- While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
Diamondbacks Rumors
Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher
The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.
Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.
Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.
According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.
While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.
Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Greg Holland’s Closer Job At Risk After 2nd Consecutive Blown Save
Diamondbacks reliever Greg Holland’s hold on the club’s closer role appears to be tenuous after a second-straight blown save. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, skipper Torey Lovullo declined last night to confirm that the veteran hurler will keep the job moving forward.
To his credit, Lovullo wasn’t willing to make a rash decision in the immediate aftermath of another late-inning collapse. “I’m in an emotional state right now,” he said. “I want to probably think through it with a clear head.”
At the same time, the skipper acknowledge that he’s “concerned” with his veteran closer. That stands in contrast to Lovullo’s words after Holland’s hard-to-watch meltdown the night prior, when he nearly shut the door on the rival Dodgers before summoning a cavalcade around the bases with a series of free passes.
As Piecoro documents, Holland’s steady start to the year has given way to increasingly shaky performances. He has blown three of his last five save opportunities. Since a scoreless appearance against the Los Angeles club on June 5th, Holland’s earned run average has shot up from 1.31 to 3.21. Worse, he has managed just five strikeouts against seven walks in that 7 1/3-inning span.
It’s not entirely surprising that Holland has failed to sustain the early success. He’s no longer a dominating pitcher: his arm speed continues to trail off (career-low 92.2 average fastball, 84.8 mph slider) and his swinging-strike rate has fallen to levels (12.3%) not seen since his debut campaign. Free passes continue to be an issue, with Holland dishing out 5.2 per nine since the start of the 2015 season.
That said, there was (and perhaps still is) hope that Holland would be a key piece for the Snakes the rest of the way. Statcast suggests that he has been legitimately excellent at limiting hard contact, crediting him with a .253 xwOBA-against that is actually a shade better than his .256 wOBA-against.
No matter the course the team takes, Holland is an important player to the organization. Should the club elect to hang in there and continue fighting, despite a yawning divisional deficit and tough Wild Card competition, then it’ll need to take more than its fair share of tight contests. If it decides instead to cash in some chips at the deadline, Holland would be the team’s most obvious rental piece to sell. The difficulties, then, come at an awkward time for Arizona. At the moment, Holland is neither helping the team keep pace nor boosting his own trade value.
While it’d be silly to overplay the notion of the proven closer, contending teams still value late-inning experience and steadiness (and not all that infrequently will give up notable prospects in search of certainty in the 9th). Now, it’s increasingly hard to imagine the Arizona franchise successfully marketing Holland as a reliable veteran who could handle closing duties down the stretch.
Holland is guaranteed only $3.25MM on the year and needs not feature as a closer to have trade appeal. But that’s where his greatest potential value lies to the team. Odds are, he’ll be given a shot to regain his standing over the next several weeks even if he’s removed temporarily from the role.
There are also some direct financial considerations worthy of note. With thirty appearances and twenty games finished, Holland is also already in the meat of his contract’s incentive package. He has already picked up $300K in extra earnings. He can earn $100K upon reaching 35, 40, 45, and 50 appearances, with $200K apiece if he logs a 55th and 60th. And there’s $150K promised for finishing games number 25, 30, 35, and 40, with even bigger numbers thereafter ($300K at 45 and 50, $600K for 55 and 60).
David Peralta To Undergo MRI On Shoulder
- Diamondbacks outfielder David Peralta will undergo an MRI on his balky right shoulder Thursday, manager Torey Lovullo told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters. The same shoulder forced Peralta to the IL on May 24, led to an early exit Wednesday, and has likely contributed to his dip in production since he returned. Peralta’s OPS has fallen from .881 to .833 over the past month.
MLB Draft Signings: 7/3/19
We’ll use this post to track the latest noteworthy draft signings. Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500, Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law …
- The Diamondbacks have a $750K deal with southpaw Tommy Henry, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link). The 74th overall selection came with a $844K slot value, so there are some savings here for the team to work with. Henry recently capped a strong season with an excellent showing in the College World Series. Now, he’ll launch his pro career with the Arizona organization. Henry ranked just inside the top 50 among all draft prospects on the BA board, with MLB.com (#59) and Fangraphs (#64) generally concurring with that range of placement. While there were some ups and downs in Henry’s arsenal over the course of the 2019 campaign, he’s said to command a strong, three-pitch mix at his best.
Latest On Jon Duplantier
- Injured Diamondbacks righty Jon Duplantier’s most recent MRI on his shoulder yielded positive news, manager Torey Lovullo announced Saturday (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Still, the Diamondbacks aren’t any closer to determining how much more time Duplantier will miss. The 24-year-old has already sat out almost three weeks, having gone on the IL on June 12. With Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker also injured, the Diamondbacks have cycled through Taylor Clarke, Zack Godley and Alex Young at the back of their rotation during Duplantier’s absence. Clarke and Godley have struggled mightily, though the former did turn in a solid five innings in a win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. Young just made his MLB debut Thursday and tossed five innings of one-run ball in a victory over San Francisco.
Diamondbacks To Activate Jake Lamb, Select Alex Young
TODAY: The D’Backs have officially announced that Young’s contract has been selected. Stefan Crichton was optioned to Triple-A and Steven Souza Jr. was moved to the 60-day injured list to create the necessary roster space for Young to join the club.
YESTERDAY: Diamondbacks corner infielder Jake Lamb will return Wednesday after a long stay on the injured list, manager Torey Lovullo told Zach Buchanan of The Athletic and other reporters. Lovullo also announced the Diamondbacks plan to select Triple-A left-hander Alex Young to start in San Francisco on Thursday. Arizona will need to make a corresponding 40-man move when it officially adds Young.
This will go down as the second straight truncated season for Lamb, a 2017 All-Star third baseman whose 2018 concluded after 56 games because of left shoulder surgery. Lamb came back this year to suffer a Grade 2 left quad strain in early April, knocking him out for almost three months.
The 28-year-old Lamb has been a regular presence in the Diamondbacks’ lineup for a large portion of his career. However, playing time may not be as easy to come by for him this season. Third baseman Eduardo Escobar has been one of the Diamondbacks’ best players, while Christian Walker has held his own at first base since Lamb went down. The Diamondbacks could shift Escobar to second base and Ketel Marte to center field to create opportunities for Lamb, writes the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, though he notes that looks infeasible at the moment with Marte’s recovering from a groin injury. Lovullo’s unsure when Marte will be able to return to the outfield, per Piecoro.
Young joined the Diamondbacks as a high draft pick in 2015, when they used the 43rd overall choice on him. Despite Young’s draft pedigree, he doesn’t rank among the D-backs’ top 32 prospects at FanGraphs or their top 30 at MLB.com. The 25-year-old has been pitching with Reno of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League since last season, and has combined for a 6.01 ERA with 8.4 K/9 an 3.3 BB/9 in 134 2/3 innings at the level.
Young’s promotion will be Arizona’s latest attempt to get passable production from the back end of its rotation. Zack Godley and Taylor Clarke haven’t been able to step up during the injury-forced absences of Luke Weaver, Taijuan Walker and Jon Duplantier.
Luke Weaver Making Progress
Arm problems have kept Diamondbacks starter Luke Weaver out of action for almost a month, but the right-hander’s seemingly moving toward a return. A follow-up MRI on Weaver “showed improvement,” Steve Gilbert of MLB.com tweets. It’s still unclear when he’ll begin a throwing program, per Gilbert, though manager Torey Lovullo called Weaver’s progress “a very good sign.”
An injury to Weaver’s right ulnar collateral ligament and flexor pronator could have sent him to the operating table at the end of May, but a group of doctors agreed he could try to rehab without surgery. So far, so good for Weaver and the Diamondbacks, who can ill afford to see the 25-year-old go under the knife. The club’s starting staff has already been without the injured Taijuan Walker, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and has more recently battled shoulder problems. Plus, in addition to Weaver and Walker, the team put fellow promising righty Jon Duplantier on the injured list June 12 with shoulder inflammation.
The absences of Weaver, Walker and Duplantier have left sizable holes in Arizona’s rotation after Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and Merrill Kelly, helping to explain its recent slide down the standings. Having received unappealing results from Zack Godley and Taylor Clarke, the Diamondbacks are an unimpressive 39-40. However, they’re still just two games behind the Cardinals for the NL’s second wild-card spot.
Should the D-backs continue to hang around the playoff picture, a healthy Weaver could serve as an important in-season reinforcement. Acquired from the Cardinals last winter in a package for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Weaver has pitched to an outstanding 3.03 ERA/3.07 FIP with 9.82 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 in 62 1/3 innings this season in his first action in the desert.
Diamondbacks Acquire Ben Lively
The Diamondbacks have acquired right-hander Ben Lively from the Royals for cash considerations, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was among those to report. Lively will go to Triple-A Reno.
The Royals designated Lively for assignment Thursday after a rough major league showing this year in which he allowed three earned runs on three hits in a single inning of work. The 27-year-old worked to a 4.07 ERA/5.56 FIP with 8.79 K/9 and 4.07 BB/9 in 42 innings with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate this season before the club let him go.
Lively’s likely best known for his tenure with the Phillies, who acquired him from the Reds for outfielder Marlon Byrd in December 2014. Overall, he has pitched to a 4.80 ERA/5.03 FIP with 6.0 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 in 120 major league innings. He has logged a more impressive 3.12 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 308 2/3 frames at the Triple-A level.
Marte Day-To-Day With Groin Cramp
- Good news for the Arizona Diamondbacks as Ketel Marte’s injury appears minor. He is day-to-day for now with a left groin cramp, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Marte’s health is crucial for the Diamondbacks if they are to stay in the hunt for the Wild Card. They are 2.5 games back entering play today, largely driven by Marte’s .309/.359/.586 season, his 20 home runs already 6 more than his previous career high.
