At the Royals’ fanfest event today, general manager J.J. Picollo told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the team is considering extensions for its core of young players.  Any deals may not be particularly close and it isn’t known how far any talks have progressed, but Picollo didn’t put a specific timeline on negotiations, saying the Royals would explore the topic throughout the year.

“It is something that we’ve discussed,” Picollo said.  “We’ve studied other extensions signed, and when they get to certain years of service, now you get better comps of, this is what it should look like.  Hopefully, the partner on the other end feels the same way.”

As Rogers notes, such players as Bobby Witt, Brady Singer, and Vinnie Pasquantino fit the model of young extension candidates the Royals would certainly have interest in locking in as key parts of their future.  MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, or Michael Massey could conceivably also be on the radar for long-term deals, and it’s safe to assume that pitchers like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, or Jackson Kowar won’t be considered until they show more at the Major League level.

Naturally, it isn’t any surprise that Kansas City (or any team) has interest in extending promising youngsters.  Once offseason business is complete, most clubs turn their attention to discussing longer-term contracts with in-house players, which is why so many extensions are commonly announced in the period from roughly mid-March to mid-April.

For a lower-payroll team like the Royals, there is both added value and added risk in extending their stars of the future.  If these youngsters do end up living up to their potential, early-career extensions can end up being huge bargains for the team, saving the Royals millions in arbitration costs and free agent dollars.  On the flip side, if the players don’t deliver at the MLB level, then an extension can become an albatross on the somewhat limited Kansas City payroll.

Owner John Sherman also addressed reporters on the topic of extensions, saying that he’ll be at the Royals’ Spring Training camp to talk extensions with the team’s front office (and, presumably, any agents should negotiations develop at a serious pace).  “I’d love to know we’ll have some of these guys beyond their arbitration years.  It becomes very valuable, because you have cost certainty,” Sherman said.  “Plus, if you’re going to lose them in five years, you’ve got to think about, how do you get a return on a really talented guy in their fourth or fifth year?”

There hasn’t been any real spending increase since Sherman officially took ownership of the Royals in late 2019, though naturally both the pandemic and the Royals’ ongoing rebuild impacted the club’s investment in its Major League roster.  This has also been an offseason of change for the franchise, with Picollo taking over baseball operations from Dayton Moore in September and Matt Quatraro hired as the Royals’ new manager.

With all this in mind, Kansas City’s past history of extensions may not be fully instructive in trying to predict how the Royals may head into this next wave of contract talks, as Picollo and Sherman could have a different approach than Moore and previous owner David Glass.  Since Witt, Pasquantino, Melendez, and Massey all just made their big league debuts in 2022, it represents some difference just in exploring extensions with such inexperienced players, though Moore was no stranger to this tactic — such players as Joakim Soria, Yordano Ventura, and Salvador Perez all had less than two seasons of MLB service time when they signed extensions during Moore’s tenure.

Singer has the most experience of the Royals’ younger core, and since he and the Royals are currently scheduled for an arbitration hearing, it stands to reason that the club might have already floated the idea of an extension to Singer and his reps at Excel Sports Management.  With the exception of a minor sophomore slump in 2021, Singer has been solid to excellent throughout his three Major League seasons, highlighted by a 3.23 ERA over 153 1/3 innings last season.

Singer is aiming for a $3.325MM salary for 2023, while K.C. countered with a $2.95MM figure.  Since Singer gained Super Two qualification, this will be the first of four trips through the arbitration process for the right-hander, so this upcoming hearing has added importance in establishing the starting point for Singer’s future salaries.  The Super Two status also adds even more incentive for the Royals to work out an extension with Singer, in order to gain some cost certainty over what could quickly become a large price tag if Singer keeps producing front-of-the-rotation numbers.

Between Singer’s performance, arbitration status, and the rising cost of pitching, Kansas City will have to pay handsomely in any extension.  However, the price tag will still likely be lower than the cost of extending Witt, even though has only completed one Major League season.  The 22-year-old hit .254/.294/.428 with 20 homers and 30 steals (in 37 chances) over 632 plate appearances, amassing 2.3 fWAR and finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting.  While the defensive metrics didn’t like Witt’s performance at either shortstop or third base last season, the Royals will deploy Witt as their regular shortstop in 2023, and Picollo feels settling in at a single position will improve Witt’s glovework.

Witt entered his rookie season as one of baseball’s top prospects, and has been projected for superstar potential even before the Royals selected him second overall in the 2019 draft.  Perez’s four-year, $81MM extension from the 2020-21 offseason is the priciest contract in Royals club history, but it isn’t a reach to say that a Witt extension would far surpass that deal, and possibly resemble Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension with the Rays.