Poll: Will Luis Arraez Land A Multi-Year Deal?

There may be no player in baseball today who, from a statistical perspective, is more controversial than Luis Arraez. The winner of three consecutive batting titles from 2022-24, Arraez is a three-time All-Star with a career .317 batting average and a lifetime 6.1% strikeout rate that makes him a throwback to an era of baseball decades in the past.

That’s earned him a large number of fans around the game, but more modern analytics are skeptical of his case to be considered among the game’s stars. He’s a limited defender who is best served playing first base or DH despite still being just 28 years old, and even at his peak defensive ability he was a passable second baseman at best. While his 6.5% walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate, it’s still below average, which keeps his OBP from reaching elite levels. Perhaps most importantly, Arraez has less power than almost any other player in the game. Just 12 qualified players have a lower career ISO than Arraez since he made his big league debut back in 2019, and among that group Nicky Lopez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Myles Straw are the only ones who have been everyday players for a significant stretch of time. He’s tied with Kiner-Falefa for the fewest home runs of any player with at least 3000 plate appearances over the past ten years.

That combination of minimal defensive value and bottom-of-the-scale power makes Arraez an unattractive bet for many teams. First base and DH are two of the spots in the lineup teams rely most heavily on to generate home run power, and slotting Arraez into one of those spots means the team will have to be able to compensate in other areas in order to field a well-balanced lineup. That’s certainly far from impossible; the Padres, for whom Arraez played in each of the past two seasons, have a 107 wRC+ over the past two seasons that’s tied with the Blue Jays for seventh-best in baseball. Even they, however, rank just 21st in the majors when it comes to home runs and 23rd in ISO during Arraez’s time with the club.

How much will teams value an all-hit, no-power first baseman on the open market in the age of analytics? Arraez’s free agency is about to show us, but the early signs aren’t impressive. The rumor mill has been exceedingly quiet regarding Arraez. San Diego was reported to have interest in a reunion back in November, but that was at a time when right-hander Michael King was expected to sign elsewhere. It’s unclear if they’ll have the money in the budget to add Arraez back into the fold after that expenditure. Similarly, the Rangers were connected to Arraez early in the offseason. Even at the time, however, there were questions about the team’s ability to fit Arraez in the budget. A report last week that the club was unlikely to pursue additional offense this winter further casts doubt on their standing as a realistic option for Arraez.

Looking for speculative fits presents a challenge. Many teams like the Dodgers, Tigers, Royals, and Astros have cluttered first base and DH mixes that make squeezing Arraez onto the roster essentially impossible. For other teams, they have some combination of established talent and interesting young players who would be hard to justify bumping out of a regular role in favor of Arraez. Would the Cubs spend to bring him in at DH even as Moises Ballesteros offers a contact-heavy, lefty bat on the league minimum? Could the Giants justify keeping Bryce Eldridge in the minors to make room for Arraez alongside Rafael Devers? The Yankees left Ben Rice without a clear place to play in deference to Paul Goldschmidt last year, but it’s impossible to imagine them doing the same for Arraez after Rice broke out in 2025.

Perhaps the best fits for Arraez are the teams he’s already played for. San Diego’s interest was already mentioned earlier, but the Marlins currently plan to use Christopher Morel at first base with Agustin Ramirez at DH, while the Twins have Josh Bell at the position and no locked in DH. Arraez could easily squeeze into either of those mixes, but it would be at least a mild surprise to see either club make a big offer to their former player. Perhaps a rebuilding team like the Nationals or Cardinals could sign Arraez, but if most contenders would have trouble fitting him on the roster, that may not speak well to his trade market over the summer.

Those tough headwinds on the market might not be quite as significant if Arraez had a better platform year, but 2025 was arguably his weakest season ever. While he played in 154 games and managed a career-high 11 stolen bases, his .289 BABIP was a career low by far and that led to a career-worst .292 batting average. With that drop in average came a drop in production across the board, as his .292/.327/.392 slash line was good for a wRC+ of just 104. That’s not exactly impactful production from a first baseman or DH, and if Arraez offered production more like the 123 wRC+ he had posted in his three years winning the batting title, perhaps teams would be more motivated to find room for him on their roster.

Perhaps, then, Arraez would be best served signing a one-year deal and retesting the market next season. That would fall below the two-year $24MM contract prediction MLBTR set out for Arraez at the outset of the offseason, and he’s previously indicated a desire for longer-term security after being traded twice in his career already. Even so, it might still represent the best (or only) option for Arraez given his down season and a tough market for first base/DH types. That’s especially true given that Arraez is young enough to procure a longer-term offer next offseason in the event he turns in a big 2026 campaign. With that said, there might be a team willing to bet on a bounce-back from Arraez and offer him a modest multi-year deal like the one MLBTR predicted for him back in November. Another possibility could be the Padres, known for their willingness to get creative and stretch dollars across multiple years, coming to Arraez with a creative multi-year offer like the one they gave Nick Pivetta last winter.

How do MLBTR readers think Arraez’s market will shake out? Will he be able to procure the multi-year deal many expected he’d be able to find at the outset of the winter, or will a tough market force him to take a one year deal? Have your say in the poll below: