MLBTR Poll: Red Sox Punishment
After a long wait, we finally learned of the official outcome of the Red Sox sign-stealing investigation. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred docked the team its 2020 second-round pick. He also suspended the club’s replay coordinator, J.T. Watkins, after determining that Watkins had at times used a TV feed during games to figure out an opponents’ signs and then conveyed that information to “a limited number of Red Sox players,” who could then attempt to apply it if they reached second base. There was evidently no evidence of a broader effort by team leadership, which (per Manfred) had in fact “consistently communicated MLB’s sign-stealing rules to non-player staff and made commendable efforts toward instilling a culture of compliance in their organization.”
Manfred took a much harsher view of the conduct of the Astros, whose World Series-winning 2017 club was judged to have engaged in a broad-based, long-running, and rather expansive effort to ascertain signs and convey them in real time to batters. The Houston organization was docked four top draft choices and $5MM, while its manager and general manager were hit with year-long suspensions.
A slightly lesser (season-long) ban has now been applied to former Astros bench coach and Red Sox manager Alex Cora, though Manfred made clear it was for his conduct while in Houston. Cora lost his job in Boston over the offseason after the Astros fired A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow. Former Astros player Carlos Beltran also departed his managerial gig with the Mets before it really even started.
Since the actions against Cora didn’t stem from his time with the Red Sox, it wasn’t really part of the punishment. The team will have to fill in for Watkins, though that action was obviously targeted primarily at him personally. As for the lost draft pick, Manfred made clear he levied the punishment because the Red Sox may have benefited, not because of any organizational failing.
When we polled the MLBTR readership on Manfred’s handling of the Astros case, most felt it was either on the mark or too light. How do you feel about his actions with regards to the Red Sox? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
Did Manfred Issue The Right Punishment To Red Sox?
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Too light 70% (7,229)
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On the mark 20% (2,024)
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Too heavy 10% (1,070)
Total votes: 10,323
Athletics Notes: Ballpark, Coronavirus Impact
There’s not much new to report on around the game, but there has been a bit of chatter relating to the Athletics, so we’ll round it up here …
- In response to a reader question, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle provides an initial assessment of the potential impact of the pandemic on the Athletics’ plans for a new ballpark. As she explains, it’s still far too soon to know how the outlook will change. But there’s little doubt the ambitious project — which has advanced through multiple tough stages and finally seemed on track to being realized — will face new hurdles and potential for delay or modification.
- The A’s are of the few teams that haven’t yet decided how to handle non-team employees during the MLB shutdown. Per Slusser, via Twitter, the Oakland org hasn’t yet promised salaries through the end of May but also hasn’t decided against that course. It’s unclear at this point whether the Athletics will follow the majority of ballclubs that have guaranteed ongoing paychecks at least to that point of the year.
- Perhaps this helps explain why the Mets snapped up Tim Tebow under then-GM Sandy Alderson? It turns out that when Alderson was running the Athletics, he tried to pull off an even bigger cross-sport stunner. Alderson tells ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (audio link) that he tried to keep Michael Jordan from joining the White Sox when the NBA legend decided to try his hand at baseball. To woo Jordan west, Alderson was willing to put him directly onto the A’s active roster. That likely would not have turned out terribly well from a baseball perspective, but it sure would’ve made the MJ saga even more interesting to follow at the time.
- Oh, and one more development: Mark Canha — who is hoping to build off of a breakout 2019 season — is trying not to obliterate private property with his MacGyver’ed batting practice setup.
What In The Sam Hill(iard) Do The Rockies Have In The Outfield?
If the Rockies are to come anywhere near meeting the expectations of ownership, they’re going to need a lot of things to break right in the near term. More than anything, the club requires a few high-quality supplemental players to emerge (or, in the case of some expensive veterans, re-emerge) to supplement an enviable set of stars.
We reflexively think about concerns with pitching when it comes to the Colorado organization, but the team’s bats have been an even greater problem in recent years. The recent Rox outfield has consisted of Charlie Blackmon and a revolving cast of mostly replacement-level bandmates.
As Blackmon ages gracefully — he’s a continuing threat at the plate but has faded badly in the field and on the bases — there’s a glaring need for new talent. Actually, hold that: there has been some talent. The club paid big for Ian Desmond. It gave more chances to Carlos Gonzalez and even got one final ride with Matt Holliday. Some well-regarded prospects such as Garrett Hampson and Raimel Tapia have filtered up. And of course we’ve seen what David Dahl can do … when healthy. What this team needs is honest-to-goodness, consistent, real-live production from someone other than Blackmon.
The Rockies have allocated all their available payroll. They let Mike Tauchman go to the Yankees (not that it wasn’t plenty understandable at the time). They’re badly in need of an emergence from within.
That’s just what the team got late in 2019 from unheralded newcomer Sam Hilliard. His emergence largely flew under the radar as the Rockies limped to the end of a brutally disappointing campaign. While it’s always worth caution when it comes to a 27-game sample, Hilliard was a legitimately exciting performer down the stretch. Could the Rockies have something here?
Hilliard was known as a two-way player for most of his amateur career. He emerged as an interesting position-player target in advance of the 2015 draft, but the Rockies were able to wait until the 15th round to nab him. Hilliard is big, strong, and swift.
The results have been mixed since Hilliard hit the pro ranks. He put up strong homer and steal tallies on his way up the farm system, but always did a fair bit of swinging and missing. Hilliard hit a bit of a wall in 2018 at Double-A. And though his Triple-A output in the ensuing season looked big on paper — 35 long balls, 22 steals, .262/.335/.558 slash — it translated to a fairly modest 107 wRC+ since it occurred in an exceedingly offensive-friendly environment.
When he took to the majors late in the year, there wasn’t much cause for over-excitement. But the 26-year-old delivered well beyond expectations, sending seven balls over the fence in 87 plate appearances while turning in a .273/.356/.649 output. That, too, took place in an explosive setting for bats, but it worked out to a healthy 138 wRC+ output at the dish.
Here’s the thing about Hilliard: prospect watchers still have tempered expectations, despite the big debut. But there are some reasons to believe he could keep producing at an above-average rate in the majors, all while providing value in the field and on the bases. It seems promising that Hilliard actually reduced his upper-minors strikeout rate upon reaching the majors (to a palatable 26.4%) while walking in over ten percent of his MLB plate appearances (above league average).
The most recent Fangraphs assessment of Hilliard’s outlook notes that “his ability to identify pitches he can drive is impressive in context, but well-executed pitches can get him out.” Indeed, he took Noah Syndergaard deep twice in one game … then launched against high-grade lefties Hyun-Jin Ryu and Josh Hader. Perhaps Hilliard’s demonstrated capacity can be expanded more consistently. Given his former focus on pitching, it’s said he’s still maturing as a hitter.
The Rockies sure could use a pleasant surprise from Hilliard. They could also stand to see Dahl on the field for the entire season. That might give the team an all-lefty group of regulars, along with Blackmon, with Hampson and Desmond supplementing from the right side. There’s at least one other near-term player with potential, too. Yonathan Daza is already on the 40-man and is seen as a prospect of some note. His 2019 debut went in the opposite direction of Hilliard’s, with Daza turning in a .206/.257/.237 slash over 105 plate appearances. But Daza had a big showing at Triple-A and has hit well this spring.
It probably wouldn’t be wise for the Rockies or their fans to expect too much from Hilliard and the rest of the outfield unit in 2020 and beyond. But it seems they can at least hope for something more.
Majority Of MLB Teams Commit To Paying Non-Player Employees Through May
APRIL 22: The Yankees have also committed to paying employees through the end of May, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
APRIL 21: Three more teams have adopted a policy of payment through the end of May: the Angels (via Passan, on Twitter), Pirates (via Jon Heyman of MLB Network, on Twitter), and Rangers (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, via Twitter).
Additionally, the Rockies have adopted a more open-ended policy akin to that of the Tigers, per Britt Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).
APRIL 20:We’ve heard a trickle of information over recent weeks regarding MLB teams’ plans for non-player employees. That turned into a flood today, with news emerging on the plans of a majority of teams around the game.
While MLB commissioner Rob Manfred announced previously that uniform employee contracts would be suspended at the start of the month of May, thus freeing teams to make their own decisions on retaining personnel, we had already begun to see several clubs promise employment through the end of May. It’s now clear that a majority of clubs will reach that commitment, with ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reporting the full list via Twitter.
These 17 teams will pay non-player employees through at least the end of May: the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, Twins, and White Sox. Beyond that, there are no known assurances.
At least one team — the Tigers — appears to be going beyond that measure. Detroit owner Chris Ilitch announced today that the club has “no plays for lay-offs or furloughs of its employees.” While the organization did reserve the right to notify employees “if things change,” he said it’s “taking a longer term view.” (Via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, on Twitter.)
The Padres have also announced plans that include longer-term assurances, albeit with some caveats, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Baseball operations staffers are promised jobs through the end of October, though those earning more than $60K annually will take progressive pay cuts. Employees on the business side have been promised paychecks through mid-May.
That leaves eleven other teams whose plans aren’t yet accounted for. But it’s not as if the failure to grant assurances by this point ensures the opposite outcome, so the absence of news should not be taken as an indication that layoffs are certain for those remaining organizations.
2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Left-Handed Relievers
In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen, center fielders, and corner outfielders who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Now we’ll turn to the pitchers, beginning with southpaw relievers (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).
Top of the Class
- Sean Doolittle (34): There’s no denying the 2019 downturn for a pitcher that had been among the game’s most dominant relievers for several years beforehand. His swinging-strike rate moved from 16.8% in the prior season down to 12.1%; his ERA shot up from 1.60 to 4.05. But most of the rough outings took place in the month of August, while Doolittle battled through a knee injury that ultimately forced him to the injured list. He returned to perform well late in the season and in the Nats’ World Series run (2 earned runs on 6 hits with 8:1 K/BB in 10 1/3 innings).
- Brad Hand (31): The Indians closer would surely be the top southpaw on this year’s class, but he’s not going to make it to market unless he has a disappointing season. With a typical campaign, the club is sure to pick up its $10MM club option rather than paying a $1MM buyout — though we could still see Hand moved via trade in that event.
Solid Setup Options
- Jose Alvarez (32): Not much jumps off the page here. Fielding-independent pitching metrics have never much loved Alvarez and were especially unimpressed in 2019 (4.21 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA). He has never struck out more than a batter per inning or generated dominant groundball numbers. But Alvarez has kept turning in good outcomes. In 122 innings over the past two seasons, he carries a 3.02 ERA.
- Andrew Chafin (31): Chafin could be the top setup option available this fall. He’s relatively youthful in comparison to the alternatives and has rather consistently gotten the job done in recent seasons. Last year, Chafin jumped to a career-best 11.6 K/9, though he also saw his groundball rate drop below 50% for the first time (42.9%) and allowed more than a home run per inning after permitting nary a long ball in 77 appearances in the prior season. Regardless, the results have been good.
- Oliver Perez (39): The late-career renaissance has been something to see, but how long can it last? Perez owns a dominant 2.84 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 since the start of the 2018 campaign. But that was compiled over only 73 frames in 117 appearances. Right-handed hitters beat up on him last year, though that hasn’t been the case historically.
- Tony Watson (36): We were very surprised to see Watson pick up his player option to return to the Giants rather than returning to the open market last fall. He has been so solid for so long that we felt teams would overlook his 2019 struggles, which were driven largely by a jump in home-run rate. He still maintained a typical 12.7% swinging-strike rate, 5.2% walk rate, and 93.5 mph average fastball velocity. And though he is no longer elite at limiting hard contact, as he once was, Wilson was still tough to square up (84th percentile hard-hit percentage; 79th percentile exit velocity).
- Justin Wilson (33): Based upon the most basic 2019 results, Wilson is the top of the class: he worked to a 2.54 ERA. But that output came in only 39 innings and his peripherals — while solid — didn’t quite support it. Wilson gets strikeouts and groundballs, but his strikeout rate has dropped in each of the past two seasons. And he has continued to hand out too many free passes, averaging 5.2 per nine since the start of the 2017 campaign. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if Wilson emerges as one of the most-pursued arms in this group.
Looking for a Bounceback
- Brett Cecil (34): He’ll need to get back on the mound after a lost 2019 season and then make up for a brutal showing in the season prior, but perhaps there’s still hope.
- Jake McGee (34): There have always been a lot of ups and downs for McGee, who’s likely to be paid a $2MM buyout in favor of a $9MM club option unless he really bounces back strong in 2020. He did manage a 4.35 ERA last year at Coors Field, but that was probably fortunate. McGee was tagged for 2.4 homers per nine while logging a pedestrian 7.6 K/9 — well off his career peak.
- Andrew Miller (36): And that brings us to the final, and most interesting, name on this list. Once one of the game’s ultimate late-inning weapons, Miller has now turned in two-straight marginal seasons. He coughed up 1.8 long balls per nine innings last year while working to a 4.45 ERA over 54 2/3 frames. Miller’s velocity has dropped below 93 mph for the first time since he was moved to the bullpen, and he has settled in with a ~13% swinging-strike rate after topping out much higher. He still managed 11.5 K/9 in 2019, but that came with 4.5 BB/9 and the aforementioned dingers. If Miller is able to return to something like his former self, the Cards could pick up a $12MM club option rather than paying a $2.5MM buyout. That’d take a major turn of events, but it can’t be ruled out for a guy with Miller’s pedigree.
A-Rod, J.Lo Take Step Towards Compiling Bid For Mets
April 21: Rodriguez and Lopez approached Miami businessman Jorge Mas about joining their group, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), but the 57-year-old MasTec chairman declined the offer. Mas previously headed up his own group in hopes of purchasing the Marlins before the Derek Jeter/Bruce Sherman group won that bidding.
April 20: When the concept was first mentioned, it wasn’t clear whether Alex Rodriguez was seriously interested in headlining a bidding group for the Mets. But he and pop singer/fiancee Jenifer Lopez have recently taken at least one notable step towards a potential play for the franchise, Scott Soshnick of Variety reports.
Rodriguez, much like predecessor Barry Bonds, finished his playing days with one of the most impressive but deeply stained resumes in baseball history. Performance-enhancing drugs tarnished both players, though A-Rod has taken quite a different path since hanging up his spikes. With a series of major media roles, he has crafted a familiar post-PED profile.
Precisely what sort of bidding group might be compiled isn’t clear, but A-Rod and J.Lo have retained JPMorgan Chase to see about putting one together. There was never any doubt that the celebrity couple would need to participate with other, yet wealthier investors to take over the Mets. At last look, the current Wilpon family ownership group had yet to mark down its $2.6B sticker price for the organization.
It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether this story has legs — not just because of the obvious potential for gossip-rag fireworks. The Mets have had their issues over the years, but it’s awfully rare to see big-city teams hit the market. It seems all but inconceivable that the franchise value won’t take a hit in light of the coronavirus pandemic — whatever the long-term outlook, there’ll obviously be a major near-term operational shortfall — but whether and to what extent remains for the market to decide.
Minor League Baseball Issues Statement Regarding Negotiations With MLB
3:05pm: Minor League Baseball has issued the following statement in the wake of this mornings report on contraction:
Recent articles on the negotiations between MiLB and Major League Baseball (MLB) are largely inaccurate. There have been no agreements on contraction or any other issues. MiLB looks forward to continuing the good faith negotiations with MLB tomorrow as we work toward an agreement that best ensures the future of professional baseball throughout the United States and Canada.
11:04am: Minor League Baseball has resisted a contraction and realignment push since Major League Baseball launched it last fall. But the stark realities of the coronavirus pandemic have forced MiLB to accept that outcome in advance of negotiations with its big-brother league, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reports.
That’s not to say that MiLB is willing to accept the MLB plan in full. It seems the focus on the minors side is twofold: First, ensuring that some legitimate form of baseball carries on in the places where affiliated ballclubs are axed. And second, arriving at a system that provides stability and security for the long haul.
If the broad parameters of the MLB plan are indeed agreed upon, then all thirty big league clubs will end up with four affiliated apiece (120 in total). In the 42 places that would lose the chance to field a minor-league roster of players, Cooper writes, the aim is for “baseball of a reasonably high quality in an economic system that would have staying power.” Getting such assurances could force minor-league clubs to cede significant additional authority to MLB as part of the overall workout.
There’s obviously still quite a lot at play with negotiations expected to take place in earnest. You’ll certainly want to read the entire piece from Cooper to understand the full details of the present situation.
Manfred Expects 2020 Season To Resume; Spectators Still Possible?
In a memorandum issued to baseball operations employees around the game, commissioner Rob Manfred stated that he “fully anticipate[s] baseball will return this season,” per a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.
The message was delivered alongside less optimistic news: while already expected, the league has officially suspended the contracts of uniformed non-player employees and other baseball ops staffers. Many clubs have nevertheless promised salaries through at least the end of May, though not all have done so.
Manfred also acknowledged that it’s “very difficult to predict with any accuracy the timeline for resumption of our season.” The persistent message from the league and from public health officials largely remains the same: the course of the disease and broader public response and needs will largely dictate what’s possible for baseball.
It’s still notable to hear such relatively hopeful messaging from the commissioner. The league has continued to gin up potential scenarios for getting the 2020 campaign underway. The latest is a three-state possibility.
Like most of the ideas floated to this point, the latest concept would focus on delivering games on television but without spectators on hand. But it’s not yet clear that MLB is giving up entirely on hosting fans at contests at some point in 2020.
In a chat with Jack Curry of YES Network (Twitter link), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases chief Dr. Anthony Fauci contemplated a scenario in which there could possibly be some in-person attendance in 2020. Labeling in-person attendance “conceivable,” Fauci nevertheless cautioned that it’s likelier the game will only return to our screens in the near-term. Ultimately, he said, “it’s gonna be the virus that determines what the timetable is.”
It’s still largely speculative at this point, but a paying gate would certainly help the league deal with some of the thorniest issues it faces. A full-throated disagreement blossomed yesterday between the league and union over player salaries in a no-fan scenario. And legal action is brewing over the lack of refunds for 2020 tickets.
MLB Ticket Lawsuit Seeks Class Action Status
In a lawsuit filed recently in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, a pair of fans allege that MLB, its teams, and a host of ticket re-sellers have wrongly refused to refund ticket costs and associated fees relating to the postponed 2020 season. Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times are among those to cover the filing.
The would-be class representatives cover the two groups seeking relief: one is a partial season ticketholder and the other bought single-game tickets. In both cases, it seems, full or partial refunds have not been available because MLB continues to treat games as being postponed rather than cancelled.
Reflecting its attempt to achieve class certification, the suit doesn’t just go after the specific teams and ticket agencies involved in those cases. The complaint lists all thirty teams and four ticket companies: official MLB partner StubHub along with Ticketmaster, Live Nation, and Last Minute Transactions.
We are now several weeks into the scheduled 2020 MLB season with no end in sight to the shutdown. Most of the current chatter has surrounded the possibility of returning to play without fans in attendance — an outcome that would obviously warrant a refund.
But the league has yet to formally abandon hope of a full 2020 season, providing at least partial or temporary public relations and legal cover for the fact that individual fans’ funds are still sitting in the bank accounts of these large companies. Per Rogers, the eventual plan is likely “to offer credit toward tickets for 2021 if no games are played this summer.”
While these businesses are trying to work through surprising, difficult, and wholly unprecedented issues, many individuals are dealing with yet tougher times. And there’s little doubt that the money will ultimately have to be returned if the tickets can’t be honored for the 2020 season. The ESPN report does seem to indicate that the 2021 credit scenario would be presented as an alternative to a refund in the (exceedingly likely) event that games are indeed cancelled. The named defendants have yet to respond in court to the initial filing.
The lawsuit, then, is likely to spur battles over timing and other specifics — if, at least, its plaintiffs are successful at achieving class certification. There’ll surely also be a big fight over where the suit should be heard and what law will apply. As Shaikin notes, the initial pleading asserts claims arising under several uniquely consumer-protective California statutes.
Breaking Down The 2020-21 Catching Market
Teams seeking a catcher in the 2020-21 offseason will focused on one man in particular. But there are a ton of recognizable alternatives slated to reach the market as well. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd breaks down the future free agent options in today’s video.