The Red Sox went big with their first free agent signing of the winter, adding Ranger Suárez for five years and $130MM on Wednesday. That followed trade acquisitions of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, meaning the Sox could enter the season having replaced 60% of their rotation.
Even with Lucas Giolito departing in free agency, the Red Sox have eight to ten viable options. They’ll be anchored at the top end by Garrett Crochet, Suárez and Gray. It’s unlikely that Boston would flip Oviedo within a few months of giving up a reasonably well-regarded outfield prospect (Jhostynxon Garcia) to acquire him. Beyond that, the Sox could dangle any of their starters on the trade market.
Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and Sean McAdam of MassLive each wrote this week that a rotation trade was a possibility. The Sox don’t need to force one unless overwhelmed by an offer. Starting pitching depth can quickly thin, and most of Boston’s back-end arms have minor league options remaining. They can load up the rotation at Triple-A Worcester to prepare for injuries over the course of a 162-game schedule.
On the other hand, dealing a starter could get the Sox their finishing piece in the infield. They lost the bidding for Alex Bregman, leaving them short at least one player on the dirt. Even if they’re comfortable turning the hot corner to Marcelo Mayer, they don’t have a clear answer at second base. They don’t want to take Ceddanne Rafaela out of center field, where he’s one of the best defenders in the sport. Kristian Campbell struggled defensively as a rookie, and it seems the organization prefers him in the outfield. A platoon of David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez is underwhelming for a win-now team in a competitive division.
If the Suárez signing was their one big free agent move in the budget, the Red Sox should find a way to add an infielder on the trade front. The Sox were tied to Ketel Marte before the Diamondbacks pulled him from the market. They’ve been linked to Brendan Donovan, although Ari Alexander of 7 Boston News suggests they’d prefer a right-handed bat and thus may not be as motivated as some other teams on Donovan (e.g. Giants, Mariners).
The Red Sox have been tied to Houston third baseman Isaac Paredes throughout the winter. Astros GM Dana Brown has downplayed the club’s interest in moving an infielder, but that hasn’t stopped teams from calling. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this week that teams continue to engage the Astros to see if they can change their minds on Paredes. Houston has added a pair of potential mid-rotation starters, Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai, but they remain light on controllable starting pitching.
Let’s take a run through the possibilities if chief baseball officer Craig Breslow does move a starter.
If the Sox deal from their rotation, these would be their two most valuable trade chips. Tolle and Early both debuted late in the 2025 season. Early was very good over four abbreviated starts. Tolle struggled over seven appearances, but that’s not going to deter teams from having interest in a 23-year-old who pitched his way to the big leagues within his first full professional season.
Tolle and Early respectively rank as the Sox’s top and third-best prospects at Baseball America. Tolle has bigger stuff, averaging 97 MPH on a heater that plays up even further based on his excellent extension and above-average life at the top of the zone. Early also gets good extension and has fantastic secondary stuff, headlined by a plus changeup. His 94 MPH fastball is closer to average, but he’s a superior strike-thrower to Tolle.
Both pitchers have six years of club control and a trio of minor league options. Teams are loath to part with starters who have this level of talent. It’s unlikely the Sox would trade either pitcher for a player who is a year from free agency. Would they entertain it for a controllable star hitter? McCaffrey and McAdam both floated the possibility of the Sox trying to reengage with Arizona on Marte by dangling one of Tolle or Early alongside an outfielder like Jarren Duran or Rafaela. Even if the Diamondbacks are committed to moving forward with Marte, the general idea is that the Sox would only move one of their most talented starters for an impact bat.
Bello will make $6MM next season and is signed for a total of $50.5MM over the next four years. There’s a club option for 2030 that gives the Sox a fifth season of control. Bello would be locked into the fourth starter role if he’s not traded. The 26-year-old righty has briefly come up in conversations this offseason, albeit with uncertainty about how willing the Sox are to move him.
Last season, Bello ranked second on the team with 166 2/3 innings. He turned in a 3.35 earned run average but didn’t have as favorable reviews from estimators like FIP (4.19) and SIERA (4.55). That’s due to a career-low 17.7% strikeout rate. Bello’s 8.6% swinging strike percentage was also a personal low and ranked in the bottom 25 among all MLB pitchers (min. 100 innings pitched). It’s difficult to maintain mid-rotation results with that level of swing and miss.
Bello has good velocity, averaging 95 MPH on his sinker and four-seam fastball. The sinker is the better of the two offerings, and he leans on it more as a ground-ball pitch than one that gets a lot of whiffs. While Bello has missed more bats in previous seasons, he has always had more of a ground-ball approach. There’s volatility baked into that, and the Sox don’t project to have a great infield defense behind him. Bello is probably closer to a league average arm than the ERA would indicate. That’s still valuable at the remaining $12.625MM average annual value on his contract. Notably, if the Sox chose to move Bello, they’d be trimming what’s currently a $9.166MM luxury hit from their current books (the overall AAV of his extension, which covers the 2024-29 seasons).
Kutter Crawford/Patrick Sandoval
Both pitchers missed the entire 2025 season. Crawford, who is signed for $2.75MM in his second of four arbitration years, began the year on the shelf with right knee discomfort. He injured his right wrist a couple months later and underwent surgery. Crawford had been a swingman for his first couple seasons but stepped into a full-time rotation role in 2024. He pitched well for a few months until a second-half home run spike pushed his ERA to 4.36 across 183 2/3 innings.
Crawford had slightly above-average strikeout and walk marks a couple seasons ago. The home runs and injury history are concerns, but he’s cheaply controllable through 2028 and could be a league average starter if he’s healthy. He also has a pair of minor league options, so there’s a decent amount of roster flexibility for the Sox or any team that acquires him. He’s well behind Tolle, Early and Bello in terms of trade value but would have some appeal if the Sox tried to swap him for a utility infielder or controllable bullpen piece.
The Sox knew that Sandoval was unlikely to pitch much (if at all) in 2025 when they signed him to a two-year, $18.25MM contract early in his rehab from June ’24 Tommy John surgery. They backloaded the deal, paying $5.5MM for his rehab year and a $12.75MM salary for the upcoming season. The 29-year-old Sandoval was a mid-rotation starter over his final three seasons as a member of the Angels. He pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate in nearly 400 innings between 2022-24. His command is fringy but he sits around 94 MPH and has above-average secondaries with his changeup and slider.
Boston may not want to trade Sandoval for a modest return after paying more than $5MM to cover his rehab year. The front office liked him enough to sign him to that deal in the first place. Yet the rotation picture has changed, and Sandoval’s five-plus years of service mean he can’t be sent to the minors. They might be better off trusting Oviedo or Crawford as the fifth starter and getting some of Sandoval’s contract off the books for a utility or bullpen pickup.
Of the players acquired from the Giants in the Rafael Devers trade, Harrison was probably the centerpiece. The deal was mostly about moving on from Devers and shedding his contract. The Sox kept Harrison in Triple-A for much of the ’25 season even as their rotation was being hit by injuries. They finally brought him up in September. Harrison pitched well over his first two outings before getting knocked around in his third. The Sox carried him on their Wild Card Series roster but didn’t use him, opting instead to go with the rookie Early in a must-win Game 3.
Harrison has a decent arm, sitting in the 94-95 MPH range. His secondary stuff and command have been inconsistent, and he owns a 4.39 ERA across 194 2/3 career innings. Harrison is under club control for at least five seasons and has a pair of options remaining. There’d be plenty of teams interested if the Sox shopped him, but his stock has dropped since he was one of the sport’s top pitching prospects a couple seasons ago. Boston is probably better served holding him and hoping for a step forward in his age-24 season.
An offseason Houck trade wouldn’t accomplish much and feels unlikely. He’s coming off a terrible year that culminated in an August Tommy John procedure. He’s expected to miss the ’26 season and would have minimal appeal to another team. Houck agreed to a $4.1MM salary to avoid arbitration and should make the same amount for his final year of club control . They can place him on the 60-day injured list once Spring Training opens.
Would love DD to find a way to pry away Harrison.
Flip Bohm and a prospect or two for one of their controllable pitchers is my hope if Phils sign Bo B.
Paredes and Bryan Abreu for Jarren Duran and Early.
No chance..duran has double the value of parades based on war and early is a top pitching prospect with 5 years control avreau is bullpen arm with limited control and the back end of the sox pen was arguably the best in mlb last year…its gonna take more than that to get early and duran..the mistake people seem to be making is assuming the red sox need to make a move
Need? Eh, depends. I think fans are more inclined start Mayer than the Sox are. They already brought a bunch of guys, adding another proven bat like Paredes works. Duran is too much, but a SP and like Raffaela would be pretty good.
You are mistaken regarding Mayer. The fans are somewhat mixed on him, but the Red Sox organization is extremely committed to him.
Also, zero chance the Red Sox would trade Rafaela for Paredes. They would be better off simply moving Rafaela to the infield over doing that. You’re talking about trading a 25yo with 7 years of cheap control coming off a 3.8 fWAR season for a guy with two years of control coming off a 2.5 fWAR season… Then adding MORE…
Astros would do it, Red Sox won’t.
Funny no
I’d love this for Houston, but no way the Sox do it. Astros would probably give up Paredes and Abreu for either Tolle or Early and a lesser pitcher.
I’m surprised that Arizona would not deal Marte for a package based around Tolle and Rafaela. Seems like a very nice return for a star with Clubhouse problems.
Paredes and Abreu for Tolle and Crawford. Who says no?
@Bobin
Reports are that the Red Sox were unwilling to include Tolle or Early in a Marte deal. Also, there’s no sign the Red Sox are willing to consider trading Rafaela.
If the Red Sox had offered that the deal would have been done as it’s a significant overpay for Marte.
No Tolle or Early in Marte deal means that Marte is not going to Boston.
Being a Cardinals fan and a Red Sox fan both I would like that trade for Brendan Donovan.
In my opinion Tolle is the ONLY pitcher Boston has that would start this conversation. Cardinals also need help in the outfield and with bush being such a spacious picther friendly park Rafaella would fit in there nice.
Now before Red Sox fans come here screaming what a rip off trade that would be for the Red Sox understand that the Cardinals have absolutely no need whatsoever to trade Brendan Donovan, and in fact should probably keep him.
You know these trade rumors sites make it seem like St. Louis is desperate to trade away Donnie when in fact, it should be just the opposite. This guy can do basically everything, gets on base consistently and is a team leader. This is exactly the kind of guy you want around on a rebuilding club.
In fact is absolutely no incentive at all for the Cardinals to trade Donovan or Romero, unless blown away in a trade.
So you have to start there. Also they may get a better return from Seattle or San Fran.
The Red Sox won’t make that trade and Seattle is offering Cijinte and the Giants Wisenhunt.
Paredes and Abreu for Jarren Duran and Crawford.
Doesn’t make sense.
Breslow laughs then hangs up.
cubs and red sox have made some very perplexing and puzzling moves the last 12 months
Wouldn’t be surprised if Boston swings a trade for Mackenzie Gore or gets Arizona to reconsider a trade for Marte.
Dude they need less starters not more.
Personally I think they should now trade for Peralta or Skubal myself and extend either. Then make a deal for the infielder Riley, JRam, Donovan, Peredes, also check in on Tatis Jr., ,or be it FA Bichette, Suarez
So says the baseball guru 😱
I think they’re done shopping first Sp and now need to deal one away for help elsewhere. Doubting Marte.
I don’t think they “need” do deal any sp..they have the luxury of entertaining the idea at thier price
They need to deal some starting pitchers. Sandoval is making a lot and doesnt have a place to play. Harrisons value will go down if he sits in AAA wasting away. A move needs to be made and no they dont have the leverage.
Wrong, they have ALL the leverage.
Four of those gyuys mentioned have virtually zero value in a trade.
Bello, Tolle and Early? Makes little sense to trade them.
They will figure it out.
Trading Sandoval would save money that could be spent on an infielder. That has value. Harrison deserves to be in a rotation and someone would give up something valuable for him.
Crawford and Harrison have varying degrees of value, based on potential and length of control.
Sandoval’s value needs to be shown in ST to maximize. Houck has almost no value atm, I think they should have already traded or released him to save a 40-man roster spot.
Sandoval has value because the Red Sox signed him when he was hurt and already paid him 5 million. So unless hes not progressing like planned he has value, at least enough to get out of what hes still owed.
Houck is fine hes not pitching in 2026 they dont need to move him
I agree on Sandoval, youre right. I was just saying ‘he’ll have much more value once he pitches’.
As far as Houck: Breslow has signed and waited for elbow surgery patients to heal several times hoping for a comeback. And I dont think any of them have worked out yet. So, Im not a fan of the waiting game.
The Red Sox pitching depth allows the Red Sox to move on from Houck. Whomever is released today would be the job saved by Houck not being on the roster and that has value too.
I see Houck as a useful future bullpen piece and I don’t think they would get anything back of value for him.
I actually like all of those four guys but I don’t think they’d get much back in a trade right now for any of them.
Sandoval could give the Red Sox salary relief. Harrison has value someone would plug him right into their rotation.
“Breslow has signed and waited for elbow surgery patients to heal several times hoping for a comeback. And I dont think any of them have worked out yet.”
I think most people would agree Giolito pitched pretty well last year, no?
True about Giolito. I wasnt thinking of him, because he wasnt already injured when signed. But its a fair point.
Imai now listed as “potential mid rotation”.
I guess the hype is finally starting to wane.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the sox stand pat..as is they are a playoff team imo ..they can slot mayer in at 3b and use a combo of romy, rafaela , Hamilton at 2b keep the outfield and pitching depth..no need to overpay for someone else’s players as Boston doesnt have to do anything
If dealing Tolle or Early as the key headliner was sticking point in Marte talks, that opens the door wide open despite AZ having got tired of underwhelming past offers around the league/so called pulling him.
They may agree to both do it quietly to see if a deal lines up.
I think at this point money is the problem they are racing toward the 3rd tax threshold as a 2 time offender they cant be comfy with that based on recent spending history
Yeah they won’t be adding another bat in FA. Bello and Duran contracts lineup with Martes salary so it’s a net neutral deal for both teams. Adding one of the young pitchers may be able to bring Marte back to the table. That 3rd threshold/3 consecutive years is no joke
What do other team fans think Paredes is worth? I think he’s worth a good package of prospects, Early, Harrison+, I have no interest in Kutter Crawford if I’m the Astros, he’s a back of rotation starter at best.
Sox fan – I don’t think they’d give up Early for Paredes. Early/Tolle are only moving for a Marte-level bat. Maybe Bello for Paredes would make sense, but that depends on the extent to which Houston thinks Bello’s performance this year is sustainable (I don’t think it is).
Bello for Paredes makes even less sense.
Red Sox may be willing to deal Bello or Harrison for Paredes, but Early/Tolle are way way more valuable.
Paredes would be a nice piece to add, but he is slow and has a slow bat with poor exit velocities (teams care about this stuff). With only two years of control left – he’s not getting a return like you’re hoping.
On a side note: it’s hard to tell what’s going on with his arm. A 26yo shouldn’t have that much of a velocity drop in just a couple of years. Not sure if any teams still view him as a full time 3rd base option (should be fine at 2b though).
Had a hard time valuing him as well. He has value, just might not be under-25 yo-potential-frontline-SP-with-all-their-options-remaining-prospects + more.
Astros71 – I think Paredes is worth more to Houston AND Boston than he is to most teams because he’s such a drastic pull hitter.
I don’t think he’s worth either a Tolle or Early however, though he’s worth more than a Bello. Frankly, this sounds like a 3-way trade scenario, where the Red Sox ship off Bello and change to another team desperate for pitching and that team sends Astros something they need.
What do you think is the Astro’s biggest need?
This is also very true. Houston and Boston short LFs play into his severe pull swing.
I think that Bello is worth more than Early/Tolle but I don’t know the Red Sox as well.
The Astros don’t have a particularly big need but if I’m going to say the answer is starting pitching/left handed bat. However, left handed bat isn’t a reality until Sanchez leaves and starting pitching is you can never have too much pitching.
To quote Family Guy… “A boat is just a boat… but a mystery box could be anything… even a boat!”
AA dial em up
Bummer (+ a lil cash) and Nacho
for
Harrison and Hamilton
Hell, just do Bummer + cash for Harrison
As a Red Sox fan, I’d take that deal. Nacho doesn’t seem to have big tools, but love the plate discipline and contact skills. Bummer would fill a short term hole (could also just move Harrison to the bullpen, but that wouldn’t help the infield).
That said, I think the team would be looking for a more established infielder. Also, Nacho reminds me a bit of Meidroth (now on the White Sox) – the Red Sox seemed to have zero interest in his future prior to trading him.
Gray and Suarez are good pitchers. But why trade for Oviedo? I dont understand that move.
The Red Sox clearly have too much pitching. And yes you can have too much pitching. Guys have to have a place to play if they dont they dont provide the value that they should.
They believe oviedo has top of rotation upside
So does Kyle Harrison. And hes cheaper and they already had him. You cant start them all. They really need to make a trade.
They found value in the extent of his extension. The pitching lab forced their hand because they think they can turn him into something special.
The Sox have a ton of pitching depth. They focused a ton on developing the pitching pipeline. The moves for Gray and Oviedo were fine, but now that they signed Suarez they could have used their resource better given the huge hole in the lineup at 2B (or 3B, or SS, they have Mayer and Story and need a third.
Don’t forget about Crawford and Sandoval this year as well. They also protected some guys from the rule 5 draft (Drohan, Uberstine, Sandlin) who are all SP.
They have the depth. They can trade 3 or 4 of their SP pieces and still have a good amount of depth.
Oviedo is going to dominate. That is why. MLB Network did a story on him and exactly why the Sox wanted him… he is going to be phenomenal. He pitched against the Red Sox last year and I believe struck out 10.
We will certainly find out if the pitching lab is correct and all that they are cracked up to be. He is a perfect candidate for showing that they’ve found a secret sauce. Tolle was throwing 92mph only a year and a half ago but had elite extension. Now he sits at 98mph and can throw 100+ when he wants it. A YEAR AND A HALF! They take an already decent young pitcher and apply the same approach and we might see an ace come out the gate. Or… you know… he could just continue to be a #4-5 guy. I am super interested in his development.
Cards fan here. Oviedo’s stuff is filthy. In fact, he would probably still be in St. Louis if not for the fact that organization has been run by completely incompetent fools for years.
Now Oviedo may be one of those guys that has great stuff, but never quite makes it. MLB’s past is littered with guys like this.
If he ever figures it out, though look out because his stuff moves big time.
I wouldn’t trade Tolle or Early – per the podcast this week, I wonder if Sox and Cubs could match up around some sort of Bello for Hoerner or Shaw type framework. Gives Cubs a bit more certainty in the rotation and Sox get their infield solve.
Lol! Not going to happen. socks fans, obviously put Bello up in a tier that the rest of the baseball does not.
Don’t get me wrong he’s not a bad arm, but probably doesn’t have the value you think he does.
Typical fan base response. Give me a good player that fits. My teams needs perfectly and in return we will give you scrap pieces that we don’t need. I.e. we want a star player, but we are not willing to pay anything for him.
No offense almost socks fan too. Every fan based does this and you just know what you’re gonna see when you come to this site.
We want your star player, but will not be giving up anything in value for it.
Red Sox need to open a 40 man roster spot to sign Suárez, so it’s going to be two from the 40 man roster to the Astros for 3B Paredes. Which two remains to be seen but I think it’s something like SP Sandlin & 2B Hamilton plus a prospect.
I like a Suárez signing, but I think a Paredes trade on top of that is unlikely. They basically replicate one another and would create an even bigger roster logjam than they already have.
Why do we need Hamilton. We have Matthews and he’s starting in the minors (likely). Sandlin and the prospect is nice and all but I think it’s taking more because Hamilton has no value.
I would love an Early/Tolle for Paredes swap, although that’s unlikely. However, getting Harrison as a headliner would be nice as well.
I don’t know that Paredes is worth Early/Tolle, but I agree with you that I’d rather never see David Hamilton again. Harrison for Paredes I would do in a heartbeat.
Add some prospects to the deal to get me. I didn’t get enough sleep. Harrison and prospects, with Harrison as the main piece you are getting.
I wonder if you could flip Harrison to the Reds for Matt McLain. He’s not coming off a great year but he has pretty high upside and would be an upgrade over the options the Sox have at second.
This is creative..assuming mclean is not damaged goods
Red Sox wouldn’t do it.
The Reds need bats, not pitching. And they just traded away Gavin Lux, so they’re now committed to keeping McLain.
We have 3 bats available. Sanchez, Paredes, or Walker. Let’s start advertising.
Paredes- A 2 time all star that has power and can hit a lot of homers.
Walker-An old first basemen with excelling defense and bounced back in the second half, proving it was just an oblique injury.
Sanchez-A good left handed bat that made 7 errors. He can rob homers and is looking for a bounce back, don’t worry, he’s only normal price.
Could see Cronenworth and a bullpen arm from the padres for some help in the rotation.
I’d forget Marte, Arizona already closed that door, but Paredes is right there and the Astros definitely still have a need at SP and OF. They are totally a match.
Breslow is on the phone with Bloom as we speak
Not a good match. The Red Sox need right handed bats and thats not what the Cardinals have. Arenado made sense but he was dealt already.
Arenado and his 87 OPS+ did not make sense for the Sox to trade for.
He plays good defense and his swing would have benefited from Fenway. And considering the Diamondbacks are barely paying him anything I think the Red Sox missed out.
I was just joking as they seem to trade with each other so often
Breslow has been very particular about the players he has brought in. He’s not going to bring in a left-handed hitting 2B. He’ll more likely get one of the big two (Hoerner or Marte). The Suarez deal freed up at least one pitcher to be moved.
Donovan is actually available. Hoerner and Marte are not.
Paredes is who makes sense.
king of cards
Hoerner and Marte are not available? I disagree.
Chicago has to do something about their logjam in the IF and if they dont plan on extending Marte, they would certainly move him. So a Marte (plus another) for Bello would improve the Cubs for four years. instead of a compensation pick when he walks.
I dont believe Arizona will keep Marte. I dont think Hazen is a Marte fan. And in April, Marte becomes locked as a DBack due to 5/10 rules. I expect something to happen before then. Regardless of what he has said to the press.
Dodgers proved that you need two sets of rotations to win so best to hold onto them.
Sox should trade with Milwaukee for Peralta or for Skubal and ink an extention, before they sign a Bichette, or Suarez, Donovan, Marte. Also check in on SD Tatis Jr., and JRam & Austin Riley.
keep the pitching. you never have enough, especially when starters don’t consistently go 7-8 innings. having 3 or 4 guys that can go 3+ from the pen is good for the team.
sign a couple of infield vets to minor league deals (Iglesias?) or find a team looking to move an overpaid guy who needs a lh dh…
Revisting with Mike the potential of Duran/Early/Harrison/Mikey Romero to Arizona for Marte and LH reliever Saalfrank.
A trade with the Astros makes a ton of sense. The Astros need lefty bats and outfielders. The Red Sox need Paredes. I think there is a trade to be made here. Someone like Abreu the outfielder makes a lot of sense for Houston.
I still the plan all along is if they didn’t keep Bregman they were going to turn to Mayer.
Crawford won’t have any value until he proves he is healthy. Even then he is going to get you a Muncy type of veteran. Older and solid but you aren’t getting anything big for him.
Bello is solid with room to grow and has a good contract.
If were the Red Sox GM
1) Take a shot at trying to get Ramirez from the Guardians. He is 33 but looks to still have some tread on the tire. Package something with a base of Early or Tolle, Harrison and Mayer. This depends on how the Guardians view their team and you would have to get Ramirez to waive his no trade.
Ramirez would be the perfect fit for the lineup and his contract.
2) Take a shot at with the Cubs and go with a package of Mayer and Harrison for Matt Shaw. The Cubs, most likely, are going to want a pitcher that is major league ready because their rotation doesn’t have a lot of depth. Mayer gives is a young player, good defense and can play all around the diamond.
3) Suarez is out there, but he is almost a modern day Butch Hobson. You would be grabbing him for a big, RH power bat. The defense on the left side will be an adventure between he and Story. The Sox would also have to accept going over the luxury tax. Mayer would end up becoming you reserve and defensive replacement at SS and 3B until Story is gone.
Ramirez has a NTC, I don’t see why Mayer and Harrison makes sense. Red Sox are almost out of money
On the hitting side, two or three players are going to come out blazing hot and two or three players are going to come out stinking it up. Problem is you don’t know who they are. I think the lineup needs another right handed bat but I am not convinved yet. Last year was a patchwork and there are some small changes. Even with Bregman gone the lineup could still be better than last year.