Yankees, Padres Have Had Preliminary Discussions On Juan Soto
The Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding the trade candidacy of Juan Soto, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Those discussions, which Martino unsurprisingly categorizes as “preliminary,” should be one of many calls that San Diego receives on the superstar outfielder in the weeks and months to come.
Teams are still prohibited from making trades, although there was never any chance of the Padres making such a monumental move this early in the offseason anyhow. Clubs can identify and discuss early targets in preparation for the reopening of the trade window, which occurs the day after the end of the World Series.
Speculation about Soto’s availability has lingered back to before the trade deadline. The scuffling Padres elected to buy over the summer, hoping those additions would combine with improved play out of their existing roster to push them back into contention. San Diego didn’t start winning consistently until it was too late, never erasing the deficit and finishing two games behind the Diamondbacks.
The underwhelming place in the standings alone was always going to reignite chatter about Soto’s availability. Adding fuel to the fire were various late-season reports that the Friars hoped to cut back spending. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune pegged the target figure around $200MM, which would be nearly $50MM south of this past season’s level. Even if the Padres don’t slice payroll to that extent, it seems clear they will be more austere this winter than they have in the past couple offseasons.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a $33MM salary next year, his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’d easily top the $30MM record which Shohei Ohtani established last winter for an arb-eligible player, making Soto the highest-paid player on the San Diego roster. Yet even that lofty figure is well below the open market value for one prime-aged season of a player who is among the game’s five best hitters.
The three-time All-Star overcame a relatively slow start to turn in a characteristically excellent season. Soto hit .275/.410/.519, popping 35 home runs while leading baseball with 132 walks. Among batters with 500+ plate appearances, he ranked third in on-base percentage and 11th in slugging.
Soto would be a massive upgrade for any team in baseball. While that’ll make him a popular target, it would also make trading him a massive decision for the Padres. San Diego is going to make another push to compete in 2024. Removing Soto from the equation makes that quite a bit harder, even if they’re able to reallocate some of that payroll room into addressing a mediocre bottom of the lineup and/or filling a rotation that could lose each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to free agency.
Even if the Padres were fully determined to cut player spending to the $200MM range, they don’t have to trade Soto to make that happen. If Wacha, Lugo and Nick Martinez each hit free agency, the Friars would have around $127MM in salary commitments for next season. That doesn’t include Soto’s arbitration projection, which would push them near $160MM. Arbitration projections for Trent Grisham and Scott Barlow would nudge them past $170MM.
That may not leave a ton of space in the budget for free agent acquisitions — and they’ll certainly need to address the rotation in some form — but it doesn’t force their hand on a Soto trade specifically. Any of Grisham, Barlow or Ha-Seong Kim would have appeal if the Padres were to consider marketing them instead.
Martino suggests that Soto could be available if another team puts forth an appropriate offer, indicating the 25-year-old is not categorically untouchable. That aligns with comments from president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at the start of the offseason. At season’s end, Preller told reporters the organization would reengage Soto’s representation at the Boras Corporation about a potential extension (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Asked about the possibility of a trade if they can’t work out a long-term deal, San Diego’s baseball ops leader noted they’ve “never been a group that (rules out) anything” before reiterating that their “first path” would be a chat with Soto’s camp about a contract.
If the Padres get to a point this offseason in which they’re seriously entertaining a Soto blockbuster, the Yankees are one of a number of teams that could be involved. New York is as good a fit as any given their willingness to spend at the top of the league and a need to address left field. Every team with payroll room would have room on the roster for Soto, although only teams with a legitimate path to contention in 2024 are plausible suitors to top the trade market for a player one year from free agency. The Yankees are the first of many teams that are likely to be mentioned in Soto rumors during the offseason.
Chris Holt Not Continuing As Orioles’ Pitching Coach, Remains Director Of Pitching
Chris Holt will not return to the Orioles’ MLB staff as pitching coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. He will remain in the organization as its director of pitching, a position he has held concurrently with the pitching coach title for a few seasons. Assistant pitching coach Darren Holmes is departing the organization entirely, Kubatko adds. The rest of Brandon Hyde’s staff is expected to return for what’ll be the manager’s sixth season.
Holt, 44, has been with Baltimore since 2019. He had previously worked with the Astros, following former Houston executive Mike Elias to Baltimore when the latter was hired as general manager. Holt was named to the MLB staff going into 2021. The O’s apparently prefer to allow him to focus more consistently on the overhead role that allows him to work with MLB and minor league arms alike.
Holmes joined Baltimore going into the 2020 season as bullpen coach. He was bumped to assistant pitching coach a year later. The 57-year-old had a 13-year big league playing career and had previously spent a half-decade as bullpen coach of the Rockies.
The O’s are likely to add two new coaches to fill the vacancies on the pitching side. Otherwise, they seem set to run with the same group they had in 2023. Fredi González is the bench coach, while Matt Borgschulte and Ryan Fuller serve as co-hitting coaches.
Braves Sign Pierce Johnson To Two-Year Extension
The Braves signed reliever Pierce Johnson to a two-year, $14.25MM extension, the club announced. (Atlanta is one of the few teams that publicly discloses contract terms.) Johnson, who was a couple weeks from free agency, is set for consecutive $7MM salaries between 2024-25 and is guaranteed a $250K buyout on a $7MM team option for 2026. For luxury tax purposes, the contract’s average annual value is $7.125MM. Johnson is a client of John Boggs & Associates.
Johnson, 33 next May, first joined the Braves in a deadline deal that sent minor league pitchers Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon to the Rockies. It wasn’t an especially high-profile move at the time. The right-hander owned a 6.00 ERA over 38 innings after signing a $5MM free agent deal with Colorado. Johnson had punched out a quality 30.9% of opponents with the Rox, so he wasn’t without upside, but few would’ve anticipated how resoundingly he’d turn his season around.
The Missouri State product tossed 23 2/3 regular season innings for Atlanta, allowing 0.76 earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate jumped more than five percentage points, as he fanned 36% of batters faced. His swinging strike rate spiked from a solid 12.3% to an elite 17.8% mark. He more than halved his walks and doubled his ground-ball percentage. Johnson pitched his way into high-leverage work and added three scoreless appearances in the Division Series.
Leaving Coors Field offers a partial explanation for the improved results, but it’s certainly not the entire story. Johnson has always had promising raw stuff, pairing a 96 MPH fastball with a mid-80s power curve. Upon landing in Atlanta, he dramatically upped the use of the breaking ball. Johnson turned to the hook nearly three quarters of the time as a Brave after deploying it in a near-even division with the fastball while in Denver. Given the results, it’s hard to find fault with that plan of attack.
The question is how much stock to place in two-plus months of dominance amidst an otherwise inconsistent career. Johnson had never shown anything near the level of control he did in Atlanta. He carried a career 12% walk rate in parts of six big league campaigns with the Cubs, Giants, Padres and Rockies before that trade. As a Brave, he handed out free passes to just 5.6% of opponents.
Johnson has flashed solid ability before, albeit never to the level he demonstrated in Atlanta. He turned in a 3.22 ERA over 58 2/3 frames with San Diego three seasons back. His 2022 campaign was derailed by forearm tendinitis that kept him to 15 appearances, setting the stage for his rebound deal with Colorado. Now, he has locked in the strongest guarantee of his career.
It still has the potential to be solid value for the Braves, as Johnson is being paid towards the lower end of the established range for quality setup arms in their mid-30s. Chris Martin secured $17.5MM over two years with the Red Sox last offseason, while Adam Ottavino got an opt-out clause in a $14.5MM deal with the Mets. Ryan Tepera ($14MM) and Joe Kelly ($17MM) landed similar pacts entering their age-34 campaign two years ago.
Atlanta has a solid bullpen, finishing 11th in ERA (3.81) and fifth in strikeout percentage (25.9%). They were set to potentially lose a few pieces from the group, with Joe Jiménez hitting free agency and various option scenarios for Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates and Brad Hand. The club is likely to decline its options on McHugh and Hand, while a net $4.5MM call on Yates is borderline. Re-signing Johnson locks him in alongside A.J. Minter and potentially Nick Anderson or Tyler Matzek as setup options to Raisel Iglesias. Further augmenting the middle relief seems a priority for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his front office.
The Braves are up to roughly $138MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class could tack on roughly $30MM. Roster Resource projects their luxury tax number in the $206MM range (including arbitration estimates), around $30MM below next year’s $237MM base threshold. The organization opened 2023 with a player payroll around $203MM, so there should still be a decent amount of short-term flexibility. In addition to the bullpen, bolstering the starting staff and perhaps upgrading on Eddie Rosario in left field could be offseason goals.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Dusty Baker To Announce Retirement Tomorrow
Dusty Baker is retiring, the longtime manager tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today. According to Nightengale, the 74-year-old informed Houston owner Jim Crane of his decision in a meeting yesterday. The Astros have scheduled a press conference for tomorrow afternoon to make the official announcement.
“I’m very grateful and thankful to Jim Crane and the Houston Astros for giving me this opportunity, and to win a championship,” Baker told Nightengale. “I felt like they’ve been good for me, and I’ve been good for them. What I really appreciate is that Jim has been totally honest and transparent with me on all things.”
The news doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. Chandler Rome and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic reported in the immediate aftermath of Houston’s elimination in the ALCS that Baker had been telling those close to him he planned to move on. Baker confirmed to Nightengale that he has known for some time that he was stepping away after this season. While he no longer wants the daily grind of managerial work, Baker told Nightengale he was hopeful of landing an advisory position with an organization to remain in the game in some capacity.
It’s the conclusion of what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame career. After concluding a near 20-year MLB playing career, Baker made the jump to managing. He took over the Giants in 1993, guiding the team to 103 wins in his first season. That still left them just shy of the postseason, and a trio of subsequent losing campaigns meant Baker didn’t get his initial playoff appearance until 1997. Baker made the postseason three times in San Francisco, highlighted by a trip to the World Series in 2002.
After the decade-long run in the Bay Area, Baker moved on to the Cubs. He guided Chicago to the NLCS in his first season, although that’d be his only playoff appearance in four years. Baker led the Reds from 2008-13, winning a pair of NL Central titles. After two years away from the game, he returned to the dugout in Washington. Baker led the Nationals from 2016-17 before being dismissed and replaced by Dave Martinez.
That appeared as if it could be the end of Baker’s lengthy career. He was away from the game for consecutive seasons. Once the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme was revealed, Houston fired A.J. Hinch early in 2020. The Astros sought a veteran manager to navigate the fallout of the scandal, tabbing Baker in late January.
The tenure started slowly, as Houston went just 29-31 in the shortened regular season. That was enough to qualify for the expanded postseason, however, and the Astros clicked in October. They made the ALCS, an achievement they’d repeat in all four of Baker’s seasons at the helm. Their sluggish regular season of 2020 wasn’t a factor in any of the subsequent full schedules, as Houston topped 90 wins and claimed division titles every season from 2021-23.
The Astros advanced to the World Series in 2021, dropping a six-game set against the Braves. They repeated as AL champions after a 106-win season a year ago. Houston carried that dominance into the postseason, sweeping the Mariners and Yankees to set up a Fall Classic matchup with the Phillies. They won the series in six games, securing the franchise’s second championship. It was the final box for Baker personally, marking his first title. The club fell just shy of a third straight pennant, although it marked the 12th playoff appearance of his career.
The Astros have gone 320-226 (58.6% win percentage) since the start of 2020. Baker’s clubs have won 54% of their regular season contests over his 26-year career. His 2,183 victories rank seventh in major league history. Aside from Baker, Bruce Bochy and Terry Francona — all of whom have remained active through this year — everyone in the top 14 on the wins leaderboard has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. MLBTR congratulates Baker on an illustrious career and wishes him all the best in retirement.
Houston becomes the fifth team with a managerial vacancy. The Guardians, Mets and Angels all fired their skippers, while Bob Melvin departed the Padres to join the division-rival Giants. Craig Counsell has considered various opportunities as his contract with the Brewers expires, leaving a sixth team with some amount of uncertainty.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Red Sox Officially Hire Craig Breslow As Chief Baseball Officer
TODAY: The Red Sox officially announced Breslow’s hiring today, with an introductory press conference scheduled for November 2, one week from today. Principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner, and team president Sam Kennedy all spoke glowingly of Breslow in statements.
“Each year, one baseball club emerges with a championship. Our organization continues to have significantly high standards and expectations with a goal of being able to compete annually for that coveted privilege,” Henry said, “We feel strongly that Craig is the right person at the right time to lead our baseball department. Craig’s understanding of the game is remarkable. What convinced us to bring him aboard in this capacity was his highly strategic philosophy and his grasp of what it takes operationally in today’s evolving game to excel at the highest level in player acquisition, development, and execution at the major league level. We are excited to welcome him back.”
Werner praised Breslow as “an extraordinary leader” while Kennedy noted the “astounding character references” the club received regarding Breslow from the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Cubs manager David Ross, all of whom played with Breslow during his time as a pitcher with the Red Sox. Breslow himself also released a statement.
“I couldn’t be more excited to return to the Boston Red Sox, an organization that means so much to my family and to me. I am humbled by the opportunity to lead baseball operations and to work alongside so many talented people.” Breslow said, “I know firsthand how special winning in Boston is, and I look forward to once again experiencing that passion and success with our fans.”
Oct. 25: Craig Breslow has accepted the Red Sox’s offer to take over as head of baseball operations, report Alex Speier and Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe (X link). He is expected to be named chief baseball officer, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on X). The team will presumably wait until Wednesday before announcing the hire.
Breslow, 43, is a Yale graduate who spent 12 seasons in the majors as a reliever. While he spread that across seven organizations, he’s best known for his time with the Sox. The New Haven native pitched 211 innings across five campaigns with Boston, turning in a 1.81 ERA for the 2013 World Series club.
After concluding his playing career in 2018, Breslow signed on with the Cubs as their director of strategic initiatives for baseball operations. He shed that wordy title when he was named director of pitching one season later. The following year, the Cubs bumped him to AGM in Jed Hoyer’s front office, a title he has held for the last three years.
Just a half-decade after first joining a front office, he’ll get his crack at running the show. Breslow replaces Chaim Bloom, who was fired midway through September with the team en route to a second straight last place finish. Boston finished the season at 78-84, an identical record as they had in 2022.
Breslow will be tasked with pushing the club back into contention in one of the game’s toughest divisions. He steps into a situation that’s certainly not devoid of talent but comes with an uncertain direction. The Red Sox ranked 11th in run scoring behind a lineup anchored by Rafael Devers and Triston Casas this past season. Former top prospect Jarren Duran took a step forward to secure an outfield spot.
Boston will have some decisions to make as they build around that group. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option, subtracting one of their top hitters from this year. Alex Verdugo is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and could be a trade candidate. The Sox will need better from Trevor Story at shortstop but could upgrade at second base, which was a revolving door during Bloom’s tenure. Masataka Yoshida is on hand in left field and at designated hitter, while they could explore ways to upgrade on the catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire.
The pitching side has its share of uncertainty as well. Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock are all effective multi-inning arms who haven’t cemented themselves as starters. Brayan Bello tailed off following a promising first half. Chris Sale has battled myriad injuries in recent years. Boston’s rotation finished 22nd in ERA.
While a mediocre defense hasn’t done the pitching many favors, sorting out the rotation might be the top priority for Breslow and his front office staff. The longtime hurler unsurprisingly took on a heavy workload in building the pitching infrastructure in Chicago, as The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Patrick Mooney, Jen McCaffrey and Chad Jennings chronicle.
The Red Sox have a solid minor league pipeline and an organizational track record of running higher-end payrolls. They’ve cut back on player spending of late, opening this season outside the top 10 for the first time this century (as covered by Cot’s Baseball Contracts). It’s unclear precisely how much ownership will make available this offseason, although it’s apparent the Sox are going to make some kind of effort to compete in 2024.
Breslow joins Texas GM Chris Young, White Sox GM Chris Getz and Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto as former MLB players who are now in charge of a front office. He landed the job over the likes of Minnesota GM Thad Levine, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, former Giants manager Gabe Kapler and internal candidates like Eddie Romero, Michael Groopman and Paul Toboni — all of whom met with Boston brass. Various high-profile executives (e.g. James Click, Kim Ng, Derek Falvey and Mike Hazen) either declined interviews or pulled themselves out of the mix at one point or another.
It’s possible Breslow’s hiring is just the first, if most important, in constructing the new look front office. There have been reports that Boston could also hire a new #2 executive in the kind of arrangement that has become commonplace around the game.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Houston Astros
In conjunction with their offseason outlook, Anthony Franco held an Astros-specific chat. Click here to view the transcript.
Eric Lauer Elects Free Agency
Starting pitcher Eric Lauer has elected minor league free agency, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. That was the anticipated outcome when Milwaukee sent the left-hander outright from the 40-man roster last week.
Lauer pitched four seasons in Milwaukee. The Brewers acquired the former first-round draftee alongside Luis Urías in a 2019-20 offseason deal that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres. He was a non-factor during the shortened season but rebounded with consecutive solid years in 2021 and ’22. Lauer combined for a 3.47 ERA with a slightly above-average 23.8% strikeout percentage in 277 1/3 innings over that stretch.
The 28-year-old didn’t replicate anything near that kind of production this past season. He struggled to a 5.48 ERA in his first nine outings. An impingement in his non-throwing shoulder sent him to the injured list in late May. While he returned within a few weeks, the Brewers had decided not to keep him on the big league staff. They optioned him to Triple-A upon his reinstatement from the IL.
Lauer started nine of 12 appearances at Triple-A Nashville, posting a 5.15 ERA in 43 2/3 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He punched out a strong 31.1% of minor league opponents while walking over 11% of batters faced. He didn’t get another MLB look until the final weekend, when the Brewers had already clinched the NL Central and were keeping their top starters in reserve for the playoffs. Lauer was tagged for eight runs on nine hits (including three homers) in four innings against the Cubs in what turned out to be his final start with Milwaukee.
The Kent State product has between four and five years of major league service. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $5.2MM arbitration salary, which no team was prepared to offer. Now that he’s a free agent, Lauer will at least draw minor league interest and may well find a low-cost MLB deal.
He’s only a season removed from looking like a viable #3/4 starter, although this year’s rough production came in tandem with a drop in velocity. His four-seam fastball averaged 90.8 MPH during his major league work, more than two ticks below last summer’s 93.3 MPH average. He lost three MPH on both his cutter and curveball. As the season was winding down, Lauer told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that he’d battled inflammation in his throwing elbow and shoulder in addition to the right shoulder injury, contributing to the Brewers keeping him out of minor league action between June 12 and July 28.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. Houston can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yordan Alvarez, DH: $103MM through 2028
- Cristian Javier, RHP: $59MM through 2027
- Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $51MM through 2026
- José Abreu, 1B: $39MM through 2025
- Alex Bregman, 3B: $28.5MM through 2024
- Jose Altuve, 2B: $26MM through 2024
- Rafael Montero, RHP: $23MM through 2025
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $16MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 vesting option)
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $12.033MM through 2024 (deal includes vesting player option for ’25)*
- Hector Neris, RHP: $8.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
- Kendall Graveman, RHP: $8MM through 2024
Option Decisions
- RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5MM player option with $1MM buyout**
2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533MM
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533MM
* Mets are responsible for $31.3MM of Verlander’s $43.333MM salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical
Arbitration-Eligible Players
- Framber Valdez (4.163): $12.1MM
- Kyle Tucker (4.079): $12.6MM
- José Urquidy (4.049): $3.5MM
- Mauricio Dubón (3.162): $3.1MM
- Luis Garcia (3.083): $2.1MM
- Bryan Abreu (3.022): $2MM
- Chas McCormick (3.000): $3.1MM
Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.
Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.
It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.
While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5MM player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.
Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.
That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multi-year pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.
The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.
Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.
This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, although he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.
Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.
Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5MM salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.
The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.
Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.
Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, although it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true #2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.
Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.
Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.
The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.
There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5MM salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193MM before considering outside additions.
That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188MM; they entered this year in the $180MM range.
Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.
The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75MM on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5MM.
That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.
Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151MM extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.
The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.
Red Sox Have Offered Top Baseball Operations Job To Craig Breslow
The Red Sox’s search for a new baseball operations leader is accelerating, with one candidate pulling ahead of the pack. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive each indicate that Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow is the favorite.
Speier reports that the Sox have already offered the position to Breslow, although there’s no indication he has yet accepted. Cotillo suggested this evening that the hiring process was gaining steam and the job could be filled imminently.
Breslow, 43, is a Yale graduate who spent 12 seasons in the majors as a reliever. While he spread that across seven organizations, he’s best known for his time with the Sox. The New Haven native pitched 211 innings across five campaigns with Boston, turning in a 1.81 ERA for the 2013 World Series club.
After concluding his playing career in 2018, Breslow signed on with the Cubs as their director of strategic initiatives for baseball operations. He shed that wordy title when he was named director of pitching one season later. The following year, the Cubs bumped him to AGM in Jed Hoyer’s front office, a title he has held for the last three years.
Boston fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom as the season was winding down. They haven’t announced the specific title of the person they’re planning to bring in as head of baseball operations. Since Breslow holds the AGM title, the Red Sox could offer him a bump to general manager — either as the leader of the front office (as seems increasingly likely), or as the second-in-command under a newly minted president of baseball operations.
Cotillo suggests the Sox could still bring in two new front office hires, utilizing the president/GM structure that has become commonplace around the league. They don’t need to make both additions simultaneously. The Tigers, for instance, left the GM role vacant for an entire season to afford incoming president of baseball operations Scott Harris time to choose his top lieutenant.
Even if there’s agreement on a hire in the next few hours, the Red Sox aren’t likely to make a formal announcement tonight. MLB dissuades teams from releasing noteworthy news on the day of postseason games. With two scheduled off days between tonight’s NLCS Game 7 and the first contest of the World Series, it’s possible a hire is finalized tomorrow or Thursday.
Five Mets Elect Free Agency
The Mets announced this afternoon that five players — infielders Jonathan Araúz and Danny Mendick, outfielder Rafael Ortega, catcher Michael Pérez and right-hander Vinny Nittoli — went unclaimed on outright waivers. All five players declared minor league free agency. The Mets had waived that group along with left-hander Anthony Kay, claimed by Oakland, last week.
It’s not surprising to see any of the others go unclaimed. Only Mendick held a spot on the 40-man roster for the entire season. The righty-hitting utilityman had signed a $1MM free agent deal after being non-tendered by the White Sox. He spent the bulk of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Syracuse, where he had a decent .282/.369/.424 batting line. Mendick didn’t produce much in a limited MLB look, hitting .185/.232/.277 in 35 games.
Ortega has the most MLB experience of the group. The lefty-swinging outfielder has appeared for six teams over a seven-season big league run. He topped 100 games with the Cubs in both 2021 and ’22, operating as their starting center fielder and leadoff man for a time. The 32-year-old played most of this past season in Triple-A, hitting .228/.352/.388. He got into 47 games for New York late in the year, running a .219/.341/.272 line over 136 trips.
Pérez has played in nine games for the Mets over the last two seasons. The depth catcher owns a .179/.248/.306 line in 599 career plate appearances between the Rays, Pirates and Mets. Araúz has played parts of four seasons between the Red Sox, Orioles and Mets. The switch-hitting infielder owns a .184/.253/.308 slash in 95 games, including a .136/.203/.288 showing this past season.
Nittoli made three MLB appearances after coming over from the Cubs in a minor trade. He turns 33 next month and has six big league outings between three teams. The Xavier product posted a 4.64 ERA over 42 2/3 innings in Triple-A this year.