Vinny Nittoli

The Orioles have acquired right-hander Zach Eflin and cash considerations from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. Going to the Rays are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment by the O’s to get Eflin onto their roster.

Eflin, 30, has been a solid big league starter for many years, including his time with the Phillies and with the Rays as well. Since the start of 2018, he has allowed 4.01 earned runs per nine frames in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground ball rate in that time were both close to league averages and he also limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Here in 2024, he has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts. His strikeout rate is down to 18.9% but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 2.8%.

About a month ago, it was reported that the Rays could be looking to make some starting pitchers available, even if they weren’t sellers in the classically understood definition. They had a rotation consisting of Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Tyler Alexander on hand as a depth option. On top of that group, they had Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen each getting back to health after significant elbow surgeries.

As the overall group became healthier, the Rays were seemingly open to subtracting, as doing so could allow them to address other parts of their roster, save some money, bolster their farm system or some combination of those goals, and still keep a fairly healthy rotation for the stretch run. The most logical candidates for such a trade were Civale, Littell and Eflin as the three of them were slated for free agency after 2025. Civale was flipped to the Brewers a few weeks ago and replaced in the rotation by Baz, with Eflin now moving on as well.

The Baltimore rotation has been in the opposite position, as it’s been getting less healthy as the season has gone along. Each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required UCL surgery earlier this year, putting them out of action for the remainder of the campaign.

They still had a strong front two in the rotation with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but there’s been far less certainty behind them. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott were each given brief auditions but weren’t impressive. Dean Kremer has a serviceable 4.43 ERA but might be lucky to have that, considering his .227 batting average on balls in play. Albert Suárez has a 3.48 ERA but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is back in the majors for the first time since 2017. Cole Irvin has been moved between the rotation and bullpen due to inconsistent results. Bolstering that group is plenty sensible and it now looks much stronger with Eflin in it. Burnes is set to reach free agency after this season, so acquiring Eflin is also a notable move for Baltimore’s 2025 rotation.

In addition to the situation in Tampa’s rotation, an Eflin deal has seemed likely due to his contract. He signed a three-year pact with the Rays going into 2023, with the $40MM guarantee being backloaded. He was paid $11MM last year and is making that same amount here in 2024, with an $18MM salary for 2025. The Rays often trade their players before they reach free agency and slinking away from that large commitment in the final season of the deal always seemed possible.

The Rays are covering Eflin’s $1MM trade bonus but the O’s are otherwise absorbing the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, both on X. That’s perhaps a notable development as the Orioles haven’t spent much money since their last competitive window closed. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had nine-figure Opening Day payrolls from 2014 to 2018 but haven’t been back to that level since then.

Some of the light spending has been due to the club rebuilding in recent years but their return to contention hasn’t led to a loosening of the pursestrings. The O’s haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in early 2018 and the largest guarantee of any kind given out since then is the $13MM given to Craig Kimbrel on his one-year deal.

David Rubenstein purchased the franchise from the Angelos family earlier this year and it has been hoped that the ownership change would also lead to a change in spending habits. Perhaps the fact that the O’s are taking on an $18MM salary for next year is a sign that Baltimore will be operating differently from now on.

Turning to Tampa’s end of the deal, they are presumably saving at least a little bit of money while also adding three fresh prospects to their system. Baseball America just updated their list of the top 30 Orioles’ farmhands, with Horvath in the #13 slot and Baumeister at #18, through Etzel doesn’t crack the list.

Horwath, 23, was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .232/.328/.417 in High-A this year for a 110 wRC+. He’s also stolen 26 bases while playing second base, third base and the outfield.

Baumeister, 22, was taken with a competitive balance pick last year, 63rd overall. He has made 18 starts at the High-A level this year with a 3.06 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate, though a 14% walk rate. Etzel was a tenth-round pick last year and has slashed .289/.363/.445 for a 126 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A this year.

The O’s are 61-41 and tied for the best record in the American League but were heading into the stretch run with a flimsy rotation. They’ve strengthened it with a solid veteran, both for this year and next. They have subtracted from their farm system but it’s considered one of the best in the league and they held onto their top guys. Though the rotation is better than it was before this trade, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add another arm. It’s also been reported that they could trade someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins, though perhaps today’s trade of Austin Hays to the Phillies makes that less likely.

The Rays have added to their pool of young talent while shedding some payroll commitments, but still go into the final months of this season with a fairly solid rotation. Perhaps they are still hoping to compete but it also seems a more significant sell-off is in the cards. They traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners yesterday and it’s possible that guys like Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks and others could be available in the coming days.

Prior to this trade, Eflin was also connected to clubs like the Astros, Atlanta and the Cardinals. Those clubs will now have to look elsewhere for rotation upgrades in the coming days. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and others have been in rumors with varying degrees of availability.

Nittoli was just added to Baltimore’s roster less than two weeks ago and they will now have to either trade him or put him on waivers in the coming days. He has a 1.50 ERA in 12 big league innings this year between the O’s and the A’s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that the O’s would be getting Eflin. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the prospects going back to the Rays on X. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relayed Nittoli’s DFA on X.