Will Anyone Accept The Qualifying Offer?

Tomorrow afternoon is the deadline for players to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer. Thirteen free agents were tagged with the $22.025MM offer. It’s a formality for most of them, who’ll easily decline and command a much larger multi-year contract. Each offseason features a handful of borderline decisions, however, and we’ve seen at least one player accept in six of the past seven years. In that span, only in 2023 — when an abnormally low amount of seven players received the QO — did everyone decline.

For the purposes of this poll, we’ll exclude seven players: Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Edwin Díaz, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez. There’s no scenario in which any of them accept the qualifying offer. Most of the remaining six will decline as well, but there’s at least a small chance for any of them to accept. Players and their representatives have had the past two weeks to gauge early demand on the open market, and it’s possible someone from the group has found sufficiently lukewarm interest to consider locking in the strong one-year deal and trying again next offseason.

Zac Gallen and Michael King are each somewhat buy-low rotation options. Gallen is coming off a 4.83 earned run average across 33 starts. His strikeout rate has regressed in a few consecutive seasons, and he gave up the fourth-most home runs (31) of any pitcher in MLB. He once looked like a lock for a $100-150MM+ contract. That’s probably no longer on the table, but Gallen should have enough of a track record to decline the QO and at least command a multi-year deal with an opt-out if he wants to retest free agency.

King has been a much better pitcher than Gallen over the past two seasons. He missed most of his walk year battling a nerve issue in his shoulder. He finished the year healthy but didn’t pitch well in September. The Padres didn’t trust him much going into the playoffs, though they’re obviously confident enough in his health to make the QO. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last week that the Padres expect King to reject the offer and will probably not meet his asking price on the open market. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $80MM deal for Gallen and King alike.

Brandon Woodruff has some parallels to King. He’s a high-end starter whose main question is durability. Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain after missing all of ’24 recovering from shoulder surgery. He was fantastic over 12 starts in between, though, and he’s expected to be healthy going into 2026. Woodruff is entering his age-33 season. There’s less long-term earning power if he accepts a one-year offer and retests free agency at 34. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $66MM deal.

Trent Grisham and Gleyber Torres were the two mid-level hitters who received the offer. Grisham is coming off a 34-homer season and is the top all-around center fielder on the market. He’d hit below the Mendoza line in three straight seasons coming into 2025. Entering the year, the notion of him receiving a qualifying offer would’ve been laughable. Things can change quickly. We predicted he’d decline and command a four-year, $66MM deal.

Torres was the most surprising QO recipient to those of us at MLBTR. He’s also the only one we projected to accept on our Top 50 free agent list. (We would’ve predicted a three-year, $40MM contract had he hit the market without draft compensation attached.) He was a deserved All-Star behind an excellent first half but struggled down the stretch and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery.

Finally, that leaves Shota Imanaga. The left-hander only hit free agency because the Cubs declined to trigger a three-year, $57MM option and he passed on the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. The Cubs weren’t willing to make the three-year commitment but are evidently content to have him back for one season because they followed up by making the QO. Perhaps they assumed he’s a lock to decline after passing on the $30MM guarantee, though the QO represents an approximate $7MM raise over what he would’ve made in 2026 had he not opted out. Imanaga was very good for most of his first two seasons in Chicago, but he became extremely homer-prone down the stretch and into the playoffs. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $45MM contract.

How does the MLBTR readership expect tomorrow to play out? Will anyone lock in for one year with their 2025 club or will they all remain on the market?