Arbitration Projection Model

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the ninth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2020.  Official service time is in parentheses next to each player. The Super Two cutoff has been confirmed as 2.115.  For players’ actual arbitration salaries, check out our tracker here.

Angels (9)

• Tommy La Stella (5.057) – $2.9MM
• Cam Bedrosian (4.153) – $2.8MM
• Andrew Heaney (4.150) – $5.0MM
• Hansel Robles (4.119) – $4.0MM
• Dylan Bundy (4.026) – $5.7MM
• Max Stassi (3.049) – $800K
• Brian Goodwin (3.019) – $2.1MM
• Keynan Middleton (2.150) – $800K
• Noe Ramirez (2.139) – $1.0MM

Astros (8)

• George Springer (5.166) – $21.4MM
• Brad Peacock (5.165) – $4.6MM
• Lance McCullers Jr. (4.140) – $4.1MM
• Carlos Correa (4.119) – $7.4MM
• Roberto Osuna (4.097) – $10.2MM
• Chris Devenski (4.000) – $2.0MM
• Joe Biagini (3.134) – $1.5MM
• Aledmys Diaz (3.100) – $2.4MM

Athletics (8)

• Liam Hendriks (5.164) – $5.5MM
• T.J. McFarland (5.164) – $2.1MM
• Marcus Semien (5.118) – $13.5MM
• Robbie Grossman (5.060) – $3.3MM
• Mark Canha (4.092) – $4.9MM
• Sean Manaea (3.157) – $3.5MM
• Chris Bassitt (3.130) – $2.8MM
• Chad Pinder (3.047) – $1.8MM

Blue Jays (4)

• Matt Shoemaker (5.166) – $3.8MM
• Ken Giles (5.113) – $8.4MM
• Anthony Bass (5.010) – $1.7MM
• Brandon Drury (3.165) – $2.5MM

Braves (7)

• Shane Greene (5.075) – $6.5MM
• Mike Foltynewicz (4.134) – $7.5MM
• Adam Duvall (3.151) – $3.8MM
• Dansby Swanson (3.047) – $3.3MM
• Luke Jackson (3.019) – $1.9MM
• Grant Dayton (3.007) – $800K
• Johan Camargo (2.137) – $1.6MM

Brewers (6)

• Corey Knebel (4.151) – $5.125MM
• Omar Narvaez (3.089) – $2.9MM
• Orlando Arcia (3.047) – $2.7MM
• Ben Gamel (3.029) – $1.6MM
• Brent Suter (2.161) – $900K
• Josh Hader (2.115) – $4.6MM

Cardinals (1)

• John Gant (3.004) – $1.4MM

Cubs (7)

• Kris Bryant (4.171) – $18.5MM
• Javier Baez (4.089) – $9.3MM
• Kyle Schwarber (4.086) – $8.0MM
• Willson Contreras (3.108) – $4.5MM
• Albert Almora (3.073) – $1.8MM
• Jharel Cotton (2.158) – $800K
• Kyle Ryan (2.139) – $1.1MM

Diamondbacks (7)

• David Peralta (5.120) – $8.8MM
• Nick Ahmed (5.054) – $7.0MM
• Jake Lamb (5.053) – $5.0MM
• Andrew Chafin (5.020) -$3.2MM
• Robbie Ray (5.007) – $10.8MM
• Archie Bradley (4.112) – $3.6MM
• Matt Andriese (4.071) – $1.4MM

Dodgers (12)

• Pedro Baez (5.059) – $3.3MM
• Enrique Hernandez (5.054) – $5.5MM
• Joc Pederson (5.028) – $8.5MM
• Chris Taylor (4.037) – $5.0MM
• Corey Seager (4.032) – $7.1MM
• Ross Stripling (3.115) – $2.3MM
• Austin Barnes (3.098) – $1.3MM
• Scott Alexander (3.097) – $1.0MM
• Max Muncy (3.027) – $4.6MM
• Cody Bellinger (2.160) – $11.6MM
• Julio Urias (2.117) – $1.7MM

Giants (3)

• Donovan Solano (4.081) – $1.2MM
• Alex Dickerson (3.120) – $1.2MM
• Wandy Peralta (2.168) – $800K

Indians (5)

• Sandy Leon (5.144) – $2.8MM
• Francisco Lindor (4.113) – $16.7MM
• Nick Wittgren (3.071) – $1.3MM
• Mike Clevinger (3.041) – $4.5MM
• Tyler Naquin (3.033) – $1.8MM

Mariners (3)

• Mallex Smith (3.125) – $2.7MM
• Sam Tuivailala (3.082) – $900K
• Mitch Haniger (3.048) – $3.0MM

Marlins (4)

• Jonathan Villar (5.113)  -$10.4MM
• Jose Urena (4.040) – $4.0MM
• Adam Conley (3.147) – $1.6MM
• Jesus Aguilar (3.082) – $2.5MM

Mets (9)

• Marcus Stroman (5.148) – $11.8MM
• Jake Marisnick (5.132) – $3.0MM
• Noah Syndergaard (4.149) – $9.9MM
• Steven Matz (4.099) – $5.3MM
• Michael Conforto (4.043) – $9.2MM
• Edwin Diaz (3.121) – $7.0MM
• Seth Lugo (3.082) – $1.9MM
• Brandon Nimmo (3.042) – $1.7MM
• Robert Gsellman (3.042) – $1.2MM

Nationals (6)

• Hunter Strickland (4.163) – $1.9MM
• Michael A. Taylor (4.129) – $3.25MM
• Roenis Elias (4.069) – $1.9MM
• Joe Ross (4.018) – $1.4MM
• Trea Turner (3.135) – $7.5MM
• Wilmer Difo (3.016) – $1.2MM

Orioles (5)

• Mychal Givens (4.069) – $3.2MM
• Hanser Alberto (3.085) – $1.9MM
• Miguel Castro (3.079) – $1.2MM
• Richard Bleier (3.074) – $1.1MM
• Trey Mancini (3.015) – $5.7MM

Padres (10)

• Jurickson Profar (5.165) – $5.8MM
• Kirby Yates (5.021) – $6.5MM
• Greg Garcia (4.083) – $1.7MM
• Zach Davies (4.020) – $5.0MM
• Austin Hedges (3.166) – $2.9MM
• Luis Perdomo (3.086) – $1.0MM
• Matt Strahm (3.064) – $1.5MM
• Manuel Margot (3.012) – $2.1MM
• Hunter Renfroe (2.165) – $3.4MM
• Dinelson Lamet (2.130) – $1.7MM

Phillies (7)

• J.T. Realmuto (5.038) – $10.3MM
• Jose Alvarez (5.035) – $3.0MM
• Vince Velasquez (4.086) – $3.9MM
• Hector Neris (4.068) – $4.7MM
• Adam Morgan (4.017) – $1.6MM
• Zach Eflin (3.018) – $3.0MM
• Andrew Knapp (3.000) – $800K

Pirates (9)

• Keone Kela (5.000) – $3.4MM
• Michael Feliz (3.169) – $1.2MM
• Jameson Taillon (3.110) – $2.3MM
• Chad Kuhl (3.079) – $1.4MM
• Adam Frazier (3.075) – $3.2MM
• Joe Musgrove (3.063) – $3.4MM
• Josh Bell (3.053) – $5.9MM
• Trevor Williams (3.027)- $3.0MM
• Erik Gonzalez (3.007) – $800K

Rangers (6)

• Danny Santana (4.140) – $3.9MM
• Delino Deshields (4.109) – $2.4MM
• Nomar Mazara (4.000) – $5.7MM
• Rafael Montero (3.138) – $900K
• Nick Goody (3.105) – $1.1MM
• Joey Gallo (3.103) – $4.0MM

Rays (6)

• Mike Zunino (5.165) – $4.9MM
• Tommy Pham (4.107) – $8.6MM
• Chaz Roe (4.094) – $2.2MM
• Oliver Drake (3.045) – $1.1MM
• Tyler Glasnow (2.158) – $1.9MM
• Daniel Robertson (2.134) – $1.1MM

Red Sox (7)

• Jackie Bradley Jr. (5.150) – $11MM
• Mookie Betts (5.070) – $27.7MM
• Brandon Workman (5.051) – $3.4MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez (4.130) – $9.5MM
• Matt Barnes (4.110) – $3.0MM
• Heath Hembree (4.106) – $1.6MM
• Andrew Benintendi (3.062) – $4.9MM

Reds (6)

• Trevor Bauer (5.158) – $18.6MM
• Anthony DeSclafani (5.062) – $5.2MM
• Michael Lorenzen (4.159) – $4.2MM
• Curt Casali (3.151) – $1.7MM
• Travis Jankowski (3.148) – $1.2MM
• Matt Bowman (3.021) – $900K

Rockies (7)

• Scott Oberg (4.063) – $2.0MM
• Jon Gray (4.062) – $5.6MM
• Trevor Story (4.000) – $11.5MM
• Tony Wolters (3.161) – $2.0MM
• Carlos Estevez (3.022) – $1.2MM
• David Dahl (2.162) – $3.0MM
• Kyle Freeland (2.144) – $2.4MM

Royals (2)

• Jorge Soler (4.143) – $11.2MM
• Mike Montgomery (4.089) – $2.9MM

Tigers (5)

• Daniel Norris (4.073) – $2.9MM
• Michael Fulmer (3.157) – $2.8MM
• Matthew Boyd (3.136) – $6.4MM
• Buck Farmer (3.083) – $1.1MM
• JaCoby Jones (2.125) – $1.4MM

Twins (9)

• Ehire Adrianza (5.131) – $1.9MM
• Trevor May (5.012) – $2.1MM
• Eddie Rosario (4.120) – $8.9MM
• Miguel Sano (4.066) – $5.9MM
• Byron Buxton (3.160) – $2.9MM
• Taylor Rogers (3.145) – $3.9MM
• Tyler Duffey (3.074) – $1.1MM
• Jose Berrios (3.044) – $5.4MM
• Matt Wisler (3.042) – $1.0MM

White Sox (5)

• Alex Colome (5.118) – $10.3MM
• James McCann (5.028) – $4.9MM
• Leury Garcia (5.025) – $4.0MM
• Carlos Rodon (4.168) – $4.5MM
• Evan Marshall (3.090) – $1.3MM

Yankees (9)

• James Paxton (5.151) – $12.9MM
• Tommy Kahnle (4.131) – $3.0MM
• Gary Sanchez (3.086) – $5.6MM
• Aaron Judge (3.051) – $6.4MM
• Chad Green (3.050) – $1.4MM
• Jordan Montgomery (2.153) – $1.2MM
• Luis Cessa (2.131) – $1.1MM
• Gio Urshela (2.127) – $2.2MM
• Jonathan Holder (2.124) – $800K

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the eighth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2019. Official service time is in parentheses next to each player.  The Super Two cutoff has been announced as 2.134.

Angels (8)

• Tyler Skaggs (4.135) – $3.6MM
• Andrew Heaney (3.150) – $2.8MM
• JC Ramirez (3.139) – $1.9MM
• Luis Garcia (4.006) – $1.7MM
• Cam Bedrosian (3.153) – $1.7MM
• Nick Tropeano (3.068) – $1.6MM
• Hansel Robles (3.119) – $1.4MM
• Tommy La Stella (4.057) – $1.2MM

Astros (10)

• Gerrit Cole (5.111) – $13.1MM
• Roberto Osuna (3.097) – $6.5MM
• Collin McHugh (5.085) – $5.4MM
• Carlos Correa (3.119) – $5.1MM
• Lance McCullers (3.140) – $4.6MM
• Will Harris (5.102) – $3.6MM
• Ryan Pressly (5.039) – $3.1MM
• Brad Peacock (4.165) – $2.9MM
• Jake Marisnick (4.132) – $2.4MM
• Chris Devenski (3.000) – $1.4MM

Athletics (9)

• Khris Davis (5.104) – $18.1MM
• Marcus Semien (4.118) – $6.6MM
• Blake Treinen (4.065) – $5.8MM
• Sean Manaea (2.157) – $3.8MM
• Liam Hendriks (4.164) – $2.1MM – signed for $2.15MM
• Mark Canha (3.092) – $2.1MM
• Ryan Buchter (3.010) – $1.3MM
• Josh Phegley (4.087) – $1.2MM – signed for $1.075MM
• Ryan Dull (2.143) – $900K – signed for $860K

Blue Jays (9)

• Marcus Stroman (4.148) – $7.2MM
• Ken Giles (4.113) – $6.6MM
• Kevin Pillar (4.113) – $5.3MM
• Randal Grichuk (4.033) – $4.8MM
• Aaron Sanchez (4.069) – $3.8MM
• Devon Travis (3.163) – $2.4MM
• Ryan Tepera (3.008) – $1.7MM
• Brandon Drury (2.165) – $1.4MM
• Joe Biagini (2.134) – $1.0MM

Braves (8)

• Kevin Gausman (4.151) – $9.2MM
• Mike Foltynewicz (3.163) – $5.5MM
• Arodys Vizcaino (5.168) – $4.8MM
• Adam Duvall (3.096) – $3.1MM
• Dan Winkler (4.000) – $1.6MM
• Jonny Venters (5.159) – $1.5MM – signed for $2.25MM
• Sam Freeman (4.066) – $1.5MM
• Charlie Culberson (3.084) – $1.4MM

Brewers (10)

• Travis Shaw (3.088) – $5.1MM
• Corey Knebel (3.151) – $4.9MM
• Jimmy Nelson (4.107) – $3.7MM
• Hernan Perez (4.079) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.5MM
• Junior Guerra (2.155) – $2.7MM
• Zach Davies (3.020) – $2.4MM
• Domingo Santana (3.024) – $2.0MM
• Manny Piña (3.046) – $1.8MM
• Erik Kratz (4.156) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.2MM
• Tyler Saladino (3.053) – $1.0MM – signed for $887.5K

Cardinals (4)

• Marcell Ozuna (5.124) – $13.4MM
• Michael Wacha (5.062) – $6.6MM
• Dominic Leone (3.123) – $1.3MM
• Chasen Shreve (3.167) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K

Cubs (7)

• Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
• Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
• Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
• Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
• Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
• Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
• Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM

Diamondbacks (11)

• David Peralta (4.120) – $7.7MM
• Robbie Ray (4.007) – $6.1MM
• Taijuan Walker (4.142) – $4.825MM
• Jake Lamb (4.053) – $4.7MM
• Steven Souza Jr. (4.072) – $4.0MM
• Nick Ahmed (4.054) – $3.1MM
• Archie Bradley (3.112) – $2.0MM
• Andrew Chafin (4.020) – $1.8MM
• T.J. McFarland (4.164) – $1.4MM
• Matt Andriese (3.071) – $1.1MM
• John Ryan Murphy (3.043) – $1.1MM

Dodgers (10)

• Joc Pederson (4.028) – $4.3MM
• Enrique Hernandez (4.054) – $3.2MM
• Chris Taylor (3.037) – $3.2MM
• Josh Fields (5.083) – $2.8MM
• Tony Cingrani (5.088) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.65MM
• Corey Seager (3.032) – $2.6MM
• Pedro Baez (4.059) – $1.8MM
• Yimi Garcia (3.149) – $900K

Giants (3)

• Sam Dyson (4.142) – $5.4MM – signed for $5MM
• Joe Panik (4.100) – $4.2MM – signed for $3.8MM
• Will Smith (5.155) – $4.1MM

Indians (7)

• Trevor Bauer (4.158) – $11.6MM
• Francisco Lindor (3.113) – $10.2MM
• Danny Salazar (4.162) – $5.0MM – signed for $4.5MM
• Leonys Martin (5.161) – $2.8MM – signed for $3MM
• Neil Ramirez (4.001) – $1.3MM – signed for $1.0MM
• Cody Anderson (3.017) – $900K
• Nick Goody (2.160) – $700K – signed for $675K

Mariners (1)

• Roenis Elias (3.069) – $1.0MM

Marlins (5)

• J.T. Realmuto (4.038) – $6.1MM
• Dan Straily (4.126) – $4.8MM
• Jose Urena (3.040) – $3.6MM
• Miguel Rojas (4.043) – $2.6MM
• Adam Conley (2.147) – $1.3MM

Mets (7)

• Jacob deGrom (4.139) – $12.9MM
• Noah Syndergaard (3.149) – $5.9MM
• Zack Wheeler (5.098) – $5.3MM
• Michael Conforto (3.043) – $4.4MM
• Travis d’Arnaud (5.044) – $3.7MM
• Steven Matz (3.099) – $3.0MM
• Kevin Plawecki (2.167) – $1.3MM

Nationals (7)

• Anthony Rendon (5.130) – $17.6MM
• Tanner Roark (5.055) – $9.8MM
• Trea Turner (2.135) – $5.3MM
• Michael Taylor (4.010) – $3.2MM
• Kyle Barraclough (3.059) – $1.9MM
• Joe Ross (3.067) – $1.5MM
• Sammy Solis (3.061) – $900K – signed for $850K

Orioles (3)

• Jonathan Villar (4.113) – $4.4MM
• Dylan Bundy (3.026) – $3.0MM
• Mychal Givens (3.069) – $2.0MM

Padres (6)

• Kirby Yates (4.021) – $3.0MM
• Austin Hedges (2.166) – $1.8MM
• Travis Jankowski (2.169) – $1.4MM
• Bryan Mitchell (3.049) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K
• Robbie Erlin (4.078) – $1.1MM
• Greg Garcia (3.083) – $900K – signed for $910K

Phillies (9)

• Cesar Hernandez (4.154) – $8.9MM
• Aaron Nola (3.076) – $6.6MM
• Maikel Franco (3.170) – $5.1MM
• Vince Velasquez (3.086) – $2.6MM
• Hector Neris (3.068) – $2.0MM
• Jose Alvarez (4.035) – $1.7MM
• Jerad Eickhoff (3.045) – $1.7MM
• Aaron Altherr (3.028) – $1.6MM
• Adam Morgan (3.017) – $1.1MM

Pirates (3)

• Corey Dickerson (5.101) – $8.4MM
• Keone Kela (4.000) – $3.2MM
• Michael Feliz (3.026) – $900K – signed for $850K

Rangers (4)

• Nomar Mazara (3.000) – $3.7MM
• Jurickson Profar (4.165) – $3.4MM
• Delino DeShields Jr. (3.116) – $1.9MM
• Alex Claudio (3.114) – $1.3MM

Rays (4)

• Mike Zunino (4.165) – $4.2MM
• Tommy Pham (3.107) – $4.0MM
• Matt Duffy (4.059) – $2.6MM
• Chaz Roe (3.094) – $1.4MM

Red Sox (12)

• Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
• Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
• Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
• Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM – signed for $1.75MM
• Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
• Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
• Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
• Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
• Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
• Blake Swihart (2.164) –  $1.1MM

Reds (5)

• Yasiel Puig (5.102) – $11.3MM
• Scooter Gennett (5.071) – $10.7MM
• Alex Wood (5.123) – $9.0MM
• Jose Peraza (2.141) – $3.6MM
• Anthony Desclafani (4.062) – $2.1MM
• Michael Lorenzen (3.159) – $1.9MM
• Curt Casali (2.151) – $1.3MM

Rockies (8)

• Nolan Arenado (5.155) – $26.1MM
• Trevor Story (3.000) – $6.4MM
• Chad Bettis (4.096) – $3.2MM
• Jon Gray (3.062) – $3.2MM
• Tyler Anderson (3.065) – $2.9MM
• Chris Rusin (4.092) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.6875MM
• Scott Oberg (3.063) – $1.2MM
• Tony Wolters (2.161) – $1.1MM

Royals (3)

• Jesse Hahn (3.067) – $1.7MM – signed for $800K
• Cheslor Cuthbert (3.030) – $1.1MM – signed for $850K
• Brian Flynn (3.086) – $1.0MM – signed for $800K

Tigers (6)

• Nicholas Castellanos (5.029) – $11.3MM
• Shane Greene (4.075) – $4.8MM
• Michael Fulmer (2.157) – $3.0MM
• Matthew Boyd (2.136) – $3.0MM
• Daniel Norris (3.073)  -$1.4MM
• Blaine Hardy (3.108) – $1.2MM

Twins (10)

• Jake Odorizzi (5.042) – $9.4MM
• Kyle Gibson (5.039) – $7.9MM
• C.J. Cron (4.097) – $5.2MM – signed for $4.8MM
• Eddie Rosario (3.120) – $5.0MM
• Max Kepler (2.152) – $3.2MM
• Miguel Sano (3.066) – $3.1MM
• Ehire Adrianza (4.131) – $1.8MM – signed for $1.3MM
• Taylor Rogers (2.145) – $1.6MM
• Byron Buxton (2.160) – $1.2MM
• Trevor May (4.012) – $1.1MM

White Sox (5)

• Jose Abreu (5.000) – $16MM
• Alex Colome (4.118) – $7.3MM
• Yolmer Sanchez (3.134) – $4.7MM
• Carlos Rodon (3.168) – $3.7MM
• Leury Garcia (4.025) – $1.9MM – signed for $1.55MM

Yankees (9)

• Didi Gregorius (5.159) – $12.4MM
• Sonny Gray (5.061) – $9.1MM
• Dellin Betances (5.078) – $6.4MM
• Aaron Hicks (5.041) – $6.2MM
• James Paxton (4.151) – $9.0MM
• Luis Severino (2.170) – $5.1MM
• Austin Romine (5.045) – $2.0MM
• Tommy Kahnle (3.131) – $1.5MM
• Greg Bird (3.053) – $1.5MM

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the seventh year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2018. The number in parentheses next to each player is his estimated Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2017 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement). The Super Two cutoff is 2.123.

Angels (11)

• Martin Maldonado (5.156) – $2.8MM
• Garrett Richards (5.148) – $7.0MM
• Blake Wood (5.131) – $2.2MM
• Matt Shoemaker (3.166) – $4.4MM
• Tyler Skaggs (3.135) – $1.9MM
• Blake Parker (3.036) – $1.7MM
• Jose Alvarez (3.035) – $1.1MM
• C.J. Cron (3.097) – $2.8MM
• Cam Bedrosian (2.153) – $1.2MM
• Andrew Heaney (2.150) – $800K
• J.C. Ramirez (2.139) – $2.6MM

Astros (9)

• Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
• Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
• Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
• Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
• George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
• Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
• Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
• Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
• Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM

Athletics (8)

• Chris Hatcher (4.146) – $2.2MM
• Khris Davis (4.104) – $11.1MM
• Liam Hendriks (4.038) – $1.9MM
• Marcus Semien (3.118) – $3.2MM
• Josh Phegley (3.114) – $1.1MM
• Blake Treinen (3.065) – $2.3MM
• Jake Smolinski (3.016) – $700K
• Kendall Graveman (3.014) – $2.6MM

Blue Jays (8)

• Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
• Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
• Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
• Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
• Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
• Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
• Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
• Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
• Dominic Leone (2.123) – $1.2MM

Braves (5)

• Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) – $3.7MM
• Chase Whitley (3.099) – $1.0MM
• Sam Freeman (3.066) – $1.2MM
• Dan Winkler (3.000) – $800K
• Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) – $2.7MM

Brewers (6)

• Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
• Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
• Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
• Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
• Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
• Corey Knebel (2.151) – $$4.1MM

Cardinals (4)

• Marcell Ozuna (4.124) – $10.9MM
• Michael Wacha (4.062) – $5.9MM
• Tyler Lyons (3.070) – $1.3MM
• Randal Grichuk (3.033) – $2.8MM

Cubs (6)

• Justin Wilson (5.035) – $4.3MM
• Justin Grimm (4.153) – $2.4MM
• Kyle Hendricks (3.081) – $4.9MM
• Tommy La Stella (3.057) – $1.0MM
• Kris Bryant (2.171) – $8.9MM
• Addison Russell (2.167) – $2.3MM

Diamondbacks (13)

• Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
• Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
• A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
• Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
• Brad Boxberger (4.109) – $1.9MM
• Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
• Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
• Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
• David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
• Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
• Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
• Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
• Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM

Dodgers (8)

• Yasmani Grandal (5.115) – $7.7MM
• Alex Wood (4.123) – $6.4MM
• Tony Cingrani (4.088) – $2.2MM
• Josh Fields (4.083) – $2.2MM
• Pedro Baez (3.059) – $1.5MM
• Enrique Hernandez (3.054) – $1.3MM
• Joc Pederson (3.028) – $2.0MM
• Yimi Garcia (3.004) – $700K

Giants (5)

• Will Smith (4.155) – $2.5MM
• Cory Gearrin (4.136) – $1.6MM
• Sam Dyson (3.142) – $4.6MM
• Joe Panik (3.100) – $3.5MM
• Hunter Strickland (2.163) – $1.7MM

Indians (7)

• Lonnie Chisenhall (5.158) – $5.8MM
• Zach McAllister (5.077) – $2.4MM
• Cody Allen (5.076) – $10.8MM
• Dan Otero (4.124) – $1.4MM
• Danny Salazar (3.162) – $5.2MM
• Trevor Bauer (3.158) – $7.7MM
• Abraham Almonte (3.052) – $1.1MM

Mariners (7)

• David Phelps (5.156) – $5.8MM
• Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM
• Erasmo Ramirez (4.158) – $4.7MM
• Nick Vincent (4.067) – $2.7MM
• Mike Zunino (3.165) – $3.2MM
• James Paxton (3.151) – $5.6MM
• Mike Morin (3.030) – $700K

Marlins (5)

• Derek Dietrich (3.151) – $3.2MM
• Dan Straily (3.126) – $4.6MM
• Justin Bour (3.064) – $3.5MM
• Miguel Rojas (3.043) – $1.1MM
• J.T. Realmuto (3.038) – $4.2MM

Mets (9)

• Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
• A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
• Jeurys Familia (5.023) – $7.4MM
• Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
• Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
• Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
• Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
• Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
• Hansel Robles (2.129) – $1.0MM

Nationals (3)

• Anthony Rendon (4.130) – $11.5MM
• Tanner Roark (4.055) – $7.5MM
• Michael Taylor (3.010) – $2.3MM

Orioles (7)

• Zach Britton (5.158) – $12.2MM
• Brad Brach (5.063) – $5.2MM
• Manny Machado (5.056) – $17.3MM
• Jonathan Schoop (4.027) – $9.1MM
• Kevin Gausman (3.151) – $6.8MM
• Caleb Joseph (3.145) – $1.4MM
• Tim Beckham (3.134) – $3.1MM

Padres (7)

• Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
• Brad Hand (4.092) – $3.8MM
• Carter Capps (4.133) – $1.3MM
• Robbie Erlin (3.078) – $700K
• Kirby Yates (3.021) – $1.1MM
• Cory Spangenberg (3.016) – $2.0MM
• Matt Szczur (2.134) – $800K

Phillies (4)

• Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
• Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
• Luis Garcia (3.006) – $1.4MM
• Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM

Pirates (4)

• Jordy Mercer (5.095) – $6.5MM
• George Kontos (4.171) – $2.7MM
• Gerrit Cole (4.111) – $7.5MM
• Felipe Rivero (2.162) – $3.1MM

Rangers (4)

• Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
• Jurickson Profar (3.165) – $1.1MM
• Keone Kela (3.000) – $1.2MM
• Ryan Rua (2.129) – $900K

Rays (9)

• Adeiny Hechavarria (5.060) – $5.0MM
• Dan Jennings (4.171) – $2.5MM
• Corey Dickerson (4.101) – $6.4MM
• Brad Miller (4.094) – $4.4MM
• Jake Odorizzi (4.042) – $6.5MM
• Jesus Sucre (3.137) – $1.3MM
• Alex Colome (3.118) – $5.5MM
• Steven Souza (3.072) – $3.6MM
• Matt Duffy (3.059) – $900K

Red Sox (13)

• Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM
• Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM
• Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM
• Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM
• Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM
• Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM
• Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM
• Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM
• Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM
• Brandon Workman (3.115) – $900K
• Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM
• Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM

Reds (6)

• Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
• Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
• Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
• Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
• Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM

Rockies (5)

• DJ LeMahieu (5.128) – $8.8MM
• Charlie Blackmon (5.102) – $13.4MM
• Chad Bettis (3.096) – $1.5MM
• Chris Rusin (3.092) – $1.4MM
• Zach Rosscup (2.164) – $600K

Royals (3)

• Kelvin Herrera (5.157) – $8.3MM
• Brandon Maurer (4.089) – $3.8MM
• Nate Karns (3.033) – $1.4MM
• Jorge Soler (2.143) – $1.1MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration.  Otherwise, contract calls for $4MM each season from 2018-20.

Tigers (6)

• Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
• Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
• Nick Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
• Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
• James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
• Blaine Hardy (2.130) – $800K

Twins (7)

• Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
• Kyle Gibson (4.039) – $5.3MM
• Ryan Pressly (4.039) – $1.6MM
• Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
• Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
• Trevor May (3.051) – $600K

White Sox (7)

• Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM
• Luis Avilan (4.146) – $2.3MM
• Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM
• Danny Farquhar (3.135) – $1.5MM
• Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM
• Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM
• Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM

Yankees (8)

• Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
• Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
• Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
• Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
• Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
• Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
• Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
• Chasen Shreve (2.167) – $900K

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017.  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official.  The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.

If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies.  A full post on Abreu can be found here.

Angels (5)

• Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
• Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
• Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM
• Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM
• Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM

Astros (7)

• Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM
• Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
• Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
• Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
• Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
• Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
• George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
• Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM

Athletics (5)

• Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM
• Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM
• Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM
• Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM
• Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM

Blue Jays (4)

• Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
• Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
• Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
• Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM

Braves (7)

• Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM
• Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM
• Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM
• Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K
• Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM
• Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K

Brewers (4)

• Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
• Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
• Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
• Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM

Cardinals (5)

• Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
• Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
• Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
• Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
• Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM

Cubs (4)

• Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
• Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
• Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
• Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM

Diamondbacks (6)

• Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM
• Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM
• Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM
• Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM
• Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM
• Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM

Dodgers (7)

• Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM
• Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM
• Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM
• Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM
• Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM
• Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM
• Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM

Giants (6)

• Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM
• Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K
• George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM
• Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM
• Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM
• Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K

Indians (8)

• Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM
• Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM
• Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM
• Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM
• Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM
• Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM
• Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM
• Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM

Mariners (9)

• Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM
• Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
• Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
• Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
• Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM
• Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
• Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
• James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
• Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K

Marlins (6)

• David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM
• Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM
• A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM
• Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM
• Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM
• Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM

Mets (10)

• Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
• Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
• Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
• Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
• Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
• Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
• Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
• Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
• Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
• Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM

Nationals (5)

• Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
• Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
• Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM
• Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
• Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM

Orioles (9)

• Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
• Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
• Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
• Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
• Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
• Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
• T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K
• Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
• Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM

Padres (6)

• Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM
• Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM
• Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM
• Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM
• Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM
• Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM

Phillies (3)

• Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
• Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
• Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM

Pirates (7)

• Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM
• Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM
• Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM
• Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM
• Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM
• Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM
• Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM

Rangers (7)

• Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
• Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
• Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
• A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
• Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
• Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM
• Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM

Rays (9)

• Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
• Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
• Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
• Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
• Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
• Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
• Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
• Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
• Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM

Red Sox (10)

• Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
• Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
• Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
• Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
• Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
• Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
• Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
• Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
• Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM

Reds (4)

• Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM
• Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM
• Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM
• Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM

Rockies (5)

• Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM
• Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM
• Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM
• Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM
• Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM

Royals (3)

• Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
• Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
• Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM

Tigers (6)

• Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
• Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
• Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
• Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
• Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
• Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM

Twins (5)

• Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
• Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
• Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
• Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
• Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

White Sox (9)

• Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM
• Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
• Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
• Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
• Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
• Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
• Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K

Yankees (7)

• Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
• Adam Warren (4.036) – $2.3MM
• Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
• Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
• Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
• Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
• Tommy Layne (2.144) – $1.2MM

OCTOBER 26: The precise cutoff will be 2.131 years, Dierkes tweets. That means that most of the players noted below will fall short of qualifying, with Kiermaier representing one of the last to sneak into the arb process.

OCTOBER 10: We just published this year’s arbitration projections for all 30 teams this morning, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes follows that up with a report (Twitter link) that the projected Super Two cutoff for this year’s class is expected to fall between two years, 127 days of MLB service time (2.127) and two years, 131 days (2.131). Players who qualify for “Super Two” designation — that is, the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — will be eligible for arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three that the rest of the league will qualify. That can have significant financial implications for both teams and players, and one needs only to look to this morning’s arbitration projections for proof of that point.

For instance, players such as David Peralta (2.120 years of service, $1.6MM projected salary), Rougned Odor (2.121, $4MM) and Dan Straily (2.126, $3.9MM) would fall a bit shy, as would Jesus Sucre ($600K) and Chase Whitley ($900K). In the case of a team like the Reds or Rangers, there’s already in the vicinity of $4MM at stake, and because future all future arbitration salaries are based on prior earnings, there’s a compounding effect at play as well. Super Two status also impacts extension talks, which the Rangers have reportedly explored with Odor’s camp. With Odor likely to fall shy of Super Two status, the Rangers needn’t offer quite as much as they would have had to were Odor slated to be arbitration-eligible four times, as his year-to-year earnings will be a bit lesser with only three trips through the arbitration process.

Meanwhile, players like Brett Oberholtzer (2.127, $1MM) and Kevin Kiermaier (2.131, $2.1MM) will see their earnings increase at least twofold in 2017 (if the lower end of the spectrum holds true, with regards to Oberholtzer). In Kiermaier’s case, he’d stand to roughly quadruple his salary by virtue of qualifying as a Super Two player.

This year’s cutoff, then, will fall pretty closely in line with the cutoffs we’ve seen over the past two years:

• 2015: 2.130
• 2014: 2.133
• 2013: 2.122
• 2012: 2.140
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

Last year’s Super Two class took players like Kole Calhoun ($3.4MM), Didi Gregorius ($2.425MM), Anthony Rendon ($2.8MM) and, most notably, Nolan Arenado ($5MM), and jump-started their earning power in significant fashion. As can be seen in the above-linked projections, the largest beneficiaries of this year’s Super Two cutoff figure to be George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Danny Salazar, Matt Shoemaker, Sam Dyson and Marcus Stroman — each of whom is projected to take home north of $3.5MM in his first of what will now be four trips through arbitration eligibility.

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work.  You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet!  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known.  We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here.  In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.

Angels (6)

• Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM
• Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM
• Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM
• Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM
• Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM
• Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM

Astros (8)

• Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM
• Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM
• Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM
• Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM
• Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM
• Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM
• Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K
• Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM

Athletics (15)

• Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM
• Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM
• Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM
• Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM
• Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM
• Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM
• Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM
• Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM
• Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM
• Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM
• Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM
• Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K
• Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM
• A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K
• Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K

Blue Jays (9)

• Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
• Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
• Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
• Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
• Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
• Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
• Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
• Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
• Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K

Braves (5)

• Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM
• Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K
• Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM
• Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM
• Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K

Brewers (3)

• Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM
• Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM
• Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM

Cardinals (7)

• Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
• Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
• Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
• Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
• Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
• Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
• Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM

Cubs (8)

• Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
• Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
• Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
• Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
• Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM
• Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM
• Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
• Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM

Diamondbacks (8)

• Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM
• Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.
• Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K
• Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM
• Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM
• Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM
• Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM
• A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM

Dodgers (9)

• A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
• Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
• Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
• Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
• Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
• Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
• Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
• Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
• Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K

Giants (4)

• Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
• Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
• Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
• George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM

Indians (7)

• Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
• Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
• Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
• Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
• Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
• Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
• Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K

Mariners (3)

• Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM
• Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM
• Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM
• Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*

Marlins (9)

• Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
• Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
• David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
• Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
• Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
• A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
• Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
• Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
• Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
• Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM

Mets (8)

• Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
• Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
• Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
• Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
• Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
• Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
• Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
• Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K

Nationals (9)

• Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM
• Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM
• Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM
• Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM
• Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM
• Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM
• Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM
• Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM

Orioles (10)

• Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM
• Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K
• Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K
• Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM
• Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM
• Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM
• Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM
• Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM
• Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM
• Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM
• David Lough (2.149) – $800K

Padres (8)

• Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
• Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
• Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection;  has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
• Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
• Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
• Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
• Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
• Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM

Phillies (4)

• Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM
• Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM
• Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM
• Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM

Pirates (9)

• Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM
• Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM
• Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM
• Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM
• Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM
• Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM
• Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM
• Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM
• Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM

Rangers (10)

• Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM
• Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM
• Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM
• Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM
• Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K
• Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM
• Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM
• Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K
• Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K

Rays (11)

• Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM
• Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM
• Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
• Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
• Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
• Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
• J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
• Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
• Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
• Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
• Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
• Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM

Red Sox (5)

• Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM
• Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K
• Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM
• Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM
• Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K

Reds (4)

• Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM
• Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM
• Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM
• J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM

Rockies (9)

• John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM
• Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM
• Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM
• Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM
• DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM
• Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM
• Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM
• Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM
• Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM

Royals (8)

• Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM
• Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM
• Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM
• Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM
• Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM
• Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM
• Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM
• Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM

Tigers (5)

• Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
• Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
• J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
• Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
• Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM

Twins (6)

• Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM
• Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM
• Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM
• Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM
• Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM
• Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM

White Sox (5)

• Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
• Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
• Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
• Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
• Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
• Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K

Yankees (7)

• Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
• Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
• Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
• Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
• Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
• Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
• Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM

*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.

Salaries for arbitration eligible players eclipsed $1 billion in 2015, making the arbitration process more important to team building than ever. At MLB Trade Rumors, we are entering our fifth year of modeling arbitration salaries and have improved the model again for the 2015-16 offseason.

Being able to accurately predict salaries is crucial for teams, and it’s important for MLBTR readers who want to understand the rationale behind teams’ decision-making processes. Teams typically sign free agents before reaching agreements with arbitration eligible players, so budgeting effectively requires a reasonable estimate of how much they will spend on the complete roster once arbitration raises are determined.

Forecasting arbitration salaries is also important for signing young players to long-term deals. Teams have increasingly used such deals to achieve payroll certainty and to avoid the risk of crippling free agent contracts. As a result, teams have used arbitration forecasts many years into the future to determine appropriate spending levels on extensions. Understanding the arbitration process in general is also important for teams seeking to find inefficiencies. Teams succeed by finding bargains on the free agent market, but finding players who will be bargains in the arbitration process is helpful as well.

The basic structure of the arbitration model to be used for this year is the same as in past years. Players are compared to recent players who went through the arbitration process, who played similar positions and who had similar MLB service time. Typically, players qualify for arbitration upon reaching three full years of Major League service time. The top 22 percent of players from the group that has between two and three years of service time also becomes eligible. These players are designated as “Super Two” players and can be arbitration eligible four times before reaching free agency.

A player’s first arbitration salary is based primarily on his most recent season, but on overall career statistics are considered as well. Beyond the first year, players receive raises based more heavily on the most recent season’s performance. Historical performance is only factored in to the extent that it affected a player’s most recent salary. While that may seem counter-intuitive, those familiar with the process have confirmed that this is usually the case in actual arbitration hearings.

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

Hitters are typically evaluated using batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases and plate appearances. There are some positional adjustments, but typically the added defensive value of a shortstop relative to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration hearings as it is on the free agent market. Hitters also can receive larger arbitration awards if they have unique accomplishments, such as winning an MVP award. Pitchers typically are evaluated using innings pitched and earned run average. Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds. Unique accomplishments, such as Cy Young Awards, matter for pitchers as well.

In addition to factoring these statistics into the process, the arbitration model also accounts for salary inflation—players are expected to receive more money in 2016 for the same performance than they would have in 2015. Precedents are also important, as we learned when we developed the “Kimbrel Rule.” The Kimbrel Rule limits the maximum margin for a player to exceed the previous record for his player type to $1MM (and similarly, the maximum raise for a non-first time eligible player is $1MM greater than the previous record raise as well). This was developed because Craig Kimbrel’s eye-popping save and ERA numbers entering his first year of arbitration would have led to a projected salary that was unrealistically high. Historically speaking, players do not typically break arbitration records by much greater magnitudes than $1MM.

The arbitration model we use at MLB Trade Rumors has improved over the years. The typical average error is generally around $300K or slightly below, but it does vary significantly based on how many big misses there were in a given year. The more useful metric that we track is the number of players who ultimately earned a salary within 10% of our salary projection. This has steadily increased from 55% in 2012 to 65% in 2015 and hopefully will continue increasing going forward. We have added some other adjustments for this year’s model. Such bells and whistles usually increase predictive efficiency of the model but can hurt in some cases. As a result, our adjustments typically mimic the way that the arbitration process works.

An additional feature of our model at MLB Trade Rumors is that I also pen roughly ten articles each year on unique arbitration cases in a series we’ve previously titled Arbitration Breakdown. Within that series, I look at historical comps for the players in question to determine whether the model is likely to be accurate in a particular case. I personally look forward to not having to write about the challenges of predicting David Price’s salaries anymore, now that he is a free agent. This Price-less set of articles will be released in the coming months, while the actual forecasted salaries for every arbitration eligible player will appear on MLB Trade Rumors during the middle of this week.