Ben Nicholson-Smith | MLB Trade Rumors

Marlins Designate Elih Villanueva For Assignment

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 5, 2012 at 12:58pm CDT

The Marlins designated right-hander Elih Villanueva for assignment to create 40-man roster space for Greg Dobbs, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. The Marlins, who finalized their deal with Dobbs earlier today, still have a full 40-man roster.

Villanueva, 25, started one game for the Marlins last year, allowing eight earned runs in three innings. He spent most of the season at Triple-A New Orleans, where he posted a 5.35 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 165 innings. The Marlins selected Villanueva in the 27th round of the 2008 draft.

Marlins To Sign Greg Dobbs

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 5, 2012 at 12:05pm CDT

The Marlins have agreed to sign utility player Greg Dobbs to a two-year deal, the team announced. The deal is worth $3MM ($1.5MM per season), tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Beverly Hills Sports Council represents Dobbs, who had become a priority for the Marlins by last week.

Dobbs posted a .275/.311/.389 line in 439 plate appearances for the Marlins last year, playing all four corner positions. The 33-year-old has generally been a bench player in eight MLB seasons and owns a .259/.316/.430 in 316 career plate appearances as a pinch hitter. Dobbs, a left-handed hitter, has had more success against right-handers (.725 OPS) than left-handers (.556 OPS) in his career and his managers have sheltered him from southpaws (118 career plate appearances vs. LHP).

Dobbs signed a minor league deal with the Marlins before the 2011 season. He obtained a two-year offer from the team in September, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald first reported the deal (on Twitter).

Angels Unlikely To Sign Ryan Madson

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 5, 2012 at 11:10am CDT

Angels GM Jerry Dipoto told Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that he’s "very, very unlikely" to sign Ryan Madson or another closer. Despite rumors and speculation linking Los Angeles to Madson, Dipoto says the club has already made its most significant offseason additions.

"We're trying to add depth, and in a perfect world, we’d like to find another guy to join Jordan Walden, Scott Downs and LaTroy Hawkins to help with those last nine outs,” he said. “But closer has never been the real priority."

Madson posted a 2.37 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 48.8% ground ball rate in 60 2/3 innings for the Phillies in 2011. The 31-year-old saved 32 games in his first full season as a closer. Last week 32% of 13,000 MLBTR readers said they expect Madson to sign with the Angels. The Reds were the runner-up with 18% of the vote.

Olney On Fielder, Zambrano, Rays, Garza

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 5, 2012 at 10:28am CDT

There’s been lots of buzz about a possible deal between Prince Fielder and the Nationals this week, so ESPN.com’s Buster Olney asked some talent evaluators about the impact the free agent first baseman would have in Washington. One evaluator says adding Fielder would make the Nationals “an immediate threat in the NL East” and another guesses Fielder would boost the organization's revenues. Here are the rest of Olney’s rumors, starting in the NL East:

Some Marlins people aren’t convinced Carlos Zambrano’s stuff is good enough for him to be a frontline pitcher again, Olney writes. However, the Miami front office believes he’s worth the risk at $2.5MM.
Olney wonders if the Rays have interest in Daniel Murphy of the Mets. The Rays need a first baseman and the 26-year-old posted a .320/.362/.448 line in 423 plate appearances last year while playing first, second, third and left field.
Many talent evaluators consider Matt Garza a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which may contribute to the gap between the Cubs’ asking price and what rival teams have been offering in trade talks, Olney writes.

Checking In On The First Base Market

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 5, 2012 at 9:24am CDT

Prince Fielder news and rumors will likely dominate the coming month at MLBTR, but only one team can sign the powerful 27-year-old. A number of other clubs will look to add second-tier first basemen, so it’s time to look beyond the highest profile free agent to some alternatives at first base and their potential suitors.

As MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker shows, Casey Kotchman, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena are still available. Luke Scott and Jorge Posada could be options at first, though they've spent most of their respective careers at other positions. A number of backup types also remain unsigned. First base prospect Anthony Rizzo’s name is frequently floated in trade rumors and the Angels have a surplus of players at the position. Here’s a look at some teams that could still have interest in first basemen not named Fielder:

Rays – The Rays have had a clear need for a first baseman since Kotchman hit free agency after the season. They could hunt for bargains, but Kotchman's .306/.378/.422 line won't be easy to duplicate.
Blue Jays – Adam Lind hasn't posted an on-base percentage above .300 since his breakout 2009 season. Edwin Encarnacion provides the Blue Jays with depth and a threat against left-handed pitching.
Indians – Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana figure to get most of the playing time at first base, but at some point the 26-year-old LaPorta may run out of chances (.238/.304/.397 line as a Major Leaguer).
Mariners – Like LaPorta, Justin Smoak joined his team in a midseason trade for a dominant left-handed starter. Smoak has a similarly unimpressive .227/.316/.385 line as a Major Leaguer, but he showed signs of promise toward the beginning of the 2011 campaign.
Rangers – The Rangers say Mitch Moreland is their first baseman, despite his struggles against left-handed pitching.
Athletics – Brandon Allen, Daric Barton, Kila Ka'aihue and Chris Carter are all options for the Athletics heading into 2012, but it would be an exaggeration to say they have an established first baseman.
Nationals – Adam LaRoche figures to start at first unless the Nationals sign Fielder.
Brewers – Mat Gamel hits minor league pitching (28 homers and a .310/.372/.540 line last year) and he may get his chance to stick in the big leagues in 2012.
Cubs – Bryan LaHair posted a .331/.405/.664 line with 38 home runs at Triple-A in 2011. Theo Epstein sounds optimistic about the 29-year-old's ability to hit at the MLB level.
Pirates – If the season opened today, Casey McGehee and Garrett Jones would likely be the Pirates' primary options at first.
Astros – Like LaPorta and Smoak, Brett Wallace is a former top prospect who hasn't hit MLB pitching to this point in his career (.248/.323/.354 career line).

Seth Smith Continues Drawing Interest

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 5, 2012 at 7:55am CDT

Rockies outfielder Seth Smith remains a coveted trade chip, though the Braves’ interest in him has cooled, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported yesterday. The Rockies would like to trade Smith for a back-of-the-rotation starter or a second baseman, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes.

The Rays are not in the hunt for Smith, though the Rockies covet Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann, Renck reported. The Athletics and Mariners have interest in Smith, according to Rosenthal, who reported along with Jon Paul Morosi last month that the Mets have expressed interest as well. Rosenthal now adds the Indians and Red Sox to the list of teams that have shown at least some interest in Smith.

Smith, a left-handed hitter, posted a .284/.347/.483 line with 15 homers in 533 plate appearances this past season, playing left and right field. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz estimates a 2012 salary of $2.6MM for the 29-year-old via the arbitration process. He’ll remain under team control through 2014.

Dodgers, Mike MacDougal Nearing Deal

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 5, 2012 at 6:50am CDT

The Dodgers are nearing a one-year, $1MM deal with free agent reliever Mike MacDougal, according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. Hendricks Sports represents the 34-year-old right-hander.

MacDougal spent the 2011 season with the Dodgers and posted a 2.05 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 60.9% ground ball rate in 57 innings. He ranked tenth among MLB pitchers in ground ball rate last year (minimum 50 innings). The 11-year veteran has a career ERA of 3.94 with 7.4 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9.

Quick Hits: Fielder, Vazquez, Trumbo, Rockies

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 4, 2012 at 11:45pm CDT

Links for Thursday night, starting with a pair of notes on the offseason's top remaining free agent…

The Nationals appear to be a leading suitor for Prince Fielder, but first baseman Adam LaRoche told MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that he won’t hold grudges if he’s not a part of Washington’s plans for 2012. “Hopefully, I'll be a part of it. If not, that's life," he said.
If the Mariners are serious about making Fielder a competitive offer without hamstringing the organization, they could propose a backloaded seven-year, $155MM deal that includes an opt-out after three years, Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner explains.
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick suggests the Marlins are convinced Javier Vazquez is retiring (Twitter link). Miami rounded out its rotation today, obtaining the unpredictable Carlos Zambrano for Chris Volstad.
Angels infielder Mark Trumbo says the stress fracture in his right foot is taking longer than expected to heal and that his rehabilitation will likely extend to late February, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times.
The Braves’ interest in Rockies outfielder Seth Smith has cooled, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. The Rays, who had interest in Smith earlier in the offseason, are not in the hunt any longer, Renck writes.
The Rockies aren’t actively pursuing Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens, though they continue to monitor the market for starting pitching, according to Renck.
The Mets continue to look for a shortstop to back up Ruben Tejada, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. They brought Omar Quintanilla in on a minor league deal this week, but the move doesn’t necessarily eliminate the need for shortstop depth. Jack Wilson and Ryan Theriot have been linked to the Mets this offseason.

Reds Have Some Interest In Ross, Ankiel, Ludwick

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 4, 2012 at 11:05pm CDT

The Reds are looking for depth in left field, and though they maintain some interest in Cody Ross, they haven’t had discussions about Johnny Damon, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. GM Walt Jocketty acknowledged interest in Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The agent for Kosuke Fukudome called the team as well.

Left fielder Chris Heisey hit 18 homers and posted a .797 OPS in 2011, but the Reds have just four outfielders on their 40-man roster and will likely add depth before Opening Day. They traded outfield options Yonder Alonso and Dave Sappelt in recent deals for pitching.

The Mets and Nationals have been linked to Ankiel this offseason, while the Athletics and Giants have been linked to Ludwick. This is the first we’ve heard of Fukudome since the regular season ended.

Extension Candidate: Cameron Maybin

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 4, 2012 at 10:25pm CDT

Arbitration rewards sluggers, closers and above-average starters. Fleet-footed center fielders with modest power? Not so much. That’s why Cameron Maybin is a candidate for a modest extension with the Padres, even after a breakout season. The Padres will likely resume extension talks with the 24-year-old before long, so it’s a good time to look ahead to a possible long-term deal.

After the 2011 season, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz empirically showed what teams and agents have known for some time: the one skill that really gets position players paid is power. Batting average and stolen bases “pale in importance to almighty home runs and RBI,” Swartz wrote. What’s more, position does not seem to matter much either.

This is bad news for Maybin, a strong defensive center fielder who doesn’t hit for much power and calls Petco Park home. The 2005 first rounder will be undervalued through the arbitration process despite his contributions on offense and defense.

Maybin posted a .264/.323./393 line in 2011 for a respectable 103 OPS+ and he plays better-than-average defense in center field, according to UZR/150 (+11.6 in ’11, +8.0 career). Though Maybin is an above-average player according to wins above replacement, the arbitration process won't recognize his defense, which will limit his leverage in extension talks.

Powerful outfielders such as Jay Bruce, Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez all signed extensions worth at least $50MM at similar stages in their careers, but Maybin’s not in line for that kind of deal, since he hasn't showed similar power in parts of five MLB seasons. His representatives may instead be looking to recent contracts for Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Tabata and Denard Span as points of reference.

Gutierrez, Tabata and Span, comparable offensive players to Maybin who also have experience in center field, all signed deals that bought out their three arbitration years and include options for free agent seasons. Maybin currently has more service time than Span and Tabata had when they signed and less service time than Gutierrez had when he signed, but their deals provide a possible framework for the Padres and Baratta Partners.

Span, Tabata and Gutierrez all signed deals that include club options and the Padres would presumably push for at least one option year if they extend their center fielder. A five-year deal along the lines of Gutierrez’s contract would guarantee Maybin more than $20MM. One possible scenario: $500K for 2012, his final pre-arbitration season, $2.5MM, $4MM and $6MM for his three arbitration seasons, $8MM for his first free agent year and an $8MM club option with a $500K buyout for a second free agent season.

If the sides discuss an extension, as expected, they could explore any number of scenarios, but a five-year deal in the $21-22MM could work for both sides in my opinion. Maybin would get the security of a long-term deal and the Padres would extend their control over a player who’s more valuable than the arbitration process would indicate.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

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