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Pierce Johnson

Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL East

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL East. Only three teams in the division have such options, though Atlanta’s group of decisions involve some of the more notable players in the class.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central, AL Central

Atlanta Braves

This is the final guaranteed season of the $35MM extension which Albies signed early in 2019. The deal was widely considered a massively team-friendly contract the day it happened, and that has proven to be the case. Albies has made a pair of All-Star teams, won two Silver Slugger Awards, and twice found his name on MVP ballots over the course of the deal.

There’s no intrigue to this one. The Braves will exercise the option, which ends up being a $3MM investment after factoring in the $4MM buyout. There will be another $7MM club option (with no buyout) for 2027 that will probably be a similarly easy call. Albies’ offense has declined over the past two seasons, as he’s hitting just .246/.300/.398 in 553 plate appearances since the start of 2024. The $3MM difference between the option price and the buyout is low-end utility player money, though. Even if the Braves start to question whether Albies remains the answer at second base, there’d be surplus trade value.

Atlanta signed Arcia to a three-year, $7.3MM extension on the eve of the 2023 season. It looked like an odd move at the time, an unnecessary multi-year commitment for a likely utility infielder. Then Arcia broke out with an All-Star season while replacing Dansby Swanson as Atlanta’s everyday shortstop. The contract looked like a major coup for the front office.

Things have swung back in the opposite direction over the past year-plus. Arcia’s bat cratered last year, as he turned in a .218/.271/.354 line over 602 plate appearances. While the Braves stuck with him as their starting shortstop, he’s lost that role with a dismal start to the ’25 season. Arcia has hit .200 with eight strikeouts, one walk, and one extra-base hit (a double) through 31 trips. Nick Allen jumped him on the depth chart and has started the past five games. Arcia wouldn’t need to do much to convince the Braves to exercise an option that amounts to a $1MM decision, but he’s no longer a lock to even stick on the roster all season.

Johnson dominated over 24 appearances after being acquired from the Rockies at the 2023 deadline. The righty would have been one of the better setup men in the following free agent class, but the Braves signed him to a two-year extension with a $14.25MM guarantee to keep him off the market. He has made consecutive $7MM salaries and has a matching club option with a $250K buyout for next season.

It has worked out nicely. Johnson fired 56 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with a strong 28.4% strikeout rate last year. He has punched out 10 while allowing four runs through 9 1/3 frames to begin this season. His whiffs are slightly down, while opponents are making more hard contact than they did a season ago. Those are worth monitoring, but Johnson’s overall body of work in Atlanta consists of a 2.89 earned run average with 109 strikeouts over 89 1/3 innings. As of now, a $6.75MM price point seems like solid value.

Sale’s first season in Atlanta was brilliant. He posted an MLB-best 2.38 ERA while leading the National League with 225 strikeouts. He won his first career Cy Young award after finishing in the top six on seven occasions earlier in his career. He reestablished himself as an ace following some injury-plagued years. The trade in which he was acquired from the Red Sox for struggling second baseman Vaughn Grissom has been a steal.

The left-hander’s uneven start to 2025 has contributed to the Braves’ mediocre April. Sale has allowed 5.40 earned runs per nine through his first six outings. They’ve gone 3-3 in those contests. It’s largely the product of an inflated .400 batting average on balls in play against him. Sale’s 27.3% strikeout rate is down nearly five percentage points relative to last season, but it remains a well above-average mark for a starting pitcher. He’s getting whiffs on 12.9% of his offerings. His slider has been as lethal as ever. Opponents have feasted on his fastball so far, but there’s no dramatic change in velocity or spin. While the poor start has probably tanked his chance of repeating as the Cy Young winner, the $18MM option still seems like an easy “yes” for the front office.

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

Over the weekend, Raley reportedly agreed to terms with the Mets on a one-year deal with a club option. The signing has not been finalized, nor has the money been reported. Raley is working back from last May’s Tommy John surgery.

The Mets also re-signed Smith on a one-year deal with an option after TJS — a July operation, in his case. He’s making $1MM for what will probably be a completely lost season. The Mets get an affordable $2MM option for next season that they’re likely to exercise so long as Smith doesn’t suffer a setback. If they do pick it up, he could earn another $750K based on his appearance total next season. Smith would make $50K apiece at 30, 35, and 40 appearances; $75K for 45 and 50 games; $100K at 55 and 60 appearances; and $125K each for 65 and 70 games. He owns a 3.48 ERA over parts of six seasons as a quality middle reliever for New York.

Philadelphia Phillies

Alvarado signed for two years and $18.55MM in new money on a deal covering the 2024-25 seasons. He has made $9MM salaries in each of the past two years and has a matching option with a $500K buyout. That’s a little below the market rate for high-leverage relievers, which Alvarado has proven himself to be.

Over parts of five seasons with the Phils, the lefty carries a 3.34 earned run average. Bouts of wildness have led to some inconsistency, but he’s shown the ability to miss bats at plus rates while throwing as hard as any left-hander in the sport. Alvarado’s 24.4% strikeout rate last season was oddly pedestrian, but he’s fanned nearly 30% of batters faced in his career.

He has been back at peak form to begin this season. He has punched out 18 of 56 hitters (32.1%) while allowing only three runs through 13 2/3 innings. Alvarado has collected five saves and a pair of holds without blowing a lead, and he’s operating with career-best control (3.6% walk rate). It’s tough to envision him continuing to throw this many strikes — he walked more than 10% of opponents in seven consecutive years leading up to this one — but he’s the Phils’ most trusted reliever right now. This is tending towards an easy pickup.

Shortly before Opening Day last year, Strahm preemptively signed a one-year extension covering the 2025 season. The lefty is making $7.5MM this year and has a club/vesting option for next season. It begins as a $4.5MM team option. The price would jump by $1MM apiece if he reaches 40, 50 and 60 innings pitched this year. If he hits 60 innings and passes a postseason physical, it vests at $7.5MM. It’s a straight vesting option, not one with an opt-out, so Strahm would return on a guaranteed deal if it triggers.

That’s a result with which the Phillies would probably be happy. Strahm turned in an excellent ’24 campaign, working to a 1.87 ERA while striking out a third of opposing hitters over 66 appearances. He has fanned 15 through his first 11 2/3 frames this year. Strahm has surrendered five runs, four earned, on 11 hits and four walks. His 91.8 MPH average four-seam fastball is down from last season’s 93.4 mark, which is a little alarming, but the results have been solid and he remains one of the more reliable setup options for skipper Rob Thomson.

Washington Nationals

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Braves Reinstate Pierce Johnson, Jackson Stephens Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Stephens has again rejected the outright assignment and opted for free agency, the Braves announced.

MAY 18: The Braves announced that right-hander Pierce Johnson has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list.  Now recovered from some elbow inflammation, Johnson will take the roster spot of Jackson Stephens, who has been outrighted to Triple-A Gwinnett.

Johnson’s initial IL placement was backdated to May 1, so the reliever will end up missing only slightly beyond the 15-day minimum stint.  As noted by MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (X link), Stephens’ status seems to have played a role in Johnson not being immediately reinstated when first eligible, as it gave a bit of extra time for Stephens to pass through waivers.  There hadn’t been any public indication that Stephens had been designated for assignment before today’s outright announcement.

Over his first 12 innings of the 2024 season, Johnson had a 3.00 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, 10 percent walk rate, and a 58.6% grounder rate.  Control has long been Johnson’s chief issue as a big league pitcher, as he carried an 11.5% walk rate across his 137 2/3 innings with three different teams from 2017-22.  That number spiked to a 13.3% in 39 innings with the Rockies last season, and a 6.00 ERA before Johnson’s career was turned around in a deadline trade to Atlanta.  Johnson delivered an exceptional 0.76 ERA as well as a 5.6% walk rate and 36% strikeout rate in 23 2/3 innings for the Braves, immediately cementing his place as a key member of the bullpen mix.  The Braves were impressed enough to offer Johnson a two-year, $14.25MM contract extension to keep him from testing free agency.

Since Stephens is out of minor league options, the Braves have repeatedly cycled him through the DFA/outright process in order to send him to Triple-A.  Stephens has usually elected for free agency in this scenario (as is his right as a player who has previously been outrighted off a 40-man roster) only to re-sign with Atlanta on a new minors contract.  It seems quite likely that history could repeat itself here, if Stephens wants to first test the market out of due diligence if nothing else, before returning to his role as a depth arm in the Braves’ system.

Amidst the constant transactions, Stephens has pitched pretty well since initially joining the Braves in the 2021-22 offseason.  He has a 3.52 ERA across 69 total innings, with 53 2/3 of those frames coming in 2022 since he missed a good chunk of last season due to injuries.

NL East Notes: Luzardo, Ortiz, Johnson, Nationals

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Jesus Luzardo was reinstated from the Marlins’ 15-day injured list today, with right-hander Eli Villalobos optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Luzardo struggled to a 6.58 ERA over his first five starts and 26 innings before a mild left flexor strain (initially diagnosed as elbow tightness) sent him to the IL, so the three-week layoff between starts can hopefully set as a refresh of a tough season to date for the 26-year-old.  The returns of Luzardo and Braxton Garrett this weekend will help the injury-riddled Marlins rotation, though Edward Cabrera has now also gone down with a shoulder impingement.

Beyond the immediate help that Luzardo will bring to Miami’s pitching staff, today’s start figures to reignite the trade rumors that have swirled around the left-hander for months.  If Luzardo recaptures his 2021-22 form, he would be a very hot commodity at the trade deadline, as he is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  The Luis Arraez trade has already signaled that the Marlins are in sell mode, but while the team pulled the trigger early on that deal, Luzardo’s suitors will want to see a larger sample size of healthy and productive starts before moving what would have to be a very substantial trade package to pry him away from Miami.

Some more from around the NL East…

  • Phillies reliever Luis Ortiz is set to restart his throwing program today after he was shut down due to right shoulder inflammation.  “We don’t think it’s anything, but we’re just taking it easy on him,” Phils manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com and other media.  A sprained ankle in his first game of the season sent Ortiz to the 15-day IL back on March 31, and he made Triple-A rehab appearances on both April 23 and 25 before his new shoulder issue popped up.  Ortiz had a 3.32 ERA in 19 relief innings for Philadelphia last season, amidst many shuttles up and down from the majors and Triple-A.
  • Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that Pierce Johnson is “looking really good” as he works his way back from a bout of elbow inflammation.  Johnson was placed on the 15-day IL a week ago, but is already doing some low-intensity mound work, and appears to be on pace to miss only the minimum 15 days.  Johnson has emerged as a key piece of Atlanta’s bullpen after being acquired by the Rockies at the last trade deadline, and the Braves extended the right-hander on a two-year deal worth $14.25MM in guaranteed money back in October to keep Johnson off the free agent market.
  • Nationals fans received positive updates regarding a pair of injured young righties recently. As relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that both Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli threw off a mound in their rehab processes yesterday. Gray hit the shelf with a flexor strain just two starts into his 2024 campaign and reportedly looked good in his 35-pitch bullpen session, throwing 32 of the pitches for strikes. Cavalli, meanwhile, threw 45 pitches in 2 2/3 simulated innings as he works his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Gray appears to be closer to a return to action than Cavalli, who Martinez indicated is on track for a return sometime next month. Washington has relied on left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has posted a strong 2.67 ERA in five starts this season, to round out the club’s rotation in Gray’s absence.

Braves Place Pierce Johnson On 15-Day Injured List

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The Braves placed right-hander Pierce Johnson on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his throwing elbow.  Johnson’s placement is backdated to May 1.  Atlanta also announced that Jackson Stephens’ contract has been selected from Triple-A Gwinnett, and that to create 40-man roster space for Stephens, left-hander Angel Perdomo was moved from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL.

Acquired from the Rockies prior to last season’s trade deadline, Johnson posted an 0.76 ERA over 23 2/3 innings for the remainder of the 2023 season, with a 36% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate to go along with that tiny ERA.  Given those hugely impressive numbers, it isn’t surprising that the Braves moved to extend Johnson before he hit free agency, locking up the righty to a two-year, $14.25MM contract last October before Johnson hit the open market.

Johnson’s numbers haven’t been quite as outstanding in 2024, yet with a 3.00 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, and a 58.6% grounder rate, there’s still plenty to like about his performance.  His walk rate has ticked back up to 10 percent, which is of some concern given how control has sometimes been a struggle for Johnson throughout his seven MLB seasons.

For now, however, the bigger concern is just getting Johnson back onto the field, though there isn’t yet any indication that his elbow problem is anything more than soreness.  Johnson (who turns 33 next week) did miss most of the 2022 season due to forearm tendinitis, so his recent injury history does have a prominent arm-related issue.

The Braves’ deep bullpen should provide enough cover to withstand a relatively short absence for Johnson, but in the meantime, Stephens should receive his first MLB action of the 2024 season.  The right-hander posted a 4.83 ERA for the Reds over 63 1/3 innings in 2018-2019 and a 3.56 ERA for the Braves in 65 2/3 frames in 2022-23, and spent the three seasons in between pitching in the minors, the Mexican League, and sitting out due to the canceled 2020 minor league season.

Stephens is out of minor league options, so he has been a frequent visitor to DFA limbo over the last year as the Braves had to continually designate him for assignment and then outright him in order to remove Stephens from the 40-man roster.  While Stephens has used his right to elect free agency rather than just accept the outright assignments, he has then re-signed with Atlanta on a new contract.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see this scenario play out again if Stephens’ latest stint on the 26-man is relatively short-lived, either due to Johnson’s quick return or if Atlanta cycles another fresh arm into the bullpen and Stephens is against the odd man out.

Perdomo underwent Tommy John surgery last October, so he was already slated to miss the entirety of the 2024 season.  Surgery notwithstanding, the Braves claimed him off waivers from the Pirates last November (ironically, with Stephens getting outrighted as the corresponding move), cut Perdomo prior to the non-tender deadline, and re-signed him to a split contract in December.  Since Perdomo is controlled through the 2028 season, the Braves are making a long-term bet on a reliever who had some pretty solid numbers for Pittsburgh in 2023.

Braves Sign Pierce Johnson To Two-Year Extension

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The Braves signed reliever Pierce Johnson to a two-year, $14.25MM extension, the club announced. (Atlanta is one of the few teams that publicly discloses contract terms.) Johnson, who was a couple weeks from free agency, is set for consecutive $7MM salaries between 2024-25 and is guaranteed a $250K buyout on a $7MM team option for 2026. For luxury tax purposes, the contract’s average annual value is $7.125MM. Johnson is a client of John Boggs & Associates.

Johnson, 33 next May, first joined the Braves in a deadline deal that sent minor league pitchers Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon to the Rockies. It wasn’t an especially high-profile move at the time. The right-hander owned a 6.00 ERA over 38 innings after signing a $5MM free agent deal with Colorado. Johnson had punched out a quality 30.9% of opponents with the Rox, so he wasn’t without upside, but few would’ve anticipated how resoundingly he’d turn his season around.

The Missouri State product tossed 23 2/3 regular season innings for Atlanta, allowing 0.76 earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate jumped more than five percentage points, as he fanned 36% of batters faced. His swinging strike rate spiked from a solid 12.3% to an elite 17.8% mark. He more than halved his walks and doubled his ground-ball percentage. Johnson pitched his way into high-leverage work and added three scoreless appearances in the Division Series.

Leaving Coors Field offers a partial explanation for the improved results, but it’s certainly not the entire story. Johnson has always had promising raw stuff, pairing a 96 MPH fastball with a mid-80s power curve. Upon landing in Atlanta, he dramatically upped the use of the breaking ball. Johnson turned to the hook nearly three quarters of the time as a Brave after deploying it in a near-even division with the fastball while in Denver. Given the results, it’s hard to find fault with that plan of attack.

The question is how much stock to place in two-plus months of dominance amidst an otherwise inconsistent career. Johnson had never shown anything near the level of control he did in Atlanta. He carried a career 12% walk rate in parts of six big league campaigns with the Cubs, Giants, Padres and Rockies before that trade. As a Brave, he handed out free passes to just 5.6% of opponents.

Johnson has flashed solid ability before, albeit never to the level he demonstrated in Atlanta. He turned in a 3.22 ERA over 58 2/3 frames with San Diego three seasons back. His 2022 campaign was derailed by forearm tendinitis that kept him to 15 appearances, setting the stage for his rebound deal with Colorado. Now, he has locked in the strongest guarantee of his career.

It still has the potential to be solid value for the Braves, as Johnson is being paid towards the lower end of the established range for quality setup arms in their mid-30s. Chris Martin secured $17.5MM over two years with the Red Sox last offseason, while Adam Ottavino got an opt-out clause in a $14.5MM deal with the Mets. Ryan Tepera ($14MM) and Joe Kelly ($17MM) landed similar pacts entering their age-34 campaign two years ago.

Atlanta has a solid bullpen, finishing 11th in ERA (3.81) and fifth in strikeout percentage (25.9%). They were set to potentially lose a few pieces from the group, with Joe Jiménez hitting free agency and various option scenarios for Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates and Brad Hand. The club is likely to decline its options on McHugh and Hand, while a net $4.5MM call on Yates is borderline. Re-signing Johnson locks him in alongside A.J. Minter and potentially Nick Anderson or Tyler Matzek as setup options to Raisel Iglesias. Further augmenting the middle relief seems a priority for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his front office.

The Braves are up to roughly $138MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class could tack on roughly $30MM. Roster Resource projects their luxury tax number in the $206MM range (including arbitration estimates), around $30MM below next year’s $237MM base threshold. The organization opened 2023 with a player payroll around $203MM, so there should still be a decent amount of short-term flexibility. In addition to the bullpen, bolstering the starting staff and perhaps upgrading on Eddie Rosario in left field could be offseason goals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Acquire Pierce Johnson

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The Braves announced that they have acquired right-hander Pierce Johnson from the Rockies, sending pitching prospects Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon the other way. Left-hander Lucas Luetge was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Johnson.

Johnson, 32, signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Rockies in the offseason. He was coming off a strong three-year stretch with the Padres wherein he made 102 appearances with a 3.39 earned run average and 32.2% strikeout rate. His 11.3% walk rate was on the high side but it was a good performance overall.

When Daniel Bard opened this year on the injured list, that opened the door for Johnson to take the closer’s role in Denver. Unfortunately, he didn’t have ideal results in that role. He had an ERA of 7.50 in early June when the club removed him from the closer position. He’s fared much better since that time, posting a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings, striking out 36.2% of opponents.

Johnson’s ERA for the year is still high at 6.00 and he’s still issuing walks at a high rate. But he’s had improved results recently and has been able to work around those free passes in the past. Pitching for the Rockies might have played a role in his results as well, as his 16.7% rate of fly balls turning into home runs is far higher than any previous season in his career. Perhaps he’ll be able to put his rough patch from earlier this year behind him, something that the decision makers in Atlanta clearly believe is possible.

Atlanta doesn’t explicitly need bullpen upgrades, as their relievers have a collective 3.50 ERA that’s second only to the Yankees among big league clubs. But with a lead of 11.5 games in the National League East, they’re as close to a lock for the postseason as any club in the majors, making it sensible to seek any and all upgrades for the playoffs.

The right-hander signed with the Padres after a stint in Japan with the Hanshin Tigers. Players coming from overseas leagues generally get language in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the normal service time rules. That’s why Johnson was able to become a free agent this past offseason despite having between three and four years of service time. He’ll finish this year with between four and five years of service but will be ticketed for free agency again at season’s end.

The Rockies have generally been one of the most reluctant clubs when it comes to trading away established big league players at the deadline. In recent years, they’ve given extensions to players like Bard and C.J. Cron at times when outside observers expected them to be dealt. Neither Trevor Story nor Jon Gray were moved as impending free agents, leaving the club to settle for a compensatory draft pick after Story rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, while Gray’s departure left them completely empty-handed.

That seems to have been a symptom of the organization having a belief that their true talent has been stronger than the results, but their 39-60 record has them in last place in the National League this year. With the club now poised to finish below .500 for a fifth straight season, it seems they are opening up to do a bit more selling this time around, with manager Bud Black recently hinting as much. That means Johnson could be the first of many similar moves for the club, who could potentially move players like Cron, Randal Grichuk, Jurickson Profar, Brad Hand and others.

For now, they’ve already added a couple of young arms to their system. Vodnik, 23, was selected by Atlanta in the 14th round of the 2018 draft. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a combined 2.34 ERA in 34 2/3 relief innings. He struck out 31.5% of batters but walked 12.8%. He’s been back in Double-A this year with a 3.10 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate through 40 2/3 innings. He’s currently listed as Atlanta’s #17 prospect at Baseball America.

Gordon, 25, was a sixth-round pick in 2019. He’s been working as a starter in the minors, posting a 4.64 ERA last year, mostly in Double-A. He has a 5.86 ERA this year between Double-A and Triple-A, though a 51.9% strand rate is probably inflating that. He’s struck out 20.5% of opponents while walking just 6.8% and has a 4.25 FIP. Both of these young pitchers will be eligible for selection in the upcoming Rule 5 draft if not added to Colorado’s 40-man roster.

In addition to parting with those prospects, the club is bumping Luetge from the roster. This is the second time he’s been designated for assignment this year, but the first one resulted in the southpaw accepting an outright assignment and getting his contract selected again. He had an awful 10.24 ERA prior to his first DFA but threw two scoreless innings since getting added back to the roster. Nonetheless, he now finds himself in DFA limbo yet again.

Atlanta will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Since he has more than three years of service time, he could reject another outright assignment and elect free agency. But since he has less than five years of service time, doing so would mean forfeiting what remains of his $1.5MM salary for this year. It’s possible that the same sequence of events happens as after his last DFA, with Luetge clearing waivers and accepting an outright to Triple-A. But perhaps someone takes a chance on his past results, as he had an ERA under 2.75 in each of the two previous seasons with the Yankees.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links) reported the details before the official announcement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Black: Rockies Could Be “More Active” On Summer Trade Market

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At 36-58, the Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League and have MLB’s third-worst record overall, leading only the A’s and Royals. While Colorado has developed a reputation for hanging onto potential trade candidates at the deadline instead of moving them at peak value, manager Bud Black said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that the Rox will likely be more active in 2023 (audio link).

“I think there’s probably more potential this year,” Black told Power Alley hosts Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin. “…This year is the year where, possibly, you could see more movement out of us. With the players that we have, and what we have going on in the second half of this year, and going into next year and the years beyond, it could make more sense to be a little bit more active.”

Unfortunately for the Rockies, a number of their would-be trade chips are on the injured list — many with serious injuries. German Marquez won’t pitch again this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has a club option for next season, but that’ll likely be declined, as his recovery will span into next summer. Righty Antonio Senzatela is also set for Tommy John surgery, and lefty Kyle Freeland is on the IL with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder. Lefty reliever Brent Suter is a rental in the midst of a strong season, but he’s been out since late June with an oblique strain.

Others on the roster are sensible trade candidates from a contractual standpoint but aren’t performing well enough to maximize their value. Reliever Pierce Johnson is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is a natural candidate to change teams, but he’s also toting a grim 6.14 ERA and 13.2% walk rate. Daniel Bard, whom the Rockies extended in lieu of a trade last summer, has spent time on the injured list with anxiety issues. He’s seen a three mile per hour drop in velocity and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. C.J. Cron and Jurickson Profar are both free agents at season’s end, but both have played below replacement level in 2023.

The Rox do have a handful of interesting names to peddle. Veterans Randal Grichuk and Brad Hand are both impending free agents at season’s end and could draw interest. Hand was enjoying a strong rebound season before being tagged for seven runs across three recent appearances, sending his ERA ballooning up to 4.99. He’s still an affordable lefty with a 26.1% strikeout rate. If the Rockies aren’t afraid of dealing controllable relievers — particularly a pair who are of the late-blooming variety — both Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird should generate interest.

Catcher Elias Diaz, a first-time All-Star in 2023, is perhaps the team’s most appealing trade candidate, as I explored at greater length last week. Diaz is signed affordably through next season, and it’s unlikely Colorado will be in contention by the time his three-year, $14.5MM deal expires at the end of the 2024 campaign. There’s been no indication the Rockies would entertain offers on third baseman Ryan McMahon — at least not yet — but he’s signed through the 2027 season and is again playing superlative hot corner defense with solid offensive contributions as well (albeit in spite of a career-worst 31% strikeout rate that is an obvious red flag).

There’s sure to be some degree of frustration among Rockies fans to hear these types of comments in 2023 — when the Rockies have their worst roster in years — rather than in recent non-contending seasons. The Rockies, for instance, declined to trade either Trevor Story or Jon Gray when both were in their final seasons of club control. They received a compensatory draft pick when Story declined a qualifying offer but chose not to even make a QO to Gray, losing him with no compensation. GM Bill Schmidt recently suggested to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers.

It was a similar story last summer with Bard, who was in the middle of a dominant season and viewed as one of the top trade candidates on the market. Rather than trade the 37-year-old flamethrower a couple months ahead of him reaching the open market, Colorado inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension that has quickly gone south. The Rockies also held onto Cron at the ’21 deadline and later extended him on a two-year deal that looked good this time last summer. Again, however, they hung onto Cron and, as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.

Time will tell how aggressive the Rockies will be and how much interest the healthy players on their roster will draw. But it’s abundantly clear the team is in need of some changes. Colorado is 19th in the Majors with 411 runs scored and 24th with 89 total home runs. The Rockies rank 13th in MLB with a .253 batting average but are 22nd with a .313 OBP and 18th with a .403 slugging percentage.

The pitching has been even worse. Injuries have surely contributed, but the Rockies’ staff looked highly questionable even coming into the season. To this point, Colorado starters have baseball’s worst combined ERA (6.44), and their bullpen ranks 27th with a 4.81 mark. Colorado pitchers have MLB’s worst strikeout rate (18.3%) and fifth-highest walk rate (9.7%). Their 1.51 HR/9 mark is the worst in baseball as well.

Schmidt: Rockies’ Relievers Drawing Trade Interest

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The Rockies enter deadline season at the bottom of the NL West. They’re positioned to listen to trade offers on veteran players, particularly those whose contracts are expiring at season’s end.

General manager Bill Schmidt discussed the team’s outlook with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post in a piece Rockies’ fans will want to read in full. The baseball operations leader told Saunders the club is getting the most interest in some of its veteran relievers. Schmidt declined to specify which players. However, Saunders reports that left-hander Brent Suter is drawing the most attention, with righty Pierce Johnson and southpaw Brad Hand also generating some interest.

All three players are fairly straightforward trade candidates. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week the Rox were taking offers on their impending free agents. Johnson and Suter are ticketed for free agency. Hand is controllable via $7MM club option, but that price point might be a bit beyond Colorado’s comfort zone. If the Rockies did trade him, that provision would convert to a mutual option.

Suter, claimed off waivers from the Brewers last offseason, is playing this season on a $3MM arbitration salary. The 33-year-old carries an excellent 2.81 ERA across 41 2/3 innings. He’s only striking out 19.2% of batters faced on a modest 8.4% swinging strike percentage. Yet he’s long shown excellent control and an ability to stay off barrels, allowing him to keep his ERA below 4.00 in each of the last four seasons.

His trade candidacy could be complicated by his health with less than a month until the August 1 deadline. Suter is currently on the 15-day injured list after straining his left oblique in late June. It’s unclear how long he’ll be out of action, although Saunders writes that he completed a 20-pitch bullpen session yesterday.

Of course, the Rockies have shown a willingness to operate outside the norm for deadline sellers. Colorado has resisted trading some impending free agents in past seasons when they’ve been well out of contention. Players like C.J. Cron, Elias Díaz and Daniel Bard were signed to multi-year extensions. Trevor Story and Jon Gray walked in free agency, with no compensation in Gray’s case since Colorado declined to make a qualifying offer.

Schmidt suggested the organization would take a similar approach this summer. “We are going to listen on guys, but people have to remember that teams have to want your players, too. … You’re not going to run out a Triple-A team out there — for the integrity of the game,” he told Saunders. “But if there is interest in our players and we think it’s a good decision for our organization, long-term, then we will make considerations.” He said the club would ideally bring back minor league pitching in deadline deals; Colorado’s one move thus far saw them ship out Mike Moustakas for High-A righty Connor Van Scoyoc.

It’s possible the Rockies retain Suter even if he’s healthy enough to draw continued interest at the end of the month. Schmidt implied they could look into an extension, saying he “could see him, going forward in the next year or two, giving us veteran experience in our bullpen.”

The GM also expressed openness to listening on the team’s veteran position players, although Saunders unsurprisingly suggests there’s been less interest in the bulk of that group. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Jurickson Profar are all impending free agents. None has played especially well in 2023. Cron and Grichuk missed notable chunks of time with early-season injuries; Profar has been healthy but stumbled to a .246/.328/.382 line despite playing in the sport’s most hitter-friendly home venue.

Charlie Blackmon is also in the final season of his deal. He has never seemed a particularly plausible trade candidate for myriad reasons. The veteran has full no-trade rights as a career-long Rockie with over 10 years of MLB service. He’s making $15MM this year and is likely to be on the injured list into August after suffering a right hand fracture last month. Demand figures to be minimal, but Schmidt said he’d discuss potential trade scenarios with Blackmon if they arose. The GM noted there’s interest on the club’s part in bringing him back for a 14th season if Blackmon wants to continue playing.

Díaz might be the most interesting Colorado trade candidate on the position player side. Schmidt tells Saunders he’s willing to listen to “legitimate” offers on the first-time All-Star, who’s amidst arguably the best season of his career. The 32-year-old backstop is hitting .279/.331/.442 with nine homers through 296 trips to the dish. He’s making $5.5MM this season and under contract for $6MM next year. Given that extra season of club control, it seems Colorado is prepared to hold to a high asking price on the veteran.

Latest On Rockies’ Deadline Plans

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The Rockies are one of the few teams clearly out of playoff contention a month from the deadline. That positions them as a likely seller, though Colorado has generally been reluctant to deal players in recent summers even as they’ve typically been near the bottom of the standings.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Colorado is expected to be open to offers on most of their impending free agents. However, Heyman indicates the Rox are less interested in parting with Daniel Bard, who is under contract for 2024. That’s not to say they’d categorically refuse to listen on players with multiple years of club control, but it seems the front office prefers to relinquish only shorter-term assets.

That’s no surprise in light of Colorado’s past deadline activity. If the Rox do constrain themselves only to parting with rentals, they could be in for another quiet summer. The Rockies have six impending free agents — they already dealt Mike Moustakas to the Angels last weekend — but the bulk of the group has struggled.

A late-spring roll of the dice on Jurickson Profar hasn’t panned out. The switch-hitting left fielder has just a .231/.315/.372 line with six home runs over 318 plate appearances. His strikeout and walk numbers are solid, but Profar hasn’t hit for power and has rated as a well below-average defender. He’s playing this season on a $7.75MM salary and is unlikely to have much trade appeal.

That’s also true of reliever Pierce Johnson, who signed for $5MM over the winter. The right-hander carries a 6.19 ERA across 32 innings, struggles that pushed him out of the closing role a few weeks ago. Johnson has struck out an excellent 31.8% of opposing hitters while sitting north of 96 MPH on his heater, so perhaps another team could view him as an upside flier in the middle innings. Johnson’s poor ERA and bloated 13.2% walk percentage mean he’s unlikely to bring back much of note, though.

Outfielder Randal Grichuk and first baseman C.J. Cron are veteran stopgap bats. Grichuk has a .294/.357/.429 line with two homers over 196 plate appearances — league average offense after adjusting for Coors Field, as measured by wRC+. He’s capable of covering all three outfield spots but better suited for a corner. Cron lost a good chunk of the season to back spasms, returning a few days ago. The right-handed hitter has managed only a .231/.277/.420 line in 38 games this year. Cron came up just short of 30 homers in both 2021 and ’22, but he’s had a tough first few months.

The other two impending free agents, Charlie Blackmon and Brent Suter, are currently on the injured list. Blackmon has full no-trade rights and is making $15MM. He’s very unlikely to move. Suter, claimed off waivers last winter, has a 2.81 ERA across 41 2/3 innings of relief. The control specialist could draw some attention if healthy, but he just landed on the IL with a strained left oblique.

Colorado’s top realistic trade candidate might be another left-handed bullpen arm, Brad Hand. Signed to a $3MM free agent deal, the three-time All-Star has a 3.62 ERA over 27 1/3 frames. Hand has an above-average 28.1% strikeout rate despite a modest 9.5% swinging strike percentage.

Hand isn’t a true rental, as his contract contains a $7MM team option for next season. Heyman suggests the Rockies are likely to gauge the market on Hand, though. That’s not too surprising, since that option price is probably a bit beyond the veteran’s market value. If he’s traded, the option would convert to a mutual provision.

None of the Rockies’ impending free agents would bring back a significant prospect return. That’s probably also true of Bard, even though the veteran has a sterling 2.05 ERA across 26 1/3 innings. Bard opened the season on the injured list due to anxiety issues that have affected him at times throughout his career.

He has been on the active roster since mid-April but struggled to find the strike zone consistently. Bard has walked just under 20% of opponents, nearly double last season’s rate. At age 38 and due a $9.5MM salary next year, the right-hander would be a risky target for contenders even if the Rockies put him on the market.

Rockies Remove Pierce Johnson From Closer Role

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The Rockies will no longer use right-hander Pierce Johnson as the closer, manager Bud Black told the team’s beat (relayed by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). Black didn’t declare a definitive replacement but pointed to Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird as candidates to step into the role.

Johnson signed a one-year, $5MM free agent deal with his hometown club last offseason. It was a roll of the dice from the Colorado front office considering he’d been limited by injury to 14 1/3 innings during his final season as a Padre. Johnson has been healthy in 2023 but hasn’t performed at the level the organization had envisioned.

Over 24 innings, the veteran hurler has been tagged for a 7.50 ERA. He hasn’t had any trouble missing bats, as he’s punching out 27.7% of opponents while picking up swinging strikes at a solid 11.9% clip. Yet his control has been far too inconsistent. Johnson has walked over 14% of batters faced. He’s also surrendered plenty of loud contact, and while it’s unlikely that nearly 40% of balls in play will continue to fall for hits, the combination of free passes and barrels has led to disappointing results.

Johnson’s raw save rate (11 of 13) isn’t bad. Each of his blown saves have come in his last two opportunities, though. A three-run ninth inning to turn a 4-3 lead into a 6-4 loss to the Giants yesterday will lead the club in another direction. Johnson could still play an important role in the Colorado bullpen, but it’ll come in middle to late innings work for the moment.

Lawrence and Bird have each performed much better through the season’s first couple months. The former carries a 3.41 ERA across 34 1/3 innings. A lower-slot righty, Lawrence presents a particularly tough look for same-handed hitters. He’s striking out almost 27% of opponents and generating grounders on over half the batted balls he allows. Lawrence has had scattershot control in years past, but this season’s 9.4% walk rate is tolerable.

Bird, 27, leads Colorado relievers with 41 1/3 innings pitched. He’s sitting on a 3.05 ERA and, like Lawrence, is keeping the ball on the ground at a high level. While a modest 9% swinging strike rate might make it hard for him to continue punching out a quarter of opposing hitters, that shouldn’t be an issue so long as he’s picking up grounders at a near-57% clip.

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