There may be no player in baseball today who, from a statistical perspective, is more controversial than Luis Arraez. The winner of three consecutive batting titles from 2022-24, Arraez is a three-time All-Star with a career .317 batting average and a lifetime 6.1% strikeout rate that makes him a throwback to an era of baseball decades in the past.
That’s earned him a large number of fans around the game, but more modern analytics are skeptical of his case to be considered among the game’s stars. He’s a limited defender who is best served playing first base or DH despite still being just 28 years old, and even at his peak defensive ability he was a passable second baseman at best. While his 6.5% walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate, it’s still below average, which keeps his OBP from reaching elite levels. Perhaps most importantly, Arraez has less power than almost any other player in the game. Just 12 qualified players have a lower career ISO than Arraez since he made his big league debut back in 2019, and among that group Nicky Lopez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Myles Straw are the only ones who have been everyday players for a significant stretch of time. He’s tied with Kiner-Falefa for the fewest home runs of any player with at least 3000 plate appearances over the past ten years.
That combination of minimal defensive value and bottom-of-the-scale power makes Arraez an unattractive bet for many teams. First base and DH are two of the spots in the lineup teams rely most heavily on to generate home run power, and slotting Arraez into one of those spots means the team will have to be able to compensate in other areas in order to field a well-balanced lineup. That’s certainly far from impossible; the Padres, for whom Arraez played in each of the past two seasons, have a 107 wRC+ over the past two seasons that’s tied with the Blue Jays for seventh-best in baseball. Even they, however, rank just 21st in the majors when it comes to home runs and 23rd in ISO during Arraez’s time with the club.
How much will teams value an all-hit, no-power first baseman on the open market in the age of analytics? Arraez’s free agency is about to show us, but the early signs aren’t impressive. The rumor mill has been exceedingly quiet regarding Arraez. San Diego was reported to have interest in a reunion back in November, but that was at a time when right-hander Michael King was expected to sign elsewhere. It’s unclear if they’ll have the money in the budget to add Arraez back into the fold after that expenditure. Similarly, the Rangers were connected to Arraez early in the offseason. Even at the time, however, there were questions about the team’s ability to fit Arraez in the budget. A report last week that the club was unlikely to pursue additional offense this winter further casts doubt on their standing as a realistic option for Arraez.
Looking for speculative fits presents a challenge. Many teams like the Dodgers, Tigers, Royals, and Astros have cluttered first base and DH mixes that make squeezing Arraez onto the roster essentially impossible. For other teams, they have some combination of established talent and interesting young players who would be hard to justify bumping out of a regular role in favor of Arraez. Would the Cubs spend to bring him in at DH even as Moises Ballesteros offers a contact-heavy, lefty bat on the league minimum? Could the Giants justify keeping Bryce Eldridge in the minors to make room for Arraez alongside Rafael Devers? The Yankees left Ben Rice without a clear place to play in deference to Paul Goldschmidt last year, but it’s impossible to imagine them doing the same for Arraez after Rice broke out in 2025.
Perhaps the best fits for Arraez are the teams he’s already played for. San Diego’s interest was already mentioned earlier, but the Marlins currently plan to use Christopher Morel at first base with Agustin Ramirez at DH, while the Twins have Josh Bell at the position and no locked in DH. Arraez could easily squeeze into either of those mixes, but it would be at least a mild surprise to see either club make a big offer to their former player. Perhaps a rebuilding team like the Nationals or Cardinals could sign Arraez, but if most contenders would have trouble fitting him on the roster, that may not speak well to his trade market over the summer.
Those tough headwinds on the market might not be quite as significant if Arraez had a better platform year, but 2025 was arguably his weakest season ever. While he played in 154 games and managed a career-high 11 stolen bases, his .289 BABIP was a career low by far and that led to a career-worst .292 batting average. With that drop in average came a drop in production across the board, as his .292/.327/.392 slash line was good for a wRC+ of just 104. That’s not exactly impactful production from a first baseman or DH, and if Arraez offered production more like the 123 wRC+ he had posted in his three years winning the batting title, perhaps teams would be more motivated to find room for him on their roster.
Perhaps, then, Arraez would be best served signing a one-year deal and retesting the market next season. That would fall below the two-year $24MM contract prediction MLBTR set out for Arraez at the outset of the offseason, and he’s previously indicated a desire for longer-term security after being traded twice in his career already. Even so, it might still represent the best (or only) option for Arraez given his down season and a tough market for first base/DH types. That’s especially true given that Arraez is young enough to procure a longer-term offer next offseason in the event he turns in a big 2026 campaign. With that said, there might be a team willing to bet on a bounce-back from Arraez and offer him a modest multi-year deal like the one MLBTR predicted for him back in November. Another possibility could be the Padres, known for their willingness to get creative and stretch dollars across multiple years, coming to Arraez with a creative multi-year offer like the one they gave Nick Pivetta last winter.
How do MLBTR readers think Arraez’s market will shake out? Will he be able to procure the multi-year deal many expected he’d be able to find at the outset of the winter, or will a tough market force him to take a one year deal? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Arraez Sign A Multi-Year Deal This Winter?
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No, he'll settle for a one-year deal and return to free agency next year. 75% (8,117)
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Yes, he'll find a multi-year contract this offseason. 25% (2,681)
Total votes: 10,798
No. He just doesnt provide that much value. No pop, shaky defense, one dimensional player.
Cubs should sign him for 1/7mm. Spell Busch at 1st against tough (not all) lefties. Some time at DH. But mostly a bench bat.
Arraez is a lefty.
He’s not going to a team to sit bench.
If arraez is willing to accept a deal for 1 year 7 million to be a bench player for the cubs id jump on that lol.
Mets will sign him for 1/45mm. Why not? They love short contracts and have seemed a bit clueless of late.
@The Raven: Just because you don’t understand the Mets plan, doesn’t mean they’re clueless. In fact, maybe you are.
Maybe The Raven missed the decimal point? 1 for 4.5M and player option/buyout for ‘27 is not an outrageous possibility.
@rct I think the main problem is the Mets don’t understand the Mets plan
The Mets don’t have a plan, Stearns is a moron
Carlos which Ivy League school did you go to?
And what is that plan? The Bichette signing was a desperation plan after whiffing on Tucker. Even in today’s incredibly inflated market there is no way BB is worth anywhere near $42M a year and for three years no less. At least when Boston signed Bregman last year for 3/$120M they got a GG defender.
rct
Just because you don’t understand the Mets plan, doesn’t mean they’re clueless.
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Let me explain the plan.
1-Trade Nimmo & McNeil so that Soto can cover all three outfield spots.
2-Have 8 SPs, and hope that the three rookies emerge.
3-Let Alonso walk and replace him with a 110 games per year guy with no 1B experience.
4-Sign a poor-fielding SS and put him at 3rd with no 3B experience
I like Stearns, but haven’t got a clue as to what he’s doing. By my reckoning, they still need a #1/2 SP, and 2 OFs.
So I think they’ll wind up spending between $375-400M, but decided to save $11M at 1B and another $6M at closer and downgrade both positions?
Definitely a slow news day for this article to be this ‘involved’. And for the suggestion that the Cubs might benefit from singing him, is ridiculous. Ballesteros offers plenty of contact and good power. Plus having a 3rd option at catcher, is more valuable than a 3rd option at 1B.
You mean if his price dropped to around what I mentioned you wouldn’t take that?
He signs 3/25 with the Padres
10 year, $10 million dollar contract, with opt-outs after year 3, 6, 9. The contract will also have 2 “opt-ins.” You can use an “opt-in” if you had previously “opted out” but failed to find a better contract in the open market. So it saves some face and the shame of the unemployment line.
Ha interesting
Who was the Padres fan that absolutely loved this guy?
HAHAHA, he said Arraez was going to get a 6 year deal.
Vegas, I can see that only if Cronenworth is moved in a trade.
He’s this generation’s Glenn Beckert. Well, without Beckert’s defense. He still provides a solid bat (on base pct.). Definitely would not have him as a starting first baseman. I could see him on a team that already had sufficient power in the lineup.
Teams probably wouldn’t even give Pete Rose a contract now days. They rather a guy hit i5 or so hrs and bat 215 .teams used to look for a guy who gets on base and doesn’t strike out alot
He shouldn’t get this. But I think somebody offers 2 years like 12 to 15 mil
Bichette gets 3 yrs. / 126M and Arraez gets 2 yrs. / 12M after winning three MLB batting titles? Somebody buy Arraez a drink.🥃
Do the Rockies have room? He’d be a perfect bat for Mile high stadium.
Actually the opposite. Arraez is a singles hitter who hits line drives just over the infielders, and hard ground balls. Coors rewards gap hitters with speed, and marginal HR power. He’s none of that.
I believe he would be good at Coors. Lots of room for his soft hits to fall in.
I said it before, at the right price, if Boston trades Duran and wants to replace the lefty bat on the roster, I’d take him. The Sox have too many who strike out when contact is needed and extending the line is the way to win today.
He might become a home run hitter there? It could happen.
Hitting it out of the park is the best way to win.
extending the line is the way to win today.
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He doesn’t really extend the line. His OBP is .337 over the past two years.
That drink won’t be a Jack and Coke, because Arraez doesn’t have any pop.
boo such a bad joke. Im laughing though.
Evan Williams neat.
@differentbears
He also can’t jack the ball out of the park.
@No ABS in ’27
Kinda says something about how front offices value batting titled doesn’t it.
Id say the premium paid for HR’s is outrageous.
Ha Seoung Kim was a prime example of this. Bo Bichette is an extreme example. Arraez and Bo Bichette are similar contact hitters. Areaez strikes out less. Bichette slugs a little more. Similar skills for the most part outside of the power hitting.
Say Arraez lands at 15M AAV for 3 seasons, the Mets will have seemingly paid 27M for 15 HRs. They didnt pay Bichette for his defense.
Kim is another example. He got 20M and it is seemingly because he hit 17 HRs in ’23 and has a .750 OPS upside. IKF will probably get less than 5M this season because he doesnt hit for power. The potential to hit 15 more home runs earned Kim 15M+ more than a good player at the same position.
@No ABS in ’27
There are better stats to use than batting average and its variants to describe a players value with the bat. For context, BA was developed and used before powered flight.
I’m not a fan of Kim because he can’t stay healthy and has a mediocre bat but you can’t discount that he can play defense at a premium position. Bo can play passable at best at premium positions and is a high average bat. Arraez is an average only guy which helps teams who just slug and strike out but has none of the defensive capabilities as the others.
I would actually land in the middle and take someone like IKF for 5-6M than Kim or Arraez. Bo is a better player but is overpaid.
Kim is also a GG caliber shortstop, that’s the much bigger difference here. Bichette was a poor defender at SS but should be at least above average when he moves down the defensive spectrum. And he doesn’t slug a little more than Arraez. He slugs a LOT more.
Bichette shouldn’t be awful at 2B. Certainly better than Arraez. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t average.
Well he’s playing 3B for the Mets, apparently.
Home runs win games.
Some still prefer their 19th century metrics.
Yeah, I was talking about the hypothetical Arraez v Bichette at 2B.
3B I don’t know. He doesn’t have a great arm but he should at least be better than he was at SS. I think 2B is likely his best position.
Without a salary cap the market doesn’t accurately value the players. The intrinsic value of a dollar is less to a team with an ownership that infuses its payroll with cash from outside the business of the team and the revenues generated from MLB.
Its a long discussion and I dont want to write it all out here in the comments but essentially a HR and a unit of WAR has become so valuable due to private wealth generated outside the operations of MLB. There is an edge in those statistics, a team with the cash can pay for it.
As far as Arraez goes, his 19th century metrics are unfathomable to me. He only struck out 21 times in 675 PAs in an era where pitchers throw 100 mph heaters and astounding breaking balls. Arreaz over the past four seasons has a K% of around 4% — it puts him up in the top 20 all time amongst a group of players from an era where starting pitchers on average threw 300+ innings.
Tony Gwynn is really the only comp for Arraez.
Arraez is only 29 years old. He had his best season in terms of K% in ’25. Gwynn had a great run of seasons in his 30’s. If Arraez stays healthy, he could put together a similar run.
Kim got $20 million because he has multiple 5 WAR seasons in his career and is elite on defense at multiple positions.
This made laugh
I’m actually not 100% convinced there’s even a major league offer on the table for him. Really. Yes it will probably happen. Either someone will lose their 1B or a total rebuilder will bring him on to give their fans an oddball to watch. But the fact that he’s now a 1B only and a poor one at that, almost no one has an opening there and carrying two 1B is pretty much impossible, he’s kind of up a creek. It’s that lack of elite OBP in addition to the utter lack of pop. He’s just not a good player..
Im not 100% convinced you understand the sport well enough to be commenting, but here you are anyway.
Anyone that has had multiple 4+ WAR seasons is a good player. Arraez is best ay 2B, his most recent team just had a better one. Throw out his rookie season in 2019 and he has a 3 DRS at 2B. That is not great, but certainly not at a level that would embarrass the team.
Personally I hope the Red Sox sign and let him play 2B full time.
Funny you say that, I was just coming to mention that of the apparently dwindling options to acquire an infielder, signing Arraez to play second for a year would be something I wouldn’t totally hate.
I hope the Red Sox sign him and let him play 2nd. For 2 years, too.
He was a 4 WAR guy. It’s a stretch to think he will be that again, now that teams know how to defend him.
An aluminum bat might help him exceed my expectations. Facing teams who play defense like him would, for sure.
Those years are gone. He was a good player in a very odd way. That way is now gone and he only plays the lowest value position on the field, very poorly, and offers little on-base and no power or baserunning value. Every team in baseball has a better 1B option except maybe the Marlins.
First Basemen
Luis Arraez (29)
Cody Bellinger (30)
Wilmer Flores (34)
Ty France (31)
Paul Goldschmidt (38)
Enrique Hernandez (34)
Rhys Hoskins (33)
Connor Joe (33)
Nathaniel Lowe (30)
Carlos Santana (40)
Dominic Smith (31)
Donovan Solano (38)
Rowdy Tellez (31)
Justin Turner (41)
LaMonte Wade Jr. (32)
Excluding Belli I’ll take Arraez out of any remaining FA 1B
Arraez’s OBP is top 20 the past 3 years. Take out 16 sac bunt attempts his manager called for last season and insert 5-6 hits he normally would have gotten in those PA and what is his OBP last season? .342-.351 which is right on his average the 2 previous seasons.
This is exactly the kind of guy we need in Anaheim. Inexpensive. Plays 2B which is a black hole for us. Doesn’t strike out. Puts the ball in play. Good things happen when you put the ball in play. Get it done Minasian. Convince Arte to do it now.
If by “plays 2B” you mean holds a glove and stands near second, sure. In terms of actually playing defense there, no.
outinleftfield
Arraez’s OBP is top 20 the past 3 years. Plays 2B which is a black hole for us.
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IMHO, that puts too much reliance from numbers 3 years old.
And doesn’t Moore play 2nd?
I’d take the following before Arraez: Goldschmidt, Hoskins, Lowe, Santana, Tellez.
You often do. Why shouldn’t they?
Joe, you often include players performance from 3 years ago to justify your own arguments. Its valid. Especially since Arraez has been playing out of position in the next 2 seasons. Moore hit .198 with a .655 OPS and struck out 33.7% of the time after being roughly league average in AA and AAA last season. He is not ready and with the holes in his swing he may never be.
How does this get 19 upvotes?
Arraez hasnt been a 4 win player since 2023. His defense has cratered since then and no one considers him to be a passable 2B. He’s a 1B at best and a bad one at that. Dude has had some ok years but he’s not a first division player.
Why would the Red Sox even think about wasting a roster spot much less start him at the keystone?
Do you mean future 5 time batting champion and HOF player Luis Arraez?
Because WAR means nothing in general, let alone for a contact-oriented player like Arraez.
only, because he is right?
Because fans just look at batting average and thinks he’s good. Must be frustrating watching a sport you’re entire life and now in the last 10 years intelligence has taken over and now you don’t understand anything about baseball.
WAR shows how relatively little value players like Arraez have.
@Thats
Funny that a OBP of .360 is considered good but .330 is bad. It could be a simple as a defender bring in just the right place. If a team has an open DH spot or 1b they should grab him, bottom line
.360 is good, and better than .330, which isn’t bad. The difference is getting on base about 15-18 more times in a season.
Arraez has 2 seasons of more than 4 WAR. It shows that when he is allowed to both play 2B and hit, he produces at a high level.
Thatsit, maybe look at WAR. Arraez has averaged above league average in full seasons other than the year his manager asked him to bunt 16 times.
Arraez has had a 4+ WAR in 2 of his last 4 seasons. Why are you trying to count only the last 2 seasons? That seems a little hinky.
Arraez is no longer a competent second baseman. And he contributes nothing offensively other than his (declining) batting average. It’s not surprising that teams aren’t lining up for his services.
The 49 starts and 421 IP sample size the last 2 seasons is far too small to make any determination of his competency on defense at 2B. You need a minimum of 2500 to even start to make a determination and even that is not ironclad. The guy who created DRS says 400 games. StatCast says that you should have a minimum of 3200 innings played. Arraez does not have that many games or innings played at 2B in his entire career.
He is a -3 DRS/162 games 2B for his career. Below average, but not near the worst. Throw out his rookie season and he is above average.
The only season he played 2B full time he was well above average at a 4 DRS. He has no range, but he also does not miss any plays once he gets to the ball. Of the 30 active players with 2500+ IP at 2B, Arraez has 2793 IP, only 3 have fewer errors. He has a really good glove and an accurate arm.
Have to wonder about absolute pronunciations of competency by people that ignore or are ignorant of the people that created the very stats they are quoting.
Thanks Web. I was about to say something shorter, but basically the same.
Ooooh. Burn.
Sorry oldsters. That baseball is long, long gone, as is your youth.
Was that a response to Seamaholic remarks, because it doesn’t sound like it.
“plays the lowest value position on the field, very poorly, and offers little on-base and no power or baserunning value. ”
Is Seam right or wrong is the way you should approach it.
Joe, Seam is wrong. As usual he is taking one season or even part of one season and trying to say that is all the player can be,
It should have been the Padres played Arraez out of position and lost the value of having him at 2B. From 2021 to 2023 Arraez was a solid defensive 2B. posting a 9 DRS.
In 2025 the Padres starting asking him to bunt an insane number of times, taking the bat out of the hands of the best contact hitter in baseball 16 times. That was stupid. Take a look at what his slashline would have been with the 5-6 more hits he would have had by his averages if he swung away.
Sacrifice bunts don’t affect your batting average or on base percentage. They aren’t counted as at bats. If they had him bunting it was probably trying to avoid double plays.
Sac bunts don’t, but the hits he would have had instead of the automatic out he got would have counted.
16 sac bunts from the best contact hitter in baseball is just plain stupid. Can’t even give a good argument against that conclusion.
At his average up to that point in his career, swinging instead of bunting would have resulted in more baserunners moved up, less outs, and more runs scored. The run expectancy of a bunt vs even a single in those 0 out situations with a man on 1B is extremely consistent year after year. We have more than 100 years of data in the live ball era to draw from. We know exactly how it works. It was stupid for the Padres to do that with Arraez.
I wouldn’t use his career average though. Maybe the current year’s plus a few hundred ABs from the past year. If someone is in a slump bunting may be better. I agree having a guy that makes this much contact bunt is silly. Should hit and run.
Sacrifice bunts, properly executed, routinely decided games back when people understood how to play baseball and fans knew how to watch baseball.
Bunting is never better. For a player like Arraez that hits for high average its beyond stupid. It guarantees that you will have more outs and less baserunners moved than if he swung the bat.
A few hundred at bats is a useless amount of data.
The rare time that a sac bunt decided a game would have been way back in the deadball era. Home runs have decided far more games than little bunts.
Using DRS because that’s the only metric that ever liked Arraez. He had terrible OAA metrics and FRV metrics at 2B. Never passed the eye test either. Has no range and terrible foot speed.
Not surprising he’s sitting around. If you can get him on a 1 year deal—-sure. His contact skills are useful in the right lineup.
outinleftfield
Joe, Seam is wrong. As usual he is taking one season
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Arraez has a 2.1 bWAR over the past two seasons. He’s only 28, so he could bounce back. But Seam is right as of today.
But more importantly. Steinbrenner called him a bootlicker because he said Arraez was not a good player. That is about as inane a comparison as I have ever heard.
but the hits he would have had instead of the automatic out he got would have counted.
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These things are averages. If he had a .337 OBP over the past two years, but got another ten ABs, he would still likely have a .337 OBP.
Web’s #2
Bunting is never better.
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1-It is if one run is going to win the game for you, like bottom of the 9th in a tied game.
2-It depends on the player. Someone like Nick Allen might be better off moving a runner ahead of the top of the lineup.
3-All lefties should be able to bunt against a shift.
That said, sacs are generally counter-productive.
Most of Arraez’ sac bunts last year were vs LHP, against which he has a career OPS of .673 and a BA 60 pts lower than against RHP. In 2025 his struggles against LHP were amplified from this career numbers.
@outinleftfield – For starters, you’re assuming those 16 sac bunts all represented equal likelihood of hits. He was sac bunting a lot versus lefties, which he does not hit well against now.
Secondly, this nonsense about “best contact hitter” has to stop. He makes a LOT of contact, but this also includes bad contact. You’re assuming putting the ball in play a lot means high quality contact – in Arraez’s case, it doesn’t. The numbers show this.
In MIN, his swing percentage outside the zone ranged from 21.9% to 25.5%. Last year, it was at 34.2% – and since leaving MIN, hasn’t been lower than 32.9%. Combine that with making more contact outside the zone than ever (92.9%), as well as a career low percentage inside the zone (60.2%), and you have a batter that’s getting worse. In summary – he’s swinging at balls more than ever, and at strikes less than ever.
While his contact percentage is at a career high (95.9%), it’s because of an increase in BAD contact.
9 of 16 attempts. That doesn’t matter. They were still counterproductive.
Swinging the bat would have still produced the same baserunners moved up on average than bunting if he hit .200 instead of .280 vs LHP. He averaged 44.3% productive outs against LHP in his career. That would be 7+ baserunners moved up. Add in 3 hits at an average of 1.6 bases advanced per hit and you are at the same number of bases advanced with 3 less outs.
Now the kicker. The out from a sac bunt reduces run expectancy more than the runner advanced increases run expectancy. It never pays to have a good hitter attempt a bunt.
It is not worth it to bunt and having the best pure hitter on the team bunting cost the Padres wins. So glad the bunting fetish is gone.
Cam, 9 of 16 attempts were vs LHP. If he hit .200 vs LHP it still would have been more effective to have him putting the ball in play. At a .200 BA, based just on run expectancy it took 3 runs off the board. Add in what the 3 hits would have added and you are wins off the board. Now add in the fact that putting the ball in play creates runs from errors and extra bases being taken and its even less effective to bunt.
Just Say No to Sacrifice Bunts by position players. What you are really sacrificing is runs and wins.
BTW, 14 of the 16 sac bunt attempts were at pitches outside the zone. Factor that into your 34.2% of swings. Yes, they count as swings at pitches outside the zone. See where your averages are once you take that into account.
@Web’s #2 – I’m not arguing the point about bunts. I’m arguing his point that Arraez is “the best contact hitter in baseball”.
Save your paragraphs for someone else.
Cam- I would love to see all those numbers run against how many pitches he fouled off with 2 strikes in the count. A good “pesky” batter type will slap a ton of balls foul to stay alive and hope for a mistake from the pitcher. Lots of balls outside the strike zone and even worse contact on them but it doesn’t matter. I would like to see how badly that kind of hitting skews the analytics on someone like Arraez.
@WadeBoggs. I don’t have time to fish this out, but I too am curious about how chase rate is calculated. You’re right that some really good hitters will foul off 2 strike pitches many of which are balls, to either work the pitcher to give the pitch they want, or to draw walks. Arraez isnt drawing walks (hardly ever) but he doesn’t foul off a lot of pitches before putting the ball in play.
Seam is wrong. Period. You can try to spin it if you want and you will just join him in being wrong.
Dang Web. Leave some of the answers to me, ok? Even though you got it exactly right, I would like the chance to show them how wrong they are.
Cam, Arraez is the best contact hitter in baseball. That is not something you can dispute. No one made more contact or put a higher percentage of balls in play. His 94.7% contact rate and 90% BIP rate the last 2 seasons is by far the highest in baseball.
You’re using the argument that he’s the best contact hitter purely due to volume. As already demonstrated, Arraez makes a lot of bad contact.
If a basketball player attempts the most shots, is he automatically the best shooter in the game? No. Just the same as putting the most balls in play doesn’t make Arraez the best contact hitter.
You’ve already been given answers, but you’re clearly not capable of understanding something you haven’t already convinced yourself of.
Absolutely he is a throw back. The lack of power, lack of walks and lack of defense will likely limit him to 1 year deals the rest of his career. Singles hitters who don’t walk are just not valued in today’s game like they used to be.
Him being a first baseman, definitely. If he was an up the middle guy, it might be different.
He has been best as a 2B.
Hose days are already 2 full seasons in the rear-view mirror, and they are not coming back. Nobody is giving serious consideration to Luis Arraez as an everyday 2B.
If that was true he’d have a job.
Tigerdoc I hate to tell you this. I don’t know how old you are and I’m not sure if you’ll even believe me. 30 years ago he would’ve been thought of just like everybody is thinking of him now. People weren’t stupid back then. If all you do is hit a bunch of singles and some doubles here and there and maybe a triple they took you for what you are a mostly singles hitter.
Shadow – start sarcasm button – yeah, no place in the game 30 or so years ago for Wade Boggs, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, Ichiro Suzuki – Pete Rose and Rod Carew before them.
See if any of those guys are in the Hall of Fame.
The stats don’t show what that player was. Every player on your list was much more than a slap contact hitter with a good batting average.
Running, defence, leadership, more power than he has, etc.
The man can hit a ball. But other than that he isn’t close to that list.
Arraez could (barely) carry those guys’ equipment bags.
About ten more of his best year might be enough to put him in the same conversation.
10 more 4 WAR seasons and he is in the HOF conversation.
Those guys didn’t really have a lot more power. Most had defense yes. What they all had was longevity and if he keeps getting 175-200 hits per year / winning battling titles then how do you keep him out of their conversation?
His big thing is times have changed in mlb.
Kenny Lofton – a lot of guys were leadoff hitters getting on base with singles.
It wasn’t until Barry Bonds that Hr hitters batted leadoff – that was to get him more ABs for the record and not really a game strategy.
Times have changed is why he isn’t claimed.
I think Pete was the first 1 million man – not any of the power hitters of his day.
Longtime I don’t know what way you are trying to be sarcastic but I’m talking about a singles hitting .300 hitter. Not those guys.
Nolan Ryan was the first $1M man.
Pete had 18 years with 9 or less HR most of those in the 0-6 range.
Start looking at the % of singles to total hits for those guys and see how that % compares to Luis.
You will find that you are talking about those guys when you say “singles hitters” hitting .300.
Oh my gosh. Never mind.
And he was just a .500 pitcher his first owner didn’t even want!
He didn’t hit for power or average!
Ohhhh boy ok let’s go through these.
Boggs walked a TON and also played a pretty good 3B.
Puckett was a 6 time gold glove CF with moderate power.
Ichiro was one of the greatest defensive OFs and baserunners to ever play the game.
Pete Rose was the most overrated player in baseball history.
Gwynn and Carew are more similar, but they were WAY better at what they did than Arraez. Also they were both decent defenders and baserunners in their younger days.
Arraez doesn’t come close to those guys.
Willie McGee comes to mind..
No Q
Hear me say, I don’t disagree with other attributes that you point out for those guys/
This all started with a post about how he is only a singles hitter and doesn’t have value.
And that 30 years ago mlb had similar approach tk singles hitters as there is today.
My reply was to address that there is a long history of guys – at the plate – that hit a lot of singles percentage wise – and they were treated differently 30 years ago than a singles hitter today – meaning today everything is analytics.
The context was hitting singles not having a vaue in today’s game.
I completely agree that Luis does not offer the non-hitting elements of the game that this I mentioned did.
However, at the plate, they are all fairly comparable in the percentage of singles to overall hits in their careers AND in their day, they were revered for hitting.
It wasn’t about trying to make Luis comparable to those guys in the overall.
Long time, I can go with that.
He’s definitely a talented bat to ball guy who unfortunately just doesn’t have the athleticism or speed to take it to the next level.
He’ll always be able to get a contract as long as he’s hitting. It just has to be for the right team. He learned from Carew and modeled his approach after him. If he can teach teammates make more contact, he’s valuable.
@longtime Those guys were all excellent to great players though. Arraez isn’t anywhere near their level. But it’s true that he would be much more highly regarded had he played in the 1980’s or earlier.
It’s great to have someone here so full of knowledge and wisdom. You really are the smartest guy in the room.
But 40 or 50 years ago he would have been viewed as a much better player than he is. Before Bill James came along, people thought high-average hitters with little power were just great.
Tigerdoc: As a Giants fan I have seen plenty of Arraez. It seems he fouls off lots of pitches which is actually getting pitch counts up. He probably could walk more if he took more pitches but he is a thorn in the side of opponents fighting pitches off and then dumping hits all over the field. HR’s are lacking but I think being on base for power hitters lower in the lineup has a value. Many more RBI chances for teammates. His hitting style reminds me of a mini Rod Carew. Lots of contact is a good thing. And his age is a plus also. I think he will be signed and actually help a team
The Giants field might be good for him too. Not saying Padre’s field was bad for his style though.
If you are a very good hitter with RISP I don’t care if you hit singles. If he can get back to his 2022 and 2023 BA with RISP he may be worth the gamble.
Kenny, he’s definitely worth a contract with the right team.
Kind of makes sense for the Rockies
Agreed sign him to a two year deal mutual option for 2nd year and if he’s playing well easy trade candidate
When was the last time a 1B was traded at the deadline? They just have no value unless they’re exceptionally productive hitters. Teams are stacked with professional hitters who can only play 1B/DH, and who have some power.
When?
Last year
Naylor to the Mariners
Tyler Locklear to Dbacks in Suarez trade
Ryan O Hearn went to the Padres as 1B/DH
Ty France got traded to the Blue Jays
Seam, when was the last time a 1B was not traded at the deadline?
I agree. Any team looking for a deadline trade piece, here is your man. Wrap him up, add bubble wrap, and call the front office.
I had Luis Arraez signing with the Rangers in the MLBTR FA Contest. That looks less likely now with their financial situation.
The Rockies might provide Arraez his best opportunity on a one year make good contract. 28-year old right-handed hitting Blaine Crim currently sits atop their 1B depth chart. Top prospect Charlie Condon has yet to appear at AAA and may not be an option until later this summer.
Arraez could potentially hit .400 at home in spacious Coors Field leading up to the summer trade deadline. 🙂
People keep hating on a batting champion. please come to the dbacks. ill gladly take a little less defense and a 300 hitter
At what possible position?
I couldn’t name their 1B, that seems like a fit to me. Especially since they get plus power from their 2B already.
Cleveland….are you awake? Can we do anything? This feels like a solid addition to that lineup.
Just read your comment and thought about that. I forgot they’re around they’ve been so quiet. Have they done anything at all? Even for them it’s a quiet winter.
Other than dumpster diving for bullpen pieces, nothing.
It really seems like Arraez is a 1B/DH at this point. I am sure the Guards love the contact but he doesn’t seem like a great fit. They are already have tons of lefty batters. Plus they already have Manzardo/Kayfus to cover 1B/DH. I wouldn’t bounce either of those guys for Arraez.
The Guardians won’t put a bad defender like Arraez in their middle infield for certain. They’re one of the few teams that value defense very highly.
Haha did you Manzardo at 1st? That was rough. Trade Kwan we know its coming. DeLauter in LF, Jones for some reason still on this team in CF, Valera in RF. Kayfus can split RF and 1st.Arraez and Manzardo can share DH.
Guards – it would seem Kayfus and Manzardo will split the 1B/DH duties. Kayfus will likely get a bulk of the reps at first, since Manzardo is a bad defender. But they will get him in the field a bit since they can rotate others into the DH slot.
I don’t think removing Kwan and replacing with Arraez improves the offense.
Seattle should be in on Arraez. Could mostly DH, occasionally play first and second as needed…
Take out all the times that Shildt asked him to sac bunt and he had his normal season. Small ball to that extreme is never worth it. The stats show it without question.
A “normal” season for him still wouldn’t be worth much in today’s game.
I think a “normal” season for him has great value. His .790 OPS and 118 OPS+ is far above league average.
update on his career numbers: .777 OPS and 115 OPS+
His normal season prior to 2025 was .790 and 118 OPS+. 2025 was definitely not a normal season since he was asked to sac bunt 16 times instead of zero like normally had.
You do know most of those sacs were against left handed pitchers? He hit .258 against lefties in 2025. He was also a .600 hitter on bunt attempts. Only one of those hits was without a runner on first.
bob, prior to 2025 Arraez hit .278 against LHP. One year of splits is almost entirely useless.. Too much variance year to year. Especially when you are talking about the short side of the platoon which makes up just 25% of the total PA.
If all of those PA where he was asked to sac bunt in 2025 were against LHP, he still has 4-5 more hits on average if he swings away instead of sac bunting in those 16 PA. He was 12 for 16 on those sac bunts and not one was a single. He would have moved up the runners more bases without bunting and had less outs. Losing that out has more negative value than the positive value of the baserunner being moved over in run expectancy. So many reasons not to do what Shildt did with Arraez last season.
Schildt keeping him at the top of the order all year was maddening. He had an expected xwoba of .300 (he was in the .350’s in his best years). He chased at pitches out of the zone more then ever (and 20% moreso than the average big leaguer). Tatis, Merrill & Machado will make for a much better top of the order.
People saying the Padres played him out of position and think he should be at 2b are devaluing defense too much. He looked like a fine fill-in, but not what you want everyday at an up the middle position.
I worry he is entering Adam Frazier territory, with the bat.
As for his career numbers against LHP, his career OPS is .673. With a man on first no out in a tie bottom of the 9th against a LHP with Machado and Merrill coming to bat, a sac bunt does seem to be the best decision. It helps too that he’s a good sac bunter.
Brew, prior to 2025 Arraez hit .278 against LHP. his OPS was not mentioned and a single is better than a sac bunt 100% of the time. He had no sac bunt attempts I could find in the 9th inning in a tie game.
In tie games last season he hit .327/.355/.416/.771 and against LHP in tie games he hit .311. There would be no reason to have a guy like that bunt in that situation.
12 for 16 is not all that good. 75-85% is average.
Sacrifice bunts don’t affect your batting average or on base percentage. They aren’t counted as at bats. If they had him bunting it was probably trying to avoid double plays.
Wade, he GIDP at a lower rate than MLB average last season. 9.2% vs 9.9% That is not the reason. Shildt just seemed to value small ball, data be dammed. Yes, I know I misspelled that.
His OBP was .40 lower than his average season, and sac bunting didn’t affect that.
Brew, it absolutely affected his OBP. Add 5-6 more hits if he is swinging instead of bunting. Now what is his batting average? Now add that to his OBP.
Texas
Angels for the Win
Perfect fit at 2B for the Angels.
They will play him at SS!
Would be fun to see him get a season at 2B for the Angels.
I don’t think he’ll get a big deal but I’ll bet someone gives him at least 2 years. He’s only 28. Even a 3 year deal wouldn’t shock me.
If he was a better defender, even at first base, he would already be signed. But the guy isn’t all that great at defense so he’s probably limited to one-year deals for now.
His skills are working against him. Last season he swung too much and made too much contact out of the zone, leading to a lot of weak balls put in play. His hard-hit rate plummeted. blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-has-entered-the-co…
Yes, hard hit rate matters even if you aren’t a power hitter. He needs to stop chasing those pitches out of the zone, because swinging at them isn’t producing good outcomes even though he is able to make contact with them because of his elite bat control.
He wasn’t super aggressive outside the zone with the Twins, he should go back do doing that. He started using the super-aggressive, swing-at-everything approach with the Marlins in the first half of 2023, when his chase rate went from 24.1% to a 31.8% chase rate. But since the second half of 2023, his production at the plate has slowly been dwindling, and he’s only continued to get more and more aggressive. His already low 88.3 MPH exit velocity in 2023 fell to 86.1 MPH, which is a pretty big difference.
HH% includes sac bunts. He was asked to sac bunt a MLB leading and totally ridiculous 16 times last season. Remove those from the equation and where is he?
That is interesting. How many double plays does he hit into? I imagine his brand of weak contact leads to more double plays.
Just looked it up. He tends to be on the high side of GIDP but not egregious. He GIDP 18 times in both 23 & 24 and 12 times in 25. He hardly bunted at all in 23 & 24.
Last season he GIDP at 9.2%. MLB average was 9.9%. He came to the plate with a runner at 1B and 0-1 outs 130 times.
His chase rate went up considerably last season, a stat not affected by sac bunts
Removing bunts moves his Hard Hit rate from 16.7% to 17.3%. Not much of a difference. baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&…
Mets should have signed him instead of Polanco tbh. At least he plays first.
That said, they can still sign him and use Polanco at DH.
I think it’s definitely still on the table although I think they really need to find 2 outfielders first
Some hit and runs with Soto on base in front of him could be fun
This isn’t about whether he could be an improvement for a few clubs, its just their asking price is too high. How do the Rockies not sign him 1 yr 8 mil?
This is the player the Angles desperately need. Someone who can actually make contact and hit
No one desperately needs Luis Arraez
Seems like an Expo
Unfortunately this type of player earns more via arbitration system than free-agency. Arraez believes he is worth way more than Willi Castro 2x $12.8M contract despite being an inferior player (when accounting for power, defense and running value) and will probably end up settling for a 1 year with slightly higher AAV. Next season will be the same but less AAV and he might be a NRI after that. It’s a shame for Arraez but his best earning days are behind him.
Arraez is worth more than Castro. Arraez even when used in a terrible manner at the plate by Vic and playing 1B, which depresses WAR, is a positive WAR player. Castro was not. He played positions with large positional adjustments to WAR and still only achieved a -0.1 WAR.
If all you changed was the position Arraez played in 2025 from 1B to 2B with the same defensive numbers for DRS and FRV, his bWAR is 2.1 and his fWAR is 1.9. A league average starter.
As several people have noted, Arraez was asked to sac bunt 16 times. Not only did that cost the Padres runs, it cost Arraez hits which lowered his BA, OBP, and OPS. I blame that on both Vic Rodriguez and Shildt. They had a commitment to small ball that went beyond logic or what the stats say is most valuable to winning.
If you are wondering, the last time any non-pitcher had 16 sac bunt attempts was Juan Pierre in 2007. Juan Pierre was the definition of a singles hitter. His SLG was 52 points lower than Arraez’s. Hopefully we never see another player asked to do that.
Web, is that correct. Just by playing 2B full time he would have been a 2 WAR player last season? Going to have to get out my abacus and figure that one out.
Yes or maybe
Arrarez needs more of the approach he had with the Twins. It might mean a few more strikeouts, but it’ll lead to a lot more walks, and more hard hit batted balls.
2019-2022 with the Twins:
-8.3% K%
-8.7% BB%
-24.1% chase rate
-7.1% whiff rate
-88.9 MPH exit velocity
-.289 xBA
-.341 xwOBA
2024-2025 with the Marlins and Padres:
-3.3% K%
-4.2% BB%
-34.1% chase rate
5.3% whiff rate
-86.1 MPH exit velocity
-.287 xBA
-.303 xwOBA
the increased chase rate likely has a lot to do with his decreased exit velo
Arraez’s decreased exit velocity had more to do with being asked to sac bunt 16 times. That is a ball in play so counts towards exit velocity. Although for Arreaz, exit velo has never been much of an issue since he has never been higher than 9th or 10th percentile. His exit velo is always low.
No, he’s right, it’s because his super-aggressive approach means he’s getting less good contact vs pitches outside the zone. I’m pretty sure bunts aren’t used to calculate exit velocity. Plus, Arraez used to be about average in exit velocity. In 2022, he was in the 48th percentile.
You do understand that most of the time he’s not TRYING to hit the ball hard.
Yes, but nearly a 3 MPH drop in ev is still something to note.
A 3 mph drop in exit velocity could be almost entirely attributed to dropping down bunts 16 times at 10-30 mph or less if it’s an exceptionally good bunt.
Arraez’s exit velocity on pitches outside the strike zone was exactly the same as his exit velocity on pitches inside the zone.
Like I said in my previous comment, I’m pretty sure bunts don’t count toward exit velocity. I could be wrong, so if I am, please correct me.
This is also because he’s lost a tick of bat speed.
Bunts are absolutely filtered out and not in that calculation. Anyone telling you they are is pushing their own Arraez agenda. I agree with your analysis.
The chase rate is the problem that is likely bringing the exit velo’s down. That’s potentially fixable. Arraez is far different than any other hitter on your team. I don’t know what hitting coach is the best fit to work with him and correct that.
He’s useful in the right lineup. His bat to ball skill is very unique. He won’t be getting paid well this offseason though.
Sac bunts aren’t counted in exit velocity
The comps to Gwynn and Carew fell off the table this last year when Arraez’ chase rate went to the moon. His OBP dropped to .327 down from his career average OBP of .365.
Carew and Gwynn in their prime had OBP well over .400
I’m highly skeptical that his exit velo was same for strikes v balls. Can you show the data to support this claim?
Yeah, he didn’t have the same EV on pitches in the zone vs pitches outside the zone:
EV on pitches in the zone: 87.7 MPH
EV on pitches outside the zone: 82 MPH
I never got the comps to Gwynn and Carew outside of the fact he’s a contact-oriented hitter. Carew had 353 stolen bases and was considered a solid defensive 2B and 1B. Gwynn stole 319 bases and was a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder at his peak. Even outside of BA, it was never a close comparrison. So far, Arraez’s career-best OPS is .861. Both Gwynn and Carew had multiple seasons with an OPS over .900,
Btw, this also isn’t true for Arraez’s career:
EV on pitches in the zone: 89.2
EV on pitches outside the zone: 82.6
thx @mlb1225, it would amaze me if they were the same velocities (wasn’t for me as a hitter!)
All balls in play count towards exit velocity. Bunts are balls in play.
Bat speed also includes bunts when your bat speed is zero or negative.
Sac bunts are counted in exit velocity. All balls in play are. Most players only have 1 or 2 a seasons, so they don’t skew the numbers much. When you have 16, it really messes with the data.
Bunts are not included in bat speed because they use competitive swings to measure that, and a bunt isn’t considered a competitive swing. I’ve also never seen anything that suggests bunts are part of exit velocity.
Arraez has played limited 2B the last few years and didn’t make an error there last year; only 14 games there.
With the Giants and Mariners looking for help at 2B but also with middle infield prospects coming why not sign him to play Second for a season? Replace him late in game for defense. SFG has Ron Washington on their staff now; he’s an infield defensive guru. It isn’t ideal but Arraez’ bat should get him a job somewhere.
It’s not Ideal, it would a disaster. Even though he doesn’t even have 450 innings at second base between 2024 and 2025, his -9 outs above average at the position the last two years is the fourth fewest in baseball at 2B.
OAA only measures range.
-9 OAA in about 420 innings at a middle infield position is pretty much unplayable range then.
In the world we live in now with the shift ban—a complete lack of range is an issue.
420 innings is not enough to even judge how he did. You do know that StaCast says you need something like 2500 innings before their data can give you an accurate measure?
It’s just how much the game has changed. Everything now is about launch angle and speed off the bat. Kids today are taught it’s all about the long ball. Baseball even tried to change the rules to bring back the stone base and it just didn’t happen. Nobody knows how to bunt anymore. Nobody hit sacrifice flies or hits behind runners. Everything is boom or bust home run or strike out. There is never gonna be another 3000 hit player if they started their career in the last five years.
Look at my angels for example 3rd in the league and home runs almost broke a major league record for strikeouts in a season by a team team batting average 228
Yet here you are, following every single move baseball makes.
In the new league, maybe the managers and coaches don’t have to wear the uniforms?
Analytics is ruined sports. But the sport that was affected the most by far without a doubt was baseball.
It has changed the game ruined a beautiful game
They’re saying that this guy has no power as the first thing everybody goes to
Tony Gwynn didn’t have much power and he’s the best hitter I’ve ever seen. Rod Carew. Did not have a lot of power and the ugliest swing in the history of baseball. Nobody bitches about them
This man has won three batting titles and he cannot get a contract. But if he was hitting 230 and has won home run titles with the exact same attributes can’t run can’t play defense has no position
Because of the home runs, he’d be getting a $200 to $400 million contract
“But if he was hitting 230 and has won home run titles with the exact same attributes can’t run can’t play defense has no position”
That’s because runs are more important than singles. lol it’s hilarious how you guys STILL don’t get it.
What’s really important about runs is when you score them. Power hitters have no control over when that happens. Contact hitters do.
Baseball changed the rules to favor stolen bases in 2023. Stolen base totals jumped from 2,487 in 2022 to 3,503 in 2023. It was the highest total since 1987 (there are more teams now than in 1987). There are plenty of stolen bases now, there just aren’t single players stealing ~100 bases like in the 80s. It’s more spread out, with players like Juan Soto and Josh Naylor stealing 30+. baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hisb3.shtml
“Tony Gwynn didn’t have much power and he’s the best hitter I’ve ever seen. Rod Carew. Did not have a lot of power and the ugliest swing in the history of baseball. Nobody bitches about them.”
Yeah, but let’s see what Gwynn and Carew also did, other than hit for a really good average. Gwynn stole 319 bases throughout his career, and was an excellent defensive outfielder at his prime. He led the league in total zone runs three times throughout his career. He had +76 TZR through his age-32 season, and had double-digit outfield assists 6 times. On top of that, he was 10x the hitter Arraez was. His lowest single full-season OPS was .772 in 1990, which was only five points lower than Arraez’s career .777 OPS. Gwynn led the league in bWAR twice as well.
Meanwhile, Rod Carew was an even better base stealer with 353 steals and had seven seasons with 20+ SBs. Carew was a solid defensive second baseman, and an even better defensive first baseman, leading 1B’s in TZR 4 times. He led the league in bWAR three times.
You don’t see nearly as many people complain about similar players like Nico Hoerner, Xavier Edwards, Jacob Wilson, or Chandler Simpson because they do more than just hit for average, and some hit even better than Arraez does. No one would complain about Arraez if he was a decent base runner and was a solid defender at 1B/2B.
The rent is too da*n high.
Can’t speak for other teams, but not a fit on Detroits roster, especially after re-upping with Gleyber.
Nothing to do with being upset. He is making too much weak contact, leading to bad outcomes. He was better when his hard rate was in the 30s. Last year it was 16.7%.
He can’t run, field, or hit anything other than weak singles. He doesn’t need to sell out for power, but some more doubles would be nice.
Yeah, and it’s not like guys with a similar approach at the plate aren’t valuable, because they bring value elsewhere. Jacob Wilson, Nico Hoerner, Steven Kwan, Alejandro Kirk, Geraldo Perdomo, Jose Ramirez, Ernie Clement, all had a sub-12% K% last year with a well above-average batting average, but they all do something other than a low K% and high BA, whether that be hit for a power, run well, field well, or some mix of all.
Arraez is sort of like an anti-Chris Carter, and it’s like why Chris Carter fall out of the league after he led the league in home runs with 41 in 2016. It’s because he couldn’t hit for any average, wasn’t considered a good base runner, and wasn’t some phenominal fielder at a less-than-premium position (first base).
He hasn’t made a tone of errors at 2B or 1B, I guess they just don’t look at field stats they way they use to. I don’t care that he can’t hit 30HR and K 200 times, I’d take one or two of him in any lineup day after day anywhere in the field or at DH.
At 1B they only look at range and errors unfortunately. They don’t look at all the other things a 1B does. Catcher is similarly not judged effectively on their defense.
I want the Braves to get him so bad. We are so heavy on the home run or bust philosophy that having a guy like this to add just a freckle of balance in the lineup with be huge. DH him, play him at 2nd, trade Oz idc, this dude brings a level of balance the braves desperately need
His OBP last year was only .327. That’s not an alternative to the HR of Bust players.
If he could play an average 2B he would have been signed. A 1B or DH that has no power isn’t in demand.
I get so excited every time MLBTR writes an article about Arraez. I immediately scroll down to the comment section to see the bickering and heated exchanged over baseball’s most polarizing one-tool player. And once more I am not disappointed.
Lowest common denominator governs the comments section. Only a few dozen that are both knowledgeable and nice too.
I was thinking he might be a Rod Carew style player–but seems like a little less than that.
Arráez needs more seasons like 2022 and 2023 to gain more value..
20-30 SO’s a season seems crazy these days.
Minor league contract with invite to spring training.
I Know that Luis Arraez’s WAR in 2015 was .9 to 1.2.. Not Good. But then I get stuck on 181 hits and the fact the he rarely K’s (he does not walk much either). He puts the ball in play and many teams, Mariners included, need one more bat who does that. The Mariners grabbed Refsnyfer to hit Lefties,. He hit .302 vs LH’s in 2025. Arraez hit .304 vs. RH pitching. What a nice DH platoon….A decent leadoff platoon. You don’t need him in the field. I know there is little power but the guy puts the ball in play. If you can get him on a one year deal on the cheap, say $6-7 million…. Grab him.
Singles hitters don’t do well in T-Mobile Park these days. Adam Frazier hit over .300 with the Pirates/Padres in 2021 and made the All-Star Game. He also rarely struck out. The minute he was traded to the Mariners a bunch of those hits turned into outs, and he hit .238.
And then Frazier hit .240 in Baltimore and .202 in KC in subsequent seasons. He might have been on the downside. I have heard that our ballpark is not a HR Hitters park at times but singles? Respectively disagree.
I wish Adam Frazier his 300 for Padres, instead he gave us .266 with OPS of .660. Fraizer was decent for 3 months in Pittsburgh in 2021, that’s the only real highlight of his career
Come home to the Twins. Yes, they signed Bell for 1st but you will be warmly accepted plus the Twins are going nowhere fast.
Might actually go to some games this year if Arraez is back. You know his ABs will have action. It’s not like Clemens or Julien have a spot locked in, or shouldn’t anyway
Someone will pay Arraez because he has proven he can make contact with Major League pitching. With no defensive range, power, foot- or bat-speed, he profiles as a no-slug DH.
Hard to get excess value out of a Pickleball dinker. Even fair value if he’s asking too much
Teams play their no hit catchers at DH all the time but for some reason it’s a bad idea to have an actual productive hitter there because he doesn’t hit HRs
He should have a job but he doesn’t offer enough of a skill-set to help a good team except as a pure bench bat.
Needs to find team with power already, but has low OBP. Solo hrs are not that much help. His OB isn’t great, but definitely would help a team.
It helps when your decent OBP is so largely from base hits as runners can only advance on a walk when there’s one on first base obviously. Illogically many people have disagreed with me on that even though it’s common sense. Also value is relative. On the right team this type of hitter is quite valuable.
That said he isn’t that great of a player (tho he could rebound). I think he could get a 2 year deal tho.
2 years 13 mil to the Giants
I could see that as a possibility. Pivot from the Donovan stalemate. In game platoon with Schmitt/Koss @ 2B. Get a couple knocks, then grab some pine and watch the boys play defense.
So many Luis Arraez haters here and most if not all have to be analytic nerds. Aside from winning 3 consecutive batting titles from 2022-2024, Arraez also led his league in hits the last two seasons including his “poor” season this past year. It says a lot about the current state of MLB when a player leads his league in hits with just 181.
Btw: It’s not as if Arraez only hits singles. He still managed 42 extra base hits among those 181 including 30 doubles, 4 triples and 8 homers. Those “power” numbers were his typical ratio despite his “low” .292 BA in 2025.
In my opinion, it’s much less that he hits for contact, and more so his only skill is htting for contact. There are plenty of hitters in MLB who are on Arraez’s level with a similar approach that aren’t nearly as devisive: Nico Hoerner, Xavier Edwards, Chandler Simpson. All are high batting average, low walk/low strikeout guys. But most fans are going to take any of Hoerner, Edwards, or Simpson over Arraez. All three are excellent baserunners (especially Simpson), and both Hoerner and Edwards are outstanding defensive middle infielders.
I’d take Arraez over Kristian Campbell or David Hamilton at 2nd.
I like that idea. Lead him off or bat him in front of power hitters. He can get on base and they score him with a HR. He should also still be able to field his position and has enough experience where he shouldn’t cost you a game in the field or with his bat.
Absolutely. Willi Castro just signed a multi-year deal. Here is a guy that when they just let him play at 2B put up successive 4 WAR seasons with an OBP of .384 and OPS of .829. Sign him to a 2-3 year deal in the $10-12 million AAV range and set him at 2B full time. Let him focus on his hitting, not on changing positions every few games.
The Padres totally misused him in 2025. They not only kept moving him around the diamond, they tried to turn him into a bunter instead of a hitter. It backfired. His entire game suffered. Not sure if that came from their manager or their hitting coach, but both are gone and how they used the best contact hitter in baseball is at least a small part of why..
Right now there are several teams that could use someone like him that always puts the ball in play. In the AL, Boston, Cleveland, LA, and KC. In the NL, Colorado and San Francisco.
I think the best fit is Arraez in Fenway, Look at his spray charts the last few years. He would pepper the Green Monster for doubles. They need a full time 2B unless they sign Suarez to play 3B, which is not something I can see Breslow doing. Mayer will end up at 3B which leaves 2B to Gonzalez and Hamilton if Campbell is still in AAA.
He made 14 starts at 2B and had 0 starts there until September.
You’re trying to sell your story for sure but in reality he was left to play 1B/DH for the first 5 months of the year. His best offensive output was actually in those final 2 months when they moved him around at 1B/DH/2B.
That one doesn’t work.
Yes, but he wasn’t going to see much at 2B with Croenworth there. There could be a fit for a team that wants a cheap below ave defender.
Best hitter in baseball
He should go to the Rox for a prove-it year.
Padres
2yr/18 mil
9 mil first year, 2nd year is player option, 9 mil or 500k buyout.
Seems fair to me, 18 million is ample “security” and he can hit the market again fresh off a .350 season if he can be tony gwynn again
I was thinking he would come here to Anaheim for about that much.
I was hoping the Rangers would sign him. Arraez is the opposite of everything the Rangers failed offense has become the past two seasons. For a team that cannot make contact, what’s wrong with a player who does? For a team desperately needing offense, what’s wrong with a hitter that can actually hit? Lack of power and all, Arraez is a much better option at first than Jake Burger, and a much better option at second than whoever the Rangers would put there. Sadly, it seems the Rangers are going to go into the season expecting Burger and Josh Jung to suddenly figure it out. It’s going to be another long season of offensive futility for the Texas Rangers. Maybe you might not want a lineup full of guys like Arraez. But power and production are what the other eight hitters should bring. Arraez is a hitter. The Rangers don’t have many hitters.
Put Shaw and Ballesteros in a deal for Gore then sign Arraez for full time DH. Would be a hell of a lineup and rotation
As someone whom idolized Tony Gwynn, I find it very sad that there is such a great pure hitter in the game whose is marginalized because he is a pure hitter. It truly is sad. When get on base and move the runners over is overruled by strikeout until we hit a home run, it’s a sad day for baseball. I would prefer a team that hits over .300 from top to bottom over a team full of .200 hitters that hit the occasional home run.
I fear he will only get a minor league contract offer for someone who has made getting 200 or almost 200 hits easy in a full season.
He’s getting a major league offer for sure. Think the Rox will swoop in.
You won’t prefer it when you’re watching them lose 100 games a year.
Dont believe this article. They worship the hr. Arraez is top 10 batter in the game every year.
Multi year. Not a long term one, but 2 years sounds about right. Not someone we need.
As an old school baseball guy, I love him at the stick. The issue of course is that a lot of the high AVG, less power players of the ‘80’s could not just hit, but were good to great at their defensive position as well. Mattingly obviously had more power than Luis, but was considered a lesser HR hitting 1B who hit for average. He also racked up 9 gold gloves.
Luis would be lucky to get more than a one year deal, and may have to accept a platoon/pinch hitting roll to get even that.
As a DH, this doesn’t matter.
Hitters are rewarded for being run producers. Arraez is a great contact hitter but his only strong run producing strength is getting on base which is wholly dependent on his batting average. He’s a classic #2 hitter but teams are not structuring their lineups that way any longer. If he’s not hitting .325+ he’s more of a liability than an asset in a good lineup.
It seems strange that everybody has opinions about how Arraez is useless or useful, but nobody talks about where he hits in the order.
As a 2 hitter, there are VERY few people more useful. Reds could put him at DH, move Elly back to leadoff with Arraez behind him…….very, very useful in close games, which the Reds with their pitching staff will have a lot of.
The stat dorks who never played have conned people into thinking that power pitching and power hitting are the only things which matter, and have evolved a system of stats to “back it up”…..those who are weak in statistical understanding fall for this. They’re wrong.
2 hole demands, above all, bat control and contact. OBP is nice, but a high average and a lot of productive outs are more important.
To beat GOOD pitchers, you don’t get a lot of walks or lot of 3 run homers. Real baseball teams who don’t have unlimited budgets need to win with good pitching, good defense, and offenses which can produce the decisive run at the critical time.
Since defense IS important, you need to DH him to get max value. Not every team can have a no power DH, but when you have a SS like Elly, you can.
Hopefully, the Reds sign him if he isn’t too expensive. Would make Friedl redundant…..
I wonder how many hit and runs the Padres tried with him. You would think they would be going nuts with them since he hardly strikes out.
“2 hole demands, above all, bat control and contact”.
Luis Arraez makes bad contact. A lot of bad contact, in fact. It doesn’t take a “stat dork” to prove it either.
Putting the ball in play a lot doesn’t mean putting the ball in play well.
A player that hits for a .300 plus average and has 3 straight batting titles makes good contact. It takes a person with an extremely low knowledge of baseball to try to say otherwise.
The information is there – it’s not my fault you can’t understand it. If you’re limited in what you can grasp, you shouldn’t be throwing shade at anyone else.
But clearly, you know things that every front office in baseball doesn’t, right?
You know what would be interesting……. with all the HOF talk.
What if Luis wins 2 more batting titles. So 5 batting titles and lets say 2500 hits ( possible as hes only 28 and over 1k)
How do u keep him out? Especially 300 wins and 3000 hits are not numbers many ( if any) in this era are going to reach much at all.
I think u have to put him in even w his crappy WAR
Everyone w 5 is in
Very interesting point! He may not be valued as a starting player long enough to get to that many hits though. I guess 2 batting titles is attainable though.
If team’s analytics look at the Brewers last season, they may view more favorably on this guy. There’s plenty of bottom dwellers that can’t spend like drunken sailors that would love to make a guy like this part of the rebuild.
Brewers are great at not spending money on 1B/DH.
Giants have Casey Schmitt at 2B, Guardians have Gabriel Arias.
He’d be a great pinch hitter also. Manny Mota
As a Rays fan, I would sign him and plug him in at SS for a year just to end the Taylor Walls experiment. Over 500-600 at-bats, with Walls hitting around .200 and Arraez around .300, that’s 50-60 more hits every year than Walls, and I would think that makes up for the defensive shortcomings. They only need 1 year until Carson Williams is ready at Short, and everyone knows the Rays aren’t making the playoffs with the lackluster lineup and pitching staff they have after all of the trades. Why not take one for the fans and let us be rewarded in a trash season and sign a SS that fans will enjoy watching hit?
I would like to see him attempt SS so I am on board.
I’m surprised that the Rockies haven’t already signed him to a two-yeae deal. He’d be an immediate upgrade to their strike-prone offense. He could slot in at 1B, where the Rockies don’t have a viable option.
strikeout-prone offense
Arraez is a DH at this point, a First Baseman if he absolutely has to be. Could be a cheap buy low option for a team like the Guardians or the Nationals
Arraez primarily played 1B for SD last season.
I’d love the mariners to DH Arreaz or 2B on occasions. He would set a good example hitting #1 in the lineup in the make contact department
All the talking heads would laugh at this but the Nats need a first baseman. He’s someone that could get on base in from of James Wood. He also could get a few RBIs batting third.
2 yrs/$22mm or 3yrs/$30mm
And they could always flip him.
Somewhere in between the poles of “useless” and “everyday player” I think Arraez could be a very useful specialist. A guy who makes as much contact as he does could be a very useful situational hitter to have on your bench as a pinch hitter in certain leverage moments. He’s like the hitter version of a specialist reliever. Not good at everything, but very good at one thing. Sometimes the one thing is what you need most. But usually to fit on a four player bench with this offensive profile, you need to offer some defensive flexibility. But if a team had a position player group with lots of flexibility already, that’s an okay bat waiting for a leverage moment late in the game against a high strikeout leverage reliever. Whether or not a team would value that on a multiyear deal is another question. I kind of doubt it. If he had a glove, I think so.
It all depends on what a team is starting with. The Rockies should welcome Arraez, who would be a better hitter for them than just about everyone they currently have (except Goodman, Tovar, and, maybe from one side, Moniak). Sign Arraez, Rockies!
Yea right he is a hall of famer ni more worshippong the hr.
Luis Arraez won’t even make a team’s hall of fame.
Dodgers will probably sign him for bench depth.
Rupert: Arraez doesn’t cost enough for the Dodgers. Lol
Rupert, I have a better idea. The Dodgers should absorb Kris Bryant’s contract, and have him be their bench depth.
The Dodgers would probably rather use a cardboard cutout of Luis Arraez than the actual guy.
Angels or Mariners
Would’ve been a good fit for the A’s but we ended up with Jeff McNeil instead. Man would it have been fun seeing Arraez and Jacob Wilson batting 1-2 every night.
Most definitely!
W all those Mashers behind
As get Wilson n McFool to set the table, they will score a lot of runs
Perhaps 3 guys close in on 100 rbi
Very entertaining brand of baseball for those who live n bleed ” no lead is ever safe” games
Jeff McNeil gets on base more often than Arraez and has more power.
Padres are working on several trade options right now and at least one of them would open up a spot for Arraez at 2B.
I’m thinking late-stage Matty Alou is a good comp
Yes, much better comp than Carew/Gwynn
He’d upgrade 1B for the Nats. And even if he won’t have a ton of trade value, they might want to spend at least some money to put a non-embarrassing product on the field.
Arraez is going to be a hall of famer. Yet this article would put Eugenio Suarez a better batter. Arraez also hits 30-40 doubles and 10hr. Arraez is a talented batter who puts the ball in play and makes the defense work. Yet mlb and articles like this worship the hr. You would rather see bush league baseball .225 average, 40 hr, 180 ks. Please white sox sign Arraez!
I agree but he will need 2 more batting titles and reach 2500 hits
Then hes in IMO
He averages about 25 doubles per year, and while he reached 10 HRs in one year, his average is 6.5 HRs per 600 ABs
Every single he ever hits with no runners on is no better than taking a walk. Many hitters have similar OBP as him, better power numbers, yet because their batting average is lower they are valued to a lesser degree because of fans like you who can’t accept how modern baseball is played and analyzed. I’d take Lars Nootbaar or Haliot Ramos over Arraez any day, players with similar OBP numbers, but provide better value for what they’d cost due to lack of name recognition.
He might have to settle for a minor league or split majors / minors deal. And then whoever signs him may only be speculating that he may have trade value later or depth in case of an injury. He might end up signing in Korea or Mexico.
Zero chance he has to take a minor league deal
3x batting champ
He will get a major league deal, but it will be what a 2 WAR player is worth. Teams aren’t hungry for a .320-330 OBP light swinging first baseman.
A 2 WAR player is worth about $20 million this offseason.
2.5 WAR players with power are going for $10-20M sure, but tell that to guys like Miguel Rojas who are currently providing more value than Arraez.
During the peak of the steroids era the Yankees were the undisputed heavyweights of baseball from 1996-2000. That dynasty is arguably up there with any dynasty in sports.
During that 4 year run only 2 players on the team managed to eclipse 30 or more homeruns: Tino in 96’ with 40+ and Bernie in 2000 with 30 exactly.
Tell me how the hell did they do all that winning if power is so important. Peak steroid era too….everyone had multiple guys hitting 30+ except the Yankees.
Ironically enough I’ve always felt like He’d be a good fit with the Yankees. Just added a comment about it below.
Said it before, said it again, saying it again:
The A’s should sign him to like 6 years/$99M or something. Why not? They need to prove they’re willing to spend, he hits for a high average, he gets a lot of hits, one could kinda argue there’s value in that…
3 years 45 -50 is max anyone would pay him
No way I am paying $15M a year for a down trending Arraez. 90-110 OPS+ who is a defensive net negative is not worth that type of money.
I want him on my Brewers team. Exactly the player they need at 2B. Turang to SS. Arraez, Chourio, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Turang, Mitchell, Durbin/Ortiz. That’s a staunch, frisky lineup. Solid defense. Playoff caliber team.
Idk that I’d be comfortable with him playing 2b consistently. I know he’s not exactly available but if Detroit is willing I feel like Gleyber Torres would be a decent fit for you guys.
As a Yankees fan I love seeing Durbin getting a shot and thriving for you guys though.
I’ve always wondered why the Yankees haven’t shown interest in him. They need/have needed a 1b, they have plenty of power from other spots in the lineup, there’s a short porch at Yankee stadium for him so his lack of power isn’t quite as big of a deal and they can definitely use more guys able to get on base consistently, especially for those times the power bats don’t show up in October. Just seems like a decent fit if you let go of the idea you need 20+ Homeruns from every spot in your lineup.
Does a one year deal with a mutual option count as a multi year deal?
He deserves the skepticism. A single with no one on is similar to a walk. Take say half of his singles with no runners on and convert those to walks. You get a 2025 batting line that looks close to this.
.244/.327/.351
Doesn’t look as impressive does it. Thats similar to Lars Nootbaar last year.
Not everyone can be Juan Soto, dude. Nootbaar is a fine role player and Arraez is too.
Why would they sign Arraez for that roll with someone like Andujar available who is a righty platoon bat, .986 OPS last year vs lefties. Teams likely see him as a lefty masher type platoon bat which is maybe why Cubs were mentioned as interested in him. Busch needs to sit vs lefties.
In the playoffs V LA, he thought he was Soto. Kept trying to jack homers and gifted LA with popups.
Back in the 90’s a guy like this would have had tons of value. Now it’s you can hit .220 and 40 home runs and your value is through the roof. Every team should value a guy that gets on base consistently for the right price in my opinion.
A guy who can hit, and has quality at bats doesn’t have much value? This is what happens when you let actuaries into MLB front offices. These idiots would run Babe Tuth out of the game.
*Ruth
*Tooth
Admittedly! I had no idea he was such a pedestrian defender at 2B. I thought he’d be ac fit in MKE for a 1 or 2 year deal, second year optional. But it was predicated on letting Turang go to short and Ortiz back to 3rd. Durbin is NOT a 3rd Baseman and Joey is GG caliber at any position he plays SS or 3B. Durning is a Utility guy to spell others.
All that said, and looking at his defensive metrics more closely after reading this… Arraez isn’t good enough defensively to play infield in Milwaukee.
“Perhaps, then, Arraez would be best served signing a one-year deal and retesting the market next season.”
“Then” adds nothing to this sentence and just interrupts the syntax, making it choppy. It should be removed.