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Tarik Skubal Wins AL Cy Young Award

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For a second straight season, Tarik Skubal is the American League Cy Young award winner. He beat out Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown, the other two finalists. Skubal received 26 of 30 first-place votes. The other four voters had him second behind Crochet, and those pitchers were 1-2 in some order on every ballot.

Skubal is the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Youngs since Jacob deGrom took the NL honors in 2018 and ’19. He’s the 23rd pitcher in MLB history to win the award twice. Skubal cemented himself as one of the two best pitchers on the planet by turning in a 2.21 earned run average across 31 starts. He recorded 241 strikeouts, 13 more than he did during last year’s award-winning season, and won a second straight ERA title.

The Tigers’ star southpaw was fourth in the AL in innings, second in strikeouts behind Crochet, and trailed only Logan Gilbert with a 32.2% strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings). Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference credited him the most Wins Above Replacement of any AL pitcher. He also had the lowest FIP (2.45) and SIERA (2.71). He tied Brown and Bryan Woo for second in the league with 21 quality starts, one behind Crochet.

Skubal is headed into his final season of arbitration control. With no progress on a long-term extension, there’ll surely be teams trying to pry him out of Detroit. It’s very difficult to imagine the Tigers trading their ace on the heels of two consecutive playoff appearances, though. He’ll likely be back as A.J. Hinch’s Opening Day starter and go for a third consecutive AL Cy Young while trying to get Detroit back to October.

It’s the first top three finish for both Crochet and Brown. The Red Sox could not have asked for more out of Crochet in his first season in Boston. He led the AL in strikeouts and innings pitched (205 1/3) while pitching to a 2.59 ERA over 32 starts. This was only Crochet’s second season as a starting pitcher and his first logging a full starter’s workload. The White Sox had eased him back in the second half of the ’24 campaign to not put too much stress on his arm after years working in relief. He demonstrated he’s capable of maintaining his stuff and ace level over a full season with the Red Sox, who signed him through the 2031 season in April.

Brown’s top three placement earned the Astros an extra pick after the first round of the 2026 draft under the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Houston’s ace turned in a 2.43 ERA across 31 starts. He struck out a career-high 206 batters over 185 1/3 innings. This was Brown’s first time receiving any Cy Young votes. He’s entering arbitration and is under club control for another three seasons.

Voters unanimously had Skubal and Crochet as the AL’s best pitchers in some order. Brown was the consensus choice for third, receiving 24 of 30 third-place votes. The other six third-place nods went to Max Fried. Brown and Fried appeared on all but one ballot apiece. Woo finished comfortably in fifth. Carlos Rodón, Aroldis Chapman, Jacob deGrom, Trevor Rogers and Drew Rasmussen were the other pitchers to receive at least one vote.

Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear, Imagn Images. Full vote tally available via BBWAA.

Astros Receive PPI Pick For Hunter Brown’s Top Three Cy Young Finish

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The Baseball Writers Association of America is announcing the finalists for the 2025 awards tonight. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is one of the American League Cy Young finalists, alongside Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox. Since Brown was eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive, the Astros will receive an extra pick after the first round of the 2026 draft.

The 2022-2026 collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA introduced measures to try to reduce service time manipulation. Previously, teams would often hold their top prospects down in the minors until a few weeks into the start of a season, thus gaining an extra year of club control over the player.

Under the new CBA, if a player is on two of the three top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, then his club promotes him early enough in a season to earn a full service year, that player becomes PPI eligible. If the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of Cy Young or MVP voting in his pre-arbitration seasons, he earns the club an extra draft pick. Each player can only earn a club one extra pick total.

Brown got called up to the majors late in 2022 but maintained rookie status going into the following season, featuring prominently on top prospect lists. The Astros haven’t optioned him to the minors since then, so he’s been a mainstay on their roster for the past three full seasons. By being up for the full 2023 season, he became PPI eligible.

He has been PPI-eligible for the past three years but he didn’t receive any awards votes in 2023 or 2024. Here in 2025, he made 31 starts for Houston, logging 185 1/3 innings. He allowed only 2.43 earned runs per nine. His 28.3% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate were all above average.

He will likely finish third in the voting behind Skubal and Crochet but it’s enough for the Astros to get a bonus pick in 2026. That’s a nice bonus for them, as the club’s farm system isn’t especially well regarded at the moment.

Julio Rodríguez, Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson each earned their clubs bonus picks by winning Rookie of the Year. Bobby Witt Jr. didn’t win Rookie of the Year but earned the Royals an extra pick by finishing in the top three of MVP voting in 2024. Drake Baldwin is a finalist for National League Rookie of the Year in 2025 and can net Atlanta an extra pick if he ultimately wins the award.

Photo courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.

Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.

While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.

He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.

Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.

When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.

Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom’s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried’s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.

With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
Tarik Skubal 59.81% (2,941 votes)
Garrett Crochet 29.61% (1,456 votes)
Someone Else 6.00% (295 votes)
Hunter Brown 4.58% (225 votes)
Total Votes: 4,917

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:

Tarik Skubal

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.

For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.

Garrett Crochet

Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.

Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.

Max Fried

Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.

Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.

Hunter Brown

Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.

There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.

Kris Bubic

Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.

Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.

Jacob deGrom

This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.

As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).

Other Options

The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Be The AL Cy Young Winner In 2025?
Tarik Skubal 45.94% (2,917 votes)
Max Fried 25.34% (1,609 votes)
Garrett Crochet 10.69% (679 votes)
Hunter Brown 8.36% (531 votes)
Jacob deGrom 6.88% (437 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 1.45% (92 votes)
Kris Bubic 1.32% (84 votes)
Total Votes: 6,349

The Astros’ Second Ace

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The last time that Hunter Brown was tagged on MLBTR's pages was almost one year ago. Brown had just thrown a five-inning relief appearance after Cristian Javier failed to advance past the second inning. Houston had been running a six-man rotation and was potentially considering dropping Brown to the bullpen or to Triple-A, as he'd allowed 26 runs over 23 innings through the end of April.

A lot can change in a year.

Brown struck out seven while allowing just one run in that May 11 relief outing. His return to the rotation six days later didn't go well, as he gave up four runs in five innings against Milwaukee. After that, Brown reeled off eight consecutive quality starts. He allowed more than three runs in just three of his final 22 appearances. He'd made it through six innings in just one of his first eight starts. He failed to complete six innings only three times from the middle of May onwards.

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Astros Notes: Verlander, Pressly, Brown

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The Astros are out to a slow start this year, currently sitting 15-25, ahead of just the White Sox and Angels in the American League standings. That’s led to early speculation about them possibly trading some pieces at this summer’s deadline.

General manager Dana Brown was recently on MLB Network and said that he “can’t predict any scenario” where the Astros sell at the deadline. But as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that channel is usually on in clubhouses and he may have decided to portray public confidence with the players watching.

There will be many interesting decisions for the club to make this year, though the on-field performance will obviously play a huge factor in how they make those choices. There is still time for them to climb back into contention, with the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently giving them a 39.6% chance to make the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them slightly better than a coin toss at 51.3%.

If the club does end up in selling position, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to tear the roster down to the studs. Cristian Javier is under contract through 2027, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader through 2028 and Jose Altuve through 2029. Players like Luis Garcia, Chas McCormick and Bryan Abreu are arbitration-eligible through 2026, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers through 2027, while Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco are controllable even beyond that.

There are also some guys closer to free agency that the club may have to think about trading if they can’t climb in the standings in the next two months. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent. Justin Verlander is as well, though he has a conditional player option for 2025. Ryan Pressly is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, though his 2025 mutual option becomes guaranteed if he makes 50 appearances this year. That’s a number he’s hit in the past seven full seasons and he’s already at 16 this year, meaning he’ll vest that option as long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy each have one more arbitration season remaining before they are slated for free agency after 2025.

Though the club may have to at least field some calls on that group, there will be some complications with Verlander and Pressly. As mentioned by Rome, both players have opt-outs and would prefer to stay in Houston. That tracks with last week’s report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who also highlighted Verlander’s love of Houston.

Perhaps that means the most likely scenario is both players stay for next year. Verlander will have a player option if he gets to 140 innings this year and could trigger it, or perhaps re-sign even if he doesn’t make it to that line. With Pressly on pace to lock in another year on his deal and not jazzed about being traded, perhaps he just stays as well. Verlander is now 41 years old and Pressly is 35, so they may have to think about whether their love for Houston is strong enough for them to stick around and play out the string on a lost season, as opposed to competing for another ring elsewhere. But they have a few months to think that over.

For now, the club has to ponder its roster construction as they try to win the ball games in front of them. At the start of the month, the club began a stretch of playing 29 games in 30 days and manager Joe Espada said that the club would be considering a six-man rotation.

They haven’t exactly stuck to that plan initially. Javier started Saturday’s game and only recorded four outs, which led to Brown throwing five innings of long relief. Whether Brown will stick in the bullpen for a while or make another start seems undecided right now. The next three contests are slated to be started by Spencer Arrighetti, Blanco and Valdez, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on X, but with Espada telling Kawahara that either Javier or Brown could take the ball on Thursday. The club doesn’t have an off-day until May 23, and then plays another 13 straight after that. Espada says they will have a six-man rotation at some point but it’s not exactly clear how often Brown will be starting or relieving.

Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

AL Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Murphy, Tigers

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The Astros figure to add injured right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back into their rotation mix in 2024, though The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that, with neither player expected to be ready for Opening Day next season, rookie right-handers J.P. France and Hunter Brown could have opportunities to crack the rotation again headed into Spring Training. The club figures to have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy locked into four spots in the rotation, but that would leave an opening for either France or Brown, with the possibility of both if the club decides to utilize a six-man rotation to open the season.

That being said, Rome also suggests other roles for France and Brown are possible next season. In addition to noting that the Astros would benefit from the addition of a veteran start who could provide “stability” to a rotation that suffered from uneven performances in 2023, Rome also puts forth that right-hander Spencer Arrighetti could factor into the club’s rotation mix as soon as the start of next season. Arighetti, the club’s #3 prospect and top pitching prospect per MLB Pipeline, posted a 4.40 ERA in 124 2/3 innings of work split between Double- and Triple-A in 2023, his age-23 campaign.

With so many possible moving pieces, it’s likely that both Brown and France will be used in roles beyond the starting rotation, at least at some point during the 2024 season. France, in particular, is suggested by Rome as a likely candidate for a swing role that would see him move both in and out of the club’s rotation mix as necessary throughout the year. Brown, on the other hand, seems to have a firmer grip on a potential rotation spot, though Rome adds that Brown’s struggles later in the season (including a 6.72 ERA in his final 18 appearances) highlighted the work Brown still has left to do before he can be the mid-rotation arm the Astros hope he can become.

More from the American League…

  • The Red Sox utilized a catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023 to decent effect, with Wong in particular flashing quality glovework behind the plate as the club’s regular starter. Though MassLive’s Chris Cotillo indicates that an addition behind the plate isn’t a priority for Boston after adding top prospect Kyle Teel with their first-round pick in the 2023 draft, he does make note of the fact that Boston was aggressive in their attempts to upgrade behind the plate last offseason. Cotillo goes on to report that the Red Sox “made a serious run” at a trade with the Athletics to acquire All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, making what Cotillo describes as a “competitive” offer to the A’s before they ultimately settled on a three-team deal with the Braves and Brewers to send Murphy to Atlanta. The Red Sox were among the many known suitors for Murphy last offseason, though the A’s set their asking price rather high, with right-hander Brayan Bello’s name floated in the rumor mill as a potential return. That being said, Boston’s level of interest appears to have been greater than was initially reported, given the new information that Boston made a formal offer for Murphy’s services.
  • Although the Tigers have one clear big league catching option in Jake Rogers, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News suggests that finding a suitable backup for Rogers is a primary question for the club as they head into the offseason. While McCosky notes that the club holds a $3.5MM team option over Carson Kelly, he adds that there’s “no indication” as to whether or not the club will ultimately pick up that option. If Kelly is not retained, the club’s top options to back up Rogers internally would be Dillon Dingler and Donny Sands. Dingler enjoyed something of a breakout season at age 24 this year slashing .256/.361/.478 across three levels of the minors, though his .202/.266/.384 showing in 26 games at the Triple-A level left something to be desired. Sands, meanwhile, struggled to a .230/.318/.360 slash line alongside defensive struggles in limited action last season but has a solid offensive track record at Triple-A from his time with the Yankees and Phillies. Per McCosky, the decision on Kelly’s option could come down to the readiness of Dingler for a major league role in 2024.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.

Three More

Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.

Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.

Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.

AL West Notes: Brown, Whitley, Astros, Pache

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It was reported yesterday that the Astros would start the season without Lance McCullers Jr. in the rotation, since he’s out with an injury to his throwing arm. The club will still have a strong front four in Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy, and it was assumed by most observers that Hunter Brown would now step into the fifth slot.

“It’s consensus in the organization that Hunter Brown has a chance to be big-time for us,” general manager Dana Brown told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. “I think he knows it and feels it. When I saw him throw, I was like, ‘This guy has electric stuff.’ The ball is coming out really good. There’s a comfort with Brown that, hey, Brown could take a step and really log some innings this year.”

The general manager didn’t go so far as to crown the young pitcher as winning the job, but it seems like he’s the frontrunner at the moment. That’s fairly logical given the strong season he had last year. He tossed 106 innings in Triple-A, both starting and in multi-inning relief stints, with a 2.55 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 54.2% ground ball rate. He was also able to make his major league debut, posting a 0.89 ERA in 20 1/3 innings over seven appearances.

Other options on the 40-man include Brandon Bielak, J.P. France and Forrest Whitley. “We’re hoping Whitley takes a jump this year,” Dana Brown said. “It’s time for Whitley.” Whitley, 25, was once one of the most highly-regarded young players in the game, with Baseball America ranking him the #5 prospect in the league in 2019. Unfortunately, he still hasn’t made his major league debut due to various factors, the most prominent being injuries such as 2021 Tommy John surgery. He was able to return to health last year and toss 40 innings in the minors but with a 6.52 ERA in that time. He’ll look to get back on track this season to the form he showed in 2018 when he posted a 3.76 ERA in Double-A at the age of 20. He still has an option remaining and can be kept in the minors until he proves himself ready.

Of course, the Astros could always add a player from outside the organization, but it doesn’t seem like anything is imminent. “I’m not in the panic mode, but I also will keep my eyes open because I’m always looking for depth,” Dana Brown said.

Other notes from the American League West…

  • Sticking with the Astros and their rotation depth, Rome asked manager Dusty Baker about the situation today. “You got to ask the powers that be,” Baker said. “I got the power, but not the authority. That was always a consideration for me … we didn’t have a general manager in place in order to make that move.” That last comment is a reference to the fact that the club surprisingly parted ways with now-former general manager James Click in November and operated with that job vacant until Brown was hired in late January. It’s not true that the empty position prevented the club from making any moves whatsoever, as owner Jim Crane took an active role in baseball operations alongside some assistant general managers. Between Click’s dismissal and Brown’s hiring, the club signed José Abreu, re-signed Rafael Montero and Michael Brantley, in addition to various minor league deals and waiver claims. Still, it’s possible that the front office was a bit short-handed while transitioning to a period without Click and assistant GM Scott Powers. It’s not too late to add pitching depth, as the club could still make a trade or reach out to free agents like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy or Aníbal Sánchez.
  • The Athletics will have a tough choice to make at the end of spring since outfielder Cristian Pache is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. The prospect hype on him was strong enough that he got to #7 on BA’s top 100 in 2021, though his bat hasn’t developed to match his strong defense. Traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson deal about a year ago, he hit a paltry .166/.218/.241 last season. His 35 wRC+ indicates he was 65% below league average, the lowest such mark in the majors last year among those with at least 250 plate appearances. “For Pache, he’s in a difficult situation,” manager Mark Kotsay tells Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. “Not only is he competing for a roster spot here, but he’s going to showcase himself for 29 other teams. So it’s an important spring for Pache, no question, from an individual standpoint, for his career going forward.” The club has collected many outfielders in its recent deals and currently has a mix that includes Seth Brown, Ramón Laureano, Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Conner Capel, Brent Rooker, Cal Stevenson and others. Many of those players can be optioned to the minors but Kawahara suggests that Pache’s lack of options might not be enough to get him a roster spot.
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