The Cubs made an effort to lock up center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong during Spring Training. At the time, an MLB.com report indicated that Chicago made an offer that could have maxed out around $75MM had all the option years been exercised — though the actual guarantee would have checked in lower than that.
Last week, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Cubs offered a guarantee in the $60-70MM range before the season started. Crow-Armstrong obviously wasn’t persuaded by that, and his asking price has surely only increased after a monster start to the year. Most extensions are concentrated during Spring Training or within the opening two to three weeks of the regular season. Players often prefer to table discussions to avoid potential distractions during the summer months.
Heyman nevertheless wrote last week that the Cubs were making “in-season overtures” to Crow-Armstrong’s camp. He indicated the team was willing to up its offer from the spring. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer predictably didn’t comment on the team’s new price range but told Patrick Mooney of The Athletic on Tuesday that the front office is willing to keep negotiations going. “Not talking during the season, to me, that’s a player-focused thing,” Hoyer told Mooney. “I’m not playing. I’ve got time to negotiate if they want.”
While Hoyer didn’t go into detail about the current state of conversations, he spoke about the reporting from April. Hoyer stated that the sides “hadn’t talked in a couple weeks when (word of the offer) leaked out” and added that “the number that came out about that wasn’t right.” MLB.com had initially reported that the offer was in the $75MM range before correcting that that number represented the approximate maximum value, including what was presumably at least one club option year.
Crow-Armstrong is playing at a level that’d put him in the MVP conversation if he keeps it up all year. He took a .280/.310/.565 slash line across 229 plate appearances into tonight’s game. He has swiped 14 bases in 17 attempts while already establishing a new career high with 14 home runs. He’s added 13 doubles and three triples and is tied for fourth in MLB (behind Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and teammate Seiya Suzuki) with 30 extra-base hits.
That would play at any position. It’s particularly remarkable from a player whose primary asset is his glove. Crow-Armstrong has been viewed as an elite defensive center fielder throughout his professional career. His early MLB results have supported that evaluation. The 23-year-old leads all outfielders with nine Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. He tied for sixth by that metric during his 2024 rookie campaign.
There’s probably still some trepidation about Crow-Armstrong’s offensive approach. He’s among the most aggressive hitters in MLB. He has walked in fewer than 4% of his plate appearances. This season’s success has come despite a middling .310 on-base percentage. The approach was certainly an issue during his debut campaign, as he hit .237/.286/.384 last year.
Crow-Armstrong entered this season with 170 days of major league service, putting him two days shy of one full service year. He’s a lock to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player at the end of the ’26 season. He will not reach free agency for another five years after this one, however. If the sides were to negotiate a deal that goes into effect next year, he’d be in the 1-2 year service class.
As Front Office subscribers can see with MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jackson Merrill established a new standard for players in that bracket with this spring’s $135MM deal. Merrill probably took something of a hometown discount, but he also had a higher established offensive baseline than Crow-Armstrong does. Merrill hit 24 homers with a .292/.326/.500 slash over a full season as a 21-year-old rookie. He’s also a plus center fielder, albeit not quite the caliber of defender that Crow-Armstrong is. Merrill is an aggressive hitter in his own right, but he’s had sustained offensive success essentially from the moment he reached the big leagues.
Though Crow-Armstrong may have a comparable or even slightly higher ceiling, he’s not as established. During Spring Training, the Cubs seemingly valued him in the next tier of young hitters. An offer in the $60-70MM range would have aligned with recent deals for Lawrence Butler and Ezequiel Tovar. Crow-Armstrong has clearly played himself above that group within the past couple months, but there’s a broad range between them and Merrill.
Let’s be frank the Cubs have been so lucky so far other then JH when it comes to players not signing JB , KB etc that said not many teams going to go all in for the next 30 plus years Like LA or SP .. Make a good fair offer to PCA if he takes it great if not then not a lot can happen in the next few years
I would say JH was smart not to bring back Baez and kb, obviously both had red flags at the time and both turned out to be horrible
I don’t blame him for not extending PCA because everyone thought that he wouldn’t do anything offensively, but now he’s turned himself into a potential 8+ war player which should get him at least 100 mil
8 WAR is a high bar. That would put him in Tatis, Jr. territory. If can take some more walks, $150M wouldn’t be out of the question before next season.
Definitely a high bar. Few players have eight win seasons. That’s MVP territory.
Tatis jr has never been an 8 WAR player even when using peds.
PCA v. Tatis 2025:
PCA:
Avg exit velocity 89.7 (44th percentile)
Hard hit % 41.3 (42nd percentile)
expected line: .266/.347/.525
Tatis:
Avg exit velocity 93.9 (95th percentile)
Hard hit % 53.7 (94th percentile)
expected line: .289/.387/.552
PCA is extremely promising but he still has a lot of blue.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/pete-crow-arm…
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/fernando-tati…
O’Neil Cruz avg exit velocity is over 97. Does Tatis have a ways to go to be as good as O’Neil Cruz?
@Mets Era Thumping Soto
Appears like you’re trying to pick an argument only so you can be right.
My original comment was for @sad who posited that PCA can be a 8+ WAR player. If that is his talent ceiling, the Cubs would be justified to offer him a career contract, not $100M.
I just don’t like hearing about Tatis a PED user. It’s not far for any player to be compared to him in contract negotiations. He’s a cheat and always will be.
Yeah, my concern with him is other teams are going to figure out pretty quickly that he chases a lot. Baseball is a game of adjustments. PCA will have to get much more selective and a little more patient if he’s to keep thriving.
O’Neill Cruz is a freak athlete with some of the loudest tools in the game.
The reason he isn’t in Tatis’ league is due to striking out so much more. The gap between a 32.2% strikeout rate versus 19.4% isn’t the kind of thing that you can ignore.
Don’t need to extend him now. Until 2027 at the latest. Maybe even this winter. Focus on Tucker tbh
Why in the world would Tucker sign an extension when he’s about to get a kings ransom in the open market?
I personally don’t think Tucker wants to sign anything right now , he wants to hit the open market and he’s probably aiming for that Juan Soto payday and I highly doubt the cubs will come close to that .
Cubs are probably thinking that the Ohtani deal was pretty cheap now compared to what’s going to happen moving forward.
The Cubs are the Cheapest team when it comes to long term contracts for some reason they are still trying to get top players for that 200 to 250 million 5/6 year contracts.
That said I think KT is good but is he Soto money good ? Idk all that said The biggest issue I have is you don’t give up players like the cubs did for a 1 year rental
I just meant Tucker should be a priority to bring back. Not necessarily extend him. Which likely won’t happen. They’ll have to re-sign him or try to once the season ends.
Cmon Cubies let’s lock up PCA and quickly!!!
Doesn’t mean you don’t resign players although this wouldn’t count much mostly arbitration years plus a couple extra. It’s still very early for him and good for him but I thought of him as an A+ CF which alone has great value and a guy who could handle himself at the plate. If this is any indicator of his power potential the Cubs made a hell of a pick. Average offense with that defense in center of all places is a keeper. He hits like this he’ll be one of the most valuable players in MLB. If he believes he can keep it up id play it a bit slower
I said it all preseason this guy is 30-50 waiting to happen. Got a lot of laughs back on that.
It’s hard being king of the hill in fantasy baseball. It’s easy to not sell yourself short. Bet on your self pca. Absolutely.
He’s gonna out produce that number easily. Wait till he really gets a grip and becomes a +.300 hitter.
But then in the mean time this is vintage Eric Davis everyone and it’s beautiful to watch.
When he is hitting .215 at the end of the season, they will be eating crow.
And you were probably one of the doofs that said he was all field and no hit. Haters never give up.
Doof is just food backwards, and crow is food, so eat up.
Ooo, was that one from middle school? You’ll be nowhere to be found when he’s still cookin’ at season’s end.
If he keeps the elite CF defense, he can hit 0.225 with 25 homers and 40 steals annually and be worth $100 million. If he could just get a few more walks, he could be worth even more.
I’m sure they are lmfao
He’s already one of the best defensive CF in MLB and his speed helps the Cubs manufacture runs. I think both defense, and the ability to manufacture runs (especially when it’s cold at Wrigley during the playoffs) is sometimes underrated in today’s game.
He’s already walked nine times, nearly half of what he did in 123 games last year, so I think he’s definitely making an effort to cut down on swinging at stuff outside the zone. If he continues to stay healthy and lay off the junk outside the zone, I can definitely see why the Cubs would want to lock him up now. The deal would be an absolute bargain and give them more flexability to keep Tucker. Which is precisely why I wouldn’t do it if I’m PCA.
Unless he just really wants to guarantee he stays in Chicago, signing another deal now is too early. He’s only 23, so there’s no reason to think this year’s power and SBs represent a career year at all. This year shows a young player who’s continuing to grow and improve his game at the MLB level. PCA’s not a “finished product” yet.
@Naval He’s walking at an even lower rate then he was last year. G
Plate appearances not games played is what’s most relevant there.
All and all though he is great young talent. Hopefully in time he develops a bit more plate discipline to go with all the other things he does exceptionally well.
He’s only 2 two days short of just one year of service time and has come a long way. No reason to think he won’t improve the walk numbers as he gets more experience.
They need to lock him up but that contract has skyrocketed in the past 2 months. If he’s smart he will cash in a couple of years beyond arb, and leave space for one big contract after.
Might as well secure your future PCA – win win.
PCA does a lot of things well, power, defense, speed, but that OBP is low.
as a Mets fan I cringe every time I read a story about PCA. if we still had Javy It wouldnt sting so bad though.
If we still had Javy it would sting even worse. One of the dumbest trades in baseball history.
Actually, in 2025, Javy Baez has a higher OPS+ of 118 and WAR of 1. 4 than Brett Baty (113, 1.3), Luisangel Acuna (81, 0.4) and Mark Vieto (95, -0.2).
So, yes, the trade of PCA was a horrible one for the Mets. Yes, Javy Baez is a bloated bad conttract. BUT… Javy Lopez is better in 2025 and would be adding value if the Mets acquired him for mere cash considerations.
Great it doesn’t take away the crap years in between the Mets would have had. There is almost zero difference in Baty’s numbers and his. No one in the world doesn’t think Vientos will have a better year going forward. I’m not sure why you are comparing them anyway since Baez is now an outfielder.
I just came in to see how many fans disliked PCA. That was fairly common 2 months ago.
Why would he take the incredibly low ball offer from the Cubs? Do these players not realize how much they will get paid in arbitration anyway? I’m sure his endorsement money alone will set him up for life.
PCA has a similar profile to Baez when he was with the Cubs. Low OBP, high slug and a lot of hits so his batting average was above 270, with stellar defense. I’m guessing it’s going to take at 100m to get PCA and his camp to start talking.
I personally don’t mind his offensive profile since the defense and speed are very good. Ricketts and Hoyer need to pay the price for a premium hitter who at worst is a 5-6 WAR player.
An extension for 2 months of playing good in a 6 month season seems Cub. Spend it on pitching.
It would be smart for pca to take a shorter deal..fill his pockets a bit now then while he is in his mid 20s in his prime he can get a monster contract
Should a players K%, BB%, LD%, GB% and FB% total to 100%? Intuitively, it feels like it should, but i note that PCAs add to approximately 113%. Can anyone provide some clarity?
Perhaps line drives also qualify as fly balls???
Seeing that his line drive rate is just over 23% and his fly ball rate is about 37% that could be it. I doubt that his hitting the ball in the air over 60% of the time.
The math isn’t exact, but it’s awfully close.
I’m assuming you are looking at Baseball Reference. The K% and BB% are per PA. The other ones are per batted balls. Those add up to less than 100%. The remainder is bunts and pop ups. I think Fangraphs has the complete batted ball breakdown.
FG does add up to 100%.
Launch angles: 0°-9° are groundballs; 10°-25° are linedrives; 26°+ are flyballs
Thank you for your responses, BNS and YBC. I was looking at BR. Makes sense to use batted balls vs PAs for GB, LD and FB percentages.
I lament the day mets traded pca
For absolutely nothing
Javy ➡️ 👎
Chicago was Bryce Harper’s targeted destination but Tommy Ricketts wouldn’t pay him what he’s worth. They traded for Kyle Tucker and he’s going to walk away at the end of the season and I’m sure they’ll keep lowballing PCA. Ownership’s focus hasn’t been on the field in years as they continue to try to buy up all the properties near the park in Wrigleyville. Baez and Trevor Williams for Crow-Armstrong looks like a great trade however this is the same organization that didn’t tender Kyle Schwarber a contract.
Why try to sign him at a discount? The Cubs print money – offer PCA the Merrill deal… take it or leave it.
Mr. Ricketts and family, Mr.Hoyer get it done. Yesterdays value is not today’s value. Dude is a Cub.
Let’s see him for a full year and buyout his arbitration years and a year or two of free agency at that point if called for.
Not a long enough track record to warrant much more than what was allegedly offered already.
He’s doing great, but I’m sure the front office wants to see if his production keeps up with the long dredge of the season especially after the weather heats up.
Conditioning will be key for his future earning potential.