Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already taken a look at both Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Framber Valdez. Let's move onto star third baseman Alex Bregman, who opted out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his Red Sox contract earlier in the offseason. Bregman was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having gotten one previously in his career, so he can be signed without any draft forfeitures.
Bregman was a free agent last winter as well, but when the market didn't produce a $200MM+ deal to his liking, he signed for three years and $120MM (with plenty of deferred money) in Boston. That contract allowed him to opt out after each season.
Early in 2025, Bregman played like an MVP candidate. Through May 23, he was hitting .299/.385/.553 with 11 home runs, 17 doubles, an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He suffered a quad strain that sidelined him for nearly two months, throwing a wrench into one of the hottest starts of his career.
There's a narrative that Bregman struggled down the stretch after returning from injury. That's not entirely true. For the first 130 plate appearances post-injury, Bregman picked up right where he left off. He hit .325/.408/.518 with more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (8.5%). His bat tanked for the next three weeks (.151/.223/.215, 103 plate appearances), and Bregman then finished out the season hitting .276/.417/.414 in his final 36 trips to the batter's box. The concept of his post-injury "swoon" is largely a misnomer. Bregman was healthy for the final 11 weeks of the season and really only struggled for three of them -- the extent of those struggles was just alarming. Unsurprisingly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said after the season that Bregman probably came back a bit earlier and wasn't playing at 100%.
On the whole, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with a revitalized walk rate and improved batted-ball metrics. His defense, even with an ailing quadriceps, graded out better than average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him at 3.5 WAR in only 114 games. There’s a pretty easy case that Bregman is a bankable four- to five-WAR player, and while talk of veteran presence/clubhouse leadership/intangibles is often overstated, it seems genuine that front offices are captivated by his leadership skills and personality.
Bregman could have more demand than he did last winter. He's a year older now, but there's no QO attached to him and his plate discipline/approach rebounded after an uncharacteristic 6.9% walk rate and .315 OBP in 2024. Let’s run through Bregman's likeliest landing spots, based on roster composition and payroll outlook, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him aboard.
Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Cubs: Pitching is the Cubs' primary focus this winter, even after Shota Imanaga accepted his qualifying offer and will now return for the 2026 season. However, the Cubs were in on Bregman last offseason and have already been linked to him again. The fit is clear. Top prospect Matt Shaw didn't solidify himself as an everyday option at the hot corner when handed the reins at the position in 2025. Shaw is still only 24 years old and did have an encouraging month following the All-Star break ... before cratering once again in his final 133 plate appearances (.220/.293/.373). Shaw hit .226/.295/.394 overall. He's still a promising young player, but promising young players don't always become solid big leaguers.
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Hope he lands in the midwest somewhere!
Cubs are one of the favorites.
Anywhere but the Cubs.
Anywhere but the Yankees.
Anywhere but the Red Sox.
Why wouldn’t you want him back on the Red Sox?
From his reading his posts I would say that FPG is a troll that is not a Red Sox fan.
I for one would like him back, but I’ve also accepted that it seems unlikely he will be.
For one, I expect him to have a few more serious suitors than he wound up having last winter. I don’t have FO so I didn’t see the entire post but along with the Red Sox I could see the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs as teams with real interest among the higher spending rung of the sport. Ditto the Tigers, Mariners from the sport’s middle class of spenders. I personally also wonder if the A’s may be bold enough to try and make a splashy signing like Bregman because third base has been a black hole for them going back several years, and to announce they plan to operate like a serious team as they prepare for their move to Vegas. Or if the Astros might be interested in getting the band back together.
Secondly, the Sox have made it clear they are not going to be financially “all in” like many seemed to think. My pie in the sky wish list was to find a way to make Bregman, Alonso, and Schwarber work but there is absolutely no way that’s happening. I really want Schwarber probably more than anything, but he too is going to have a robust enough market I’m sure the cheapo Sox will stay “interested” but not be willing to do what it actually takes. So at this point I’m just hoping for Alonso and a trade for Ketel Marte.
And to tack on a follow-on thought, if Bregman leaves we can probably get by with Mayer at third for a year. Unless you are still a believer in Casas, we have nothing at first. So taking into account the roster construction then Alonso is the deal that we *have* to get done.
Whatever the second big move will be – be it a reunion with Bregman or Schwarber, a trade for someone like Marte, or a gamble on one of the Japanese kids – will be determined by how much of the FO’s self imposed willingness to spend is taken up by whatever it takes to get Alonso signed. I won’t be mad if I end up wrong about this but I’m guessing getting Alonso probably puts Bregman out of our price range.
you used Cubs and higher spending in the same sentence. Oh, youre killing me. LMAO!
They had the 5th highest payroll in baseball each of the last two seasons, what would you prefer to call that?
Mega – Because he would be a massive overpay. I’d rather have Mayer play 3B and the Sox sign Suarez or Alonso.
Skippy – You obviously haven’t read many, if any, of my posts to come at me like that. Don’t waste people’s time with nonsense, especially now in the middle of the winter meetings.
Dirty – If Bo leaves the Jays, I can picture them pursuing Breggy like they did last offseason.
The less we hear about Suarez, the more I like the chances of him joining the Sox. He’d be perfect for what they need, and he could be had for only 3 years after which the younger players start getting expensive.
Dirty – Mayer can easily handle 3B, SS or 2B ….. he’s so valuable as long as he stays healthy.
They are $23M away from exceeding the LT threshold, so yeah, they are just $46M away from exceeding the 2nd threshold which I’m hearing they absolutely will not do …. which means only one big signing, not two or three.
Their refusal to run above that threshold is what makes me think they are targeting a trade for Marte as their second move. AZ wants to get that long term money off their books which means you can basically force them to take Hicks off our hands to reduce and shorten their obligations. And getting to dump Hicks I think gives just enough room they could fit him in with one free agent bat.
He cheated, A LOT
This is still a head scratcher.. I get he wants more years but he won’t get 40 mil a year.. I would of kept going and then tried for a mega deal.. 2 years isn’t much of a risk knowing you’re getting 40 a year.
He already knows the base, as in what Boston will pay as an opening offer. Plus Boras is guided by last years’ other offers. The wild card is how teams perceive his leg injury moving forward. I still see him going back to Boston but I’d rather have Bichette because while a longer deal, the AAV will be lower and allow more moves this season. That said, my first move is Alonso but in my view, he’s returning to the Mets.
I’m with you dewey on Bichette. As long as he’s at 2B. Bregman was great with the younger players and he can still play a great 3B, but I’d rather have Bichette for exactly your reasoning. Mayer can slot in at 3B.
However, I do disagree on Alonso. I think the Sox will get him. I was high on Marte for a day or two, but I’d rather have a true power hitter at 1B. Something they haven’t had for a while. Since Mo Vaughn? I wouldn’t call A Gonzales a power hitter.
swan – Wow both you guys said the same thing as me, that you’d prefer having someone other than Bregman.
I wonder why I’m the only one who got attacked for saying it?
Interesting.
What is a head scratcher for me is anyone that is thinking that Bregman got $40 million a year or is asking for $40 million now.
Bregman should have kept the 2 years $80 mil. He must know he won’t be worth much after 2 years. Some dummy him.
Right on cue there is the next dummy that thinks it was 2/80.
SF
Not totally fair to call these guys dummies
Sports reporting, including this site, does a bad job of explaining the financial side of the game
“who opted out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his Red Sox contract”
The writers need to do better
“Obviously, playing at Fenway is awesome. Playing for a city that not only loves winning, but expects to win. I like playing in those pressure-packed environments, and I feel like I got that here in Boston.” Feb 17, 2025
Steve must be a cub fan.
But I thought the Cardinals would trade Aranado to Cubs as long as they pick up most of salary cost and they then have an old 3B which all fans want on both sides
Bregman is NOT getting $40 million avv or close to that figure so once again Boras gave his client terrible advice. Bregman be lucky to get 4-5 yrs at $25-27 million avv. I would have stayed with the 2/80 and hit FA market as he should easily beat 3/45 on open market. He won’t sniff anywhere near $30 million avv let alone $40!!!
So the offer he got from the Tigers was $167m over 6 yrs. He only needs to get 5 yrs $127 to beat that deal and to come out on top
Bregman was not earning 2/80 in 2026-2027 if he stayed in Boston. He was being paid 2/40 with the rest deferred so long that it was equal to being paid $20 million for those 2 seasons. His actual earnings were 2/60 if he stayed.
He will get $150 million or more without the deferrals this time. If teams ask him to accept deferrals then expect the number to be much higher than $150 million.
150>>>60.
150>>80 as well.
Deferred or not it’s still a contract that paid him 40 mil.. after two years he would of banked 80 which would of been owed to him deferred or not.. then after two seasons he’s free to sign another contract and collect.
Boston can keep him. He was spooning for them last season, he’s obviously looking to stay.
Acoss – It always helps when you’ve got your boss in your back pocket.
The Cora factor is huge, behind only the money factor.
Hopefully the Sox aren’t dumb enough to give him the $160M contract this site has projected for him.
Tigers would be a fit for Bregman.
I want the Giants to sign him…just for the fun drama.
I dunno, would Bregman go to 2nd? Or maybe Chapman? Or maybe Adamas?
We could watch Devers laugh about it at first/DH while it gets sorted out.
Overrated.
Never happen, but ya fun drama.
I agree that Devers is overrated. He takes drama with him wherever he goes so that would make sense that he would cause drama.
Giants have Chapman signed long term so they won’t be signing a 3B.
Devers hasn’t been drama for the Giants. He even agreed to play 1st base for them and even 3rd base in an emergency.
He hit 140 OPS+ last season. He’s a career 129 OPS+ hitter so he did go a bit above his average last season but not by much.
Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers. I would put Boston at the top of that list simply because he and his wife have not moved yet. They sold their house in Houston immediately when he became a FA. They knew they were not returning there.
He’s going to earn his highest income with his worst production. Why pay him for more than 2 years?
MLBTR has Bregman at 6y/160M. I saw CBS Mike Axisa go as high as 6y/150M. I wonder if that would get it done for Bregman. I almost feel like Boras would hand Bregman a pin at MLBTR’s offer. Bregman is another year older and 2025 really wasn’t the platform year he would want it to be. I cant imagine Boras wants to risk his client getting another short term deal with opt-outs.
All the writers and TV pundits have been consistent with predictions on Bregman between $150 million and $180 million. You have to think they know more than most fans.
You would think…. but a lot of the TV pundits and writers are Boras proxys
Skippy – Pretty sure they are basing it on what he was offered last year, plus now he doesn’t have the QO attached to him.
Good point. I forgot about the lack of a QO.
I don’t necessarily disagree. I think we cast aside the analysis of professionals far to easily, but they also need to generate interest which could be a small conflict. I also think free agent signings and trades are frequently to dynamic for hard predictions. Dylan Caese is a good example of that. He landed significantly more than professional analysts expected.
So far this is the only article I can make a comment on. The other articles I want to comment on is glitching out or something. It just says loading where the comment box should be.
Not sure how to contact anyone about this.
It’s for back office scribes?
LOL maybe they are trying to tell you something
Arte
@ Chalk Yep
I think he made a mistake turning his nose up at $80m for two years work… he’s worth $30m tops. Of course Boras usually gets bank for his clients, but this is one time I’d be happy to see him forced to take a cut. He’s an old 32 too…
Leo – He rejected $62M over 2 years (NPV) because he’s projected to get $160M …… why would he be making a mistake?
Id give him 5 /130. Redsox. Thats it
Besides Devers, The Sox haven’t paid or bought a multi-year contract that would take a position player past the age of 34 since 2018. Because of this I’m skeptical on Bregman returning (or a Ketel Marte acquisition) but, A 4yr deal for 1B Pete Alonso would mean he’s playing out the last year at age 34.
Let him age poorly with someone ither than the Tigers.
As a Cleveland fan, I urge Detroit to devote as much of its budget as possible to sign Alex Bregman. He’d be perfect to add to a team that never in its wildest dreams thought both Flaherty and Torres were coming back for $42m. What’s another $35m on Bregman? Oh wait, that’s 3/4 of the payroll of the other teams in the AL Central wrapped up in just three players! I guess you’re the favorites in the division!
Isn’t Cleveland due to auction off Kwan soon? Ramirez to follow 😉
Riiiiight…you might want to check out Jose’s no-trade clause, and as far as Kwan goes, he’s got two more years of his prime in Cleveland, so as usual, Tiger fans have no clue how CLE operates or how the team has managed to win three of the last four division crowns with the smallest cumulative payroll in the Central over that time…
Hint: it’s not through player “auctions” or trading players who are worth more than they’re paid, not paid more than they’re worth (which I gather is Detroit’s approach).
Cleveland does a great job developing players. Kwan and JRod are great examples of that. That is what Detroit is doing now too, creating a minor league pipeline to supplement the major league roster. I think it is a better model but you still have to fill in the missing pieces through trades and free agency. Harris has been cheaping out on that front and the only notable contract offer was to Bregman (who i hope they do NOT try to sign). Cleveland doesn’t fill in the holes either. Imagine if they both did. It costs what it costs. Cheers dude
You can’t spend what you don’t have, and that’s the indictment that is unfair to markets like Cleveland. No matter what they do to compete–and they never cut corners in organizational development–there will always be those who insinuate they should do “more,” despite the fact that they spend as much or more on baseball operations (as a % of revenue) as the big boys do. Fans like you acting like it’s simply a matter of “will” to do more just don’t get it.
Sure. Thats why they gave JRod a boatload of money to stay! Im sure you will get hired as a GM very soon, and me too 😉 Cleveland is a well run organization. I wasn’t trying to insult them.
Fair enough, but you have to know enough aspersions are cast at Cleveland despite the team’s accomplishments that we become over-sensitive to criticism. I look forward to the competition between our organizations, but I’m wary of Detroit’s edge in revenue. Wisely spent, it could proven to be decisive.
You guys and Tampa are the type of organizations the Tigers are trying to be. They do have cash for sure but haven’t spent it well in the recent past (Baez, Zimmerman, Cobb). I thinkvthey are gunshy. Should be a good season. Cheers
Cleveland and Detroit have rarely been viable at the same time…for once we could have a real, sustainable rivalry!