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Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio

By Connor Byrne | July 16, 2019 at 6:50pm CDT

If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…

Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13

  • Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33

  • A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.

Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14

  • Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84

  • It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.

Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72

  • Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.
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Multiple Teams Showing Initial Interest In Robbie Ray

By Jeff Todd | July 16, 2019 at 8:45am CDT

TODAY: You can add the Brewers to the stack of club’s showing initial interest in Ray, Morosi tweets. It seems safe to presume that just about every organization with a rotation need will at least take a look at the southpaw.

YESTERDAY, 10:25pm: The Yankees are also among the teams interested in Ray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Considering they’ve historically liked Ray, that’s not surprising.

4:48pm: Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray is one of the top rotation targets on this summer’s trade market. The Arizona organization will have to decide whether the time is right to cash in on the southpaw, who’s earning $6.05MM in 2019 and can be controlled via arbitration for one more season beyond the present.

The Astros and Phillies are two of the teams showing “recent interest” in Ray, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. It’s unsurprising to see this particular connection; both of those organizations is in obvious need of starting pitching and already pursued Ray over the offseason. No doubt other organizations are also taking a look at Ray in anticipation of the Snakes entertaining offers.

At this point, it’s unclear just how the Arizona organization will behave at the deadline. The club itself does not fully know, GM Mike Hazen has indicated. Final decisions will surely come down to details that aren’t yet known: where exactly are the Snakes in the Wild Card standings? And what package of young talent can they achieve for Ray and others?

The ’Stros and Phils are surely interested in gaining an understanding not just of what kind of pieces the D-Backs would want, but how inclined they are to pursue a deal in earnest. While the Houston organization will surely be in on rental assets, it has reasons to prefer controllable arms. It makes much more sense for the Philadelphia club to focus on the latter class, given its recent struggles.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how negotiations progress on Ray. He’s a particular target for strikeout-loving teams — so long as they can live with his walk issues and a few more long balls than might be preferred. Since the start of his breakout 2017 campaign, Ray has thrown nearly four hundred innings of 3.47 ERA ball with 12.0 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 along with 1.3 dingers per nine. Though the best run of results came at the front end of that time period, by most measures Ray has been much the same pitcher throughout. There were some health hiccups last year, but he has stayed on the mound this season. All things considered, Ray is quite an appealing target for the right contender.

The situation is made all the more interesting by the D-Backs’ own circumstances. Both Hazen and CEO Derrick Hall have made clear the organization isn’t looking for anything close to a full rebuild. That’s not to say that they wouldn’t be interested in highly talented but far-off prospects, but the Arizona org is not going to punt on the present entirely. That stance promises to impact the sort of deal structures that are pursued. The Snakes acquired talented players at or near the majors — Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andy Young — in last winter’s Paul Goldschmidt deal, which could provide something of a model for a Ray swap.

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D-backs’ Mike Hazen On Upcoming Trade Deadline

By Connor Byrne | July 11, 2019 at 12:12am CDT

When Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen looked ahead to the July 31 trade deadline in mid-June, he called for more consistency from his up-and-down club. A month later, he hasn’t gotten it. The Diamondbacks owned a 36-33 record at the time and closed the first half of the season with a 10-12 mark. Although the 46-45 D-backs have hovered around .500 for a large portion of the year, they’re still just 1 1/2 games out of playoff position.

The general mediocrity of Arizona and the rest of the National League wild-card contenders is setting up for what Hazen told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic will be “a complicated decision.” Three weeks before the deadline, Hazen’s preparing to buy, sell or even do some of both.

“I don’t think it has to be as drastic as buy/sell,” Hazen said. “Like in this offseason, there may be some creative things we need to do to help us now and in the future and I think those possibilities exist.”

Rewinding to the offseason, the Diamondbacks traded the face of their franchise – superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – but got back the major league-ready duo of right-hander Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly from the Cardinals. Weaver and Kelly have been instrumental in the Diamondbacks’ success this year, but the hurler hasn’t pitched since late May because of a forearm strain. Thanks to injuries to Weaver, Jon Duplantier and Taijuan Walker, the rotation’s the prime place the Diamondbacks figure to upgrade if they do any buying this month. They’ve had difficulty finding answers in their starting staff behind Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and Merrill Kelly, though Alex Young has been almost spotless through his first couple appearances.

Speaking of Greinke and Ray, they may be among the Diamondbacks’ trade chips if the club goes the other way. Dealing Greinke would be complicated because of the money left on his contract (he’s owed around $15MM more this year and $32MM per annum over the next two seasons), not to mention a 15-team no-trade clause. And the 35-year-old Greinke happens to remain a fantastic starter, so moving him would also seemingly weaken the D-backs’ near-term outlook. At the same time, however, it would presumably give the mid-payroll team a chance to wipe a lot of his money off its books.

Meanwhile, finding a taker for Ray wouldn’t be complex – he’s making $6.05MM and controllable for another season. Whether giving him up would hurt the D-backs from a competitive standpoint is another matter. The club also has relievers Greg Holland and Andrew Chafin; outfielders David Peralta, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson; shortstop Nick Ahmed and catcher Alex Avila among other potential trade pieces who are affordably priced and under control through either this season or next. Peralta is currently on the injured list for the second time this season because of right shoulder problems, but he has nonetheless drawn interest from the Cubs and possibly other clubs.

If the Diamondbacks were to trade any of those players away, the front office’s mission would likely be to acquire “young talent that can help the roster now,” as team CEO Derrick Hall said this week. Ultimately, the path the organization chooses in the coming weeks will be up to Hazen. Whatever Arizona does, it’s not “going to behave irresponsibly,” Hazen told Piecoro. Hazen suggested an NL West crown is likely out of reach because of the Dodgers’ stranglehold on the division, so the Diamondbacks’ best hope is to earn a spot in a one-game playoff. With that in mind, they’re not in go-for-broke mode.

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D-Backs CEO Derrick Hall On Deadline Plans

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2019 at 6:51am CDT

Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall discussed his organization’s upcoming trade-deadline plans — or, really, the lack thereof — in an interesting recent chat with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link). The whole thing is essential reading for the Arizona faithful, but we’ll examine a few key bits relating to the trade deadline.

Hall made clear, first and foremost, that the organization is entering the deadline period without a scripted approach. At the moment, it’s not clear what stance the Snakes will take. “[A] lot could be cleared up over the next few weeks,” he says, as the standings shift in the run-up to July 31st.

Just when and how that’ll be resolved remains to be seen. Intriguingly, Hall even seems to hint that he might rather see the current roster declare itself in one direction or the other more decisively. Per Hall: “We haven’t played great of late, and other teams have struggled as well, which has kept us in it, which is not necessarily a good thing for us.”

It’s not surprising to hear that the Arizona outfit will operate in a flexible manner. As Hall explains, that has been the modus operandi of GM Mike Hazen and his front office. “[O]ur guys, what they like to do is a little bit of both,” Hall said when asked what a sell-oriented deadline might look like, referring to the org’s twin pursuits of acquiring “pieces that can make an impact now” and “rebuilding that farm system.”

If there’s a broader takeaway from the chat, it probably lies in this line from Hall: “I don’t think Mike is in favor of a complete rebuild, and we’re in support of whatever direction he decides.” The organization clearly has placed quite a lot of trust in Hazen’s judgment. And it is obviously interested in maintaining consistent competitiveness while perhaps also achieving inflection points of real contention.

The D-Backs’ long-term vision carries echoes of successful, low-revenue clubs. After referring to the Paul Goldschmidt swap as “a deal that we really had to make,” Hall explained:

“That’s what [the front office is] always going to look to do, bring in young talent that can help the roster now. Even though you may be making moves that are moving some of your assets that we don’t have control over for a long time, you can still bring in individuals you will have that control over but who can impact the roster now.”

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things play out this summer and beyond. Players such as Robbie Ray and David Peralta could deliver nice returns with one year of control remaining; veteran ace Zack Greinke might finally be dealt away to clear up the team’s books. It seems fair to assume that Hazen will have an open mind on those and other assets, but it’s tough to say at present which particular players will end up being discussed in earnest over the next three weeks.

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Report: Yankees “Historically Have Liked” Robbie Ray

By Connor Byrne | July 8, 2019 at 11:24pm CDT

At 46-45, Arizona is among a slew of clubs with realistic playoff hopes in the wide-open National League. Just 1 1/2 games back of wild-card position, the Diamondbacks don’t look like surefire sellers with the July 31 trade deadline three-plus weeks ago. Should that change, though, the Diamondbacks could have an attractive trade chip in starter Robbie Ray. The Yankees are among teams that “historically have liked” the left-hander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported (subscription required).

Now 27 years old, Ray was already a piece in a trade featuring the Yankees earlier in his career. As part of a three-team deal in December 2014, the Diamondbacks acquired Ray from the Tigers, the Yankees got shortstop Didi Gregorius from the D-backs and the Tigers picked up righty Shane Greene from New York. Ray has since turned into one of the majors’ greatest strikeout artists among starters, having posted the league’s third-highest K/9 (11.14) dating back to his first season in Arizona. Shaky control (4.09 BB/9) has helped prevent Ray from limiting runs at an ace-level rate, though the 3.86 ERA and 3.85 FIP he has put up in 692 1/3 innings as a Diamondback are still respectable.

The 2019 version of Ray has offered production in line with his career totals. Over 104 2/3 frames, the slider-heavy Ray owns a 3.96 ERA/4.05 FIP with 11.78 K/9 (fifth in the game) and a 13.7 percent swinging-strike rate (12th). On the negative side, Ray’s velocity has dipped compared to last year, and though his walk rate has fallen from 5.09 per nine to 4.64 since then, it remains unpalatable. Ray has also yielded home runs on upward of 15 percent of fly balls for the fourth consecutive year, in part because his groundball rate checks in just under 40 percent for the second straight season. Moreover, as Rosenthal notes, Ray has never been known as a workhorse who lasts deep into games. He has only amassed 30 or more starts once, in 2016, and has averaged well under six frames per outing in his career.

Ray does have his flaws, but no team would expect to land an ace in acquiring him. The club would instead be under the impression it’s trading for one-plus year of a solid, affordable starter. Ray is making a reasonable $6.05MM this year and in his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility – facts that only add to his appeal for the D-backs and other teams.

World Series-contending New York has been on the lookout for starters for weeks and could use an ace in light of Luis Severino’s ongoing injury problems. However, the team might struggle to find a true No. 1 starter from elsewhere this summer. The Indians may part with Trevor Bauer, who has landed on the Yankees’ radar, though he hasn’t consistently resembled his ace-caliber 2018 self. Along with Ray and Bauer, the Yankees have shown reported interest in the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (link), the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner and the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman (links here). For the most part, that group pales in comparison to a healthy Severino. Nevertheless, each of those starters would seemingly help a Yankees rotation that – despite the team’s AL-best 57-31 record – hasn’t received front-line production from anyone.

Looking beyond this season, the Yankees will lose the retiring CC Sabathia, which could make Ray or anyone else under control past 2019 an even more logical fit. Severino will at least be back next year (barring something catastrophic), though, and Jordan Montgomery could return from June 2018 Tommy John surgery by then. James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German and the struggling J.A. Happ comprise the rest of the Yankees’ experienced starters who are currently slated to stick around in 2020.

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Cubs Among Teams Interested In David Peralta

By Mark Polishuk | July 8, 2019 at 1:02am CDT

If the Diamondbacks decide to move some of their veteran talent at the deadline, the Cubs are one of multiple teams who would have interest in outfielder David Peralta, Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest video link for FOX Sports.

Peralta went on the injured list on Friday due to right shoulder inflammation, though Arizona expects he’ll be back in action in relatively short order (and, most importantly, before the July 31st trade deadline).  Peralta’s health is still something of a red flag, however, as this is the second time this season that a bothersome right AC joint has sent him to the injured list.  That first IL stint sidelined the outfielder for only 10 days, but any type of recurring injury has to be concerning to any interested trade partners, particularly since Peralta batted only .252/.342/.388 over 117 plate appearances in between his two trips to the injured list.

Those 117 PA make up a significant chunk of Peralta’s season, and could explain why his overall .289/.352/.476 slash line and 112 OPS+ and wRC+ over 324 PA are all down from his production in 2018 (.293/.352/.516 with 30 homers, 128 OPS+, 130 wRC+).  Peralta may also be somewhat fortunate to be hitting as well as he has this season, as his .350 wOBA far outpaces a very modest .301 xwOBA.

It could be that a healthy Peralta, fully recovered from his shoulder woes, can regain his 2018 form once he returns from the IL.  He’d have to prove this over a relatively small amount of time before the trade deadline, as otherwise suitors would either lose interest or only present the D’Backs with lowball offers.  That could mean Arizona holds off on dealing Peralta altogether, as the Snakes don’t have a ton of urgency to move a player who has one year remaining of arbitration eligibility at an affordable price — Peralta is earning $7MM this season, and thus is likely on pace to get a raise to something in the $9MM range for 2020.

This assumes, of course, that the Diamondbacks are sellers at all, as the team heads into the All-Star break 1.5 games out of the final NL wild card position.  Arizona isn’t far behind Chicago’s own 47-43 record, though the Cubs are hanging onto first place in the crowded NL Central, whereas the D’Backs are way behind the Dodgers in the NL West, so the wild card is the Snakes’ only realistic road to the postseason.

Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen has tried to walk the fine line between keeping his team competitive while also keeping payroll in check, as the D’Backs are somewhat bogged down by the large salaries owed to Zack Greinke (who at least delivers ace-level performance) and the albatross that is Yasmany Tomas’ contract.  To this end, Arizona parted ways with Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock as free agents last offseason and also dealt Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals, though despite missing these star names, the D’Backs have indeed still remained in the wild card hunt.

Barring a big string of losses after the break, it doesn’t seem like Hazen would turn firmly towards deadline selling since Peralta still has quite a bit of value to the 2020 club.  On the other hand, that same extra year of control could also entice teams to offer enough young talent for Arizona to consider moving Peralta.

The Cubs represent an interesting suitor for Peralta, particularly since Chicago already has a left-handed hitting left fielder in Kyle Schwarber.  Peralta has played almost exclusively in left field over the last two seasons, though he has a lot of experience in right field, so the Cubbies could deploy him in right while Jason Heyward (another lefty swinger) became more or less a full-time center fielder.

While everyday center fielders are harder to find than corner outfielders (especially at the trade deadline), one would think the more easier solution to the Cubs’ issues would be to simply find an actual center fielder, rather than add Peralta into the mix.  Heyward has graded as a good center fielder, though since he is arguably the game’s best defensive right fielder, moving him to center and Peralta to right doesn’t do much to help the Cubs’ overall defense.

If Peralta was acquired, maybe the more intriguing counter-move would be for Chicago to then flip Schwarber — perhaps the Diamondbacks would have interest.  This is just speculation on my part, though on the face of it, adding Peralta alongside Heyward and Schwarber for an all-left handed starting outfield doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Cubs.  Then again, the right-handed hitter Kris Bryant would still continue to see his share of at-bats in the corner outfield positions when he isn’t playing third base.

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Cody Decker Announces Retirement

By Mark Polishuk | July 7, 2019 at 6:11pm CDT

  • Cody Decker is retiring from pro baseball, as officially confirmed by the Triple-A Reno Aces.  The 32-year-old Decker ended his career on a remarkable high note, hitting a walkoff homer on Friday to end his final game.  A UCLA product who was selected in the 22nd round of the 2009 draft by the Padres, Decker logged 3843 plate appearances over 1033 games in the minor leagues.  After spending his first seven years in San Diego’s farm system, Decker bounced around to five other organizations within the last four seasons, including two years in Reno, the Diamondbacks’ top affiliate.  Though Decker’s only MLB experience consisted of eight games for the Padres in 2015 (that saw him go hitless in 11 at-bats), his lengthy minor league career and colorful personality made him something of a folk hero to teammates and fans.  Decker hit .260/.341/.517 in the minors, and his 204 homers were the most of any active minor leaguer.  We at MLBTR wish Decker the best in his post-playing career!
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Diamondbacks Place David Peralta On Injured List

By Connor Byrne | July 5, 2019 at 9:15pm CDT

The Diamondbacks placed left fielder David Peralta on the 10-day injured list and recalled infielder Domingo Leyba from Triple-A Reno on Friday, manager Torey Lovullo announced.

Peralta is dealing with right AC joint inflammation, an issue that has dogged him for over a month. The 31-year-old went to the IL with the same injury on May 24, and even though Peralta spent the minimum time on the shelf, his shoulder hasn’t healed since then. Lovullo did express hope Friday that Peralta would once again return after a short IL stay, though.

Peralta boasted a .309/.357/.524 line in 217 plate appearances when he initially went down, but that slash has dropped to .289/.352/.476 (112 wRC+) in 107 PA since his return. While that’s still quality production overall, it falls well short of Peralta’s numbers in comparison to last year, when he recorded a 130 wRC+ with 30 home runs. He has mustered just nine HRs this season while seeing his ISO drop from .223 to .187.

Arizona, which is three games out of the NL wild-card race, has often turned to the righty-hitting Tim Locastro in left when Peralta hasn’t been available. However, with right-hander Antonio Senzatela on the mound for the Rockies on Friday, the Diamondbacks started the lefty-swinging Jarrod Dyson.

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D-Backs Keep Greg Holland In Closer Role

By Jeff Todd | July 5, 2019 at 8:54pm CDT

  • While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
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Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher

By Connor Byrne | July 5, 2019 at 6:53pm CDT

The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.

Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.

Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.

While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.

Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.

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Arizona Diamondbacks MLBTR Originals Carson Kelly

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