This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.
While the rebuilding Padres still owe a ton of money to high-priced veterans Matt Kemp and James Shields, who were traded away last season, the players on the current team will make approximately $30MM in 2017. That’s less than the salary of Clayton Kershaw, who they’ll face off against on Opening Day and likely several more times during the season. It’s no surprise that they’re the favorite to land the No. 1 pick in the 2018 Amateur Draft, but that’s all part of the plan.
Major League Signings
- Trevor Cahill, SP: One year, $1.75MM
- Jhoulys Chacin, SP: One year, $1.75MM
- Clayton Richard, SP One year, $1.75MM (re-signed)
- Jered Weaver, SP: One year, $3MM
- Total spend: $8.25MM
Notable Minor League Signings
Trades And Claims
- Traded C Derek Norris to Nationals for P Pedro Avila
- Claimed P Tyrell Jenkins from Reds
- Claimed P Zach Lee from Mariners
- Lost RP Leonel Campos off waivers to Blue Jays
Rule 5 Draft
- Selected INF Allen Cordoba from Cardinals
- Selected P Justin Haley from Red Sox; traded to Brewers
- Acquired C Luis Torrens from Reds via Yankees
- Acquired RHP Miguel Diaz from Twins via Brewers
Extensions
- 1B Wil Myers: Six years, $83MM, plus $20MM club option in 2023 ($1MM buyout)
- 2B/3B Yangervis Solarte: Two years, $7.5MM, plus $5.5MM club option in 2019 ($750K buyout) and $8MM club option in 2020 ($750K buyout)
Notable Losses
- Alexi Amarista, Jon Jay, Derek Norris, Adam Rosales, Tyson Ross, Carlos Villanueva
Needs Addressed
Despite having one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres are light on pitching prospects who are ready to contribute at the Major League level in 2017. With a talented (if largely unproven) core of young position players, led by first baseman Wil Myers, and a strong bullpen, the top priority of this offseason was to fill out the starting rotation with inexpensive veterans who can eat innings and possibly pitch well enough to draw trade interest.
At a cost of just over $8MM, they were able to fill four rotation spots for the upcoming season by signing free agents Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver to one-year deals. This rotation won’t make them a contender or even a .500 team. But each has experienced a good level of Major League success and should be able to keep games from getting out of hand on a consistent basis. At least that’s what the Padres are hoping for.
Cahill was once on his way to being one of the better young pitchers in baseball—he finished 9th in the AL Cy Young race in 2010—but his career quickly went south. He bounced back in 2016 with a terrific season out of the ‘pen for the World Champion Cubs and now the Padres are giving the 29-year-old a chance to prove he can maintain that success while returning to a starting role. Chacin, also 29 years old and a once-promising pitching star for the Rockies, is trying to resurrect his career with a return to the NL West. He had a strong finish to the 2016 season (0.75 ERA over last four starts) and has a strong track record against the Padres’ division opponents. Richard signed with the Padres late last season after being released by the Cubs and impressed with a 2.52 ERA over 53.2 innings. He has not started more than nine games in a season since 2013, the last year of a four-season stint with the Padres. In Weaver, the Padres brought in a former ace who is trying to succeed with a low-80’s fastball.
Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 success story in 2016, will be the No. 5 starter, although he’ll likely have an innings limit after logging less than 150 innings as a rookie. Former prospects Jarred Cosart, Tyrell Jenkins and Zach Lee could also work their way into the mix at some point, as will rookies Dinelson Lamet and Walker Lockett. The Padres’ pair of elite pitching prospects, Anderson Espinoza and Cal Quantril, are likely slated for High-A and won’t reach San Diego anytime soon.
The team’s highly suspect rotation will likely be one of, if not the worst, in baseball. But when they do hand a lead over to the bullpen, as rare as that might be, the Padres should be able to hold on for the win on most occasions. If Carter Capps can return to his pre-injury form—he had a 1.16 ERA, 2.0 BB/9 and 16.8 K/9 in 31 innings in 2015 before an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery—the Padres could have themselves quite an effective group of late-inning arms. Along with Capps, who is expected to start the season on the DL, closer Brandon Maurer and lefty setup men Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand will all be highly-coveted by playoff contenders and could prove to be valuable trade chips in July. Veteran Craig Stammen, signed to a Minor League contract in the offseason, could also end up attracting trade interest if his spring performance (11.2 IP, ER, 12 K) is any indication of a return to form.
While the Padres are mostly sticking with their young position players, they did make one notable offseason addition in veteran Erick Aybar, who came to camp on a Minor League deal and ended up beating out Luis Sardiñas for the starting shortstop job. He’ll be yet another one-year stop-gap—Clint Barmes and Alexei Ramirez were the team’s Opening Day shortstops in 2015 and 2016, respectively—as Preller continues his search for the team’s shortstop of the future.
Aybar’s double-play partner will be Yangervis Solarte, who is shifting over from third base, while Ryan Schimpf (.533 slugging percentage in 330 MLB plate appearances) and former 1st Round draft pick Cory Spangenberg are competing for time at the hot corner. Top prospects and NL Rookie of the Year candidates Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, who each had late-season MLB auditions in 2016, are expected to step into regular roles in the Padres’ outfield with Jabari Blash, Alex Dickerson—once he returns from the disabled list—and Travis Jankowski each getting plenty of opportunities to prove that they should be a part of the team’s future.
Behind the plate, Padres fans will finally get to see Austin Hedges, one of the most highly-touted defensive catching prospects in recent memory, on a regular basis. After spending 2015 as Derek Norris‘ backup and most of last season in the minors, he’ll get the bulk of playing time in 2017 with Norris out of the picture, Christian Bethancourt splitting time between the bench and the bullpen, and 20-year-old Rule 5 draftee Luis Torrens expected to mostly watch and learn, having never played a game above Low-A ball.
More analysis after the break …
Questions Remaining
There’s not much sense breaking down the problems on the roster from the perspective of competitiveness in 2017. Clearly, that’s not the organization’s priority at the moment. The upcoming season, rather, will represent a chance to continue adding talent, drive the development of young players at the MLB level, and continue gathering information to inform the team’s long-term plans.
The Padres won’t know how close they are to contending until the 2017 season is winding down and they can assess how much progress their young roster has made. By September, they should have a better idea of which players they want to commit to — or even sign to long-term contracts. Margot and Renfroe have that potential, as does Hedges, if he can provide some power to go along with elite defense. Perdomo could also work his way into the conversation if he can build off of last year’s success.
While Capps and Maurer are only 26 years old and could also be candidates for long-term deals, late-inning relievers have more value on a playoff-contending team. They’ll be among the players drawing attention from opposing scouts. Trade rumors will surround this team from the onset of the season. If their veteran pitchers are performing well—keep in mind that the Braves traded Chacin to the Angels after five mostly very good starts in 2016—Preller won’t hesitate to make a deal.
[Related — San Diego Padres Depth Chart]
Deal Of Note
The Padres signed Myers, their “face of the franchise” first baseman, to a six-year contract extension in January. Including a club option in 2023, the 26-year-old, who finished two homers and two stolen bases shy of a 30-30 season in 2016, is now under team control through his age-32 season. He’s guaranteed $83MM with a chance to make $102MM.
Myers has embraced his leadership role and completely bought in to what the team is doing.
“The vision that (the Padres) have is something that I’m definitely behind,” Myers said at a press conference to announce his new contract. “It’s something that I really feel is something special here in San Diego. The position players that we have right now are really good. People don’t know about them. They’re not household names yet, but they’re very talented and will be very good players at the big league level.”
Signing Myers to an extension—and not trading him before he developed into a star—is an indication that ownership is committed to a realistic plan that could put them in position to be competitive sometime around 2019 and beyond. In addition to giving Myers the largest contract in team history, they’ve also invested heavily on amateur signings in recent years, while Preller has continued to stockpile high-upside talent in trades.
Overview
A Padres team that hasn’t played a meaningful game in years still drew close to 30,000 fans per game in 2016. Those fans aren’t likely to watch their team play a meaningful game in 2017, either. They will, however, get to watch what could end up being one of the best group of young Padres position players since Roberto Alomar and Benito Santiago were in the same lineup as Tony Gwynn in the late 80’s.
What’s your take on the Padres’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)
How would you grade the Padres' winter?
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B 34% (391)
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C 26% (304)
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D 15% (171)
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A 14% (166)
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F 11% (129)
Total votes: 1,161
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Gave them a B.
They got a decent piece for Norris
Plus between stammen, capps, weaver, chacin, richard, cahill etc you could see a lot of trades come july and itll be interesting to see what they get come then.
They might lose 110 games, but then again, that might be the goal.
C, but only because they didn’t capitalize on some of the bullpen value they could have traded.
Nobody wants to trade with them anymore after all the underhanded stuff the gym did like hiding medicals
Gm not gym
If the deal is there, it will be made.
Because of last years transgressions, the Padres are the best team to make deals with. MLB will be keeping such close tabs on their medical reporting, any team should feel confident that what they see in the reports is 100% accurate. One more shady deal and Preller would be in a lot of trouble.
They might make desks with Preller but he will pay extra which is not good.
NO HE WILL NOT!!!!!!!!!!!! If Preller makes a fair offer and no one else makes a better offer other teams will take that trade 100% of the time. Oh my God! I can’t believe you would suggest that! What a dumb bunny HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
P.S. LOL @ “make desks with Preller”
Yes they do you idiot!
What a bizarre starting rotation… 4 vets on 1-year deals under $3M
Playing to lose for a #1 pick is stupid in baseball. Padres fans should be outraged.
why? same model the astros and cubs took. tearing it down and rebuilding it is the only way for sustainable success. give it time, the model works
Yeah this is what has to happen if the team wants to be a future contender. It’s going to take a few years in order for them to turn things around, so they might as well use this year to see where they stand and continue to build up for the future.
I thought that was a bit of an exaggeration. While the Padres pencil in finishing at the bottom in the NLW, they still have their strengths and probably won’t be the worst team in baseball. Not that a #1 pick is so much more valuable than say a #5 or even a #10 pick, and a team can’t count on building a roster around one prospect anyway.
You’re dreams by if you believe that , take for example kris Bryant’s draft and tell me the guys picked at 4-10 were equal to him at 3
You made the argument? Bryant at #3 was better than #1.
Kris Bryant was drafted second overall in 2013. The third pick was Jon Gray to the rox.
the number one pick is a lot more valuable than the 5 and especially 10
This upcoming draft is considered to have pretty good quality depth in it, much more so than the last few drafts – especially if some of the top high school guys enter. The Padres, after years of drafting terribly – mostly because they were cheap – are getting better under Preller. Quantrill was a potential 1-1 pick before he had his TJ, and all reports are that he looks terrific and could move quickly, for example.
It still would have been sweet if Groome would have fallen to them like reported last June on draft night. Even though the Padres added a lot of talent in the draft the way they shuffled money around, having Espinoza, Quantrill, Morejon and Groome in the same farm system would have been a dream.
Groome was never going to last until #24. They were wasting their time setting up that deal with him.
Yes, the quality of the selection varies quite a bit every year, but one thing that is proven year after year is teams that do well in the drafts, pick well deep into the rounds. Scouting is the key here, an area where teams that are cutting corners often skimp.
I agree, their scouting is going to be playing a key role over the next few years. Especially taking into account the heavy investment they made in the international signing period last year. If Preller is as good as they said he was in finding international talent, it could pay dividends for them later on.
They love tanking the nitwit fans that is.
I would feel better about the “tanking” strategy if baseball was more like the NBA or NFL. It’s just much more of a crapshoot in baseball. Hell, Mike Trout was the 25th pick in 2009, a year when the Padres drafted third overall and picked the useless Donovan Tate. But they seem to have found good fortune in last year’s top pick, Quantrill. And they seem to have done well on the international FA market although we won’t really know for many years.
davidcoonce is dead on right. draft picks in baseball are WAY overrated. yeah, kris bryant was a big hit for the cubs. but if he was a sure thing, why did houston take mark appel before him? in that same 2013 first round, only tim anderson and sean manena contributed to his team other than bryant. and all the crying about giving up compensation picks for signing a free agent? not a big loss in 2013 draft. all those picks have done squat although the free agents didn’t help anyone either. the last #1 pick who has really done well is carlos correra of houston and that was in 2011. so “tanking” for the #1 really isn’t that big a deal. every now and then consensus can’t miss prospect like ARod or Junior comes along. But that’s rare—like a Magic Johnson in basketball or John Elway in football.
The Padres rebuild begins! How will Andy Green handle the pressure of a pitiful pitching staff? Can Wil Myers live up to his big contract extension? Will Jered Weaver still have a job by the All-Star Break?
Join us Monday for the season premier of The Quest for the First Pick.
Probably as good a time as any to establish the fact that Preller can trade with whoever he wants. All contenders have needs and if the Padres have a player that can fill a need for a contender and they can’t get better value elsewhere they will make that trade 100% of the time.
True except for the fact that he cheated teams at the deadline and got suspended , now other gms do t like him and will go elsewhere for their needs
I highly doubt if a team covets a Padres player Preller won’t be an obstacle. Maybe they’re going to examine the medicals a little more closely, sure, but it’s highly unlikely Preller pulls that kind of trick again, as it would probably mean a year-long suspension for him and he would probably lose his job. All GMs want to get the upper hand in negotiations, some do sneaky-but-not-illegal stuff, some probably do illegal stuff but don’t get caught. Preller got caught. But he’ll still be trading like normal this season.
I would rather deal with other teams why chance getting burned
Because you won’t get burned. MLB has their eye on Preller and if he tries anything cute he will never have a job in MLB again. Not even cleaning the toilets.
They should have been examining the medicals a little more closely in the first place, regardless of who they were trading with.
NO THEY WILL NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! No team will ever trade for an inferior player or trade more/better prospects for a player who isn’t really an improvement just to avoid having to deal with Preller.
I understand the idea that the Padres have all these pitchers on one-year deals in the hopes they’ll pitch well enough to trade, but and I’m not being facetious here, but if those guys all pitch well, the Padres might be decent, and then why would you trade them? And if you did trade them all, who would pitch? The Padres don’t even have ten starting pitchers on their 40-man roster. It’s not like they’re going to call up their collection of 17-year old prospects. So it’s a somewhat odd strategy
I’m not being facetious but they’ll be lucky if any of their opening week starters are still pitching after the all star break.
THEY WILL RISE AGAIN
I think Wil Meyers will blossom into a star and San Diego will become relevant again in the next 5 years
We said same thing about Melvin Upton and his spiraling cost Frank Wren his job. Myers turns out to be bust Preller is gone for sure
The biggest con job in sports with AJ/owners. “It will be five years before you know if my strategy worked.” Just like AJ Smith…he thinks he is the smartest guy in the room. AJ – another jackass GM in SD. Chargers move…Padres are all we have. America’s Finest City and the worst sports scene. Next we get 30,000 seat soccer stadium and land grab by the Mayor’s land developers buddies. AYFK! Thank God for DIRECTV!
While I agree with you on the whole soccer stadium idea being pretty ridiculous, I think we need to give Preller a little more time to see how he handles this rebuild. project before we go comparing him to that clown of GM that used to run the former football team.
The gulls
Hes already made several deals this off season LOL.
He traded Norris to the nats, traded van mater to the reds for torrens, and picked up diaz and traded haley. Literally tells you this in the off season review above. Already traded with 4 different teams this off season.
So there goes the whole “people wont trade with the padres” myth. 4 teams already have this season.
Perdomo isnt being traded, and if richard cahill chacin and weaver are traded cosart moves back into the rotation with lamet kelly lockett all waiting in triple A.
If theyre picthing well and padres are decent you should still trad them. Theyre not a world series contender even if the players are out performing expectations. Sell high on all the pitchers and give the young guys 2nd half of the season to show their merit.
I think it’s fair to say that Weaver will be lucky to still have a job by the All-Star break, much less end up being traded to a team that actually wants him.
I give them a B. First they embrace the rebuild and obtained rentals to possibly flip and second are giving plenty of young players a chance to show what they have. #1 pick would be a win to me.
In two days time, The Quest for the First Pick begins…