The Mariners have not exactly been shy about their desire to re-sign first baseman Josh Naylor as he heads into free agency this winter. For a club that seemingly does not have much financial flexibility this offseason, that could take up the majority of Seattle’s budget space, and would seemingly make reunions with second baseman Jorge Polanco and third baseman Eugenio Suarez unlikely. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times offered some additional perspective on the club’s trio of pending free agent infielders yesterday that suggests things may not be that simple, however.
While Naylor has been emphasized as the club’s priority, Divish suggests that it’s possible Polanco actually winds up being the one most likely to sign. That’s in part due to Naylor’s age, with Divish noting that he’s likely to seek a deal longer than three years in free agency. That’s the sort of contract that has typically fallen outside of Seattle’s comfort zone under Dipoto in free agency, although it’s not hard to imagine that the Mariners might view Naylor as an exception to that. After all, the club has been willing to go far beyond the two years and $24MM Mitch Garver deal that remains Dipoto’s largest expenditure in free agency when it comes to extensions. Luis Castillo extended on a five-year deal in his age-29 season, while Cal Raleigh’s six-year extension came in his age-28 campaign.
Naylor won’t turn 29 until next June, so committing to a player who has already spent time in the organization on a deal that takes him to his age-32 or -33 season is hardly unthinkable in a vacuum. Even so, it’s undeniable that Polanco’s contract is far more likely to fall into the Mariners’ typical comfort zone when it comes to free agents. Divish writes that Polanco is likely to command a contract “similar” to the aforementioned Garver deal and that he’s unlikely to receive a third guaranteed year on his next contract. There’s some logic to that assumption given the tough market Polanco found in free agency last winter, although he’s coming off a much stronger season in 2025 even has he heads into his age-32 campaign.
With that said, if the Mariners will attempt to wait out the market on their three infielders in order to try and bring one back at a relative bargain, Polanco standing as the most likely one to fall through the cracks due to his age, injury history, and previous struggles on the open market would make some sense. At the very least, that sort of scenario seems to be the kind of situation where Divish sees a reunion between the Mariners and Suarez as a possibility. Divish writes that, as Suarez heads into his age-34 season with his 35th birthday coming next July, a contract that keeps him in Seattle beyond one additional year seems “unlikely.” Coming off a season where he clubbed 49 home runs and made his second career All-Star appearance, it’s hard to imagine that Suarez won’t be able to get at least a two-year deal in free agency this winter barring a surprisingly cold market.
Given Seattle’s apparent financial limitations, it’s hard to imagine more than one of their trio of free agent infielders returning in 2026 unless a trade opens up additional payroll space this winter. RosterResource projects them for a $132MM payroll in 2025 as things stand, roughly $31MM below their stated target. While it’s at least theoretically possible that two of the three could fit within that budget without shedding salary, it would leave them with virtually no room to maneuver beyond that.
That would be a problem when other areas of the roster could use attention besides the infield, as Divish floats the possibility of bringing in relief help to fortify a bullpen that will lose Caleb Ferguson this winter or perhaps making an addition in the outfield, where Victor Robles and Dominic Canzone currently appear poised to platoon in right, as other possible avenues for the Mariners to upgrade this winter. Even if Robles and Canzone remain in place as the likely duo in right field, finding a platoon partner for Luke Raley at DH or upgrading the bench could be worthwhile pursuits to explore as well.
Sounds like it will be back to the junk pile again for dippy and the boys! They will never make the world series…Ever
Not with that attitude
I get that Seattle isn’t a big market, not trying to go all in with the core of this team is crazy. They might not get a better chance at this, and it’s not like we’re talking about signing Kyle Tucker. They are at most looking at signing a total of what – 8 years of total obligation? Maybe $180mm total spread across 3 players?
Logic has never stopped the Mariners ownership before.
Seattle is a pretty big market, a lot of big-tech companies and their money, it’s basically San Francisco North. We just have cheap owners
It’s not uncommon for business owners to prioritize net profit. 2/3 of MLB franchises do it. Following a big spending team might ease some angst.
Seattle ranks from 11-15 among MLB in most estimates of media market size.
I can see the Mets easily outbidding the Mariners for Naylor and letting Alonso walk. Although he won’t hit as many homers and knock in as many runs over the next 4 years or so, he’s younger and a better fielder.
I’m a self-aware idiot, but I’m not sure committing to Naylor on a contract longer than 3 or 4 years is wise. With his body type (sorry, don’t mean to fat shame), Naylor may not maintain his current level of production for long. Without conducting a deep dive analysis, could a Prince Fielder-like decline be more possible for Naylor? Of course, front offices take this stuff into consideration when offering contracts to free agents or extensions (like Buxton’s injury history built into his contract extension), So maybe Seattle can get creative with a longer term offer that won’t hinder them much should Naylor’s body not hold up over the life of the contract. Again, just an observation from a guy who doesn’t know much.
What’s wrong with Naylor’s body size?
-Tony Gwynn
-kirby puckett
hoof hearted
What’s wrong with Naylor’s body size?
-Tony Gwynn
-kirby puckett
————
Would either player like to gain 50 pounds to compete with Naylor?
Naylor is in his 20s being that big.
Nothing. It’s the type not the size. He is an endomorph. Broad hips, well muscled, low center of gravity. Fat deposits on them easily and hits the middle region first. They have to work harder than other body types to stay on top of it.
The Athletic has his contract estimated at 4 years, so you’re not alone.
I like many others made the same argument against resigning Cal. I was wrong; one cannot really know what the future holds.
Fielder’s neck is what did him in was it a weight issue, I really don’t know.
Retaining Naylor and Polanco with the ~$35M they should have should be doable. Naylor’s looking at likely ~$20M AAV. Polanco should be around $12.5M AAV.
Geno feels as good as gone. Even if he takes a 1 or 2 year deal, it will likely be at a premium AAV ($20M+) which would strain their stated payroll limit given that Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson are strong in house replacement candidates.
I do think Castillo has a decent chance at being moved given Logan Evans can be a serviceable 5th starter (or they can get a cheap veteran) and Kade Anderson and Jurrangelo Cijinte are top prospects who could debut in 2026. Another team would likely be willing to take on the full $48.5M guaranteed on Castillo’s deal and his no-trade expires early in the offseason.
That would give them ~$60M all in to work with which gives them a lot more flexibility (and could allow them to potentially be in the top end free agent player discussions – e.g. Bellinger, Alonso, Schwarber or Murakami – or trade for players like Contreras, Fairbanks or Lowe).
I do think there is a strong chance that they let each of Naylor, Polanco and Geno walk and look to the trade market to replace them.
A deal with the Rays for Yandy Diaz and/or Brandon Lowe would make sense. Similarly, a deal with the Cardinals for Willson Contreras and/or Brandon Donovan would make sense.
The worst case scenario is going for the budget Free Agents (e.g. Hoskins, Goldschmidt, Santana, Bell).
Biggest free agent contract signing under Jerry D is Mitch Garver. All free agents you named are 10 tiers minimum above Mitch Garver so seems highly unlikely
This is what drives me crazy. Not the dodgers or Yankee payroll but this. They had 2.5 million fans plus six sellouts in the playoffs. Extra tv revenue and best they can do is the cheapest option. This is what ruins parity.
As a Yankee fan who groans at the way the Yankees spend money sometimes and make weird limitations on their own spending I’d far prefer our ‘problems’ to those of a team like Seattle. Knowing the club is just pocketing so much money without putting a substantial amount back into the team is infuriating.
Shame on ownership for running the franchise like a for profit business.
Shame on ownership for running the franchise like a for profit business then still completely overcharging for EVERYTHING at the game. Family of 4 cost what $200 minimum now ?
Damn 200 bucks for a game to see Manjokes watered down version. Personally I haven’t been to a game since the Buster Posey rule. And we thought that ruined baseball ouch
Free market supply & demand. That’s our American economy. If it were too high, they would lose money & butts in the seats. Too many casual fans willing to spend will keep feeding the cash cow. On top of that; the average MLB franchise appreciates 12% every year. What would incentivize to change anything? Casual fans won’t stay away.
Probably more likely they match up with the Orioles who are looking to dump Mountcastle; I’m a big fan of fellow Canuck Naylor but so much of what he delivered since coming to Seattle – primarily the SBs, but also the batting average & energy, are hard to sustain, “big boned” or not… If the price is right, gambling on a bounce back from the younger Mountcastle makes sense. But I’m not opposed of them splitting up that rotation. Kirby has shown signs of wear, Castillo is gearing down, and Woo may have a hard time replicating those numbers, or putting 170+ innings at in a year again… Trade 1 to get that corner bat and a good prospect makes sense for a team always counting pennies…
Shouldn’t need to offer much for Mountcastle. Orioles may just nontender him.
Mountcastle is going to be non-tendered. If the Mariners pigeon-hole themselves to a Raley/Mountcastle 1B platoon, they better be landing Schwarber as the DH.
They have plenty of cash to work with. They need to land at least one of Naylor, Alonso, Murakami or a trade for Willson Contreras to play 1B. The difference Naylor made as a true 4 hole hitter was immense.
At DH, I’m a big fan of a reunion with Polanco given his ability to cover 2B/3B if the young players don’t take steps forward. But they can find other ways to cover if needed (internally a Raley/Ford/Canzone competition at least provides some OK fallback options).
The M’s cannot go into next season with question marks at each of 1B, DH, RF, 2B and 3B. They need at least two of those to be filled with players who provide a lot of confidence. The other 3 can be left to the internal options to take steps forward (and addressed in season if they don’t).
Hard pass on Mountcastle. He could get non-tendered & I wouldn’t want the M’s to sign him.
Seattle needs to resign Naylor, even if they have to overpay.
He brought energy and attitude to a team that was missing it. Not to mention his offensive output AND speed.
M’s trading Castillo for other needs will free up salary. His no trade clause is over. Trader Jerry will make things happen.
People act like trading Castillo will be easy and they act like he’ll bring back something of substantial value. He doesn’t have a ton of value and his contract just lessens it. He’ll be in the Mariners rotation next year.
He doesn’t have “speed”. He’s in the 3rd percentile for sprint speed. What he does have is exceptional baseball IQ that he uses to grab bags.
Naylor is the best FA 1B on the market this off-season. Any team with a legit need will outbid SEA, no question.
Naylor doesn’t seem to be “all about the money.” I see him staying in Seattle even if he could get more elsewhere. The contract from Seattle still has to be respectable and worth his time of course. But he meshes well with Seattle, and loves the city and fans.
I’m tired of Ryan Divish. I think it could be the way he shades his own writing and puts his own stamp of negativity on everything the Mariners Front Office says. I just listened to Jerry Dipoto’s end of season presser and he was very optimistic about ownerships financial support for this coming off-season, with Naylor & Polonco sounding like feasible re-signs. I haven’t read Divish in two years and don’t miss his downbeat doomerism. I think he needs a new job.
I think he needs a new job is a little more than I’m willing to say, but I do agree I think this is a pretty pessimistic read on the M’s situation. We have 30-35 million in payroll space for next season even before we look at non-tenders and trades (I do think Castillo could be had for somebody willing to take his contract).
Naylor and Polanco as a starting point seem doable to me.
I love Geno as much as anyone, but I don’t see him really fitting, and I don’t like the aging curve.
I think the Mariners have earned some pessimism over the years. But now isnt the time for it. The team took huge steps in 2025 and the fans and writers as well should be excited about that.
I think the Mariners need right handed bats not left handed bats. And Naylor is just not that good. He’s coming off a career year. He’s out of shape. That signing is risky.
I think Willson Contreras makes a lot of sense for the Mariners. And perhaps Arenado too. The Cardinals could use Williamson for sure.
Same Arenado who’s had a wRC+ of 107, 103 and 84 the last 3 years? Nolan has a better chance to be non tendered as compared to traded for anything of value
He has a big contract he can’t be non tendered. He plays excellent defense still. The hope would be he bounces back and is extra motivated playing for a legit contender.
What contender sees 84 wRC+ and offers anything more than the guy that the Astros gave the Twins for Correa? If that kind of lotto ticket sounds better then Nolan then I hope it happens for the cheating cards
wRC+ has been trending down every year since 2022. Where is the optimism for a bounce back? I just don’t see it
The number that leaps off the page to me is Randy Arozarena $18.2MM projected in his final year of arbitration. I like Randy, but I don’t think he’s worth that much with our other needs.
I wonder if the Boston Red Sox sold off Babe Ruth because of concerns about his body type??!!!
Were the Mariners hard capping themselves at this year’s number, or was it a vague “around last year’s number”? Those are 2 different things, and Naylor and Polanco could both fit under the 2nd definition.
If they do re-sign Naylor and Polanco, they won’t need a platoon at DH, and probably won’t have Raley. Their DH platoon will be Raleigh and Polanco.
Raley and Canzonne are superfluous. One of them likely will go in trade. And frankly, Cade Marlowe in AAA coming back from injury might be better than either of them.
With Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans and even Kade Anderson potentially available to fill the #5 spot in the rotation, and with Luis Castillo with a $24 million salary due (and a no-trade clause), the M’s may see if Castillo will OK a trade (New York Mets for prospects?).
Naylor is the M’s top priority and will be signed IF he wants to play in Seattle.; Polanco is a maybe. Suarez, not likely as the Mariners have too much K and not enough OBP/BA in their lineup and Suarez is 34. Rookie Ben Williamson at 3B looks ready, and when sent down after the deadline trade for Suarez hit .300/.400 with better power at AAA….and he’s a gold glove caliber defender at the hot corner.
If signed, Polando would be mostly DH. Cole Young appears ready at 2B and has excellent minor league numbers including an important low K rate.