Kevin Kiermaier Clears Waivers
Kevin Kiermaier went unclaimed on waivers, the center fielder tells Hazel Mae and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (X link). GM Ross Atkins informed Kiermaier of the news today.
The Jays placed the defensive stalwart on waivers earlier in the week. The development was reported yesterday, but it’s likely Toronto made the move on Wednesday. (The waiver resolution process takes 48 hours.) The Jays were hoping that another team would place a claim and assume the approximate $4.5MM remaining on his $10.5MM salary. All 29 other teams passed on that opportunity.
As a result, the waiver saga will likely amount to nothing. The Jays could technically try to assign Kiermaier to the minor leagues now that he went unclaimed, but there’s no real reason to do so. Kiermaier has way more than the five years of service time necessary to decline a minor league assignment while retaining his entire salary. If the Jays tried to send him to Triple-A, the four-time Gold Glove winner would surely elect free agency instead. Toronto would still owe him his salary, so all that’d achieve is opening a roster spot.
Instead, the Blue Jays are likely to simply keep Kiermaier in the majors. A team does not need to send a player down after passing that player through waivers. (As an example, the Angels retained Tyler Anderson and Randal Grichuk last season after unsuccessfully trying to offload their salaries.) Kiermaier is likely to continue serving as Toronto’s primary center fielder.
The 34-year-old will try to right the ship amidst the worst offensive season of his career. Kiermaier is hitting .191/.238/.295 with a huge 32.2% strikeout rate through 189 plate appearances. Among hitters with 150+ trips, he has the sixth-lowest OBP and is 19th from the bottom in slugging. Even with his customarily excellent glovework, Kiermaier’s overall production is hovering around replacement level.
Between the lack of offense and the fairly significant salary, no team was willing to plug Kiermaier into center field. The Jays could still try to trade him between now and the July 30 deadline, though they’d clearly need to pay down a portion of his salary to facilitate a deal. For the time being, he’ll try to help Toronto salvage their season. The Jays head into tonight’s series opener in Arizona with a 43-50 record that has them 8.5 games back of the Red Sox for the American League’s last Wild Card spot.
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Nationals Place Nick Senzel On Release Waivers
The Nationals announced this morning that they’ve placed Nick Senzel on unconditional release waivers. Any team that claims him would assume the remainder of his $2MM salary. It’s likelier he’ll go unclaimed and become a free agent.
Washington had five days to find a trade partner after designating the third baseman for assignment last Saturday. That didn’t come to fruition, making a release the likely outcome. Senzel entered the season with four years and 150 days of service time. He surpassed the five-year mark in April, thereby earning the right to decline any assignments to the minor leagues without forfeiting salary. Since Senzel would likely have elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment to Triple-A, the Nats simply released him.
The Nationals took a flier on the former #2 overall pick last offseason. Senzel never developed into the offensive force that the Reds envisioned when they drafted him so highly. That’s in part because of injury, as the University of Tennessee product missed time because of knee and toe issues. Even when healthy, Senzel turned in middling offensive numbers. He combined for a .239/.302/.368 line in nearly 1400 plate appearances with Cincinnati.
The Reds opted not to tender him an arbitration contract. The Nationals, still at the tail end of their rebuild, guaranteed him $2MM in hopes that a change of scenery could unlock some of the upside he showed in college and in the minors. The Nats also committed to moving Senzel back to his natural third base position after the Reds had bounced him around the diamond in recent years.
Senzel continued to struggle in his new home. He opened the season on the injured list after breaking his thumb in Spring Training. Senzel returned in mid-April and blasted five home runs over his first couple weeks of the season. His production tailed off almost immediately thereafter. Since the start of May, he’s hitting .207/.309/.299 in 188 plate appearances. That wasn’t going to translate to any kind of trade interest.
Washington is giving rookie Trey Lipscomb an audition at third base after moving on from Senzel. The 24-year-old has struggled to a .228/.293/.257 slash line over his first 43 MLB contests. The Nats have dropped 10 games under .500 and are quickly falling from the Wild Card race, though, so they’ve taken the past couple weeks to get looks at younger players. Washington also released Eddie Rosario in conjunction with the promotion of top outfield prospect James Wood.
Once he clears release waivers, Senzel might need to take a minor league contract. If he secures a spot on the MLB roster with another team, that club would only owe him the prorated portion of the $740K minimum for time spent in the majors. The Nationals remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.
Rockies Outright Dakota Hudson
Rockies starter Dakota Hudson was outrighted to Triple-A Albuquerque after clearing waivers, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com (X link). Hudson has the right to elect free agency while retaining his $1.5MM base salary, but Harding suggests the right-hander is likely to report to Albuquerque.
Hudson signed a one-year free agent deal with Colorado after being non-tendered by the Cardinals. Colorado gave him 17 turns through the rotation, but Hudson didn’t manage particularly strong results. He posted a 5.84 earned run average with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. The sinkerballer induced ground-balls at a solid 52.4% clip, but the lack of missed bats didn’t play well at Coors Field.
A former supplemental first-round pick, Hudson had some productive years early in his career with St. Louis. His velocity has trended down over the past few seasons. His sinker is averaging a career-low 90.3 MPH this year. That squeezed Hudson off the roster and likely back to the minors. The Rox could field trade offers on Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber, potentially opening a rotation spot or two after the deadline.
Yankees Have Discussed Jazz Chisholm
The Yankees have had some discussions regarding Jazz Chisholm Jr., writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It’s not clear how serious New York’s interest is or whether they’ve been in contact with Miami’s front office.
Chisholm will be the subject of ample trade chatter over the next three weeks. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote earlier in the week that there’s increased belief around the industry that he’ll be dealt. The Marlins probably won’t take many players off the table as they continue the rebuild they truly commenced with the Luis Arraez trade at the start of May. Thanks to a brutal series of injuries that has decimated their rotation, Chisholm is probably Miami’s most valuable deadline trade chip.
[Related: Top 50 Trade Candidates]
The lefty-hitting Chisholm connected on his 12th homer of the season in today’s loss to the Astros. He’s carrying a slightly above-average .255/.324/.419 slash line through 377 plate appearances. Chisholm has stolen 18 bases but been thrown out on eight occasions. He’s walking at an average 8.5% clip while striking out just over a quarter of the time.
It might not be dominant production, but Chisholm at least looks like a solid everyday player. Some teams could still view him as an upside play at age 26. Chisholm was a staple on top prospect lists thanks to his evident combination of athleticism and raw power potential. He’s shown glimpses of that ceiling at the big league level — most notably during an All-Star 2022 season in which he hit .254/.324/.535 over his first 60 games. Chisholm’s seeming breakout year was cut short by a stress fracture in his back. He has been a good but not elite player over the past season and a half, hitting .253/.314/.436 with 30 longballs and 40 steals over 755 plate appearances.
That more recent stretch has coincided with a position change. Chisholm was a middle infield prospect who broke into the majors as a primary second baseman. The Marlins moved him to center field when they acquired Arraez going into ’23. Defensive metrics are mixed on his outfield work. Defensive Runs Saved has rated Chisholm 14 runs below average in more than 1500 center field innings. Statcast has him as a neutral defender.
While the Yankees don’t necessarily need outfield help, they should be looking for ways to deepen the lineup. New York has Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo in the corner positions. Aaron Judge has played mostly designated hitter since Giancarlo Stanton landed on the injured list, drawing Trent Grisham into the lineup in center field. Playing Grisham regularly isn’t ideal, but Stanton could be back around the deadline (thereby pushing Judge back to center).
Miami hasn’t played Chisholm for a single inning on the infield dirt since 2022. Manager Skip Schumaker flatly shot down the idea of getting him infield reps after the Fish designated Tim Anderson for assignment at the start of July (X link via Isaac Azout of Fish on First). Other teams may be more willing to rotate Chisholm into the middle infield, at least on occasion. Heyman suggests that if the Yankees were to make a serious run at Chisholm, it’d likely be with an eye to the infield. Neither Gleyber Torres nor DJ LeMahieu have gotten things going offensively, leaving the Yankees without much production from second or third base.
Chisholm is under team control for two and a half seasons, so Miami should net a significant return if they do move him. He’s making just $2.625MM this year, a little less than half of which has yet to be paid.
Rockies Listening To Trade Offers On Elias Diaz
The Rockies will consider trade offers on catcher Elias Díaz over the next few weeks, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The veteran should slot in behind Danny Jansen as a rental target for contenders seeking catching help.
Impending free agents on last-place teams are frequently trade candidates. Díaz fits the bill, but the Rockies haven’t always been eager to trade rentals even after falling out of contention. Colorado held Trevor Story and Jon Gray at the deadline three years ago. They extended Daniel Bard rather than trading him at the 2022 deadline. The Rox were more aggressive in moving rentals last year, although they still held onto lefty reliever Brent Suter only to watch him walk in free agency.
It’s less likely they’ll do so with Díaz. Heyman reports that the team declined to engage in extension discussions with the 33-year-old catcher. If Colorado isn’t interested in keeping him beyond this season, they’re better off taking the best offer on the table by July 30. Díaz isn’t a qualifying offer candidate, so they wouldn’t get any compensation if they let him depart via free agency.
While the return wouldn’t be huge, Díaz has probably played well enough to net Colorado a mid-level prospect or two. He has career marks in batting average (.296) and on-base percentage (.340). Díaz’s overall .296/.340/.417 batting line is around league average after accounting for Coors Field, as measured by wRC+. That’s more than adequate for a catcher.
An acquiring team probably wouldn’t expect Díaz to match that level of production down the stretch. He’s hitting .347 on balls in play, a mark he’ll have a tough time maintaining. Díaz doesn’t hit the ball especially hard and isn’t going to beat out many infield hits. There’s room for regression while remaining a passable hitter at the position. Catchers around the league are hitting .236/.300/.381 this season.
Perhaps more importantly, Díaz has dramatically improved his defensive grades. For most of his career, the Venezuela native has rated as a subpar pitch framer. That’s not the case in 2024, as Statcast has lauded his receiving skills in more than 400 innings. Díaz has always had a strong arm and been very effective at controlling the running game. He’s doing so again, cutting down 14 of 45 stolen base attempts (31.1%). That’s well better than the 22.1% league average.
Díaz is in the final season of a three-year extension that he signed during the 2021-22 offseason. He’s playing on a $6MM salary. There’s a little less than $2.6MM remaining on that tab. That’ll be down to around $2MM by the deadline. Díaz’s contract shouldn’t be too much of an impediment to a trade. Some teams are reluctant to trade for catchers midseason because of the challenges of quickly adjusting to a new pitching staff, but Díaz could work as part of a timeshare with an in-house catcher.
The Cubs and Rays are fringe contenders but could look for catching help if they stick in the playoff mix. Díaz’s former team in Pittsburgh hasn’t gotten much from the position, while the Mariners may look for a better backup behind Cal Raleigh to keep Mitch Garver working primarily at designated hitter.
Díaz and Jacob Stallings are the only true catchers on Colorado’s 40-man roster (though Hunter Goodman can play there in a pinch). They’re each impending free agents, and Stallings has also played well enough to be viable trade candidate.
A trade of one or both veterans could open some late-season reps for Drew Romo. The 35th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Romo is hitting .300/.331/.494 in 66 games with Albuquerque. Colorado will need to select his contract by November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They could take the final few weeks of the regular season to give the 22-year-old his first look against MLB arms.
Austin Cox Opts Out Of Royals Deal
Left-hander Austin Cox opted out of a minor league contract with the Royals, as first reported by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (X link). He returns to free agency after K.C. decided not to select him onto the 40-man roster.
Cox was a fifth-round pick by the Royals out of Mercer in 2018. He had spent all but one day of his professional career in the organization. The 27-year-old southpaw reached the majors last season and pitched in 24 games. He turned in a 4.54 ERA across 35 2/3 innings, striking out 22.1% of opponents against an elevated 11.4% walk percentage. His debut season came to an unfortunate end in September. Cox tore the ACL in his left knee as he tried to cover first base on a ground-ball. He underwent surgery not long thereafter.
That perhaps contributed to the Royals’ decision to take Cox off the 40-man roster. K.C. non-tendered him on November 17. That briefly sent him to free agency, though he returned to the organization on a minor league deal the following day. Cox wasn’t able to participate in Spring Training as he finished his injury rehab, but he made it back to the mound with Triple-A Omaha a couple weeks into the season.
Cox made 19 appearances with the Storm Chasers, working mostly in long relief. He worked to a 3.90 ERA with a decent 23.3% strikeout rate. Yet he also walked almost 14% of opponents, an issue he’s battled throughout his career. Cox is likely looking at another minor league deal on a team seeking multi-inning relief depth.
Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals
After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.
With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.
Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.
A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.
Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.
Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.
This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.
That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.
Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.
Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.
Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.
Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.
Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.
If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.
Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.
Braves Outright J.P. Martinez
The Braves announced that outfielder J.P. Martínez went unclaimed on outright waivers. Atlanta had designated him for assignment on Monday when they promoted Eddie Rosario. Atlanta also optioned AJ Smith-Shawver, placed Ramón Laureano on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain, recalled Dylan Lee and reinstated Brian Anderson from the IL.
Martínez has appeared in seven games this year, picking up a lone start in right field. He has two hits in 10 at-bats. Acquired from the Rangers in an offseason DFA trade, Martínez has spent the majority of the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett. Over 60 games with the Stripers, he’s hitting .244/.335/.360 with three home runs. Martínez has drawn a fair number of walks (10.9%) but gone down on strikes at an alarming 27.6% rate.
While he hasn’t had a great ’24 season, Martínez was a productive Triple-A player a year ago. He raked at a .298/.418/.543 clip with 14 homers and 38 stolen bases over 77 games with the Rangers’ top affiliate. That earned the Cuban-born outfielder 17 MLB appearances with Texas.
Martínez has never previously been outrighted and isn’t close to three years of major league service. As a result, he doesn’t have the ability to test free agency. He’ll stick in Gwinnett as non-roster outfield depth. Atlanta is likely to bring in outfield help before the July 30 deadline. With Laureano joining Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II on the injured list, their current outfield group consists of Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, Rosario, Anderson and Eli White.
MLB Finalizes 2024 Home Run Derby Participants
Major League Baseball has finalized the eight-person field for next Monday’s Home Run Derby. The full list of participants:
- Mets 1B Pete Alonso
- Phillies 3B Alec Bohm
- Rangers OF Adolis García
- Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson
- Dodgers OF Teoscar Hernández
- Braves DH Marcell Ozuna
- Guardians 3B José Ramírez
- Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.
Alonso and García return from last year’s event. The New York first baseman is in the event for the fifth consecutive time. Alonso won back-to-back times in 2019-21 (there was no Derby in 2020 because of the pandemic) but has successively been knocked out by Julio Rodríguez in the last two events. García was dropped by Randy Arozarena in the first round last year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the event but decided not to try to defend his title.
This year’s festivities are taking place at Arlington’s Globe Life Field. Under the collective bargaining agreement, the Derby winner will receive $1MM. The runner-up takes home $500K, while every other participant receives $150K. The player who hits the longest home run wins $100K.
This year’s event involves a few rule changes, as Buster Olney of ESPN recently wrote. The first round no longer features head-to-head matchups. The top four home run hitters will move to the second round, with the longest homer serving as a tiebreaker. MLB is also limiting hitters to 40 swings per round and is changing the bonus round from a clock to a limit of three outs (four if a player hit a 425-foot homer in the bonus round).