Latest On Extension Talks Between Rangers, Rougned Odor
The Rangers and second bagger Rougned Odor are tabling extension talks for the time being after failing to reach agreement, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports. Texas had offered him something on the order of Gregory Polanco‘s deal with the Pirates — i.e., around $35MM over five future seasons, with a pair of club options at the end.
That kind of deal puts real money in a player’s pocket, but obviously gives an organization immense upside — as Polanco’s own breakout has demonstrated. Both players are clients of Beverly Hills Sports Council, and it’s certainly arguable that they are similarly valuable assets as promising young talents in the 1+ service class.
But Odor evidently isn’t as motivated to get a deal done. He is still just 22 years of age, meaning he is on track to hit the free agent market at 27. Heyman says that Odor does have real interest in striking a bargain, and had made a counter-offer, but wasn’t interested in giving up the two option years to get something done.
The sides are likely to revisit the matter, per the report. Certainly, there’s no rush given that Odor is under control through 2020. But he’s obviously willing to bet on his talent, and Texas is no doubt aware that the price is likely only rising.
Odor’s on-base numbers are lagging a bit thus far in 2016, as he sits under .300 at the All-Star break, but he has mostly made up for that with some big-time pop. Over 348 plate appearances, he’s already matched last year’s 16-homer tally and owns a .491 slugging percentage. Odor has also set a career high with seven steals. Both his walk and strikeout rates are headed in the wrong direction, though, so there’s certainly room for improvement.
NL Notes: Rupp, Guerra, Kang
It’s quiet today, but baseball’s second half begins in earnest tomorrow. Over the break, a roster of American League All-Stars defeated an assortment of National Leaguers by a score of 4 to 2. Owing to one of the most confounding rules in all of sport, this means that the A.L. entrant in the World Series will own home-field advantage for the Fall Classic.
As the A.L. post-season hopefuls celebrate their victory, here’s the latest from the N.L.:
- Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com writes that a breakout first half from Cameron Rupp has made him a potential trade chip for the Phillies. While the 27-year-old comes with another four years of club control beyond the 2016 season, he represents a rare, controllable option for teams in need of offense behind the dish. A number of contenders meet that criteria, Seidman notes, listing the Indians and White Sox as a pair of clubs that have received well below-average production from their backstops this season. While the Phils needn’t feel compelled to move Rupp, GM Matt Klentak showed with the offseason Ken Giles trade that he’s willing to move assets with considerably more club control than the typical trade candidate if the right offer presents itself.
- Brewers righty Junior Guerra has been one of the game’s most remarkable stories in the first half, turning from a waiver claimee (in GM David Stearns’s first transaction) into a quality starter. As Gary D’Amato of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes, it was his discovery — and mastery — of the splitter that made him a Rookie of the Year candidate at 31 years of age. Harnessing that key offering “was a long process,” he says, explaining that he didn’t feel comfortable with it until about two years ago. Because of his age, Guerra is in a rather unique position with regard to contract rights; he also could be a more likely trade candidate than might otherwise be anticipated given his meager service time (though I didn’t feel compelled to include him in our list of potentially available starters). “Right now I’m not thinking about money,” he tells D’Amato. “I’m just thinking about working hard and providing for my family. I want to keep working hard in order to keep getting chances.” Field questions about his trade status is probably quite an unexpected luxury, but Guerra says he hopes to continue pitching in Milwaukee.
- MLB commissioner Rob Manfred says that the league won’t take any action with regard to Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang until the Chicago police have advanced their investigation into allegations of sexual assault, Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. “We are aware of the situation and are working with law enforcement,” said Manfred. “We will make a decision when we have sufficient facts as to whether application of, for example, the administrative leave provisions in the new policy are applicable.” The league had moved more swiftly to place Hector Olivera on administrative leave earlier this season, but he was arrested and charged in the immediate aftermath of the incident in question. In many ways, Kang’s situation will represent a new challenge for the commissioner’s office, who has already dealt with several cases under a still-new policy addressing domestic violence and sexual assault. This is the first case falling under the latter rubric, and also the first involving an important player whose team is involved in a post-season race.
Trade Market For Starting Pitchers
Over the coming days, we’re going to be running down the potential summer trade candidates at each position. First up: starting pitching, where it’s a true seller’s market.
The old adage that you can never have enough pitching remains as true today as ever. Just ask the Mets, who entered the year with a borderline-unfair collection of rotation talent but now appear to be in need of a fill-in piece. And New York is far from the neediest buyer. I’d list ’em all, but it’s easier just to note that only a few viable contenders — the Indians and Nationals being the obvious examples — have no real cause to look at starters.
That’s not to say that the entire remaining slate of postseason hopefuls will be chasing arms as a top priority, but there’s loads of demand. Some organizations are likely to be looking more at sturdy veterans to shore up the staff, with the Royals, Orioles, and Blue Jays among the teams that could fit that profile. Others — the Marlins, Rangers, and Red Sox come to mind — could be willing to give up a bigger return to add a quality, controllable pitcher.
Here are the trade candidates that teams like those could consider pursuing:
Top Rentals
Rich Hill (Athletics), Jeremy Hellickson (Phillies), Andrew Cashner (Padres), Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies), Jhoulys Chacin & Tim Lincecum (Angels), Jered Weaver (Angels)
- In a very thin rental class, Hill clearly stands out as the highest-performing arm. It still feels funny to be talking about him this way, given that he’s 36 and lacks a real track record, but Hill has now compiled a 2.06 ERA over his last 105 innings with 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. Teams will likely value Hill as a frontline starter, at least as a three-month asset.
- That assessment is informed by the fact that the rest of the market is so barren. Hellickson is surely next in line, and he looks to be a useful arm. But most contenders would be adding him as a solid piece to help win some games down the stretch, not because he’d upgrade their post-season rotation. Still, he’s a useful pitcher and carries a sub-4.00 ERA into the All-Star break.
- Cashner has the pedigree and the stuff to rate as a top target, but he’s still producing middling results — a 4.60 ERA and 7.6 K/9 vs. 3.4 BB/9 since the start of 2015. The right club might still bite at a chance to try harnessing his talent.
- The rest of the bunch would have been much more interesting three or four years ago. As things stand, the best that can be said is that they’re all still pitching in major league rotations. It’s hard to consider any more than gap-fillers, though De La Rosa has shown signs of late of returning to his typical form.
Controllable Arms
Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly & Chris Archer (Rays), Drew Pomeranz (Padres), Julio Teheran (Braves), Sonny Gray (Athletics), Anthony DeSclafani (Reds), Matt Shoemaker, Hector Santiago & Nick Tropeano (Angels), Patrick Corbin & Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks), Jimmy Nelson (Brewers), Tyler Chatwood (Rockies), Nathan Eovaldi & Michael Pineda (Yankees)
- As moribund as the rental market is, that only increases the intrigue surrounding the many controllable pitchers who play for non-contending clubs. Valuing these arms, and guessing which are likeliest to be dealt, is awfully complicated. We’ll largely just have to wait and see which sellers are most motivated and which pitchers are most valued by the market.
- Tampa Bay still appears in the most obvious position to deal a controllable starter. The Rays would be selling low on Moore, Smyly, and Archer, but perhaps another organization will look past their struggles in the results department and make a fair offer. Odorizzi, though, might be the likeliest to be shipped out; he owns a 3.91 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over his four years with the Rays, and is set to enter arbitration next year.
- If you’re looking for a single arm on this list that’s most likely to change hands, it may be Pomeranz. There’s an argument to be made that San Diego ought to keep the breakout southpaw for itself, but if another organization is willing to treat him like the 2.47 ERA pitcher he’s been over 102 innings thus far, the time may be right to strike a deal.
- Teheran and Gray have long been discussed as possible trade pieces, with their affordable and lengthy contract situations serving to burnish their trade value. The former has been excellent, while the latter has had a rough go thus far. Regardless, we’re not seeing clear signals that either is truly available, and it’d take a truly significant offer to produce any movement.
- Similar things could be said about the remaining pitchers from this group. To take a few examples, teams will need to bring big offers to motivate the Brewers to deal away their ample control over Nelson, convince the Reds to part with DeSclafani, or get the pitching-needy Halos to cash in Shoemaker in the midst of an interesting season. All of the players listed are plausible trade pieces in the right scenario; while none seem particularly likely to move on their own, it seems fair to expect one or two of the group to end up in a swap.
Big Contracts
Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Ervin Santana & Ricky Nolasco (Twins), Jon Niese (Pirates), Matt Garza (Brewers), CC Sabathia (Yankees)
- There have been whispers about the idea of a contender chasing Greinke, who is pitching as well as should have been expected — which is to say, not well enough to continue last year’s ridiculous pace and probably not quite to the value of his monster contract. But we’ve yet to hear any strong connection of his name to the real-world market.
- That’s not the case with regard to Santana, who has reportedly been scouted quite closely. Teams looking for a durable, back-of-the-rotation type of arm will strongly consider him, assuming the cash can be sorted out.
- Nolasco, Niese, and Garza have all coughed up over five earned per nine on the year, but each has some potential appeal. The younger Niese could be the most desirable of this bunch, as he is controllable by a club option, though Nolasco is carrying an appealing K/BB ratio.
- A resurgent Sabathia would be a pretty interesting guy to watch were it not for the fact that he’s headed toward the vesting of a whopping $25MM option for 2017.
Back-of-the-Rotation/Swingmen/Minor-League Depth
Ivan Nova (Yankees), Dan Straily (Reds), Tommy Milone (Twins), Jesse Hahn & Nick Tepesch (Athletics), Lucas Harrell (Braves), Wily Peralta (Brewers), Jordan Lyles (Rockies), Brad Hand (Padres)
- There are a variety of possibilities here, ranging from fifth starter candidates (Nova, Straily, Milone) to bounceback types (Hahn, Peralta, Lyles) who are not currently working in a big league rotation. Harrell has had two nice starts for Atlanta, though he’s go a way to go to proving he’s worth surrendering real value. Hand has been a new man since moving to a full-time relief role this year.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/13/16
Here are the day’s minor moves and outright assignments:
- Outfielder Will Venable has cleared waivers been outrighted to Triple-A by the Dodgers, according to the transactions page at MLB.com. While Venable has enough service time to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, he’ll instead accept the assignment and head to Oklahoma City, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams (via Twitter). Venable was designated for assignment by the Dodgers for the second time earlier this month after signing a minor league pact with L.A. in mid-June. He’s collected just one hit in 19 plate appearances this season but has a lengthy track record of hitting right-handed pitching well. The 33-year-old will look to get another shot with the big league club later this season.
Earlier Moves
- The Phillies have outrighted recently-designated lefty Mario Hollands, per a club announcement. He’ll be assigned to Double-A. The 27-year-old was a regular contributor to the 2014 Phils’ bullpen, but he hasn’t been back since missing 2015 while recovering from a Tommy John procedure. While moving back up through the Philadelphia farm system this year, Hollands has thrown 26 13 innings of 3.76 ERA ball, with 8.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.
Latest On Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion isn’t interested in discussing a new deal during the season, his agent Paul Kinzer tells Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports. Encarnacion is set to reach the open market at the conclusion of the 2016 campaign.
A team source tells Heyman that the organization has at least made “overtures” to re-start a dialogue with the 33-year-old star. But when asked if Toronto had made an in-season effort, Kinzer said the team had “not really” tried. (That could be interpreted, perhaps, as a denial of communications or a reflection of their nature and quality.)
That’s just fine for Encarnacion’s camp: as Kinzer says, he never intended to talk during the season after a bad experience with that approach earlier in his career. “He’s the most relaxed I’ve every seen him,” says Kinzer. “Why mess with the guy? He’s content. He’s happy.”
Indeed, after a sluggish start, Encarnacion has been on fire at the plate. His season line — .267/.358/.541 with 23 home runs over 387 plate appearances — is already back in line with the top-level offensive production he’s delivered in recent campaigns.
From the club’s perspective, president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro suggested to Heyman that the organization didn’t low-ball the veteran over the winter. (Specifically, he denied an apparent report that the Jays made an opening offer of one year and then moved it to two, both of which would fall well below Encarnacion’s seeming market placement.) Still, Heyman says that the perception continues that Jose Bautista remains a higher priority for Toronto.
While there no longer appears to be any possibility of an extension, that doesn’t mean the Jays won’t have any chance to retain Encarnacion. “This doesn’t mean Toronto’s out,” says Kinzer. “This as the plan all along. We were going to play this thing out.”
Quick Hits: CBA, Minor League Wages, MASN, Academies
Ongoing collective bargaining talks between Major League Baseball and the player’s union have been civil and remain promising, but Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes that there are still issues to iron out. International amateur intake, the qualifying offer system, and PEDs all pose thorny questions. And matters such as expansion of rosters, if not also teams, and a reduction of the regular-season schedule could also need sorting. The smart money remains on a peaceful process, it seems, as most areas of potential conflict are of fairly limited scope and the parties have worked together on several complicated matters of late.
- An issue that has increasingly drawn attention is the wages owed to minor league ballplayers. Nathaniel Grow of Fangraphs takes a close look at the matter, including what to glean from recent comments from commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA chief Tony Clark.
- The TV rights fees dispute between the Nationals and Orioles, which is centered around the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, is still bound up in court, as Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun reports. The judge in the case has rejected the Nats’ request that another MLB arbitration proceeding be commenced, leaving more to battle over even before a new hearing is had on the underlying merits. Manfred still says that he believes a league-run panel will decide the matter, as Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports (via the Washington Times).
- We don’t often hear of top draft picks coming from the service academies, though Air Force righty Griffin Jax recently signed with the Twins after being taken in the third round. As Brent Briggeman of the Colorado Springs Gazette reports, rule changes could make players such as Jax more common. The two-year active-duty service requirement that applies to the academies can now be waived upon application, if an athlete has signed a professional sports contract.
MLBTR Poll: Best Low-Cost Acquisitions
Some moves pan out; others don’t. And then there are those whose importance turns out to be of an entirely different magnitude than had been anticipated. We’ll look at that latter category here.
Among the many great first-half performers, there are many heralded veterans and rising youngsters who were widely expected to do just what they’ve done. But there are also some surprisingly valuable assets who were added for a relative pittance over the winter. Steve Adams already recently covered beneficial minor-league signings, but here are a few who were acquired in other ways:
- David Freese, INF, Pirates — He’s a well-known player, but that doesn’t mean that anybody was expecting this kind of production (.291/.373/.472 over 287 plate appearances). At just $3MM on a one-year term, that late-spring signing is already a certifiable bargain.
- Leonys Martin, OF, Mariners — Seattle has benefited from Martin’s good glovework, wheels, and solid bat — which has produced a surprising double-digit homer tally. Better still, the club now has both Martin and the key piece that it originally gave up to get him (reliever Tom Wilhelmsen).
- Jonathan Villar, SS, Brewers — David Stearns went from Houston to Milwaukee, and it didn’t take long for him to bring a few former ‘Stros with him. Villar, picked up in a minor trade, has been perhaps the best get of all with above-average hitting and big-time speed on the bases driving his value.
- Drew Pomeranz, SP, Padres — When we’re comfortably discussing a player as one of the best starting pitching assets at the deadline, it’s safe to say his organization did well to acquire him just months prior for a package of Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski.
- Dan Straily, SP, Reds — Passed around multiple times at the end of camp, Straily has settled in as a useful arm in Cincinnati. He’s still not going to provide exciting results, but one hundred frames of 4.35 ERA pitching has value.
- Brad Hand, RP, Padres — At the cost of a waiver claim and a 40-man spot, Hand has delivered a 3.10 ERA over 49 1/3 frames. Even better, he’s jumped to a career-best 10.9 K/9, suggesting he may have found another gear upon moving to the pen full-time.
- Dan Otero, RP, Indians — Acquired for cash by Cleveland, Otero is another player who bounced around over the winter. All he has done is post a 1.27 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 35 1/3 strong frames.
From this list, which has been the best bargain? (Link for mobile app users.)
Best Surprise Bargain Acquisition Of The Winter?
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Drew Pomeranz, Padres 38% (3,681)
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Jonathan Villar, Brewers 24% (2,308)
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David Freese, Pirates 22% (2,166)
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Leonys Martin, Mariners 8% (736)
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Dan Otero, Indians 4% (421)
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Dan Straily, Reds 3% (297)
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Brad Hand, Padres 1% (89)
Total votes: 9,698
C.J. Cron To DL With Broken Hand
JULY 11: Cron will undergo surgery Tuesday on his broken hand and will miss six to eight weeks, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
JULY 8: Angels first baseman/DH C.J. Cron is headed to the DL after being diagnosed with a fractured left hand, as Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Cron suffered the injury on a hit-by-pitch. Ji-Man Choi will be recalled to take Cron’s roster spot, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets.
[Related: Updated Angels Depth Chart]
That’s a tough blow for a Halos club that hasn’t had much go right this year. Cron had been one of the few bright spots for the organization, putting up a .280/.331/.479 batting line with 11 home runs over 283 plate appearances. That represented a nice step forward for the 26-year-old, who had been a slightly-above-average hitter in his two prior years but needed to do more with the bat given his positional limitations.
Notably, Cron has not only boosted his power numbers, but has also improved his plate discipline quite a bit. As things stand, he has career-best numbers in walks (6.0%) and strikeouts (14.5%).
The 25-year-old Choi struggled in his first taste of the big leagues earlier this year, though that was a brief stint. He has been hitting quite well at Triple-A on the year, running up a .329/.413/.488 slash over 197 plate appearances.
AL Trade Notes: Twins, ERod, Red Sox Pitching, Hill
Twins GM Terry Ryan says that his organization had “better be open for business, which we are,” as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reports. Minnesota seems ready to market its trade chips, though it’s still unclear how the club will approach the deadline. Its best pieces, as we just covered in MLBTR’s top trade candidate series, include righty Ervin Santana, utilityman Eduardo Nunez, and relievers Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler. Ryan says he’s willing to consider any type of prospect in its trade discussions, and noted that the organization “wouldn’t be opposed” to paying down some contractual obligations “if you’re getting a good player back and it takes some money to do it.” He did note, however, that the Twins typically don’t hang onto cash when dealing a player.
Here’s more from the American League:
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that he still has hope that Eduardo Rodriguez can contribute to the team this year, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. That assessment could well have an impact on the team’s approach to the trade deadline. “If people would be looking to say we’re going to be getting someone more talented than Eduardo Rodriguez, it’s not going to happen,” said Dombrowski. “They’re just not out there. They’re not out there and available. Sometimes you’ve got to fix some things internally. We’ll see what happens.”
- Regardless of the Red Sox‘ views on Rodriguez, the team figures to be in the hunt for at least one rotation arm. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports, Boston has been in touch with the Padres, who could market Drew Pomeranz and/or Andrew Cashner (though the latter had a really rough outing tonight). Also, senior VP of baseball ops Frank Wren is said to have watched both Rich Hill of the Athletics and Julio Teheran of the Braves recently.
- Hill has returned from the DL to rave reviews for the Athletics, and both Drellich and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggest that widespread interest is building in the southpaw. The former cites the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Tigers as organizations that are taking a look at Hill. And Slusser adds yet more teams to the possible mix, listing the Blue Jays, Royals, and Orioles as possible suitors that have been watching him pitch of late. While Hill’s frequent injuries limit his appeal somewhat, there’s an argument to be made that he’s the best pure rental piece available this summer.
Yoenis Cespedes, Noah Syndergaard Leave Game With Apparent Injuries
11:12pm: Both players suggested that there isn’t cause for alarm after the game, as Rubin reports. Syndergaard said he did not experience any elbow pain, but was dealing with “a little shoulder fatigue.”
Cespedes, meanwhile, said that he’s dealt with a similar issue and only missed a handful of days. He expressed hope that he’d avoid a DL stint. Skipper Terry Collins also sounded an optimistic tone, saying that the club would likely just go with a short-handed roster for the time being rather than rushing into any DL determinations.
10:14pm: Manager Terry Collins explains: “[Syndergaard] just said his arm went dead. It got tired on him.” (Via Rubin, on Twitter).
9:23pm: Syndergaard was suffering from “arm fatigue” when he was pulled, the Mets announced. The issue was “not elbow-related.”
8:19pm: Already dealing with the loss of Matt Harvey for the year, the Mets now have to new injury situations to watch. Star center fielder Yoenis Cespedes left the action with what’s being called a quadriceps strain, while budding staff ace Noah Syndergaard left in the middle of the fifth inning with an unknown malady.
It’s far too soon to know whether either player could be dealing with a significant issue, but the surrounding circumstances add to the concern. And that’s all before considering the fact that these two players have been the organization’s two best through the first half of the season.
In the case of Cespedes, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin suggests on Twitter that the quick diagnosis of a strain — not a “mild” strain, or discomfort, say — is unusual for the tight-lipped organization. A full analysis will be required before the team will know more, but there’s at least some cause for added attention.
That’s all the more true for Syndergaard. While we’ve heard both team and player downplay the issue, he has dealt with a barking elbow at various points of the season. Syndergaard has a reputedly small bone spur, which is hardly uncommon, but this isn’t the first time he’s been pulled early. Something obviously triggered the move, as Syndergaard was pulled in the middle of the fifth inning while sitting at just 79 pitches. James Wagner of the New York Times tweets that his final two fastballs clocked in at 95 and 94 mph, which is well below his ridiculous 98+ average velocity but perhaps isn’t overly concerning in and of itself.