Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
A 9.5 game lead in late June is usually a pretty comfortable cushion. Well, it's not when one of your divisional rivals goes on a historic tear in the second half of the season. While the Dodgers went 42-8 over a 50 game stretch, the D'Backs faltered and lost control of the NL West. This year, they're looking to get to the top of the totem pole and remain there through September.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Montero, C: $50MM through 2017
- Aaron Hill, 2B: $35MM through 2016
- Martin Prado, 3B: $33MM through 2016
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $32MM through 2018
- Trevor Cahill, SP: $19.7MM through 2015
- Cody Ross, OF: $17MM through 2015
- Heath Bell, RP: $9MM through 2014 ($4MM of salary will be paid for by Marlins)
- Brandon McCarthy, SP: $9MM through 2014
- J.J. Putz, RP: $7MM through 2014
- Cliff Pennington, INF: $2.75MM through 2014
- David Hernandez, RP: $2MM through 2014
- Matt Reynolds, RP: $550K through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)
- Brad Ziegler, RP (5.122): $5MM
- Gerardo Parra, OF (4.145): $4.2MM
- Joe Thatcher, RP (5.019): $2MM
- Tony Sipp, RP (4.138): $1.4MM
- Daniel Hudson, SP (3.117): $1.1MM
- Josh Collmenter, RP (2.000): $900K
Free Agents
What do the Diamondbacks need to address right from the top? General Manager Kevin Towers says he'd like to add a power-hitting corner outfielder to the lineup to help protect first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. The funny thing is, Arizona had that type of player in guys like Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Jason Kubel (even though he was struggling in 2013) but they've all been shipped elsewhere. Gerardo Parra has right field locked down and Adam Eaton should be slotted in at either center field or left field. While there are already internal options like the defensively sharp A.J. Pollock and the currently injured Cody Ross, neither one offers the aforementioned pop that they're seeking. Don't expect the Diamondbacks to go after this year's elite power-hitting outfielders (i.e. Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson), but they'll have less pricey options to choose from as well. Possible fits might include Mike Morse and Corey Hart, even though there are question marks about their ability to play well in the outfield.
If they can't find the right bat at the right price in left or center field, they could get a little creative and move Martin Prado to left and put a bopper at the hot corner instead. The D'Backs won't find a strong crop of third basemen with pop on the open market, however. Looking at the trade block, it seems likely that the Padres will listen on Chase Headley this winter as he takes his final turn through arbitration, but it's hard to imagine that San Diego will be willing to move him within the division. Even if the D'Backs are willing to part with the type of young talent to pry Headley away, they'll have to find the cash to lock him up beyond 2014. Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez could make sense as a trade target.
There' are other ways that the Diamondbacks can take care of their corner outfield situation on the trade market. Even with free agent Willie Bloomquist likely out of the picture, Arizona has two young shortstops in Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings. If the D'Backs commit to one player over the other, they could parlay their mini-surplus into something useful elsewhere. The Pirates could come calling for an upgrade over Jordy Mercer, who wasn't consistently sharp at the plate. The Reds could get by with Zack Cozart at shortstop, but it also wouldn't hurt to find someone better. The Cardinals have Pete Kozma and the Mets could hope for a better effort from Ruben Tejada, but you can add those clubs to the mix as well.
Arizona is also working with a surplus of starters and could use that to fill some holes. Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, Randall Delgado, Tyler Skaggs, and top prospect Archie Bradley are all in the fold. Of course, it'll take a heck of an offer to pry Bradley away from the D'Backs.
The bullpen was supposed to be a major bright spot for the Diamondbacks in 2013 but it didn't turn out that way. J.J. Putz was in place as the D'Backs' closer for much of the season but his injury troubles gave Brad Ziegler an opportunity to seize the gig after Heath Bell showed that he couldn't hold it down. There are plenty of quality pitchers already in Arizona, but they have to perform up to their abilities. Bell, who is now two years removed from his All-Star form, is under contract for one more season. David Hernandez had an up-and-down year – with the down resulting in a demotion to Triple-A – but the light turned on in the fall as hitters averaged a .405 OPS against him in September. There could be an opening for a southpaw or two, depending on what the club does with Joe Thatcher and Tony Sipp who are both eligible for arbtration. It doesn't appear that the bullpen will require a complete overhaul, but a few new faces might be a good idea. The D'Backs can look into hard-throwing free agents like Jesse Crain to help build a better bridge to Ziegler.
One of the Diamondbacks' lesser priorities this season will be to address the backup catcher situation. Wil Nieves gave Arizona better offense than expected in 2013 (.297/.320/.369 in 206 plate apperances), but he wasn't sharp defensively. If the Pirates don't retain John Buck, he could be a more stabilizing force behind the plate in support of Miguel Montero.
Ultimately, the D'Backs probably aren't headed for a major overhaul this winter, but they'll look at add a few key pieces to their talented roster. With a bit of good health and good luck, Arizona can keep the Dodgers out of their pool in 2014.
Arbitration Eligibles: Arizona Diamondbacks
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Diamondbacks are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Brad Ziegler (5.122): $5MM
- Gerardo Parra (4.145): $4.2MM
- Joe Thatcher (5.019): $2MM
- Tony Sipp (4.138): $1.4MM
- Daniel Hudson (3.117): $1.1MM
- Josh Collmenter (3.000): $900K
- Matt Reynolds (3.046): Avoided arbitration. $550K for 2014, $600K club option with a $50K buyout for '15
Due to the struggles of the team's other relievers, Ziegler ascended to the Diamondbacks' closer role in July and ended up recording 13 saves and 11 holds. He projects to earn a nice $5MM salary in his contract year, and it seems possible the D'Backs try to tack on an additional season.
Parra had one of the quietest 4.6 win seasons you'll see, due mainly to his exceptional defense in right and center field. Defense doesn't generally pay in arbitration, but if Parra picks up another Gold Glove award he might see a salary boost from it. He also set career bests with 10 home runs and 79 runs scored. Parra's skillset is destined to remain undervalued, but with free agency coming up after 2015, an extension might be wise for Arizona.
Thatcher was the biggest name the D'Backs received for two-plus years of Ian Kennedy, and he had several rough outings in the weeks following the trade. The team would look pretty bad in cutting him loose this winter, but a non-tender or trade remains possible. Sipp seems a good bet to be non-tendered following a lackluster season. Collmenter, working full-time in relief for the first time, put together a strong 92-inning campaign and will be a part of next year's bullpen.
Hudson had Tommy John surgery in July 2012 and was close to returning this summer when he unfortunately re-tore his elbow ligament. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic talked to Reds chief medical director Tim Kremcheck in June, who said the failure rate of a second Tommy John procedure is in the 40-50% range. In that article, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers suggested Hudson has a better chance of returning as a reliever this time. As Hudson later noted to Piecoro in September, "I’m in a pretty weird situation going into my first year of arbitration." In that article, Towers talked about being creative in advance of the December 2nd non-tender deadline, and Hudson says he would like to stay. If nothing can be worked out by the deadline, a non-tender does not seem out of the question.
There is a good amount of uncertainty with Hudson and Thatcher. But if those two plus Ziegler, Parra, and Collmenter are tendered contracts, the Diamondbacks are looking at an estimated $13.2MM for five arbitration eligible players, plus $600K for Reynolds to bring the total to $13.8MM.
Manager Notes: Gibson, Tigers, Jewett, Ripken
With Bryan Price set to take the helm in Cincinnati, Jim Leyland leaving Detroit, and Don Mattingly making something of a power play in L.A., today was a busy day on the field staff front. Here are some other notes on managerial situations around the league:
- We can expect a trend moving away from high-profile managerial hirings, says Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. With both of the current World Series contenders relying on under-the-radar options who had experience in their organizations, other teams may follow suit. (Indeed, the Reds seem to have done just that.)
- He may be a Tigers hero, but Kirk Gibson will remain the Diamondbacks skipper, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Both club and manager apparently assured each other that they want to continue the relationship into next year, according to team CEO Derrick Hall, although Hall also acknowledged that the team had declined to exercise options it held to control Gibson through the 2016 season.
- While that takes one possible option away from the Tigers as they look to find a Leyland replacement, the team will take its time assessing a wide field of potential candidates, writes MLB.com's Jason Beck. The team does have internal options with managerial experience in Gene Lamont and Lloyd McClendon — the latter of whom is a more likely target — and Dombrowski says he has no intentions of "chang[ing] the culture" after a nice run of success.
- The Nationals have interviewed the club's third base coach, Trent Jewett, for its opening, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. He joins bench coach Randy Knorr and outside candidates Matt Williams and Brad Ausmus as options that have had the chance to chat with GM Mike Rizzo. Both Jewett and Knorr are said to have interviewed strongly, Kilgore tweets, but for his money Williams is the odds-on favorite at the moment.
- Meanwhile, Kilgore further reports, Cal RIpken is not looking like a realistic possibility to take over in D.C. Kilgore also explores whether the opening in Detroit might impact the Nats' plans, concluding that it likely will not.
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Adair, Rothschild, Williams
As is the case at the end of every season, there have been quite a few shakeups to coaching staffs around the game. Here's the latest on several situations around the league…
- Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that Rick Adair will not return as the Orioles pitching coach in 2014. Bullpen coach Bill Castro, who was named the team's interim pitching coach when Adair left the team to be with his dying father, is unlikely to be a candidate. The same goes for rehab coordinator Scott McGregor. The rest of the coaching staff will return, according to Kubatko.
- The Yankees and pitching coach Larry Rothschild have agreed to terms on a new deal, though nothing has been finalized or announced yet, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
- Kilgore tweets that the Nationals interviewed Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams for their managerial opening recently.
Earlier Updates
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Angels have hired Don Baylor as their hitting coach. The 64-year-old Baylor has served as the D-Backs' hitting coach since 2011 and has 21 years of coaching experience to go along with a 19-year playing career that saw him take home AL MVP honors when he played for the Angels in 1979. Arizona had asked him to return for 2014, but the Halos have announced that Baylor opted to take the position in Anaheim.
- Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times points out some history between Angels GM Jerry Dipoto and Baylor, noting that Baylor was Dipoto's manager when Dipoto served as the Rockies' closer in 1997-98 (Twitter link).
- The Blue Jays nearing a deal with former Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer to fill the same role in Toronto, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter). Seitzer, a career .295/.375/.404 hitter in a 12-year big league career, has experience working with Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. Gibbons served as the Royals' bench coach for part of Seitzer's tenure with the club.
- Brad Ausmus is on the list of Nationals' managerial candidates, tweets Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal notes that it's unclear whether or not Ausmus has interviewed, though Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post indicated that the interview has yet to take place (also via Twitter).
- Kilgore writes in a full article for the Post that as of late last week, the Nats have yet to conduct any interviews. Bench coach Randy Knorr and third base coach Trent Jewett are still the strongest internal candidates, says Kilgore.
- Arash Markazi of ESPN Los Angeles provides readers with several quotes from Angels skipper Mike Scioscia's appearance on ESPNLA 710 radio. Scioscia says that he and Dipoto went through a series of "aggressive" meetings with ownership before they were informed they would return for the 2014 season. Scioscia said there's "no doubt" that he's on the same page as ownership and the front office after those talks.
Diamondbacks Avoid Arbitration With Matt Reynolds
3:02pm: Reynolds will earn $550K in 2014 and there's a club option for the following year worth $600K, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter).
11:42am: The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with left-hander Matt Reynolds by agreeing to a one-year contract with a club option for the 2015 season.
Reynolds, 29, was enjoying an outstanding season in his first year with the Snakes before going down with a left elbow strain. That injury resulted in the worst possible outcome for team and player, as Reynolds ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery on Sept. 24.
In 27 1/3 innings for the D-Backs this season, Reynolds had a pristine 1.98 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. By locking him up for 2014 and securing a club option for 2015, the Diamondbacks gain some cost certainty over an asset who is controlled through the 2016 season. Arizona acquired Reynolds last November in a rare intra-division trade that sent third baseman Ryan Wheeler to the Rockies.
Sherman’s Latest: Tanaka, Kuroda, Red Sox
On Friday it was reported that the Yankees are expected to be serious players for Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. While many teams figure to be in the mix, the New York Post's Joel Sherman offered up a look at why the Yankees, specifically, will be motivated to sign Tanaka. Here are some of the highlights from Sherman's latest work…
- The Yankees want to re-energize their fanbase and generate interest in buying tickets again, and adding Tanaka would allow them to do so without shattering the luxury tax threshold, as the posting fee wouldn't go against that figure. Sherman spoke with multiple executives who told him that each team is set to receive about $25MM from national TV revenue, and the Yankees also received a good chunk of money when News Corp. bought 49 percent of the YES Network. As Sherman puts it: "The Yanks have a big pile of newfound money to use lavishly for a posting bid."
- Sherman also lists the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays as suitors for Tanaka.
- The Yankees may be extra-motivated to sign Tanaka due to the fact that many within the organization believe Hiroki Kuroda is leaning toward returning to Japan to finish his career.
- In a separate piece, Sherman writes that Boston's decision on whether or not to tender qualifying offers to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will shape the market. Sherman spoke with four Major League executives — two from the AL and two from the NL — and asked about the Red Sox quartet's chances at receiving a qualifying offer. All four agreed that Ellsbury will receive one. Both AL execs and one of the NL expected Napoli to receive an offer, while just one of the NL execs thought that Drew and Saltalamacchia would get offers. Sherman offers his own expectation as well, predicting that all four will receive qualifying offers.
NL West Notes: Giants, Towers, Rockies, Padres
Let's start the weekend off with a few notes out of the National League's West division:
- Don't expect any big news on the Giants' major off-season decisions until after the World Series, says Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Sulia). The team has five days after the end of the post-season to decide whether to pick up Ryan Vogelsong's option and to decide whether to issue Tim Lincecum a qualifying offer. Otherwise, Schulman says, the club is not likely to make reliever Javier Lopez a "pre-emptive offer" and has only engaged in "preliminary" talks with Lincecum to date.
- Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is simply wrong when he says that the team's issues stem from a lack of toughness, writes Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic, who says that the club's mediocrity stems from a lack of talent for which Towers himself is responsible. In support of the latter half of that thesis, Bickley says Towers overvalued reliever Heath Bell, dealt Justin Upton only to say he'll be shopping for power in the corners, and sold low on starter Ian Kennedy.
- Another front office tandem — Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett of the Rockies – have gotten by on mediocrity for too long, says Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post. Nevertheless, he reports, owner Dick Monfort seems to have no intention of making a change. "Continuity here is very important," said Monfort. "I really don't believe that either one of them has done a poor job."
- Addressing a variety of Padres topics in a fan chat, Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune said that he believes the Friars could be active on the trade market and may look to deal arms like Robbie Erlin, Burch Smith, or possibly Eric Stults given the depth at the back of the team's rotation. He says the club is more interested in adding a big bat in a deal, though it could still tack on some arms via free agency.
Managerial/Coaching Rumors: Nagy, Yankees, Price
As reported earlier today, the Cubs are considering such names as Manny Acta, A.J. Hinch and Rick Renteria to be their new manager, though it seems they're prepared to top any offer Joe Girardi might receive from the Yankees. Here's the latest on some managerial openings and coaching candidates from around baseball…
- The Diamondbacks have fired pitching coach Charles Nagy, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Nagy had served in the role for the previous three seasons.
- Don Mattingly tops the list of potential candidates ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand thinks could be the next Yankees manager if Girardi isn't re-signed. While Dodgers management has praised Mattingly, the fact that they haven't yet exercised their $1.4MM team option on Mattingly for 2014 has raised some speculation about Mattingly's job security in Los Angeles.
- Internal Yankees candidates such as Pete Mackanin, Tony Pena, Don Wakamatsu and Dave Miley are also on Marchand's list, while high-profile names like Dusty Baker, Tony La Russa and Lou Piniella are seen as long shots.
- Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said he was interested in the team's manager job, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports (Twitter link), though Price didn't further comment on the topic. Price has been cited as the possible favorite internal candidate to succeed Baker as Cincinnati's skipper.
- Several interested parties have already contacted Reds GM Walt Jocketty about the job, Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, though franchise legend Barry Larkin isn't one of them. The team is "just scratching the surface" on their search, Jocketty said, and hasn't yet made plans to interview first base coach Billy Hatcher or bench coach Chris Speier. The Reds will probably begin interviewing candidates next week.
- Joe Espada, the Marlins third base coach for the last four seasons, could receive some interviews for a manager's job this winter, a scout tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. At the very least, Espada will be pursued for coaching jobs on Major League rosters. The Marlins themselves see Espada as a potential future skipper and thus assigned him to manage their Class A team in Jupiter for 2014 to gain experience.
- Blue Jays hitting coach Chad Mottola and first base coach Dwayne Murphy (who is retiring) will not return next season, the Jays announced via press release. Mottola took over from Murphy as Toronto's hitting coach before the 2013 season. The rest of the Blue Jays' coaches will return in 2014.
- The Padres will retain their entire coaching staff next season, the club announced.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Price, Cano
Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter want to be starters again, but they've already proven themselves to be successful in the bullpen, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. While manager Buck Showalter will work to stretch them out in spring training, its possible that the O's would have sent Matusz to Triple-A Norfolk to work as a starter if that were an option. Here's more out of the AL East..
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post reached out to nine baseball executives yesterday to ask if they felt David Price would get moved this winter and they all said yes. Price, like Matt Garza and James Shields when they were dealt from Tampa Bay, is two years away from free agency, meaning that this is the time to move him. The Rangers came up most often as the most likely destination followed by the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Padres, Red Sox, Giants, and Reds.
- The perception around baseball that free agent Robinson Cano doesn't work hard could hurt his value, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post says that's its an unfair label. The second baseman has a tendency to not run out grounders, but generally speaking, he has impeccable work habits. “When he hits a groundball to the second baseman or shortstop, I know what it looks like,” hitting coach Kevin Long said. “I get it. I know it is part of the perception. He’s been talked to a million times about it. But I am telling you that is not a true picture of how hard he works or cares, and so if that is his only downfall, it is not the worst thing in the world.”
- Kubatko revisited the Orioles' trade for Bud Norris and wonders if it will be worthwhile when all is said and done.
Diamondbacks Claim Alex Sanabia
The Diamondbacks have claimed pitcher Alex Sanabia off waivers from the Marlins, according to a team press release. Sanabia, 25, posted a 4.88 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 55 1/3 innings out of the Marlins rotation this season. In late May, the Marlins placed Sanabia on the disabled list with a groin injury, and he did not appear again in 2013. He has a 4.15 ERA in parts of three big-league seasons.
Sanabia is a fly ball pitcher whose fastball typically comes in at around 90 MPH, and he has never posted impressive strikeout rates, so his upside appears to be somewhat limited. Teams typically value pitchers who are capable of making big-league starts, however, particularly when they aren't yet arbitration-eligible.