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Heyman On Jeter, Ortiz, Minaya

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It’s a foregone conclusion that the Yankees will re-sign Derek Jeter, but as Jon Heyman of SI.com points out, “the Yankees' business is so good it doesn't have to look at things the normal way.” That means the Bronx Bombers can afford to pay franchise icons like Jeter for past greatness, even if the offensive numbers aren't there anymore. Here’s the latest on Jeter, plus other notes from around the league:

  • One executive told Heyman that he can see the Yankees offering $45-50MM over three years. That fits in with what MLBTR readers predicted earlier in the week. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted, Chipper Jones’ most recent deal was for $42MM over three years.
  • Some executives can see the Red Sox trying to lock David Ortiz up for $18-20MM or so over two years instead of exercising his $12.5MM option for 2011. Ortiz has said he’d like to stay in Boston, but he wants a multi-year deal.
  • Heyman says it’s still “extremely likely” that the Mets re-assign Omar Minaya. In other words, he may not be the GM for much longer.

 

The Pirates’ 2011 Rotation

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Many of the Pirates' most exciting pitchers are still in the minor leagues, so the team's 2011 rotation does not project to be strong, relative to the rest of the league. Within a few years, Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris, Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia could join Brad Lincoln in a potentially loaded rotation, but that isn't about to happen immediately.

For now, the Pirates have a less electrifying group, including non-tender candidate Zach Duke, the struggling Paul Maholm and a number of organizational arms that probably won't have major roles on the next great Pirates team. But it's not yet time to look too far ahead: here's how Pittsburgh's 2011 rotation will look.

Zach Duke has been a mainstay in the team's rotation for years, but he has posted a 5.24 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 heading into his final season of arbitration. He earns $4.3MM this year and could make $5MM or so in 2011, so Duke is a non-tender candidate. The lefty has been unlucky, so Pittsburgh could keep him around and hope for a rebound season.

Paul Maholm has a 5.43 ERA with 4.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 and would be another non-tender candidate were it not for the extension he signed in 2009. Mahom will earn $5.75MM next year and will likely start for the Pirates.

Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf, two products of the 2008 deal that sent Xavier Nady to the Bronx, are both injured, but both have turned in respectable seasons. Karstens has a 4.88 ERA in 19 starts with just 2.0 BB/9 and Ohlendorf had a 4.07 ERA before hitting the disabled list with a shoulder strain. Karstens will go to arbitration and Ohlendorf, a possible super two, may qualify as well. Both will definitely be cheap in 2011 and will presumably have the chance to make the team's rotation.

Brad Lincoln and James McDonald have both had up and down seasons. The Pirates let Lincoln start the year in the minors, where he pitched to a 4.12 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. He struggled to match that production in the majors and may stay in the 'pen for the remainder of the month. Lincoln has the upside of a number 2-3 starter, according to Baseball America, but the Pirates have been cautious with the right-hander so far, so they're probably not going to rush him into the major league rotation next spring.

McDonald has pitched inconsistently since the Pirates acquired him for Octavio Dotel, mixing three dominant starts with as many duds. He's striking out lots of hitters (8.7 K/9) and has a 4.17 ERA as a Pirate, but the 25-year-old will likely have to earn a rotation spot out of spring training if he is to start.

Charlie Morton, Brian Burres, minor leaguer Michael Crotta and Daniel McCutchen (yet another product of the apparently successful Nady deal) provide the Pirates with depth arms, but limited upside. Donnie Veal would have been in this group, too, but the left-hander recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss most of 2011.

The Pirates have every reason to look forward to recent additions Taillon, Allie and Heredia, but Allie is the oldest of the three and he's just 19. Owens, Locke and Morris all reached AA Altoona this year and posted excellent overall numbers. They're closer to major league success than, say, Heredia, but it's far too soon to expect them in the major league rotation.

Instead, the Pirates will probably call on Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf, Karstens, McDonald and others next year. GM Neal Huntington will, in all likelihood, pass on Cliff Lee and other elite pitchers and look into signing a dependable free agent arm. Club president Frank Coonelly is frustrated by the current edition of the Pirates and the team doesn't have many guarantees for next year. If a reliable pitcher like Dave Bush, Jake Westbrook or Kevin Millwood became available at the right price, the Pirates could bolster their rotation depth through free agency.

Geovany Soto: Extension Candidate

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Geovany Soto is having a fantastic offensive season and, as Joe Mauer, Kurt Suzuki, Chris Iannetta and many others will tell you, catchers who can hit are sometimes offered extensions once they qualify for arbitration. Soto will head to arbitration for the first time this winter and barring a September slide, he'll be coming off a big season.

The 27-year-old ranks among the top five catchers in baseball when it comes to batting average, on base percentage and home runs. He has hit well before, but even when he won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2008 his batting line wasn't as high as it is now (.284/.399/.521).

The Cubs may prefer to go one year at a time with Soto, but they could opt for cost certainty and lock their catcher up. As the table below shows, both Soto's rate stats and his cumulative stats fall between the numbers Brian McCann and Chris Iannetta had going into their first arbitration season.

Soto
Both McCann and Iannetta signed extensions covering their arbitration years, so they are reasonable comparables for Soto. McCann ($15.5MM) earns more than Iannetta ($7.85MM) for his three seasons of arbitration eligibility and it seems likely that Soto will earn somewhere in between if the Cubs lock him up. McCann signed his deal early in his career, when he had less leverage, so it seems likely that Soto could command nearly as much for his three arbitration seasons as McCann got for his, especially given Soto's massive 2010 numbers. Perhaps the Cubs could buy Soto's 2011-13 seasons for $14MM or so.

Jonny Gomes’ 2011 Option

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Jonny Gomes has already set career highs in games (126), plate appearances (482), runs (63), hits (112), doubles (22) and RBI (77). Reds manager Dusty Baker has been calling on Gomes more than ever and the left fielder has seen his slash line dip, possibly because he's facing more right-handed pitching than usual. Gomes' .262/.328/.436 line is about average, but his power has dropped off this year, especially in the second half.

The Reds can retain him for $1.75MM in 2011 or buy him out for $200K. They don't have the option of turning the option down and trying to re-sign him more cheaply through arbitration; Cincinnati must release the 29-year-old if they turn his option down. The Reds could sign Gomes after releasing him, but all 30 teams would be able to make bids, too.

Despite Gomes' struggles against right-handed pitching and less-than-brilliant defense (he posted negative UZRs every year from 2005-10), the Reds will likely have some interest in retaining him for a net cost of $1.55MM. However, they non-tendered him last winter after a season in which he hit 20 homers and posted an .879 OPS, so history suggests they aren't afraid of letting Gomes hit the open market. What do you think the Reds will do? Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Red Sox Offer Martinez Two-Year Deal

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Victor Martinez told Rob Bradford of WEEI that the Red Sox offered him a two-year extension. The sides had talked about a similar contract, but the offer surprised the Boston catcher, who would prefer a longer-term deal.

“I don’t really have to do it,” Martinez said. “They came with something, and that might just be where the negotiations start. But I don’t see myself signing a two-year deal. I’m young enough. I work hard and I give it all. I just want to be treated fair.”

Martinez, 31, says he wants to play for five or six more years and sees himself as a catcher, rather than a first baseman or designated hitter. He prefers catching, but Martinez says his top priority will be to join a club that can compete for a World Series title.

Many teams will likely have interest in Martinez if he hits the open market, since he will arguably be the best offensive catcher available. So far in 2010, he has 14 homers and a .292/.339/.466 batting line. His .804 OPS beats potential free agent catchers A.J. Pierzynski, John Buck and Rod Barajas.

Martinez currently projects as a Type A free agent, which means the Red Sox would obtain two top picks if the catcher turns down arbitration to sign elsewhere. V-Mart says he wants to sign long term, so he'd surely turn arbitration down, but that would leave the Red Sox without a catcher. Jason Varitek, also a free agent after the season, plans to continue playing, but it would be a surprise to see Boston hand the veteran a starting job.

Angels Release Robb Quinlan

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The Angels released Robb Quinlan, according to MLB.com’s Evan Drellich. Quinlan, 33, spent part of eight seasons with the Angels as a utility player, though he batted just 36 times in the big leagues this year. He spent most of the season at Triple A, where he posted a .258/.336/.305 line in 144 plate appearances.

Quinlan drew interest from the Twins, Rockies and Dodgers last winter, before signing with the Angels in February. As usual, he played all four corner positions in 2010. Earlier today, the Angels released another veteran role player, Brian Stokes.

Odds & Ends: Kuroda, Dunn, Wang, Sabathia, Choo

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Links for Tuesday, exactly one year after the Rockies released Russ Ortiz. It was the third time a major league organization released Ortiz in 2009 and a preview of April 2010 when the Dodgers released him. Here are today's links…

  • Hiroki Kuroda denied to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he intends to play in Japan next season. "I really haven't decided anything," the right-hander said (Twitter links)
  • MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that there has been no progress on a contract extension for Adam Dunn. The first baseman told reporters recently that he "assumes" he will finish the year without a deal in place.
  • Within the same piece, Ladson mentions that Chien-Ming Wang will not pitch this year because of shoulder weakness. The Nationals signed Wang to a one year deal worth $2MM last winter and control him as an arbitration eligible player next year.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Jack Curry of the YES Network that C.C. Sabathia has done "exactly what they hoped for" when they signed him last offseason, and that includes his presence in the clubhouse (Twitter links).
  • Shin-Soo Choo will likely be able to avoid military service in South Korea if he helps his country win a gold medal in baseball at the Asian Games this November, as MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince explains.
  • Agent Scott Boras told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer that Choo may sign an extension with the Indians this offseason. "Things have a way of working out with the good players," Boras said.
  • Baseball America named Jeremy Hellickson its 2010 minor league player of the year.
  • It's looking like the Marlins will sign Ricky Nolasco to a one year deal through arbitration, instead of negotiating a long-term deal, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
  • Arizona president Derrick Hall likes former Padres GM Kevin Towers and interim D'Backs manager Kirk Gibson, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. The D'Backs haven't had a permanent GM or manager since firing Josh Byrnes and A.J. Hinch earlier in the summer.

Nationals Designate Carlos Maldonado

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The Nationals designated catcher Carlos Maldonado for assignment today, according to the team. Yunesky Maya, Joe Bisenius, and Ross Detwiler join the Nationals in related moves. 

Catchers Ivan Rodriguez, Wilson Ramos and Wil Nieves are all on the Nationals roster, so Maldonado batted just 12 times in the majors. In 228 minor league plate appearances this year, the 31-year-old hit .223/.293/.310, so he adds little to no offensive value. However, Maldonado has thrown out 30% of potential base stealers in his 15-year minor league career.

The Rangers’ 2011 Rotation

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The Rangers have said they would like to re-sign Cliff Lee after the season and who can blame them? Even though Lee has posted a 4.69 ERA and dealt with a sore back since the Mariners traded him to Texas, he can still be dominant. He has issued just four unintentional walks with the Rangers and struck out 72, so the former Cy Young Award winner is doing something right, in spite of the higher-than-expected ERA.

But lots of teams will want Lee, who figures to be the most highly-coveted free agent starter this offseason. Under new, stable ownership the Rangers have shown signs that they are intent on winning now and are willing to spend. The club traded prospects away to make midseason acquisitions and claimed Manny Ramirez despite his substantial salary.

The Rangers' aggressiveness suggests we shouldn’t count them out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but even if they lose their ace to free agency, the Rangers will have four capable starters.

Tommy Hunter, Colby Lewis, C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland were not sure things earlier in the season, but all have built strong cases to remain in next year’s rotation. Hunter had appeared in just 22 major league games going into 2010, but he has since posted a 3.99 ERA and has only allowed 2.5 BB/9. Like many current AL West starters, the 24-year-old has handled major league bats early on in his career.

It took a while for Lewis to figure big league hitters out, but he has become a resounding success for GM Jon Daniels since returning from Japan. So far in 2010, Lewis has a 3.96 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.

Wilson, a converted reliever, has also become a staple in Ron Washington’s rotation this year. The 29-year-old had not started a major league game since 2005 when the Rangers added him to their rotation this spring, but he has responded well. He leads the American League in walks, but has a 3.10 ERA and 7.4 K/9.

Derek Holland, who recently replaced Rich Harden in the rotation, strung together 11 dominant starts in Triple A before joining the big league club. He has a 4.93 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in the majors, and the lefty’s still just 23.

The Rangers and Harden have an $11MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout for 2011 and it seems probable that the team will choose to buy the right-hander out. Harden, now in the ‘pen, has walked 6.0 per nine and has a 5.36 ERA. Even if Harden and Lee depart, the Rangers have an assortment of starters to consider if they choose to fill their fifth rotation spot internally:

  • Scott Feldman, a 17-game winner a year ago, has a 5.43 ERA and is now on the disabled list.
  • Matt Harrison, a 25-year-old lefty with a 3.93 ERA already has extensive experience as a starter.
  • Omar Beltre, also on the DL, had a 2.65 ERA in the minors this year, though he struggled in a pair of major league starts.
  • Michael Kirkman, who has been excellent out of the Rangers’ pen recently, posted a 3.09 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9. Before the season, Baseball America suggested the left-hander could become a workhorse starter in a major league rotation.
  • Brandon McCarthy missed significant time with a shoulder injury this year, but pitched well in Triple A. He makes $1.3MM now, so he won’t come cheap if the Rangers tender him a contract in 2011.
  • Neftali Feliz has value out of the bullpen and will be even more important in the late innings if Frank Francisco leaves via free agency. Still, Feliz has the stuff to be a number one starter.
  • Other starting pitching prospects, like Martin Perez, Joseph Wieland and Neil Ramirez, are further away from contributing to the big league rotation.

Bringing Lee back would keep things simple. The Rangers then trot him out on Opening Day 2011 and follow him with Wilson, Lewis, Hunter and, if he earns the spot in Spring Training, Holland. The Rangers have options even if they don’t sign Lee, but retaining the lefty would give them an ace atop the rotation.

Angels Release Brian Stokes

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The Angels released right-hander Brian Stokes, according to the MLB.com transactions page. The Halos acquired Stokes last winter when they sent Gary Matthews Jr. to New York in a trade that didn't help either team. The center fielder struggled in New York and the Mets released Matthews in June.

Stokes, who turns 31 today, posted an 8.10 ERA in 16.2 innings for the Angels with as many walks as strikeouts (16). He was more effective in 14 minor league outings this year, posting a 4.08 ERA with more than twice as many strikeouts as walks. 

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