Few players captured more attention throughout the 2025 season than Pete Crow-Armstrong. The young center fielder seemed to launch himself into superstardom in the first half this year, with 20 doubles, 21 homers, and 25 steals through the end of June. That worked out to a .263/.299/.537 slash line, good for a 128 wRC+ with elite defense in center field that made him an early rival for Shohei Ohtani in this year’s MVP race. He followed up that brilliant performance with a far less exciting second half, as he slashed just .228/.274/.412 (86 wRC+) with 17 doubles, ten home runs, and ten steals from July 1 onward.
Crow-Armstrong’s second-half slump was enough to knock him far out of the MVP conversation, but his season-long numbers remain impressive. In 157 games, the 23-year-old hit .247/.287/.481 (109 wRC+) with 35 steals in 43 attempts and an MLB-best +24 Outs Above Average for his work in center field. All of that combined to be worth 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR, good for 11th and 15th respectively among qualified hitters this year. A five- or six-win season from a 23-year-old who entered the year with less than 150 games of big league experience is hard to view as anything other than an exciting success, and that’s how Jed Hoyer characterized it in his end-of-season press conference shortly after the Cubs’ season came to a close in Game 5 of the NLDS.
“In totality, he had a great year,” Hoyer said of Crow-Armstrong, as relayed by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Hoyer went on to describe Crow-Armstrong as “the best defensive player in baseball” and noted that “when he’s hitting, he’s a superstar.”
All of that rings true based on his performance this season, and as the Cubs head into an offseason where Hoyer acknowledged they hope to have extension conversations with several players, Mooney writes that locking up the team’s star center fielder “figures to be the top priority.”
It won’t be the first time the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong talk about extending his stay in Chicago beyond his years of team control. The sides discussed an extension towards the beginning of the year, before his standout first half, and Crow-Armstrong passed on a deal that reportedly would’ve maxed out around $75MM with a guarantee in the $60MM-$70MM range. Crow-Armstrong, of course, rejected that offer, and while Hoyer expressed an openness to discussing an extension with the youngster’s camp during the season no further progress on the topic was reported throughout the year. Perhaps that’s not surprising, given the unusual year Crow-Armstrong just had.
If the Cubs do intend to reopen extension talks with their budding star, what could a sensible contract look like? After entering 2025 just barely short of a full year of MLB service time, Crow-Armstrong currently remains under control through the end of the 2030 season. At that point, he figures to be ticketed for free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker offers a wide range of comparable players in recent years. Players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Lawrence Butler, and Ezequiel Tovar had less than two years of MLB service when they signed their deals, like Crow-Armstrong. They all landed extensions in the $60MM to $70MM range that the Cubs reportedly offered prior to this season, but those deals were blown out of the water by the $134.2MM guarantee Jackson Merrill landed in his eight-year extension with the Padres back in April.
Merrill is a year younger than Crow-Armstrong, meaning he signed his deal at the start of his age-22 season while Crow-Armstrong would be signing ahead of his age-24 season this offseason. Both players had five seasons left under club control before free agency, however, and were coming off similarly elite platform seasons; Merril’s 130 wRC+ outshone Crow-Armstrong, but his lesser defense and baserunning left him with a roughly comparable 5.3 fWAR. They also play the same position, making Merrill’s recent deal a logical point of reference for Crow-Armstrong overall.
It’s the second-highest guarantee an outfielder with less than two seasons of MLB service time has received in MLB history, behind the $210MM guarantee the Mariners offered Julio Rodriguez that can max out at $470MM over 17 years if all incentives are reached and options are exercised. Given that Rodriguez was in the midst of posting a 148 wRC+ with 5.7 fWAR and 6.2 bWAR in just 132 games as a 21-year-old rookie when he signed his extension, it’s safe to expect that a deal for Crow-Armstrong would come in closer to Merrill’s contract.
A contract similar to the one signed by Merrill could make some sense, and an eight-year, $140MM contract would beat Merrill’s contract in terms of both guarantee and average annual value. However, the Cubs may not be interested in such a large guarantee for only three additional seasons of team control, while Crow-Armstrong may not want to head into free agency at the tail end of his physical prime as a player who derives as much value from speed and defense.
Then, perhaps, the sides could get together on a longer contract that would buy out more free agent years. An 11-year deal that runs through the 2036 season would keep Crow-Armstrong in town for the rest of his prime and buy out six free agent years. An 11-year, $187MM guarantee would narrowly eclipse Merrill by both guarantee and AAV, while also narrowly beating out the eight-year, $184MM contract the Cubs gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason for the largest deal in franchise history.
It would be a risky investment given Crow-Armstrong’s lackluster plate discipline, which left him with the third-highest swinging-strike rate in the majors this year. Given that risk and the fact that Crow-Armstrong is not set to even reach arbitration until next winter, it would be understandable if the Cubs decided to wait and see how the 2026 season played out before committing that sort of money to their center fielder.
On the other hand, the upside in Crow-Armstrong’s profile is obvious and Chicago’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market on free agents in recent years could mean that waiting another year could put Crow-Armstrong out of Chicago’s price range entirely. Rolling the dice on an extension for Crow-Armstrong could be the team’s best bet of securing a long-term, star-caliber talent. Meanwhile, it would be understandable if Crow-Armstrong was motivated to lock in long-term financial security ahead of a 2026-27 offseason where a contentious round of collective bargaining over the sport’s economic future is widely expected.
Jed Hoyer under orders from ownership will give him low ball offers until they eventually trade him for a pitcher with a sore arm and two other guys who will never see a major league game unless they buy a ticket. Don’t forget they never “repurposed” the $30 million salary of Bellinger that they dumped before the 2025 season
🤣
BTW, they did repurpose the Bellinger money. They paid Tucker $10 million more than they would have Paredes. $14 million went to pickups later in the year; Rogers, Castro, Kittredge, Soroka, and Civale weren’t free. $2.5 million went to the Yankees to pay Bellinger. That’s close to Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary. At least, they didn’t go over the CBT line again.
@Bucket Number Six; C’mon don’t go bringing facts into the hate Hoyer convo.
PCA’s issue is he has (so far anyway), stubbornly resisted the need for a disciplined strike zone.
It’s still early, but he’s reminding me of Javy Baez- great defense but would swing at anything.
PCA reminds me of Baez. Swings for the fences every time, but the fans cheer and blow him constantly, so he feels that he doesn’t need to change to become a great MLB player
Ironic that Baez was the one PCA was traded for.
That and jerkface, which is already providing divisive amongst fans, much less adversaries. At least El Mago displayed a real joy for the game and didn’t pout his way through adversity. Baseball supposed to be fun, no?
Honestly I would need to see more from him before committing that kind of money. He has talent for sure, but a lot of “one year wonders” in the past have had talent. His second half drop off could just be a misnomer, but it could also show that he is not going to be able to change his game to compensate for pitchers “figuring him out.” If he ends up even coming close to replicating his 2025 season in the first month or two of 2026, I would try to lock him up. But if he struggles in April and May, I would really start to question if I had the new Domonic Brown or Steven Souza.
I agree. He is the most exciting player in baseball to watch IMO when he’s on and I really want to root for him. But during his run early in the season, I kept waiting for the other shoe to drop and it did moreso than I had feared
I want to bet on him being that player again, but if it were my money, I would not make that bet
Good points, but please look up the word “misnomer.” It is being misused a lot nowadays; please don’t be part of that
Be careful about correcting hiflew. He’s banned several of us for “transgressing” against him..
Don’t worry…I’m sure a lot will miss out on Alan’s correction. He’s probably one of the most muted trolls for the site. I keep him just to see what the next submission of lunacy may be.
Yeah I didn’t think that was the correct word to use, but the correct word just didn’t come to me.
“outlier,” maybe? “Anomaly”?
That is it. It was anomaly. Hence the “nom” that came to mind.
So you’re saying misnomer is a misnomer? Deep Carlin stuff. You ma’am, are on a roll
It might be a syllogism, but I can’t prove it.
A man. A plan. A canal. Panama
That, and don’t eat anything bigger than your head
Just like the Brewers needed to see more from Chourio and the Diamondbacks needed to see more from Carroll.
@CubFan: Well, if you think PCA is remotely comparable to either of those stars, I don’t agree with you.
Alan, it’s ok that you can’t spot talent. I’m sure you’re still a good guy.
You are right Alan in that PCA has been better than both. Neither Carroll nor Chourio has put up a 6.0 WAR season yet. Although Carroll came close at 5.8 WAR this season. Chourio has not come close. Those two need to step up their game.
@CubFan: Actually, you’re wrong on both counts.
@surfer: I’ve spent a long life among fellow Cubs fans who overrate Cubs players. You (and PCA) are just the latest. The only difference is that now you have junk statistics like WAR to back up your erroneous evaluations.
If you would rather see PCA come up to the plate than Chourio or Carroll with the game on the line, you need to get a new hobby.
Junk statistics because they don’t support your poor argument? Those three players are all comparable offensively if you look at their statistics. But Pete’s defense is superior by far to either of those players. I’d rather have his glove in the outfield with the game on the line.
I 💯% agree with Alan53.
Carroll and Chouruo are superior players over Crow-Armstrong. A less than .300 OBP is NOT what a star player makes. Bogus defensive sabremetric statistics boost a WAR stat that is erroneously used here. I like PCA and he is a solid player because his defense warrants it, but Carroll for sure and even Chourio are already better. Crow-Armstrong should get an extension but not at those two price range, IMO!
I am a Padres fan.
6.0 WAR is better than 5.8 or 2.2 although only marginally better than Carroll.
If you think WAR is a junk statistic, you don’t know enough about baseball to intelligently discuss the sport. Try something more your speed like checkers.
If you think hitting is all there is to baseball, then you have just added to the preponderance of evidence that shows you have no idea what you are talking about.
PCA was a better hitter than Chourio this season.
Baseball has never been my hobby. For 42 years it’ has been my job.
CubsFan, if someone says that WAR is a junk statistic in nearly 100% of the cases it’s because they don’t understand the math that goes into WAR and really don’t understand the game at all. Like Alan, most think baseball is only about hitting.
You might have trouble believing this, surfer, but I don’t care a damn what you think of me.
PCA was a better on the offensive side of the game than Chourio. 118 OPS+ to 112 OPS+.
Defense matters. If you don’t understand that basic fact, there is nothing that can be done to help you understand baseball.
If you didn’t care, you would not have answered. Obviously, you do care. Why try to lie when you just proved that you do?
What I have trouble believing is that someone that is a troll like you and brings absolutely nothing to the table in terms of baseball knowledge continues to try commenting here.
Exactly this ☝️
Those bogus defensive WAR numbers also dont age well into his 30s. Could see PCA maxing out as an Andruw Jones type or some 4th OF type like that Rays guy
WAR. Huh. What is it good fer?
The fault of those stars. Wasn’t that chic flic with Aaron Rodgers fake girlfriend?
Alan53
If you would rather see PCA come up to the plate than Chourio or Carroll with the game on the line, you need to get a new hobby.
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That’s inappropriate. No one on the planet thinks PCA is a better hitter than those two. That doesn’t mean they are bad comps. The comp should be on age, team control, and total production, not just hitting.
juggernaut
Carroll for sure and even Chourio are already better. Crow-Armstrong should get an extension but not at those two price range
==================
Carroll is a star, but even at that, that type of extension is still reasonable.
But if they signed him for a Chourio contract, that is a flat-out steal. It’s $82M/8 + 2 options. PCA would fire his agent if that’s all he got.
websoulsurfer
Baseball has never been my hobby. For 42 years it’ has been my job.
===========================
Bookie? Because I did that in the 5th grade, so we have something in common.
Yeah baseball has been his job for 42 years: batting clean up. Clean up in aisle 7!
I GUESS he is a journalist, which job designation can mean many things nowadays, some of which have little to do with journalism as it has been generally understood for centuries. In any case, he is weird enough in his self-presentation that I think it is best for us all to just stay away.
Hasn’t he made some colossal miscues with the game on the line, going after impossible plays or making some boneheaded mental gaffes? For all the value associated with chasing down balls for a rotation specializing in soft contact, can anecdotally think of at least a half dozen games lost to showy defensive play. He’s more hot dog Jim Edmonds than sure handed Kiermaier or Andruw Jones. Or Sammy showing off that cannon by throwing to the wrong base.
More than your troll responses.
Joe, the only reason Chourio got that contract was that the Brewers signed him before he had played a game in the majors. PCA has 2 seasons and a 6.0 WAR superstar level season in 2025.
After playing I was a college coach, amateur and pro scout and cross checker, and currently an owner/partner in baseball academies in 7 states. I let Las Vegas casinos take my bets. It’s illegal in California as Ohtani and his agent found out.
I didn’t say it COULDN’T work, I just said I would need to see more. And I would’ve needed to see more of Chourio and Carroll also. I do think it is convenient that you brought up Chourio and Carroll, but failed to mention Colt Keith, Evan White, Scott Kingery, Eloy Jimenez, Jon Singleton, and Luis Robert. You cannot just cherry pick the two that seemingly worked out well and forget the rest.
I do think it is convenient that you brought up Chourio and Carroll,
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I didn’t bring up Chourio and Carroll; Alan did.
Nice Dom Brown reference!
“…knock him far out of the MVP conversation.”
Wouldn’t go that far. Seems a bit extreme. Not an MVP, but I’d say he’s somewhere in the top 5 for NL votes. Not sure the Cubs are in the playoffs without him. MVP isn’t ‘completely’ statistical.
Yes, it was the combination of Tucker and PCA’s hot hitting during the first half that was a major factor in building a big lead to make the postseason.
Being part of a combination that is a major factor in building a big lead during the first half to a postseason berth in an expanded postseason does not an MVP make, unless it’s a participation trophy. Final 8! Final 8!
Pete Crow-Armstrong is an immature hothead who needs to grow up before I would consider giving him any kind of extension.
Jarred Kelineck vibes with more talent.
Kelenic blessed us with big dumper so I give him credit for that
He also has no eyebrows.
And jerkface
the Cubs should trade this young man to the Yankees, forthwith
No real reason to do this. He’s a good outfielder but will never be a dependable hitter. He’s not the kind of guy you want to lock in.
Just offer him 100 and he doesn’t take it enjoy him until he’s a free agent
How about another extension for Nico? That may be less expensive than one for PCA.
They can afford both.
Mets lost a good one here. The CF they now need. Alas, we lament as fans.
Cubs have another that might work Kevin Alacantra
That would be a terrible contract. He started hot than faded. The league adjusted. If he cant adjust back 30/30 wont happen again.
Overrated.
Young players are the best bargain in MLB. This dude is gonna make less than a million next year, and $5M or so the year after. Teams are too quick to hand out big contracts many years before they have to.
It’s just that their demands get ridiculous once they’ve established themselves. Better to invest early (if the kid is showing an extremely high ceiling), than waiting til no one but the 3 or 4 biggest spenders will pay him.
It’s all about trying to buy future years. His 4-5-6 years of control might cost $45M. How much would you buy out some FA years for?
Looks like he will miss the Super Two cutoff so assuming he continues to play at the same level or close to 2025 (5-6 WAR), in his 3 years of arbitration eligibility something like:
$10-11 million
$17-18 million
$26-27 million
Then $37-38 million or more AAV in free agency.
If the Cubs bought out 3 years of free agency along with 2026 and his 3 arbitration years you are looking at minimums of $1 million or so for 2026, $53 million in arbitration, and then $111 million for those 3 FA years for a total of 7/$165 million. Again, that is a minimum and only for 7 years. If he continues to improve it could be much, much more. If the contract is for 12-13 years it could easily top $300 million.
If the Cubs wait a year and he puts up 5-6 WAR in 2026 then they will be looking at a $300 million price tag to extend PCA.
I never believe in extending players that are 4-5 years away from free agency. Doesn’t make sense, let the players prove themselves. Would Tatis or Julio Rod get more money with the production that they have garnered over the huge extensions that they signed previously? I doubt it and the teams take all the risks. Outside of lowball extensions like Albies and Acuna, they are never a good idea
@LFGMets: Still don’t get why you—and others—-claim that the Acuna deal was a “lowball extension.” That contract was the largest ever signed by a player of his age and service class. Judging the deal by today’s standards is disingenuous.
LFGMets (Metsin7) #BannedAgain&Again&AgainFireStearns
Would Tatis or Julio Rod get more money
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Compare both of them to whatever you think Tucker will get. I think Tucker is overrated, but $240M/8 is the opening bid, and could easily get $300M.
If Tatis were a FA this year, he might get $400M.instead of the $292M he is signed for.
JRod’s contract is a lot more complex, but my guess is that Seattle’s option will be at $260M/8. And he too might be looking at $400M.
So both Tatis (automatic) and JRod (likely) would’ve done better had they played out without an extension.
Split the difference between Merrill and Rodgriguez and pay the man before he gets extraordinarily expensive. 5-6 WAR players are exceptionally rare.
Misused. I believe some players are uncomfortable at certain places in the batting order and his extremely overrated manager had him everywhere. I think he would have made a great lead off hitter and would have done better left in one place. Time to extend Nico.
Defense is half the game and that PCA was one of the best defensive players in baseball in 2025. A run saved on defense is worth a run produced at the plate.
Stats for the entire season are what matters, not those for half. Or should we discount Cal Raleigh’s season since he had an OPS+ 40 points lower in the 2nd half and only 22 HR? Or Aaron Judge’s season because his OPS+ was 40 pts lower in the 2nd half and he only had 18 HR? Nope. All are incredible seasons.
Pay the man before he gets too expensive.
Well write the check yourself if you think he;s the end all to end all…..your clueless…..ever play the game or where you the checkers champion
So you are saying this is your alt account and I called you out for not understanding baseball on another one of your accounts? Thanks for pointing that out. Muted.
Is he Eric Davis or Kevin Kiermeier? Need more evidence.
More evidence after a 6.0 WAR season = more dollars spent. Another 5-6 WAR season and the cost of an extension to the Cubs goes up into the Tatis range. Is one more season worth $150-180 million more?
Both Davis and Kiermaier had 36 WAR careers. Davis over 17 years and Kiermaier over 12. Both had career years with 6-7 WAR seasons at age 25. PCA had a 6 WAR season at age 23.
For a 34 game stretch starting on April 13, PCA slashed .331/.348/.750/1.098. Prior to that, he slashed .197/.264/.258/.521 in 17 games and slashed .226/.271/.424/.695 in 106 games after that.
In other words, Cubs should definitely wait and not hand out a massive extension based on what amounts to one hot month. He’s still worth something for his defense alone, but they need to make sure he can hit a little bit before paying.
So .247 in today’;s MLB is “Super Stardom”……and please no analytics freaks with their endless array of stats screaming at me and damming me to hell……kids got a tick better than 2 seasons in the majors and already the HOF is calling……gosh how far major league standards have fallen…..worshiping at the alter of analytics…..
If you are uninformed enough to believe that BA tells you anything about a player’s value on the field, then you are not smart enough to try to discuss the sport with.
As I said….another commentor worshiping at the analytics alter…..exactly what type of damage does a guy do when he gets 24 hits per 100 at bats brainiac……your the dumb_ss here……
But OBP does
No do not sign an extension with PCA until he proves he can hit a full year like he did in the first half of this year. We dont need another Jason Heyward flop contract. He hits then I agree sign him if not then NO
I’d want to see him hit like he did for the whole season before I signed up long term if it’s like the first half’s put pen to paper. If like second half ride it out.
The Cubs should back up the brinks truck ASAP bc he’s a superstar that definitely wasn’t exposed in the second half and is totally mature and not a whiny hothead.
Not really sure why this is even a topic of discussion.
1. PCA would be a fool to sign an extension when he will probably make just as much if not more from arbitration through 2030 if he has any kind of success at all.
2. Ricketts isn’t giving out a bunch of long term contracts until there’s a new CBA a fact he’s stated many times.
3. There are way more important things to be doing this off season like re signing Keller, Figuring out what to do with Imanaga, Getting Caissie ready to take over for Tucker( Maybe Winter ball?) Figuring out what to do with Assad, Brown, Wicks, Little, Kittredge, Pomeranz, Thielbar, Sanders and Noland.
4. Jed’s got quite enough on his plate without confusing him anymore about what to do with a guy who HE ALREADY CONTROLS for 4 more years. Do you people want to give him a concussion?
Figures a clown would make a whole Lotta sense
People here think I pick on Jed. But that would be like pranking the Special Ed kids in Jr. High.
Where’s the guy that calls him Frodo or Pippin or some such Hobbit thingy?
It was Gollum. Must have the precious! People here went nuts when I called him that. Said I was being mean to him.
Mean to Gollum? Don’t think CGI guy has a care in the world. Making good bank, baking in the sun down by the riverbank, panning for lucre, waiting for his turn at good fortune
Aloha Uncle, I admit I wanted the organization to wrap up PCA’s controllable years and get a few years of extension. But I now think he needs to show he can mature more with his plate approach as well as how he conducts himself through tough periods. And like you said, they have some time to work a deal out. Doesn’t have to be done today. The pitching situation is important and how RF will play out with Seiya/Caissie and so forth. Mahalo
Good day, Uncle…..I agree with you 100%—IF you flop your #2 and #1 (Ha).
This was day off of the World Series Nick Deeds, “hey, let me write about the Cubs so people open the story” stuff.
Would have gotten the same string of replies if the title was Extension Candidate: matt Shaw.
This shouldn’t be and certainly won’t be a topic of discussion in the public forum. The Cubs and Jed certainly aren’t going to ever make specific statements about any negotiation and PCA and agent have no leverage in making anything public.
I’m mostly with you—but OK to be a topic of discussion here—but certainly an irrelevant one at this point.
mike127- I’m not even sure why the Cubs would want to do this at all. I mean in arbitration if his performance goes down then so would his salary so they’re covered. On the other hand if he becomes a star he gets paid and at least the Cubs are paying off on something they already got so win for them. I mean basically in arbitration he gets paid on his performance whatever it may be so why would you want to mess that up? It’s pretty much a perfect system FOR THE TEAM as it’s pay for performance so why would you mess that up? The only way they win is if they get him to sign a low ball offer and then he explodes and why would HE want to do that? If I was him and had his talent I’d bet on myself an laugh at the Cubs all the way to the bank. This whole premise is a fools errand.
Aloha Uncle, good point about the arbitration process and in regard PCA. I want him to succeed and he has to show consistency throughout an entire season. Same goes for the other young players e.g. Shaw, Caissie, Moises, Horton. I also think the looming CBA agreement affects future spending starting with this off season. Mahalo
I understand the issues with his K/W, and his splits, but his floor is really high. But I’d go halfway between Chourio and Carroll Maybe $100M/8, but he probably declines.
For 3 months? How about he proves he can play the full 6 months. Why not extend Happ again. So Cub.
Dang hanley, was thinking it was the off-season. Glad to see you have a team to care about as the weather changes.
I think you should wait for two years. Oh wait, he has two years. Over 2024-2025, he has a 106 OPS+, and has averaged > 5 bWAR/600 ABs.
Of course, you could wait, but you’d be gambling that he does repeat 2025.
The free spending dodgers vs the likes of the cubs for Tucker- you’ve got to be joking! Dodgers all the way so why bother to make an offer except just to show cubs fan.dom. Because we’re that naive.
And the cubs could use the likes of both cease and king but they’ll be outbid on both.
When the dodgers signs straz and tucker to put teams overall payroll even more out of sight and they go onto win 5 or 6 in a row world series in a row, will roberts say anything about competitive balance negatively?
So the dodgers betts won the Clemente. So big city won out again with their opportunities and resources. Taking nothing away from mookie but what chances did anyone else reasonably have especially those in smaller markets?
Beginning a sentence with “then, perhaps, the sides…” is both terrible writing and grammatically incorrect. All you need is “perhaps” without any commas. Deeds is awful at his job.