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Nationals, Twins Reported To Be Most Aggressive On Josh Donaldson

By Jeff Todd | December 19, 2019 at 10:29pm CDT

DEC. 19: It’s “believed” the Nationals and Twins are willing to go to four years for Donaldson, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Dodgers and Braves are still in the hunt, per Rosenthal, though he notes both teams could be hesitant to go to the four-year length to land Donaldson.

DEC. 16: Ever since they watched star third baseman Anthony Rendon depart, the Nationals have been rumored to be pressing hard for Josh Donaldson as a replacement. The club’s willingness to spend appears to be driving the market for Donaldson, an older but still outstanding player in his own right.

Whether or not there’s a formal offer on the table isn’t known. But the Nats are “aggressive” in their pursuit of Donaldson, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Indeed, the team is prepared to bid upwards of $90MM on a four-year term, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

MLBTR had predicted a $25MM average annual value for Donaldson, but anticipated he would only be able to secure that over a three-year guarantee. All indications are that Donaldson will have lengthier offers to consider, though it remains to be seen whether he will get to nine-figure territory.

Donaldson more than made good on his one-year deal last winter with the Braves, who are among the other pursuers. He blistered the ball (50.0% hard-hit rate, 92.9 mph average exit velocity), drew a ton of walks (15.2% BB rate), and played great defense (especially in the eyes of DRS, which had him at +15 runs). It was a compelling campaign from a player who has already proven over multiple years that he’s capable of elite production, though teams have no doubt not forgotten that Donaldson is now 34 years of age and dealt with major leg injuries in the prior two seasons.

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins Washington Nationals Josh Donaldson

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Brewers To Sign Justin Smoak

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | December 19, 2019 at 9:38am CDT

9:38am: Smoak will earn $4MM in 2020 and has a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2021 season, Passan tweets.

9:27am: The two sides are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. There’s also a club option for the 2021 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is pending a physical.

9:09am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent first baseman Justin Smoak, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak is represented by the Bledsoe Agency.

Justin Smoak | im Klement-USA TODAY SportsThis is the latest in a string of short-term acquisitions for the Milwaukee organization, which has almost completely turned over its infield over the past six weeks. The club has installed Eric Sogard and Luis Urias in the middle infield mix while picking up Ryon Healy and now Smoak to help cover the corners. Keston Hiura, of course, will factor prominently into the mix as well after impressing with the bat in his rookie season.

Beyond that, president of baseball ops David Stearns said after this week’s signing of Avisail Garcia that Ryan Braun will likely see some time at first base in 2020 as well (Twitter link via Andrew Wagner of the Wisconsin State Journal). It’s a layered collection of veterans and young upside hitters, and  the precise manner in which playing time will be sorted remains to be determined in Spring Training.

Smoak made a long-awaited break-out at the plate in 2017 and followed that up with a strong ’18 effort. In combination, he slashed .256/.353/.495 with 63 home runs in 1,231 turns with the bat in those campaigns. Unfortunately, he hit the skids a bit in the just-completed season. The switch-hitting 33-year-old is coming off of a .208/.342/.406 effort, but the underlying metrics on his season are far more interesting than his surface-level .208 batting average.

In fact, there’s some evidence to suggest that the Brewers could hit gold with this signing. As explored here at MLBTR back in September, Smoak’s .323 wOBA lagged the .366 xwOBA he registered with Statcast, indicating there could be some positive regression in the batted-ball department. He also drew walks at an exceptionally healthy 15.8% rate while striking out just 21.2% of the time.

As highlighted in that September exploration of his odd season, Smoak chased pitches outside the strike zone less than nearly any hitter in MLB, and he ranked among the game’s best in terms of pitches per plate appearance. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who should make opposing pitchers work even if he continues to hit for a low batting average. And, supposing Smoak can turn balls in play into base hits at an increased rate — his .223 BABIP was certainly an outlier — he could bounce right back into being a productive hitter.

Milwaukee undeniably lost some key pieces this winter, with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departing for four-year deals with the White Sox and Reds, respectively. Eric Thames, meanwhile, was bought out and sent into the free-agent market. Smoak will in many ways replace Thames at a slightly reduced cost — likely bringing better glovework to the table but lesser production against right-handed pitching.

Smoak will come in at $1.5MM less than Thames would’ve earned — a slight savings that exemplifies the Brewers’ risk-averse mentality and focus on the margins when building out a roster. This depth-forward approach both safeguards against injury and allows for slightly reduced workloads that, in theory, lessen the overall risk of injury and keeps their position players fresher. It also leads to a great deal of turnover, which can be frustrating for fans at times but has resulted in three straight winning seasons and two consecutive postseason appearances.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Transactions Justin Smoak

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Reds Reportedly Exploring Francisco Lindor Trade Scenarios

By Jeff Todd | December 19, 2019 at 7:23am CDT

The Reds have “engage[d]” with the Indians in talks regarding shortstop Francisco Lindor, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). There’s no indication to this point that the discussions are anything but exploratory in nature.

We’ve heard ongoing chatter regarding the Cleveland superstar. Lindor, who recently turned 26, is entering his second-to-last season of arbitration control and projects to earn $16.7MM. Having recently shipped out high-dollar hurlers Trevor Bauer (over the summer, to Cincinnati) and Corey Kluber (more recently, to the Rangers), the Indians are seemingly willing to listen on Lindor. But indication is that the club isn’t especially anxious to deal him.

While it’s still unclear whether there’s any significant likelihood of a swap coming together, it’s interesting to hear of ongoing talks from multiple quarters. The Padres and Dodgers are among the other organizations tied recently to Lindor, though in all cases we’ve yet to hear of anything approaching a concerted effort to pry loose the star shortstop.

No doubt it’d take a massive array of talent to coax the Indians into moving Lindor. Though it’s now quite difficult to imagine he will be retained for the long haul with an extension, he’s also still a reasonably priced young star on a team that is still in an open competitive window. The Indians can plausibly hope to cover the outgoing pitching from within, though they undoubtedly sacrificed quite a lot of near-term upside in the form of Bauer and Kluber. But there’s really no replacing Lindor.

Whether there’s a path to a deal remains to be seen, but the involvement of the Reds could help spur movement on the market. It is especially notable that the Cincinnati organization has recently hammered out complicated, multi-player deals with the Indians — as well as the Padres and the Dodgers, who could consider moving Corey Seager as part of or in a follow-up to a Lindor acquisition. Hypothetical possibilities abound. At minimum, the report makes clear that the Reds are still scanning the market in search of major improvements.

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Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Francisco Lindor

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Brewers To Sign Eric Sogard

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 12:22pm CDT

The Brewers have struck a deal with veteran infielder Eric Sogard, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic ( Twitter links). It’s said to be a one-year, $4.5MM arrangement that includes an option for another campaign.

Sogard returns to Milwaukee after an up-and-down stint with the club from 2017-18. When last he suited up for the Brew Crew, Sogard proved unable to repeat a strong 2017 season in which he walked more than he struck out and delivered his first-ever above-average offensive effort.

After that disappointing turn, Sogard secured a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays. He earned his way up rather quickly and ended up producing an even more interesting season with the bat. Over 442 plate appearances, before and after a mid-season trade to the Rays, Sogard popped 13 home runs and delivered a .290/.353/.457 batting line.

Sogard’s surprising burst obviously coincided with a general power wave. He also benefited in particular from some wall-scraping dingers that he rode out with a much-steepened average launch angle. We examined the topic in the approach to the trade deadline. As it turned out, Sogard hit just three dingers and slugged .404 in his 119 plate appearances with Tampa Bay, so perhaps there’s added cause to wonder whether that will continue.

No doubt the Brewers have a good sense of how much power to anticipate from Sogard. They’re also amply familiar with his other qualities, including an exceptional eye and contact ability. Sogard delivers well-regarded glovework at second base, the ability to line up just about anywhere on the field, and a track record of adding runs with his legs.

The Milwaukee roster has seen quite a lot of change in the infield already this winter. Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, and Hernan Perez all hit the open market. The club has now added Luis Urias, Ryon Healy, and Sogard as at least a partial slate of replacements.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Transactions Eric Sogard

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Ben Lively Re-Signs With KBO’s Samsung Lions

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 11:10am CDT

Righty Ben Lively will return to the Korea Baseball Organization for another run with the Samsung Lions, the team announced and Yonhap News reports. It’ll be a one-year deal that includes $700K in guaranteed money and $250K in potential incentive pay.

Lively has thrown 120 MLB frames, mostly with the Phillies, working to a 4.80 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. The former fourth-round pick spent time in 2019 with the Royals and Diamondbacks organizations before a mid-season move to South Korea.

The Lions obviously liked the work they received from Lively down the stretch. The 27-year-old threw 57 innings over nine starts, compiling a 58:13 K/BB ratio and posting a 3.95 ERA.

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Korea Baseball Organization Transactions Ben Lively

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Tigers Sign Shao-Ching Chiang

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 10:38am CDT

The Tigers announced that they’ve inked a minor-league deal with righty Shao-Ching Chiang. It comes with an invitation to MLB camp.

Chiang, a 26-year-old hurler, originally signed with the Indians out of his native Taiwan. He steadily moved up the ladder in the Cleveland system but ran into headwinds as he reached the upper tiers in recent campaigns.

Last season, Chiang repeated the Triple-A level without earning a call-up to the bigs. He has recorded 195 2/3 innings of 5.11 ERA ball with 7.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 at the highest level of the minors. Chiang became a minor-league free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 season.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions

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Yankees Announce Gerrit Cole Signing, Designate Chance Adams

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 10:38am CDT

As expected, the Yankees have formally announced their blockbuster deal with free agent starter Gerrit Cole. Fellow right-hander Chance Adams was designated for assignment to create roster space.

A newly clean-shaven Cole is set to be introduced at a press conference today. The club has not confirmed the financial details of the arrangement — it’s reported to come with an eye-popping $324MM guarantee — but did announce the nine-year term of the deal and the post-2024 opt-out opportunity.

As for Adams, 25, he has been with the Yankees organization since he was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. He struggled in his early MLB opportunities, allowing 30 earned runs in just 33 frames over the past two seasons. Adams has spent most of the past three campaigns at the Triple-A level, where he owns a 4.04 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. The righty once ranked among the organization’s top five prospects and, prior to the 2017 season, was ranked as the No. 81 prospect in the game by Baseball America. Things clearly haven’t panned out as hoped, but Adams does have a minor league option remaining and could hold some appeal to rebuilding clubs in need of pitching depth.

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New York Yankees Transactions Chance Adams Gerrit Cole

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Marlins To Sign Matt Kemp

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 8:57am CDT

The Marlins have struck a minor-league pact with outfielder Matt Kemp, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The deal includes an invitation to MLB camp.

We’ve heard all winter that the Fish wish to add more pop to their corner outfield mix. Kemp definitely has a history of swinging a big stick. He’ll be looking to make a comeback at 35 years of age on the heels of an injury marred 2019 season.

Kemp has had peaks and valleys at the plate throughout his career, though he was at least an average hitter at his low points. He carries a lifetime .285/.337/.485 batting line with 281 home runs through nearly seven thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.

That career output is good for a 121 wRC+ — just a shade less than the 122 wRC+ he produced through 506 plate appearances in a surprise return to the Dodgers in 2018. Kemp ended up moving to the Reds via trade in the offseason, but never got off the ground in Cincinnati.

Kemp ended up appearing in only twenty MLB contests in 2019, a career-low for a player who debuted in 2006. He produced only a .200/.210/.283 slash in his 62 plate appearances with the Reds, striking out 19 times while drawing just a single walk. Kemp was dumped after he suffered a broken rib, an injury that lingered and cut short a brief attempt at getting things going at Triple-A with the Mets.

Even if Kemp is able to rebound at the plate, he’s not going to offer much in the field. But the Marlins will see how he looks in camp and go from there. Odds are Kemp won’t be tasked with an everyday role even if he’s in good form. The impact on the team’s other reputed offseason pursuits remains to be seen, but it seems fair to presume the signing won’t take the club out of the rest of the corner outfield market entirely.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Transactions Matt Kemp

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Mark Shapiro On Blue Jays’ Offseason

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 7:33am CDT

Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro joined Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid (link to YouTube) to discuss the state of the team’s offseason efforts. He emphasized that “there’s still a good amount of offseason left” and suggested further additions are yet to come.

Shapiro acknowledged that the market has driven salaries higher than anticipated. In response, the club has “adjusted our threshold on players and gone … a certain percentage higher than we thought we would go.”

That still hasn’t resulted in any major additions, with Shapiro explaining that a variety of circumstances have kept the Jays from locking up certain targets. One particular challenge, he suggested, lies in convincing players of the team’s readiness to win games. That seems to present a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma, though obviously the organization hopes that its on-field output will improve from within as well as benefiting from new additions.

So what of the hoped for “significant additions”? Shapiro says the club has “already added” — a nod to the still-unofficial Tanner Roark and Shun Yamaguchi additions — and is “not done this winter.” (Shapiro suggests the club values Yamaguchi for his ability to provide rotation depth and “upside out of the pen.” ) But Shapiro acknowledged it’s less likely now than it once was that the club will install one major player, though he made clear he’s still holding out hope.

Shapiro asks that the organization be judged at the end of the winter and based upon the entirety of the roster movement that occurs. He believes there’ll be “significant” improvement by that standard when camp opens in the spring.

But Shapiro also left some unmistakable warnings not to expect too much. He cited the need to maintain “future flexibility” for a hoped-for “window of opportunity,” explaining that the organization must “grudgingly approach giving up that flexibility.” And when asked about potentially adding to the position-player mix, Shapiro used the opportunity to explain why the organization is hesitant to “give up” on certain players, proffering Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher as examples.

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Toronto Blue Jays Derek Fisher Shun Yamaguchi Teoscar Hernandez

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Brewers Sign Jace Peterson

By Jeff Todd | December 17, 2019 at 8:06pm CDT

The Brewers have inked utilityman Jace Peterson to a minors deal, per a club announcement. The contract includes an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Peterson has never quite made good on his promise, but has still appeared in each of the past six MLB campaigns and appeared in over five hundred big league contests. He’s a .228/.314/.330 hitter at the game’s highest level.

Now 29 years of age, Peterson is in all likelihood slated to provide depth for the Milwaukee organization. But he could yet end up in an important role should a need arise — or should he prove up to the task. He did show a spark last year at Triple-A, even against the offensively elevated International League standard, by turning in 377 plate appearances of .313/.398/.512 hitting.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Jace Peterson

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