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The Best Fits For Alex Bregman

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MLBTR has looked at the potential markets for Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes in respective posts for Front Office subscribers. We'll continue that series with a look at the winter's #3 free agent.

Alex Bregman could land the largest contract for a non-Soto position player. MLBTR predicted the two-time World Series champ would get a seven-year pact valued at $182MM. Getting to seven years would distinguish Bregman from Matt Chapman, who would've been the offseason's other top option at third base had he not re-signed with the Giants for six years and $151MM. Bregman is a year younger and has a more consistent offensive track record, though he's not quite at Chapman's level defensively.

There have been a few small hints about how Bregman's market could shake out. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic suggested last month that the third baseman's camp might look for a deal that resembles Manny Machado's 11-year, $350MM extension from Spring Training 2023 rather than general market projections of a contract in the $175-200MM range.

Bregman getting to $300MM+ would be a huge surprise, though. Machado was already guaranteed $180MM at the time of his extension, so that contract amounted to five years and $170MM in new money. The Machado deal also came at a time when the Padres were signing off on a number of huge contracts during Peter Seidler's ownership tenure.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported a few weeks ago that the Astros were hoping to retain Bregman on something like a six-year, $156MM pact. That hasn't gotten a deal done, so his camp seems to be aiming higher. At the time, Nightengale wrote that Bregman and his representation at the Boras Corporation were at least looking to crack the $200MM mark.

Let's take a look at what teams could be involved.

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Everson Pereira Among Players Eligible For Fourth Option Year

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Yankees outfielder Everson Pereira and infielder Jorbit Vivas and Mets right-hander Max Kranick are eligible for a fourth option year, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. They join Red Sox right-hander Cooper Criswell in that regard; there’ll likely be additional such reports throughout the offseason.

After a player is added to the 40-man roster, they can typically be assigned to the minors in three additional seasons. If a player who is on the 40-man spends at least 20 days in the minors during a season, that subtracts one of those years. In certain circumstances, teams are allowed to option a player for a fourth season.

A player is eligible for a fourth option if they exhaust their three option years before they’ve played five professional seasons. MLB defines a professional season as one in which a player spent at least 90 days on an MLB or minor league active roster. Many players will spend a few years with a minor league affiliate before they’re added to a 40-man roster. As those count as professional seasons but are not option years, most players reach five seasons prior to running out of options.

Pereira and Vivas were each initially added to their clubs’ 40-man rosters during the 2021-22 offseason. They’ve both been optioned in each of the last three years. Neither Pereira nor Vivas appeared in a full “professional season” before 2021, however. Both players were at complexes or short-season affiliates between 2017-19, so neither got to 90 days on a minor league roster in any of those years. The minor league schedule was canceled in 2020 and did not count as a professional season. Vivas has logged four professional seasons (2021-24), while Pereira didn’t log a full minor league campaign until ’22.

Kranick first made it onto a 40-man roster after 2020. He’d already accrued two professional seasons at that point. He picked up a third in ’21 but spent almost all of the 2022-23 campaigns on the injured list. Kranick battled forearm issues and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned to health this year, his fourth professional season.

The extra option means these players can be sent back to the minors without landing on waivers. Vivas and Kranick could be on the 40-man roster bubble anyways. The extra option is most relevant with regards to Pereira, a former top prospect who underwent elbow surgery last June. If the Yankees had to decide between carrying him on the MLB roster or putting him on waivers, there’s a good chance they’d have opted for the latter route coming out of Spring Training. They’ll instead be able to send him back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to evaluate him for one more year.

Yankees, Giants Showing Interest In Willy Adames

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The Yankees and Giants are among the teams that have shown interest in Willy Adames, writes Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The market’s top shortstop has also been tied to the Astros, Phillies, Blue Jays, Braves and Red Sox throughout the offseason.

New York’s top priority is re-signing Juan Soto. They could know within the next few days whether Soto will stay in the Bronx or accept a $600MM+ offer elsewhere. If Soto walks, there’d be a lot of pressure on both owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman to land one or more players from the next tiers of free agency.

Adames and Alex Bregman are probably the next-best position players. Neither is going to come close to Soto’s contract, of course, but they could each land a deal in the $150-200MM range. While Bregman would be a more straightforward positional fit, it’s possible the organization could still have animosity over the third baseman’s role in the 2017 sign-stealing operation. Adames carries no such baggage.

The Yankees don’t need a shortstop. Anthony Volpe is one of the game’s top defensive infielders. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com wrote recently that the Yanks were unwilling to move Volpe off the position. Adames is reportedly willing to consider a position change, though it’s possible he’d sign with a team that’ll keep him at shortstop if he’s weighing multiple offers in the same price range.

Shortstop is the only infield position that is settled in the Bronx. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be in the mix at either second or third base. If Chisholm replaces Gleyber Torres at the keystone, the top internal third base possibilities are DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera and prospect Caleb Durbin. That’s not sufficient for a team trying to get back to the World Series. The Yankees could also upgrade at first base, where Ben Rice is the best in-house option.

Adames hasn’t played third base in the majors. He has 10 career games outside of shortstop, all of which came at second base during his 2018 rookie season. Shortstops usually move to other infield positions without issue. Adames has plus arm strength and athleticism. His typically strong defensive grades dipped this year because of a spike in errors, but there’s not much reason to believe he wouldn’t be an effective third baseman.

There’d be no need for a position change in San Francisco. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said at the start of the offseason that the Giants wanted to add a shortstop. That’d allow them to move Tyler Fitzgerald to second base, where he’s a better fit. San Francisco was linked to Ha-Seong Kim, the market’s #2 shortstop, a few weeks ago.

Kim is coming back from labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder. That makes him riskier than Adames but should dramatically reduce the price. While Adames is likely to sign for six or seven years, Kim could settle for a two-year deal that allows him to opt out after next season. The former Padres infielder also has an obvious connection to San Francisco skipper Bob Melvin.

Adames rejected a qualifying offer from the Brewers. The Yankees and Giants each exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year, so they’d pay the highest penalties to sign a qualified free agent. Either team would lose their second- and fifth-highest pick in next summer’s draft and $1MM from their 2026 international signing bonus pool.

Al Fitzmorris Passes Away

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Former big league right-hander Al Fitzmorris has passed away at 78. The Royals announced the news on Wednesday evening.

Fitzmorris was born in Buffalo but attended high school in San Diego. He signed with the White Sox as a 20-year-old. The 6’2″ righty never had an opportunity to get to the big leagues with Chicago. The Royals plucked him away as they built their first team via the expansion draft. Fitzmorris made seven relief appearances for the franchise’s inaugural team in 1969.

While he spent most of the ’69 season in Triple-A, Fitzmorris established himself on the MLB staff the following year. He posted middling numbers in a swing role between 1970-72. He took a step forward with 89 innings of 2.83 ERA ball in 1973 and excelled as a starter for the three seasons thereafter. Fitzmorris turned in a 2.79 ERA across 190 innings in ’74. He won 16 games with a 3.57 mark over a career-best 242 frames the next season. Between 1974-76, he led Kansas City with 652 1/3 innings. He posted a 44-29 record behind a cumulative 3.17 earned run average.

Fitzmorris was arguably the best pitcher on the ’76 team that won 90 games and earned the first playoff berth in franchise history. He ranked second on the club with 220 1/3 innings while turning in a 3.06 ERA that was the best mark among the team’s full-time starters. Nevertheless, skipper Whitey Herzog elected not to use Fitzmorris against the Yankees in that year’s AL Championship Series. New York advanced to the World Series on Chris Chambliss’ walk-off homer in the decisive fifth game.

That marked the end of Fitzmorris’ tenure in Kansas City. The Royals left him unprotected for the following winter’s expansion draft. He was selected by the Blue Jays, who immediately traded him to the Indians. Fitzmorris struggled to a 5.41 ERA over 29 appearances for Cleveland in ’77. He split the following year between the Indians and Angels. After one more season in Triple-A with San Diego, he retired.

Fitzmorris concluded his playing career with a 3.65 ERA over 1277 innings. He logged parts of 10 seasons in the majors and recorded a 77-59 record. Fitzmorris struck out 458 hitters and tossed 36 complete games, 11 of which were shutouts. The Royals announced that he returned to Kansas City after his playing days and remained involved with the franchise’s community and charity efforts. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, loved ones, former teammates and friends.

NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Post Koyo Aoyagi For MLB Clubs

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The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced last night that they’ve made right-hander Koyo Aoyagi available to major league teams via the posting system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that MLB has approved the posting, which opens a 45-day window for the pitcher to sign with a big league team.

Aoyagi, who turns 31 next week, seems to project as a depth arm. While he has worked as a starting pitcher for the Tigers, Aoyagi throws from a sidearm slot that’s more commonly found in the bullpen. He’s coming off a pedestrian season which he split almost evenly between the Tigers and their minor league affiliate. Aoyagi made 12 starts at Japan’s top level and pitched 11 times in the minors.

During his work at the highest level, he turned in a 3.69 ERA across 61 innings. His 13% strikeout rate would be nearly 10 percentage points below the MLB average. He showed decent but not exceptional control, walking 7.8% of batters faced. His career track record is a bit more impressive. He owns a 3.08 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout percentage across nine NPB campaigns. This was his second consecutive middling season, though. Aoyagi was tagged for a 4.57 ERA across 100 1/3 innings for the Tigers in 2023.

The 5’11” hurler pitched for Japan at the 2020 Olympics (held in Tokyo a year late as a result of the pandemic). Japan went 5-0 and won the gold medal, though Aoyagi was tagged for five runs in 1 2/3 innings across two appearances. He did not make the nation’s World Baseball Classic roster two years later.

Assuming the posting window officially opened today, Aoyagi will have until January 17 to sign with an MLB team. If he doesn’t find an offer to his liking, he’d remain with the Tigers. Aoyagi’s numbers suggest he could be limited to a minor league deal. If he signs with an MLB team, that club would also owe a release fee to the Hanshin Tigers. The fee is proportional to the size of the contract. In the very likely event that he signs for $25MM or less, the posting fee would be 20% of the guarantee.

Bidding For Juan Soto Has Reached At Least $600MM

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The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.

With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.

Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.

While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.

That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.

In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Red Sox Sign Aroldis Chapman

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The Red Sox announced the signing of Aroldis Chapman to a one-year contract. The deal reportedly guarantees the Wasserman client $10.75MM.

Boston becomes the left-hander’s fifth different team since 2022. Chapman is no longer the elite closer he was during his peak with the Reds and Yankees. He’s still an effective, if somewhat volatile, reliever despite scattershot command. He turned in a 3.79 ERA over 61 2/3 innings for the Pirates this year. Signed as a setup option in front of David Bednar, Chapman recorded 22 holds before taking over as closer for the struggling Bednar late in the season. He picked up 14 saves, his highest total in three years, and only surrendered five leads.

Even as he enters his age-37 season, Chapman is one of the league’s hardest-throwing relievers. He averaged 97.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball and 99.8 MPH on his sinker. While Chapman is no longer in a league of his own in terms of velocity, that’s rare arm speed from the left side. Among southpaws with at least five innings pitched, only Jose A. Ferrer and Gregory Soto threw their four-seamers harder on average. Chapman’s sinker velocity led all southpaws and ranked fourth in MLB overall, trailing Emmanuel Clase, Justin Martinez and Seth Halvorsen.

That high-octane stuff continues to lead to plenty of strikeouts. Chapman fanned 37% of batters faced with Pittsburgh. Among relievers with 20+ innings, Chapman ranked eighth in strikeout rate. His 14.7% walk percentage was the ninth-highest mark among that group. Fewer than half of his plate appearances ended with a ball in play. There’ll be a lot of free passes, but Chapman’s stuff is good enough that he still manages to work out of trouble more often than not.

This is the second bullpen pickup of the offseason for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and the Boston front office. They also brought in Justin Wilson last month to work in the middle innings. There could be room for one more addition with four Sox relievers hitting free agency. They’re expected to let Kenley Jansen walk and could also lose Chris Martin, Luis García and Lucas Sims. Liam Hendriks should be back from Tommy John surgery and is the favorite to replace Jansen as Alex Cora’s closer. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten should be their top setup option from the right side. Cam Booser and Brennan Bernardino, who had been their top internal lefties, profile as middle relievers rather than high-leverage arms.

Chapman did not place among MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents. That said, he was one of the best available lefties for teams that didn’t want to play at the top of the market for Tanner Scott. He earns a very slight raise relative to last winter, when he signed with Pittsburgh for $10.5MM.

The move brings the Red Sox’s estimated payroll, including arbitration projections, to roughly $148MM (courtesy of RosterResource). Boston is up to approximately $181MM in luxury tax obligations. They’re $60MM shy of the base tax threshold. CEO Sam Kennedy indicated the Sox could exceed the threshold, one of myriad comments from team brass signaling a big offseason. There’ll be a lot more to come from Breslow and company, who are one of five teams known to be involved on Juan Soto and have been tied to every top-end free agent starting pitcher.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the Red Sox and Chapman had made progress on a deal. Mike Rodriguez confirmed there was a deal in place. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the contract terms. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Discussing Front Office Role With Farhan Zaidi

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The Dodgers are in talks with Farhan Zaidi about a possible front office position, report Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Zaidi spent the last six seasons running baseball operations with the Giants. San Francisco fired him and tabbed Buster Posey as their new front office leader at the end of the regular season.

Zaidi is no stranger to the L.A. organization. He spent four seasons as Dodgers general manager between 2015-18. Zaidi was Andrew Friedman’s top lieutenant during that run. He departed to take over baseball operations in San Francisco during the 2018-19 offseason. Before landing in L.A., he worked his way up to assistant general manager in the A’s organization under Billy Beane.

The 48-year-old’s tenure in San Francisco was mixed. The Giants only made the playoffs once in Zaidi’s six years. That was a magical 2021 season that saw San Francisco win 107 games, narrowly topping the Dodgers for the NL West title. The Giants have essentially been a league average team in the three years since then. Much of Zaidi’s tenure was defined by a series of near misses in their pursuits of top free agents (i.e. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa after his failed physical).

Zaidi’s front office had a knack for developing unheralded targets into productive role players or solid regulars. They hit on low-cost acquisitions of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada, for instance. Yet the Giants rarely had the high-end talent necessary to compete with star-studded rosters in Los Angeles and San Diego. That persisted even after San Francisco landed Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler late last offseason.

Even if Zaidi’s tenure in San Francisco didn’t end the way he’d envisioned, it’s unsurprising that the Dodgers are interested in bringing him back. He’d bring more than a decade of high-level experience along with his personal connections to Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes, and senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes.

Royals, Jordan Groshans Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals are adding corner infielder Jordan Groshans on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). The CAA client spent this year in the upper minors between the Yankees and A’s.

Groshans, 25, is a former first-round pick of the Blue Jays. He appeared among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in each season from 2019-21 but has yet to carve out much of an MLB role. Toronto dealt him to the Marlins before he reached the big leagues. Groshans appeared in the majors with Miami in 2022. He played in 17 games, hitting .262/.308/.312 across 65 plate appearances.

That’s the extent of his major league experience. Groshans’ bat has stalled in the minors over the past couple seasons. He hit .244/.339/.330 with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate in 2023. The Marlins lost him to the Yankees via waivers last offseason. New York successfully ran him through waivers in Spring Training. Groshans didn’t perform well at either of the top two minor league levels in the Yankees’ system. New York traded him to the A’s in June for third baseman J.D. Davis.

That swap turned out to be inconsequential for both teams. Davis hit .105 in seven games as a Yankee before being released. The A’s assigned Groshans to Double-A Midland. He hit .239/.312/.352 in 51 contests and elected minor league free agency at the end of the year. The righty-hitting infielder finished the ’24 campaign with a combined .235/.311/.318 line across 383 plate appearances between the two organizations.

Groshans’ former prospect status continues to generate some level of minor league interest. He’ll need to take a step forward offensively if he’s to earn an extended big league look. Groshans has shown decent plate discipline but minimal power. He’s a .252/.347/.331 hitter in more than 1000 Triple-A plate appearances.

Guardians Evaluating Outfield Market

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It has been a quiet start to the offseason for the Guardians. Their only notable moves have been the trade of middle reliever Eli Morgan to the Cubs and the return of backup catcher Austin Hedges on a $4MM free agent deal.

As the Winter Meetings approach, Cleveland’s front office is monitoring the market for a potential outfield acquisition. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic that the Guardians are open to adding a “complementary player” on the grass.

Steven Kwan is one of the game’s best left fielders. The other two outfield spots are more open. Lane Thomas played a good amount of center field after the Guardians acquired him from Washington in a deadline deal. He’s stretched defensively up the middle. Ideally, Thomas would slot into right field. The Guards don’t have many internal options who could take everyday playing time in center. If they’re to bump Thomas into a corner, they’ll probably need to add a center fielder.

The free agent class at the position is very weak. Harrison Bader is the only player who projects as even a low-end regular. Leody Taveras and Jake Meyers are glove-first options who could be available on the trade market. None of them are going to provide much offense, but they’d upgrade Cleveland’s outfield defense.

The Guardians are also likely to receive some trade calls regarding Thomas. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Thomas for an $8.3MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a decent sum for a low-payroll franchise, but the Guardians relinquished a solid prospect return to land Thomas a few months ago. They’d get a lesser package back after he struggled down the stretch (timely postseason home runs aside), and a trade would leave them with two question marks in the outfield.

If the Guardians stick with Thomas in center field, they’d have some combination of Will Brennan, Jhonkensy Noel and Daniel Schneemann in right field. Noel has monster power but strikes out a ton. He’s a better runner than one might expect given his 6’3″, 250-pound frame, but he might be stretched defensively as an everyday outfielder. Neither Brennan nor Schneemann has demonstrated much offensive upside. Johnathan Rodriguez, Angel Martínez and Petey Halpin are all on the 40-man roster but have little to no big league experience.

Top prospect Chase DeLauter could be a midseason upgrade. An Opening Day call would be a longer shot. DeLauter has battled injuries in his minor league career and has only appeared in 42 games above High-A, just six of which have come at the Triple-A level.

There’s a decent amount of depth in the free agent corner outfield class. Michael Conforto, Max Kepler and Alex Verdugo are all potential regulars who are likely to be limited to one or two years. They all hit left-handed, but a righty bat could better fit the search for a complementary player. Brennan and Schneemann each hit from the left side, as does DeLauter. (Noel is a righty.) Randal Grichuk or recent non-tenders Austin Hays and Bryan De La Cruz could occupy short-side platoon roles. They could pair with Brennan or Schneemann early in the season while allowing Stephen Vogt to shield DeLauter from tough left-handed pitching if he earns a big league look later in the year.

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