Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier Projected To Return In 5-7 Weeks
In an interview on SportsTalk790 radio today, Astros general manager Dana Brown said right-handers Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier are tentatively expected to return to Houston’s rotation by late May or early June. (Hat tip to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart for the link.) The timeline for both pitchers is still fluid, so the GM thinks their returns could “hopefully…be a little sooner.”
The Astros are probably due some good health news, given how the team has been hit hard by injuries in the season’s first month. Houston’s injury list consists of 14 players, and Brown and Javier are two of 10 pitchers on either the 15-day or 60-day IL. The depleted and makeshift rotation is down to Mike Burrows, Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti, and Peter Lambert, whose minor league contract was just selected on Thursday (Lambert then allowed four runs over five innings in Friday’s 9-4 loss to the Cardinals.)
Brown and Javier were each sidelined by Grade 2 shoulder strains. Brown posted an 0.84 ERA over his first two starts before being placed on the 15-day IL on April 2, while Javier joined him a week later after struggling to a 12.54 ERA over his first three starts and 9 1/3 innings. No tentative recovery timelines were given at the time of the IL placements, and neither pitcher has resumed throwing, which is why Dana Brown’s projection was fairly broad.
Assuming no setbacks, Brown and Javier each face the standard build-up process of playing catch, bullpen sessions, live batting practice sessions, and surely at least a couple of minor league rehab games given the length of their IL stints. Even if the best-case scenario is late May, however, that still means the Astros will be scrambling for rotation innings for upwards of another month.
All of the injuries have unsurprisingly led to a rough start to Houston’s season, as the team is now 8-15 after today’s extra-innings 7-5 loss to St. Louis. The Astros are 10 games into a stretch of 13 games in 13 days, and some relief may come for the pitching staff in terms of off-days on April 23 and 27.
Astros Notes: Brown, Hader, Bullpen
The Astros provided an update on injured ace Hunter Brown on Tuesday, noting that the righty has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 shoulder strain. The club said he’ll be shut down from throwing for a few weeks.
Manager Joe Espada provided a little more specificity in his pregame media session with the Houston beat (link via Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). The skipper said Brown would be reevaluated in two weeks. Espada and GM Dana Brown stressed that there’s nothing structurally amiss and that the issue is muscular.
That’s a relief, but it’s still trending towards more than a monthlong absence. Even if Brown is able to resume throwing two weeks from now, he’ll need to recover from a few bullpen and live batting practice sessions. A multi-week shutdown is going to require one or two minor league rehab starts as well.
The Astros are sticking with their plan to move to a six-man rotation after tomorrow’s off day. They’ll play on 13 straight days beginning this weekend. The six-man staff will keep Tatsuya Imai on a weekly schedule and allow them to keep an eye on workloads for their back-end arms.
Imai joins Mike Burrows, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. in the top four of Espada’s rotation. Cody Bolton made a spot start on Monday against the Rockies, stepping into Brown’s schedule when the latter was placed on the injured list over the weekend. Bolton could get continued run out of the rotation. Spencer Arrighetti is working out of the Triple-A rotation. Ryan Weiss, AJ Blubaugh, and Kai-Wei Teng are all pitching in relief but have starting backgrounds.
Espada provided a few more encouraging updates on rehabbing pitchers this evening (relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic). The most notable is that closer Josh Hader, out all season with biceps tendinitis, is expected to face hitters for the first time next week. Depth starter Nate Pearson will throw a two-inning simulated game this weekend.
Houston’s bullpen has been shaky in Hader’s absence. Fill-in closer Bryan Abreu has allowed at least one run in each of his first four appearances. Abreu has only successfully locked down one of his three save opportunities this year. That came with a three-run lead and still required him to rebound from a Roman Anthony home run. Abreu took the loss in his most recent outing, giving up a walk-off three-run homer to Brent Rooker in the tenth inning on Sunday.
Bryan King and Steven Okert give the Astros a pair of quality left-handers. Abreu has a track record as a high-end setup man. Even if he gets on track, he’s a better fit earlier in games as a leverage arm given the Astros’ lack of established righty relievers. Blubaugh has been pushed up the bullpen hierarchy early in his big league career as a result.
Astros Place Hunter Brown On Injured List With Shoulder Strain
1:40pm: Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relays that, according to manager Joe Espada, Brown felt off during his throwing program on Friday and underwent imaging before returning to Houston to be evaluated by team doctors. It’s possible the Astros will have a clearer picture of Brown’s timeline for return once he’s been more thoroughly examined by the team’s medical staff.
12:44pm: The Astros are placing right-hander Hunter Brown on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain. Right-hander Christian Roa was recalled to the majors to replace Brown on the roster.
Brown, 27, broke out last year to become one of the top pitchers in the entire sport. In 31 starts last year, Brown pitched to a 2.43 ERA and struck out opponents at a 28.3% clip. He earned his first career All-Star nod and finished third behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet in the AL Cy Young award race. Through two starts this year, he was arguably even better with a 0.84 ERA in 10 2/3 innings with a 39.5% strikeout rate. After losing Framber Valdez to free agency over the offseason, the Astros entered the year counting on Brown to lead their rotation as they look to make their way back into the postseason picture.
All of that is now on hold for the time being. While it’s unclear just how much time Brown should be expected to miss, even a minimum stint on the shelf constitutes a big blow to the Astros. A longer one could be devastating. Mike Burrows, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. make up the rest of Houston’s Opening Day rotation. Burrows has significant upside but has struggled so far this year. McCullers looked quite good in his first start of the year last week but pitched to a 6.15 ERA last season and last threw even 60 innings at the big league level back in 2021. Javier offered reasons for optimism after returning from Tommy John surgery last year but has been shelled for six earned runs in each of his first two starts this season. Losing Brown from the top of a rotation that already has so many question marks is going to be hard to stomach.
In the long-term, the Astros figure to turn to a depth option like Spencer Arrighetti, Colton Gordon, or perhaps even prospect Miguel Ullola to fill the void. The good news for Houston is that they’ve shown a remarkable ability to weather the storm of rotation injuries in recent years, getting passable or better production from little-known youngsters and depth pieces. Arrighetti has a bit more name recognition than that after a solid start to his career, and after two scoreless starts at Triple-A to open the season he seems likely to be the Astros’ first choice to replace Brown. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes that the Astros were expected to a move to a six-man rotation this week prior to the news regarding Brown thanks to an upcoming stretch in the schedule where they play 13 consecutive games without a day off. If that’s still the plan, the Astros will need to turn to multiple Triple-A arms to fill out a rotation that now has just four active members.
For now, however, the team is turning to Roa to fill Brown’s roster spot. Brown’s spot in the rotation won’t come up until tomorrow, and so the Astros can afford to give their bullpen some extra depth for the time being as they figure out what direction they want to go in with Brown sidelined. Roa surrendered a run in 1 1/3 innings of work during his first stint with the club earlier this year and has a career 2.08 ERA in four appearances after briefly making his big league debut as a member of the Marlins last year. The righty sports a career 4.52 ERA in 171 2/3 innings of work as a swing man at the Triple-A level, and while he won’t be an impact arm for the Astros he should be capable of eating innings in long or middle relief for the club over the next few days as they figure out their longer-term pitching plan.
Astros Notes: Hader, Peña, Extensions
Astros closer Josh Hader opened the season on the 15-day injured list after experiencing biceps tendinitis during spring training. Fans hoping for a minimum stint will have to wait a bit longer than that. General manager Dana Brown told the team’s beat today that the target is for Hader to begin facing hitters at some point in mid-April (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). He’d presumably then need to make at least a couple appearances on a minor league rehab stint before rejoining the club. A return in late April seems like a best-case scenario, speculatively speaking.
Hader missed the final seven weeks or so of the 2025 campaign after suffering a capsule strain in his left shoulder. There’s no indication the shoulder is still bothering him at this stage. He’s one of four Houston relievers to open the season on the shelf, joining fellow lefty Bennett Sousa and righties Enyel De Los Santos and Nate Pearson. Sousa is dealing with an oblique strain. De Los Santos was slowed by a knee strain during camp. Pearson had offseason elbow surgery.
With Hader sidelined to begin the season, closing duties will fall to Bryan Abreu, who’s been one of the best (if not the best) setup men in baseball in recent seasons. Bryan King and Steven Okert had strong 2025 seasons and will serve as key setup men. It’s a patchwork group behind them. Rule 5 pick Roddery Munoz made the Opening Day roster. Ryan Weiss, who signed a big league deal after a breakout in South Korea, will make his MLB debut the first time he gets into a game. Christian Roa was a minor league signee. Kai-Wei Teng was acquired in a trade after being squeezed off the Giants’ roster. He has a 7.30 ERA in 40 2/3 MLB innings. AJ Blubaugh was tagged for a 5.27 ERA in 19 Triple-A starts last year.
The ‘Stros did get at least some good injury news recently Star shortstop Jeremy Peña managed to avoid an IL stint to begin the season despite suffering a small fracture in his finger during WBC exhibition play. He’s not in the Opening Day lineup, however. A team spokesperson tells Chandler Rome of The Athletic that Peña is getting some live at-bats over at the Astros’ Triple-A complex in Sugar Land this morning. The implication seems to be that while Peña won’t be out for a full 10 days, he needs a few more reps and/or a bit more healing before the team is comfortable plugging him into the big league lineup.
With Peña out, the oft-discussed Astros infield “logjam” has sorted itself out for at least Opening Day. Carlos Correa gets the nod at shortstop, while Isaac Paredes slots in at the hot corner. Jose Altuve and Christian Walker are on the right side of the infield, and Yordan Alvarez is at designated hitter. The team hasn’t indicated when Peña might return to the lineup, but with Houston facing lefties in three of their next four starts (Yusei Kikuchi tomorrow, Reid Detmers on Saturday, Ranger Suárez on Monday), they’ll hope to have their shortstop back in the fold; Peña is a career .302/.343/.469 hitter (128 wRC+) against left-handed pitching.
Both Peña and the aforementioned Abreu are nearing free agency. Abreu is in his final year of club control and will reach the open market at season’s end. Peña is controlled through 2027, as is Paredes. Ace Hunter Brown is controlled through 2028. Asked about the possibility of an extension for anyone on the roster, Brown said this morning that the club has had only internal discussions about potential long-term deals (via Chron.com’s Michael Shapiro).
“We haven’t really discussed at length with any of our players,” he said when asked to clarify whether any of those internal talks have extended into talks with various players’ representatives.
Brown has often voiced a desire to sign various core players to long-term arrangements, but since he was hired as general manager, right-hander Cristian Javier is the lone player to do so. There have surely been other efforts to come to terms with some of Javier’s teammates, but owner Jim Crane tends to shy away from long-term contracts in general. The six-year deals given to Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are the longest in Crane’s 15 years owning the team. Alex Bregman, whose original Astros extension was $100MM over five years, is the only other Houston player to sign a nine-figure deal in that time. Hader’s $95MM deal is quite close, obviously, and the Astros have made nine-figure offers to keep both Bregman and Correa in free agency. Both found larger deals elsewhere.
Of course, not all of the listed players would necessarily command $100MM+. Abreu, good as he is, would fall shy of that. The Astros have talked more about trading Paredes than extending him. But to have any hope of signing Peña or Brown to a long-term deal — be it via extension or simply re-signing them in free agency — Houston would need to stretch well beyond Crane’s prior comfort levels.
Astros Notes: Valdez, CBT, Infield, Brown
The Astros came into the offseason clearly needing rotation upgrades, due to a variety of injuries and the departure of Framber Valdez to free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it always seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That’s seems even more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss to their starting pitching group. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez in an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez is still available but also spoke about him as though he’s already gone.
“Well, look, Framber’s still out there,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know that we had to get some starting pitching. So, we’ve been able to acquire three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. Us getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, that was also big. So, we added those three guys. When you’re losing Framber — he’s still on the market, he’s out there — but if you don’t get him, of course, you’re losing those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors as well.”
It’s not especially surprising that things are playing out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents of this winter’s class. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a $150MM guarantee over five years, $30MM in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend huge money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85MM extension for Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.
Beyond their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly came into this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had enough wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a decent number but well below the projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year deal. Houston had to give up a couple of notable prospects to get Burrows but he’s still making the league minimum.
RosterResource currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of about $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s base CBT threshold of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the line without going over, though they ended up surging over the line in each of the past two years.
Going into 2024, they were a bit under the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Suddenly feeling the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season but then jumped at the chance to pick up Carlos Correa, going into CBT territory in the process.
Once again, they have positioned themselves just under the tax, though final status isn’t calculated until the end of the season. That means that they could decide to pay the tax once again for the right opportunity.
“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams but you’ve seen over the years we’ll spend the money when we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive when we have to be.”
Taking the comments of Brown and Crane together, it seems possible that the Astros may have already made their most significant moves of the winter. A few depth transactions would still be likely but the roster might be mostly set. It’s theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would open up a bit of a playing time logjam and also potentially some payroll space, but Brown also downplayed that.
“I think there’s a chance where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You have guys that may play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you when you want to give guys rest. So, we’re looking at this in many ways. But, you know, we still are listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players. We’ll still listen.”
The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes potentially splitting time at the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025 but didn’t grade out well there. Yordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo.
Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded infield picture and the tight budget, there’s an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the whole group and portioning out playing time with some off-days to keep everyone fresh.
Perhaps a trade will come together, given Brown’s admission that they will listen when other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to again shoot over the CBT line. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter Brown, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier with guys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, McCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix for starts.
Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will broach the subject at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to heat up again. Look, he’s got Boras, so it won’t be easy. But at the end of the day, we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”
It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension prior to the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he lated hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras clients do sometimes sign extensions but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.
What also complicates matters is that Brown has taken his performance up quite a bit since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the bigs. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.
Hunter is now three years from free agency, meaning his earning power could be pushing towards the upper levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension going into 2023, when he was between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could be reasonably in that range and would only get higher as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would surely be wise to get something doon sooner rather than later.
A big extension for Brown has the potential for increasing the club’s CBT number. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value. Perhaps the Astros would like to first sign Hunter to a one-year deal for 2026, where he’s projected for a $5.7MM salary. They could then have the extension start in 2027 so that it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some future CBT room.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
Tarik Skubal Wins AL Cy Young Award
For a second straight season, Tarik Skubal is the American League Cy Young award winner. He beat out Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown, the other two finalists. Skubal received 26 of 30 first-place votes. The other four voters had him second behind Crochet, and those pitchers were 1-2 in some order on every ballot.
Skubal is the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Youngs since Jacob deGrom took the NL honors in 2018 and ’19. He’s the 23rd pitcher in MLB history to win the award twice. Skubal cemented himself as one of the two best pitchers on the planet by turning in a 2.21 earned run average across 31 starts. He recorded 241 strikeouts, 13 more than he did during last year’s award-winning season, and won a second straight ERA title.
The Tigers’ star southpaw was fourth in the AL in innings, second in strikeouts behind Crochet, and trailed only Logan Gilbert with a 32.2% strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings). Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference credited him the most Wins Above Replacement of any AL pitcher. He also had the lowest FIP (2.45) and SIERA (2.71). He tied Brown and Bryan Woo for second in the league with 21 quality starts, one behind Crochet.
Skubal is headed into his final season of arbitration control. With no progress on a long-term extension, there’ll surely be teams trying to pry him out of Detroit. It’s very difficult to imagine the Tigers trading their ace on the heels of two consecutive playoff appearances, though. He’ll likely be back as A.J. Hinch’s Opening Day starter and go for a third consecutive AL Cy Young while trying to get Detroit back to October.
It’s the first top three finish for both Crochet and Brown. The Red Sox could not have asked for more out of Crochet in his first season in Boston. He led the AL in strikeouts and innings pitched (205 1/3) while pitching to a 2.59 ERA over 32 starts. This was only Crochet’s second season as a starting pitcher and his first logging a full starter’s workload. The White Sox had eased him back in the second half of the ’24 campaign to not put too much stress on his arm after years working in relief. He demonstrated he’s capable of maintaining his stuff and ace level over a full season with the Red Sox, who signed him through the 2031 season in April.
Brown’s top three placement earned the Astros an extra pick after the first round of the 2026 draft under the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Houston’s ace turned in a 2.43 ERA across 31 starts. He struck out a career-high 206 batters over 185 1/3 innings. This was Brown’s first time receiving any Cy Young votes. He’s entering arbitration and is under club control for another three seasons.
Voters unanimously had Skubal and Crochet as the AL’s best pitchers in some order. Brown was the consensus choice for third, receiving 24 of 30 third-place votes. The other six third-place nods went to Max Fried. Brown and Fried appeared on all but one ballot apiece. Woo finished comfortably in fifth. Carlos Rodón, Aroldis Chapman, Jacob deGrom, Trevor Rogers and Drew Rasmussen were the other pitchers to receive at least one vote.
Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear, Imagn Images. Full vote tally available via BBWAA.
Astros Receive PPI Pick For Hunter Brown’s Top Three Cy Young Finish
The Baseball Writers Association of America is announcing the finalists for the 2025 awards tonight. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is one of the American League Cy Young finalists, alongside Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox. Since Brown was eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive, the Astros will receive an extra pick after the first round of the 2026 draft.
The 2022-2026 collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA introduced measures to try to reduce service time manipulation. Previously, teams would often hold their top prospects down in the minors until a few weeks into the start of a season, thus gaining an extra year of club control over the player.
Under the new CBA, if a player is on two of the three top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, then his club promotes him early enough in a season to earn a full service year, that player becomes PPI eligible. If the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of Cy Young or MVP voting in his pre-arbitration seasons, he earns the club an extra draft pick. Each player can only earn a club one extra pick total.
Brown got called up to the majors late in 2022 but maintained rookie status going into the following season, featuring prominently on top prospect lists. The Astros haven’t optioned him to the minors since then, so he’s been a mainstay on their roster for the past three full seasons. By being up for the full 2023 season, he became PPI eligible.
He has been PPI-eligible for the past three years but he didn’t receive any awards votes in 2023 or 2024. Here in 2025, he made 31 starts for Houston, logging 185 1/3 innings. He allowed only 2.43 earned runs per nine. His 28.3% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate were all above average.
He will likely finish third in the voting behind Skubal and Crochet but it’s enough for the Astros to get a bonus pick in 2026. That’s a nice bonus for them, as the club’s farm system isn’t especially well regarded at the moment.
Julio Rodríguez, Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson each earned their clubs bonus picks by winning Rookie of the Year. Bobby Witt Jr. didn’t win Rookie of the Year but earned the Royals an extra pick by finishing in the top three of MVP voting in 2024. Drake Baldwin is a finalist for National League Rookie of the Year in 2025 and can net Atlanta an extra pick if he ultimately wins the award.
Photo courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images
Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In
While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.
Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.
While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.
He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.
Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.
When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.
Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom‘s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried‘s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.
With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
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Tarik Skubal 60% (2,941)
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Garrett Crochet 30% (1,456)
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Someone Else 6% (295)
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Hunter Brown 5% (225)
Total votes: 4,917
Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In
While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:
The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.
For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.
Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.
Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.
Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.
Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.
Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.
There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.
Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.
Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.
This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.
As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).
Other Options
The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.
Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:
Who Will Be The AL Cy Young Winner In 2025?
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Tarik Skubal 46% (2,917)
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Max Fried 25% (1,609)
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Garrett Crochet 11% (679)
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Hunter Brown 8% (531)
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Jacob deGrom 7% (437)
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Other (Specify In Comments) 1% (92)
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Kris Bubic 1% (84)
Total votes: 6,349
The Astros’ Second Ace
The last time that Hunter Brown was tagged on MLBTR's pages was almost one year ago. Brown had just thrown a five-inning relief appearance after Cristian Javier failed to advance past the second inning. Houston had been running a six-man rotation and was potentially considering dropping Brown to the bullpen or to Triple-A, as he'd allowed 26 runs over 23 innings through the end of April.
A lot can change in a year.
Brown struck out seven while allowing just one run in that May 11 relief outing. His return to the rotation six days later didn't go well, as he gave up four runs in five innings against Milwaukee. After that, Brown reeled off eight consecutive quality starts. He allowed more than three runs in just three of his final 22 appearances. He'd made it through six innings in just one of his first eight starts. He failed to complete six innings only three times from the middle of May onwards.
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