Marlins Sign Wei-Yin Chen
The Marlins have officially agreed to a deal with free agent lefty Wei-Yin Chen. He’ll reportedly receive a five-year, $80MM guarantee — just as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted before the offseason — but the deal negotiated between the Miami front office and the Boras Corporation is much more complicated than that.
First and foremost, while Chen won’t gain no-trade protection, the contract comes with an opt-out opportunity for the 30-year-old Chen after 2017. And he’ll receive just $28MM of the guaranteed money in the first two years of the deal ($8MM signing bonus, $6MM salary in 2016, and $14MM for 2017). That would mean the team could get two prime years of the southpaw at a very appealing rate if he opts out, though the backside of the deal could turn ugly if Chen falters. (It’s worth noting, too, that the club could pick up a draft pick via a qualifying offer in an opt-out scenario.)
In the event that Chen remains in Miami, he could pick up a vesting/player option for a sixth season by logging 180 innings in the prior campaign or 360 frames over the two preceding years. That’s a somewhat unusual provision. Presumably, Chen would gain the right to choose between a one-year guarantee or free agency if he hits the innings tally. That option could bring the deal’s total value to $96MM.
As Dierkes explained at length in the above-linked post, Chen earned that contract by posting a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings in the last two seasons. He rarely issues free passes, dominates lefties, and brings a strong low-to-mid-nineties fastball. It’s important to note, too, that Chen has missed only minimal time and has not had any reported arm issues.
Of course, there’s more to it than that, and there are some indications that the lefty may have benefited from some good fortune (including playing in front of a stellar defensive unit in Baltimore). He’s only carried a 3.91 SIERA since the start of 2014, isn’t a major strikeout or groundball pitcher, and has been susceptible to the long ball. And Chen hasn’t exactly chewed up innings; despite being ready almost every fifth day, he doesn’t tend to go deep into games.
With the move, Miami has significantly upgraded a rotation that long seemed in need of a quality arm. The team lost Henderson Alvarez to free agency after non-tendering him, and that left the club with some uncertainty behind ace Jose Fernandez. Chen will join Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler as near-locks for the staff, with Edwin Jackson now joining in-house options such as Adam Conley, Brad Hand, David Phelps, Justin Nicolino, Jose Urena, and Kendry Flores. (Some of those names, of course, could well end up in the pen.)
As Chen turned down a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, he’ll cost the Marlins their top non-protected pick, which will come in the second round. The club’s first selection, at seventh overall, is protected. The Orioles, meanwhile, will stand to pick up a compensation pick for losing Chen.
It’s easy to forget that the Marlins were viewed by many as a legitimate contender heading into the 2015 season. A lot has changed since then, certainly, but the team’s young core still features a lot of talent. And while Chen himself has faced his share of questions, there’s no denying that he upgrades the Miami staff.
Jon Heyman reported a deal was close on Twitter. Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweeted that a deal was in place. Miami’s ongoing negotiations were reported on Twitter by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the guaranteed money on Twitter. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (Twitter links), Heyman (links to Twitter), and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter) had other key contract provisions.
Free Agent Notes: Cespedes, Mets, Davis, Nathan
ESPN’s Buster Olney opines that the Mets should not commit to Yoenis Cespedes, as they’d be better served holding onto the remaining resources they have in order to see what needs might arise during the season (ESPN Insider subscription required). Barring a sudden increase in payroll from ownership, he says, rashly pursuing Cespedes could prevent the team from addressing a more significant area this coming summer. But public pressure is growing for New York to make a play for the team’s 2015 trade-deadline star, he notes.
More on the market …
- John Harper of the New York Daily News feels that the Justin Upton signing further adds to the pressure on the Mets, though he also adds that the $132.75MM guarantee probably indicates that Upton had significant interest from multiple teams. If that’s the case, some of those clubs could very well turn their attention to Cespedes. If Cespedes lands a comparable or greater deal, Harper points out, it will explain why the Mets failed to bring him back into the fold. However, if he signs for three or four years elsewhere, Harper believes it’ll be hard for the Mets to justify their lack of spending. As we’ve discussed often here at MLBTR, though, short-term or even mid-range scenarios such as Harper describes continue to appear unlikely for Cespedes, who — like Upton — still figures to find a large and lengthy guarantee despite his extended wait on the market.
- When evaluating baseball contracts, the concept of deferred money is both rightly referenced and often misunderstood. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs provides good perspective on the recent Chris Davis deal, explaining that the total value of his contract can’t just be discounted all the way to one, lump-sum present value — at least, that is, unless we treat every other contract the same way. (Point being: we typically add up future payouts in multi-year deals without discounting their value, even though the same rationale applies to all money owed in the future, whether or not “deferred.”) Cameron attempts to put the Davis deal on roughly the same footing as a more typically structured deal that pays out annual salaries in the year they are earned, concluding that the $161MM guarantee is probably best thought of as a $148MM pact.
- Veteran reliever Joe Nathan is getting bites from around ten teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Nathan is looking to come back from Tommy John surgery at 41 years of age. While he’s not likely to be signed with any grand expectations, and struggled in his most recent run with the Tigers, it’s easy to see why teams would be willing to give him a shot given that he remained productive well in his late thirties.
- Free agency is typically the most straightforward way to address a need, and Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth looks at what teams have done to address the biggest problem areas around the league from the 2015 season.
Royals Sign Lorenzo Cain To Two-Year Deal
The Royals announced on Monday that they have reached a two-year contract with All-Star center fielder Lorenzo Cain that will buy out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility for a $17.5MM guarantee. Cain, a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management, will is set to earn $6.5MM for the coming season and $11MM in 2017, per reports.
Cain had projected to earn $6.1MM. On Friday, he filed at $7.85MM with the team countering at $5MM, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The resulting $6.42MM midpoint would represent nearly a $4MM raise over Cain’s 2.725MM salary last year.
As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted on Twitter, the potential for another significant arbitration raise — perhaps by referencing free agent comparables after another big season — might explain why Kansas City was willing to lock in at such a high rate. Certainly, we’ve seen this deal format before; the Nationals, for instance, bought out the last two years of both Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann prior to the 2014 season.
Cain put up a stellar campaign last year, his age-29 season, to follow up on and exceed a solid 2014 effort. Put together, he’s racked up a .304/.351/.447 slash line with 21 home runs and 56 stolen bases over 1,106 plate appearances dating back to 2014, and his outstanding production in 2015 led to a third-place finish in the American League MVP voting. With top-quality defense and overall baserunning contributions factored in, it’s hard not to label Cain one of the game’s most productive position players.
Of course, as Passan notes in another tweet, Kansas City wasn’t willing to reach the kind of long-term deal that would have kept Cain around beyond 2017. Given his relatively advanced age, and the signing of Alex Gordon, the six-year pact that Cain reportedly sought probably entailed too much risk. It’s hardly preordained that Cain will be gone after the conclusion of this contract, but — much as in the cases of Desmond and Zimmermann — there’s a sense that the most realistic window for a deal has already closed.
Passan first reported a deal was close (via Twitter) and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reported that there was an agreement in place (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/18/16
Matt Eddy of Baseball America has the latest minor moves from around the game. Among those that have not previously appeared at MLBTR:
- Lefty Andy Oliver is headed back to the Orioles, per Eddy. The 28-year-old made some brief MLB appearances years ago, when he was a starter in the Tigers’ organization, but spent last year at Triple-A for the O’s. He posted a 3.79 ERA over 57 Triple-A innings, with 10.4 K/9 against 6.3 BB/9.
- The Royals have once again united with outfielder Mitch Maier. Originally taken 30th overall back in 2003, Maier is now 33 years old and hasn’t seen the majors since 2012. It’s not immediately clear what his role will be, as he spent last year transitioning into a coaching role with the organization — though he acknowledged at the time that he still had a desire to play.
- Outfielder Corey Brown is headed to the Dodgers on a minors deal, Eddy adds. The 30-year-old has seen only minimal major league time over the years, but certainly qualifies as another outfield depth piece for Los Angeles. He put up a .248/.324/.445 slash with 17 long balls over 472 Triple-A plate appearances last year in the Rays organization.
- The Blue Jays added southpaw Daniel Schlereth on a minor league pact. It’s been a while since Schlereth, 29, cracked the bigs — 2012, with Detroit — and he was released by the Cubs last year after a brief stint in the organization. Schlereth was the 26th overall pick in the 2008 draft.
Marlins Beat Writer Juan C. Rodriguez Passes Away
Juan C. Rodriguez, the Sun Sentinel’s beat writer for the Marlins, has passed away after a battle with brain cancer. His friend, Andy Barkett, conveyed the unfortunate news today on Twitter, and the team he covered also acknowledged his untimely passing in a tweet.
MLBTR joins all those around the game in extending its condolences to Juan’s family and friends. You can learn more about his story and consider giving to the Rodriguez family at this link. Juan’s good work was often featured here at MLBTR, and the outpouring of sympathy from the ballwriting community stands as a testament to his impact on colleagues. Mike Berardino provides a fitting quote, from Rodriguez himself: “We can’t impose our will on brain cancer, but we can take charge of how we choose to live with it.”
Rangers Announce Colby Lewis Signing
The Rangers have announced the signing of righty Colby Lewis to a one-year deal. He reportedly agreed to terms for a guaranteed $6MM back in mid-December, but the sides took their time completing a physical and finalizing the arrangement.
The 36-year-old Lewis has been with Texas since the 2010 campaign, when he came back to the majors after a strong two-year run in Japan. While he only managed a 4.66 ERA last year, he contributed better than 200 frames.
Despite an absence of strikeouts and grounders in Lewis’s game, there are some positives. He still carried an 11.6% K%-BB% that lands just below league average. And, as Eno Sarris of Fangraphs has explored, it seems Lewis may have figured out a way to generate results by managing contact.
The Rangers won’t be expecting a world-beating effort from Lewis, anyway, so much as continued durability and a solid, veteran presence. Texas’s staff has certainly settled down quite a bit after an injury-riddled recent past, but still carries sufficient uncertainty to make such an investment a clear need entering the winter.
Central Notes: Lucroy, Cardinals, Aiken
As the United States celebrates one of its greatest heroes, the Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr., it’s worth remembering that his cause, and even his own story, have many links with baseball. The wonderful Negro League Museum, which captures a uniquely compelling and important segment of American and baseball history, provides some incredible photos to drive this point home today (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Mike Bertha explores those connections in honor of King. And as Examiner.com reminds us, you’ll want to revisit this Time story featuring a King anecdote from legendary Dodgers hurler Don Newcombe.
The threads of history extend everywhere, of course; as Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette explores, Pirates reliever Tony Watson‘s great uncle, Tom Offenburger, served as an aide to King and the Southern Christian Leadership Conference. On this somber but grateful day, here are some notes from the game’s central divisions:
- A pre-season trade of Brewers backstop Jonathan Lucroy appears to be increasingly unlikely, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suggests (Twitter links). Milwaukee has put a justifiably steep price tag on the veteran, says Haudricourt, and it seems that “has scared off suitors.” Of course, it’s probably fair to add that the situation still warrants attention this spring. A strong Cactus League showing from Lucroy and/or a key injury for a contender could quickly shift the balance of considerations.
- There’s no getting around the fact that some of the Cardinals‘ most important players are getting up in years, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, but that aging core still has plenty of confidence entering 2016. “Nobody likes being called old, right?” said veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright. “But I think they’re right, for the most part. We are aging. We’re just becoming more wise. Somebody has to get old. If we’re still playing and older it means we still have some ability.” As Wainwright and owner Bill DeWitt Jr. rightly point out, too, it isn’t as if the organization lacks for any talented, younger players on its major league roster. Still, St. Louis remains one of the more interesting clubs to watch as it tries to defend its N.L. Central crown against two strong challengers in the Pirates and Cubs.
- Indians lefty Brady Aiken is excited to be back on the bump, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports. The high-ceiling youngster, who famously failed to sign with the Astros as the top overall pick before landing in Cleveland after being taken 17th overall last year, is still on a Tommy John rehab program but threw his first pitches from the mound last week. Both team and player have positive vibes from his first months in the organization, per the report, but the 19-year-old obviously has a long way to go both to regain his full physical health and then to start the grinding climb toward the majors.
The Remaining Free Agent Market For Starters
It seems hard to believe that there’s anything left on the starting pitching market given the number of major signings we’ve already seen, but that’s mostly a reflection of the deep and talented free agent pool this offseason. Over $1B has already been spent on rotation arms, but there’s still plenty of interesting names left.
With pitchers (and catchers) set to report in about a month, here’s an overview of what remains on the open market for teams looking to add to their starting staff:
Best Available
- Yovani Gallardo — He entered the winter with similar expectations to Ian Kennedy, bested him handily in a recent poll here at MLBTR, and then watched as Kennedy landed $70MM with an opt-out. There still seems to be plenty of interest in the veteran righty, though, and teams looking for a steady veteran arm may not have any better options.
Bounceback Candidates
- Doug Fister — Though he seemed like a classic free agent who’d look for one year to re-establish value, the towering hurler is hoping for a two-year deal and could still be a great value.
- Mat Latos — While he still has plenty of upside, especially given his age, Latos had a roller-coaster 2015 and comes with real reputation issues. Last we heard, there are at least a handful of teams with interest.
- Kyle Lohse — He struggled badly in 2015, but his swinging strike rate was on the rise and he posted an atypically-high (for him) .314 BABIP and 15.3% HR/FB rate. And it’s hard to completely ignore the four-year run of success that preceded last year.
- Alfredo Simon — He could be classed more as a swingman candidate, since his sudden success as a starter in 2014 looks like an isolated phenomenon, but Simon said he battled a knee injury last year and might still be viewed as a potential candidate to return to his ’14 form — with the downside of going back to being a solid reliever — though his market has been quiet.
Rehabbers
- Bronson Arroyo — Was as durable as they came until he wasn’t, but still seems a reasonably likely candidate to fill some innings for some time to come.
- Chad Billingsley — Struggled in 2015 and ended with yet more injuries, but is still just 31 years old.
- Josh Johnson — Likely out for all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery, he is still young enough (he’ll soon turn 32) that a club could sign him to some form of deal that would allow him to rehab in hopes of a 2017 return.
- Cliff Lee — All indications are he’ll require a fairly significant contract to give it another go. While that’s tough to do with a 37-year-old who just tried to rest and rehab a flexor strain, most such pitchers don’t have Lee’s lengthy record of dominance, which stretched into the 2014 season.
- Tim Lincecum — Most pitchers also don’t have Lincecum’s track record, either, and he’s much younger (31). But he’s also much further removed from dominance. Still, the promise of a rebound after recent hip surgery will lead to interest.
- Cory Luebke — He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012, but will be an interesting rehabilitation project entering his age-31 campaign.
- Justin Masterson — Despite failing to make good on his make-good deal last year, he’s drawing interest and is expected to be ready to go this spring as he tries to bounce back from shoulder surgery.
- Mike Minor — Shoulder issues have been a major problem for Minor, who seemed headed for an arbitration tender from the Braves until he suffered a setback. But he only just turned 28, has another year of arb control, and has shown his share of promise in the majors.
Veteran Innings
- Chris Capuano — Struggled last year while being repeatedly designated, outrighted, and re-added to the 40-man by the Yankees, but still gets double-digit swinging strike rates.
- Aaron Harang — Didn’t follow up on a stellar 2014 as injuries intervened, and may yet retire, but would be an intriguing piece for the right team.
- Shaun Marcum — Had good results last year at Triple-A and built up some innings after a long layoff.
- Wandy Rodriguez — Ate some frames for the Rangers at a time when they really needed it, drew serviceable ratings from advanced metrics, and could be a useful depth piece.
- Eric Stults — Last year was tough, but he’s been useful and posted some sturdy innings tallies in recent years.
- Randy Wolf — Didn’t have much of a big league opportunity in 2015, but posted a 2.58 ERA in 139 2/3 Triple-A frames.
- Jerome Williams — Might be tough to find a rotation job out of camp, but he’s still a steady and respected veteran who’ll have interest.
Wild Cards
- Joe Blanton — Suddenly blossomed into an ace reliever and teams may see more value in plugging him into the pen. He’s reportedly drawing strong interest, though his market has been quiet of late.
- Mark Buehrle — Indications are he’s going to retire, and probably would only consider a limited number of teams if he returns, but would be quite an interesting target if he decides to play.
Market For Yoenis Cespedes “Intensifying”
10:57pm: The Tigers are among the teams still at least considering Cespedes, Jon Heyman reports (all Twitter links). While GM Al Avila said during the Winter Meetings that his team was “out” on Cespedes, that was six weeks ago and things could have changed with the outfielder still on the market in mid-January. Indeed, later reports suggested that Detroit was still monitoring Cespedes if his price dropped. Heyman notes that the Tigers may be thinking about adding a big bat since they seriously thought about signing Davis; some front office members even wanted to make the move, though “future luxury-tax concerns” scuttled the signing.
12:36pm: With plenty of interest in and activity on Cespedes, there’s “no chance” he will be forced to take a “very short deal,” Jon Heyman tweets.
10:58am: The market for free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is “intensifying,” according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link). It seems possible that a deal could come together within “the next few days,” he adds.
With yesterday’s reported agreement between Chris Davis and the Orioles, it seems plausible to expect greater clarity in Cespedes’s own market. Baltimore had emerged as one of the most widely-reported suitors for the Cuban veteran, but the addition of Davis likely takes them out of the market for further major power bats.
Cespedes is said to be seeking something nearing or even exceeding the overall value that Davis received from the O’s. But it remains unclear as yet where that level of cash will come from. Baltimore was reportedly interested at around $90MM over five years.
While we have only heard about clear interest from a few teams to date, Bowden says that as many as ten organizations are still in “active contact” with Cespedes’s reps. While at least some are surely offering a soft landing rather than pursuing a bidding war, that’s still encouraging at this stage of the winter.
From public reports to date, the Mets and White Sox are apparently not willing to go past three years. The Braves reportedly have interest, too, but it’s hard to imagine that Atlanta would go anywhere near the Davis contract. Other teams that make good hypothetical fits, such as the Tigers and Angels, have not been tied strongly to Cespedes.
In considering the possibilities, though, it’s worth noting that virtually all of the league’s teams could stand to improve by adding Cespedes. While that’s hardly the end of the analysis, there should be ample motivation to explore the possibilities. Young players can be held in the upper minors; trades can be made; and position changes can be implemented. It’s true, too, that there are some trade candidates still out there that effect things as well, but there’s no getting around the fact that Cespedes had a monster season last year, is a great athlete with all-around abilities, and isn’t even all that old.
Poll: How Much Will Yoenis Cespedes Get?
The free agent market has steadily advanced in the new year, but significant names remain. Many of them have drawn divergent opinions at times, perhaps none moreso than Yoenis Cespedes. With reports suggesting that Cespedes is receiving heavy interest, and could soon close in on a deal, it seems like an opportune time to get everyone’s predictions.
In this free agent profile, I broke down his benefits and drawbacks while agreeing with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that a $140MM guarantee was obtainable. That was in early December, and a seeming market lull made some wonder whether the dollars were drying up. Now, most signings are still coming in at expected values, and the above-cited reports suggest Cespedes won’t need to settle for a pure pillow contract. But will he max out his earning potential?
Opt-outs, options, deferred money, taxes, and the like all weigh in the equation, of course. But those are hard to account for in this sort of exercise, and the bottom-line guarantee is still king.
So, here’s your chance to weigh in:
What Overall Guarantee Is Yoenis Cespedes Most Likely To Land?
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$90MM to $120MM 46% (6,732)
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$60MM to $90MM 20% (2,979)
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$120MM to $150MM 19% (2,736)
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$30MM to $60MM 6% (839)
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$10MM to $30MM 5% (759)
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$150MM to $180MM 3% (502)
Total votes: 14,547