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Trey Mancini Discusses Cancer Diagnosis, Outlook

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Trey Mancini has penned a must-read post for The Players’ Tribune in which he discusses his shocking colon cancer diagnosis and ongoing outlook. His uplifting attitude is most welcome in these difficult times.

As baseball tries to get back to the field in 2020, Mancini is sorting out the complicated logistics of treatment in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. He discloses that he has been diagnosed with Stage III cancer, which will require six months of bi-weekly chemotherapy.

As Mancini acknowledges, that timeline makes it rather unlikely he’ll suit up for the Orioles in 2020, if indeed there is a season. As he puts it, “I just want to make sure that I am physically fine before I go out there and start trying to perform again at a major league level.”

It goes without saying that Mancini’s recovery is of primary importance. He says he hopes to remain active, but he’ll first need to beat the disease before he’s able to build back toward professional athletics. Additionally, added care is warranted to ensure that Mancini does not become exposed to COVID-19, as his diagnosis and treatment put him at greater risk of serious complications.

 

It’s hard to see such a vibrant young man dealing with this kind of adversity, but Mancini’s outlook is at once hopeful and inspiring. MLBTR extends its very best wishes to Mancini and his loved ones.

Optimism Building For 2020 MLB Season

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It’s all but a foregone conclusion that fans won’t be in the seats if and when Major League Baseball holds its 2020 Opening Day. But most agree that some baseball — so long as it can be staged safely and responsibly in the midst of a global pandemic — is better than none.

There were several signs of promise today surrounding the outlook for a 2020 campaign of some kind. That’s not to say there’s a clear plan in place. Far from it, in fact. But it seems avenues are opening.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan discussed the situation at length, reporting that “nearly everyone along the decision-making continuum … has grown increasingly optimistic” of staging a season of some kind. That seems like a reasonably important broad-based sentiment, though we’re still quite a few steps away from hope converting into real, live ballgames.

Passan covers a lot of subjects in the piece, which is well worth a read. Just don’t expect any new direction in terms of how it’s all supposed to come together. That hasn’t been narrowed down in the least.

To some extent, the increased options that justify the optimism also make it hard to know what the 2020 season will look like. State and local officials will ultimately have final word on just what is possible. There’s some good news on that front also.

New York governor Andrew Cuomo indicated today that he sees a path to baseball being played in New York City this summer, as the Associated Press reports (via WTOP News). Of course, at the moment there’s no expectation that spectators would be on hand, but seeing games in Queens and the Bronx would nevertheless be an inspiring sight given the brutal toll of the coronavirus in the country’s biggest city.

It’s much the same situation in Chicago, home of another pair of MLB franchises, as Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports Chicago writes. Mayor Lori Lightfoot says that the city has contemplated the return of professional sports. While it’s nowhere near happening, she sounded a generally hopeful tone: “But can I envision a world where baseball might return to Chicago this summer? Yes. Is it likely to be without fans? Probably.”

Even if the logistics are lined up, there’s still the matter of getting the league and players on the same page. The sides drew up and signed a formal agreement, but immediately came to disagree on what it means for player salaries if games are staged without fans. The union says the late-March agreement establishes that players must be paid on a full pro rata basis for any games, regardless whether anybody paid to sit in the stands.

Passan provides some specific language that bears upon the assessment of that subject. Unfortunately, the clauses cited seemingly confirm that there’s some ambiguity in the contract on this point. As we explored recently, it’s bizarre to see a new and unnecessary layer of complication added through this oddly framed document, the interpretation of which could now become a major issue bearing upon the ability to resume play and labor relations more generally.

Posey & Perez(es) Lead 2021-22 Free Agent Catching Market

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It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of certain players — specifically, catchers — who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops in that class. The backstops don’t feature that kind of unbounded earning power. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many catchers set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 catching market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022; alphabetical order within category):

Top of the Class

  • Salvador Perez (32): One of the game’s true workhorses behind the dish, Perez missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery. But the respite could conceivably enhance his long-term outlook after averaging 138 games annually over the prior six seasons. Perez’s value is a matter of quite some disagreement. Baseball Prospectus catching grades don’t love his work behind the dish and he’s a roughly average hitter whose best attribute (power) may lead some to overrate his abilities on offense. Fangraphs values his total career contribution at an underwhelming 10 WAR. Per Baseball-Reference’s measures, which give far more credence to Perez’s efforts with the glove, it’s a far more robust 22.1 WAR.
  • Buster Posey (35): It’s tough to imagine the Giants will end up exercising a $22MM club option rather than allowing Posey to test the open market with a $3MM buyout on his way out. Posey is a historically important member of the San Francisco organization, but there’s hope his eventual replacement (Joey Bart) is already nearing the majors. More importantly, the decline has been precipitous for the once-great Posey. Long a well-above-average hitter, he drooped in 2018 and fell off a cliff last year, when he posted a .257/.320/.368 slash line. The good news here is that Posey remains a high-quality performer behind the dish. And he may have been unlucky at the plate; Statcast credits him with a .315 xwOBA but he managed only a .298 wOBA. Given the talent level, it’s too soon to rule out a late-career surge.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Roberto Perez (33): If the Indians end up picking up their cheap option over Perez for 2021, he’d be on track to hit free agency in the ensuing winter. If he can keep up last year’s league-average offensive output, the defensive standout might have a run of success as a near-everyday option.
  • Wilson Ramos (34): Another player covered by a club option in 2021, Ramos is a bat-first backstop who seems destined for an eventual return to the American League for the later stage of his career. He graded poorly in the field in 2019, when he carried a big workload for the Mets, but he has historically fared rather well with the glove. Durability remains an ongoing issue as well.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Tucker Barnhart (31): The Reds will have to decide between a $7.5MM club option and $500K buyout. Barnhart is a solid performer behind the plate and could function well as a half-time player for some time to come. The switch-hitter has a palatable 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
  • Travis d’Arnaud (33): A strong bounceback 2019 season earned d’Arnaud a two-year deal with the Braves. He isn’t likely to turn into a full everyday receiver, having only once topped four hundred plate appearances in a season.
  • Yan Gomes (34): While he’s a steady hand in the field, Gomes wasn’t able to match his solid 2018 offensive work in the 2019 season. The Nats still liked him well enough as a timeshare guy to offer a two-year pact.
  • Martin Maldonado (35): The bat is never going to be a strength, but Maldonado is a trusted hand. He keeps finding himself in demand at the trade deadline.
  • Manny Pina (34): Pina is a somewhat underappreciated contributor. He performs well with the mask on and doesn’t hurt too much on offense, where he’s a career 90 wRC+ performer.

What Might A Max Scherzer Extension Look Like?

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The last time he tried to sort out a new contract with his existing team, things didn’t exactly work out as hoped. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth it for the Nationals to try … after all, Max Scherzer was once open to doing a contract with the Tigers. And when he addressed the topic this spring, Scherzer expressed some degree of openness … though he also indicated he has no interest in pushing the topic himself with two seasons remaining on his old free agent pact.

[MLBTR on YouTube: What If Max Scherzer Stayed A Tiger?]

It’s worth wondering whether a deal might actually make sense for both Scherzer and the Nationals. Committing in advance to a pitcher is always cause for some trepidation, all the more so at the prices and ages at issue here. But … well, let’s just say I won’t be the one to ask the famously intense hurler whether he’s still up to the rigors of the sport.

Scherzer has mostly been an exceptionally durable pitcher, though his decade-long string of 30+ starts finally ended in 2019. He ran into some ailments in the postseason and experienced minor health issues this spring. There’s not much cause for worry, but it’s still a reminder of baseball mortality. Many great players have run into late-career roadblocks relatively suddenly.

Let’s be honest, though: Scherzer is still one of the very best in the business. While he missed five starts last season, he still provided 172 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball. And he turned in a league-leading, career-low 2.45 FIP by generating 12.7 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. His 2.88 xFIP matches his lowest mark since coming to D.C. Scherzer posted a career-best 16.3% swinging-strike rate while maintaining a 95.2 mph average four-seamer — tied for a personal high.

If Scherzer isn’t the single best pitcher in baseball, it’s only because Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole have elevated their own games that much more. There is one other guy who deserves mention, though, when considering the very top starters over the past two seasons. Like Scherzer, this Justin Verlander fella has only increased his output since leaving the Tigers, where they both once starred … and he isn’t exactly a spring chicken.

Verlander represents the key comp when considering a potential Scherzer extension. His new deal — which was inked last spring and was to go into effect for the 2020 season — represents a highly relevant bit of contractual precedent. At two years and $66MM, the deal provides Verlander with eye-popping money at quite an advanced stage of his career: his age-37 and 38 seasons. You can easily argue that it’s still a reasonably team-friendly rate of pay.

That pact was entered just before the start of the 2019 season, which was to be Verlander’s walk year. There weren’t any performance-based discounts: He was coming off of a doozy of a campaign in which he racked up 214 innings of 2.52 ERA ball with dominant peripherals and rising swinging-strike numbers. But Verlander quite understandably couldn’t pry loose both a premium average annual value and an overly lengthy commitment from the Astros.

Like Verlander, Scherzer is slated to reach free agency ahead of his age-37 campaign. To be fair, though, the latter will hit the open market at a bit more advanced age than the former would’ve. Scherzer turned 35 late last July, so while 2020 is designated his age-35 season, he’s actually closer in age right now to where Verlander was (he had just turned 36) when he inked his deal. But Scherzer is two full seasons away from free agency, rather than one, as was JV.

You have to think the Nationals would jump at the opportunity to tack on two years to Scherzer’s deal at the Verlander rate. There was no indication that the Nats and Scherzer were going to reach agreement before Spring Training, so perhaps this is a conversation for the 2020-21 offseason. More will be known then, especially if the team gets to watch its staff co-ace work in a truncated 2020 campaign. There’s less risk committing later, of course. But leverage will also be lost in the meantime.

Honestly, it might be worth making a run at a deal once the contract freeze is lifted; perhaps there were even some talks beforehand that never reached the public eye. While agent Scott Boras isn’t fond of deals that keep his players from the open market, he has worked extensively with Nationals ownership — including on two massive contracts with the team’s other top starter, Stephen Strasburg, one of which was an extension. Sorting something out to keep Max in D.C. through the end of his career would not only mean locking in another part of the team’s highly paid, three-headed pitching monster (Patrick Corbin being the other), but might ensure that Scherzer becomes the first player to don a Nationals cap in Cooperstown. (He’s not a sure thing just yet, but isn’t far from locking down future admission.)

Thing is: would Scherzer really be willing to settle for a two-year deal, even at a sum that tops Verlander by a bit? Or would he hold out for an even larger and/or longer deal? Cole just took home a $36MM AAV on his monster contract with the Yankees. Perhaps Mad Max — who has earned that appellation through unremitting competitiveness — would want to be paid at or above that level on an annual basis. Maybe he’d find it limiting to suggest he’s only worthy of a two-year extension. Scherzer certainly doesn’t seem like the type to settle for something fair and plan ahead for hanging up his spikes. Come to think of it, he may not be that interested in a deal at all. He’s obviously loaded already, so this wouldn’t be life-changing cash (not that it was for Verlander, needless to say). Scherzer might rather wait to return to free agency … unless, at least, the Nats proved willing to go absolutely wild with an offer to keep him without the need to top other bids. Could it take three guaranteed years? Four?!

It’s anyone’s guess what his personal view is, not to mention that of Boras, but it’s unlikely that it would make a ton of sense for the Nationals to over-commit. The team already placed a huge bet on Strasburg and will be paying Corbin major money through 2024, so there’s a lot of rotation cash on the books already. While Scherzer’s a living legend who’s arguably just as good now as ever before, the baseball reaper ultimately comes for all the great ones. The only risks are paying him a bit more or losing him free agency. Then again, with a pitcher as special Scherzer, the thought of a departure may be enough to spur the Nationals to enter completely new contractual terrain to forestall that possibility.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Starting Pitchers

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen, center fielders, corner outfielders, and lefty and righty relievers who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Now, we’ll cover the starting pitchers (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).

Top of the Class

  • Trevor Bauer (30): An front-of-the-rotation performer in 2018, Bauer managed only a 4.48 ERA in his 213 frames last year while allowing home runs at about three times the rate he did in the season prior. If you value Bauer somewhere in between, he’s still a high-quality performer. The fact that he’s steadfastly claiming interest only in one-year agreements should enhance his appeal to some organizations.
  • Mike Minor (33): The past health issues haven’t been a concern of late for the southpaw, who last year topped two hundred frames and posted a 3.59 ERA. His fielding-independent pitching numbers weren’t quite as impressive, but at worst Minor figures to be a quality mid-rotation target.
  • Jake Odorizzi (31): He somewhat surprisingly took the qualifying offer after a very strong 2019 showing, but that could still work to Odorizzi’s benefit. He won’t be dragged down by draft compensation and could be the top-available arm. Odorizzi put up a 3.51 ERA last year, though he was only asked to work 159 frames over thirty starts.
  • Jose Quintana (32): The results weren’t there in 2019, as Quintana limped to a 4.68 ERA. But he did manage a 3.80 FIP, so if you believe in his ability to keep the ball in the yard even while others around the game can’t, then perhaps there’s still a good bit left in the tank. Quintana has a long track record of success, so the market could buy into a rebound if he’s able to show it.
  • Robbie Ray (29): The upside here is tremendous with Ray’s propensity for generating whiffs. But he was also more prone to dole out free passes and surrender long balls than the other members of this group. Ray has been pretty durable and has a strong history of strikeouts. Given his age, he probably has the greatest earning upside of any starter in an underwhelming overall market.
  • Marcus Stroman (30): While his strikeout numbers don’t jump off the page, Stroman generates a lot of grounders and has consistently turned in palatable home run tallies. He seems like a good bet for a strong, four-year deal, even if he’s unlikely to take down a monster contract.
  • Masahiro Tanaka (32): Tanaka’s swinging-strike rate dropped to 10.7% in 2019 after a two-season surge. But he has had success at that level previously and continues to avoid walks and generate strong groundball numbers. It’s tough to imagine Tanaka again producing the kind of sparkling numbers he did early in his tenure with the Yankees, but he could be a major factor on the market.

Upside Aplenty

  • James Paxton (32): The big lefty is healing while everyone else waits for baseball to get started. He’s arguably the most talented pitcher on this year’s market and could still command a big payday if he hits the ground running when he returns.
  • Garrett Richards (33): It’s much the same story for Richards as for Paxton. He made it back to the majors briefly in 2019 so should be a full go for the 2020 season. It has been a long time since he has managed a complete season, but there’s a tremendous established ceiling.
  • Kevin Gausman (30): Could there still be some breakout potential here? Gausman didn’t have a successful 2019 by most measures, but he did jump up to a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and 10.0 K/9 — both career-high levels. He posted an ugly 5.72 ERA, but ERA estimators were rather more optimistic as to the value of his contributions (3.98 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA).
  • Michael Wacha (29): We’ve already seen Wacha turn in quality MLB campaigns from a rotation and he’s still fairly young, so he could be an interesting name to watch if he’s able to author a bounceback campaign.
  • Taijuan Walker (28): It’s not promising that the Diamondbacks elected to cut bait after watching Walker return from Tommy John surgery. But he has had plenty of time to rest and is reputedly motivated in his return to the Mariners.
  • Alex Wood (30): He has throw 839 innings of 3.40 ERA ball in the majors with metrics to match (3.49 FIP/3.53 xFIP/3.70 SIERA), so there’s no denying Wood’s track record.

Established Veterans

  • Brett Anderson (33): When he takes the mound in 2020, it’ll be a dozen straight seasons of some MLB action. Despite the many injuries and ups and downs, Anderson is still a useful, groundball-oriented starter.
  • Chase Anderson (33): If he’s good enough to be interesting, the Blue Jays will pick up their $9.5MM club option ($500K buyout).
  • Chris Archer (32): Likewise, Archer will probably either be a reclamation project or an easy choice to retain on a $11MM club option ($250K buyout).
  • Jake Arrieta (35): We’re now three full seasons into obvious decline for Arrieta, but he’s still a factor regardless and could yet have a late-career renaissance of sorts.
  • Homer Bailey (35): His deal with the Reds didn’t work out at all, but Bailey settled in last year as a sturdy presence.
  • Tyler Chatwood (31): He has found more success of late in the bullpen than as a starter, with his velo trending up in shorter stints, but who knows what the future holds?
  • Anthony DeSclafani (31): He quietly turned in a strong rebound campaign in 2019, spinning 166 2/3 innings of 3.89 ERA pitching with 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.
  • Mike Fiers (36): Though ERA estimators think it’s a mirage, Fiers carries a 3.73 ERA in 356 2/3 frames over the past two seasons.
  • Gio Gonzalez (35): Gio had a bit of a quiet resurgence last year. If he can carry that forward, the White Sox can keep him for $7MM (or pay a $500K buyout).
  • Cole Hamels (37): Hamels is taking things one year at a time. We’ll see how he bounces back from an injury that was going to take away a big chunk of the 2020 season before it was paused.
  • J.A. Happ (38): We may end up debating Hamels and Happ until one or both finally decide to hang ’em up.
  • Rich Hill (41): Another venerable southpaw, Hill is dead set on returning to glory with the Twins and remains a highly talented hurler when he’s able to take the bump.
  • Merrill Kelly (32): If he’s not good enough for the D-Backs to pick up with a $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout), we likely won’t be featuring him much in free agency.
  • Corey Kluber (35): The Rangers are hoping he’s a slam dunk on a $17.5MM club option; if not, we’ll be talking about a bounceback candidate.
  • Mike Leake (33): He’ll take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door. When last he hit the open market, Leake’s appeal was in his youth. Now, he has a lot to show in his platform season.
  • Jon Lester (37): Could this be the final run or will Lester keep going?
  • Charlie Morton (37): As with Kluber … if he’s what his team expects, his option (in this case, a floating-value vesting/club option) will be exercised.
  • Jimmy Nelson (32): The Dodgers hold a cheap club option, but if he throws enough innings it’ll convert to a mutual option that could allow Nelson to revisit the market.
  • Ivan Nova (34): Steady innings, we all need ’em.
  • Martin Perez (30): The Red Sox went after the southpaw and made sure they’d keep the upside ($6.25MM club option) if he works out.
  • Rick Porcello (32): If he can turn things back around with the Mets, Porcello could be a candidate for a multi-year deal.
  • Tyson Ross (34): We’re well past wondering whether Ross can regain his earlier-career form, but perhaps he could still settle in as a useful veteran swingman.
  • Jeff Samardzija (36): Samardzija rather quietly turned in 181 1/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball last year for the Giants. The peripherals didn’t exactly suggest he’s in the middle of a Verlander-like late-career run, but Shark could again be a factor.
  • Anibal Sanchez (37): Speaking of resurgent hurler, Sanchez will either get a $2MM buyout or pitch again in D.C. on a $12MM club option.
  • Drew Smyly (32): Still capable of getting strikeouts and somehow rather youthful, Smyly may yet have another run in his left arm.
  • Jordan Zimmermann (35): Unfortunately, there’s really no sugar-coating Zimmermann’s miserable tenure in Detroit.

Potential 2020-21 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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Let’s be honest right up front: we don’t know what the qualifying offer system will look like for the 2020-21 offseason. It’s in the CBA, sure, but economic realities could require some rather extensive renegotiation — or, due to vast changes in key underlying information points, completely change what we think we know about the market for baseball players. But we’re not going to offer any guesses on those aspects of the future. As we learn more about how drastically the 2020 season will ultimately be curtailed, and what the means for 2021 and beyond, we’ll adjust as best we can.

(We also don’t yet know the value of the QO. It’s set by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the game.)

Instead, in this post, we’re going to look forward at the 2020-21 offseason with something of a presumption of relative normalcy. We aren’t aiming for any precision — just trying to create a useful starting point that we can revisit as the situation develops, both economically and on the field (if indeed MLB makes it back). Here’s a list of the pending free agents who may be candidates to receive a qualifying offer.

Slam Dunks

  • Mookie Betts (OF, Dodgers): One of the game’s very best players, Betts is sure to receive a QO.
  • J.T. Realmuto (C, Phillies): Barring a total collapse, Realmuto will receive and reject a qualifying offer.
  • Marcus Semien (SS, Athletics): After an MVP-level showing in 2019, the expectation is that Semien will be one of the top players on the market this fall. Even if he steps back a fair bit at the plate, it’s tough to imagine he won’t be worth a qualifying offer.
  • George Springer (OF, Astros): Springer is an immensely productive offensive performer and can play anywhere in the outfield.

Other Top Candidates

  • Trevor Bauer (SP, Reds): This could go either way, but the Reds gave up big value last summer on the assumption that Bauer would easily be worthy of a QO. It’ll be fun to see how it unfolds given Bauer’s oft-state determination to play out his career on one-year deals.
  • Michael Brantley (OF/DH, Astros): He has been healthy and quite productive for the past two seasons.
  • Ken Giles (RP, Blue Jays): If he can turn in a second-straight star performance in Toronto, Giles would be a candidate for a major, long-term free agent contract.
  • Didi Gregorius (SS, Phillies): If he bounces back as the Phillies hope, it’ll be an easy to call. If there’s no 2020 season, he’ll be allowed to return to free agency without encumbrance.
  • Liam Hendriks (RP, Athletics): It’d be a big bet for a guy with this back story, but Hendriks was elite in 2019 and could warrant a QO if he repeats.
  • DJ LeMahieu (2B, Yankees): Based on his surprising 2019 MVP-caliber season, DJLM would get a QO if the Yanks were forced to decide right now. But they have the luxury of watching the 2020 season, when he’ll try to prove he can maintain that new level of output.
  • Mike Minor (SP, Rangers): Two strong seasons in Texas make Minor an easy bet on a one-year arrangement, but he’ll be watched closely in 2020.
  • James Paxton (SP, Yankees): The delay to the season has given Paxton time to overcome his latest injury. He has such a high established ceiling that he won’t have to show all that much to be worthy of a QO … so long as he ends 2020 in good health.
  • Jose Quintana (SP, Cubs): The trend isn’t promising, but a bounceback 2020 could put Q back on track for a QO.
  • Robbie Ray (SP, Diamondbacks): It’s possible that Ray will end up being the top starter on the market. Odds are he’ll turn down a QO on his way out the door in Arizona.
  • Garrett Richards (SP, Padres): With ace-like stuff, a resurgent Richards could easily warrant a qualifying offer … though there’s also an obvious downside scenario here.
  • Andrelton Simmons (SS, Angels): Some might disagree with me, but I expect Simmons to get a QO from the Los Angeles organization even if he’s a slightly below-average hitter in 2020. The glove is exceptional.
  • Marcus Stroman (SP, Mets): Barring injury or a total downturn, there’s little question the productive starter is going to warrant a QO.
  • Masahiro Tanaka (SP, Yankees): You hate to rule out a guy with this talent level, even if he hasn’t shown that level of capability of late.
  • Kirby Yates (RP, Padres): We can debate how much money and how long a commitment you ought to make to an aging relief pitcher, but Yates has been one of the game’s very best and is easily worthy of a qualifying offer-level salary on a single-season pact.

Options/Opt-Outs

  • Nick Castellanos (OF, Reds): If he plays well enough to opt out after year one, a qualifying offer would be likely.
  • J.D. Martinez (OF/DH, Red Sox): Martinez can opt out of the last two years of his deal. Should he do so, he’d be sure to decline a qualifying offer, so the Boston org would likely issue it.
  • Charlie Morton (SP, Rays): It was rather surprising when Morton didn’t get a QO on his way out the door in Houston. Anything close to his 2019 output would again make him a strong candidate, even at relatively advanced age. But if he’s that good and healthy again, he’ll trigger a $15MM vesting option. (Even if it doesn’t go into effect automatically, the Rays will be able to pick it up as a club option at that price — or a lower number, depending upon time spent on the injured list).
  • Giancarlo Stanton (OF, Yankees): On the off chance he has such an immense season that he opts out of the $200+ million left on his deal … well, no doubt the Yanks would dangle a qualifying offer.

Other Possibilities

If teams had to make the call right now, I don’t think any of these players would get real consideration for a qualifying offer. But they’re the top possibilities beyond those considered in more detail above …

  • Dellin Betances (RP, Mets): It doesn’t take much imagination to understand how a QO could happen here.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, Red Sox): It’s fairly unlikely, but Bradley has enough of a track record in the field that he could warrant a QO if he can return to the offensive output he provided 4-5 years ago.
  • Sean Doolittle (RP, Nationals): It’ll take a real bounce back to his prior effectiveness for the excellent lefty to warrant a qualifying offer.
  • Kevin Gausman (SP, Giants): While he’s nowhere near a QO candidate after a few tough seasons, Gausman is only 29 and has big-time pedigree.
  • Yuli Gurriel (1B, Astros): The odds of a near-40 first baseman getting a qualifying offer aren’t high, but Gurriel did hit quite well last year.
  • Cole Hamels (SP, Braves): The Atlanta org promised him $18MM this past winter, so a QO can’t be ruled out.
  • Keone Kela (RP, Pirates): Could he elevate his game as the Bucs’ closer?
  • Tommy La Stella (INF, Angels): Who’s to say he can’t keep the 2019 productivity rolling? It’s likelier he’ll end up reaching the market without a qualifying offer, but it’s at least possible to imagine.
  • Joc Pederson (OF, Dodgers): Unlikely for a platoon bat, but Pederson has been a consistent power source.
  • Blake Treinen (RP, Dodgers): See Betances.
  • Jonathan Villar (INF/OF, Marlins): He’s young enough that a QO can’t be ruled out if he turns in another ~4 WAR season.
  • Brandon Workman (RP, Red Sox): If he repeats 2019, it’s possible … but the prior track record suggests cause for skepticism.
  • Alex Wood (SP, Dodgers): The lefty was really good for quite some time before running into injury troubles last year.

Ineligible Due To Prior QO

How Did The A’s End Up With Baseball’s Most Productive Reliever?

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Okay, I’m sure some will take umbrage with the title here. But I chose my words pretty carefully. Liam Hendriks probably wasn’t baseball’s most effective reliever in 2019. He almost assuredly isn’t its best from a true-talent perspective. And the Aussie certainly isn’t its most valuable when it comes to control rights and contracts. (He’ll be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season.)

But … Hendriks did lead Major League Baseball’s bullpen denizens with a whopping 3.8 fWAR last year … the loftiest single-season tally since Eric Gagne’s magical 2003 effort. (It’s 3.9 if you include his two “opener” outings.) Hendriks was also worth 3.5 rWAR, so it wasn’t just a quirk of the FIP-based Fangraphs tabulations. Prefer RA9 WAR? He was even more dominant.

But, you may protest, wins above replacement isn’t the best measure of a reliever. That’s no doubt true. The precise tabulations don’t really matter for our purposes here. Hendriks was in part able to out-WAR his fellow relievers because he threw so many innings — 85 in 75 appearances, one of the heaviest workloads in the game — but that just makes things more impressive. He ranked among the leaders in most major measures of effectiveness as well … including fielding-independent pitching measures FIP (2nd), xFIP (18th), and SIERA (5th).

This showing was exceedingly impressive, no matter the details. It was also … decidedly not consistent with Hendriks’s prior efforts on an MLB mound. Entering the 2019 season, his big league stat sheet reflected 406 innings of 4.72 ERA pitching.

How on earth did we get here?

We can mostly ignore the earliest stage of his career, when Hendriks — once a prospect of some note with the Twins — failed to make it as a starter. The Minnesota organization cut bait after 156 innings of 6.06 ERA pitching. Hendriks ultimately landed with the Blue Jays after a round of offseason waiver-wire musical chairs in the 2013-14 offseason. He first went from the Twins to the Cubs after the Minnesota org signed Phil Hughes. The Orioles prevented the Cubs from slipping Hendriks through waivers but cut him loose when they inked Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Toronto organization only gave Hendriks a few outings during the ensuing 2014 season before sending him to the Royals in a deal for Danny Valencia. Hendriks did have good Triple-A numbers that year. When the Royals needed 40-man space in the ensuing offseason, the Jays stepped back in and grabbed Hendriks back in a DFA limbo swap.

Finally, the stage was set for success. Hendriks moved into the bullpen in Toronto … and immediately exhibited a huge uptick in velocity. He was sitting over 95 mph in a relief capacity and having much more success at generating swings and misses. In 2015, Hendriks turned in 64 2/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He didn’t allow many home runs (0.4 per nine) and even generated a strong 46.3% groundball rate (the only time he has ticked up in that department).

The Blue Jays decided to cash in at this point, shipping Hendriks to Oakland in exchange for steady veteran swingman Jesse Chavez. He continued the strong work for the most part. While his ERA trickled north, Hendriks still carried good peripherals and gave the A’s a lot of useful innings in his first two campaigns. Taking his 2015-17 efforts as a whole, Hendriks was a notable contributor: he threw between 64 and 64 2/3 frames in each season while compiling a 3.63 cumulative ERA and a total of 3.9 fWAR (precisely the tally he managed in the 2019 season alone).

Before Hendriks could break out, he had to go through the roughest patch since his time as a starter. He struggled with a groin injury and threw eleven terrible innings before being dumped to make way for Edwin Jackson. Hendriks sailed through waivers and could’ve elected free agency, but decided to stay with the A’s since doing otherwise would’ve meant giving up the remainder of his $1.9MM arbitration salary.

Expectations were low when the A’s unceremoniously brought Hendriks back onto the MLB roster for the stretch run with the September active roster expansion. But he had transformed himself while away and the results were immediately apparent — at both Triple-A (43:4 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings) and the big leagues (two earned runs, 10:3 K/BB in 13 innings). What changed? As Rian Watt of Fangraphs wrote recently, A’s pitching coach Scott Emerson credits Hendriks for having “transformed his body” and with it his “mindset” and “approach” during his demotion. Oh, and Hendriks added velocity — it was apparent late in 2018 and continued in 2019 — and figured out a better means of locating his curve to complement the heat.

That good old-fashioned hard work has served Hendriks well in the past; he credited strength training and clean living for his original, pre-2015 breakout. But this time he moved into much more exclusive territory, delivering a 96.8 mph average fastball and generating a big 17.0% swinging-strike. Hendriks ended up fifth among all relievers with 32.0% K%-BB%.

Remarkably, even as the A’s watched Blake Treinen fall from his perch (a 3.6 fWAR 2018 season), they were able to turn over the ninth inning to a similarly dominant hurler. Hendriks ended up locking up 25 saves for Oakland last year. He’s earning a reasonable $5.3MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — which will actually be his tenth consecutive season of MLB action, owing to all the ups and downs over the years.

As for the future, we’ll have to see whether Hendriks can keep this going. But he only turned 31 in February, so he could have many good seasons ahead.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Judge, Cobb

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Here’s the latest chatter from the AL East …

  • So, that whole Red Sox sign-stealing saga is over with now … right? Not entirely, as Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic write (subscription link). The determinations of commissioner Rob Manfred create quite a few questions — not least of which involving his decision to focus the brunt of his punitive power on one Red Sox employee (replay operator J.T. Watkins). Manfred’s actions haven’t sated MLBTR readers, at least, according to the early results of our poll on the punishments. Perhaps the most interesting issue, from a broader perspective, involves the league’s responsibility for managing all this. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom puts it: “I also think structurally we ought to do everything we can to make sure that confusion can’t occur and that these aspects of our game are beyond reproach.” Another way to frame the matter: the rules and enforcement regime needs to be set up to ensure results rather than dealing with fallout on an ad hoc basis.
  • It seemed the Yankees were going to spend the early part of the 2020 season dealing with another odd slate of injuries before the season went on pause. Now that star outfielder Aaron Judge has had plenty of time to figure out what was bothering him (rib stress fracture) and to recuperate … might that be avoided? MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that Judge is working out at the Yankees’ spring complex and taking his time to avoid any unnecessary complications. Judge says he expects to be ready for “doing a little more here in about a week or two,” at which point he can hopefully begin building towards baseball readiness. There’s still nothing close to a clear starting point for the 2020 season, so there’s obviously no rush.
  • Alex Cobb’s signing is one of several big-contract misfires that have hamstrung the Orioles over the years. But he had seemingly fully recovered from the hip problem that plagued him last year, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza writes. Cobb had a rough 2018 season and made only three starts last year, but there’s still time for the 32-year-old to provide at least some value. The best-case scenario probably would’ve been a bounce back during the first half of the 2020 season, potentially setting the stage for a mid-summer deal. Perhaps now the O’s will end up attempting to move Cobb — who’s owed $14MM in 2020 and $15MM in 2021 — over the ensuing offseason, depending upon what (if anything) he’s able to show this year.

Latest On Potential Sale Of Mets

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Even as a global pandemic rages, threatening the 2020 MLB season and leaving a murky economic outlook for the game of baseball, the Wilpon family continues to pursue a sale of the Mets. Indeed, it seems the desire has only increased since the collapse of a deal earlier this year with minority owner Steve Cohen.

The Wilpons would surely like to be able to reanimate that agreement, which crumbled just before the scope of the coronavirus crisis became evident. Now, as Thornton McEnery and Josh Kosman of the New York Post report, the Mets are feeling the pinch of the shutdown with the revenue spigot turned off.

Despite that apparent motivation, the Wilpon family isn’t willing to part with the profitable SNY sports network in the deal, per the report. That guaranteed cash flow would obviously be of particular interest under the circumstances, though that’s also the motivation for keeping it.

The Wilpons have reportedly set a $2.6B asking price — without the franchise control strings that had been involved in the Cohen agreement but also sans SNY. Most chatter suggests that’s now a fanciful figure under the dire economic circumstances, though as ever the market will provide the answer.

There’s even now some banter around the idea that Alex Rodriguez and fiancee Jenifer Lopez could benefit from the Wilpons’ tough spot. The celebrity duo seems to be taking serious steps towards a real bid. The Post reports that they could team up with former Marlins bidder Wayne Rothbaum to land the New York franchise. It’s anyone’s guess how this situation will develop over the coming weeks, but the stage is obviously set for a rather interesting process with quite the cast of characters.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relievers

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen, center fielders, corner outfielders, and lefty relievers who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Now we’re on to the right-handed relievers (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).

Top of the Class

All four of these hurlers ranked in the top-ten leaguewide in fWAR in 2019. But can they all repeat that showing in their platform seasons?

  • Ken Giles (30): There have been some ups and downs, to say the least, but Giles was a beast again in 2019. He worked through some arm issues and spun 53 frames of 1.87 ERA ball with 14.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. And he’s younger than the other major options.
  • Liam Hendriks (32): Dropped from the MLB roster in 2019, Hendriks emerged as … arguably the game’s best reliever last year. He was not only exceptionally dominant but did it over a hefty 83-inning workload.
  • Brandon Workman (32): Ramping up his curveball usage sure did work out. Workman broke out with a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings. While walks (5.7 per nine) pose a concern, he only allowed one home run all season long, generated a 51.1% groundball rate, and produced 13.1 K/9 despite a less-than-astronomical 12.7% swinging-strike rate.
  • Kirby Yates (34): Think some of those above numbers popped? How about these: 1.19 ERA, 15.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 47.9% groundball rate, 0.30 HR/9. Yates was an animal in 2019 and has a few seasons of proof that he is very hard to square up — if you can make contact at all. He’s the odds-on favorite to be the top free agent target (though Giles arguably has the most earning upside given his age).

Upside Plays

It’s possible any or all of these three could be big-time open-market targets … but each has much to prove in 2020.

  • Dellin Betances (33): If he bounces back to his pre-injury form, Betances will take a $3MM buyout from the Mets and head back to free agency in search of the major deal he had hoped to pursue the last time. His ceiling on the mound is about as high as any reliever in baseball.
  • Blake Treinen (33): The stuff is absolutely monstrous and Treinen made it play in a huge 2018 season. But he stepped back last year and has had a lot of trouble with consistency over time. The Dodgers placed a pretty big bet on his ability to put it all back together.
  • Keone Kela (28): He has consistently produced double-digit K/9 rates and ran up a 2.12 ERA in 29 2/3 innings last year. There’s a clear path to ninth-inning responsibilities in Pittsburgh and Kela is pretty young. Could he fully emerge in 2020?

Certified Closers

But are the certifications out of date? All of the players listed in this section have more than one hundred career saves, though odds are most won’t be considered first-option closers in the 2020-21 offseason.

  • Alex Colome (32): You can’t argue with thirty saves and 61 innings of 2.80 ERA ball. But Colome’s 2019 peripherals (8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 45.2% groundball rate) weren’t nearly as exciting.
  • Wade Davis (35): Davis is looking to bounce back after an absolutely brutal 2019 season. His $15MM mutual option would convert to a player option if he finishes thirty games … so the Rockies might be wise to utilize recently extended hurler Scott Oberg in the 9th (if they weren’t already so inclined).
  • Mark Melancon (36): He threw well enough to get the value-focused Braves to take over the back end of his hefty free agent contract, so obviously the veteran still has some gas in the tank. He was tough to take deep and ran up a big 62.1% groundball rate last year while averaging better than a strikeout per nine.
  • David Robertson (36): Still working back from Tommy John surgery, Robertson is likely to be sent back to the open market with a $2MM buyout rather than playing on a $12MM club option for the Phillies. Robertson has been very good for a very long time, with a lifetime 2.90 ERA in 663 2/3 innings.
  • Steve Cishek (35): Though his days as a ninth-inning stalwart are probably over, Cishek is still a quality hurler and the experience doesn’t hurt. He could end up remaining with the White Sox ($6.75MM club option, $750K buyout) if he turns in a strong campaign.
  • Sergio Romo (38): Here’s another established vet who could remain with his current team (Twins) via club option ($5MM; $250K buyout).
  • Joakim Soria (37): The results weren’t there in 2019, but Soria still ran up 10.3 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. He still throws as hard as ever and generated swinging-strikes at a rate (13.1%) above his career average.
  • Fernando Rodney (44): Are you going to bet against Rodney launching arrows into his mid-forties? I didn’t think so.

Established Setup Options

  • Pedro Baez (33): He has been a steady presence for the Dodgers, spinning 339 innings of 3.03 ERA ball since the start of the 2014 season.
  • Jesse Chavez (37): Things didn’t go well last year but Chavez will have a chance to bounce back in the final season of his deal with the Rangers.
  • Tyler Clippard (36): Clipp seemed on the decline before turning things back on. He was good for 62 innings of 2.90 ERA ball last year.
  • Chris Devenski (30): He’ll need to tamp down on the long balls (1.7 per nine in each of the past two seasons) in order to rediscover his early-career, sub-3.00 ERA form.
  • Shane Greene (32): Though he blossomed as a closer early in 2019, Greene struggled in the second half with the Braves and lost the ninth to Melancon. As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.
  • Kelvin Herrera (31): If he can rediscover his form the White Sox could pick up a $10MM club/vesting option rather than paying a $1MM buyout, but Herrera has a long ways to go after a brutal 2019.
  • Yoshihisa Hirano (37): Though he ramped up his strikeout rate, Hirano went from a 2.44 ERA debut to an ugly 4.75 ERA mark in 2019. If he can return to something like his 2018 results, the veteran Japanese hurler could have another year or two in the majors.
  • Jeremy Jeffress (33): The roller coaster has continued, as Jeffress went from a dream 2018 showing (1.29 ERA) to a rough 2019 (5.02 ERA).
  • Brandon Kintzler (36): The sinkerballer recovered from a brutal 2018 second half. If he’s able to carry forward the good work of last season, he’ll be a pretty easy pick up at a $4MM club option ($250K buyout).
  • Trevor May (31): There’s some possible upside potential here, as May has shown real strikeout capabilities since returning from Tommy John surgery and ramped up to a career-high 95.9 mph average fastball last year.
  • Brad Peacock (33): The useful swingman wasn’t at his best in 2019 but could end up featuring as an appealing volume inning contributor.
  • Yusmeiro Petit (36): He’s aging like a fine wine, with a 2.83 ERA in 267 1/3 innings since the start of his age-32 season.
  • David Phelps (34): 2019 was about getting back to full health after a Tommy John layoff. Phelps is controlled by a $4.5MM club option ($250K buyout).
  • Hector Rondon (33): Another veteran late-inning stalwart who can be controlled at a pretty low price ($4MM club option, $500K buyout), Rondon’s strikeout rate fell off quite a bit last year but he still managed a 3.71 ERA.
  • Bryan Shaw (33): After two brutal seasons, there’s almost no chance the Rockies are picking up his $9MM club/vesting option rather than paying a $2MM buyout. Shaw had experienced nothing but success before landing in Colorado, so perhaps there’s a chance he rediscovers it.
  • Pedro Strop (36): The long-time workhorse ran into hard times in 2019 but had delivered year after year of sub-3.00 ERA ball for the Cubs before that.

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