Latest On Brett Cecil
Cardinals reliever Brett Cecil says he’s pleased thus far with the results of his carpal tunnel surgery, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The southpaw is preparing to throw from a mound for the first time since his procedure in early April.
Cecil ended up going under the knife when he experienced a loss of sensation in his fingers this spring. That was only the latest in a line of woes for the veteran hurler, whose tenure in St. Louis has not gone as hoped when the team gave him a rare four-year deal in advance of the 2017 campaign. He’s earning $7.5MM this year and $7MM next, with full no-trade rights.
Last season, Cecil experienced shoulder and foot problems — along with notable declines in velocity, swinging-strike rate, and chase rate (among other things). Simply put, he wasn’t fooling opposing hitters. Cecil walked more of them than he struck out en route to 32 2/3 innings of 6.89 ERA pitching.
It’s anyone’s guess whether Cecil will ever be anything close to the stud setup man the Cards thought they were getting. But they’ll soon get a sense of his post-surgical form. If all goes well, Cecil could launch a rehab assignment not long after his 33rd birthday in early July and perhaps even make it back to the MLB mound by the end of the month.
A.J. Puk, Jesus Luzardo Impress In Rehab Debuts
A pair of highly talented Athletics lefties returned to competitive action yesterday after long layoffs. Prospects A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo each began injury rehab assignments last night, appearing for the High-A Stockton Ports.
That news is quite promising on its own. Better still for the A’s, the southpaw duo looked to be in fine form. As Tyler Maun of MiLB.com writes, both hurlers impressed in 33-pitch piggyback appearances.
Puk came out blazing in his first competitive work since the 2017 season, working in the upper nineties with his acclaimed heater. He ultimately ran up four strikeouts in two frames while permitting one run on one hit — a home run from highly regarded Giants prospect Heliot Ramos.
It’s excellent to see that Puk has regained his arm speed since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He underwent the procedure in April of 2011, temporarily halting what was likely to be a quick run through the Oakland farm system. Puk, who went sixth overall in the 2016 draft, had been expected to make his way to the majors early in the 2018 campaign after an impressive showing in MLB camp that year.
The story isn’t altogether different for Luzardo, who featured in a similar role in the spring of 2019. He also had hopes of a swift rise to the majors dashed by injury. In his case, shoulder troubles caused the team to order a shutdown late in camp. The organization understandably set a cautious course for the 21-year-old hurler.
Last night, Luzardo spun three scoreless frames. He struck out two, with Ramos among the victims, while logging 24 strikes in his 33 pitches. That’s efficient work from the precocious hurler, who is known most for his exceptional feel and command over his three-pitch arsenal.
Where things go from here will depend upon quite a few factors, including the way that Puk and Luzardo recover from their first big tests. There’s little question that they’ll be tasked with multiple additional rehab starts while they build up their pitch counts and the club evaluates their readiness. But it’s hard not to dream on successive MLB debuts as soon as early July.
“I just know that they’re going to be throwing pretty consistently now until the end of the year,” Stockton pitching coach Chris Smith says. “The gloves are off. They want to see those kids hit the ground running.”
That’s an encouraging takeaway for A’s fans. These exciting young pitchers still have hurdles to clear before reaching the majors, but that goal is now clearly in sight. Adding them to a generally subpar rotation mix would completely change the complexion of the Oakland pitching staff. Whether that’ll occur remains to be seen, but the A’s ought to have a good sense before the trade deadline.
Braves Sign First-Rounder Braden Shewmake
8:54pm: Shewmake signed for full slot value, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets.
7:48pm: The Braves have announced the signing of first-round draft pick Braden Shewmake. Bonus details aren’t yet known.
Shewmake was taken with the 21st overall selection, which came with a $3.13MM bonus pool allocation. The Texas A&M infielder becomes the second of the two Atlanta picks to put pen to paper. The Braves already tied the knot with Shea Langeliers, who was taken with the compensatory pick (ninth overall) from the club’s failure to agree to terms with last year’s first-rounder.
While he didn’t draw pre-draft grades as high as his eventual selection, Shewmake was seen as a potential first-round talent. ESPN.com’s Keith Law (#26) and Baseball America (#27) were highest on him among the pundits.
Though he’s a highly accomplished collegiate hitter, some wonder whether Shewmake will ever have much power as a pro. He’s also a candidate to move off of the shortstop position in the long run — particularly if he adds the strength necessary to increase his pop. There are several potential paths available for Shewmake; the Braves obviously feel that one of them will lead to a productive MLB career.
O’s GM Elias Discusses Trade Availability Of Trey Mancini
Orioles GM Mike Elias addressed the media today regarding an unfortunate development for the team’s pitching staff. The conversation also drifted into the upcoming trade deadline — Elias’s first at the helm of the Baltimore baseball operations department.
In particular, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com covers, the rookie GM discussed the potentially tricky issue of how to handle young outfielder Trey Mancini. The 27-year-old has been the club’s most productive player this year, as Elias readily volunteered. Mancini is controllable through 2022 and will reach arbitration for the first time this fall.
Elias looked to walk a line in his comments, inviting offers while also making clear that he’s not going to just take whatever he can get for the team’s best trade chip. “We’re not looking to part with Trey,” said Elias. “That said, as I’ve said all along, we’re open to anything.”
Elias called Mancini “an integral part of this team.” He also left rather a wide door in discussing what it would take to make a deal. Rather than suggesting that the club would need to be overwhelmed or specifying the type of return he’d want, Elias said a trade would at least be possible if his front office “feel[s] that what we’re getting back is better for the organization than what we’re giving up.”
The rebuilding O’s are focused on the future, giving them ample reason to consider deals while Mancini is in good form. (After all, he wasn’t in 2018.) But it’s not the only option by any stretch. There is still some time left to enjoy Mancini. It never hurts to have at least one popular, homegrown star to please the fans that show up and help bridge to a new period of competitiveness.
If that’s the path that Elias takes, then it certainly would make sense for the club to check in on the possibility of an extension. It doesn’t sound as if talks have occurred to this point, but Elias said that it’s “certainly a thought that’s crossed my mind.” Labeling Mancini a player the team would like to keep “around for the long haul,” the new chief baseball decisionmaker certainly opened the door to that possibility without setting any expectations. Mid-season deals for younger players are rather rare, but some chatter over the winter or next spring would hardly be surprising — if Mancini remains in Baltimore.
Rays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Greg Jones
JUNE 11: Jones receives the full slot value of $3,027,000, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).
JUNE 7: The Rays have agreed to an at-slot deal with 22nd overall selection Greg Jones, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The UNC-Wilmington shortstop will receive just over $3MM.
Jones was a bit of a polarizing player entering the draft. All agreed that Jones has true standout speed and base-running ability, with at least average raw power. His prospect value depends upon whether you believe he’ll ultimately make full use of his tools.
The Fangraphs prospect team was far and away the most bullish, ranking Jones 27th overall. MLB.com and Baseball America were slightly more concerned with the profile, grading Jones in the top-fifty range. ESPN.com’s Keith Law did not include Jones in his own top fifty list, but did mention that he anticipates an eventual move to the outfield.
Going to the outfield grass isn’t necessarily a problem, as Jones seems to have the promise of becoming a high-grade defender in center. The question remains whether he’ll ever hit enough to be a big-league regular. The Rays obviously see a path to that outcome.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jake Odorizzi
The Twins have enjoyed quite a few nice surprises in the course of their strong start to the year. The output of righty Jake Odorizzi is certainly among them. Don’t look now, but he’s actually now topping the ERA leaderboard among qualified starters. So … is Odorizzi headed for a free agent bonanza after the season?
There’s little doubt that Odorizzi is delivering great value on the $9.5MM he’s earning in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Through 70 1/3 innings, he owns a 1.92 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
Odorizzi is tied for the league lead with nine wins, for those that value that statistic. That’s a hefty tally for a pitcher in this day and age, but it doesn’t mean he’s working deep into games. Odorizzi has gone past six innings just twice; on the positive side, he has only failed to last at least five frames on two occasions.
This continues a low-inning trend for Odorizzi. He took sixty starts in the 2017-18 seasons, but threw only 307 2/3 innings. That recent history is notable in other ways as well. Odorizzi compiled useful but unspectacular numbers in his most recent seasons, working to a 4.33 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.
The 2017-18 version of Odorizzi coughed up 1.5 homers per nine. He was and is a heavy flyball pitcher. Opposing hitters currently carry a 28.2% groundball rate and 20.2 degree launch angle, much as they did last year. While they’re putting the ball in the air, though, they haven’t found their home run stroke this year. Odorizzi has permitted just 0.51 HR/9 on a meager 4.9% HR/FB.
What to make of the changes? You certainly have to question the sustainability. Statcast says that Odorizzi has allowed a meager .234 wOBA, but calculates a .284 xwOBA — still good, but hardly as dominating as the results. We might expect a lower BABIP given his batted-ball profile, but .251 still seems light. If and when the home run suppression dissipates, Odorizzi could be left looking like much the same pitcher he has always been. Both xFIP (4.20) and SIERA (3.92) see him that way already.
That said, there does appear to be something more here than a nice, fortune-laden run of results. Odorizzi has bumped his swinging-strike rate to 12.8% by riding a rather notable velocity boost — all the way over 93 mph on both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs after sitting under 92 in the prior two seasons. He’s currently at personal-high levels with both heaters, which at a bare minimum suggests he’s in a good place physically and mechanically.
There’s nothing here to suggest that Odorizzi is suddenly a front-line starter. It’s quite likely he’ll come back to earth over the next several months. But there’s also some evidence that he’s in his best form since he established himself as a quality starter (and underappreciated part of a notable trade) with the Rays.
Odorizzi will turn 30 right at the start of the 2020 campaign. With a run of extensions gutting the 2019-20 free agent market, he’ll have a chance to position himself as one of the better available starters. When MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes last ranked the upcoming free agents nearly six weeks ago, he listed Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler in the top five and noted a group of other useful but clearly non-elite starters in the honorable mention category: Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Cole Hamels. Odorizzi has outperformed them all since. We’ll see how it all looks when the season is over, but he’s an increasingly notable member of the upcoming class of free agents.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers Looking At “Controllable Starters”
As they begin to consider their possible approaches to the trade deadline, the Rangers are “evaluating controllable starters,” according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The organization also has some rather immediate concerns in the pitching staff with little in the way of obvious solutions, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.
Despite a rather surprising 35-30 start to the year, the Rangers have little but questions in their rotation behind Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. Both of those hurlers could ultimately end up on the block come late July if the team can’t keep pace, which still seems a distinct possibility.
For now, the front office is preparing for both buy and sell possibilities, according to Morosi. That largely states the obvious. It’s also imaginable that the Texas organization will ultimately largely hold pat, or perhaps engage in only a limited buy-side approach. While they canvass the market for possibilities, the Rangers will surely continue to evaluate their roster to see how much staying power it may have.
It’s all but unimaginable that the Rangers will ultimately adopt any sort of extreme approach to the deadline. There really isn’t much hope of chasing down the Astros in the division. While a Wild Card would be quite appealing, particularly with a new park slated to be opened, the Rangers won’t give up too much future value for immediate improvements.
Given all that, the “controllable starters” concept makes some sense on paper. It’s also true that most every other contender will have interest in the same types of pitchers, so there’ll be ample competition. But the Rangers could look for opportunities not only to improve now, but also to get a jump on preparing for 2020 and beyond. GM Jon Daniels has already begun thinking about how the roster can be improved in the coming offseason.
Typically, we thinking of younger, arbitration-eligible pitchers with the term “controllable.” The Rangers may or may not have much success fishing in those waters. It’ll be interesting to see if they also look into some older, more expensive hurlers that won’t come with big prospect price tags. Mike Leake of the Mariners and the Giants’ Jeff Samardzija are among the hypothetical possibilities in this general bucket.
Report: Pirates’ “Preference” Is To Trade Corey Dickerson
The Pirates are interested in finding a trade partner to take outfielder Corey Dickerson, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Dickerson, 30, is earning $8.5MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
As we discussed recently upon Dickerson’s activation, the Pirates are facing obvious roster pressures in several areas. The club is currently carrying only three starters, allowing it to pad its relief corps and accommodate an extra position player, but that’s a temporary measure.
Dickerson was just brought back from the injured list, so he’s only six games into his season. In the interim, the club lost another left-handed-hitting corner piece in Lonnie Chisenhall. But it also welcomed back Gregory Polanco, struck paydirt on a low-cost deal with switch-hitting veteran Melky Cabrera, and saw youngster Bryan Reynolds (also a switch-hitter) burst onto the scene.
Cabrera is said to be drawing interest from “multiple contenders,” per Rosenthal. He is now slashing a cool .335/.375/.462 through 185 plate appearances. He’s not a good defender and won’t sustain a .370 BABIP, but certainly seems a worthwhile target as a bench bat. Cabrera’s low-cost, low-commitment contract situation ($1.15MM salary) is surely of appeal as well.
Rosenthal says that the Bucs “want to take another stab at contention before moving Cabrera and possibly others.” That makes sense, as the club isn’t yet buried in the division with more than six weeks to go until the trade deadline. But it’s hard to square that with the idea that the Pittsburgh org prefers to ship out Dickerson, who is a younger player with a better recent track record than Cabrera. Last year, Dickerson posted a 115 wRC+ and graded as a high end defender.
All in all, it’s a bit of an odd situation for the Pirates, who scrambled for outfielders and now find themselves in dire need of pitching. There isn’t much reason to think that a contender will part with a worthwhile, immediate rotation (or even relief) piece for one of these outfielders.
Cabrera may be the more cost-efficient option for the Bucs, but they will surely be selling low on Dickerson unless he goes on a tear over the next few weeks — in which case it’d be all the harder to move him unless the team is itself out of the race. Putting Polanco on the block might create some opportunities for meaningfully addressing the pitching staff, but he has had some ups and downs and that’d be a much more consequential decision.
The Dodgers Bullpen Probably Looks Worse Than It Is
“It’s not that far off,” said Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly last night after his latest rough outing. “It probably looks worse than what it really is.”
Kelly was referring to his own situation when he chatted with reporters (including Pedro Moura of The Athletic, Twitter link). But he probably could have spoken in similar terms of the Dodgers bullpen as a whole.
The results haven’t been great; I won’t argue with you there. But the Dodgers actually sit in the middle of the pack as a unit by measure of both ERA and fielding independent pitching. There have been blown saves, but not a dramatic number in comparison to some other clubs.
In many respects, it’s not even worth thinking too hard about how this relief unit looks right now. The Dodgers are blitzing an otherwise mediocre division. At 45-21, the team is easily the class of the entire National League to this point. The relief corps hasn’t been bad enough to jeopardize a seemingly inevitable march to a division crown.
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman certainly isn’t blind to the issues that do exist, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register recently covered. But he’s also focused primarily on the end goal: “It’s about feeling like we’ve got four to five ‘pen arms in October that we trust and can help us,” says Friedman. “That’s what you need.”
So, can the Dodgers get to that desired handful of trustworthy hurlers? (And maybe settle upon two or three nice complimentary specialists to fill out a postseason roster?) Beyond acknowledging the potential for outside additions, Friedman says he still believes in the players currently populating the major-league roster. He also cites “other guys that are knocking on the door for an audition at some point.”
Kenley Jansen remains the rock. He’s not what he was, but it’d be foolish to say he’s washed up when he’s carrying 12.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. Pedro Baez has his warts but keeps getting results; he’s through 28 1/3 innings this year with a 3.18 ERA. The numbers aren’t as promising this year as last for Dylan Floro, as he hasn’t continued to suppress home runs, but he’s still managing a 3.13 ERA in 23 frames.
That trio constitutes something of a core, but it’s not the most intimidating of late-inning bunches. And the rest of the arms come with yet more questions. Yimi Garcia and Scott Alexander are among the team’s most-used other hurlers. The former has been torched by the long ball and may be at risk if he can’t find a groove. The latter is exhibiting declining swinging-strike and groundball numbers, but remains at least an interesting change-of-pace arm.
Alexander is the sort of hurler that Friedman seems to be thinking of when he refers to having “enough diversified looks” in the current unit. But what is it that gives the veteran baseball exec confidence that it’s “more about augmenting than tearing down” when it comes to structuring his bullpen?
The sheer volume of possibilities is part of what inspires confidence. It starts with the current or future excess rotation pieces. Ross Stripling has seen a bit of a velo fall-off this year, and has been better in the rotation than the pen, but is an excellent swingman to have around. Lefty Julio Urias has boosted his velocity and swinging-strike rates are up in a relief role. (His future remains clouded by an ongoing domestic violence investigation, though he won’t face prosecution unless he fails to meet the conditions set by authorities.) Veteran Kenta Maeda has been a flexible piece for the Dodgers in years past and will be useful in some capacity come October.
There are multiple swing-and-miss guys amassed at Triple-A, including 40-man members JT Chargois (30 strikeouts in 24 innings) and Josh Sborz (34 strikeouts in 26 innings) as well as experienced former big leaguers Kevin Quackenbush (43 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and Justin Grimm (41 strikeouts in 26 innings). There are a host of other plausible arms bouncing around in the upper reaches of the Dodgers farm. In addition to several hurlers with 40-man spots who’ve already had some prior MLB opportunities, the Dodgers have some untested prospects nearing readiness. Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, and Dustin May are among them.
So did we leave anyone out? Oh, right, Kelly …
The Dodgers clearly targeted him over the offseason, drawn to his big velocity and promising peripherals. Kelly has boosted his strikeout rate to 11 per nine and run up his groundball rate to 55.4%, but he is coughing up 1.69 HR/9 on a 28.6% HR/FB rate. Opposing hitters carry a .377 BABIP and Kelly’s strand rate sits at just 56.9%. There’s cause to believe regression is coming, but he’s also being tuned up for a 49.2% hard-hit rate.
If Kelly can get things on track in the next several weeks, the Dodgers will have added confidence in their ability to trot out five strong arms late in the year. Regardless, the late-inning group looks in need of supplementation. But that’s not much of a concern for an organization that has so much talent on and around the MLB roster. Friedman will have plenty of options on the trade market. With a huge division lead providing breathing room, the veteran exec sees a path to getting the unit he desires when the time comes: “We’ll operate on dual tracks of doing everything we can to get our existing guys better while canvassing the market.”
Health Notes: Cingrani, Dominguez, Inciarte, Judge, Betances, German
Let’s take a look at the latest injury news from around the game …
- Dodgers lefty Tony Cingrani has undergone surgery on his left shoulder labrum, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports on Twitter. The recovery will cost him the remainder of the season. This news doesn’t come as a surprise, but it does represent confirmation that Cingrani will hit the open market without throwing another pitch in Los Angeles.
- Phillies reliever Seranthony Dominguez is “hoping for a miracle” when it comes to his own potential surgery, as he tells reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). He’ll receive a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, but all indications are that Tommy John surgery will ultimately be performed.
- The Braves haven’t yet seen much progress for outfielder Ender Inciarte, skipper Brian Snitker told David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and other reporters. (Twitter link.) The veteran center fielder has yet to engage in any significant baseball activities, Snitker indicates, as the club has exercised ample care with his lumbar strain. “Still no timetable,” says Snitker. “… It’s kind of two steps forward and one back, it seems, in the whole process. It’s a back; you’ve got to be careful.”
- There’s quite a bit of talent still bouncing around the injured list for the Yankees, with outfielder Aaron Judge the most notable of several stars. He’s making some measurable progress, having now advanced to taking cuts against high-velo pitching machines, manager Aaron Boone told reporters including Coley Harvey of ESPN (via Twitter). It’s even possible that Judge will be ready for some live action this weekend. There’s still no real timeline, but it certainly seems the slugger’s left oblique is feeling better.
- A pair of Yankees righties have health events of some note tomorrow, Boone also announced. (MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch covered the news; Twitter links.) Reliever Dellin Betances (shoulder) is “still a little bit sore” after a recent setback, so he’s headed in for another MRI. Meanwhile, the club will see if a cortisone shot will help Domingo German deal with a hip flexor strain. He’s already on the IL but is hoping for a brief stay.