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Padres To Select Jose Espada

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September 22: The Padres have now made it official, announcing they have selected Espada’s contract. Righty Nick Hernandez was optioned to open an active roster spot while Hill was transferred to the 60-day to open a 40-man spot.

September 21: The Padres will promote right-hander Jose Espada to the majors, according to an announcement from the American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen. The pitcher confirmed the news in a Spanish-language interview with Antolín Ríos of El Nuevo Día. The Padres have a full 40-man roster but a number of players (e.g. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Tim Hill) who are out for the season and can be transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Espada, 26, gets to the majors more than eight years after entering the professional ranks. The Blue Jays selected him in the fifth round of the 2015 draft out of an academy in Puerto Rico. The 6’0″ hurler would spend four-plus seasons in the Toronto system without getting past Low-A. He went to the Red Sox in the minor league Rule 5 draft, topping out at High-A in two years there.

After qualifying for minor league free agency, Espada signed with the Milkmen. He made eight starts in the independent ranks before getting back to affiliated ball on a minor league pact with the Padres. Espada tossed 40 innings of 4.05 ERA ball in High-A down the stretch last season and held his spot with San Diego into 2023.

Espada has divided this year between Double-A San Antonio and Triple-A El Paso. Working mostly as a long reliever, he has put together a sub-3.00 ERA showing at both spots in a breakout season. Between the two affiliates, he’s allowing 2.81 earned runs per nine across 83 1/3 frames. Espada has punched out an excellent 31.4% of opposing hitters against a lofty 12.6% walk percentage.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in July that Espada can miss bats with both his curveball and changeup but has below-average fastball velocity. After a winding road between three organizations and indie ball, he’ll get his first look on a big league staff. Espada can work multiple innings out of the bullpen for manager Bob Melvin.

Rays Promote Junior Caminero

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Sept. 22: Caminero’s promotion to the Majors has now been formally announced by the Rays. Outfielder Luke Raley was placed on the 10-day IL, opening an active roster spot, and righty Trevor Kelley was designated for assignment to make space on the 40-man roster. (You can read up on those corresponding moves here.)

Sept. 21: The Rays are calling up top infield prospect Junior Caminero, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They’ll need to select him onto the 40-man roster, which is at capacity.

Caminero, who turned 20 years old in July, becomes the youngest player in the majors. He makes the jump directly from Double-A Montgomery, where he has spent the bulk of the 2023 campaign. Caminero began the year in High-A and was bumped to Montgomery at the end of May.

A native of the Dominican Republic, Caminero signed with Cleveland during the 2019-20 international signing period. He was playing in the Dominican Summer League when the Rays acquired him in a trade that has the potential to go down as one of the more lopsided in recent history. At the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the 2021 Rule 5 draft, Cleveland sent Caminero to Tampa Bay for right-hander Tobias Myers.

Myers posted a 6.00 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and was lost on waivers without getting to the majors. Caminero has broken through as one of the sport’s most talented young players. He reached full-season ball last season before this year’s true emergence as a top-tier prospect.

Caminero raked at a .356/.409/.685 clip in 36 High-A contests. He has barely slowed down since moving to Double-A, shredding older competition en route to a .309/.373/.548 line. The right-handed hitter has popped 31 home runs, 18 doubles and six triples over 510 cumulative trips to the dish. He has kept his strikeout rate to a lower than average 19.6%, including a meager 17.1% mark in Double-A.

Alongside the massive numbers, Caminero has impressed scouts with his physical tools. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel named him the sport’s #5 prospect last month; he also checks in fifth on the updated ranking at Baseball America. Those reports credit him with plus or better power potential, with McDaniel noting that he has a chance to be a 40-homer hitter at peak. ESPN suggests his plate approach can be a little aggressive — he’s walking at an average 8.2% clip in the minors — but there’s general agreement that Caminero could be an impact offensive player.

It’s nevertheless a bold move for the Rays to call upon him in the midst of a pennant race. He’ll obviously face a massive escalation in the quality of pitcher he’ll face down the stretch. Tampa Bay has already secured a playoff spot but has little margin for error if they’re to track down the Orioles for the AL East title and top seed in the American League. They’re a game and a half back of Baltimore after they beat the Angels and the O’s dropped their matchup with Cleveland.

Caminero has mostly split his time between third base and shortstop in the minors. Scouting reports suggest he’s likely to settle in at third base as he fills out physically. Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead are splitting the hot corner, while defensive specialist Taylor Walls is at shortstop. Walls has a dismal .170/.267/.226 batting line in the second half, so the Rays could give some reps there to Caminero if they’re in search of an offensive boost. Luke Raley is also day-to-day with a left arm issue that recently required an MRI, freeing up some designated hitter at-bats (either for Caminero directly or for Paredes if the Rays wanted to plug Caminero in at third base).

The Rays will be able to carry Caminero on the playoff roster if they decide he’s ready for October action. While he wasn’t on the 40-man roster at the start of September, he was in the organization. Teams can (and often do) petition the league for a player who wasn’t on the 40-man at the beginning of the month to get onto a postseason roster as an injury substitute.

Caminero will be paid at the MLB minimum rate and collect a couple weeks of service time. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2029 season and won’t qualify for arbitration until the 2026-27 offseason at the earliest. Future assignments back to the minor leagues could push that timeline further. Caminero will remain a rookie headed into 2024, leaving open the possibility of netting the club an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive if they carry him for a full service year.

Royals Outright Matt Beaty

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The Royals have sent Matt Beaty outright to Triple-A Omaha, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. The left-handed hitter was designated for assignment on Tuesday.

Beaty appeared in 26 games after re-signing with K.C. on a minor league pact in June. He’d also signed with the Royals in Spring Training before being traded to the Giants on Opening Day. San Francisco immediately called him up but only played him four times before waiving him. After going unclaimed, Beaty chose free agency and circled back to Kansas City.

In 67 trips to the plate, Beaty hit .232/.358/.304. He walked six times with 12 strikeouts but only had four extra-base hits, all of which were doubles. Beaty is best suited for first base or a corner outfield position, putting extra pressure on his bat.

The former 12th-round draftee posted above-average offensive numbers in a part-time role with the Dodgers from 2019-21. He hit .262/.333/.425 in 240 contests. Los Angeles nevertheless DFA him before the start of the 2022 campaign. Beaty hasn’t hit well in scattered looks over the two seasons since then. He’s a .173/.271/.240 hitter in 119 big league plate appearances since the Dodgers dealt him.

Beaty has the right to again test free agency. He’d be a minor league free agent at the beginning of the offseason anyhow unless the Royals add him back to the roster.

MLBTR Poll: Michael Wacha’s Option

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Among last winter’s notable free agents, few remained unsigned as long as Michael Wacha. The veteran right-hander was on the market until mid-February. He eventually inked a four-year, $26MM guarantee to join the Padres, although the contract structure was rather complex.

Wacha was guaranteed $7.5MM for this season between his salary and a signing bonus. (He subsequently earned an additional $500K for starting 20 games.) This winter, the Padres will have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM options — essentially a two-year, $32MM pact. If the Friars decline, Wacha would have a $6.5MM player option for next season (with two additional $6MM player options thereafter). If neither side exercises its end of the option, he’d return to free agency.

The 32-year-old’s production is quite similar to last year’s work. After posting a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts for the Red Sox a year ago, he’s allowed 3.44 earned runs per nine over 22 appearances this season. As was the case last season, estimators like FIP (4.02) and SIERA (4.49) are less enthused than his ERA would suggest. That reflects fine but unexceptional strikeout and walk marks. Wacha’s 22.2% strikeout percentage and 8.2% walk rate are right in line with the respective 22.1% and 7.9% league averages for starting pitchers.

Last season, Wacha had slightly lower than average strikeout and walk figures. His fastball speed has dipped from 93 MPH to 91.8 MPH, though he’s compensated by leaning a little more on his cutter and changeup. His overall swinging-strike rate is up one percentage point.

Those are minor changes. In aggregate, Wacha looks largely the same as he did a season ago. The market didn’t seem to materialize the way he’d anticipated last winter, leading to his extended free agent stay. It’s possible teams are more inclined to buy into Wacha’s stronger bottom line results after a second sub-3.50 ERA showing, though his production has tailed off down the stretch.

He carried a 2.84 ERA over 85 2/3 innings into the All-Star Break. He’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine in 34 2/3 frames in the second half. Wacha’s strikeout and ground-ball rates have improved as the season has gone on, but he has paired that with a few more walks of late. His production also tailed off in the second half of the 2022 campaign, when he posted a 4.11 ERA after running a 2.69 mark through the break.

The Padres’ call on a two-year, $32MM option looks as if it could go either way. There were a handful of veteran pitchers who signed in that range last winter. Nathan Eovaldi got $34MM over two seasons from the Rangers, who also surrendered a draft choice after he declined a qualifying offer. Eovaldi had pitched to a 3.80 ERA over 291 2/3 innings in the preceding two seasons but had superior strikeout and walk marks to Wacha.

The Giants inked Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to matching two-year, $25MM guarantees with an opt-out after the first season. Stripling is perhaps the closest comparison point to Wacha, as he was coming off a 3.01 ERA in his platform season despite a modest 20.7% strikeout rate. As with Wacha, Stripling’s career track record has been inconsistent. Manaea was more of a rebound flier, as he’d had a dismal second half preceding his free agent trip.

José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and Tyler Anderson (three years, $39MM after rejecting a qualifying offer) each had a sub-3.00 ERA in their platform seasons. Both had mixed results in the few years leading up to 2022 and were older than Wacha is now. They each showed strong command last season with roughly average swing-and-miss rates and low-90s velocity.

Wacha fits in that category of back-end starter, which generally received around $12-13MM annually over two or three years last winter. Wacha’s $16MM club options are a bit above that, but the player option values are well below it. If the Padres decline their end, Wacha is very likely to opt out and test free agency. He at least shouldn’t have any issue topping the respective $17MM and $19MM two-year guarantees secured by Jordan Lyles and Drew Smyly last offseason.

The Padres are one of the league’s higher-spending franchises and already facing ample uncertainty in their rotation. Blake Snell is going to be a free agent. Seth Lugo is almost certainly going to decline a player option and test the market. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are the only veteran starters guaranteed to be in next year’s rotation; both ended this season on the injured list. Nick Martinez could opt out of his own deal if the Friars decline a two-year, $32MM extension.

None of the other pitchers to log any kind of rotation time for San Diego are clear answers. Ryan Weathers was traded away at the deadline. Rich Hill has been knocked around and seems likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. Pedro Avila and Matt Waldron have ERA’s around 6.00 when working as starters. If the Padres don’t retain Wacha, they’ll likely need to add one or two similar pitchers in free agency or trade.

Is it worthwhile for the Padres to preserve some stability by locking Wacha back in at the start of the offseason, even if the annual salary is a bit beyond what he’d likely receive on the open market? Would they be better served preserving that flexibility going into the winter as they sort through other rotation possibilities?

(poll link for app users)

How Will Michael Wacha's Option Be Resolved?
Padres exercise their end. 43.35% (1,255 votes)
Both sides decline; Wacha hits free agency. 39.41% (1,141 votes)
Padres decline; Wacha opts in. 17.24% (499 votes)
Total Votes: 2,895

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Notes: Counsell, Ashby, Stadium

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With a magic number of three to clinch the NL Central, the Brewers could punch their ticket to the postseason this weekend. It’ll be their fifth playoff appearance in eight full seasons under Craig Counsell, the longest-tenured active skipper in the National League. Nevertheless, Counsell’s future in Milwaukee beyond October isn’t clear. He’s in the final season of a contract extension he signed in January 2020.

Owner Mark Attanasio told reporters last month that Counsell and the team had agreed to defer talks about an extension until after the ’23 campaign. That has led to plenty of speculation about the 53-year-old potentially going elsewhere or leaving the dugout entirely. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Counsell is expected to continue managing in 2024, though his future obviously won’t be entirely clear until the offseason. According to Heyman, Counsell is making $3.5MM with Milwaukee this season.

Attanasio has made clear the Brewers hope to retain Counsell, who has led the team to a 701-621 record (53% win percentage) over his tenure. There aren’t any teams with a current managerial vacancy, though there’s been plenty of chatter about Terry Francona potentially stepping away from the Guardians after this season. The Mets are set to hire David Stearns away from the Milwaukee front office to lead baseball operations at year’s end, which figures to fuel some speculation regarding Counsell until his situation is resolved and/or the Mets make a firm commitment to current manager Buck Showalter.

Elsewhere in Milwaukee:

  • Left-hander Aaron Ashby will join Triple-A Nashville on a minor league rehab stint, the club informed reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Journal-Sentinel). He’s trying to work back from early-April arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Ashby has been on the injured list all season and has battled shoulder woes at least as far back as last August. While the 25-year-old has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts and grounders at the big league level, his efforts to secure a rotation spot have been held back by inconsistent control and frustrating injury issues. The Brewers are presumably hoping for Ashby to work in short relief stints if he can make it back this fall.
  • The club also continues efforts to secure funding for renovations to American Family Field, as chronicled by A.J. Bayatpour of CBS 58. Earlier this week, state legislators proposed a spending plan that’d see north of $700MM in renovations as part of an agreement to extend the club’s lease by 20 years to run through the 2050 season. Under that proposal, the team would put in $100MM, the city/county would contribute just over $200MM combined, and the state would pay roughly $411MM. According to Bayatpour, the legislature could vote on the proposal at some point next month.

Guardians To Activate Shane Bieber From Injured List

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The Guardians are listing Shane Bieber as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s matchup with the Orioles. He’ll go up against Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer.

That indicates that Cleveland will reinstate Bieber from the 60-day injured list tomorrow. As reflected on the MLB.com injury tracker, the club is hoping for Bieber to throw around 80 pitches. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner tossed 64 pitches on Sunday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus.

Bieber hasn’t pitched in a big league game since July 9. Coming out of the All-Star Break, the Guardians announced he’d been dealing with forearm discomfort. An MRI revealed elbow inflammation that led the club to shut him down entirely for a few weeks. While there was never any suggestion he could require surgery, the issue was serious enough to cost him almost all of the second half.

His return comes too late for Cleveland to make a move in the standings. They’ll be eliminated from postseason contention with their next loss or a Minnesota win. Barring a nine-game win streak to close out the year, they’ll finish with a sub-.500 record. Bieber’s return won’t mean much in the standings, though he’ll get to make two or three starts to hopefully demonstrate a clean bill of health heading into the offseason.

Assuming he’s healthy, Bieber figures to be a popular target in trade discussions. The Guardians have shown a willingness to move quality starters as they get close to free agency, dealing away the likes of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. There was some thought they’d do the same with Bieber this summer, though his injury took that off the table. Cleveland did flip Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay for top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo instead.

Bieber is making just north of $10MM this season. He’ll be due a raise on that sum for what’ll be his final arbitration campaign next year. Bieber is coming off a relative down year by his standards. Prior to the stint on the injured list, he’d turned in a 3.77 ERA with a career-low 19.4% strikeout rate through 19 starts.

Opposing teams will surely still have interest in prying him from Cleveland. It remains to be seen if the offers will be strong enough for the Guardians to make a move. Cleveland figures to make another run at competing in the AL Central. The second-year trio of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen makes for a strong rotation nucleus, but Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie have struggled through injury-plagued 2023 campaigns.

McKenzie could also make it back in the coming days. MLB.com notes that the Guardians are hopeful the righty could take the ball in Sunday’s series finale; the club still lists their probable starter for that game as to be determined. The Guardians already have an opening on the 40-man roster for Bieber after waiving Matt Moore this week. They’d need to create a spot for McKenzie if he comes back this weekend, which could be accomplished by transferring Bibee to the 60-day IL due to his season-ending hip issue.

Byron Buxton To Begin Rehab Assignment

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Byron Buxton will begin a rehab stint at Triple-A St. Paul tomorrow, the Twins announced (relayed by Dan Hayes of the Athletic). He’ll start out as a designated hitter.

Buxton hasn’t played in an MLB game since he was placed on the injured list on August 4. While that stay on the shelf was related to a hamstring strain, soreness in his right knee has been the more pressing concern. Knee issues had kept Buxton from playing defense at any point this season. He got a start in center field when he began a rehab assignment at St. Paul three weeks ago, but he was quickly pulled off that stint when the knee flared back up.

The Twins should officially sew up the AL Central title by this weekend. They would clinch on tomorrow’s off day if both Detroit and Cleveland lose. They’re unlikely to track down the AL West winner to secure a first-round bye, so it’s highly likely they’ll go into October as the #3 seed in the American League. That leaves them a little under two weeks to sort things out for the postseason.

Minnesota is giving Carlos Correa at least a week and a half on the injured list to rest his left foot after playing through plantar fasciitis for the bulk of the season. They’ll now get another look at Buxton as he works to get to game readiness before the playoffs. While there are only four games remaining on the Triple-A schedule, Buxton could shake off more rust in low-leverage MLB contests during the final week of the regular season.

It isn’t clear whether that’ll include more action in the outfield. Manager Rocco Baldelli has previously left open the possibility of trying Buxton back in center field after the break in his rehab stint.

When healthy, Buxton is among the best defensive outfielders in the game. With the knee issue robbing him of that aspect this season, he’s having a down year. Buxton is hitting .207/.294/.438 with 17 home runs across 347 plate appearances. That’s middling production for a strict DH. Edouard Julien, who has been Minnesota’s primary DH with Buxton out, carries a .268/.378/.458 line over 371 trips in his rookie campaign. If the Twins have a fully healthy infield of Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Correa and Royce Lewis for the postseason (Lewis is day-to-day with hamstring soreness), the Twins could consider Julien their top DH option.

Padres’ Tim Hill Undergoes Finger Surgery

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Padres reliever Tim Hill underwent surgery today to address a ligament injury in his left ring finger, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He won’t throw for six to eight weeks but is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Hill, 34 in February, has spent the last four seasons as a situational option out of the San Diego bullpen. A sidearming lefty, he doesn’t throw hard but works from a low enough arm angle to usually keep the ball on the ground. Hill’s grounder percentage has been a bit north of 60% for three years running, while his career mark is just below that threshold. That resulted in consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings from 2021-22, but his results this season haven’t been as impressive.

Over 44 1/3 innings, Hill posted a 5.48 ERA. He struck out fewer than 13% of batters faced for the second straight year. While Hill kept his walks and grounders in his customary range, he struggled when opponents were able to elevate the ball. Right-handed hitters posted a .378/.431/.602 batting line in 110 plate appearances. Righties have frequently given him trouble, which isn’t uncommon for low-slot lefties, but this year’s results were easily a career worst.

Hill has generally fared well against same-handed batters. From 2020-22, he kept lefties to a .212/.299/.303 line in 262 trips to the plate. Opponents found more success this season, putting up a .275/.352/.400 mark over 92 plate appearances.

The Padres and Hill agreed on a $1.85MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. He’d be due a modest raise on that figure if San Diego wanted to keep him around for his final season of eligibility. Given his diminished results, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Padres opt against tendering him a contract.

Qualifying Offer Value To Land Around $20.5MM

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The qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason will be in the $20.5MM range, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The specific number may not be known until shortly after the conclusion of the regular season.

It’ll be the highest QO value in league history. The offer price is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors. That figure generally increases year over year as overall spending rises.

The annual progression of the QO value since its implementation during the 2012-13 offseason:

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM
  • 2022-23: $19.65MM
  • 2023-24: roughly $20.5MM

Teams can make the qualifying offer to an impending free agent who has a) never previously received a QO in their career and b) spent the entire 2023 season on their roster. It’d be a one-year offer valued at that approximate $20.5MM price point. Players tagged with the QO have five days to decide whether to accept that lofty one-year salary or decline in search of a free agent contract. Signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer from another team requires forfeiture of a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus space, depending upon the signing club’s revenue sharing status. A team receives compensation for the loss of a player who turned down a QO and signed elsewhere.

14 players received qualifying offers last offseason. Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez accepted. The other 12 players declined, though Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Nimmo subsequently ended up re-signing with their previous team.

Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Josh Hader are among the players who are near locks to receive and reject the QO this winter. Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito were taken out of QO consideration by midseason trades, while Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman are ineligible as previous recipients.

Jasson Dominguez Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Yankees rookie outfielder Jasson Domínguez underwent successful surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow this morning, the team announced. New York announced the procedure as both a Tommy John surgery and an internal brace repair.

The club announced last week that Domínguez would go under the knife, though the extent of the procedure wasn’t entirely clear until the operation began. The Yankees indicated last week that Domínguez was expected to miss 9-10 months in either event. They repeated that timeline in today’s announcement.

It’s likely the 20-year-old will be back around next summer’s All-Star Break. Domínguez will surely open next season on the 60-day injured list, where he’ll be paid at the MLB minimum rate and collect big league service time. Whether he’ll remain on the major league roster once he is activated remains to be seen.

Domínguez was attempting to stake a claim to an Opening Day outfield spot this month. The top prospect got into eight games, collecting eight hits (including four homers) in 33 trips to the plate. It was a strong first foot forward that was unfortunately cut short when he was diagnosed with the UCL tear on September 10.

The Yankees could look for two starting outfielders this winter. Aaron Judge is obviously locked into one spot, likely right field. 22-year-old Everson Pereira has started slowly since being called up for the first time at the start of the month. Current left fielder Oswaldo Cabrera has hit just .216/.285/.314 across 285 trips to the dish. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be a free agent. Estevan Florial has gotten the bulk of the center field playing time since Domínguez’s injury, but the out-of-options former top prospect isn’t a lock to hold his 40-man roster spot all offseason.

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