Olney’s Latest: Royals, Managers, Dunn, Berkman
In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney says that even though things aren't going so well for the Royals at the big league level, rival scouts and executives gush about the quality of their farm system. "Our goal is by 2012 and 2013 to have as many homegrown guys playing as we can," said GM Dayton Moore, which Olney likens to the way the Twins and Rays are built.
Here are the rest of his rumors…
- One scout opined that we're likely to see more managerial changes this offseason than ever before. Olney lists 12 teams that could be looking for a new manager this winter, and reminds us that Tony LaRussa, Joe Girardi, and Dusty Baker do not have contracts in place for beyond this season.
- The Nationals are concerned about whether or not Adam Dunn's body will hold up during a three or four-year deal, but Olney spoke to one AL evaluator who pointed out that Dunn's ability to hit homers is gaining more value as time goes on.
- The Diamondbacks have prioritized the acquisition of a closer, hence their request for Joba Chamberlain in a potential Dan Haren trade.
- Olney speculates that Lance Berkman could be a fit for the Rays next year, since they'll need to replace Carlos Pena.
Dan Haren Rumors: Friday
The D’Backs have started exchanging names with teams about possible Dan Haren trades and the Tigers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals and Twins appear to have varying degrees of interest in the righty. That’s just the abbreviated version of what we heard yesterday, but there’s more. The D’Backs’ asking price? High-quality major league-ready pitching. With that in mind, here are today’s Dan Haren rumors, with more to come:
- Updating his earlier story, Magruder quotes Hall, the D'Backs CEO, as saying: "There are some other teams involved that have deals of at least equal value out there. I would not categorize the Yankees as a front-runner."
- In a piece for FOXSportsArizona.com, Jack Magruder notes that the Yankees aren't one of the teams that require Haren's approval. Magruder also suggests a trade with the Yanks could involve New York taking on other players that the D'Backs would like to move, such as Aaron Heilman, Chad Qualls, or Chris Snyder.
- D'Backs' CEO Derrick Hall tells Piecoro (Twitter link) that there's no clear front-runner for Haren and reiterates "nothing [is] imminent." However, most reports still indicate that the Yanks are the favorite. AOL FanHouse's Frankie Piliere (via Twitter) and Morosi both hear that Ivan Nova could be a key piece in a Haren trade with New York.
- Expanding on his earlier tweet, Price hears that nothing is imminent between the Yankees and Arizona, but that the D'Backs "seem determined" to move Haren before his next start on Tuesday.
- According to Rosenthal, the Yankees appear to be the front-runners for Haren now, with the D'Backs telling clubs that they're in "advanced negotiations" with one team. Ed Price of AOL FanHouse adds (via Twitter) that the Cardinals may be out of the Haren sweepstakes.
- The Yankees are actively talking to the D’Backs about Haren, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. If the Yanks can acquire Haren for prospects, Stark says they are poised to accelerate talks.
- The Cardinals aim to add an innings-eater this summer, though not necessarily an ace, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- The Tigers and Twins, who both have interest in Haren, are on his no-trade list, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Haren would also have to approve a trade to the Rays or Reds. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the Twins were on Haren's list.
- The D'Backs have told rival teams that they are intent on moving Haren before the deadline, according to Olney (via Twitter).
- MLB executives tell ESPN.com’s Buster Olney that the D’Backs seem much more willing to deal Haren these days. Some talent evaluators believe the Tigers would have a tough time building an offer for Haren without including pitching prospect Jacob Turner.
- A D'Backs source tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that expectations have shifted and it seems more likely that the D'Backs will trade Haren.
Many Teams Pursuing Dan Haren
7:00pm: Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the D'Backs are looking for pitching in exchange for Haren. Derrick Hall tells Piecoro that the team would need an "A-plus" offer to deal their ace.
"Ideally what we would ask for is major-league ready pitching, be it starters and/or bullpen, and prospects,” Hall said. “The volume doesn’t matter. It doesn’t need to be four or five or six guys. It’s really about the quality.”
6:20pm: Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall tells MLB.com's Steve Gilbert that a Haren trade, if it occurs, "will not be [a] salary dump." (Twitter link)
4:05pm: The Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals and Twins are also pursuing Haren, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The D’Backs are not close to a deal with anyone.
We should note that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported last night that the Twins are 'barely monitoring' Haren, since they're on his no-trade list (Twitter link).
2:08pm: The Diamondbacks are exchanging names with teams interested in Dan Haren and the Detroit Tigers are among the clubs with 'serious' interest in the right-hander, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (all Twitter links). The Tigers' interest is not surprising, since they need rotation help, have three high-priced pitchers coming off the books next season and scouted Haren (along with the Phillies) last night.
Haren can block deals to a dozen teams, but would consider allowing a trade, depending on the situation. The Cardinals and Phillies are among the teams interested in Haren. He won't come cheap, but as one MLB official explained to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, Haren's price may be dropping.
"[The D'Backs are] starting to get more reasonable," the official said. "Before, they were asking for two starting pitchers off your major league roster. Now they're talking prospects, so I think they've gotten realistic. I definitely think he's moving now."
Haren makes $12.75MM in 2011 and 2012, and there's a $3.5MM buyout for a $15.5MM option in 2013.
Padres Rumors: Gonzalez, Bell, Byrnes, Hinch
The All-Star Game mattered more than usual to the Padres this year, and not just because they're in contention and may benefit from the NL's win. Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse has the details:
- The cost of Adrian Gonzalez’s option for 2011 has risen from $5.5MM to $6.2MM since the first baseman reached many incentives. Gonzalez boosted the cost of the Padres’ option by making three All-Star teams and winning a pair of Gold Gloves.
- Padres closer Heath Bell will be "ticked off" if he doesn’t get a bonus for making this year’s All-Star team, but Padres CEO Jeff Moorad forbids player bonuses (he wasn't the one who negotiated Gonzalez's incentives).
- Two recently-fired members of the D’Backs organization could join Moorad in San Diego. Krasovic continues hearing that Josh Byrnes and A.J. Hinch are “tight” with Moorad, who was a D'Backs executive until last year.
- Spending cuts are looming in Arizona, according to Krasovic.
Crasnick On The Bullpen Market
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick does a nice job profiling the underwhelming market for relievers. The Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, Phillies, and Twins could be looking to make an acquisition. A few tidbits…
- The Astros "will gladly talk about Brandon Lyon, but aren't so interested in discussing Matt Lindstrom." Lyon is still owed $12.48MM through 2012.
- Crasnick points out that Octavio Dotel is not a pitcher you want facing lefties. How about D.J. Carrasco? He's quietly having another decent year, he's cheap, and he's under team control through 2012. Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweeted yesterday that at least five teams have inquired.
- Crasnick finds "the consensus" to be that Mariners closer David Aardsma will be dealt before the deadline. The Tigers have been linked to the hard-throwing righty, whose ERA is up several runs this year despite his strikeout and walk rates remaining stable. Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times feels the Mariners would need their socks knocked off to move Aardsma.
- Chad Qualls, Clay Hensley, and most of the Brewers' and Royals' pens also merit consideration as trade bait.
Angels Discussed Cantu, LaRoche
Jorge Cantu and Adam LaRoche are among the names the Angels have discussed, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Those veteran rentals could help the Halos at first base, but changing leagues is said to be a big factor for the Angels. Alberto Callaspo wouldn't be making the change; Rosenthal says the Royals infielder is on the Angels' short list. Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles first reported that target yesterday afternoon.
Regarding the first base situation, the Angels are said to prefer a rental player since Kendry Morales will be back next year. Aside from Cantu and LaRoche, the market features Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Xavier Nady, Lyle Overbay, and others. Despite the name value, keep in mind that many of these first basemen are having lackluster seasons.
Cardinals Focused On Westbrook, Haren
The Cardinals are trying to acquire a starting pitcher, wrote Ed Price of AOL FanHouse last night, and they're focused on Jake Westbrook and Dan Haren.
Recently we summed up the market for both pitchers. Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch ten days ago that he expected to "shy from a rental deal that requires us to give up a ton of talent." Neither Westbrook nor Haren fits that description, so it makes sense that they'd be in play for newly-extended GM John Mozeliak.
Haren Would Consider Trades
Dan Haren told Jack Magruder of FOXSportsArizona.com that he would accept a trade under the right circumstances. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported this weekend, Haren can veto deals to 12 teams, thanks to a clause in his contract. Haren does have his preferences, though he would consider trades.
“I was born and raised on the West Coast,” he said. “Obviously staying on the West Coast would be nice. If I went to the East, if a trade came with a team on my no-trade [list], I would have to consider it.”
Haren realizes his unspectacular 2010 numbers and substantial (but team-friendly) contract may make it tricky for the Diamondbacks to complete a trade. The D’Backs have not received concrete offers for Haren, though the Phillies appear to be discussing a deal for a top pitcher.
Haren has a 4.60 ERA this season, with 8.9 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. He is set to earn $12.75MM in each of the next two seasons, and his team will have the option of paying him $15.5MM in 2013 or buying him out for $3.5MM.
Phillies Exploring Oswalt, Werth Trades
The Phillies are exploring acquiring Roy Oswalt and moving Jayson Werth in a companion trade, reports ESPN's Jayson Stark. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says nothing is close, but Ed Price of AOL FanHouse says the Oswalt talks are "heavy." Oswalt has yet to be presented with a deal for his approval. Stark says the Phils have also discussed Dan Haren, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ben Sheets as they leave no rock unturned. As for Werth, Stark believes the Rays "head the list of interested teams." The impending free agent would be moved to save money, stock the farm system, and open up a spot for Domonic Brown. Stark says the Red Sox, Giants, and Padres are also interested in Werth.
The Phillies recently optioned Kyle Kendrick to the minors and lost Jamie Moyer to an elbow strain, so they could use starting pitching depth. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. hinted today that the club could acquire a starter by Saturday. The Phils have already committed $135MM to next year's payroll, so adding an expensive arm like Haren or Oswalt would take some maneuvering.
One candidate to start Saturday, or perhaps be traded, is J.A. Happ. Stark says the Phillies have shopped the lefty, and the Astros scouted him on Tuesday.
Click here to predict the Phillies next move.
The Dan Haren Market
Diamondbacks interim GM Jerry Dipoto recently told CBS' Scott Miller, "We're not to the point right now where we're aggressively seeking [a Dan Haren trade]." Still, it's time for us to summarize the Haren situation.
Contract
Haren signed a four-year, $44.75MM extension in August of 2008 under previous GM Josh Byrnes. He has $3.45MM left this year, $12.75MM in 2011, $12.75MM in '12, and a $15.5MM club option for '13 with a $3.5MM buyout. In other words, Haren is guaranteed $32.45MM through 2012. If Haren had never signed the extension and hit free agency after this year at age 30, would he top two years, $29MM plus a club option? His next dozen starts are a factor, and maybe in this cautious time he wouldn't reach John Lackey money. But I still view the contract as a bargain relative to the free agent market.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported this weekend that Haren's no-trade clause allows him to block trades to a dozen teams, including the Reds. Rosenthal's source did not feel that Haren's no-trade list would be a factor, however.
Performance
Home runs and hits allowed are up this year for Haren, who has a 4.60 ERA through 20 starts. Though Haren's groundball rate is down a touch, his continually strong strikeout and walk rates suggest a pitcher capable of a sub-4.00 ERA from here on out. Since 2006, Haren has posted significantly higher ERAs in the second half. Is this a reliable trend? Haren's home run per flyball rate seems to jump every August. This could be a fluke – the Sabermetrics Library says home run per flyball rates "have little predictive value" year to year. It doesn't help that Chase Field inflates home runs by about 7%, according to The Bill James Handbook.
Asking Price/Availability
We have no trade history for Dipoto, as he's been a GM for less than a month. He told Miller he's not sure if trading Haren is smart business, but "what we do know is what value Dan brings to this team and what value he should hold in the market." All things considered, Haren is probably the best available starting pitcher. SI's Jon Heyman talked to one GM who described Dipoto's asking price as "two starters plus bullpen help." Earlier this month, Rosenthal and Bob Nightengale of USA Today both said the D'Backs would need to be "overwhelmed" or "blown away" to trade Haren. Dipoto was upfront to Miller about his reservations, saying "you might bite off your nose to spite your face" by trading the ace.
Interested Teams
- Tigers: Miller says they "appeared to be the only club with a scout dispatched solely to bird-dog Haren" Friday night. Back in May I noted that the Tigers should have over $50MM to play with for 2011 if they hold payroll steady, so they could afford Haren. The Tigers have plenty of young starters that would appeal to the D'Backs.
- Cardinals: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cards have interest in bringing Haren back and do have payroll capacity. Still, they'd be committing half their payroll to the rotation in 2011.
- Rockies: Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post doesn't feel that they'd overpay for Haren.
- Yankees: A case could be made for the Yanks adding Haren. However, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that their top two priorities are improving the bench and adding a reliever.
- Phillies: ESPN's Jerry Crasnick said they have Haren on the radar, though David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News wondered if they'd even have the prospects to pull it off.
- Nationals: MLB.com's Bill Ladson reported on June 30th that they had expressed interest. GM Mike Rizzo craves "premier, front-line starting pitching." With Haren, the Nats would have a fearsome rotation in short order.
- Angels: Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times finds Haren to be "a natural trade target" for the Halos.
- I imagine other clubs would be interested. In my opinion, the White Sox, Brewers, Twins, Mets, and Padres could be fits, though the field becomes limited when you consider Arizona's asking price.