Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already taken a look at both Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Framber Valdez. Let's move onto star third baseman Alex Bregman, who opted out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his Red Sox contract earlier in the offseason. Bregman was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having gotten one previously in his career, so he can be signed without any draft forfeitures.
Bregman was a free agent last winter as well, but when the market didn't produce a $200MM+ deal to his liking, he signed for three years and $120MM (with plenty of deferred money) in Boston. That contract allowed him to opt out after each season.
Early in 2025, Bregman played like an MVP candidate. Through May 23, he was hitting .299/.385/.553 with 11 home runs, 17 doubles, an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He suffered a quad strain that sidelined him for nearly two months, throwing a wrench into one of the hottest starts of his career.
There's a narrative that Bregman struggled down the stretch after returning from injury. That's not entirely true. For the first 130 plate appearances post-injury, Bregman picked up right where he left off. He hit .325/.408/.518 with more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (8.5%). His bat tanked for the next three weeks (.151/.223/.215, 103 plate appearances), and Bregman then finished out the season hitting .276/.417/.414 in his final 36 trips to the batter's box. The concept of his post-injury "swoon" is largely a misnomer. Bregman was healthy for the final 11 weeks of the season and really only struggled for three of them -- the extent of those struggles was just alarming. Unsurprisingly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said after the season that Bregman probably came back a bit earlier and wasn't playing at 100%.
On the whole, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with a revitalized walk rate and improved batted-ball metrics. His defense, even with an ailing quadriceps, graded out better than average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him at 3.5 WAR in only 114 games. There’s a pretty easy case that Bregman is a bankable four- to five-WAR player, and while talk of veteran presence/clubhouse leadership/intangibles is often overstated, it seems genuine that front offices are captivated by his leadership skills and personality.
Bregman could have more demand than he did last winter. He's a year older now, but there's no QO attached to him and his plate discipline/approach rebounded after an uncharacteristic 6.9% walk rate and .315 OBP in 2024. Let’s run through Bregman's likeliest landing spots, based on roster composition and payroll outlook, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him aboard.
Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Cubs: Pitching is the Cubs' primary focus this winter, even after Shota Imanaga accepted his qualifying offer and will now return for the 2026 season. However, the Cubs were in on Bregman last offseason and have already been linked to him again. The fit is clear. Top prospect Matt Shaw didn't solidify himself as an everyday option at the hot corner when handed the reins at the position in 2025. Shaw is still only 24 years old and did have an encouraging month following the All-Star break ... before cratering once again in his final 133 plate appearances (.220/.293/.373). Shaw hit .226/.295/.394 overall. He's still a promising young player, but promising young players don't always become solid big leaguers.
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Hope he lands in the midwest somewhere!
Anywhere but the Cubs.
Anywhere but the Yankees.
Anywhere but the Red Sox.
This is still a head scratcher.. I get he wants more years but he won’t get 40 mil a year.. I would of kept going and then tried for a mega deal.. 2 years isn’t much of a risk knowing you’re getting 40 a year.
“Obviously, playing at Fenway is awesome. Playing for a city that not only loves winning, but expects to win. I like playing in those pressure-packed environments, and I feel like I got that here in Boston.” Feb 17, 2025
Steve must be a cub fan.
Bregman is NOT getting $40 million avv or close to that figure so once again Boras gave his client terrible advice. Bregman be lucky to get 4-5 yrs at $25-27 million avv. I would have stayed with the 2/80 and hit FA market as he should easily beat 3/45 on open market. He won’t sniff anywhere near $30 million avv let alone $40!!!