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AL East Notes: MASN, Happ, Estrada, Machado

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While the ongoing television rights dispute between the Orioles and Nationals has been out of the news for some time, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been any action behind the scenes. Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun recently provided a notable update on the situation. While the Baltimore organization has “grown weary of battling Major League Baseball over the [MASN] network” and has tried to work out a settlement, there’s still no resolution. At present, there’s no indication that the stalemate will be broken voluntarily; barring a change in that dynamic, the next big event on the calendar is a scheduled arbitration hearing in November.

Here’s the latest from the AL East:

  • The Yankees may be the “main player” for Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Not only is Happ arguably the best rental starter on the market, but it seems the Yanks hold him in high regard. They won’t be alone in pursuing the Toronto southpaw, however. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Jays are directing some scouting resources toward the Brewers farm system, perhaps in anticipation of interest from the Milwaukee organization.
  • Fellow Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada left last night’s game with a sore hip, as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm was among those to tweet. For now, the severity isn’t known, though perhaps it’s promising that the Toronto organization made a roster transaction today but did not feel compelled to rush Estrada onto the disabled list. As we recently examined, Estrada’s strong performance of late has made him seem increasingly like a potential trade candidate this summer, but he’ll only be a useful asset for the Jays if he’s in good health.
  • Orioles third baseman Manny Machado is said to be drawing wide and increasingly active interest from a variety of rival organizations. That’s no surprise, as he’s a mid-prime rental asset of rare ability. The Diamondbacks have held “consistent” talks with the Baltimore organization, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), which largely confirms the steady stream of reports we’ve seen on Arizona’s engagement. Morosi adds that the O’s are interested in young D-Backs prospect Jon Duplantier, whose current injury has “complicated” efforts to put together a package that suits both teams. It’s hard to gauge to what extent Duplantier’s status will impact the broader Machado situation, in no small part because it is not apparent whether he’s a player the Snakes would be willing to part with for a rental. Meanwhile, the Braves do have some interest in Machado, Morosi also tweets, but are mostly exploring the market for “controllable relievers” at the moment. Again, that dovetails with what we’ve heard out of Atlanta in recent weeks.

Manny Machado Trade Talks Have Reportedly Accelerated

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Though there’s still four weeks until the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline, trade talks surrounding Manny Machado have “accelerated” in recent days, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Orioles, according to Rosenthal, would prefer to move Machado “sooner rather than later,” as they can extract more in a trade if the acquiring team controls Machado for three months as opposed to two months.

To this point in the summer, the teams most connected to Machado have been the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Indians. The Brewers and Cubs have been more loosely tied to Machado on the rumor mill, though Rosenthal reports that while Milwaukee is doing its due diligence, the team is unlikely to meet Baltimore’s asking price.

That, it seems, could be true of the Phillies as well. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that the Phillies should be considered “longshots” in the Machado trade sweepstakes. Zolecki writes that while the Phillies “love” Machado and plan to make a serious run at him in the offseason, the team doesn’t feel itself to be one piece away from a World Series. That, of course, makes it considerably more difficult to meet what is likely a rather lofty asking price from the O’s.

Rosenthal suggests that the D-backs and Indians could be the “most motivated” teams in the Machado market, and Zolecki, too, specifically lists the D-backs as a club likelier to acquire Machado than the Phillies.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, tweets that the Dodgers continue to “aggressively” pursue Machado, adding that the Orioles have been scouting L.A.’s system heavily and are particularly interested in Class-A Advanced right-hander Dustin May. There’d obviously be more at play than a mere one-for-one swap, but May, a third-round pick in 2016, is generally considered to be among the Dodgers’ more promising young arms. He’s off to a strong start in 2018 as well, having pitched to a 3.18 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate through 65 innings (12 starts).

Of course, there could still be other organizations involved in discussions. Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that eight teams have had at least some engagement with the O’s regarding Machado within the past ten days. That would suggest that there are at least a few mystery teams hanging around the periphery of talks.

D-Backs Activate A.J. Pollock, Select Joey Krehbiel, Release Troy Scribner

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The Diamondbacks have announced a series of roster moves. Most notably, the club activated center fielder A.J. Pollock. Additionally, the organization selected the contract of righty Joey Krehbiel and released fellow right-hander Troy Scribner.

Those moves bring two addition players to the active roster. To make space, the Snakes have optioned infielder/outfielder Christian Walker and righty Silvino Bracho.

Pollock, who’s returning from a broken thumb, only played in two rehab games before his activation. Accordingly, manager Torey Lovullo says that the team will limit Pollock’s action somewhat as he gets back into the swing of things, as Jack Magruder of the Sports Xchange tweets. He’ll look to pick up where he left off to open the season. In his first forty games, Pollock posted an excellent .293/.349/.620 batting line.

The 25-year-old Krehbiel, a former 12th-round pick, receives his first shot at the majors. He earned his way up with a strong showing in his first full go at Triple-A. Over 36 2/3 innings this year, he carries a 2.45 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.

As for Scribner, today’s news makes for an unwelcome birthday surprise. The 27-year-old, an early-season waiver claimee, struggled in his lone MLB start this year. He has spent most of the season at Triple-A, pitching to a 5.11 ERA in 44 frames over eight starts. Though he has averaged exactly one strikeout per frame, along with a manageable 3.5 BB/9, Scribner has coughed up ten long balls in that span.

Notable International Prospect Signings

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With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).

We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.

Onto some of the more notable signings…

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Injury Notes: Tommy John Surgeries, Sanchez, Thornburg, Sandoval

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Tommy John surgeries have become alarmingly common in today’s baseball climate, but the most disturbing trend is the age at which the bulk of these procedures are performed. Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel sheds some spotlight on a recent study showing that teens between the ages of 15 and 19 account for 75% of all Tommy John surgeries. Davis cites the words of Dr. Tommy John (son of the former major league pitcher and the procedure’s namesake), who bluntly says, “The success rate after Tommy John surgery is not good. You don’t want this surgery, especially if you have it in your teenage years.” One possible reason for the dramatic increase in youth Tommy John surgeries is single-sport specialization; Dr. Randolph Cohen of Joe DiMaggio Children’s Hospital in Hollywood seems to believe it’s a big issue. “There’s an overall kind of irrational push by parents on children who are playing sports for such long hours and such long durations and such great repetition that we’re seeing an increase in the injuries in children than say we saw 20 years ago, where injuries like that were much more rare,” he said.

A few injury-related notes from around major-league baseball…

  • Though injured Yankees star Gary Sanchez hasn’t begun running drills yet, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that his recovery is going well. The Bombers are apparently hopeful he’ll be able to return around the All-Star break. Though he’s currently batting below the Mendoza line, the young Sanchez leads all MLB catchers with 14 homers to this point in the season.
  • The Red Sox are set to add a valuable reliever even before the July 31st trade deadline hits, as Chris Cotillo of masslive.com reports that Tyler Thornburg is expected to return to the club this week. The 29-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in a game for the Red Sox since being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Travis Shaw and a pair of minor-leaguers. There wouldn’t appear to be a great chance of salvaging the trade at this point, but if Thornburg can return to post something close to the 2.15 ERA and 12.06 K/9 he posted with Milwaukee back in 2016, he could be of great help to an already-strong bridge to Craig Kimbrel.
  • The Giants got some good news today, as it appears Pablo Sandoval has avoided any serious injury. Panda’s x-rays showed no fractures (according to a tweet from Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic), so his diagnosis is simply an elbow contusion after being hit by a Zack Godley pitch during today’s matchup against the Diamondbacks.

Latest On Manny Machado

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Manny Machado will be the most oft-discussed player in baseball from now until the point that he’s ultimately traded, and Orioles general manager Dan Duquette said for the second time this month that interest in the free-agent-to-be is greater than it was when the O’s made him available in the offseason (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).

“There are some teams that are in the market for help on the left side of the infield and some are looking for a shortstop and some are looking for a third baseman,” said Duquette. The asking price on Machado, of course, figures to be fairly steep — and the sheer volume of teams who could show interest can only help the Orioles. Kubatko notes that controllable starting pitching is a known priority for the Orioles, as is finding a potential replacement for Machado.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that, among the teams with interest in Machado, the Dodgers are perceived by some in the industry as the favorites to land Machado. Los Angeles has gone 26-10 to surge back up the ranks in the National League West, and they’ve done so without the benefit of star young shortstop Corey Seager, whose season ended back in May when he required Tommy John surgery. Machado could step into that void, of course, and provide a massive upgrade at the plate while freeing Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez to bounce around the diamond.

Per Nightengale, the O’s have placed a heavy focus on scouting the Dodgers’ minor league system. However, there are numerous other clubs at least keeping tabs on Machado, per the report, including the Phillies, the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals. There’s also industry speculation that the NL Central-leading Brewers could jump into the mix, given their aggressive offseason, an expected tight race in the division and the struggles of Orlando Arcia. And, of course, other clubs could yet emerge as potential suitors. The Angels, for instance, learned today that they’ve likely lost Zack Cozart for the rest of the year due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will require surgery.

One of those clubs, the Diamondbacks, has a particularly compelling case to add Machado to its ranks, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explores. With A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin up for free agency following the season and Paul Goldschmidt only controlled through 2019, Piecoro argues that the Diamondbacks will never have a better chance to win with this core of players than they do right now. The front office has already been aggressive in acquiring Brad Boxberger, Jon Jay and Steven Souza Jr. (even if that move has yet to pay dividends), and it would indeed seem curious to take the metaphorical foot off the gas pedal now.

The Machado sweepstakes, clearly, will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow this summer and again in free agency. There’s no clear timetable for when a trade might come together, but Duquette didn’t mince words when acknowledging that his club has “declared as sellers” and suggesting that there’s a “more defined” market for Machado this time around. Nightengale does note, though, that one Orioles exec predicted that based on the manner in which the market is coming together, it’s possible that Machado could be moved before the All-Star break.

NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich

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There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
  • The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
  • Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.

Diamondbacks To Activate Robbie Ray; Latest On Pollock, Souza

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The Diamondbacks have seen some positive developments in a variety of health situations. After activating Shelby Miller earlier today, the club decided it’ll also activate fellow starter Robbie Ray on Wednesday, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports (Twitter links).

Ray, who is coming off of an outstanding 2017 season, hit the shelf with an oblique strain after six outings this year. He was due to make at least one more rehab start before returning, but evidently feels good enough to jump into the MLB rotation. As Buchanan notes, Ray’s pitch count will likely be limited a bit for at least his first start back.

There’s good news in the outfield, too. Steven Souza Jr. is set to begin a rehab assignment, though he’ll initially work only as a designated hitter as he is still building up his throwing ability. Souza’s pectoral injury has limited him to just 14 games this season, his first with Arizona.

Even more importantly, perhaps, center fielder A.J. Pollock has finally resumed baseball activities. Pollock has been sidelined since mid-May with a broken thumb, which has healed a bit more slowly than the team surely preferred. If he can avoid any setbacks, though, perhaps it won’t be too long before Pollock is able to provide a major boost to the Snakes’ lineup.

Despite these significant injuries, the Snakes have managed to keep winning games. After a lull, the club has bounced back and kept its edge in the NL West. The D-Backs will surely need all hands on deck to hold off the Dodgers and other division contenders over the second half of the season.

D-backs Activate Miller, Place Buchholz On DL, Release Crichton

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The D-backs announced a series of roster moves Monday, activating right-hander Shelby Miller from the 60-day disabled list, placing fellow righty Clay Buchholz on the 10-day disabled list due to a strained left oblique muscle and releasing right-hander Stefan Crichton, who’d been on the minor league disabled list due to a shoulder injury.

For Miller, this will mark his return from a 14-month absence due to Tommy John surgery. He ramped up for his return with four minor league rehab starts between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, working to a combined 4.66 ERA with a much more impressive 28-to-6 K/BB ratio.

While Miller’s first season with the D-backs following the infamous Ender Inciarte/Dansby Swanson trade was an unequivocal disappointment, the righty was displaying some signs of a rebound last season at the time of his injury. Miller only made four starts last season and pitched just 22 innings, but he notched a solid 4.09 ERA with 20 strikeouts against 11 unintentional walks. More heartening, perhaps, was the fact that the lost life on his fastball had been rediscovered; after averaging a career-low 93 mph on his heater in 2016, he averaged 94.9 mph in 2017 prior to undergoing surgery.

[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart]

Miller’s return could prove to be critical for a D-backs rotation that has lost Taijuan Walker for the season and is currently without left-hander Robbie Ray (who, like Buchholz, is dealing with an oblique injury). Ray is on a minor league rehab assignment right now, and a starting five that includes him, Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley and a healthy Miller could prove formidable if Miller is closer to the pitcher who notched a 3.57 FIP in 2017 than he is to his 2016 form (6.15 ERA, 4.87 FIP).

Buccholz’s injury is hardly insignificant itself. After the Royals decided not to give him a look in the Majors earlier this year, he signed a minor league pact with the D-backs and has been something of a savior to their injury-plagued staff. Through seven starts and a total of 38 2/3 innings, Buchholz has compiled an outstanding 2.56 ERA with a 31-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate.

As for Crichton, the D-backs acquired him back on April 2, sending a player to be named later or cash to the Orioles. He ultimately never pitched in the Majors for the D-backs, and he was hit exceptionally hard in Triple-A before landing on the disabled list. In 16 innings there, Crichton logged a disastrous 10.13 RA with 17 strikeouts against eight unintentional walks and four home runs. That said, the 26-year-old was nothing short of excellent in Triple-A last year. In 47 2/3 there last season, a healthier Crichton notched a tidy 3.02 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9.

Trade Chatter: Machado, Tepera, Braves, Padres

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The Diamondbacks have once again checked in with the Orioles on Manny Machado, primarily as a matter of due diligence, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. There’s little surprise there, given that the Snakes were oft-linked to Machado in the offseason and were reportedly one of the more interested parties in obtaining his services. Beyond that, Arizona has received limited offensive contributions from both the third base (.216/.313/.394) and shortstop (.232/.296/.442) positions so far in 2018. The D-backs are currently hanging onto a 1.5 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West, and adding someone of Machado’s caliber would be reminiscent of last season’s J.D. Martinez acquisition, though Machado has more defensive value even with poor ratings at shortstop so far in 2018.

More trade talk from around the league…

  • Morosi also tweets that Blue Jays righty Ryan Tepera is generating trade interest. It stands to reason that virtually every player of even modest value on Toronto’s roster will draw inquiries, of course, considering that the team is 16 games out of first place in the AL East and is facing a similarly bleak outlook in the Wild Card standings. Morosi notes Tepera’s career-best K/9 rate in 2018, though in this instance, that hardly seems like a reason to expect his value to increase; Tepera’s 9.5 K/9 mark is only nominally higher than last year’s 9.4 K/9, and his overall 26.8 strikeout percentage compares favorably to last year’s 25.4 percent mark. Tepera has made modest gains across the board in terms of fastball velocity (95.3 mph), swinging-strike rate (13.9 percent) and chase rate (34.2 percent), but his greater appeal is simply one of club control. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and controlled cheaply through the 2021 season. Tepera will turn 31 this winter, which won’t enhance his appeal, but he’s a hard-thrower with a 3.27 ERA and 137 strikeouts against 51 walks in his past 132 MLB innings.
  • The Braves didn’t make a strong effort to acquire Kelvin Herrera before he was traded to the division-rival Nationals, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. While the Atlanta front office liked Herrera’s arm very much, O’Brien notes that assuming his remaining $4.4MM salary (which the Nats were willing to do) would’ve burned through the majority of the funds the team has available to upgrade via trade this summer. That would seem to suggest that the Braves may struggle to land any big-budget players as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. Certainly, given the team’s place atop the NL East standings, they’ll look to improve to whatever extent possible, but it appears that finances will be a fairly notable factor in any moves the team does make.
  • There’s a widespread expectation that the Padres will sell some pieces this summer, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link) takes a deeper look at a factor that could push the Friars into activity: the Rule 5 Draft. San Diego has more than a dozen prospects who’ll be Rule 5 eligible this offseason, Lin observes, which could create further motivation to open some spots on the 40-man by moving assets that are controlled beyond the 2018 season. Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen all fit that bill and have all already drawn trade interest, Lin writes, and the Padres could also shop outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Travis Jankowski to other clubs as well. Lin speaks with general manager A.J. Preller at length about the upcoming roster crunch in a thorough look at some of the decisions the club will face in the not-too-distant future.
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