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Orioles Could Pursue Closing Help At Deadline

By Anthony Franco | May 13, 2024 at 6:39pm CDT

The Orioles lead the American League with a 26-13 record, putting them half a game above the Yankees at the top of the AL East. Baltimore again looks like one of the best teams in the league and is trending towards buying at the deadline.

One area that could be a priority this summer: fortifying the back of the bullpen. Baltimore lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery last fall. They signed Craig Kimbrel — their only major league free agent pickup of the winter — to a $13MM deal to solidify the ninth inning. That hasn’t worked out quite the way the front office envisioned. Kimbrel has run into recent struggles that put his status as closer into question.

Baltimore used Kimbrel in the seventh inning in last Friday’s win over the Diamondbacks. Manager Brandon Hyde was noncommittal after that game about whether that signified a permanent role change for the nine-time All-Star. The O’s haven’t had a save situation since then, though they used Yennier Cano in the top of the ninth in a tied game (a situation in which a team typically calls on its closer) on Saturday. Kimbrel threw a scoreless 11th inning in that contest and got the win when the Orioles walked off in the bottom half.

There are more than two months for Kimbrel to pitch his way back into the ninth inning before the deadline. Still, the situation is flexible enough that the Orioles could consider alternatives if the veteran’s performance remains uneven. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend the O’s will monitor the status of established closers like Jordan Romano, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Pressly.

All three players are theoretical deadline trade possibilities, although they’re each on teams that entered the season expecting to contend. The Blue Jays are four games under .500 and sit last in the AL East. The Cardinals are at the bottom of the NL Central with a 16-24 record. At 15-25, the Astros have an even worse mark, though they’re at least ahead of the Angels in their division.

None of those clubs are going to start moving veteran players anytime soon. Houston GM Dana Brown recently shot down the possibility of selling in any capacity, although it seems likely the team would reconsider that approach if they remain well below .500 in July. All three are veteran-laden teams that surely won’t pivot to selling unless it’s clear they don’t have a path back to competing this year, though.

Romano, 31, has operated as Toronto’s closer for the last three seasons. He’s a two-time All-Star who has saved 36 games in consecutive years. Romano hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs per nine in any of the past three seasons. He opened this year on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He was reinstated in mid-April and has worked at his typical velocity (96.5 MPH fastball, 86.4 MPH slider). Romano is playing on a $7.75MM salary and is under arbitration control for one more season.

Helsley is also arbitration controlled through 2025. He’s making $3.8MM this year for the Cardinals. The 29-year-old has been one of the game’s most effective relievers on a rate basis going back to 2022. Helsley owns a 1.65 ERA with a massive 36.5% strikeout rate in 120 1/3 innings over the past two-plus seasons. The power righty pairs a fastball that averages more than 99 MPH with an upper-80s slider. After missing a good chunk of the 2023 campaign to a forearm strain, Helsley has been healthy this season. He has allowed just three earned runs with 21 strikeouts and two walks over 19 innings.

Things have been more rocky for Pressly, who has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) in his first 14 1/3 frames. The 35-year-old righty has managed 22 strikeouts with six free passes, though, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground more than half the time an opponent makes contact. Those secondary marks and Pressly’s career track record should lead to plenty of interest if the Astros get to a point where they’d seriously consider moving him at the deadline. Pressly has worked in a setup capacity to Josh Hader this year; he saved more than 30 games in each of the last two seasons.

From a financial perspective, Pressly would be a costlier add than either Romano or Helsley. He’s playing on a $14MM salary and has a matching option for 2025 that would vest if he appears in 50 games this season. He’s at 16 appearances already and looks well on track to triggering that option barring a notable injury.

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Baltimore Orioles Craig Kimbrel Jordan Romano Ryan Helsley Ryan Pressly

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Reds Place TJ Friedl On Injured List With Thumb Fracture

By Anthony Franco | May 13, 2024 at 5:39pm CDT

Reds center fielder TJ Friedl sustained a broken left thumb and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. Cincinnati recalled outfielder Jacob Hurtubise from Triple-A Louisville to take the open roster spot.

It’s a tough blow for Friedl, who only returned from the IL last week. The 28-year-old missed the season’s first six weeks after breaking his wrist during Spring Training. He played six games and tallied 24 plate appearances before being hit by a Kyle Harrison pitch leading off yesterday’s game against the Giants. Friedl came out of the game, with Will Benson sliding from right to center field in his place. Jake Fraley came off the bench to man right field.

Friedl was one of the Reds best players in 2023. He frequently occupied one of the top two spots in the batting order and turned in a .279/.352/.467 line across 556 plate appearances. Friedl connected on 18 home runs and stole 27 bases while playing solid center field defense. It was borderline All-Star production overall, making him a key contributor to a Cincinnati team that came up just shy of the postseason.

They’ll now be without Friedl for another undetermined period of time. Benson and Stuart Fairchild took the majority of the center field reps early in the season. Neither player has provided much offensively. That has contributed to a lack of production throughout the lineup. Cincinnati ranks 28th in on-base percentage and 26th in slugging despite playing in one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly home parks.

Hurtubise, 26, joins the outfield mix for the first time. A West Point graduate, he signed with the Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020. Despite lacking much prospect fanfare, he played his way onto the 40-man roster last winter thanks to huge on-base numbers in the minors. While Hurtubise has almost no power, he’s a .295 hitter with a .434 OBP in parts of four minor league seasons. He has stolen 102 bases and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his professional career.

The left-handed hitter adds a contact and speed element to David Bell’s bench. Hurtubise has experience at all three outfield positions, though Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote last month that he’s best served in left field.

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Cincinnati Reds Jacob Hurtubise TJ Friedl

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Brooks Raley Facing Potential Long-Term Absence Due To Elbow Injury

By Anthony Franco | May 11, 2024 at 11:55am CDT

TODAY: Raley spoke with Newsday’s Tim Healey and other reporters today, and revealed that while his situation is “a little more complex” and that he doesn’t “know all the details,” he is dealing with bone spurs and some level of UCL damage in his left elbow.  Raley will meet with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday to explore surgical and non-surgical options.

MAY 2: Mets reliever Brooks Raley is facing a possible long-term absence after testing revealed “at least fraying” in an elbow ligament, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman writes that Raley and the team are currently weighing whether he’ll need to undergo surgery.

Raley landed on the 15-day injured list with what the team called elbow inflammation two weeks ago. Manager Carlos Mendoza was initially optimistic that the left-hander would return around the time he was first eligible. Subsequent imaging has evidently revealed the issue to be more serious than the team first believed. Mendoza told reporters this afternoon that Raley’s recovery timeline was being pushed back, albeit without providing much in the way of specifics (via the MLB.com injury tracker).

Acquired from the Rays over the 2022-23 offseason, Raley has been a quality bullpen piece in Queens. He turned in a 2.80 ERA over a career-high 54 2/3 innings last season. He punched out more than a quarter of opposing hitters and found success against batters of either handedness. The Mets fielded some trade interest on Raley last summer but elected to hold him and trigger a $6.5MM option for this season.

The first three weeks could hardly have gone much better. Raley rattled off seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and only five baserunners allowed (two hits and three walks). He was credited with four holds in eight appearances and was among the club’s highest-leverage arms. Depending on the results of upcoming testing, he could be out for an extended stretch — perhaps the entire season.

That would leave the Mets rather short on experienced left-handed bullpen depth. Free agent pickup Jake Diekman is their top healthy option. The veteran has huge swing-and-miss ability, though his results have been somewhat inconsistent throughout his career thanks to well below-average control. Josh Walker and Tyler Jay have seen limited action, while recent call-up Danny Young made his team debut in this afternoon’s win. Walker was recently optioned to Triple-A Syracuse, while Jay was outrighted off the 40-man roster and is back in the minors as well.

Depth starter Joey Lucchesi has fared better against left-handed hitters and could theoretically work out of the bullpen. The same is true of David Peterson once he returns from hip surgery that will shelve him at least into late May. (Peterson’s overall platoon splits are neutral, but his strikeout and walk rates have been much better against southpaws.) Still, this looks like an area the Mets could look to upgrade from outside the organization if Raley misses a significant amount of time.

A long-term absence would be particularly unfortunate for Raley as well. He turns 36 next month and will be a free agent next winter. With a 2.58 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate since the start of 2022, he has a good chance at a solid two-year deal if he’s fully healthy. It’s too soon to tell how his market might be affected by this injury, but any kind of surgery (particularly if he’s out into 2025) would be a tough blow.

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New York Mets Brooks Raley

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Cubs, Kyle McGowin Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | May 10, 2024 at 11:26pm CDT

The Cubs have purchased the contract of right-hander Kyle McGowin from the Atlantic League’s Charleston Dirty Birds, the independent team announced (on X). According to the transaction log at MLB.com, he’s headed to Double-A Tennessee.

McGowin suited up at the MLB level for the Nationals each season between 2018-21. He made a career-high 27 appearances in 2021, pitching to a 4.20 ERA through 30 innings. Washington outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the end of that season. McGowin hasn’t pitched in the majors since then. He spent part of last season in Triple-A with the Astros, struggling to a 7.36 ERA over 62 1/3 frames in the Pacific Coast League.

The 32-year-old made a pair of impressive starts in the Atlantic League. He fanned 11 against one walk over 10 innings of four-run ball. McGowin pitched almost exclusively in relief during his MLB time with the Nats, but he has spent most of his minor league career as a starter. He owns a 5.08 ERA in parts of six Triple-A campaigns and has a managed a 4.34 mark through six years at the Double-A level.

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Orioles Notes: Kimbrel, Bullpen, Rotation

By Anthony Franco | May 10, 2024 at 9:54pm CDT

The Orioles locked down a 4-2 win over the Diamondbacks tonight, pulling to an AL-best 25-12 record. The victory, which included some interesting decisions from Brandon Hyde, featured 4 1/3 scoreless innings from the bullpen behind Cole Irvin.

Baltimore’s skipper called upon Craig Kimbrel to pitch the seventh inning with the team holding a one-run lead. Kimbrel retired Blaze Alexander, Kevin Newman and Ketel Marte in order. Jacob Webb, Cionel Pérez and Yennier Cano followed in relief to secure the victory.

It’s the first time this season that Kimbrel has entered a game before the ninth inning. The nine-time All-Star has hit a rough patch of late, failing to finish off save opportunities against the Reds and Nationals in his previous two appearances. After the game, Hyde demurred when asked whether Kimbrel was being pulled from the closer job. The manager said Kimbrel’s role is “day to day” and that he hoped to get the scuffling right-hander a different look this evening (X link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun).

Even if the O’s decide to move away from Kimbrel as a full-time closer, he’s clearly still among their most important relievers. Protecting a one-run lead in the seventh is a high-leverage spot — although it did come against the 8-9-1 hitters in the Arizona batting order. Webb and Cano have arguably been Baltimore’s two best relievers this year, so they’re probably better suited than Kimbrel to take on the middle of an opponent’s lineup.

The O’s signed Kimbrel to a $13MM free agent deal with the hope that he’d solidify the ninth after Félix Bautista’s Tommy John procedure. Kimbrel has technically gone 8-11 in save opportunities, but his two previous appearances — in which he didn’t complete the ninth inning but was pulled before the O’s relinquished the lead — aren’t considered blown saves. Kimbrel had only successfully locked down the game in one of his last five tries.

Including tonight’s performance, he owns a 4.40 ERA through 14 1/3 innings. Kimbrel has punched out 22 of 62 batters faced (an excellent 35.5% rate) but he has also walked nearly 15% of his opponents. He’d walked between 10 and 11% of hitters in each of the previous two seasons with the Dodgers and Phillies. While Kimbrel had a couple rough outings in the postseason with Philadelphia, he went 23-28 on save opportunities with a 3.26 ERA during the regular season last year.

Hyde could take a broadly flexible approach to the entire pitching staff. Beyond potentially shuffling the high-leverage bullpen roles, he told reporters before tonight’s game that the team would consider moving to a six-man rotation when the schedule necessitates (relayed on X by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). Baltimore is off next Thursday before playing 14 straight through May 30. The following month is particularly grueling, as the O’s only have one day off in June (on 6/17).

Baltimore is currently operating with a five-man staff comprising Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, John Means, Dean Kremer and Irvin. Right-handers Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells are on the 15-day injured list. Rodriguez doesn’t seem far off from returning and will surely step back into the MLB rotation when healthy. With Irvin and Kremer pitching very well of late, there’s sense in moving to a six-man staff when Rodriguez is back given the upcoming heavy schedule.

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Baltimore Orioles Craig Kimbrel

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Rangers Sign Chasen Shreve, Peter Solomon To Minor League Deals

By Anthony Franco | May 10, 2024 at 8:44pm CDT

The Rangers have signed Chasen Shreve and Peter Solomon to minor league contracts, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. It seems likely that both pitchers will head to Triple-A Round Rock.

Shreve signed a minor league pact with Texas over the offseason. He was in camp as a non-roster invitee but didn’t make the team after allowing four runs through six innings. Shreve initially accepted an assignment to Round Rock. He made 10 appearances, working 10 1/3 frames of three-run ball, before triggering an opt-out at the start of May. Shreve spent a week exploring the market before circling back to Texas on a new minor league deal.

It’s fairly common for veterans of Shreve’s ilk to opt out of one minor league deal only to re-sign on a similar arrangement. The brief free agent stay at least gave his camp a chance to see if another team was willing to offer an immediate MLB job. It’s possible the new contract also contains another opt-out that wasn’t in the original deal.

Shreve has pitched parts of 10 seasons in the big leagues. He has a 3.97 ERA in 356 innings between seven clubs. The 33-year-old split last year with the Tigers and Reds. Shreve allowed 4.63 earned runs per nine with solid strikeout (23.3%) and walk (7.3%) numbers through 44 2/3 frames.

Solomon, 27, also pitched in the majors as recently as last season. He has far less MLB experience than Shreve, tallying 27 1/3 innings through 11 appearances in long relief. The Notre Dame product is a former fourth-round draftee of the Astros. He debuted with Houston in 2021 and made five appearances for the Diamondbacks early last season. Arizona ran him through outright waivers in June and he reached minor league free agency at year’s end.

The right-hander opened 2024 in independent ball. He signed with the High Point Rockers of the Atlantic League, where he started three games. Solomon’s nine runs allowed in 12 2/3 innings isn’t eye-catching, but he ran a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio that evidently impressed the Rangers enough to give him another chance in affiliated ball.

Solomon has a 6.59 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in his abbreviated MLB work. He has pitched parts of three seasons in the Pacific Coast League, allowing a 6.16 ERA in 261 1/3 innings. Solomon has managed a decent 22.1% strikeout rate while working mostly out of the rotation at the top minor league level. He can pitch in the rotation or in long relief at Round Rock.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Chasen Shreve Peter Solomon

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Rockies Moving Peter Lambert Back To Bullpen

By Anthony Franco | May 10, 2024 at 7:10pm CDT

The Rockies are kicking Peter Lambert back to the bullpen, manager Bud Black told reporters (X link via Thomas Harding of MLB.com). Lefty Ty Blach is a candidate to step into the rotation spot, though the Rox will wait to see if Blach is needed in relief over the weekend before making that call.

Lambert opened the season in relief. He tossed 11 2/3 innings of three-run ball behind a 61.3% ground-ball percentage over the season’s first few weeks. Colorado gave him another look as a starter when they lost Kyle Freeland to the injured list. Lambert has started three of his past four outings and been hit much harder than he was early in the year. The 27-year-old righty didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in any of his appearances. He allowed at least four runs in all three starts, including a seven-run showing against the Giants on Wednesday.

A former second-round pick, Lambert has generally struggled over the past few seasons. He started 11 of 25 outings last year, allowing 5.36 earned runs per nine. Lambert actually fared much better as a starter than he did in relief in 2023, but that has been flipped this season.

Colorado’s pitching has been below-average in all respects. The bullpen entered play Friday ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.67 ERA. The starting staff has had an even tougher time, sporting an MLB-worst 6.17 earned run average. Even in the context of the game’s toughest home environment for pitchers, that’s subpar production. The Rockies are the only team with a single-digit win total. They enter tonight’s game against the Rangers at 9-28.

Blach, 33, is in his third season with his hometown club. He cracked the big league roster on April 21 after signing a minor league contract over the winter. The soft-tossing southpaw has done a decent job in the early going, allowing only five runs through 13 innings in a long relief role. Blach isn’t going to miss many bats, but he’s not afraid to attack the strike zone and has at least had some success this year. He started 13 of 20 big league outings last season, surrendering a 5.54 ERA through 78 innings.

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Colorado Rockies Peter Lambert Ty Blach

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The Red Sox’ Surprising Rotation Anchors

By Anthony Franco | May 10, 2024 at 12:29pm CDT

The Red Sox are out to a decent start in 2024. Despite dropping five of their last six, they’re above .500 at 19-18. They’re currently in third place in a division where most observers felt they’d finish fourth or fifth. That’s a credit to a pitching staff that leads the majors with a 2.75 earned run average.

Boston’s bullpen looked solid coming into the year, yet the rotation was more of a question mark. It wasn’t that the group was devoid of talent. It was light on pitchers with a proven track record as starters, though, particularly after Lucas Giolito went down for the season in Spring Training. That left the Sox relying on a handful of pitchers who’d been productive as relievers to shoulder important rotation jobs. They’ve delivered thus far, with Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford out to particularly excellent starts.

Houck and Crawford are the only members of Boston’s season-opening rotation who haven’t spent time on the injured list. Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta have all missed time. (Pivetta returned on Wednesday and Bello could be back by the weekend.) Houck wasn’t even a lock for the Opening Day starting five until Giolito’s injury. By all accounts, the Sox rotation should have struggled to this point.

Instead, they easily lead the majors with a 2.33 ERA. That’s at least partially a reflection of their usage. Only the White Sox — whose rotation has been one of the league’s worst — have allowed their starters to face an opposing hitter for a third time in an outing less often. Alex Cora is getting to the bullpen early, which takes some of the higher-pressure at-bats off the rotation. Yet that doesn’t entirely detract from how effective Boston’s starters have been.

Crawford, 28, has appeared in parts of four seasons. He held a rotation spot from June onward last year, turning in solid if unexciting results. Over 23 starts, he worked to a 4.51 ERA with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. It was enough for the Sox to guarantee him a rotation spot even when they expected Giolito would be healthy. He went into 2024 with a season-opening starting job for the first time in his career.

The right-hander has doubled down on last year’s success. Through eight starts, he carries a 1.75 ERA that ranks seventh among qualified starters. He has fanned 24.3% of opponents and is generating swinging strikes at a solid 12.3% clip. Crawford has held opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of his appearances.

Crawford probably isn’t an ace. He’s not missing bats at the level associated with the game’s truly elite pitchers. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who’ll surely allow a few more home runs over the course of the year. Crawford looks like a legitimate mid-rotation arm, though. He’s attacking hitters with more offspeed stuff — part of a team-wide philosophical shift under new pitching coach Andrew Bailey — and has done an excellent job staying off barrels. That’s true against left-handed and righty batters alike, making it difficult for opponents to play matchups and allowing him to at least work through the batting order twice in a start.

That has also been true for Houck, at least this season. Concerns about the right-hander’s low arm angle and heavy reliance on a sinker/slider combination have led some evaluators to project him to the bullpen going back to his college days in Missouri. It’s difficult to avoid huge platoon splits with that kind of profile. Left-handed batters can identify the ball early in his delivery. For most of his career, Houck hasn’t had a pitch to keep opposing southpaws at bay.

Houck kicked between starting and relief over his first three-plus seasons. He worked out of the rotation for all 21 of his appearances last year but struggled to a 5.01 ERA. Handling left-handed hitters was indeed an issue. Through the end of the 2023 season, Houck stifled righties to a .214/.282/.283 batting line behind a 27.4% strikeout rate. Lefty batters turned in a much more productive .251/.343/.420 slash while striking out 22% of the time. Lefties drew more walks and hit for much more power against him.

That hasn’t been the case this season. While Houck has still been better against right-handed hitters in 2024, that’s more a reflection of his dominance against everyone than any kind of issue handling southpaws. Houck is holding left-handers to a .227/.279/.258 slash in 104 plate appearances. His 21.2% strikeout rate isn’t great, but he has more than halved his walks and pushed his ground-ball percentage north of 60%. Even if they’re still putting the ball in play at a decent clip, lefty batters aren’t doing any kind of damage. (Houck has completely befuddled right-handed opponents, limiting them to a .203/.234/.284 mark behind a huge 31.2% strikeout rate.)

As is the case with Crawford, Houck has found that new level by moving away from his heater. Houck has essentially doubled the usage of his splitter against left-handed batters while scaling back on his fastball and cutter. The split isn’t a new pitch — he has had it throughout his career — but he’s getting more downward action on it. The uptick in its deployment suggests Houck is far more comfortable with the pitch than he’d been before this year.

Whether Crawford and Houck can maintain an upper mid-rotation pace or better over a full schedule remains to be seen. Neither pitcher has yet reached 130 major league innings in a season. Opposing lineups will adjust to their heavier reliance on offspeed stuff, and league-wide offense generally improves as the weather warms. They’ve each been among the best pitchers in the majors through six weeks, though. These kinds of breakouts are necessary for a team to outperform expectations and stick in the playoff mix against the odds.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals Kutter Crawford Tanner Houck

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | May 10, 2024 at 12:00pm CDT

MLBTR writer Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively with Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on A's star closer Mason Miller, the forthcoming debut of Paul Skenes, the Astros' playoff chances, whether the Orioles should make a change in their bullpen, the Yankees' rotation and more -- including questions on the Pirates, Reds, Mariners, Brewers, White Sox, Tigers and Padres.

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Mason Miller Drawing Trade Attention

By Anthony Franco | May 9, 2024 at 10:57pm CDT

The A’s are receiving early trade calls on closer Mason Miller, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While the team is at least broadly open to discussions, Rosenthal reports that no one has come close to what is understandably a huge ask.

Miller has been one of the league’s breakout players in 2024. It certainly didn’t come out of nowhere — he has been widely regarded as a Top 100 prospect in each of the last two years — but the second-year righty is already one of the best relievers in the game. Miller gave up two runs in his first appearance of the season against the Guardians. He hasn’t been scored on in 12 games since, and that understates his dominance.

The 25-year-old has recorded multiple strikeouts in all but two of his outings. He has fanned 33 of the 60 batters who have stepped in against him. That’s a laughable 55% rate. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, Cincinnati’s Fernando Cruz ranks second with a 47.3% strikeout percentage. Only four qualified relievers — Devin Williams (during the abbreviated 2020 schedule), Aroldis Chapman (2014), Craig Kimbrel (2012) and Edwin Díaz (2022) — have ever maintained a strikeout rate north of 50% over a full season. Miller has induced swinging strikes on more than 21% of his pitches, a mark only narrowly topped by Cruz. He has paired that overwhelming stuff with strong control, issuing just four walks without hitting a batter.

[Related: The A’s Overpowering Closer]

It’s not difficult to understand why opponents haven’t had any success making contact. Miller’s stuff is off the charts. His fastball is averaging 100.8 MPH and can run into the 103-104 MPH range at its high end. He has paired it with an upper-80s slider that drew plus or better reviews from prospect evaluators and has been nearly unhittable. Opponents are coming up empty almost half the time they swing at both offerings.

Every bullpen would be massively upgraded with Miller at the back end. It’s entirely unsurprising that teams would look to pry him from Oakland and that the A’s would need a massive haul to consider it. On top of Miller’s dominance, he’s under affordable club control for years to come. He entered 2024 with less than one season of MLB service. He’s not on track to reach free agency until the end of the 2029 campaign. Miller is a lock to go through arbitration four times as a Super Two player, but that won’t begin until after next season.

The A’s are still deep into a rebuild despite a reasonable 18-21 start. They’re very unlikely to hang in the playoff mix this year, although they surely anticipate being a legitimate contender well within Miller’s window of team control. A player of this caliber who still has five-plus years of control being traded is essentially unheard of.

However, Miller’s status is at least somewhat clouded by an alarming injury history. He barely pitched in the minors in 2022 because of shoulder troubles. The A’s nevertheless called him up early last season to work from the rotation. Miller made four starts before being diagnosed with a UCL sprain in his elbow. He was shelved into September. The A’s used him out of the bullpen for 2-3 inning stints once he returned.

GM David Forst announced early last offseason the A’s would move Miller to late-inning relief this year in an effort to keep him healthy. They’ve maintained they’re not opposed to stretching him back out as a starter in ’25, although he may wind up being so impressive as a reliever the team chooses not to mess with success.

There’s no small amount of stress put on the arm of a pitcher who throws as hard as Miller does. The front office presumably has some concern about the possibility he suffers another significant injury. That would be the main argument for genuinely considering trade offers, though Miller also clearly has the talent to be a franchise building block. That’s particularly true if the A’s are serious about potentially moving him back to the rotation in 2025.

Significant trades this early in the season are rare, although the Padres and Marlins lined up on the Luis Arraez swap last week. Teams will certainly continue trying to tempt the A’s as the deadline gets closer. Miller would be their most valuable trade chip, while players like Paul Blackburn, Brent Rooker, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood could draw attention.

Speculatively speaking, Lucas Erceg could also emerge as one of the more intriguing relievers on the deadline market. A former third baseman, Erceg was a late convert to pitching whom the A’s acquired from the Brewers in a minor trade nearly a year ago. While he struggled to a 4.75 ERA over 55 innings as a rookie, he has been a key high-leverage arm for skipper Mark Kotsay in 2024. Erceg has managed 22 strikeouts over 15 frames of 3.60 ERA ball. His fastball is sitting in the 98-99 MPH range.

Erceg also has six years of team control, so there’s no urgency for the A’s to move him. He’s already 29 years old and not as overpowering as Miller, though, so he’s less likely to be a major long-term piece coming out of the rebuild.

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