Starting Pitchers Linked Entering 2011
Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley and John Danks all went to arbitration for the first time before last season and all settled for contracts in the $3-4MM range. The four pitchers went to arbitration again this offseason and settled for contracts within the $5.75-$6.3MM range. A year from now, they will become points of reference for the class of pitchers just behind them (those currently entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible players). Here's a list of pitchers who could be compared to the quartet above after the 2011 season:
- Mike Pelfrey, $3.925MM in 2011 - Pelfrey already has a tremendous amount of big league experience and a fourth consecutive season of 30-plus starts could push his 2012 asking price past the $6.28MM Billingsley will earn in 2011, especially considering Pelfrey's high 2011 salary. Pelfrey doesn't have particularly impressive strikeout numbers or ERAs, however, which will help the Mets keep the right-hander's salary in check.
- Dallas Braden, $3.35MM in 2011 - Garza was working from the same base salary in 2010 and he earned a $2.6MM raise after logging 204 2/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in the AL East with a 2.4 K/BB ratio. If Braden wants to match Garza's raise, he'll have to earn it with another big year.
- Jair Jurrjens, $3.25MM in 2011 - Jurrjens is well-positioned to ask for a salary in the $6MM range next year if he returns to his 2008-09 level of productivity.
Guthrie, Garza, Billingsley and Danks all had relatively healthy, productive seasons in 2010, which kept their 2011 salaries within a $600K range. A poor performance would have disrupted the pattern and the same applies to this year's class. They have to pitch well and stay healthy to earn raises to the $6MM range. Meanwhile, others will have the chance to prove they belong in the same discussion as Pelfrey, Jurrjens and Braden if they have big years.
- Phil Hughes, $2.7MM in 2011 - Hughes, who has just one full season as a Major League starter, is starting from a lower base salary than the others, so he'd likely need a standout season to approach $6MM in 2012.
- Brandon Morrow, $2.3MM in 2011 - Morrow doesn't have the bulk numbers his peers do, so he's at a disadvantage. But he has flashed dominant stuff and if he continues pitching the way he did from June on last year, he could justify asking for a larger-than-usual raise.
Other starters, including Edinson Volquez and Kevin Slowey, are also entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible pitchers, but raises to the $6MM range seem extremely improbable given their current salaries and career numbers. The same goes for super two players Armando Galarraga, Kyle Kendrick, Ross Ohlendorf and Luke Hochevar.
Quick Hits: Overbay, Accardo, Diamond, Astros
Links for Sunday, as Opening Day inches a little closer….
- Ken Fidlin of The Toronto Sun spoke to Lyle Overbay, who said several teams showed interest in him this offseason, but "Pittsburgh was real aggressive." Overbay joined the Pirates on a one-year deal worth $5MM.
- Jeremy Accardo told Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun that the Orioles made it obvious how highly they valued him when they pursued him this offseason. "I'm happy to get a new, fresh start, a fresh look, a fresh mindset," said Accardo. "I think I stumbled into something pretty special here."
- The Twins are high on Scott Diamond, their Rule V Draft pick, and could swing a trade with the Braves to keep Diamond but send him to Triple-A, tweets Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
- Jordan Lyles could win the Astros' fifth starter job out of Spring Training, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. Lyles, just 20 years old, was selected 38th in the 2008 draft — a supplemental pick for losing Trever Miller to free agency. His main competition includes Nelson Figueroa and Ryan Rowland-Smith.
- Jason Giambi may have been joking when he informed Troy Renck of the Denver Post that he was going to try to stick around until teammate Troy Tulowitzki's contract expires in 2020. However, Giambi told SI.com's Jon Heyman that he does plan to play for as long as he can (Twitter links).
- After his two-year extension with the White Sox was announced, Matt Thornton spoke about the deal and expressed a desire to finish his career in Chicago. Scott Reifert has the details and quotes at MLB.com.
- In his latest Indians mailbag, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer discusses the signings of Orlando Cabrera and Chad Durbin, as well as the possibility of a Fausto Carmona trade.
- One of the minor leaguers the Marlins acquired in last summer's Jorge Cantu trade saw his first game action today since returning from Tommy John surgery, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
Cafardo On Rays, Cameron, Gonzalez, Hale
Jim Hickey has one of the most important roles in the American League this year, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Rays pitching coach is responsible for rebuilding a Rays bullpen that was depleted by free agency. Hickey says he expects at least one of the team's unheralded arms to break out unexpectedly, adding that if there's going to be a 2011 version of Joaquin Benoit, he'd put his money on Juan Cruz. Here are some of Cafardo's other Sunday notes:
- Domonic Brown has struggled this spring and is now set to undergo surgery on a broken hand. As such, Mike Cameron remains a potential fit for the Phillies. Cafardo argues that "the only problem with a Cameron-Phillies hookup is that he may be a very valuable member of the Red Sox now that he’s completely recovered from abdominal surgery."
- Alex Gonzalez doesn't like changing teams as much as he has in the last two seasons, and would have liked to stay in Toronto. Now that he's playing in Atlanta, the shortstop tells Cafardo that he'd "love to stay here for a long time." Gonzalez will be a free agent at season's end.
- DeMarlo Hale was interviewed for two managerial openings this past offseason, and Cafardo wonders if he'll be hired away from the Red Sox next winter. "Right now," Cafardo says, "there doesn’t appear to be an obvious place for a managerial change next season."
Quick Hits: Lawson, Franklin, Hanson
The Dodgers signed Garret Anderson exactly one year ago today. Earlier this week, Anderson retired as the all-time leader in a number of offensive categories for L.A.'s other team. Here are today's links…
- Indians GM Chris Antonetti explained to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer that the Tribe likes Matt Lawson's versatility and defense. They acquired the Double-A utility player for Aaron Laffey in a trade with the Mariners yesterday.
- One of Lawson's former minor league teammates, Nick Franklin, has switched agents and is now a client of the Boras Corporation, according to Conor Glassey of Baseball America (on Twitter).
- Another Scott Boras client, Tommy Hanson, had his contract renewed by the Braves, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman (on Twitter). When teams renew players' contracts, it means the sides did not agree to terms.
- Jerry Crasnick catches up with former can't-miss prospects Jeremy Hermida, Lastings Milledge and Jeff Francoeur in an enjoyable piece at ESPN.com.
East Notes: Lackey, Crawford, Dickey, Buck
Some links from the East – both AL and NL..
- After disappointing in the first year of his five-year, $82.5MM deal with the Red Sox, John Lackey is looking forward to putting 2010 behind him and meeting expectations, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
- More from Bradford as Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez recognize that the paths of Jayson Werth and Mark Teixeira helped lead them to Boston.
- Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey doesn't take his new found security for granted, writes David Waldstein of the New York Times.
- After dealing Dan Uggla to the Braves this winter, the Marlins are counting on catcher John Buck to help replace some of his power, writes MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
NL East Notes: Zimmermann, Marlins, Heyward
Players with zero to three years of service time are under team control and don't have the power to negotiate their salaries. Most of these players agree to terms with their clubs on deals worth $400-500K, but some don't agree to terms and their clubs renew their contracts instead (it doesn't affect the player's timeline for arbitration or free agency). Here's the latest on the NL East, including news on some contract renewals:
- The Nationals announced that they have renewed the contracts of right-handers Tyler Clippard and Jordan Zimmermann.
- The Marlins renewed the contracts of four of their own players, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post (on Twitter). The team did not agree to terms with Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Mike Stanton or Ryan Webb.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan shows that Jason Heyward is uncharacteristically mature for a 21-year-old. The Braves right fielder tells Passan that he can improve upon his standout rookie season, something that would please new manager Fredi Gonzalez.
Olney On Chipper, Sherrill, Torre, Gonzalez
Chipper Jones told ESPN.com's Buster Olney that he and Jim Thome met and complained "like two old grannies" last summer when Jones was struggling and Thome wasn't playing much. Thome finished strong and re-signed with the Twins and Jones is eager to play again, too. Here are the details on Jones and from around the majors:
- Jones says getting rest every week or ten days helps him stay strong throughout the season. The veteran third baseman has only played in 135 games once in the past six seasons because of a variety of injuries, so it makes sense to give him the occasional day off.
- The Phillies tried to sign George Sherrill this winter, before he signed with the rival Braves. Philadelphia sent executive Pat Gillick to see Sherrill and manager Charlie Manuel talked to him, but the left-hander wanted to play within driving distance of his father.
- Joe Torre makes about $2MM in his new job with MLB, according to Olney.
- Gio Gonzalez looks very, very good, according to a scout.
NL East Notes: Beltran, Cox, Vazquez
On this date five years ago, the Mets signed Pedro Feliciano, who had spent the previous season playing for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of the NPB. He posted a 3.09 ERA from 2006-10, appearing in more than half of the Mets' games during that time. Feliciano and his durable left arm still play for a New York team, but he will now show up for work at Yankee Stadium. Here's the latest on the NL East…
- Carlos Beltran says he'll move to right field to keep Angel Pagan in center. Beltran explained that Carlos Delgado and agent Scott Boras helped him make the decision, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Beltran, a free agent after the season, says he feels capable of playing center field, but wants to do what's best for the Mets.
- ESPN.com's Jayson Stark details the transition from Bobby Cox to Fredi Gonzalez, explaining that the Braves were not looking for something "dramatically different from the previous administration." Gonzalez says the Braves model is "really not broke," so he isn't looking to make radical changes.
- New acquisition Javier Vazquez was only throwing 88 mph yesterday, but the Marlins aren't concerned about his velocity, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post. Vazquez, who has consistently thrown 91-92 mph throughout his career, averaged 88.7 mph on his fastball last year.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Werth, Pavano, Jays, Rays
Seven years ago today, the Yankees signed Eduardo Nunez as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic. Now 23, Nunez is in the mix to be New York's utility infielder in 2011 after hitting .280/.321/.360 with more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) in his brief big league debut last season (53 PA).
Here are some more notes that have to do with the Yanks and their fellow AL East clubs…
- Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees "have told their scouts to bear down on several teams they think could have starters available" in a trade this summer. The teams they are targeting include the Braves, Angels, A's, White Sox, and Cardinals according to Sherman.
- Jayson Werth told SI.com's Jon Heyman that he had a "great" meeting with the Red Sox earlier this offseason, after which he figured they would offer six years (Twitter link). They only offered five, so he ended up with the Nationals.
- Carl Pavano spoke to Kelsie Smith of The Pioneer Press about being pursued by the Yankees this offseason. "I don't think [the past] would be a hindrance, but there would have definitely been obstacles," said Pavano. "I'm not naïve enough to think that there wouldn't have been things I would have had to overcome, especially the trust of the fans and maybe some of the guys that were there. That's reality."
- Richard Griffin of The Toronto Star notes (on Twitter) that four of the Blue Jays' ten highest paid players are former closers: Jason Frasor, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel.
- When asked about the payroll disparity between his Rays and other teams in the division, Joe Maddon told Ken Davidoff of Newsday that he's "never seen a dollar bill throw a strike, or hit a homer, or whatever." (Twitter link)
Discussion: Should The Braves Shop Their Starters?
Earlier today, the Cardinals confirmed that Adam Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery, shelving him for all of 2011. Without last year's Cy Young runner-up, St. Louis will certainly be in the market for a pitching upgrade. They're not the only team that could use a rotation boost, however. The Yankees and Nationals would like to shore up their respective starting fives, as would the Indians, though they likely can't afford a hefty contract.
Despite the need for pitching around the league, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez doesn't expect the club to move any of its starters. Earlier today, Buster Olney noted that the Yankees have not inquired on veteran Tim Hudson but is sure that the club would love to have him. Fellow vet Derek Lowe could also hold some value, but the righty is owed $30MM across the next two seasons.
The rotation is rounded out with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens with Mike Minor, Rodrigo Lopez, Brandon Beachy as fifth-spot candidates, leaving the Braves with plenty of depth. Obviously, if Atlanta were to part with a hurler, they would opt to trade away Kenshin Kawakami, though finding a taker for his $6.67MM salary might be easier said than done. The club has dangled the 35-year-old for quite some time but might have to instead settle for selling him to a Japanese team, which would pick up half of his contract.
If you were in GM Frank Wren's position, would you sacrifice some of your pitching depth to upgrade elsewhere or would you prefer to hang on to your starters as insurance?