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The Angels’ 2011 Rotation

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The Angels won’t have to look outside the organization for pitching this winter, since they have six major league starters under team control for 2011 plus an assortment of minor league arms. If the group stays healthy, the Angels could have one of the league’s better rotations next year.

That’s especially true if Scott Kazmir can recapture the form that made him one of the league’s most exciting starters just a couple years ago. He’s just 26, so we shouldn’t rule out a mid-career renaissance for the left-hander. Still, Kazmir’s walk rate remains high (4.9 BB/9) and his strikeout rate has dropped for the third consecutive season and now sits at 5.6 K/9. That’s not too far below the league average, but Kazmir struck out 10.4 batters per nine just a few seasons ago as a 23-year-old. The Angels don’t need Kazmir to strike out more than a batter per inning again, but they do need him to lower his 6.19 ERA.

Kazmir is something of a variable, but the Angels have four more predictable starters. Jered Weaver has been one of the league’s best pitchers this year. The 27-year-old has set himself up for a big raise through arbitration after posting a 3.14 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Ervin Santana has put together another strong season (4.02 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 186 innings) and he’ll be back in 2011. Joel Pineiro is now recovering from a left oblique strain on the disabled list, but he was effective in 20 starts before getting hurt, posting a 4.18 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. 

Dan Haren hasn’t had any trouble adjusting back to the American League since the Angels traded for him in July. He has a 3.39 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in L.A. and he doesn’t turn 30 until next week, so like the rest of the Angels rotation, he’s still in his prime.

If Kazmir falters or someone gets hurt, manager Mike Scioscia will be able to call on Trevor Bell. The rookie right-hander is in the Angels rotation now and has pitched well so far. His season ERA sits at 4.85, but his strikeout (6.6 K/9) and walk (2.9 BB/9) rates are respectable. The former first rounder has always shown excellent command in the minors and Baseball America suggested before the season that Bell could become a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Other Angels prospects are further away from contributing in the major leagues. Trevor Reckling, a 21-year-old left-hander, and Fernando Rodriguez, a 26-year-old right-hander, have struggled with command at Triple A this year. Reckling could become a mid-rotation starter, according to Baseball America, but he isn’t there yet. Tyler Chatwood pitched at three levels this year and the 20-year-old posted a 2.84 ERA with improved command. It was a promising season for the right-hander, but he still only has 13 games of experience above A ball.

The combination of Weaver, Haren, Santana, Pineiro, Kazmir and Bell should give the Angels a strong rotation next year. That depends on health, of course, but for the time being, GM Tony Reagins can focus on other needs since the Angels' 2011 rotation seems capable of keeping the club in contention.

Red Sox Prepared To Pick Up Ortiz’s Option

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David Ortiz hasn’t heard from the Red Sox about an extension, but the team is prepared to pick up the slugger’s 2011 option, a source told Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. Ortiz has said all year that he wants to return to Boston and would like an extension; so far, the Red Sox have not given Big Papi any indication that they’re going to offer a multi-year deal.

The Red Sox can bring the 34-year-old back for $12.5MM by exercising his 2011 option. They’ll surely be tempted to retain Ortiz for another season, since he has 28 homers and .262/.365/.528 line despite another awful start.

Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko are just a few of the first base/DH types that will surface in this offseason’s free agent class. The Red Sox would have alternatives if they turn down Ortiz’s option, but they seem ready to spend $12.5MM to keep Big Papi around. 

Pirates To Designate Iwamura & Kratz

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The Pirates will designate Akinori Iwamura and Erik Kratz for assignment tomorrow, the team announced this afternoon. In related moves, Pittsburgh will recall Pedro Ciriaco, Jason Jaramillo, Brad Lincoln and Justin Thomas and select the contracts of Alex Presley, Brandon Moss, Brian Bass and Steven Jackson.

The Pirates, who traded for Iwamura last offseason, have already designated the infielder for assignment once in 2010. Pittsburgh reportedly tried to find a trade partner, but ultimately kept Iwamura and demoted him to the minor leagues. The 31-year-old hit .265/.403/.395 at Triple A Indianapolis – much better than the .182/.292/.267 line he posted in 193 big league plate appearances this year.

Kratz, 30, debuted in the major leagues this summer after a decade in the minors. His minor league numbers suggest he has some pop and patience, but Kratz collected just four singles and two walks in 36 big league plate appearances.

Poll: Derek Jeter’s Next Contract

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Derek Jeter will presumably re-sign with the Yankees this winter and even though he's having a down-year by his lofty standards, the Yankees don't intend to "play hardball" when their shortstop hits free agency this winter, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Understandably, they'd prefer not to bicker with their captain and are prepared to pay him.

Jeter has a .264/.331/.372 line in 2010. It's acceptable for a durable shortstop, but he has never posted lower batting, on base, or slugging averages in a full season. The stats aren't there this year, but Jeter did have an excellent season at the plate in 2009. The 36-year-old is 103 hits away from reaching 3,000 for his career and provides the Yankees with value as an iconic, marketable player. Let's make some predictions:

How much guaranteed money will Derek Jeter sign for?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Konerko

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Paul Konerko's season has him all over the American League leaderboard and on the fringes of the MVP conversation. The 34-year-old has already homered 33 times and he ranks fourth in the league in slugging percentage (.582) and sixth in the league in on base average (.397). Jose Bautista is the only American Leaguer with more home runs than Konerko, who is setting himself up for his next contract.

The Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox and Nationals could all have some level of interest this winter, but those clubs will be able to turn to the likes of Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche and Adam Dunn if they don't like Konerko's asking price.

Dunn has similar numbers to Konerko and is reportedly seeking a three or four-year deal. Two winters ago, when Dunn was negotiating his current contract, he had to lower his demands. He eventually signed for $20MM over two years, though he was coming off a season in which he hit 40 homers and posted an .898 OPS. Dunn's reputation as a poor defender hurt him then and will likely limit his value again this winter. UZR has generally ranked Konerko as an average defender, though the metric suggests his fielding has been poor in 2010. 

Konerko's age (he turns 35 in Spring Training 2011) will likely make teams reluctant to commit to him for more than two seasons. Though Konerko has generally been healthy this season, he recently missed games with lower back stiffness. He can hit for power, but a number of similarly skilled DHs and first basemen will hit free agency along with Konerko this winter. If the first baseman is a Type A free agent after the season, as expected, and he turns down an offer of arbitration from the White Sox, teams would have to give up a draft pick to sign him, which could reduce interest.

Despite his age, Konerko is having his best season in years. Other players aren't as reliable as the 14-year veteran, who has hit fewer than 27 homers just two times in the last decade. That kind of consistency will allow Konerko to ask for a multi-year deal with a significant base salary. A two-year contract worth $20MM or so seems reasonable at this point.

Rosenthal On Jeter, Werth, Cardinals, Reds

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Derek Jeter’s .264/.331/.372 batting line is remarkably similar to Marco Scutaro’s .271/.331/.372 line, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports points out. Scutaro’s a quality major league player, but the two-year $12.5MM deal he signed as a free agent last winter pales in comparison to the kind of contract Jeter seems likely to sign when he hits the open market after the season. Here’s Rosenthal’s Jeter update, plus other notes from around the majors:

  • Yankees officials do not plan to “play hardball” with Jeter this winter.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes suggested in May that $30MM over three years could be reasonable, but the Yankees don’t want to lowball their captain.
  • One GM who may have interest in signing Jayson Werth this offseason has doubts about the outfielder’s ability to hit in a less imposing lineup.
  • Cardinals manager Tony La Russa told Rosenthal that St. Louis made multiple waiver claims on hitters last month, though they “went nowhere.”
  • The Reds and Dusty Baker have exchanged ideas since the Reds offered Baker a one-year extension with no raise, according to Rosenthal. 

Rangers Designate Alex Cora For Assignment

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The Rangers designated infielder Alex Cora for assignment to create roster space for Esteban German. The Rangers signed Cora last month after the Mets released him, but the 34-year-old played in just four games for Texas, batting only seven times (he singled twice). 

German, 32, has not yet appeared in the majors this season, though he is an eight-year major league veteran. He posted a .280/.371/.388 line at Triple A this year, spending most of his time at short, second and third. The utilityman also played left and center, though the Rangers presumably intend to use German on the infield.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Bronson Arroyo

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If the Reds don't pick up Bronson Arroyo's option for 2011, he'll be in high demand. Only three pitchers have logged more innings than Arroyo over the course of the past five seasons and the 33-year-old has posted a 3.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over that span. Arroyo's 2010 season has been strong, as usual. He has a 3.84 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 for the NL Central leaders this year.

Arroyo hasn't started fewer than 28 games in a season since joining Boston's rotation in 2004. That kind of consistency has value on the open market, even if Arroyo doesn't have overpowering stuff. The Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Indians, Rockies, Brewers, Nationals and Diamondbacks are some of the teams that could have interest in adding an innings eater this winter. There are other options of course – Kevin Millwood, Ted Lilly, Javier Vazquez and Dave Bush will be available – but Arroyo would have no trouble finding a job if the Reds decline his option.

It would cost Cincinnati $2MM to decline Arroyo's option and either $11MM or $13MM to pick it up (the cost depends on how many innings the right-hander pitches). The Reds have many pitchers to consider for their 2011 rotation, but none of them are as predictable as Arroyo. It would not be surprising at all to see the Reds pick up Arroyo's option.

If GM Walt Jocketty decides to turn down the option, the Reds will have to decide whether to offer arbitration to Arroyo, who currently projects as a Type A free agent. They could obtain compensatory picks if Arroyo declined an offer of arbitration to sign elsewhere, but he could always accept their offer.

Jason Marquis, another durable early thirties right-hander, signed a two-year deal worth $15MM last offseason despite similarly low strikeout rates. If Arroyo hits the open market this winter, it would not be surprising to see him sign a two-year deal worth $20MM or so.

Potential Trade Destinations For Colby Rasmus

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Most teams fortunate enough to have cheap, productive players don’t have a whole lot of interest in trading them. The Cardinals, however, may consider offers for Colby Rasmus this winter. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that his 24-year-old center fielder asked for a trade, and GM John Mozeliak must now decide whether to make one. 

Rasmus denies that he asked for a trade, but has undeniably drawn the ire of La Russa and Albert Pujols. La Russa is a free agent after the season, so the Cardinals could simply hire another manager this winter to avoid clubhouse tension. But Pujols isn’t going anywhere and he says the Cards should trade Rasmus if he doesn’t want to play in St. Louis. Of course Pujols isn’t the one making this decision. Mozeliak would likely have serious reservations about dealing a cornerstone player, regardless of Pujols’ feelings and Rasmus’ reported demand. 

After all, Rasmus doesn’t hit free agency until after the 2014 season. He has an .849 OPS this year and plays a premium defensive position for the MLB minimum salary. It is extremely difficult to replace that kind of asset, which is precisely why other teams would have interest in Rasmus if the Cardinals decide to trade their center fielder. Here’s a list of potential suitors for Rasmus, but do keep in mind that Cardinals executives have given no public indication that they are seriously considering a trade:

  • The Braves have a pair of disappointing center fielders (Melky Cabrera and Nate McLouth) and a thing for Georgia natives, so they would presumably have interest in Rasmus.
  • The Padres have Tony Gwynn, Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Blanks and others under team control in 2011, so they’d have to get creative.
  • The Brewers would likely have trouble prying Rasmus away from the Cards, since they play in the same division, but an outfield of Ryan Braun, Rasmus and Corey Hart wouldn’t look bad.
  • The A’s traded away a promising center fielder (Carlos Gonzalez) two offseasons ago; maybe they’d seize the chance to acquire an equally promising young player.
  • The Red Sox have a pair of options under contract for 2011, but injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury diminished the team’s center field depth. 
  • The Nationals, who are now dealing with their own center fielder’s issues, would likely have interest in Rasmus if the Cards make him available.
  • The Royals don't have a long-term option in center field.
  • The Blue Jays would presumably inquire, as they did when Yunel Escobar fell out of favor in Atlanta.

Other teams would likely have interest, too, since players like Rasmus aren’t often available via trade. Again, the Cardinals will likely make every effort to keep Rasmus in St. Louis before putting him on the market. But if they do decide to trade him this winter, a variety of rival teams should show interest.

Varitek Intends To Play In 2011

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Jason Varitek told Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal that he intends to play in 2011. The catcher, who hits free agency after the season, missed July and August with a broken foot, but he says he wants to continue his career, partly because he feels fresher than usual.

The Marlins, Tigers and Dodgers are among the teams that could have interest in adding a free agent catcher this offseason, so Varitek should draw interest, even if the Red Sox don’t re-sign him. Varitek started the 2010 season on an offensive tear, so it seemed that agent Scott Boras could demand a two-year deal for the 38-year-old. But the .342/.419/.868 line Varitek had on May 13th soon faded; he has batted just .211/.258/.333 since. The sample size is tiny, because of Varitek’s injury and status as a bench player, but a two-year deal seems less likely now than it did after Varitek's hot start and before his injury.

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