Author: Anthony Franco

Houston’s front office had a difficult task this offseason: acquire multiple starters despite limited payroll flexibility and one of the sport’s weakest farm system. They pulled that off, albeit at the cost of subtracting from an already thin outfield. They weren’t as successful in balancing a heavily right-handed lineup or figuring out how they’ll divide playing time in a crowded infield.

Major League Signings

• RHP Tatsuya Imai: Three years, $54MM plus $9.975MM posting fee to NPB’s Seibu Lions (deal allows Imai to opt out after ’26 or ’27 seasons)
• RHP Ryan Weiss: One year, $2.6MM (including buyout of ’27 club option)
• RHP Nate Pearson: One year, $1.35MM (arbitration eligible through ’27)

2026 commitments: $21.45MM in salary plus $9.975MM posting fee
Total future commitments: $57.95MM plus posting fee

Trades and Claims

• Acquired RHP Mike Burrows from Pirates in three-team trade sending OF Jacob Melton and minor league RHP Anderson Brito to Rays
• Traded 2B Mauricio Dubón to Braves for SS Nick Allen
• Traded OF Jesús Sánchez to Blue Jays for OF Joey Loperfido
• Acquired RHP Kai-Wei Teng from Giants for minor league C Jancel Villarroel
• Selected RHP Roddery Muñoz from Reds system in Rule 5 draft

Option Decisions

• None

Notable Minor League Signings

• CJ Alexander, Cavan Biggio, Sam Carlson, Tom Cosgrove, Peter Lambert, Anthony Maldonado, Carlos Pérez, Christian Roa, Riley Unroe, Amos Willingham, Jack Winkler, Christian Vázquez

Extensions

• None

Notable Losses

• Framber Valdez, Victor Caratini, Jacob Melton, Anderson Brito, Mauricio Dubón, Jesús Sánchez, Ramón Urías (non-tender), Chas McCormick (outright), Luis Garcia (outright, still unsigned), Kaleb Ort (lost on waivers), Pedro León (lost on waivers), John Rooney (outright), Kenedy Corona (outright)

For the second straight offseason, the Astros faced an expected free agent departure of one of their core players. They made a six-year offer to Alex Bregman in 2024, but they seemingly made little or no effort to bring back Framber Valdez. Houston made the southpaw a qualifying offer to pick up a draft choice after the fourth round once Valdez inevitably signed elsewhere.

The rotation depth behind Hunter Brown was an issue even with Valdez on the team. Another elbow surgery for Luis Garcia brought an unfortunate end to his time in the organization, as the Astros had no reason to tender him a contract for his final arbitration season. Adding at least one mid-rotation arm was the main priority for GM Dana Brown and his staff. It’d be a challenge with owner Jim Crane reportedly looking to keep the team’s luxury tax number below the $244MM base threshold.

That pointed to the trade market as the priority. Acquiring affordable starting pitching comes at a significant cost in young talent. Houston dangled center fielder Jake Meyers in what they thought might be a sell-high situation after a career year. Teams had enough skepticism about Meyers’ bat that he wasn’t going to lead the return for a mid-rotation arm, however.

Houston and the Rays had conversations about righty Shane Baz at the Winter Meetings. It didn’t result in a deal but set the stage for the rotation move the Astros would make. Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported at the time that the Rays were particularly keen on pitching prospect Anderson Brito as part of the Baz return. Tampa Bay would land Brito and the Astros would get their controllable starter two weeks later — just in a more circuitous way.

The Pirates had entertained trading a starter for offense. Pittsburgh was never going to move Paul Skenes and was highly unlikely to give up Braxton Ashcraft or Bubba Chandler. Right-hander Mike Burrows was the best fit for that kind of move. He looks like a solid third or fourth starter and has less than a year of service time. He’s the kind of player who has significant appeal on the trade market but wouldn’t be as difficult for Pittsburgh to relinquish than any of their potential top-of-the-rotation arms.

Meyers wasn’t the kind of bat the Pirates needed. Isaac Paredes might have been, but he’s more valuable to the Astros than to Pittsburgh. The righty-hitting Paredes taps into every ounce of his middling raw power by pulling the ball in the air. He’s a perfect fit for Houston’s Daikin Park and its short left field porch. For Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, the toughest in the league for right-handed home run hitters? Not so much.

That’s where the Rays reenter the picture. Pittsburgh wasn’t interested in flipping Burrows for prospects. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is constantly balancing the present and future while focusing on maximizing asset value. Houston parted with two of the better prospects in a weak farm system, sending outfielder Jacob Melton alongside Brito to Tampa Bay. The Pirates got slugging second baseman Brandon Lowe, fourth outfielder Jake Mangum, and a hard-throwing bullpen flier in Mason Montgomery from the Rays. Houston landed Burrows.

The 26-year-old righty is coming off a 3.94 ERA over 96 innings in his first real look at the big league level. Burrows posted solid strikeout and walk marks with a four-pitch mix led by a 95 mph fastball. It took him a while to establish himself, largely because of a 2023 Tommy John surgery, but it’s reasonable to view him as an above-average starter who is at least two years from his first significant earnings.

Burrows slotted behind Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier as Houston’s third starter. The back end was still an issue. It initially seemed the Astros would piece it together internally and with very modest free agent additions. They added hard-throwing Nate Pearson on a $1.35MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. They brought in 29-year-old righty Ryan Weiss — who topped out at Triple-A in affiliated ball but pitched well with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles last year — for $2.6MM.

Given the budget constraints, even the Houston front office surely didn’t anticipate landing one of the winter’s most discussed free agents. Tatsuya Imai was the top pitcher available from Japan via the posting system. The 27-year-old righty is coming off a 1.92 ERA with an NPB-leading 27.8% strikeout rate for the Seibu Lions. He averages around 95 mph with his fastball but is capable of running the heater into the upper-90s when he needs it.

Imai’s youth, velocity, whiff rates, and improving control all pointed to a potential nine-figure contract. That never materialized, as teams apparently had enough trepidation about the command and quality of his secondary stuff (particularly the changeup) to stay away from a long-term deal. Evaluators who are most bullish on Imai feel he fits into the middle of a big league rotation. The more pessimistic ones project him as a reliever — though whatever team won the bidding would only do so because they feel he’ll be a capable starter.

The depressed market allowed the Astros to jump in. As Imai’s 45-day posting window came to a close, he signed a three-year deal with Houston that included opt-outs after the first two seasons. It’s a $54MM guarantee that’ll pay him $18MM in year one (a $16MM salary plus a $2MM signing bonus). Imai will decide whether to pass on at least $36MM to retest free agency a year from now. The deal includes escalators that’d raise the price of the player options if Imai throws at least 80 innings this season.

Houston also paid a $9.975MM posting fee to the Lions. The fee is proportional to the contract’s $54MM guarantee and paid in full even if Imai opts out. There’s a decent chance the Astros are paying $27.975MM for one season. That’s a pretty sizable sum. That said, more than a third of that money is in the posting fee, which does not count toward the Astros’ luxury tax number. They kept the CBT commitment at $18MM without going beyond three years, an outcome few would have envisioned at the start of the offseason.

A front four of Brown, Javier, Imai and Burrows is solid. They’ll only need to patch together one rotation spot between Weiss, Lance McCullers Jr., AJ Blubaugh and Spencer Arrighetti. Minor league signee Peter Lambert has had a decent camp, while the Astros acquired swingman Kai-Wei Teng in a minor trade with the Giants. Pearson will build up as a starter as well, but he’s beginning the season on the injured list after experiencing elbow soreness this spring.

McCullers will probably open the season as the fifth starter based on his standing in the organization. He’s unlikely to have a long leash after turning in a 6.51 ERA over 55 2/3 innings. His fastball is back up to 93 mph this spring after landing closer to 91 last season, but various injuries have clearly taken a toll on his stuff and command.

Manager Joe Espada said this afternoon they’ll open with a five-man rotation but are likely to go to a six-man starting staff in the middle of April (relayed by Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). Imai is accustomed to pitching once a week, as all starters do in NPB. The Astros only have two off days between Opening Day and April 22. Assuming they eventually go the six-man route, Weiss or Arrighetti could pick up a few starts.

The front office did a good job getting the rotation into decent shape. It came at the cost of a few subtractions on the position player side. Trading Melton removed a left-handed hitter from the outfield. They also made a few downgrades to the bottom of the order and the bench in cost-saving moves.

Houston non-tendered second/third baseman Ramón Urías, who’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at $4.4MM for his final arbitration season. They traded utility player Mauricio Dubón to the Braves for glove-only shortstop Nick Allen. That wound up saving $4.7MM in the difference between their respective arbitration salaries.

Houston spent all offseason trying to move right fielder Jesús Sánchez, who disappointed after a deadline acquisition from the Marlins. They lined up a deal in Spring Training that sent Sánchez to the Blue Jays for Joey Loperfido, a move that saved another $6MM.

They’re plenty familiar with Loperfido, whom they drafted and developed before trading to Toronto in the Yusei Kikuchi deal at the 2024 deadline. He hit .333/.379/.500 in 104 MLB plate appearances last season, but a 27:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio puts a damper on those numbers. Loperfido was a league average hitter over a bigger sample in Triple-A (.264/.341/.401 in 373 PAs). He’s a better fit as a left-handed bench bat than an everyday player.

The Astros easily led the majors in plate appearances by right-handed hitters. They had a total of seven players who took at least 40 at-bats from the left side. Five of them are off the 40-man roster, four out of the organization entirely. Victor Caratini hit free agency and signed a two-year deal with Minnesota. Sánchez and Melton were traded. Taylor Trammell and Cooper Hummel were waived. The only ones returning are Yordan Alvarez and rookie outfielder Zach Cole.

Houston’s desire for more lineup balance was no secret, yet this was a lot less successful than the rotation pursuits. The Astros didn’t come away with a left-handed hitter either at second base or in the outfield (except Loperfido, who was acquired for the lefty-hitting Sánchez). Brendan Donovan, who would have been an ideal roster fit, landed elsewhere in the division with the Mariners. Houston’s lack of farm depth and expendable starting pitching limited their options in this regard.

That led to plenty of late-offseason chatter about flipping an infielder. They would’ve needed to eat money to deal first baseman Christian Walker, who is owed $40MM over the next two seasons and coming off a replacement level showing. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Carlos Correa obviously weren’t getting moved.

That left Paredes as the only infielder who was both a realistic trade candidate and had the ability to net a significant return. Dana Brown said in November that the Astros had “no interest” in moving the corner infielder, who was one of their best hitters on a rate basis. The front office softened that stance by Spring Training but nothing came together.

Houston enters the year with a lopsided position player group. They want Altuve playing mostly second base again after he struggled with last year’s left field experiment. Walker and Correa are the primary corner infield tandem. Peña will be the everyday shortstop with Alvarez working mostly as a designated hitter. That leaves Paredes as a dramatically overqualified bench bat on paper.

The situation should sort itself out before long. Correa and Alvarez have notable injury histories. Paredes himself is coming off a significant hamstring strain that cost him most of the second half. Altuve and Walker are in their mid-30s. There’s value in giving all those players rest days.

Peña will play essentially every day once he’s healthy. He broke his right ring finger during the World Baseball Classic and is questionable for Opening Day. The Astros could slide Correa to shortstop and pencil Paredes in at third base if Peña requires an injured list stint. That’d be a rough defensive infield, so they could also opt to live with Allen’s bat in the nine spot to play him at shortstop and keep Correa at the hot corner.

Trade rumors on Meyers quieted after the Astros dealt Melton. Meyers is now a key piece as the primary center fielder. Second-year outfielder Cam Smith should retake the right field job from Sánchez. Smith impressed defensively in his first year as an outfielder, but his bat wilted at the end of his rookie season.

Left field is wide open. Loperfido will get some work there, while Altuve and Alvarez figure to make occasional starts. Brice Matthews is a middle infielder by trade but has worked in the outfield this spring given the much clearer path to playing time on the grass. The Astros would love for Cole to stick on the roster as a left-handed power bat. He struck out at a 35% rate in the minors last season and has fanned 17 times in 44 plate appearances this spring. The swing-and-miss might push him off the active roster.

The Astros didn’t do much to replace Caratini, a high-end backup catcher. Yainer Diaz is the clear #1 option behind the plate. César Salazar is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. Houston brought back 2022 World Series champion Christian Vázquez on a minor league deal to compete with Salazar for a bench spot.

Houston was similarly quiet in addressing the bullpen. Their only MLB bullpen add was the selection of Roddery Muñoz in the Rule 5 draft. Some of their rotation depth pickups (e.g. Weiss, Pearson, Teng) could pitch in relief. That could have an indirect impact on the bullpen by giving the Astros the flexibility to use Blubaugh or Arrighetti in relief. Minor league signee Christian Roa, a Houston native and Texas A&M product, has had a great camp and is probably pitching his way onto the roster.

The Astros have already announced they’ll open the season without Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa. Hader has been bothered by a biceps issue after last year’s season-ending capsule injury in his shoulder. Sousa strained his oblique. They’re still well positioned from the left side with Bryan King and Steven Okert in the late innings. Plugging Bryan Abreu in as closer leaves their right-handed setup group rather thin.

It’s a top-heavy roster, one with a few obvious areas (left field, bullpen, left-handed bat) they’ll hope to address at the deadline. They’re estimated around $10MM below the luxury tax line, so they should have some flexibility for in-season maneuvering. There’s also the possibility that Crane reverses course and signs off on going past the threshold, as he did when Correa was available last summer.

The Astros are perennially in win-now mode. This season could be an inflection point for the organization after their first playoff miss in eight years. Espada and Dana Brown are entering the final years of their respective contracts.

Crane said in January they weren’t likely to discuss extensions until seeing how the 2026 season plays out. “I think we’ll go through this year like we always do, evaluate it and then make the decision at the end of the year,” the owner said. “We won’t probably do any extensions now. But I’m not saying that’s impossible. We haven’t talked about it yet. We’ve been focused on getting what we need to compete this next year.”

They got most of the way there, though they’re behind the Mariners on paper. Preseason projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have the Astros closer to the Rangers (and potentially the A’s) as the second or third-best team in the AL West than to Seattle at the top of the division. Can they overcome the odds to reclaim first place, or will they at least find themselves back in a crowded American League Wild Card picture?