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Arbitration Projection Model

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018

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As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the seventh year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2018. The number in parentheses next to each player is his estimated Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2017 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement). The Super Two cutoff is 2.123.

Angels (11)

  • Martin Maldonado (5.156) – $2.8MM
  • Garrett Richards (5.148) – $7.0MM
  • Blake Wood (5.131) – $2.2MM
  • Matt Shoemaker (3.166) – $4.4MM
  • Tyler Skaggs (3.135) – $1.9MM
  • Blake Parker (3.036) – $1.7MM
  • Jose Alvarez (3.035) – $1.1MM
  • C.J. Cron (3.097) – $2.8MM
  • Cam Bedrosian (2.153) – $1.2MM
  • Andrew Heaney (2.150) – $800K
  • J.C. Ramirez (2.139) – $2.6MM

Astros (9)

  • Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
  • Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
  • Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
  • Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
  • George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
  • Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
  • Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
  • Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
  • Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM

Athletics (8)

  • Chris Hatcher (4.146) – $2.2MM
  • Khris Davis (4.104) – $11.1MM
  • Liam Hendriks (4.038) – $1.9MM
  • Marcus Semien (3.118) – $3.2MM
  • Josh Phegley (3.114) – $1.1MM
  • Blake Treinen (3.065) – $2.3MM
  • Jake Smolinski (3.016) – $700K
  • Kendall Graveman (3.014) – $2.6MM

Blue Jays (8)

  • Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
  • Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
  • Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
  • Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
  • Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
  • Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
  • Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
  • Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
  • Dominic Leone (2.123) – $1.2MM

Braves (5)

  • Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) – $3.7MM
  • Chase Whitley (3.099) – $1.0MM
  • Sam Freeman (3.066) – $1.2MM
  • Dan Winkler (3.000) – $800K
  • Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) – $2.7MM

Brewers (6)

  • Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
  • Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
  • Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
  • Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
  • Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
  • Corey Knebel (2.151) – $$4.1MM

Cardinals (4)

  • Marcell Ozuna (4.124) – $10.9MM
  • Michael Wacha (4.062) – $5.9MM
  • Tyler Lyons (3.070) – $1.3MM
  • Randal Grichuk (3.033) – $2.8MM

Cubs (6)

  • Justin Wilson (5.035) – $4.3MM
  • Justin Grimm (4.153) – $2.4MM
  • Kyle Hendricks (3.081) – $4.9MM
  • Tommy La Stella (3.057) – $1.0MM
  • Kris Bryant (2.171) – $8.9MM
  • Addison Russell (2.167) – $2.3MM

Diamondbacks (13)

  • Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
  • Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
  • A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
  • Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
  • Brad Boxberger (4.109) – $1.9MM
  • Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
  • Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
  • Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
  • David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
  • Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
  • Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
  • Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
  • Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM

Dodgers (8)

  • Yasmani Grandal (5.115) – $7.7MM
  • Alex Wood (4.123) – $6.4MM
  • Tony Cingrani (4.088) – $2.2MM
  • Josh Fields (4.083) – $2.2MM
  • Pedro Baez (3.059) – $1.5MM
  • Enrique Hernandez (3.054) – $1.3MM
  • Joc Pederson (3.028) – $2.0MM
  • Yimi Garcia (3.004) – $700K

Giants (5)

  • Will Smith (4.155) – $2.5MM
  • Cory Gearrin (4.136) – $1.6MM
  • Sam Dyson (3.142) – $4.6MM
  • Joe Panik (3.100) – $3.5MM
  • Hunter Strickland (2.163) – $1.7MM

Indians (7)

  • Lonnie Chisenhall (5.158) – $5.8MM
  • Zach McAllister (5.077) – $2.4MM
  • Cody Allen (5.076) – $10.8MM
  • Dan Otero (4.124) – $1.4MM
  • Danny Salazar (3.162) – $5.2MM
  • Trevor Bauer (3.158) – $7.7MM
  • Abraham Almonte (3.052) – $1.1MM

Mariners (7)

  • David Phelps (5.156) – $5.8MM
  • Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (4.158) – $4.7MM
  • Nick Vincent (4.067) – $2.7MM
  • Mike Zunino (3.165) – $3.2MM
  • James Paxton (3.151) – $5.6MM
  • Mike Morin (3.030) – $700K

Marlins (5)

  • Derek Dietrich (3.151) – $3.2MM
  • Dan Straily (3.126) – $4.6MM
  • Justin Bour (3.064) – $3.5MM
  • Miguel Rojas (3.043) – $1.1MM
  • J.T. Realmuto (3.038) – $4.2MM

Mets (9)

  • Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
  • A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
  • Jeurys Familia (5.023) – $7.4MM
  • Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
  • Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
  • Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
  • Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
  • Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
  • Hansel Robles (2.129) – $1.0MM

Nationals (3)

  • Anthony Rendon (4.130) – $11.5MM
  • Tanner Roark (4.055) – $7.5MM
  • Michael Taylor (3.010) – $2.3MM

Orioles (7)

  • Zach Britton (5.158) – $12.2MM
  • Brad Brach (5.063) – $5.2MM
  • Manny Machado (5.056) – $17.3MM
  • Jonathan Schoop (4.027) – $9.1MM
  • Kevin Gausman (3.151) – $6.8MM
  • Caleb Joseph (3.145) – $1.4MM
  • Tim Beckham (3.134) – $3.1MM

Padres (7)

  • Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
  • Brad Hand (4.092) – $3.8MM
  • Carter Capps (4.133) – $1.3MM
  • Robbie Erlin (3.078) – $700K
  • Kirby Yates (3.021) – $1.1MM
  • Cory Spangenberg (3.016) – $2.0MM
  • Matt Szczur (2.134) – $800K

Phillies (4)

  • Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
  • Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
  • Luis Garcia (3.006) – $1.4MM
  • Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM

Pirates (4)

  • Jordy Mercer (5.095) – $6.5MM
  • George Kontos (4.171) – $2.7MM
  • Gerrit Cole (4.111) – $7.5MM
  • Felipe Rivero (2.162) – $3.1MM

Rangers (4)

  • Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
  • Jurickson Profar (3.165) – $1.1MM
  • Keone Kela (3.000) – $1.2MM
  • Ryan Rua (2.129) – $900K

Rays (9)

  • Adeiny Hechavarria (5.060) – $5.0MM
  • Dan Jennings (4.171) – $2.5MM
  • Corey Dickerson (4.101) – $6.4MM
  • Brad Miller (4.094) – $4.4MM
  • Jake Odorizzi (4.042) – $6.5MM
  • Jesus Sucre (3.137) – $1.3MM
  • Alex Colome (3.118) – $5.5MM
  • Steven Souza (3.072) – $3.6MM
  • Matt Duffy (3.059) – $900K

Red Sox (13)

  • Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM
  • Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM
  • Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM
  • Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM
  • Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM
  • Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM
  • Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM
  • Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM
  • Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM
  • Brandon Workman (3.115) – $900K
  • Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM
  • Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM

Reds (6)

  • Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
  • Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
  • Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
  • Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
  • Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM

Rockies (5)

  • DJ LeMahieu (5.128) – $8.8MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (5.102) – $13.4MM
  • Chad Bettis (3.096) – $1.5MM
  • Chris Rusin (3.092) – $1.4MM
  • Zach Rosscup (2.164) – $600K

Royals (3)

  • Kelvin Herrera (5.157) – $8.3MM
  • Brandon Maurer (4.089) – $3.8MM
  • Nate Karns (3.033) – $1.4MM
  • Jorge Soler (2.143) – $1.1MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration.  Otherwise, contract calls for $4MM each season from 2018-20.

Tigers (6)

  • Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
  • Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
  • Nick Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
  • Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
  • James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
  • Blaine Hardy (2.130) – $800K

Twins (7)

  • Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
  • Kyle Gibson (4.039) – $5.3MM
  • Ryan Pressly (4.039) – $1.6MM
  • Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
  • Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
  • Trevor May (3.051) – $600K

White Sox (7)

  • Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM
  • Luis Avilan (4.146) – $2.3MM
  • Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM
  • Danny Farquhar (3.135) – $1.5MM
  • Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM
  • Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM
  • Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM

Yankees (8)

  • Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
  • Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
  • Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
  • Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
  • Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
  • Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
  • Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve (2.167) – $900K

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2017

By | at

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017.  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official.  The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.

If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies.  A full post on Abreu can be found here.

Angels (5)

  • Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
  • Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
  • Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM
  • Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM
  • Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM

Astros (7)

  • Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM
  • Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
  • Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
  • Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
  • Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
  • Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
  • George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
  • Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM

Athletics (5)

  • Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM
  • Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM
  • Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM
  • Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM
  • Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM

Blue Jays (4)

  • Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
  • Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
  • Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
  • Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM

Braves (7)

  • Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM
  • Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM
  • Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K
  • Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM
  • Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K

Brewers (4)

  • Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
  • Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
  • Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
  • Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
  • Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM

Cardinals (5)

  • Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
  • Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
  • Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
  • Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM

Cubs (4)

  • Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
  • Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
  • Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
  • Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM

Diamondbacks (6)

  • Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM
  • Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM
  • Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM
  • Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM
  • Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM
  • Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM

Dodgers (7)

  • Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM
  • Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM
  • Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM
  • Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM
  • Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM
  • Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM
  • Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM

Giants (6)

  • Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM
  • Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K
  • George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM
  • Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM
  • Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM
  • Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K

Indians (8)

  • Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM
  • Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM
  • Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM
  • Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM
  • Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM
  • Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM
  • Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM
  • Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM

Mariners (9)

  • Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM
  • Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
  • Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
  • Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
  • Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM
  • Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
  • Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
  • James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
  • Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K

Marlins (6)

  • David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM
  • A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM
  • Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM
  • Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM
  • Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM

Mets (10)

  • Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
  • Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
  • Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
  • Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
  • Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
  • Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
  • Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
  • Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM

Nationals (5)

  • Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
  • Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
  • Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM
  • Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
  • Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM

Orioles (9)

  • Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
  • Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
  • Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
  • Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
  • Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
  • Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
  • T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K
  • Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
  • Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM

Padres (6)

  • Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM
  • Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM
  • Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM
  • Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM
  • Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM
  • Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM

Phillies (3)

  • Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
  • Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
  • Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM

Pirates (7)

  • Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM
  • Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM
  • Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM
  • Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM
  • Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM
  • Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM
  • Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM

Rangers (7)

  • Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
  • Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
  • Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
  • A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
  • Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
  • Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM
  • Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM

Rays (9)

  • Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
  • Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
  • Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
  • Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
  • Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
  • Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
  • Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
  • Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM

Red Sox (10)

  • Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
  • Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
  • Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
  • Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
  • Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
  • Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
  • Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
  • Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
  • Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM

Reds (4)

  • Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM
  • Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM
  • Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM
  • Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM

Rockies (5)

  • Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM
  • Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM
  • Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM
  • Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM

Royals (3)

  • Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
  • Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
  • Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM

Tigers (6)

  • Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
  • Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
  • Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
  • Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
  • Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
  • Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM

Twins (5)

  • Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
  • Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
  • Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
  • Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
  • Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

White Sox (9)

  • Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM
  • Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
  • Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
  • Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
  • Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
  • Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
  • Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K

Yankees (7)

  • Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
  • Adam Warren (4.036) – $2.3MM
  • Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
  • Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
  • Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
  • Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
  • Tommy Layne (2.144) – $1.2MM

Projected Super Two Cutoff

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OCTOBER 26: The precise cutoff will be 2.131 years, Dierkes tweets. That means that most of the players noted below will fall short of qualifying, with Kiermaier representing one of the last to sneak into the arb process.

OCTOBER 10: We just published this year’s arbitration projections for all 30 teams this morning, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes follows that up with a report (Twitter link) that the projected Super Two cutoff for this year’s class is expected to fall between two years, 127 days of MLB service time (2.127) and two years, 131 days (2.131). Players who qualify for “Super Two” designation — that is, the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — will be eligible for arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three that the rest of the league will qualify. That can have significant financial implications for both teams and players, and one needs only to look to this morning’s arbitration projections for proof of that point.

For instance, players such as David Peralta (2.120 years of service, $1.6MM projected salary), Rougned Odor (2.121, $4MM) and Dan Straily (2.126, $3.9MM) would fall a bit shy, as would Jesus Sucre ($600K) and Chase Whitley ($900K). In the case of a team like the Reds or Rangers, there’s already in the vicinity of $4MM at stake, and because future all future arbitration salaries are based on prior earnings, there’s a compounding effect at play as well. Super Two status also impacts extension talks, which the Rangers have reportedly explored with Odor’s camp. With Odor likely to fall shy of Super Two status, the Rangers needn’t offer quite as much as they would have had to were Odor slated to be arbitration-eligible four times, as his year-to-year earnings will be a bit lesser with only three trips through the arbitration process.

Meanwhile, players like Brett Oberholtzer (2.127, $1MM) and Kevin Kiermaier (2.131, $2.1MM) will see their earnings increase at least twofold in 2017 (if the lower end of the spectrum holds true, with regards to Oberholtzer). In Kiermaier’s case, he’d stand to roughly quadruple his salary by virtue of qualifying as a Super Two player.

This year’s cutoff, then, will fall pretty closely in line with the cutoffs we’ve seen over the past two years:

  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Last year’s Super Two class took players like Kole Calhoun ($3.4MM), Didi Gregorius ($2.425MM), Anthony Rendon ($2.8MM) and, most notably, Nolan Arenado ($5MM), and jump-started their earning power in significant fashion. As can be seen in the above-linked projections, the largest beneficiaries of this year’s Super Two cutoff figure to be George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Danny Salazar, Matt Shoemaker, Sam Dyson and Marcus Stroman — each of whom is projected to take home north of $3.5MM in his first of what will now be four trips through arbitration eligibility.

156 Players File For Salary Arbitration

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The Major League Baseball Players Association announced today that 156 players have filed for salary arbitration. Players and teams will formally exchange arbitration figures on Friday, and in the five to six weeks that follow, dozens of agreements will be reached. Players and teams that are unable to find a middle ground will head to arbitration hearings in mid to late February, and, on the flip-side of things, some will hammer out multi-year deals in order to avoid the process in the future (possibly even extending the contract into would-be free agent years).

We’re keeping track of all of the arbitration settlements in the 2016 version of MLBTR’s annual Arbitration Tracker (bear in mind that some agreements have already happened) and will continue to do so as each case is resolved, whether by one-year agreement, multi-year deal or hearing. Here’s a team-by-team rundown of the players that filed for arbitration, with each player’s service time in parenthesis in addition to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected salary for each.

AL West

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Mariners

Rangers

AL Central

Indians

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

AL East

Blue Jays

Orioles

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

NL West

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Padres

Rockies

NL Central

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Pirates

Reds

NL East

Braves

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Phillies

For more information on the arbitration process in general, readers can refer to our breakdown of Arbitration Basics. For those who wish to garner more insight into Swartz’s projection model, check out his explanation of the model and its limitations as well as MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series, in which Swartz examines some unique cases that might leave the model more susceptible to inaccuracy than a standard arbitration case. 

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2016

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As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work.  You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet!  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known.  We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here.  In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.

Angels (6)

  • Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM
  • Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM
  • Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM
  • Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM
  • Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM
  • Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM

Astros (8)

  • Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM
  • Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM
  • Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM
  • Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM
  • Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM
  • Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM
  • Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K
  • Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM

Athletics (15)

  • Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM
  • Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM
  • Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM
  • Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM
  • Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM
  • Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM
  • Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM
  • Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM
  • Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM
  • Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM
  • Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM
  • Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K
  • Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM
  • A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K
  • Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K

Blue Jays (9)

  • Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
  • Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
  • Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
  • Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
  • Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
  • Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
  • Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
  • Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
  • Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K

Braves (5)

  • Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM
  • Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K
  • Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM
  • Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K

Brewers (3)

  • Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM
  • Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM
  • Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM

Cardinals (7)

  • Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
  • Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
  • Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
  • Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
  • Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
  • Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
  • Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM

Cubs (8)

  • Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
  • Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
  • Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
  • Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
  • Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM
  • Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM
  • Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
  • Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM

Diamondbacks (8)

  • Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM
  • Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.
  • Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K
  • Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM
  • Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM
  • Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM
  • Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM
  • A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM

Dodgers (9)

  • A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
  • Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
  • Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
  • Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
  • Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
  • Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
  • Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
  • Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
  • Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K

Giants (4)

  • Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
  • Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
  • Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
  • George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM

Indians (7)

  • Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
  • Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
  • Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
  • Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
  • Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
  • Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
  • Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K

Mariners (3)

  • Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM
  • Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM
  • Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM
  • Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*

Marlins (9)

  • Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
  • Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
  • David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
  • Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
  • A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
  • Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
  • Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
  • Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
  • Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM

Mets (8)

  • Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
  • Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
  • Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
  • Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
  • Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
  • Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K

Nationals (9)

  • Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM
  • Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM
  • Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM
  • Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM
  • Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM
  • Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM
  • Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM
  • Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM

Orioles (10)

  • Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM
  • Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K
  • Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K
  • Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM
  • Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM
  • Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM
  • Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM
  • Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM
  • Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM
  • Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM
  • David Lough (2.149) – $800K

Padres (8)

  • Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
  • Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
  • Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection;  has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
  • Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
  • Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
  • Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
  • Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
  • Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM

Phillies (4)

  • Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM
  • Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM
  • Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM
  • Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM

Pirates (9)

  • Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM
  • Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM
  • Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM
  • Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM
  • Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM
  • Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM
  • Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM
  • Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM
  • Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM

Rangers (10)

  • Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM
  • Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM
  • Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM
  • Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM
  • Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K
  • Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM
  • Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM
  • Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K
  • Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K

Rays (11)

  • Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM
  • Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM
  • Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
  • Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
  • Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
  • Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
  • J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
  • Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
  • Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
  • Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
  • Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM

Red Sox (5)

  • Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM
  • Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K
  • Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM
  • Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM
  • Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K

Reds (4)

  • Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM
  • Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM
  • Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM
  • J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM

Rockies (9)

  • John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM
  • Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM
  • Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM
  • Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM
  • DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM
  • Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM
  • Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM
  • Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM

Royals (8)

  • Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM
  • Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM
  • Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM
  • Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM
  • Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM
  • Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM
  • Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM
  • Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM

Tigers (5)

  • Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
  • Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
  • J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
  • Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
  • Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM

Twins (6)

  • Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM
  • Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM
  • Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM
  • Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM
  • Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM
  • Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM

White Sox (5)

  • Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
  • Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
  • Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
  • Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
  • Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
  • Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K

Yankees (7)

  • Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
  • Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
  • Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
  • Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
  • Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
  • Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
  • Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM

*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.

MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model

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Salaries for arbitration eligible players eclipsed $1 billion in 2015, making the arbitration process more important to team building than ever. At MLB Trade Rumors, we are entering our fifth year of modeling arbitration salaries and have improved the model again for the 2015-16 offseason.

Being able to accurately predict salaries is crucial for teams, and it’s important for MLBTR readers who want to understand the rationale behind teams’ decision-making processes. Teams typically sign free agents before reaching agreements with arbitration eligible players, so budgeting effectively requires a reasonable estimate of how much they will spend on the complete roster once arbitration raises are determined.

Forecasting arbitration salaries is also important for signing young players to long-term deals. Teams have increasingly used such deals to achieve payroll certainty and to avoid the risk of crippling free agent contracts. As a result, teams have used arbitration forecasts many years into the future to determine appropriate spending levels on extensions. Understanding the arbitration process in general is also important for teams seeking to find inefficiencies. Teams succeed by finding bargains on the free agent market, but finding players who will be bargains in the arbitration process is helpful as well.

The basic structure of the arbitration model to be used for this year is the same as in past years. Players are compared to recent players who went through the arbitration process, who played similar positions and who had similar MLB service time. Typically, players qualify for arbitration upon reaching three full years of Major League service time. The top 22 percent of players from the group that has between two and three years of service time also becomes eligible. These players are designated as “Super Two” players and can be arbitration eligible four times before reaching free agency.

A player’s first arbitration salary is based primarily on his most recent season, but on overall career statistics are considered as well. Beyond the first year, players receive raises based more heavily on the most recent season’s performance. Historical performance is only factored in to the extent that it affected a player’s most recent salary. While that may seem counter-intuitive, those familiar with the process have confirmed that this is usually the case in actual arbitration hearings.

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

Hitters are typically evaluated using batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases and plate appearances. There are some positional adjustments, but typically the added defensive value of a shortstop relative to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration hearings as it is on the free agent market. Hitters also can receive larger arbitration awards if they have unique accomplishments, such as winning an MVP award. Pitchers typically are evaluated using innings pitched and earned run average. Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds. Unique accomplishments, such as Cy Young Awards, matter for pitchers as well.

In addition to factoring these statistics into the process, the arbitration model also accounts for salary inflation—players are expected to receive more money in 2016 for the same performance than they would have in 2015. Precedents are also important, as we learned when we developed the “Kimbrel Rule.” The Kimbrel Rule limits the maximum margin for a player to exceed the previous record for his player type to $1MM (and similarly, the maximum raise for a non-first time eligible player is $1MM greater than the previous record raise as well). This was developed because Craig Kimbrel’s eye-popping save and ERA numbers entering his first year of arbitration would have led to a projected salary that was unrealistically high. Historically speaking, players do not typically break arbitration records by much greater magnitudes than $1MM.

The arbitration model we use at MLB Trade Rumors has improved over the years. The typical average error is generally around $300K or slightly below, but it does vary significantly based on how many big misses there were in a given year. The more useful metric that we track is the number of players who ultimately earned a salary within 10% of our salary projection. This has steadily increased from 55% in 2012 to 65% in 2015 and hopefully will continue increasing going forward. We have added some other adjustments for this year’s model. Such bells and whistles usually increase predictive efficiency of the model but can hurt in some cases. As a result, our adjustments typically mimic the way that the arbitration process works.

An additional feature of our model at MLB Trade Rumors is that I also pen roughly ten articles each year on unique arbitration cases in a series we’ve previously titled Arbitration Breakdown. Within that series, I look at historical comps for the players in question to determine whether the model is likely to be accurate in a particular case. I personally look forward to not having to write about the challenges of predicting David Price’s salaries anymore, now that he is a free agent. This Price-less set of articles will be released in the coming months, while the actual forecasted salaries for every arbitration eligible player will appear on MLB Trade Rumors during the middle of this week.

Introducing The 2013 Arbitration Projections

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Twenty teams have officially finished their seasons and are already considering available free agents, which means they also have to consider whom they can afford. This involves predicting the salaries they will have to pay to arbitration-eligible players. Rather than having their salaries determined by the highest bid, their salaries are set to be determined by an arbitration panel. Of course, very few players actually ever make it in front of that panel, since teams and agents spend considerable resources trying to resolve their salaries in advance.

Last year, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes asked me if I thought I could put together a model that predicted arbitration salaries. I had studied free agent salaries, but I decided that I could probably do almost as well with arbitration salaries. It went better than expected: the model was within 10% of the actual salary for 55% of players who signed one-year deals, and was within $1MM for all but 4 of the 156 arbitration-eligible players.

Unlike free agents, whose salaries are determined by the highest bid among 30 teams with 30 different ways of predicting and valuing future performance, arbitration eligible players receive salaries based on the similarity between their past performance and the performances of other comparable players. A well-designed model can do a good job of sifting out which statistics are most important and predict salaries accordingly.

Last year’s model was strong, but there were still a number of players who were poorly projected. One category with which I struggled was breakout stars entering arbitration for the first time. Jordan Zimmermann received a salary of $2.3 million, above my projection of $1.8 million. Even though he only had 23 career starts in an injury-checkered past before going into 2011, his solid 3.18 ERA in 161 1/3 innings in 2011 seemed to matter more than his previous injuries. Another thing I learned in my projections for 2012 was that previous salary did not matter much for first-time eligible players. My biggest overestimates included projecting David Price at $7.8MM instead of his actual $4.35 million salary and Rick Porcello for $4.2MM instead of his actual $3.1MM, since I thought hefty Major League deals given to draft picks would give these players a leg up going into arbitration. This is not true, as I have since learned. I also missed big on some players who had strong rebound performances after being non-tendered the season before. The biggest miss was projecting Melky Cabrera’s 2012 salary; I only predicted a $4.4MM salary, instead of his $6MM earnings. It turns out that bouncing back after being non-tendered gives players like Cabrera a little extra room for raises, and such players are now projected for higher salaries in 2013.

I did a lot of work on improving pitcher projections for this year’s model. I originally included all pitchers into the same model, which gave them credit for wins, saves, and holds as they received them in each role. This was supposed to better incorporate swingmen and other pitchers with evolving roles, but now I have separate models for starters and relievers, which allows for more accuracy for everyone. In last year’s model, I ignored the importance of strikeouts for starters and had to introduce other measures to juice the salaries of elite starters. This year’s model incorporates elite starters much more smoothly. The starter/reliever distinction also gave me an opportunity to notice an important feature about arbitration — declining marginal returns to individual statistics. It turns out that the gap in earnings is much larger between pitchers with 170 innings and 200 innings than between pitchers with 200 innings and 230 innings, and that a guy with 30 saves out-earns a guy with 20 saves far more than a guy with 40 saves out-earns a guy with 30 saves.

In the coming weeks, we will present the projections for all 30 Major League teams’ arbitration-eligible players. Last year’s projections had a good foundation, but we believe this year’s will be even better. These can help teams and fans alike as they try to anticipate trades, extensions and non-tenders and determine how much money is available for free agents.

Looking Back At The 2012 Arbitration Projections

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This past offseason, we projected the salaries for 155 arbitration-eligible players who received one-year contracts. The results were significantly better than I expected. In my first article on the projections, I estimated that we would be within $700K for about half of players, but we actually were within $200K for half of players. Our projected salary was within 5% of actual salary for 29% of players, within 10% of actual salary for 55% of players, and within 20% of actual salary for 81% of players. In fact, there were only four players who received a salary that was more than $1MM away from their projected salary.

However, within these aggregate numbers are a mixture of many very accurate projections, and quite a few that were way off. Pitchers were either very easy to project or very hard to project. When pitchers matched up very well with historical comparables, they fit squarely into categories. However, some pitchers proved to be a new breed with weak sets of comparables. As a result, of the closest ten projections, nine were pitchers, but of the worst ten projections, eight were pitchers.

When there was more precedence for a player’s performance, projecting his salary was much easier. The reason that so many relief pitchers were among the best projections was that they have very defined roles, and they are paid according to their role. Closers, set-up men, middle relievers, and long relievers all tend to get similar salaries as other such relievers in their service class and role have received in the past. Our projections were within $25K of actual salaries for relievers such as Craig Breslow, Brad Ziegler, Daniel Bard, Bill Bray, Edward Mujica, and Burke Badenhop.  Each of these guys had defined roles and matched up nicely with historical comparables in similar roles.

Salaries are also very predictable for players who miss all or most of the previous season. These players almost never get big raises, and almost no players ever get pay cuts—so these are often players who get the same salary as the previous season. So, this year it wasn’t surprising when Manny Parra and Dallas Braden were rewarded another go around at their 2011 salaries of $1.2MM and $3.35MM. Next year, it won’t be surprising when Joey Devine and Brian Wilson get repeats of their 2012 salaries (if they are tendered contracts) after coming back from Tommy John Surgery.

Defined back-up hitters’ salaries can be pretty predictable as well. As with relievers, players with roles that are comparable to several other players in recent history make for quick agreements between players and teams. Jeff Baker, Emmanuel Burriss, Wilson Valdez, and Chris Denorfia all had salaries within $35K of our projected estimates.

Not all projections were so easy. One subgroup of pitchers where we may have overestimated salaries is swingmen, or pitchers who were converted from reliever to starter, or vice versa, during the season. Andrew Miller only received $1.04MM despite a $1.6MM projection, and Jesse Litsch received $975K after we estimated $1.3MM. There may be room for improvement by correctly modeling pitchers like these going forward. Broken service time can really take a chunk out of a player's salary too, especially if it’s in an atypical way. Also somewhat of a swingman, Jerome Williams settled for $800K after being projected for $1.4MM.

Two of our four biggest misses came on pitchers who were eligible for arbitration for the first time, but were coming off large salaries they received as part of a Major League contract signed as amateur. These pitchers are Rick Porcello, for whom we overestimated his expected salary by $1.1MM, and David Price, for whom we overestimated his salary by $2.55MM.

Porcello was an interesting case because his numbers were pretty standard for a healthy, solid, but not elite, starting pitcher. Pitchers like those typically get salaries in the $3.0-3.5MM range, so Porcello’s salary wasn’t surprising. However, he already earned $1.536MM in 2011 as part of his original contract signed out of high school, so we projected him for $4.2MM. His 2011 salary seems to have been irrelevant in the discussion about his 2012 salary.

Price was coming off a $1.25MM salary in 2011, and with a 19-win season in 2010 and 224.1 IP in 2011, he seemed primed to get a nice raise. However, as I attempted to model the effect of his 2011 salary, I overshot. It seems like Price may have given in a little early in accepting a $4.35MM deal, though, because Tim Lincecum was the only pitcher in the previous five years before Price with a career ERA under 3.70 (Price’s was 3.38), at least 40 career wins (Price had 41), and over 200 IP in his platform season (Price had 224.1). Jered Weaver was given $4.265MM, the largest one-year deal for a starting pitcher his first time through arbitration in that timespan, and he had a career ERA that was 0.34 higher than Price had, while having fewer innings, though Weaver did have more wins (51) than Price. However, it seems reasonable to guess that Price should have landed closer to Weaver than to Lincecum. I will look for ways to better incorporate pre-arbitration salaries going forward.

The most surprising big miss was Melky Cabrera. We expected that he would receive a nice raise from $1.25MM to $4.4MM in 2012. That would have been a raise as high as all but 14 position players over the previous five years. However, Melky Cabrera and the Giants agreed on a $6MM salary for 2012. There were only six position players to get raises that large in the last five years. They were Jose Bautista in 2011, Josh Hamilton in 2011, Carlos Pena in 2008, Matt Holliday in 2008, Ryan Howard in 2009, and Rickie Weeks in 2011. Those players had anywhere from 29 to 54 home runs in their platform year; Cabrera only had 18. Only Rickie Weeks (a leadoff hitter) had fewer than 121 RBI. Cabrera had 87. Among the players who had raises larger than our estimated $3.15MM estimate, none of them had more than 25 home runs either. In this case, I think this one might just be a case of the Giants were out-bargained by the aces at ACES. I’m not sure that he would have gotten a raise anywhere near that large if the Giants had held out and taken Cabrera’s case to a hearing (however, the sides wouldn't necessarily have argued 'raise' for Cabrera and others with broken service time).

Overall, the first year of these projections went very well. However, the projections were not so perfect that there is not still some room for improvement. Going forward, we will make sure to take a better look at swingmen, and other pitchers who had multiple roles in their platform season. We will also see if there is some way to tell when a large salary before arbitration is going to affect a player’s salary when he is eligible for the first time. There also may be a way to find a class of hitters where projections are as cut and dry as they often are for relievers with defined roles, so we will look for this as well. As players are just starting to accumulate their statistics for the 2012 season, we are already preparing to evaluate what those statistics will mean for their bottom lines in 2013.

Pitchers’ Arbitration Salaries

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In the past couple days, I have been discussing some of the factors that play into arbitration salaries and the new model that I have developed for MLBTR to predict them. Yesterday, I discussed what gets a hitter paid. Today, we’ll look at pitchers.

One thing that advanced statistical analysis of pitchers has taught us is that luck, teammates, and opportunity play large roles in a pitcher’s success. A good defense can end rallies and convert a sure extra-base hit into an out, while a good offense can put you in the position to get a win or a save. The free agent market has clearly adjusted to this knowledge—Cliff Lee had just 12 wins and finished 21st in ERA in 2010. He still got $120MM as a free agent, because his peripherals indicated he was a better pitcher than that—his SIERA was 3rd in the league. This year, his ERA was 3rd in the league too and he got 17 wins, thanks to more support from his teammates. Even recent Cy Young Awards have gone to Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, and Tim Lincecum, who fell far short of the standard 20-win Cy Young Award winner. However, arbitration panels have not made these same adjustments. The statistics that matter to panels remain IP, W, and ERA for starting pitchers, and IP, ERA, saves and holds for relief pitchers.

Playing time is crucial for pitchers’ arbitration salaries, just as it was for hitters. Accumulating innings gets you a big raise, even with a mediocre season. Joe Saunders got a $1.8MM raise last year, with 203 1/3 IP despite a 4.47 ERA and a 9-17 record. This year, we project Mike Pelfrey to get a $1.9MM raise to about $5.8MM for his 193 2/3 IP, despite a 4.74 ERA and a 7-13 record. Both pitchers will get raises for bad performance, since IP reign supreme.

Wins are pretty important as well. Jorge de la Rosa had 16 wins in 2009, despite a 4.38 ERA, which got him a $3.6MM raise. Our model predicts that for each four wins a pitcher gets, he will receive about a 10% larger raise, even with all of his other statistics unchanged. For example, our model has Cole Hamels getting $14.0MM in arbitration this winter with a solid ERA but only 14 wins. On the last day of the season, Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel used Hamels as a reliever in the 5th inning with the hopes that he could back into his 15th win. It didn’t work, but our model says that if it had, he could have expected an extra $200K in arbitration with a little help from his teammates during his throw day.

Relievers get paid by role. An elite closer with a history of saves gets paid far more than a set-up man, who gets paid far more than a middle reliever, even with similar performances. Andrew Bailey is slotted for $3.5MM this winter, but turn his 24 saves into 24 holds and he’d only get $2.1MM with the same elite ERA of 2.07, even with his 51 career saves prior to 2011 still on his record. Take all those saves and holds away, and he’d get under $1.0M with 174 career IP of a 2.07 ERA. Tyler Clippard had 38 holds this year for the Nationals, which boosts him up to a $1.7MM salary estimate. Take away 33 of those 38 holds to make him a middle reliever, and he only projects to get $1.3MM.

Even more so than hitters, one of the best ways for a pitcher to woo an arbitration panel is to have good teammates and a manager that puts him in a position to accumulate the right statistics. He’ll get more wins, saves, and holds with an offense that puts him in front, and more IP with a lower ERA with a defense that turns hits into outs.

Hitters’ Arbitration Salaries

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Yesterday, I discussed the model that I developed for MLBTR to predict arbitration salaries. The model uses similar information to that which arbitration panels use to determine salaries, and generates an estimate for players that is very close to the actual salary the players earn. Today, I’ll talk a little bit about the salaries of hitters.

One of the most important determinants of a hitter's salary is playing time. For position players, this comes in the form of plate appearances. While it shouldn't be surprising that back-ups make less than regulars, position players who make it onto the field every day get paid more. For example, Hunter Pence got a $3.4MM raise last year for hitting .282 with 25 HR and 91 RBI, but with 658 PA. Adam LaRoche hit .270 with 25 HR and 85 RBI in 2009, but only got a $2.15MM raise for his 554 PA. This year, we predict Nelson Cruz only managing a $2.1MM raise despite 29 HR and 87 RBI, due to his 513 PA, while we have Hunter Pence getting a $4.2MM raise with 22 HR and 97 RBI, in part due to his excellent 658 PA. Getting onto the field matters to panels, both because you can accumulate bigger counting stat totals and because playing time is just important. Take Pablo Sandoval as another example. He has a career .307 batting average coming into his first year of arbitration, and has averaged over 20 HR per season. Our model projects him for just $3.2MM due to his 466 PA this season. Give him the same career rates of AVG, HR, RBI, and SB but with 650 PA in 2011, and he would get about $4.7MM.

Arbitration isn't fair. The one skill that really gets you paid is power—HR and RBI are far more important than other statistics. Knocking in runs matters, yet scoring them is not too important at all. In fact, once you factor in the AVG and SB that hitters do to put themselves in position to score, the actual runs scored doesn’t seem to matter much at all to arbitration panels. Even AVG and SB, however, pale in importance to almighty HR and RBI. Mike Morse had 95 RBI in the Nationals’ lineup this year, and combined with his .303 AVG and 31 HR, we have him coming in with a solid $3.9MM salary. Baseball-Reference.com estimated in August that Morse would have 50% more RBI if given the same RBI opportunities as Ryan Howard. What would Morse earn with 50% more RBI? Try $4.6MM. That’s $700K the Nationals will save on him simply by putting different guys in front of him in the lineup than the Phillies put in front of Howard.

Position does not seem to matter much either—while catchers certainly get paid a premium for their hard work behind the plate, middle infielders get paid about as well as corner infielders and outfielders. Arbitration, apparently, was built to put smiles on the faces of Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, who accumulate massive HR/RBI totals in potent lineups, but play easy positions. Quietly skilled players who get on base in front of them and play harder positions get paid far less for their contributions. Shortstop Elvis Andrus, for example, comes in at $2.9MM in our projections. Sabermetricians would estimate that his WAR would be about 20% lower if he produced similarly but played 1B instead of SS. However, his arbitration salary would only be about 2% lower.

You can estimate a player's salary to a certain extent using more accurate estimates of value like WAR, but a more sophisticated model that utilizes the same flawed information that arbitration panels use can pick up on these kinds of inefficiencies. Tomorrow, we’ll discuss how panels decide what to pay pitchers.

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