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2016-17 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Tigers appeared headed for a significant sell-off following GM Al Avila’s ominous comments about paring back payroll and staying within the team’s means, but the Tigers instead had a fairly quiet offseason.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

“We want to run the organization without having to go over our means. We want to stay competitive, but at the same time, this organization has been working way above its means for some time.”

Those were the words spoken by Tigers GM Al Avila on Oct. 18, and they understandably led to a perception that the Tigers, long a powerhouse in the American League Central, were set to begin shopping several members of their aging core throughout the offseason. The trade of Cameron Maybin on the very first day of the offseason, which shed $9MM and added a power arm to the Detroit farm system, did little to dispel that notion. Detroit appeared to be embarking on a sale.

Over the next several months, names such as J.D. Martinez, Francisco Rodriguez, Justin Wilson, Jose Iglesias and Ian Kinsler were bandied about the rumor mill. Even cornerstones Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, each of whom has full veto power over potential trades, found themselves as the subject of rumors. The Astros were linked to Cabrera at one point, while the Dodgers were tossed out as a potential destination for Verlander (and for Kinsler as well). Somewhat surprisingly, however, the Maybin trade proved to be Detroit’s only notable subtraction of the offseason.

Later in the offseason, Avila stressed that there was never any mandate from ownership that he shed payroll. That seemingly held true even as the torch was passed from long-time owner Mike Ilitch to his son, Christopher, after the former’s death in February at 87 years of age. While there may be some differences moving forward — the elder Ilitch had often dipped into his pockets to acquire and keep top stars — there also wasn’t to be a sudden change of direction. Rather, as Avila explained, the Tigers were only looking to make good baseball trades.

Despite the prior comments and despite the fact that many of the team’s best players are entering their mid-30s, the Tigers understandably still felt there was an opportunity to compete in the AL Central after finishing the 2016 season with 86 wins. After all, with better health from Jordan Zimmermann, a full season of Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer and improved performance from Justin Upton (who had a monster second half), it’s hardly unreasonable to expect a better record.

Detroit, though, was also conscious of adding to its payroll. Ever cognizant of the long-term commitments that are piling up for aging stars — Detroit already has $83MM guaranteed to Cabrera, Verlander and Zimmermann as far down the line as 2019 — the Tigers eschewed any long-term commitments. A reunion with Alex Avila, who is serving as the backup to young James McCann, proved to be the only Major League free-agent signing. Similarly, Detroit opted not to add any proven players on the trade market, instead rolling the dice on a minor deal to pick up former first-round pick Mikie Mahtook from the Rays.

All of that, though, is not to say that there aren’t players the Tigers would like to have moved. Detroit did its best to shop Mike Pelfrey, Mark Lowe and Anibal Sanchez throughout the offseason. Each veteran carried a significant salary in the final year of his contract, with Pelfrey set to earn $8MM, Lowe earning $5.5MM and Sanchez owed a staggering $21MM (including the buyout of his 2018 option). Unsurprisingly, Avila and his staff found no takers for that trio of underperforming right-handers. Rather than block younger arms with three overpaid vets, the Tigers bit the bullet and absorbed the salary of Pelfrey and Lowe by releasing them in Spring Training.

Questions Remaining

The primary question remaining for the Tigers, now, is if they’ll instead look to sell at the non-waiver trade deadline this year. That decision will be driven by the performance of the club, and the team is off to a solid start thus far with an 11-10 record. Due to the aforementioned veto power over trades, it never seemed likely that Detroit would part with either Verlander or Cabrera. However, the prospect of trading players such as J.D. Martinez, Kinsler, Rodriguez and Justin Wilson was very real and will be once again this summer if the team is under .500.

In fact, even if the Tigers are on the periphery of the Wild Card picture, it’s still possible that they’ll move some pieces. In recent years, teams have been increasingly willing to move impending free agents at the deadline if they may not be worthy of a qualifying offer (e.g. Mark Melancon being traded to the Nationals in 2016). While J.D. Martinez certainly seems likely to merit a qualifying offer if he is able to return to form once activated from a foot injury, Rodriguez definitively will not be. If K-Rod is throwing well, the Tigers could look to move him regardless of their position in the standings, assuming they’re able to fetch a reasonable young piece in return. I’d imagine that the same is true of Justin Wilson, despite the fact that he’s controllable through 2018. While Wilson is arguably the best reliever in the Detroit ’pen, hanging onto him in pursuit of a one-game playoff rather than capitalizing on a potentially significant deadline return doesn’t seem prudent.

Looking at the larger picture, the Tigers face significant long-term questions in the outfield. The team is hopeful that JaCoby Jones can fill a long-term role in the outfield, but Jones is new to the outfield and has a .544 OPS through the first few weeks of the season. The acquisition of Mikie Mahtook was intended to give the club another option there, but he’s not hitting any better. Anthony Gose was once viewed as the center fielder of the future in Detroit, but he’s been outrighted off the 40-man roster and is now once again pitching in the minors.

The situation is no better in the corners. Steven Moya, whom the club once hoped would be its long-term right fielder, was also outrighted this winter. J.D. Martinez is a free agent following the season, and it’s also possible that Upton, who is hitting .265/.344/.560 with 27 homers over his past 381 plate appearances dating back to July 1, will opt out at season’s end. While that may actually be a good thing for Detroit’s long-term payroll ledger, it would also further cast doubt as to who will be patrolling the outfield at Comerica Park in 2018 and beyond. At present, Tyler Collins is the only controllable outfielder producing in 2017, though his track record is limited.

There are fair concerns, too, about the pitching. Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd are getting chances to join Michael Fulmer as 2015 deadline acquisitions-turned-rotation stalwarts. But neither has approached Fulmer in accomplishment to this point. Meanwhile, the high-priced Jordan Zimmermann is hoping to prove that his 2016 was an aberration and join Verlander to form a quality 1-2 veteran punch. But the results have not been promising early.

The bullpen (other than Justin and Alex Wilson) has perhaps been even more concerning than expected to this point. Rodriguez was shaky, though largely still effective, in 2016, but he has been quite hittable thus far. And the club could well continue to struggle to find good innings from other setup options — including Shane Green, who hasallowed seven waks against seven strikeouts in his first seven innings. While fireballers Bruce Rondon and Joe Jimenez have at times seemed like closers of the future, neither has succeeded early their careers (though there’s plenty of time to turn it around, at least in the case of Jimenez).

 

Deal of Note

The trade of Maybin on Nov. 3 looked to be the first of many notable moves for the Tigers this winter, but they instead largely stood pat from that point forth. While Avila’s comments that there was no mandate to pare down the payroll are no doubt true, it certainly seems as though there was also plenty of trepidation about adding to the payroll. When the club was searching for center fielders prior to acquiring Mahtook, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers were only looking to spend about $2MM. The center field addition they did make (Mahtook) was earning considerably less, as he’s not yet eligible for arbitration.

Dealing Maybin did bring the club a reasonably useful prospect — MLB.com ranks Alcantara 25th among Tigers farmhands — but looking back on the offseason as a whole, the Tigers aren’t any better overall for the deal. Detroit’s Opening Day payroll is roughly identical to last year’s mark, and the team returned effectively the same core but with a weaker outfield mix. I’ll fully admit that this observation is made with the benefit of hindsight, and it has to be noted that the Tigers couldn’t have known in early November that they wouldn’t get the offers they sought for seemingly marketable assets like Kinsler, Martinez and Wilson.

However, the Tigers had to be cognizant of the fact that their asking prices were a long shot to be met by mid-December, and yet the team still elected not to make even marginal investments to enhance the 2017 roster. Ben Revere (Dec. 23) and Colby Rasmus (Jan. 30) both signed late in the offseason for $5MM guaranteed or less, for instance, and either would’ve served as a likely upgrade to the internal center field options the Tigers took to Spring Training (even with Rasmus recovering from offseason surgery).

Overall, the loss of Maybin isn’t likely to make or break the team’s playoff hopes in 2017, but weakening the team on the first day of the offseason and then doing little to further stock the farm system, shed payroll or bolster the 2017 roster seems counterproductive.

Overview

The expectations of a fire sale proved to be misplaced, but the Tigers’ lack of virtually any winter activity in either direction is still a bit puzzling. It was commonplace to suggest that the Tigers entered the offseason at a crossroads, but rather than deciding which way to turn, the team effectively stood still — with nearly $200MM in MLB salary still on the Opening Day books.

Now, the Tigers find themselves a somewhat uncomfortable position. Detroit unquestionably has the talent to win in 2017, but there are larger questions looming beyond the current campaign. Though there’s a desire to trim payroll, the majority of the club’s most expensive assets are close to immovable either due to no-trade clauses, opt-out provisions or underperformance. However, the team may also be reluctant to look to replenish a thin farm system by moving its more appealing assets in the midst of a season that could yield a playoff berth.

Avila and his staff will have to walk that fine line this summer as they seek to balance current postseason odds with the chances of beginning to rebuild a sustainable core that can once again help them to reach October baseball on a near-annual basis. It’d be an easier call if the Tigers were either running away with the division or sitting near the cellar, but given the strength of the Indians and the relative weakness of the Royals, Twins and White Sox, that seems unlikely. More probable is the fact that the Tigers will be jostling for position with the Indians and firmly in the Wild Card mix, which will force the front office into some difficult decisions.

Let’s see how MLBTR readers grade Detroit’s offseason (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Yankees entered the offseason with multiple holes to fill after trading away veterans at last year’s deadline, but following a couple of early splashes, the team remained quiet for the bulk of the winter.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Yankees managed to flirt with contention late into the 2016 season despite acting mostly as sellers at the non-waiver trade deadline. New York’s three-headed bullpen monster of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances (often referred to as “No Runs DMC”) was the envy of clubs around the league early in the season and will be imitated (though not likely replicated) for years to come. However, GM Brian Cashman tore that trio apart just prior to the deadline, dealing Chapman to the Cubs and Miller to the Indians in exchange for a king’s ransom of prospects, thus creating a need in the ’pen.

Aroldis Chapman | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

New York was linked to each of the “big three” closers on the market — Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon — but ultimately stuck with a known commodity by signing Chapman to a record-setting five-year, $86MM contract. The deal allows Chapman to opt out in three years, should he see fit. Following that addition, the Yankees were linked to countless other relievers, including Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins and Brett Cecil, but Chapman was their lone Major League signing.

Also changing hands at last year’s trade deadline was Carlos Beltran, who went to the Rangers in exchange for yet another pair of prospects. Cashman & Co. explored the possibility of re-signing Beltran and also looked into top slugger Edwin Encarnacion for the better part of a month as they sought to add a DH bat. Ultimately, they settled on a more affordable option, inking Matt Holliday to a one-year, $13MM deal. The Yankees hit just .254/.317/.391 as a collective unit against left-handed pitching last season, and while Holliday had his own troubles against southpaws in 2016, they were largely BABIP driven. He still showed good power and solid strikeout and walk rates against lefties and should help with that deficiency.

Of course, when looking for ways in which to improve performance against left-handed pitching, clearing space for young Gary Sanchez to see regular at-bats likely ranked near the top of the Yankees’ list of priorities. That goal was accomplished by shipping Brian McCann and $11MM to the Astros in exchange for a pair of low-level righties. That deal not only opened the door for Sanchez, who hit .299/.376/.657 as a rookie (albeit with a significant slump to end the year), it also cleared a fair bit of money off the Yankees’ luxury tax ledger. For a club that has sought to get younger not only to build a sustainable core but also to escape the annual luxury taxation penalties, the two-fold value of that trade shouldn’t be overlooked.

Following those three early moves, it was a fairly quiet winter for the Yankees. While they were linked to names like Jose Quintana, Chris Sale and numerous other trade targets, the Yankees elected to hold onto their recently acquired stockpile of prospects. On the other side of the coin, veterans like Brett Gardner, Starlin Castro and Chase Headley were all said to be available in trades but failed to generate interest and/or quality offers.

The Yanks did go bargain shopping late in the winter, poking around Travis Wood’s market and eventually snagging defensively challenged/strikeout-prone NL home run king Chris Carter on a one-year, $3.5MM deal. Relative to the $37.5MM the division-rival Orioles spent on a comparable skill set (Mark Trumbo), that pickup looks like a nice value play for the Yankees.

Questions Remaining

When previewing the Yankees’ offseason back in mid-October, I wrote that adding a rotation arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 season seemed “imperative” for a Yankees team that is poised to lose each of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia to free agency next winter. Clearly, the New York front office didn’t agree: the closest the team came to bolstering its rotation was the minor-league signing of long-time starter and reclamation project Jon Niese, who battled in camp for a pen spot.

It was a minor miracle that three players with the injury concerns that Pineda, Tanaka and Sabathia carried into the 2016 campaign combined to start 90 games for New York. With Nathan Eovaldi gone following Tommy John surgery, Luis Severino won the fourth spot in the rotation. He’s admittedly been very promising thus far, but Severino has yet to demonstrate that he’s capable of sustaining this level of play for a whole season.

While rolling the dice, so to speak, on a pitcher of his upside is a perfectly reasonable play in a vacuum, it’s considerably riskier when the rotation is led by three injury risks with four even more inexperienced arms on hand to round out the fifth slot. Southpaw Jordan Montgomery won the fifth spot and has looked solid through three starts, but the injury question marks and inexperience that permeate the Yankees’ rotation could bite the team later this season. Righties Chad Green, Luis Cessa and Bryan Mitchell are all on hand as reserve options, though that trio has combined for just 25 Major League starts.

Looking to the bullpen, the Yanks again possess a solid late-inning trio in Chapman, Betances and Tyler Clippard. Adam Warren, meanwhile, is a fine multi-inning/swingman option, though the remainder of the relief corps, as is the case in the rotation, is lacking in experience. Tommy Layne posted a terrific ERA in the Bronx after a midseason pickup, but his secondary stats paint a less impressive picture. Rookie right-hander Jonathan Holder posted video game numbers in the minors last season but entered the year with just 5 1/3 innings under his belt. Mitchell claimed the other bullpen spot, but the 26-year-old hasn’t yet shown the ability to miss bats on a consistent basis in the Majors. Chasen Shreve, Ben Heller, Green and Cessa are among the depth options in the upper minors, but it still looks like there was room to add another arm to the bullpen this winter.

Perhaps the lack of additions shouldn’t come as a surprise, however. The Yankees are a club that has oft stated a desire to get younger, and that’s played out both in the pitching staff and throughout the lineup. The early returns on both Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks are both extremely encouraging — so much so that Gardner’s playing time could potentially take a hit. (Should that play out, expect to hear his name once again bandied about trade rumors.)

The results at first base have been far less encouraging, with Greg Bird and Carter both struggling. Tyler Austin was lost for all of Spring Training due to a fractured foot and has yet to get back into the Triple-A lineup, so the Yanks will have to hope for one of the current options to come alive at the plate. If no one from that group can get it going at the plate, this past offseason served as proof that the current supply of first basemen is larger than the demand, so perhaps an addition could be made.

From a larger-picture perspective, the future of several veteran Yankees is also worth speculating upon. Gardner, Headley and even Castro (despite his relative youth) were all prominently featured in trade rumors this winter. As previously noted, Judge and Hicks could diminish Gardner’s role if both stay productive, and Clint Frazier is waiting in the wings in Triple-A. Either Castro or the resurgent Headley could become expendable as well, once Gleyber Torres reaches the cusp of the Majors. And, of course, moving any of those veterans would further help the Yankees move away from the dreaded luxury tax threshold, as each is playing on a significant multi-year deal.

Deal(s) of Note

The Yankees will face obvious public relations issues for years to come for acquiring Chapman not once, but twice in the wake of his domestic violence allegations in the 2016-17 offseason. Some will move on and prioritize Chapman’s on-field contributions over his off-field issues, but there will be fans and industry folk alike that pass harsh judgment on the organization.

From a purely baseball standpoint, though, the Chapman contract was noteworthy for the Yankees themselves and for the future of free-agent relievers. Chapman was one of three relievers to break Jonathan Papelbon’s fairly long-standing record (four years, $50MM) for a relief pitcher this winter. Beyond that, each of Chapman, Jansen and Melancon secured an opt-out provision in his contract, further boosting the premium that is placed on elite bullpen help.

That’s especially notable as we look ahead to the mega-class of free agents that looms in the 2018-19 offseason; Zach Britton will headline that year’s crop of relievers, with Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera and Jeurys Familia all on the open market as well. While it’d be tough for any of them to top Chapman’s $86MM guarantee (Britton seemingly has the best chance), this offseason unquestionably helped to move the market forward for top-tier relief help.

And yet, despite the exceptional value placed on Chapman and other relievers in free agency, the arbitration system lags behind. There’s no greater evidence of that disconnect than the bizarre scenario that unfolded between the Yankees and setup man Dellin Betances.

Dellin Betances | Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Betances carried one of the most unique arbitration cases in recent history into the hearing room this offseason, as he filed for a $5MM salary against the Yankees’ $3MM submission.

Saves are king in arbitration dealings, and Betances is lacking in that department, with just 22 in his career. However, few relievers hit their first trip through arb with anywhere near the combination of 22 saves and 78 holds that Betances carried, and none has done so with those totals and Betances’ rate stats. The 28-year-old, to date, has registered a career 2.16 ERA with 14.3 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.

Betances ultimately lost his case, which was noteworthy on its own, but the bizarre tirade from Yankees president Randy Levine that followed the hearing was even more head-scratching. Seemingly unprovoked, Levine blasted Betances and his reps for attempting “to change a well-established market” by seeking a significant raise for a pitcher who had not been utilized as a pure closer. The unnecessary tirade may have damaged the relationship with Betances, as the righty said shortly thereafter that he thinks free agency “will be a little easier when the time comes.”

There’s admittedly little in the way of impact on the Yankees’ roster in the near future, and perhaps the two sides can bury the hatchet between now and the completion of the 2019 season, when Betances will be a free agent. But it’s nonetheless rare to see an executive so brazenly call out one of his players, especially with nothing to gain from the ordeal.

Overview

The Yankees broke the bank on arguably the most dominant reliever in the game, but the remainder of their moves were either short-term or made with an eye toward continuing to inject youth into the roster. For a team that won 84 games last season, a full year of Chapman in the ’pen and Sanchez behind the plate seems like a recipe for improvement. However, the Yankees almost wholly ignored their lack of rotation depth, instead continuing to bank on a trio of injury-prone starters and a host of unproven young pitchers that may or may not prove to be capable rotation cogs in the long-term.

For a team with postseason aspirations, the contradictory nature of spending $86MM on a closer while simultaneously passing up the ability to add rotation help despite an abundance of affordable arms is confounding. The Yankees’ roster is teeming with young talent and upside, but a few extra arms in what wound up being a buyers’ market for pitching would’ve gone a long ways toward bolstering their playoff hopes. Moreover, the plan for 2018 remains cloudy, as there’s no one with an established Major League track record controlled beyond the current season

The Yankees are off to a strong start and may well return to the playoffs in 2017. Their minor league depth is impressive, to say the least, but I can’t help wondering if the top-heavy allocation of resources in the rotation and in the bullpen necessitated relying too heavily on that depth this year.

Cast your own vote on the Yankees’ offseason below (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The first offseason of the Twins’ new-look front office was headlined by a litany of Brian Dozier trade rumors that never came to fruition. Ultimately, the winter proved to be a quiet one for a club that has spent the better part of a decade in the American League Central cellar.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

  • Claimed SS/2B/3B Ehire Adrianza off waivers from the Brewers
  • Acquired Rule 5 RHP Justin Haley from the Angels in exchange for cash
  • Traded RHP Pat Light to the Pirates for cash

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The 2016-17 offseason marked the first test for new chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine — the two men that were tasked with leading the new Twins front office following the surprising dismissal of Minnesota GM Terry Ryan (now a special advisor with the Phillies). Those unfamiliar with the Twins may raise an eyebrow at calling it “surprising” for a 100-loss team to fire its GM, but virtually no organization has shown loyalty in its front office and coaching staff like the Twins. Incredibly, Falvey is just the fourth man to assume the top spot in Minnesota’s baseball ops hierarchy since 1985.

Derek Falvey | Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images

While Falvey and Levine didn’t gut their new roster in the same manner that some of their peers have in recent offseasons upon being hired (e.g. Jerry Dipoto in Seattle, David Stearns in Milwaukee), the new Minnesota duo did cut ties on one of the team’s longest-tenured players in the form of Trevor Plouffe. Rather than pay the third baseman a projected arbitration salary north of $8MM, Minnesota outrighted Plouffe, clearing a path for Miguel Sano to man third base.

Along those same lines, Falvey and Levine waited until late in the offseason to designate Byung Ho Park for assignment, banking on the fact that the remaining $9.25MM on his contract would allow him to pass through waivers and remain in the organization without occupying a 40-man spot. That’s exactly how the situation panned out, and he’ll now look to work his way back to the Majors after a strong Spring Training once he returns from an injury in Triple-A.

While an overabundance of corner/DH options (many of whom haven’t been impressive) has been a recent issue for the Twins, catching has been a need in Minnesota since concussions and back injuries forced Joe Mauer to vacate his lifelong position and move to first base. The post-Mauer days have seen the Twins turn to Kurt Suzuki for three years and a long list of less-productive options, including Ryan Doumit, Josmil Pinto, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann, John Ryan Murphy, Juan Centeno and Eric Fryer.

The first significant move for Falvey and Levine was to shore up the catching spot with a plus defender — something they lacked during the three-year term of Suzuki. Suzuki was often a passable offensive option, relative to other backstops, but he struggled greatly in throwing out runners and in framing pitches. No team caught fewer than the 64 runners the Twins have thrown out in stolen base attempts from 2014-16. (And it’s not particularly close, with the Rockies and White Sox tied for the next-fewest at 82.)

Jason Castro’s three-year, $24.5MM deal might’ve seemed steep based on his offensive struggles, but he grades out as one of baseball’s best framers and threw out base thieves at a 30.4 percent clip in 2015-16. Pitching has been one of the Twins’ greatest ills since their 2011 downward spiral, and Castro should help out the staff in a number of ways. Castro’s struggles against lefties may have prompted Falvey and Levine to bring in a player with whom they’re quite familiar in veteran backstop Chris Gimenez. After spending time with Falvey’s Indians and Levine’s Rangers in recent years, Gimenez broke camp as the backup to Castro in Minnesota, giving the club a platoon option with solid glovework himself.

Bullpen depth has been an issue for the Twins in recent seasons, and while Matt Belisle is hardly a big-name addition, he represented a highly affordable option (one year, $2.05MM) that has pitched to a combined 2.15 ERA across 79 2/3 innings over the past two seasons. He doesn’t miss many bats — an all-too-common trend among Twins pitchers — but has enjoyed relatively consistent success dating back to the 2010 campaign.

Questions Remaining

The biggest question surrounding the Twins this offseason was whether they should pull the trigger on a trade of Brian Dozier on the heels of the second baseman’s 42-homer campaign. Unfortunately for Minnesota, it was hardly a seller’s market. Only the Dodgers and Angels truly needed second base upgrades, and the Halos’ lackluster farm system made it difficult to pursue a premium trade target.

Rumors tying the Dodgers to Dozier persisted for the better part of two months. Specific machinations vary from report to report, but the general, underlying theme seems fairly clear. The Dodgers felt comfortable parting with promising right-handed pitching prospect Jose De Leon in a straight-up swap for Dozier, while the Twins wanted at least one quality second piece. Early reports had the Twins pursuing top-level second pieces such as Cody Bellinger and Yadier Alvarez, though later reports indicated that lesser-regarded names like Brock Stewart were off the table as a secondary piece, as well. Ultimately, L.A. swapped De Leon for Logan Forsythe in a one-for-one exchange.

So, the Twins entered 2017 with Dozier again in the heart of their lineup, and the question now turns to whether it was a mistake not to flip him for De Leon. Certainly, the 24-year-old De Leon is a promising piece, but there’s serious risk in swapping a proven big leaguer for just one pitching prospect (as Twins fans know all too well from the Denard Span / Alex Meyer trade), and Dozier could be in higher demand this summer. Dozier’s quietly been one of the game’s better second basemen for the past four seasons (16.4 fWAR, 17.8 rWAR), but a sudden downturn in performance or a significant injury could make the decision to hold look ill-advised.

Looking to the rest of the roster, the Twins face a familiar refrain. There are question marks up and down the rotation, the bullpen could be thin, and the lineup is extremely dependent on a number of high-ceiling but unproven position players.

Ervin Santana has been somewhat quietly excellent since last June, and Hector Santiago is off to a nice start as he looks to rebound from a terrible stint with Minnesota last season. Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia (acquired last summer for Eduardo Nunez) all broke camp in the rotation, but Mejia’s already been optioned out after struggling. Hughes’ velocity is down after thoracic outlet surgery last summer, and Gibson hasn’t shown signs of righting the ship after a down year in 2016.

The Twins lost one rotation candidate early in spring when Trevor May tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. It’s possible that Tyler Duffey could get another look in the rotation, with other candidates including once-vaunted prospect Jose Berrios (who was shelled in his first tastes of the Majors last year) or well-regarded lefty Stephen Gonsalves. Former top picks Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay don’t appear to be especially close, and Jay is in fact now being developed as a reliever. Suffice it to say, the rotation picture is murky, at best.

Adding Belisle to the bullpen was a fine low-cost/low-risk move, but the Twins’ relief corps is still rife with uncertainty. Glen Perkins will be out until at least June following last year’s shoulder surgery, and it remains to be seen if Brandon Kintzler can sustain his 2016 success. Ryan Pressly pitched well from 2014-16, and Taylor Rogers looked like a solid lefty upon debuting in 2016. Beyond that, the Twins are counting on a hodgepodge of inexperienced arms and reclamation projects (e.g. Craig Breslow) to buttress a shaky rotation.

The lineup comes with similar questions. Each of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler has frequented top 100 prospect lists in recent years, and each has had some big league success. But, none of the bunch has solidified himself as a big league regular just yet. Buxton’s early struggles, in particular, lead to further questions for this team.

In the infield, Jorge Polanco opened the year as the everyday shortstop despite the fact that scouting reports peg him as a better option at second base or third base. Sano, meanwhile, needs to prove that he can serve as a passable defensive option at third base. Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana made the club as reserves, but Santana hasn’t hit since his BABIP-fueled rookie season, and his lack of minor league options could jeopardize his 40-man spot at some point in 2017. At some point, Park or Kennys Vargas will be settled upon as the long-term option at designated hitter, but Robbie Grossman has held down the fort quite nicely in that regard early in 2017.

Deal of Note

Entering the offseason, few would’ve projected Jason Castro to receive the most significant contract of any catcher this winter. The 29-year-old is a former first-round pick and did have an All-Star 2013 campaign in which he batted .276/.350/.485 with 18 home runs in 491 plate appearances. But, he followed up that excellent season with a collective .215/.291/.369 batting line from 2014-16 and hit just .210/.307/.377 in his platform year before free agency.

Jason Castro | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The market for Castro was robust from the start, though, with multiple clubs showing interest. The Twins, Rays and Braves led the charge in pursuing Castro, though he was said to have multi-year offers from at least four teams in addition to multiple three-year offers before signing with Minnesota. Compare that to the market of Matt Wieters — a considerably more accomplished offensive player — and the Castro contract becomes a readily apparent sign of a paradigm shift in the valuation of catchers throughout the league.

Catcher defense is being valued at an all-time high, with a particular emphasis on pitch-framing coming into focus. Wieters’ pitch-framing marks have been below average in recent years, as have those of Welington Castillo — another catcher whose bat is superior to that of Castro but was surprisingly non-tendered. Castillo had to settle for a guaranteed two years at a lesser rate than Castro, further exemplifying that teams are increasingly concerned with what catchers do behind the plate than what they can do at the plate.

While the addition of Castro isn’t going to turn the Twins’ pitching staff from a bottom-of-the-league unit to a premium collection of arms, there’s also an argument to be made that signing a catcher with this skill-set was the best way for Minnesota to overhaul its staff in one fell swoop. Framing numbers, of course, are an inexact science, but for the sake of comparison, Baseball Prospectus rated Suzuki 6.8 runs below average in terms of framing last year, while Castro was among the game’s best at 16.3 runs above average.

Overview

As has been the case in recent years, the Twins are relying on some questionable veteran arms in the rotation and a slew of talented-but-unproven position players to fill out the lineup. Thus far, the Twins have trotted out an everyday lineup that features five players — Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco — that were regarded as top 100 prospects within the past two years. There’s plenty of upside in this bunch, but it’s not realistic to expect that each of that quintet will prove to be an average regular or better.

It’s true that in any given season, any club could contend with enough breaks (see: the 2015 Twins). This year’s version of the Twins got off to a hot start, but it still seems likely that 2017 will be more about determining which members of the team’s most recent wave of top prospects can live up to the hype.

If and when they fall out of the race in the American League Central, the Twins will have a handful of chips to cash in and further add to the youth movement, including Dozier, Ervin Santana, Kintzler, Belisle and any of Santiago, Hughes and Gibson depending on health and performance. The new front office didn’t act as a definitive seller this winter, though, suggesting that Falvey, Levine & Co. at least feel it’s possible that enough of the young talent already in the system can be vital cogs in the next competitive Twins team.

Let’s see what MLBTR readers thought about Minnesota’s offseason (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

After narrowly missing a World Series championship in one of the most entertaining Game 7s the sport has ever seen, the Indians entered the winter with a clear focus on returning to that stage.

Major League Signings

  • Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH: Three years, $60MM (plus 2020 club option)
  • Boone Logan, LHP: One year, $6.5MM (plus 2018 club option)
  • Total spend: $66.5MM

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired RHP Nick Goody from Yankees in exchange for PTBNL
  • Acquired RHP Carlos Frias from Dodgers in exchange for cash
  • Selected LHP Hoby Milner from Phillies in Rule 5 Draft (returned to Phillies)
  • Claimed LHP Edwin Escobar off waivers from the D-backs (released to allow him to sign in Japan)
  • Claimed 1B/3B/OF Richie Shaffer off waivers from the Reds (later outrighted to Triple-A)
  • Claimed LHP Tim Cooney off waivers from the Cardinals (released, re-signed to minor league deal)

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Brandon Guyer, OF: Two years, $5MM (plus 2019 club option)
  • Roberto Perez, C: Four years, $9MM (plus 2021-22 club options)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B/2B/OF: Five years, $26MM (plus 2022-23 club options)

Notable Losses

Indians depth chat | Indians payroll outlook

Needs Addressed

As one would expect of a team that took the Cubs to the limit in Game 7 of the World Series, the Indians entered the offseason with relatively few needs. The entire rotation was set to return, and the team also possessed some upper-level depth options in the minors. Replacing Mike Napoli at first base and finding a suitable left-handed relief option to join Andrew Miller in the bullpen were Cleveland’s top two priorities. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff and the rest of the Indians front office — minus now-former assistant GM Derek Falvey, who was hired away by the division-rival Twins as their new chief baseball officer — did so in a big way.

Cleveland waited out a surprisingly slow market for top slugger Edwin Encarnacion (more on that pursuit below) and, much as they did in acquiring Miller from the Yankees this past summer, surprised many by adding one of the marquee names on the market. The cost fell shy of expectations for Encarnacion but remains a relatively steep investment for the tight-budgeted Indians, who entered the 2017 season with a club-record $124MM payroll, thanks largely to Encarnacion. Though he’s off to a slow start, April has historically been Encarnacion’s worst month by a wide margin, and his bat should more than offset the loss of Napoli, who returned to Texas for a third stint with the Rangers.

It was a similar story with Logan, as the early market for left-handed relief pitching was extremely steep. After Brett Cecil landed four years and just over $30MM from the Cardinals and Mike Dunn scored $19MM over a three-year term with the Rockies, Logan and fellow southpaw Jerry Blevins looked to be in line for solid multi-year contracts. That never panned out, however, as each languished on the free agent market longer than expected. And while many believed the Indians to be tapped out after their signing of Encarnacion, ownership gave the green light to spend a bit more cash.

Logan was signed to a somewhat surprising one-year deal in February, further proving the point that it typically behooves players (especially relievers) to sign early in free agency. He can still take home a total of $12.5MM if the option is exercised, but waiting out the market and securing a quality ’pen piece on a one-year deal was a nice move by the Tribe’s front office.

With some uncertainty surrounding the health of Michael Brantley as well as the departure of Rajai Davis — who signed back with the Athletics — Cleveland added some notable names on minor league contracts. Both Austin Jackson and Michael Martinez made the club and are serving as reserve pieces early in the season, though one has to imagine that the recently demoted Tyler Naquin will eventually resurface and challenge for one of their roster spots.

Finally, as has long been a hallmark of the cost-efficient Indians, Cleveland pursued extensions with a number of its young players. While efforts to lock up burgeoning superstar Francisco Lindor fell short, the team was successful in hammering out three multi-year deals. Brandon Guyer’s $5MM extension gives the club a quality outfield platoon option at a very reasonable rate through at least the 2018 season and possibly through 2019.

Jose Ramirez | Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Perez extension, too, bolsters the Cleveland bench for the foreseeable future. While some may raise an eyebrow at extending a pre-arb catcher that batted .183/.285/.294 in the preceding season, Perez is regarded as a superlative defensive backstop. He also flashed some offensive ability in 2015 when he hit .220/.348/.402 with seven homers in just 220 plate appearances. The price for catcher defense has continually risen in recent years, and Perez can likely justify the deal with his glove alone even if the bat never comes around. If it does, though, Cleveland should have a nice bargain on its hands.

The big move for Cleveland, though, was agreeing to terms on a long-term pact with perhaps its top breakout star of the 2016 campaign. Ramirez, still just 24 years of age, went from light-hitting utility man to Cleveland’s everyday third baseman last year with an excellent .312/.363/.462 batting line to accompany his 11 homers and 22 steals. He can play virtually anywhere on the diamond, as evidenced by his shift to second base this season in the early absence of Jason Kipnis. Ramirez struck out in just 10 percent of his plate appearances last year and continues to suggest that his power is still developing; he’s already homered four times in 2017.

Questions Remaining

As mentioned above, when a team comes within inches of winning the World Series and retains the vast majority of that roster, there aren’t going to be many questions. In Cleveland, the biggest unknown surrounding the team is simply health.

No one knows what to expect out of Brantley after he missed nearly the entire 2016 season due to a shoulder injury that has now required two surgeries. But the Indians made it to Game 7 last season despite receiving zero production from Brantley, arguably their best all-around player, so anything he’s able to contribute in 2017 is just a bonus. To date, he’s batted .289/.373/.489 through 12 games, reminding everyone what an excellent player he was prior to his injury.

In the rotation, Cleveland will hope for better health from Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, each of whom suffered late-season injuries that compromised the team’s postseason pitching depth. Both right-handers have front-of-the-rotation upside if they’re able to stay on the field. Combining them with Corey Kluber makes for a lethal 1-2-3 atop Cleveland’s starting five. Trevor Bauer remains somewhat enigmatic both on and off the field, but his talent is undeniable even if his results are inconsistent. Josh Tomlin finished poorly in 2016 and is off to a worse start in 2017, so if there’s one potential need, it’s at the back of the rotation.

With Cody Anderson lost to Tommy John surgery, the top depth options in Cleveland are Mike Clevinger and Ryan Merritt (who achieved folk hero status with a tremendous spot start in Toronto during last year’s ALCS). If Cleveland is going to go outside the organization anywhere on the summer trade market, my bet would be on an effort to shore up the fifth spot in the rotation. Of course, both Bauer and Tomlin have had plenty of productive stretches, and each could quickly turn his season around.

Deal of Note

Entering the winter, Encarnacion was arguably the top bat available in free agency, and the notion of him signing with the Indians would’ve been little more than a pipe dream. Deep-pocketed clubs like the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rangers were all connected to the slugger, and the Astros, who have become increasingly more aggressive with their spending, were also prominently linked to Encarnacion. When Encarnacion reportedly rejected a four-year, $80MM offer from the Blue Jays, the assumption was that he’d top that guarantee by a fairly wide margin.

Edwin Encarnacion | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Instead, Encarnacion surprisingly saw his market shrivel in a hurry. The Blue Jays, like many other teams and most pundits, assumed that Encarnacion was gone once he said no to that $80MM figure and pivoted to switch-hitting slugger Kendrys Morales on a three-year, $33MM deal. Boston, instead of spending big in an effort to replace David Ortiz, signed a quality defensive first baseman (Mitch Moreland) and moved Hanley Ramirez into primary DH duties. The Yankees made sense and were often linked to Encarnacion, but they went short-term in picking up Matt Holliday. Ditto for the Astros, who in addition to bringing Carlos Beltran back to Houston, traded for Brian McCann.

With most of the big-spending clubs suddenly lacking a place to put Encarnacion, it became wholly unclear as to where he’d end up. The Rangers were a common thought, but Texas was continually said to be averse (or fiscally unable) to adding another high-priced multi-year contract to its payroll. There was speculation about the Rockies, who had gone outside the box to sign Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70MM deal as their primary first baseman, but the oft-suggested trade of an outfielder (which would’ve moved Desmond to the outfield and freed up a space for Encarnacion) never materialized.

In the end, the bidding war for Encarnacion came down to the Indians and Athletics — as unlikely a pairing as we’ve ever seen for two teams duking it out for one of the game’s top free agents. Cleveland pushed its offer to three years, and Encarnacion cited a winning organization and closer proximity to his family in the Dominican Republic as reasons for choosing the reigning AL champs over Oakland. Encarnacion’s contract is the largest in Indians franchise history — a testament to the unexpected nature of the match between the two sides and to Cleveland ownership’s desire to return to the Fall Classic. If Cleveland does succeed in bringing home its first World Series title in nearly 80 years, the Dolan family won’t complain one bit about their investment in Encarnacion.

Overview

The Indians entered the offseason with very few holes on what was one of the most complete rosters in Major League Baseball, and they addressed their top needs with some of the biggest upgrades possible. It’s still feasible that the back of the rotation could use some augmenting some June or July, but despite the team’s 7-7 start, the Indians are the clear favorite in the American League Central division. It’ll be a surprise if they don’t return to the postseason. And if they can in fact return, this time with a healthy trio of Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar, they’ll enter October with a good chance of becoming the second AL Central team in the past five years to manage back-to-back World Series appearances.

Let’s open it up for everyone to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…


Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Dodgers spent heavily to retain their top free agents while also adding several new faces to what they hope will be a World Series-contending roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

International Signings

Notable Losses

Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart; Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Despite a plethora of injuries last season, the Dodgers still won their fourth straight NL West title and advanced to the NLCS.  It’s quite possible that even a moderately-healthy Dodgers club could’ve been good enough to win it all last year, and since president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was very impressed by his team’s chemistry and work ethic, the Dodgers’ main offseason focus was to get the band back together.

Even though the Dodgers had three of their biggest contributors hitting the open market, the club was remarkably able to re-sign all three of Kenley Jansen, Rich Hill and Justin Turner.  Obviously the Dodgers’ financial muscle played a part (not just any team can afford to spend $192MM on three players), though there were no shortage of other suitors in play.

Kenley Jansen

Jansen, in particular, was one of the headline names in this winter’s loaded closer market.  He drew interest from the Yankees, Giants, Marlins and Nationals, with the former two teams dropping out of the hunt after respectively signing Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon.  Miami and Washington both reportedly offered Jansen more than the Dodgers’ $80MM offer, though in the end, Jansen decided to stay in a comfortable situation rather than chase a few extra million dollars.  Of course, “only” $80MM still represents the second-largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, topped only by Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees.

The Dodgers also vied with the Marlins and Yankees in the Hill sweepstakes, with the Astros, Rangers, Red Sox and Orioles additionally showing some level of interest in the veteran southpaw.  We’ll focus more on Hill in the “Deal Of Note” section.

Turner, on the other hand, seemed like he always had his eye on remaining in Dodger blue, and the star third baseman indeed re-signed on a four-year, $64MM deal.  Turner has blossomed into one of the game’s best all-around third basemen over his three seasons in L.A., posting 5.6 fWAR in 2016 on the strength of 27 homers and a .275/.339/.493 slash line over 622 plate appearances, plus an outstanding +17.2 UZR/150 and seven Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner.  There is some risk involved in the signing (Turner is entering his age-32 season and 2016 was his first season with more than 126 games played), though on the whole, the deal looks solid, particularly since the Dodgers had a need for right-handed bats.

That search for right-handed hitting extended to the Dodgers’ efforts in the second base trade market, as the team was linked to such notable names as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Twins’ Brian Dozier.  It seemed like a deal was close with the Twins since the Dodgers were willing to move Jose De Leon to Minnesota, though talks stalled over what other prospect(s) would be involved in the trade.

The Twins wanted at least one of Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart (all top-eight prospects in the Los Angeles farm system), so facing that heavy price tag, the Dodgers pivoted to another target, acquiring Logan Forsythe from the Rays for De Leon.  Forsythe emerged as a capable everyday second baseman over his last two seasons in Tampa Bay, providing solid defense and hitting .273/.347/.444 with 37 homers over 1182 PA.  He is also signed to an affordable contract, set to earn $5.75MM in 2017 and available on an $8.5MM club option in 2018.

Even with second now spoken for, the Dodgers still brought Chase Utley back on a one-year, $2MM deal.  Utley is regarded as an important clubhouse leader and he provides infield depth as a backup at second, third and first base.  Franklin Gutierrez was another veteran depth signing who can play all three outfield positions, though his primary role will be as part of a left field platoon with Andrew Toles.  Between Utley in the infield and Gutierrez in the outfield, the two will essentially replace the contributions of utilityman Howie Kendrick, who was dealt to the Phillies.

Though L.A. has several good bullpen options already on hand, the team added Sergio Romo as a veteran arm to serve as Jansen’s setup man.  Romo was limited to just 40 games and 30 2/3 innings last season due to a flexor strain in his left elbow, though he still posted a 2.64 ERA, 4.71 K/BB rate and 9.7 K/9 for the Giants.  Romo will help fill the void left by departed free agents Joe Blanton and J.P. Howell.

Questions Remaining

While it seemed like the Dodgers had their three internal free agents atop their offseason wish list, their resources allowed them to explore a number of other potential options.  There’s an alternate reality out there where Los Angeles upgrades its rotation by trading for Jose Quintana or Jake Odorizzi instead of re-signing Hill, trades for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier instead of re-signing Turner and addresses closer by signing Chapman over Jansen.

The argument can definitely be made that the Dodgers chose wisely by simply re-signing quality players they were comfortable and familiar with on and off the field.  Still, big-ticket free agent signings have been a relatively small part of Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi’s transactional arsenal since taking over the team’s baseball operations department.  Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir and Kendrick were the only free agents signed to multi-year deals in Friedman/Zaidi’s two previous offseasons running the Dodgers, and none of those contracts have provided much return to date.

Now, the Dodgers have handed two expensive deals to two players (Hill and Turner) in their 30’s and also committed $86MM to a relief pitcher, albeit an elite one in Jansen.  Pursuing a trade-heavy offseason strategy would’ve cost the Dodgers more in prospects, though that could’ve been considered an acceptable loss since the team is clearly in win-now mode.  On the flip side, a team with the Dodgers’ resources is less “win now” than “win always,” so making a one-year push isn’t a necessity — a team with a shorter contention window might have added a second or even a third top prospect to land Dozier, for instance.

The added salary commitments will further complicate the Dodgers’ attempts to eventually get under the luxury tax limit.  While the tax threshold will gradually rise over the five years of the new collective bargaining agreement, harsher penalties are also in place for teams that exceed that limit.  For instance, the luxury tax threshold will go up to $197MM in 2018, but L.A. already has over $171.3MM committed to just 10 players for that season.  Real salary relief might not come until after 2018 when several big salaries (i.e. Adrian Gonzalez, McCarthy, Kazmir) come off the books, though the Dodgers also face the possibility of Clayton Kershaw opting out of his contract that offseason.

The crowded L.A. outfield saw Kendrick and Josh Reddick depart and Gutierrez and depth option Brett Eibner (in a trade with the A’s) added to the mix.  The Dodgers’ MLB roster consists of Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Toles, Scott Van Slyke, Trayce Thompson and utilityman Enrique Hernandez available for outfield duty, not to mention Gutierrez and longtime Dodger Andre Ethier on the DL.  That’s a lengthy list of names that will need to be accounted for when everyone is healthy, and while several of those players could be simply optioned to Triple-A, players like Thompson or Van Slyke could also be possible trade chips.

There was much speculation last fall that the Brewers and Dodgers could revisit talks about a Ryan Braun trade, with Puig and McCarthy mentioned as possible candidates to go to Milwaukee in the deal.  Not much seemed to happen on the Braun trade front, however, and while Braun would have carried a big price tag for the Dodgers, he also would’ve brought some stability to the fluid outfield situation.  Puig is off to an excellent start in the young 2017 season, though given how inconsistently he performed in 2015-16, the Dodgers can’t yet know if they’ll get another struggling season, a return to Puig’s burgeoning superstar form of 2013-14 or anything in between.  It would aid the Dodgers immensely if Puig is able to play at least well enough to hold down a regular everyday job and Pederson can be at least somewhat productive against left-handed pitching.

Like the outfield, the L.A. rotation also has a lot of options and the potential for greatness, though little in the way of consistency either performance-wise or health-wise.  Even the phenomenal Kershaw can’t be considered a 100 percent lock given that he missed two months last season with a herniated disk.  Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Hill (when healthy) will be the rotation’s top three, with Kazmir, McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood and Julio Urias in the mix for the final two spots.  If injuries continue to be an issue, it couldn’t be surprise if the Dodgers make another deadline move for pitching, be it a mid-rotation piece or a big name like Quintana or the Rays’ Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi.

Deal Of Note

Over his last 144 1/3 MLB innings, Hill has an even 2.00 ERA to go along with a 10.6 K/9, 4.15 K/BB rate and 46.1% ground ball rate.  These are exceptional numbers for any pitcher, especially for one that just turned 37 last month and who looked all the world like a fringe major leaguer when he began this epic run in September 2015.

Rich Hill

Committing $48MM to a pitcher with those numbers is justifiable, and arguably even a bargain.  The risk for the Dodgers, of course, is Hill’s age, the consideration that his career revival will eventually come back to earth, and his health.  Hill has a checkered injury history that includes Tommy John surgery, and his 2016 was shortened by a month-long DL stint with a groin strain as well as nagging blister problems.  That latter issue has again emerged early in 2017, as Hill is currently on the 10-day DL with a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand.

As noted earlier, the Dodgers don’t have much stability in their starting rotation, and yet the team made a big investment in a pitcher who can’t help but be considered a question mark, regardless of how well Hill has performed when he has been able to take the mound.  Los Angeles was reportedly shopping McCarthy and Kazmir this winter, an ominous reminder of how Friedman/Zaidi’s other big free agent pitching signings have quickly gone south.  The Dodgers would probably be more than satisfied if Hill was suddenly only two-thirds as good as his recent effectiveness but was able to take the mound every fifth day.

Overview

For all of the questions that the Dodgers face about injuries or declining veterans, it should be noted that quite a bit went right for the club last year.  Corey Seager emerged as a superstar on the rise, Maeda looked very impressive in his first season in North American baseball, Toles came out of nowhere to become a regular contributor, and the team did fall just two games short of the National League pennant.  You can’t blame Friedman and company for essentially wanting to replicate the 2016 roster and see if they can run it back, with some new upgrades like Forsythe, Romo and Gutierrez.

How would you evaluate the Dodgers’ winter moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Brandon Phillips became the latest longtime Reds veteran to be traded as the franchise continued its rebuilding process.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera knocking on the door as Cincinnati’s second baseman and shortstop of the future, the Reds needed to clear some room up the middle.  Phillips had already used his no-trade protection to reject two proposed deals to the Nationals and D-backs last offseason, and given the lack of a robust market for the 35-year-old, it seemed like the Reds were willing to simply move Phillips as soon as any sort of trade could be arranged.  It may or may not have taken multiple attempts to deal Phillips to his home state of Georgia, though in the end, the Reds eventually traded Phillips to the Braves for two unheralded young arms (Andrew McKirahan and Carlos Portuondo) and only $1MM in salary relief from the $14MM owed to Phillips in 2017.

Former Brewer Scooter Gennett was claimed on waivers at the end of Spring Training, giving the Reds some veteran depth in the middle infield behind new starting second baseman Peraza.  Between Gennett, Arismendy Alcantara, and Patrick Kivlehan (the latter two originally acquired in late-season waiver claims), the Reds have a versatile trio of bench players who can all fill in at multiple positions.  Veterans Desmond Jennings and Ryan Raburn were also signed to minor league deals this winter, but were released at the end of Spring Training.

Scott Feldman | Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

The backups’ positional flexibility has allowed the Reds to begin the season with just a four-man bench, giving the team more room to add extra bullpen arms in a very fluid pitching situation.  With Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey sidelined, Cincinnati gave rotation spots to rookies Amir Garrett and Rookie Davis, with former Red Bronson Arroyo currently occupying the fifth spot in the rotation.  Arroyo rejoined the team on a minor league deal over the winter and is attempting a comeback after missing over two and a half seasons due to Tommy John surgery and rotator cuff injuries.  It’s unknown what Arroyo can bring to the table after such a long absence, though the 40-year-old promises to be a good clubhouse influence for the young Reds. If he can recapture any of his old soft contact-inducing, innings-eating form, he’ll be a boost to an inexperienced rotation.

The Reds’ higher-priced rotation addition was Opening Day starter Scott Feldman, who signed for $2.3MM in guaranteed money with almost as much available in potential bonuses as both a starter and a reliever.  Given the aforementioned injury problems in the rotation, Feldman served as the team’s Opening Day starter, and his rotation role could potentially make him a trade chip at the deadline.  Feldman can give Cincinnati some rotation stability as somewhat of a younger version of Arroyo — a pitch-to-contact veteran who doesn’t miss many bats. The 34-year-old has shown some solid durability as a starting pitcher in the past, when teams haven’t moved him into a bullpen role.  He steps into Dan Straily’s spot in the rotation, as the Reds dealt Straily to the Marlins for a package of three prospects. (More on that later.).

Drew Storen was the Reds’ other MLB signing this winter, as the former Nationals closer looks to rebound after a rough 2016 season (though he already showed some signs of a turn-around after a midseason trade to the Mariners).  He’ll join Michael Lorenzen as the setup men behind stopper Raisel Iglesias, giving the Reds an intriguing back-of-the-bullpen combination, though “back” may not exactly be accurate, as the Reds have already shown some creativity in their deployment of relievers.

Finally, the Reds completed a long-discussed front office move this winter, promoting GM Dick Williams to president of baseball operations.  Former president Walt Jocketty will remain in the organization as an advisor to team CEO Bob Castellini.

Questions Remaining

As you can tell, it was a pretty quiet winter for the Reds on the transactions front, perhaps indicative of this stage in their rebuilding process.  While there’s no doubt Cincinnati is committed to building for the future, there’s some uncertainty over whether several of the interesting young position players around the diamond (such as Billy Hamilton or Eugenio Suarez) are true building blocks or maybe just potential trade chips to further add young talent to the system.  It hasn’t helped that between the Phillips deal and last winter’s critically-panned trades of Aroldis Chapman (under difficult circumstances) and Todd Frazier, Cincinnati hasn’t gotten much in return for three of its key veterans.  Three players from the Chapman and Frazier trades (Peraza, Davis, and Scott Schebler) look to be regulars for the 2017 Reds, though of that group, it’s arguable that only Peraza projects as a true long-term piece. We’ll have to wait and see how those players pan out, though, and they’ll get their first full tests in 2017.

More trades seem likely, as it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Feldman or Storen flipped prior to the non-waiver deadline.  Hamilton was only available at a very high price tag this winter for teams (such as the Rangers) who inquired about a trade, though the Reds did seem willing to move him and could still do so if a club meets that price.  DeSclafani also drew some trade speculation during the offseason, but since a sprained UCL will sideline until until at least June, the Reds will have to wait to see what they really have in the promising righty.  It’s also fair to note that injuries have hampered the Reds’ efforts both on the field and in their rebuild — besides DeSclafani, either Bailey or Devin Mesoraco could’ve been shopped or dealt by now had either player been healthy over the last few seasons.

It was perhaps a little surprising that Zack Cozart was still in a Reds uniform on Opening Day, given that the veteran shortstop was almost traded to Seattle last summer and the Reds were keen to create room for younger infield pieces.  The Mariners’ acquisition of Jean Segura, however, took Cozart’s top trade suitor off the board, and the Padres were the only other team linked to Cozart on the rumor mill.  You’d think that some team would eventually have interest in a superb defender like Cozart, though with so many contenders already set at the shortstop position, the Reds may have to wait for an injury or another unforeseen situation to develop before the trade deadline to finally move Cozart, who is a free agent at season’s end.

No discussion of Reds trade candidates is complete with mentioning Joey Votto, even if both the team and the star first baseman insist that they are happy to continue their relationship.  Of the two, Votto’s statement carries a bit more weight given his no-trade rights.  Despite Votto’s continued superb play, his age (33) and salary (owed just under $179MM through the 2023 season) already limit his potential market.  Even if he did eventually consent to a trade, any decline will greatly hamper the Reds’ ability to get either a good prospect return or a good chunk of Votto’s salary off their books.

Nobody expected a rebuilding team to break the bank on pitching upgrades, especially with so many young hurlers in the system.  Still, given how dreadful the Reds’ bullpen was in 2016, the club certainly could’ve justified adding more newcomers than just Storen.  Cincinnati is putting a lot of faith in the Iglesias/Lorenzen combo, not to mention in improvement from Tony Cingrani and Blake Wood and rookies Wandy Peralta and Barrett Astin.  The Reds did discuss Jeremy Jeffress with the Rangers as part of trade talks for Hamilton, DeSclafani, and Straily, so once the deadline rolls around, Cincinnati could well target more controllable relief pitching.

Deal Of Note

Since I noted the Reds’ somewhat questionable returns on some of their trades of veteran players, it’s only fair to mention how much value they received from Straily’s one-year tenure with the team.  Cincinnati claimed Straily off waivers from the Padres just prior to Opening Day 2016, and the right-hander ended up being the Reds’ most reliable starter, posting a 3.76 ERA, 7.62 K/9 and 2.22 K/BB rate over 191 1/3 innings.

Dan Straily

On paper, a pitcher coming off that sort of a season who is also under club control through 2020 would project as a long-term piece for a rebuilding team.  Instead, however, the Reds dealt Straily to Miami for right-handers Luis Castillo and Austin Brice, plus 20-year-old outfield prospect Isaiah White.  Brice will begin the year on the DL with an elbow injury but could factor into the Major League bullpen mix later on, White is an interesting speedster and Castillo is a very promising rotation option.  Ranked as the second-best prospect in Miami’s system by Baseball America last December, Castillo owns a high-90s fastball and a potentially above-average slider (as per BA’s scouting reports).  ESPN’s Keith Law thinks enough of Castillo to rank him as the 94th-best prospect in all of baseball.

Will the Reds miss Straily, especially with their rotation again thinned by injuries?  It’s possible, though there is evidence that Cincinnati may have sold Straily at the peak of his value.  The righty’s ERA indicators (4.88 FIP, 5.02 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) weren’t impressive last season, as Straily benefited from a .239 BABIP and 81.2% strand rate.  A fly-ball pitcher throughout his career, Straily allowed a league-high 31 homers in 2016, and that was despite posting some very good numbers at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Straily was only a borderline MLB pitcher in 2014-15, managing only a 6.42 ERA over 68 2/3 IP for the Astros, Cubs and Athletics.  Even if Straily has turned a corner and 2016 represents his new normal rate of production, the Reds still did a good job of selling high on a pitcher that cost them nothing to obtain from San Diego.

Overview

The Reds almost certainly won’t be contenders in 2017, though they have started the season on an impressive 7-and-2 run. The highlight of their first half may end up being picking second overall in the June amateur draft.  It will be another season of development in Cincinnati as the team continues to plot its course through the rebuilding wilderness, though strong showings from Garrett, Davis and/or Cody Reed would go a long way towards solidifying the future rotation.  The Reds will be a team to watch in the weeks leading up to the July trade deadline.  Cozart, Feldman, Storen, Suarez, and Hamilton stand out as potential names on the move, there could be a Straily-esque under-the-radar player that also emerges as a trade chip, and business would pick up considerably if Votto consented to a deal.

What’s your take on the Reds’ winter?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Facing a number of high-profile defections and about as many big holes, the Rangers faced a tough task this winter. Their acquisitions are just talented enough to work out well for them, but they’ll need some luck to approach their 95-win total from 2016.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Josh Hamilton, James Loney (since released), Travis Snider, Will Middlebrooks, Allen Webster, Anthony Bass, Bobby LaFromboise

Extensions

  • Rougned Odor, 2B: six years, $49.5MM, including $3MM buyout on $13.5MM option for 2023
  • Robinson Chirinos, C: one year (2018), $2.35MM, including $100K buyout on $2.375MM option for 2019

Contract Options

Notable Losses

Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Mitch Moreland, Colby Lewis, Holland

Needs Addressed

Heading into the winter, the Rangers faced a number of potential high-profile defections, including those of Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Beltran, and a limited amount of cash with which to address them — the Rangers’ budget was somewhat restricted by high-dollar, low-value contracts such as those of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, as well as expensive deals for Cole Hamels, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Yu Darvish.

In particular, the Rangers needed to replace key players in their outfield, upgrade their rotation and find a solution at first base and/or DH. In their rotation, the Rangers sensibly declined longtime starter Derek Holland’s $11MM option, paying him a $1.5MM buyout after a season in which he posted a 4.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 while struggling with shoulder trouble. They also parted ways with another longtime starter, 37-year-old Colby Lewis, whose 3.71 ERA in 2016 masked lousy peripherals. Lewis remains a free agent.

The free-agent market for starting pitchers was poor, giving the Rangers limited opportunities to find another solid starter to complement Hamels, Darvish and Martin Perez. Instead, they gambled on two interesting former Padres arms, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. Both are relatively young pitchers with tantalizing stuff, but they also both come with major question marks.

Andrew CashnerCashner received $10MM and will enter the Rangers’ rotation as soon as he’s ready, likely sometime late this month. The 30-year-old brings mid-90s heat and a hard slider, but he’s never gotten the sorts of strikeout rates you’d associate with that repertoire, and he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 5.25 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 while fading down the stretch. It will be up to the Rangers to figure out why. Cashner has used his changeup less and less frequently over the years, and the pitch has been less effective when he’s thrown it; reestablishing that pitch might be a key to reviving his career. As Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris points out, Rangers catcher Jonathan Lucroy might be able to help Cashner with his quality pitch framing. In any case, Cashner’s an interesting gamble, although $10MM seems like a lot to pay given his recent performances. He’ll also begin the season on the DL due to biceps tendinitis.

The Rangers also added Tyson Ross, whose main problem is health. The 29-year-old had back-to-back excellent seasons in San Diego in 2014 and 2015, but pitched only one outing in 2016 due to shoulder trouble, and finally had offseason surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome. The Padres non-tendered him in December, and the Rangers lured him away from the Cubs with a $6MM deal. He isn’t ready yet, but he’s progressed to throwing bullpens and simulated games, and could be ready to join the Rangers early in May. It remains to be seen whether the Rangers will be getting the pitcher who struck out a batter an inning and posted ground-ball rates in the 60% range in 2014 and 2015. Ross can help them if he’s even half that good, but it’s difficult at this point to project with any certainty that he will be.

The Rangers thus began the season with a rotation that features neither of the key starting pitchers they acquired. Darvish, Hamels, Perez and A.J. Griffin (who struggled to a 5.07 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 2016 after missing two full seasons to injury) will comprise the initial rotation, with Cashner perhaps joining in mid-April when the team needs a fifth starter. The Rangers initially signed Dillon Gee to a minor-league deal, and then, after he opted out, re-signed him to a big-league contract and optioned him to Triple-A; he represents an alternative if Cashner isn’t ready to go. Given the considerable question marks surrounding Cashner, Ross, Griffin and Gee (and, if we want to get really pessimistic, Perez, who posted a very shaky 4.7 K/9 last season), the Rangers’ rotation still looks iffy, although it’s also easy to see the upside if Cashner and Ross pan out.

In the outfield, the Rangers lost Desmond to the Rockies, who agreed to pay him $70MM over five years. The Rangers, meanwhile, received the No. 29 pick in this year’s draft as compensation. The Rangers had interest in Desmond, but were wise not to match the Rockies’ offer — Desmond’s resurgence in 2016 was fueled by a career-best .350 BABIP, and he’s already 31.

Instead, the Rangers retained another outfielder, re-signing Carlos Gomez to a short-term deal to man center field. Gomez’s career seemed to be falling apart when the Astros released him last August, but he caught on with the Rangers down the stretch and batted .284/.362/.543, numbers worthy of his brilliant 2013-2014 run with Milwaukee. That sort of production probably won’t continue, but for a mere $11.5MM, the Rangers can get a good deal even if Gomez’s offense tails off. His hitting is hard to predict, and his 30.0% strikeout rate for the 2016 season is a bad sign, but he has defensive and baserunning value going for him, plus a bit of home-run power. All things considered, he seems good for about two wins above replacement, which would rather easily make him worth the value of his contract.

For first base and DH, the Rangers turned to another familiar face, that of Mike Napoli. The Rangers faced the loss not only of Beltran, but also longtime first baseman Mitch Moreland, whose production faded in 2016. Minor-league über-slugger Joey Gallo looked like an obvious candidate to take over at first, but the Rangers made clear at the beginning of the offseason that they felt the 23-year-old Gallo, who whiffed in a ghastly 34.6% of his plate appearances at Triple-A last year, ought to start 2017 in the minors. (Gallo began the season in the Majors anyway, taking over at third for Beltre, who is nursing a calf injury.)

Napoli is coming off a 34-homer season in Cleveland. The 35-year-old has always fared well in Texas — he had two of the best years of his career there in 2011 and 2012, and also was productive after the Red Sox dealt him to the Rangers in August 2015. It’s not a given his third stint with the team will go as well, given his age and his seemingly limited ability to hit for average. He batted just .248 in 2014, .227 in 2015 and .239 in 2016, and if his ability to make contact declines at all, he might have trouble hitting enough homers to compensate. As with the Gomez deal, though, it’s hard to argue with the limited commitment the Rangers made, coughing up only $11MM guaranteed and getting a 2018 team option in the deal as well.

The Rangers also exercised Lucroy’s $5.25MM 2017 option (probably the easiest move they made this winter), and extended backup Robinson Chirinos. Chirinos’ extension bought out his 2018 season, which would have been his last season of arbitration eligibility, for just $2.35MM, likely less than he would have gotten had he been even modestly productive in 2017. The Rangers also received a cheap option for 2019, giving them a couple years of flexibility as they prepare for Lucroy’s possible departure to free agency next winter. Chirinos had never been paid more than $1.55MM in a season prior to the extension, and, at age 32, might never have gotten another shot at a multiyear, multimillion-dollar contract. His new deal thus provides him with a bit of financial security.

Questions Remaining

The Rangers never did acquire another player to help at DH, and it appears they’ll have Choo soak a number of plate appearances there. In a vaccum, that makes sense — Choo has rated as a below-average outfield defender in the past several seasons, and he’s had health problems to boot. With Nomar Mazara slated for the bulk of the time in right, that leaves left field open to one of the most wide-open time shares in baseball.

Delino DeShields arguably sits atop the depth chart at left field, which seems like a questionable proposition. DeShields is coming off an outstanding spring in which he posted a .442 OBP, but he’s coming off a miserable 2016 season in which he batted just .209/.275/.313. At just 24, DeShields is young enough to improve, and he’ll certainly make the Rangers’ defense better. But his bat is a question mark. Neither Ryan Rua nor Drew Robinson have established a track record of offensive production at the major league level, but they’ll also factor in the mix.

Then, there’s Jurickson Profar, once an elite prospect and now something of a super-utility option. Though there was reported trade interest over the winter, Texas elected to hang onto Profar to see if he can restore some of his lost luster. He will participate in the game of musical chairs in left and might also step into the infield wherever a need arises. Gallo, too, could theoretically shift to the corner outfield in addition to seeing time in the corner infield or at DH, depending upon how the season progresses. For both of these top prospects, it’s something of a make-or-break year for their futures with the Rangers.

Then there’s the Rangers’ pitching staff. It’s always hard to know how a bullpen will perform, but the Rangers’ looks fine — their 2016 ’pen didn’t rate well overall, but they’re returning most of the relievers (including Sam Dyson, Matt Bush, Tony Barnette and Alex Claudio) who were key to their second half, when their bullpen did an outstanding job keeping the ball on the ground and were very effective overall. Another key reliever, Jake Diekman, will be out until at least the All-Star Break after having colon surgery. Jeremy Jeffress will need to keep his off-field issues in check to play his expected role; if he can do that and remain effective, then either he or Bush would represent alternatives at the closer role if Dyson’s early struggles continue.

They’ll have to get the ball to those pitchers, though, and their rotation looks like it could quickly boil down to Hamels, Darvish and then a bunch of uncertainties, particularly if Cashner and Ross don’t reemerge.

Deal Of Note

"<strongLate in Spring Training, the Rangers announced that they’d signed second baseman Rougned Odor to a six-year, $49.5MM deal with a club option for 2023. The deal buys out what would have been Odor’s first two free agent seasons, with an option for a third.

The deal is roughly comparable to recent six-year, one-option extensions for fellow second basemen Jason Kipnis and Matt Carpenter, who received $52.5MM and $52MM, respectively, when they had between two and three years of service time. It’s also interesting to compare Odor’s deal to that of another infielder’s recent extension: that of Jose Ramirez, who received just $26MM over five years and gave up two option years. Even if the Indians exercise Ramirez’s first option, he’ll only receive a total of $35MM, far less than Odor, Kipnis or Carpenter received.

It’s debatable whether Odor will be as valuable as Kipnis or Carpenter have proven to be — Odor produced a mere .296 OBP and questionable defensive numbers in 2016. But the outlier here is Ramirez’s contract, not Odor’s, and that ultimately isn’t surprising. Kipnis, Carpenter, Ramirez and Odor were all early enough in their careers at the time of their extensions that many of the yearly salaries their extensions covered would have been governed by the arbitration process, which values counting stats. While Odor doesn’t have the overall track record Kipnis or Carpenter did, his 33-homer total in 2016, if sustained, probably would have gotten him paid at a similar rate. That’s particularly likely since the Kipnis and Carpenter contracts are both now three years old.

Ramirez, meanwhile, had two uneven years before his breakout 2016 and hasn’t posted outstanding counting stats in any category. As a player, I’d probably prefer Ramirez to Odor, due to Ramirez’s defense and versatility, as well as the greater likelihood that he’ll continue to reach base at a palatable rate. But it makes sense that Odor was the one who got the big contract.

These are, of course, different questions than whether the Rangers should have extended Odor. Odor whiffed seven times as often as he walked in 2016, a worrying sign. He only recently turned 23, though, so there’s plenty of room for growth. And even if his career stagnates, his deal is still fairly cheap in the grand scheme of things despite being considerably more expensive than Ramirez’s, and his positional value, power and age insulate the Rangers somewhat against the possibility that the deal will go south.

Overview

The Rangers’ 95-win 2016 season was built on shaky ground — they only scored eight more runs than they allowed. This year, their weaknesses look fairly obvious, particularly in their rotation. They have enough marquee talent (including Hamels, Darvish, Beltre, and Lucroy, potentially along with players like Odor or young outfielder Nomar Mazara) to contend if things go well, however. Within that context, their signings of Cashner and Ross this offseason look like Hail Mary passes — those gambles don’t appear incredibly likely to produce huge dividends, but could be decisive for the team if they do. The Rangers might have a hard time topping the Astros this season. But it’s easy to see how they could.

If things don’t go as hoped, though, the front office will increasingly face questions about how to handle the next offseason. While the Rangers could revisit extension talks with Darvish and Lucroy, or pursue them on the open market, efforts at new deals fizzled this spring. That could leave two very notable holes on the roster at the end of the 2017 season.

How would you rate the Rangers’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

For the third time in five years, the 2016 Nats followed up on their NL East crown with a first-round departure from the postseason. And yet again, the club endeavored this winter to build around one of the game’s best core groups of talent.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Options Exercised

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Nationals Roster; Nationals Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Getting over the hump in the postseason is not a straightforward matter. The Nationals lost a tight NLDS series last year, much as they did in their two prior efforts. For top baseball exec Mike Rizzo and his staff, there was little reason to do more this winter than to keep adding around a talented core at the major league level.

While there was no glaring area that the team failed in last year, there were needs that opened as the offseason got underway. But the organization wasn’t just interested in filling holes; it came into the winter looking to add impact talent.

Thus it was that Washington pushed hard for a deal to land ace lefty Chris Sale from the White Sox, losing out in a classic Winter Meetings bidding war to the Red Sox. While starting pitching was hardly an area of need, plugging Sale into the already formidable staff would’ve added another high-end player. Missing on him, then, did not mean checking down to another rotation option.

Instead, when the Sale pursuit fell through, the club pivoted quickly to outfielder Adam Eaton. With the groundwork already laid with Chicago, a deal came together in short order. Three talented young hurlers — Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning — were shipped out to pick up five years of bargain-rate control over the 28-year-old Eaton. We’ll take a closer look at that swap in the “deal of note” section below.

Eaton will return to center in D.C. He’s best-suited to right, but ought to be at least an average defender in center. Plugging him there meant moving exciting youngster Trea Turner to his native shortstop, which in turn would’ve meant a return to the bench for Danny Espinosa. Instead, the Nats shipped him out to the Angels and went on to re-sign Stephen Drew to function as the primary reserve infielder. Prospect Wilmer Difo is also available should a need arise in the infield.

While pursuing Eaton, the Nationals reportedly also sought to grab veteran closer David Robertson from the Sox. The Nats had already failed to re-sign Mark Melancon — the 2016 deadline acquisition whose departure created an opening in the 9th — and would soon fall short in a bid to draw Kenley Jansen from the Dodgers.

The closer’s role thus became an ongoing saga over the course of the winter, perhaps drawing added attention owing to the team’s recent ups and downs at the position. It seemed at times that a match on Robertson was nearly inevitable, and some reports suggest that ownership nixed a deal. In the end, though, the Nationals held off on a big move, instead holding a competition in camp.

The club ultimately chose Blake Treinen and his power sinker over a roll of the dice on youngster Koda Glover. That seemed underwhelming to some, and constitutes a risk of sorts, particularly given Treinen’s sometimes-spotty command. But he certainly possesses a closer’s arsenal — a mid-to-upper nineties fastball with tons of movement, a wipeout slider, and a change that he can go to when needed — and could round into a quality closer. If not, Glover could earn a shot or yet another mid-season move could follow.

Washington didn’t end up holding pat entirely in the pen. The club made a late move to add Joe Blanton, who was a quality set-up man last year for the Dodgers and cost just $4MM. And Enny Romero, acquired in a minor trade earlier in the winter, represents another huge arm from the left side. He’ll step into the void created when Felipe Rivero was sent out to acquire Melancon, though whether he can harness his power stuff remains to be seen. The Nats also brought in a variety of veteran minor-league free agents to bolster the depth and provide some camp competition.

The other major question entering the winter was what the Nationals would do at the catching position. Wilson Ramos left without compensation — he wasn’t made a qualifying offer — after his breakout season was ended with a second ACL tear. The Nats moved quickly to add Derek Norris, but never seemed fully committed to pairing him with Jose Lobaton and weren’t quite ready to turn things over to light-hitting defensive star Pedro Severino.

At the same time, veteran receiver Matt Wieters languished on the market. Given the longstanding relationship between agent Scott Boras and the Nationals’ ownership group, it came as little surprise when the sides finally lined up. While the price seems fair enough despite Wieters’s underwhelming results of late, there was an argument to be made that the club would have been just as well off sticking with Norris. Instead, he was released, meaning the team paid him about one-sixth of his $4.2MM arb salary and parted with prospect Pedro Avila in order to carry Norris as an insurance policy over the spring.

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There’s not a ton of upside in the Wieters deal, since he can opt out if he has a strong 2017 season and will not be eligible to receive a qualifying offer. But the Nationals obviously felt it was worth the premium to add the respected veteran; time will tell whether that was a wise choice.

The short-term veteran additions carried over to other areas as well. Adam Lind will take over for Clint Robinson as the lefty bench bat and reserve first baseman; he’d be a bargain with his $1.5MM guarantee if he can return to anything approaching his 2013-15 form. And Chris Heisey will return to reprise his role as an extra outfielder and righty pinch-hitting option.

Questions Remaining

As befits their status as a reigning division champ and favorite to return to the postseason in 2017, the Nationals don’t have any glaring holes on the roster. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some areas of potential concern.

Let’s start with the bullpen, which has fans wringing their hands already just a few games in. Treinen has had a few hiccups, as have Glover and others. It’s too soon to reach any judgments, of course, but the ninth inning will be watched closely and the trade deadline could seem far away if at least one member of that duo can’t consistently lock up games late.

Truth be told, the rest of the pen look solid on paper. But Shawn Kelley is being handled with care, especially after departing his last postseason outing with what seemed at the time to be a scary arm issue. Blanton is 36 years old and may have worn down late last year. From the left side, Sammy Solis has had his share of health issues, Romero has yet to show he has the command to pitch in the majors, and one wonders how long Oliver Perez can continue to beguile opposing hitters.

Jeremy Guthrie seemed likely to take a slot in the pen as a long man after making one start, but a disastrous outing led to a quick DFA. He has been replaced by Matt Albers for the time being. In terms of depth, there aren’t many proven commodities waiting at Triple-A, though there are some options. Trevor Gott still hasn’t produced results in D.C. despite his big fastball; other 40-man members include Rafael Martin, Austin Adams, Jimmy Cordero, and Matt Grace, while a few veterans such as Neal Cotts and Joe Nathan are also on hand if there’s a need.

The depth is perhaps of greater concern in the rotation, which looks to be a solid unit 1 through 5. Max Scherzer answered most of the questions about his health — he’s recovering from a finger fracture — with a strong first outing. But Stephen Strasburg remains a long-term health risk after missing time again with a forearm injury late in 2016. Gio Gonzalez is coming off of a down year and remains inconsistent, while Tanner Roark seems a solid starter who’s also a good bet to regress somewhat after a stellar campaign. And Joe Ross — who is in Triple-A to open the year but ought to be called upon soon — has experienced shoulder issues at times.

If any of those pitchers goes down, it’s an open question how the Nats will proceed. Guthrie had seemingly been slated to serve as a swingman, but it’s unclear whether he’ll remain in the organization. The next man up could be A.J. Cole, who was once seen as a top prospect but who has yet to show he can take the final step. Austin Voth has generated quality results in the upper minors, but it’s unclear whether he can do the same in the bigs. The Nats parted with minor-league signee Vance Worley late in camp, so reclamation project Jacob Turner is likely the top non-roster starter remaining.

There’s little doubt of the talent level in the lineup, which features established hitters at just about every position. But Bryce Harper needs to show that 2016 was a blip — he’s off to a promising start, and seems healthy after some strange questions about his shoulder — and Turner will try to show he can sustain his incredible performance from his rookie year. (The latter is now shelved with a hamstring strain, though the hope is it’s not a major issue.) Eaton’s ability to handle center is somewhat in question, though that’s not a huge concern and the team could utilize Michael Taylor or Brian Goodwin at times if there’s a need for more glove. Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy were outstanding last year, but the former has shown some fragility at times and the latter will be looking to sustain levels of production that greatly exceeded his career mean.

For the most part, it’s picking at nits at those positions. The Nats have greater concerns at the three remaining spots on the diamond. Left fielder Jayson Werth is closing in on his 38th birthday and hasn’t hit much in the past two seasons. The same is true of Zimmerman, whose production fell off a cliff (.218/.272/.370) in 2016. Both he and Werth have had their share of injury troubles over the years, and they’ll both need to stay healthy while increasing their output as they age for the team to reach its potential. While Lind is a nice piece as a reserve/platoon first baseman, he’ll be stretched if he’s asked to play the outfield or hit against left-handed pitching. And then there’s the catching position, where Wieters and Jose Lobaton look like a good-enough, but hardly overwhelming unit. Both are potential free agents at season’s end, so there’s plenty of incentive, and Severino is about as good a backup plan as any team has behind the dish.

Deal Of Note

The Nats’ acquisition of Eaton drew its share of negative attention, with many focusing on the fact that Eaton isn’t exactly a tools-laden superstar. But he’s a highly valuable player, particularly given his contract rights, and the deal lines up as a reasonably fair one on paper.

That’s not to say that it doesn’t hurt to lose the arms, of course, though it’s far from clear whether any member of the trio will be an impact major league starter. Giolito had solid numbers in the upper minors last year, but showed less velocity than expected and was hit hard in a brief big league stint. The Nats achieved tremendous value in nabbing him with the 16th pick of the 2012 draft, but seemingly soured on him. Clearly, he was no longer seen as the type of surefire ace that he had been characterized as this time last year.

Lopez came to the Nats with decidedly less fanfare as a low-key international signee, but turned himself into a top-flight prospect who arguably bypassed Giolito. He, too, showed well in his first stints at Double-A and Triple-A, but didn’t quite dominate upon ascending to the bigs. But he averaged 95.8 mph with his fastball in the majors and was trusted with a postseason roster spot. The question with Lopez has always been whether he’d stick in the rotation or turn into a late-inning power arm; that’ll be answered in Chicago at some point in the coming years.

It’d be a mistake to overlook Dunning, who was seen by many as a nice value after being overshadowed as a collegiate pitcher in a talented staff at the University of Florida. The 22-year-old showed well in his first foray into the professional ranks, though he’s a few years away from the big leagues.

Sacrificing those pitchers not only meant losing a lot of future control rights, but also changed the depth calculus for the 2017 season. Giolito and Lopez probably wouldn’t have cracked the Opening Day roster, but both would have been in contention for call-ups at any stage during the year after dipping their toes in the waters in 2016. As noted above, there are at least some questions regarding the Nats’ pitching depth; to be fair, though, the club also enjoys rather lengthy control rights over its existing starters.

Apr 5, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals center fielder Adam Eaton (2) scores from first base on a double by right fielder Bryce Harper against the Miami Marlins during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

So, was it worth it? As ever, that’ll be evaluated over a long period of time, particularly given the fact that Eaton’s value is so wrapped up in his contract. In essence, he’s an established star who’s being paid more like an arb-eligible player. He’s guaranteed just $18.4MM over the next three campaigns and can be controlled for a total of $20MM (with $3MM in total buyouts) for two more years. That brings the possible tab to less than forty million bucks to control Eaton’s age-28 through age-32 campaigns.

Eaton doesn’t hit a lot of long balls and doesn’t swipe a lot of bags; he has landed in the teens in both counting stats in recent years. He walks only at an average rate. But he has been remarkably steady since establishing himself as a full-time player. Eaton has posted .362, .361, and .362 OBPs in his last three years while landing at identical .144 isolated slugging marks and popping 14 long balls apiece in the past two — establishing a new power benchmark after showing little pop previously. And he has been worth between four and five runs a year on the bases in his prior two campaigns, as well.

In a way, the major open question on Eaton is the glove — both in terms of general quality and his function to the Nats. Metrics split on his work in center in 2014 — DRS loved him (+11) while UZR was not a fan (-3.3) — but agreed he struggled there in the ensuing season. Then came a move to right, where Eaton rated as an elite defender — in terms of both his throwing arm and range — by measure of both major defensive ratings in 2016. The difference? In 2015, he rated as a three-to-four win player. Last year, he check in with about six WAR.

Clearly, the Nationals believe he’ll handle center capably enough, since that’s where he’s headed to open his tenure with his new club. But the fact that he has shown such capability in a corner spot also allows some flexibility moving forward. Werth’s contract is up this year, while Harper is slated for free agency after 2018. Importantly, the club managed to hang onto top prospect Victor Robles this winter; he could one day be a superstar in center, with Eaton lining up beside him.

They say you have to give value to get it, and that’s typically the case. Clearly, the Nationals did so here. But given the organization’s slate of quality veterans, it made sense to prioritize the near-term. And adding Eaton not only filled a need, but did so in a way that left the team with plenty of future value and won’t fill up much future payroll space — a heightened concern given the big guarantees made to Scherzer and Strasburg, the still-open question of Harper’s future, and the ongoing MASN television rights fees dispute that has forced the Nats to backload many of their major contracts.

Overview

There’s still a lot to like about the Nats as they try once again to break through with their long window of contention. But the questions never stop coming, and there’s a big one on the horizon with Harper. The team’s decision to make him a stunning arbitration raise hints that the pocketbooks could open up for a player who has been — and may be again — among the game’s best. As things stand, though, time’s a-wastin’ on winning while the phenom is in D.C., and the club will likely be aggressive in filling any needs that arise during the season.

So, how do you think the Nats handled the winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Royals’ 2016-17 offseason will, sadly, always be remembered for the stunning, untimely death of one of their most recognizable young talents: 25-year-old right-hander Yordano Ventura. In the wake of that tragedy, the Kansas City front office made several late additions to a now-retooled roster that will dedicate the 2017 season to the memory of a friend and teammate who was taken from the world far too soon.

Major League Signings

  • Jason Hammel, RHP: Two years, $16MM (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: Two years, $12MM (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Travis Wood, LHP: Two years, $12MM (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Total spend: $40MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Royals Depth Chart; Royals Payroll Info

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, all eyes were on a host of veteran Royals slated to hit free agency following the 2017 season. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar and Jarrod Dyson all finished up the 2016 campaign knowing that it was possibly the last time they’d all be together as teammates. General manager Dayton Moore spoke candidly early in the offseason and suggested that some payroll regression was likely in store, and Royals fans braced for the potential departures among the ranks of the team’s longstanding core.

And indeed, Moore subtracted some pieces, but perhaps not as many as Royals fans might’ve feared. Davis and Dyson found new homes following trades that sent them to the Cubs and Mariners, respectively. While Moore likely took no pleasure in parting with players who cemented themselves as Major Leaguers during their time with the Royals, the GM and his lieutenants were able to acquire a pair of controllable pieces in each one-for-one swap.

Jorge Soler

Davis netted former uber-prospect Jorge Soler, who has yet to break out but is still just 25 years of age. And Dyson’s blend of baserunning/defensive wizardry was right up Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto’s alley, prompting the Mariners to trade right-hander Nate Karns to Kansas City in exchange for one highly affordable year of Dyson. Though neither of the acquired assets has solidified himself as a big league contributor, each comes with four years of club control remaining. Acquiring eight years of MLB-ready talent, albeit unproven talent, in exchange for two players entering their contract years was a nice bit of work for the Kansas City front office (especially considering the trades also lowered the Royals’ 2017 payroll).

Another of those core Royals also resolved some of the uncertainty surrounding his status beyond the 2017 campaign, but Duffy did so in a drastically different manner when he signed a five-year extension that’ll guarantee him $65MM (more on that later). Now locked in as the clear top starter in the K.C. rotation, Duffy will be tasked with leading a new-look pitching staff this season.

In Karns, Jason Hammel and Travis Wood, Moore and his staff acquired a trio of arms to help round out the rotation. In the cases of Hammel and Wood, they did so by waiting out a surprisingly weak market to acquire both players at relatively bargain rates. Hammel’s $16MM price tag is especially surprising. Many pundits (we at MLBTR included) pegged him for a three-year deal in a thin market for starters after the Cubs made the then-curious decision to buy out his seemingly reasonable $12MM option for the 2017 season.

Wood spent the winter seeking an opportunity to reestablish himself as a starter, and but he’ll initially work out of the ’pen after Hammel and Karns claimed rotation spots behind Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Jason Vargas. That group doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing lineups, but each can be at least a serviceable arm, and the Royals’ large park and quality defense should compensate for some of the quintet’s shortcomings.

On the position-player side of the equation, the Royals didn’t have an overwhelming amount of work to do. Trading Dyson and watching Kendrys Morales depart created a need for a few additions, but the acquisition of Soler and Peter O’Brien in trades and the late signing of veteran Brandon Moss could well cover those departures. The trio of new additions won’t match the defensive excellence of Dyson in the outfield, but that group brings more to the table offensively.

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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Mike Trout continues to lead a team in transition as the Angels attempt to regroup following an injury-marred 2016 campaign.

Major League Signings

  • Luis Valbuena, 3B: two years, $15MM plus mutual option for 2019
  • Jesse Chavez, RHP: one year, $5.75MM plus incentives
  • Ben Revere, OF: one year, $4MM plus incentives
  • Andrew Bailey, RHP (re-signed): one year, $1M plus incentives
  • Total spend: $25.75MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Yusmeiro Petit, Bud Norris, John Lamb, Dustin Ackley, Eric Young Jr., Ryan LaMarre, Tony Sanchez

Extensions

  • Kole Calhoun, OF: three years, $26MM plus club option for 2020

Contract Options

Notable Losses

Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Bandy, Geovany Soto, Jhoulys Chacin, Johnny Giavotella, Gregorio Petit, Rafael Ortega, Tim Lincecum, Ji-Man Choi, A.J. Achter

Needs Addressed

In his second offseason with the Angels, GM Billy Eppler completed transactions at a furious pace. Many of them were much ado about little, as you might infer from the list above — the series of moves involving Blake Parker and Juan Graterol are telling, as is the fact that Eppler made trades involving two separate pitchers named Austin Adams. Gone were the Albert Pujols-type big splashes that defined previous Angels offseasons, despite the salary-clearing departures this winter of former star pitchers C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver. That isn’t to say, though, that Eppler didn’t take serious steps to improve his club. It’s more that his team had so many glaring holes that he had to make a number of small moves rather than one or two big ones.

The Angels’ first big offseason transaction helped define how the rest of their winter would go. The team entered the offseason needing to upgrade in their rotation and outfield, and at catcher and second base. Of those positions, the one that boasted the most free-agent talent was outfield, where Yoenis Cespedes, Dexter Fowler, Jose Bautista, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick, Carlos Gomez, Michael Saunders and many others were available.

Cameron MaybinRather than pursue any of those players, the Angels quickly traded for Cameron Maybin from the Tigers. The cost was minimal — the Angels gave up only Victor Alcantara, a hard-throwing but raw righty who probably profiles as a reliever in the long term.

Maybin looks like a bargain at the price of his $9MM option, which the Angels immediately exercised after trading for him — he batted .315/.383/.418 in 2016, a slash line that would fit well in just about any lineup. Beneath the surface, though, lies a .383 BABIP, a number that seems virtually certain to fall dramatically in 2017. Also, Maybin’s center field defense has declined as he’s aged. Defensively, he should be fine in left, where the Angels plan to use him, but his ground-ball-heavy offensive game seems unlikely to produce the power typically associated with that position.

The Angels also added Ben Revere, who provides Maybin with a left-handed complement and the Angels with some speed off the bench. Revere, alas, batted .217/.260/.300 for the Nationals last year. Revere’s own .234 BABIP looks ripe for positive regression, particularly as he’s recovered from an oblique injury that hindered him in 2016. Revere is also just 28 and would appear to be a useful bench player at the very least, particularly given his baserunning ability.

Revere has even less power than Maybin, though, and it’s hard to shake the impression the Angels missed an opportunity to add a middle-of-the-lineup bat, particularly given the way the offseason unfolded. They might well have been able to land a more potentially impactful player, or perhaps even two — Eric Thames, Steve Pearce, Matt Joyce and Saunders all come to mind — had they not acted so quickly to add Maybin, who ZiPS and Steamer both project will produce less than a win above replacement this year. There’s a bit of 20/20 hindsight involved in that assessment, but perhaps it should have been clear from the beginning there was plenty of talent available.

The Angels also acted decisively to upgrade their infield, seemingly killing one bird with two stones by acquiring both Danny Espinosa and Luis Valbuena. The Angels pounced after the Nationals’ acquisition of Adam Eaton relegated Espinosa to a bench role, and Espinosa subsequently expressed unhappiness with the situation. The Angels sent two fringe pitching prospects to Washington, and settled with Espinosa for $5.425MM for his final season before he becomes eligible for free agency. Espinosa’s offensive profile is unusual for a middle infielder — he hit 24 home runs last season, but struck out 29% of the time, leading to a .209 batting average that doesn’t figure to improve much in 2017. His defensive value still makes him a credible starter, albeit a below-average one; it’s no accident that the Nationals, a contending team, saw him as a bench piece.

Luis ValbuenaValbuena has primarily played third in the past several seasons, but with Espinosa at the keystone and Escobar at the hot corner, Valbuena will also likely play plenty of first base. Incumbent first baseman C.J. Cron is a righty and Valbuena is a lefty, but the pair will form somewhat of an odd semi-platoon, since Cron has batted a helpful .273/.317/.473 against righties in his short career (demonstrating reverse platoon splits that admittedly might well regress somewhat). Pujols had foot surgery in December that was set to sideline him for several months; although he now appears ready to go, that might have been a factor in the Angels’ pursuit of extra help for first base, since Cron could theoretically have replaced Pujols at DH with Valbuena playing first. And if Valbuena bats .260/.357/.459, as he did in 2016, his bat will play at any position.

Some negative regression seems likely there too, however, since 2016 was Valbuena’s best career offensive season. And chunk of Valbeuna’s value in past years has come from his ability to play a tougher spot on the diamond. As with the outfield, there were plenty of first basemen available on the free agent market, so there shouldn’t have been much need to pay $15MM to turn a good third baseman into one –although, of course, there’s something to be said for Valbuena’s versatility. Anyway, the Angels’ seeming infield logjam won’t be an issue for awhile, since Valbuena will miss the first month or so of the season after injuring his hamstring.

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