Photos courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images.
Taijuan Walker has done a decent job thus far but we all know he can not be counted on. His stuff isn’t that much different from 24′. I give him a lot of credit but I think he is best suited for (1) or (2) inning stints out of the pen with his (2) pitch mix. Wheeler prefers to be on his normal schedule and I would think Nola prefers that as well. There is no reason a starter can’t be skipped here and there too if needed rest and let Walker begin a bullpen game.
What feels like the issue here is the team is just waiting for another shoe to drop so they can go back to 5. The BP isn’t good enough to be that thin, and Wheeler is bad on extra rest. That said, it may be what they need to do for now.
Nola only had one good start in April. I dont think you can pull him but if he didnt put in a good start last turn, you’d have to start wondering about his health.
Taijuan Walker is terrible and there is no reason to keep him in the rotation if you have 6 capable guys lol
5 oops
When Painter is ready it probably will be six.
Walker can’t eat innings either so he taxes the pen.
Painter has thrown only 7 innings in A ball this season. I’m not sure why Phillies fans think he will be any part of the major league roster this season.
That’s by design. Painter is on an innings limit for the year. His target return to a starter’s innings load is a couple months away.
A couple months away puts him into July. He’s in single A. He isn’t going to play a factor in this Phillies season at all. Two inning clips in single A isn’t getting him prepared for the Majors. He is still a prospect and not a lnown major leaguer rehabing.
The Phillies have just announced Painter’s promotion to AAA Lehigh, with intent to ramp up in competition and innings. He pitched 11 2/3 innings in 4 starts in Clearwater.
7 man rotation with Painter coming soon. They need to trade Walker around or before All Star break for a team in need and prob will still pay a big part of his salary if we can get a shutdown closer. Or how about this, Rob Thomson should be fired bc everyone knows Strahm 8th inn and Alvarado 9th. His commitment level to a closer is that of Gabe tasting and spitting out ice cream
They should try to trade Walker now that he has had a “dead cat bounce” before it wears off on the heat of the summer. Surely you can get a halfway decent prospect from an AL contender since just about except the White Sox is within a few games of each other.
Phillies sending $30 million with him?
His roster spot + a prospect would be worth it. It’s not like the Phillies don’t have the money.
The best thing for the Phillies will be to coordinate things so that Walker continues to get starts for a while and show that he can be helpful to another team that might pick up a little bit of his salary. There is such a dearth of healthy pitching that some team is bound to bite, I think. In the meantime the Phillies can operate under the idea that you never have enough depth, because you don’t ever have enough depth.
The Phils don’t need a six-man rotation. What they need is some new karma in the form of a dominant closer and slugger with defensive skills. Fortunately for the Phils, the Cards are trying to trade exactly what the Phils need if they plan to make the 2025 playoffs. So, here’s the deal. The Phils trade either starter Walker or Suarez, plus DH Schwarber, plus a few fillers to the Cards for third baseman Arenado and closer Helsley. In doing so, the Phils gain Arenado, a future Hall of Famer who still has 3 or 4 good years left as well as a hefty contract, and Helsley, one of the game’s top closers for either Walker, a starter who is under team control for a few more years, or Suarez, a starter who is a free agent at the end of this season, plus Schwarber, who is at the height of his game right now but a free agent at the end of the season, plus a few extra pieces who may have more playing opportunities with the Cards than they are likely to have with the Phils in the next few years. The Cards are one of the teams Suarez and Schwarber would consider joining long term. Similarly, pending free agent Helsley would probably consider joining the Phils long term. So, trading a pending free agent for a pending free agent decreases the risk for both teams. To many Phillies fans, mentioning the idea of trading Schwarber would be considered heresy because of his popularity and fast start this season. However, it is his fast start and the Phils inability to extend him this off-season which make it necessary to trade Schwarber before the trade deadline while he is still a valuable trade chip. If they hold on to him until the end of the season and fail to win the world series, chances are the Phils will be outbid for his services by other teams in free agency. Acquiring Arenado would more than offset Schwarber’s offensive production and, at the same time, give the Phils one of baseball’s greatest all-time defensive third basemen who could tutor Bohm as he emerges as another formidable defensive third baseman. The two could share playing time at third, and join Harper in sharing time at first base and DHing. This trade solves a lot of problems for both teams but, for it to be truly helpful, it should be done sooner than later. Trading Schwarber and either Walker or Suarez to the Cards may seem like a lot, but the Cards aren’t going to just give away Arenado and Helsley. As proposed, this would be a fair trade.
They had Jeff Hoffman. Best reliever in baseball so far this season. They should have paid up to keep him. Hindsight is 20/20 though, of course.
hban, You’re absolutely right. However, the Phils have historically been penny-wise and pound-foolish, and much of their reluctance to pony up the extra bucks for a deserving player has cost them much more to rectify. Conversely, they have frequently wasted money with exorbitant contracts to marginal players. To their credit, the Phils have not acquiesced to Harper’s request for a longer contract, and they probably won’t pay much more than they’ve already paid to extend Schwarber. I’ve written many times that Harper will not finish his career with the Phils, and Schwarber will follow the money after this season if the Phils don’t trade him first. As the Zen Master said, “We’ll see!”
Multiple paragraphs would make reading this LOOONG comment significantly easier.
gbs,
All my comments are LOOONG.
Paragraphs would only make them LOOOOOONGER.
Hitting Return once in a while would make them MOOOOORE legible.
Arenado? Really.
Why would the Cardinals want Schwarber?
If Walker pitches well tonight, maybe just maybe the Phillies could flip him with a few prospects like Mick Abel (#8), Gabriel Rincones Jr. (#9) and Otto Kemp (#17) to another team like the Orioles, Twins or Angels – a club that was hoping to contend but could use a little “shake up”? 4 for 2 deal for two players with salaries that equal out Walker’s. Buxton & Jax? O’Niell & Seranthony? Dare I say Trout & Reid Detmers? It’s fair to say that any of those combos would not cost the Phillies Andrew Painter, Aiden Miller or Justin Crawford either. But three top 15 prospects regardless, plus a back end starter to a team desperate for one.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, Ranger would be in the pen. He’s the only one with bullpen experience of the group, and performs quite well there. Would be good way to keep his innings down, as Ranger was brilliant through his first 100 IP’s last year before fading at the end. He’s in his Free Agency season though, so he doesn’t necessarily want to pitch from the pen (his words). Can’t blame him, but under no circumstances will Aaron Nola go to the bullpen. 0% chance. He would be the game 4 starter in a playoff series.
Have you seen the Phillies bullpen? You want them a man down?
The Phillies should use Andrew Painter out of the bullpen when he’s ready to debut. It’ll keep his workload down for this season, and he could be potentially lethal in the late innings.
The 2008 Tampa Devil Rays used their prized pitching prospect, David Price, out of the pen his rookie year. If they go they route with Painter, maybe avoid back to backs and cap him at about 30 pitches per outing. Since they like to keep him in bubble wrap.
The stuff Painter was throwing in the Arizona Fall League was next level better than what Alvarado can achieve on his best day.
I’d prefer the go with a 1 man rotation. Be like the Japanese ace and throw a ton of innings to help your team win the championship. You get nothing for participation.
I like the idea of gauging fans’ thoughts through polls, but I cannot think of a single poll for which the obvious answer was “no.”
There must be a web-based version of Betteridge’s Law of Headlines.
On a staff with Taijuan Walker it’s strange that Aaron Nola has been the worst starter out of the 5 this season.
I would go a couple of turns through the rotation with a 6 man staff but if Nola continues to struggle and Walker continues to pitch well it might be Nola needs a stint in the bullpen to work things out
He has not.
Nola represents what a starter is better than most anyone in the game. Even at his worst he eats innings better than Walker can even with Walker operating as a Gold Glove fifth infielder from the mound.
Rsox,
How do you think Nola would do as a closer?
Poorly. Like his worst innings.
Trade Walker for a reliever while he has some value.
Phillies will be hard pressed to unload Walker with 2026 at 18M still on the books, no matter how well he pitches. Do what SF has done with Birdsong and STL with Matz, and hope he can pitch well in long relief to step in when needed. Prep Painter’s workload to give them some solid innings the 2nd half of the season, maybe along the lines of what Wainright did in his first (full) season in the majors (84+ innings including playoffs, with some clutch saves down the stretch).
Phillies will be hard pressed to unload Walker with another year at 18mil still on the books no matter how well he pitches. Do what SF has done with Birdsong and STL with Matz, and hope he can pitch well in long relief to step in when needed. Then hope Painter can give them some solid innings the 2nd half of the season. Would be great to see him do something like what Wainright did in his first (full) season in the majors (84+ innings including playoffs, including some key saves down the stretch).
There shouldn’t be a comma before “too.” That’s an archaic rule.