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Cafardo’s Latest: Valencia, Royals, Liriano, Melancon, Santana

By Mark Polishuk | June 26, 2016 at 9:29am CDT

Here’s the latest hot stove buzz from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe…

  • The Royals and Indians are among the teams looking at Athletics third baseman Danny Valencia.  Kansas City has a void at third base with Mike Moustakas out for the season, and Valencia is a known quantity, having played for the team in 2014.  The Tribe have also received below-replacement level production at the hot corner all season, though Jose Ramirez has played well splitting time between third and left field.  Valencia could perhaps be a better fit for Cleveland in left given his rough defensive metrics (-13 Defensive Runs Saved, -26.9 UZR.150) at third base this season, though his bat certainly plays for either the Indians or Royals.  Valencia is hitting .333/.381/.552 with 11 homers over 218 PA for the A’s, though that comes with the caveat of a .373 BABIP.  The Mets are another team known to have interest in Valencia, though their subsequent signing of Jose Reyes may have addressed their infield needs.
  • While Valencia is a right-handed bat, Cafardo notes in another item that “the Royals seem to be in on every left-handed hitter.”  K.C. has posted middle-of-the-pack offensive statistics against righty pitching this year and is lacking in lineup balance, though the return of Alex Gordon from the DL should help on both counts.  Cafardo implies that Padres outfielder Jon Jay (a left-handed hitter) could be a Royals trade target.
  • The Marlins “possibly” have interest in Pirates southpaw Francisco Liriano.  The lefty is having a down year, though the Fish could see Liriano as an answer to their pitching search due to the presence of Miami VP of pitching development Jim Benedict (who was credited with getting Liriano on track when the two were in Pittsburgh).
  • Speaking of Pirates arms, closer Mark Melancon is also drawing attention from teams in need of bullpen help.  Cafardo cites the Astros, Giants, Mets and Red Sox as teams who could be potential fits.  Melancon is a free agent at the end of the season and thus could be a logical trade candidate if the Bucs decide to become deadline sellers.  Melancon has a 1.53 ERA through 29 1/3 IP this season, though advanced metrics indicate that this is the weakest of his four seasons as a Pirates.  Melancon has a 2.93 FIP, 4.18 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA, while experiencing drops in his strikeout and grounder rates (and an increase in BB/9).
  • Ervin Santana “is seen as perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market,” with one AL assistant GM describing the Twins veteran as “the one guy out there who could be a sure thing in the middle of the rotation.”  Santana has a 4.64 ERA, 6.37 K/9 and 2.39 K/BB rate over 77 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators backing up his unimpressive ERA.  I would guess Minnesota would have to eat a fair amount of money in a Santana trade, as the righty is owed roughly $33.8MM through the 2018 season (plus a $14MM club/vesting option for 2019).
  • Even a mid-tier arm like Santana could draw trade interest, however, as Cafardo predicts that little pitching will be available at the deadline.  Teams may focus more on offense, and Cafardo lists 15 position players who could be targeted as we approach August 1.  Many of the names have already cropped up in trade rumors, though Cafardo speculates that some unlikely names as Joe Mauer or Khris Davis could also get some attention.
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Athletics Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Danny Valencia Ervin Santana Francisco Liriano Jon Jay Mark Melancon

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Examining The Yulieski Gurriel Market

By Mark Polishuk | June 21, 2016 at 12:06pm CDT

Yulieski Gurriel officially became a free agent last week, making the Cuban star into the biggest X-factor of the summer trade market.  For teams hesitant to give up young talent in a trade for a current MLB hitter, signing Gurriel would be the intriguing alternative.  Why lose both premium prospects and money (in the form of a pre-existing contract) when you could just spend to sign arguably Cuba’s best player?

Of course, trading for a known MLB quantity is also the safer route, as Gurriel has a few question marks.  He just turned 32 years old, so (while his recent numbers in Japan and Cuba were as impressive as ever) Gurriel is at best nearing the end of his prime years and at worst would have his decline phase hastened by higher caliber of Major League pitching.  Gurriel wouldn’t be an immediate upgrade either, as he’d need at least a few weeks in the minors due to not playing in actual game conditions since defecting in February.

Rightly or wrongly, Gurriel’s stature may also be affected by the fact that several other high-profile Cuban players recently signed to big contracts (i.e. Hector Olivera, Yasmany Tomas, Rusney Castillo) have stumbled at the Major League level, while the likes of Yasiel Puig and to some extent Jose Abreu have struggled after hot starts to their MLB careers.  The fact that Gurriel is significantly older and more experienced than almost all of these players could work in his favor, or it could work against him — a younger player could be seen as still able to be molded, whereas if Gurriel is too “set in his ways,” it might quickly become apparent that he isn’t cut out for a long stint in the bigs.

On the flip side, Gurriel’s track record is so impressive that he could be well worth the risk.  He has a career .335/.417/.580 slash line and 250 homers over 5491 plate appearances, mostly in Serie Nacional, Cuba’s top league.  Baseball America’s Ben Badler named Gurriel as Cuba’s top player in April 2015, citing his well-rounded approach to the plate, plus raw power, above-average third base defense and ability to be “playable” at second base if a Major League team wanted to use him at the keystone.  Badler used Hanley Ramirez and David Wright as “similar value” comps, which certainly sets a high ceiling for Gurriel’s potential in the majors.

Olivera signed a six-year, $62.5MM deal with the Dodgers just before his 30th birthday.  Though Gurriel will be over two years older when he signs his MLB contract, MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently speculated that Gurriel could land a similar deal in terms of average annual value, if not length.  Something in the range of a four-year, $40-44MM contract seems like a fair estimate as a floor for Gurriel’s deal, possibly with incentive clauses or a fifth-year vesting option included.

Given that Gurriel has said that he would accept not playing with his younger brother “if the circumstances don’t permit it,” Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s market may not be too significant a factor in Yulieski’s free agency.  The younger Gurriel hasn’t been declared a free agent yet, and since he doesn’t turn 23 until October 19, he still falls under international bonus pool guidelines.  Assuming he doesn’t become a free agent until after the new international market opens on July 2, Lourdes’ market will be short a third of the league (the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Rays, Red Sox, Royals and Yankees), as all of those teams are limited to signings of $300K or less due to past overages of the spending pool limits.  While it’s certainly possible that one of the other 20 teams could look to sign both Gurriels, by this point it’s more likely that Yulieski will want to begin his MLB career soon and Lourdes will wait until October to maximize his payday…unless a team maneuvers around the international signing rules, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron hints.

Taking just the elder Gurriel on his own, however, let’s look at the teams who could be most likely to sign the 32-year-old to fill a need at the hot corner, second base or perhaps even left field.

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FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently speculated that the Giants could use Gurriel in left next season if Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco leave in free agency.  Perhaps more directly, Gurriel could help San Francisco at third either now or in the future, as Matt Duffy is still flashing an excellent glove but has been a sub-replacement level hitter this season.

Gurriel hasn’t played the outfield since 2005, however, so it’s probably unlikely that he would take on essentially a new position on top of all the other adjustments that he’ll face in coming to the major leagues.  While the Giants are a team that could use Gurriel in left after a full offseason of preparation, we can probably write off clubs that could use a left field upgrade now but are otherwise set at third and second.  By this reasoning, I’d argue the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Nationals, Red Sox and Rockies probably won’t be in on Gurriel.

Likewise, a few other contenders or non-contenders can probably also be written out due to a lack of positional need or due to the fact that they’re rebuilding: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Tigers, Twins and Yankees.

(Bronx fans may balk at their team being included on that list given how little Chase Headley and Starlin Castro have produced, though I don’t find the Yankees to be a great match for Gurriel.  Headley and Castro are respectively under contract through 2018 and 2019, and the Yankees front office is less open to eating money on contracts than in past years.  As much as Gurriel may like to play for the Yankees and with former Cuban teammate Aroldis Chapman, NJ Advance Media’s Brendan Kuty notes that adding another pricey mid-30’s player doesn’t make sense for the aging Yankees roster.)

I didn’t include every rebuilding team on that list, as teams like the Braves and Reds aren’t planning on being bottom-dwellers for very long.  (Atlanta, in particular, could look to contend as soon as next season when its new ballpark opens.)  It would admittedly be surprising to see either Atlanta or Cincinnati sign Gurriel, though it wouldn’t be out of the question given how both clubs lack a long-term answer at third base.

It’s worth noting that the Braves and Reds are also two teams with the international pool space to make a play for Lourdes Gurriel before October, so they could aim to sign both brothers.  The Braves are known to be planning a big splurge in the coming international signing period, while the Reds may already be approaching their 2016-17 pool limit due to their apparent agreement with Alfredo Rodriguez, so they could decide to make a bigger splash by pursuing Lourdes.  The Phillies face a longer rebuilding period, though as Dave Cameron noted in his previously-linked piece, they could also aim to sign both Gurriel brothers and perhaps then even shop Yulieski in a year or two if he establishes himself as a quality MLB player.

The Marlins are probably set in the infield with Martin Prado at third and Derek Dietrich at second, with Dee Gordon due back from his 80-game suspension in August.  Miami is usually connected to Cuban players in rumors based on geography alone, however, and there is a long-term scenario where signing Gurriel makes sense.  The Fish could sign Gurriel and then trade Prado (a free agent this winter), though they are said to be loath to trade a piece from their Major League roster.  Gordon’s ineligibility for postseason play looms larger with the Fish in the NL wild card hunt, so another infield upgrade isn’t out of the question.

The White Sox, A’s, Padres and Angels are all somewhat in the same boat as clubs who could perhaps be best served by a rebuild but still have an eye towards contending this year or reloading for 2017.  All four teams, therefore, can’t be written out as contenders for Gurriel, especially since Todd Frazier is the only second or third baseman on any of the clubs who’s playing like a solid long-term piece (and even Frazier has slumped to near replacement-level after a hot start).

Chicago could look to move Frazier to DH given his suddenly poor defensive metrics, or the Sox could use Gurriel at second in place of the struggling Brett Lawrie.  Oakland may have a sudden opening at third if Danny Valencia is traded, though while the A’s have made some big international signings in the past, they may not be able to afford Gurriel’s price tag.  San Diego is another team known to be planning a big international spending spree, so the Padres could also factor into the Lourdes Gurriel package deal as well.  The Angels’ woeful farm system leaves them unable to trade for big upgrades, so signing a player like Gurriel may be the best way to add a premium talent.  Gurriel’s deal would likely put the Halos over the luxury tax limit for two seasons in a row, unless they can unload enough salary to get under the threshold either this year or next.

The Cubs and Astros have needs at third base now, though they’re both potentially so stocked with young talent that signing a 32-year-old may not make much sense.  Chicago could sign Gurriel and then move Kris Bryant or Ben Zobrist to left, which would handle the Cubs’ need in that position.  Once Kyle Schwarber returns healthy next year, however, that leaves the Cubs with a position glut.  The Astros could use Gurriel now to solidify third, moving Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena into their very unsettled first base mix.  For the future, Gurriel may not have a spot in Houston unless he plays DH or (like the Giants scenario) he moves to left to replace a departed free agent (in this case, Colby Rasmus).  Top prospect Alex Bregman is ripping up Double-A pitching and has already seen some time at third base in preparation for a future position change since Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve have the middle infield locked down.

The Royals and Mets both have clear needs at third with Mike Moustakas and David Wright on the DL.  Gurriel could step right in as Kansas City’s third baseman, and once Moustakas returns next year, Gurriel could shift to second (provided that Whit Merrifield ever comes back to Earth) or get time at DH should Kendrys Morales leave in free agency.

Gurriel could likewise play third base for New York in Wright’s absence and then be an option at second in 2017 if Neil Walker leaves in free agency.  Perhaps the likelier scenario, however, is that Dilson Herrera plays second and Gurriel remains at third with Wright transitioning to first base (both to keep him healthy and for defensive reasons).

Both K.C. and New York could face issues meeting Gurriel’s price tag, however, a problem shared by the Indians — Cleveland has scouted both Gurriel brothers but probably can’t afford either.  Jose Ramirez’s breakout year as a utilityman as put him in the conversation for the Tribe’s third base situation, though the club is still lacking a long-term answer.  For this season, it’s more likely that the Indians will try to get by with Ramirez and Juan Uribe rather than sign Gurriel.

This leaves the Dodgers, which is perhaps fitting since they’ve expressed interest in Gurriel and have also easily been baseball’s biggest spenders in the Cuban market in recent years.  L.A. has received relatively little production for all the millions spent on Cuban players, though given the franchise’s seemingly endless budget for international spending, the Dodgers seem perfectly willing to keep spending until they find paydirt.

Justin Turner and Chase Utley are second and third in fWAR among Dodgers position players, though they’re going in opposite directions; Turner has gotten hot after a slow start and Utley has had a rough June after playing well in April and May.  Both are free agents after the season, so Los Angeles could use Gurriel at third or second in 2017 if one or both of Turner/Utley leaves.  For this year, Gurriel could step in at second if Utley’s numbers begin to resemble his subpar 2015 stats, or the Dodgers are one of the few teams that could afford to have Gurriel as a glorified reserve player for the rest of the season.

Since Gurriel’s market has technically just opened up, it’s tough to forecast when exactly he could sign.  Some teams could wait until Lourdes Gurriel’s free agency is granted, in order to negotiate with both brothers as a package deal.  Others may prefer to explore some less expensive infield upgrades (e.g. Danny Valencia) before making on an eight-figure outlay on a player with no Major League experience.  As various second and third basemen either come off the trade board or see their asking prices rise to unreasonable heights, however, Gurriel will become more attractive as  a potentially simple way to add infield pop.

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MLBTR Originals Yuliesky Gourriel

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Quick Hits: Crawford, Rays, Gurriel, Drury, Mets, Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | June 19, 2016 at 10:44pm CDT

Now that the NBA season has come to a spectacular conclusion, check out Hoops Rumors (the basketball wing of the Trade Rumors family) for all of your hardcourt news during what is sure to be a fascinating NBA offseason.  Here are some items from around baseball as we wrap up the weekend…

  • The Rays would be interested in talking with Carl Crawford if the veteran was open to returning to his old team, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Crawford can be signed for the league minimum after being released by the Dodgers, as L.A. would be responsible for the rest of the approximately $35MM remaining on the outfielder’s contract.  Crawford still put up fairly productive numbers as a Dodger despite a plethora of injuries, so he could be of us to a Rays team that has three outfielders (Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza, Brandon Guyer) on the DL.
  • From that same item, Topkin looks at some of the major names who could have been Rays had the club drafted differently or kept future stars at earlier stages in their development.  Topkin notes that every team in baseball could create a similar “what if?” roster but given how much Tampa relies on cheap young talent via the draft, it’s particularly intriguing to imagine a reality where the likes of Nolan Arenado, Buster Posey or Andrew McCutchen became Rays (especially since the players Tampa Bay drafted ahead of them all became busts).
  • The Diamondbacks’ Brandon Drury is a fit as a possible third base target for the Mets, though a source tells John Harper of the New York Daily News that Arizona holds Drury in high value.  For Drury, the D’Backs would likely ask the Mets for someone like Zack Wheeler in return, which Harper figures is way too high a price in a one-for-one trade.  Drury was actually demoted today by the D’Backs in an effort to give him regular playing time rather than ride the bench on Arizona’s crowded roster.  The 23-year-old has a .270/.310/.450 slash line and eight homers over 213 PA for the Snakes, numbers boosted by a huge performance over the first six weeks of the season.
  • From that same Harper item, two scouts discussed Cuban superstar Yulieski Gurriel, noting that while Gurriel has looked impressive in the past, they would need a fresh look given Gurriel’s age (32).  That age will surely limit the size of Gurriel’s eventual contract, as “even if he looks good in a workout, I wouldn’t give him more than two years,” one scout said, though he did predict an average annual value for Gurriel in the range of $10-$11MM per season.  As one former Mets player anonymously told Harper, Gurriel makes a lot of sense for New York to replace the injured David Wright at third base.
  • Though the Phillies have very little money tied up in future salary commitments beyond this season, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer doubts the club will be significant spenders in free agency this winter.  The Phils are still comitted to their youth movement, so it doesn’t make much sense to sign a big-ticket veteran at this stage in the rebuilding process.  With another year or two to establish the young core, Gelb figures the Phillies could strike in the 2017-18 free agent market or the star-studded 2018-19 market.
  • Mark Lowe signed a two-year, $11MM free agent deal with the Tigers last winter but has struggled horribly in Detroit, posting a 10.71 ERA over 21 innings.  There isn’t much the Tigers can do with Lowe, MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes, unless they’re willing to eat the remaining money or if Lowe is willing to accept a minor league assignment.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Detroit Tigers New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Tampa Bay Rays Brandon Drury Carl Crawford Mark Lowe Yuliesky Gourriel

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Twins To Sign First-Rounder Alex Kirilloff

By Mark Polishuk | June 19, 2016 at 9:31pm CDT

The Twins have a verbal agreement in place with first-round draft pick Alex Kirilloff, ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link), and the deal will become official once Kirilloff takes his team physical later this week.  The 19-year-old first baseman/outfielder will receive the recommended bonus slot price (just over $2.817MM) attached to the 15th overall pick.

Kirilloff was also ranked as the 15th-best prospect in this year’s draft class on Baseball America’s top 200 list, with MLB.com ranking him 18th and ESPN’s Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen ranking him 19th.  MLB.com’s scouting report describes Kirilloff as a good fit for a corner outfield spot in the majors, though the Twins were “buying the bat” with due to Kirilloff’s “ability to barrel the ball consistently and…considerable raw power.”  The high schooler received consistent scouting grades for all five tool categories (hit, power, run, arm, field), with all five grades falling within the 50-55 range on the 20-80 scouting scale.

The Twins’ draft bonus pool of $8,153,500 was the 11th-highest of any club.  Minnesota has thus far reportedly reached below-slot agreements with both of their second round picks, while going $500K over slot for a deal with 11th-rounder Tyler Benninghoff.

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2016 Amateur Draft Signings Minnesota Twins Alex Kirilloff

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Dodgers Acquire Chris Taylor From Mariners For Zach Lee

By Mark Polishuk | June 19, 2016 at 8:11pm CDT

The Dodgers and Mariners announced a trade that will send infielder Chris Taylor to Los Angeles in exchange for righty Zach Lee.

Taylor, 25, has appeared in just three games at the MLB level this season but played in 84 games for the Mariners in 2014-15, hitting .239/.296/.296 over 253 plate appearances.  Taylor received quite a bit of playing time at shortstop due to Brad Miller’s struggles and injuries, though obviously he didn’t enough himself to gain a roster foothold before Ketel Marte took over the position.  A fifth-rounder in the 2012 draft, Taylor swung a powerful bat in the minors, hitting .314/.401/.455 over 1856 PA in the Seattle farm system.

The vast majority of Taylor’s Major League experience has come at short, though he has seen a significant amount of time at second in the minors, as well as a handful of games at third.  He can provide the Dodgers with some versatile infield depth at either the major or minor league level, though the team already has Enrique Hernandez and Howie Kendrick as multi-position assets on the roster.  Given Taylor’s impressive minor league numbers, it’s not out of the question that he could unlock some of that hitting prowess in the bigs.

Lee was a staple of top-100 prospect rankings after the Dodgers picked him 28th overall in the 2010 draft, agreeing to a $5.25MM bonus to choose baseball over playing football at LSU.  Over the years, Lee has often been mentioned as potential trade chip L.A. could use in many possible deals for big-name players, though his prospect stock dimmed after a rough 2014 season at Triple-A Albuquerque (in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League).  He rebounded with a good 2015 that saw him cut down on his homers and walks, though the long ball problems returned with a force this year.  Lee posted a 4.89 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB in 73 2/3 Triple-A innings with 11 homers allowed.

The 2016 Baseball America Prospect Handbook dropped Lee to 15th in their ranking of the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects prior to this season, describing his stuff as “fringy to average across the board” and describing him as a potential back-end starter.  The Mariners are optioning Lee to Triple-A, though he could get to the bigs since Seattle is struggling with a number of injuries in both the rotation and bullpen.  Given how Taylor was an expendable piece for the M’s, Lee is a pretty good return for Seattle if he emerges as a post-hype prospect.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Seattle Mariners Transactions Chris Taylor Zach Lee

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Injury Updates: Fowler, Alvarez, A’s, Smith

By Mark Polishuk | June 19, 2016 at 7:36pm CDT

Here’s the latest on some notable injury situations around the game.  Be sure to check out Roster Resource to see how teams’ depth charts will be impacted by these injuries…

  • Dexter Fowler exited Saturday’s game in the first inning after suffering a hamstring injury while running out a grounder.  The Cubs haven’t yet made a decision on whether or not Fowler will need a DL stint, Joe Maddon told media (including MLB.com’s Cody Stavenhagen).  Fowler has cooled off in June after a blistering start to the season, though he’s still hitting .290/.398/.483 with seven homers over 284 plate appearances.  Jason Heyward is the most likely candidate to take over in center field should Fowler miss time, though with Jorge Soler and Tommy La Stella already on the DL, Fowler’s absence would be a big hit to the Cubs’ roster depth.
  • The Athletics have shut down Henderson Alvarez and the righty has a visit scheduled with Dr. James Andrews, manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jane Lee).  Alvarez was pitching in what was supposed to be his final minor league rehab start on Saturday night when he left the game early due to discomfort in his throwing shoulder.  He underwent surgery on that same shoulder last July and hasn’t thrown a Major League pitch since, which led to the Marlins non-tendering Alvarez over the winter and the A’s signing him to a one-year, $4.25MM contract.
  • In better injury news out of Oakland, Melvin said that Rich Hill and Sean Manaea both threw bullpen sessions on Sunday and are on track for, respectively, a simulated game and another session later this week.  Manaea is one of the Athletics’ top pitching prospects while Hill could be a major trade deadline chip if he proves he’s healthy after missing almost a month with a groin strain.
  • Speedy Braves outfielder Mallex Smith suffered a broken left thumb after being hit by a pitch on Sunday and is sidelined indefinitely, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.  More will be known about Smith’s DL timeline when he visits a hand specialist tomorrow.  Smith got off to a very slow start at the plate after making his MLB debut earlier this season and is still just hitting .241/.314/.386 , though he has displayed a good center field glove and is 8-for-8 in his last eight stolen base attempts.
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Athletics Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Dexter Fowler Henderson Alvarez Mallex Smith Rich Hill Sean Manaea

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Rockies Place Tyler Chatwood On 15-Day DL

By Mark Polishuk | June 19, 2016 at 6:49pm CDT

The Rockies have placed right-hander Tyler Chatwood on the 15-day disabled list with a mid-back strain, the team announced.  Eddie Butler is slated to replace Chatwood in Colorado’s rotation, while righty Scott Oberg was called up from Triple-A to add some bullpen depth in a corresponding move to the DL placement.

[Related: Updated Colorado Rockies Depth Chart]

Chatwood suffered back spasms during his start yesterday and was forced to leave the game in the second inning.  Rockies manager Walt Weiss told reporters (including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding) that he hopes Chatwood will only miss the minimum 15 days, though he noted that “with a pitcher you’ve got to build them back up a little bit.”  Some particular care could be necessary with Chatwood, who missed all of 2015 recovering from his second career Tommy John surgery.

Thus far, Chatwood’s return has gone very well.  The righty has posted a 3.15 ERA over 82 2/3 innings this season, emerging as the ace of Colorado’s rotation.  Advanced metrics (3.90 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA) haven’t been as impressed with Chatwood, no doubt due to his good fortune with BABIP (.271) and strand rate (75.1%), as well as his inability to miss bats.  Chatwood has just a 5.57 K/9 and 1.83 K/BB rate, though he makes up for that lack of strikeouts with a whopping 58.7% grounder rate.  That’s an important skill to have when half your starts are at Coors Field, though Chatwood has the expectedly drastic home/away splits: a 5.10 ERA in seven home starts and just a 1.25 ERA in seven road outings.

Losing Chatwood for any length of time is a big blow for the Rockies, who have long struggled to find any consistent pitching help.  If he misses any significant time beyond the 15-day DL stint, it could also impact Colorado’s trade deadline plans.  The Rox fell to 32-36 after today’s loss to the Marlins, though they’re still only 4.5 games out of the last NL wild card spot.  Given the rough overall state of their rotation, it’s likely the Rockies were going to focus on starting pitching anyway if they became deadline buyers.  If Chatwood’s absence causes them to fall too far out of the race, however, the Rockies could instead look to sell.

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Colorado Rockies Tyler Chatwood

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Quick Hits: July 2 Market, Giants, Dodgers, Ubaldo

By Mark Polishuk | June 12, 2016 at 10:59pm CDT

Some news from around baseball as we wrap up the weekend…

  • With the next international signing window opening on July 2, Baseball America’s Ben Badler profiles (in two separate pieces) 10 youngsters likely to receive seven-figure bonuses.  Kevin Maitan is perhaps the mostly highly-touted player of the entire 2016-17 class, as the 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop is rumored to be in line for a bonus north of $4MM, most likely from the Braves.  “Nobody is a can’t miss but it’s hard to see him missing,” one scout says of Maitan.  As always, it’s well worth getting a BA subscription to read the full scouting reports and news, including how the Braves, Padres and A’s are connected to two players each, with others rumored to be signing with the Nationals, Astros, Rockies and Mariners.
  • The Giants and Dodgers both pursued some major free agent arms last winter, and the results of that hunt are being seen this season, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes.  After missing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants pivoted to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, who have both been workhorses for the club.  The Dodgers weren’t interested in either Cueto or Samardzija at the price of their respective contracts with the Giants, and according to Cueto via an interpreter, the Dodgers never offered him a contract at all.  “They were telling me to wait,” Cueto said.  After missing out on Greinke, L.A. made two less-expensive signings in Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir, though as Shaikin notes, the Dodgers’ main issue this season has been a lack of offense.
  • Ubaldo Jimenez was rocked for five runs in just a third of an inning today, the shortest start of his Major League career.  Jimenez now has a 6.89 ERA over 62 2/3 IP this season, leading Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun to wonder just how much longer the Orioles can continue using him in the rotation.  Jimenez can’t be sent with the minors without his permission, and releasing him isn’t likely with roughly $21MM owed to him through the 2017 season.
  • If the Orioles do replace Jimenez in the rotation, Dylan Bundy won’t be a candidate, as Encina details in another Baltimore Sun piece that the O’s are focusing on slowly rebuilding Bundy’s arm strength with an eye towards having him contend for a starting spot next spring.  Buck Showalter said the aim is to have Bundy throw 60-75 innings out of the bullpen this season.  Bundy, the fourth overall pick of the 2011 draft, has had his career delayed by several injuries, including Tommy John surgery.
  • Robinson Cano’s decision to sign with the Mariners after the 2013 season led to shockwaves throughout the second base market that could still be felt in some of this past offseason’s moves, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes.  Of the six teams (the Cubs, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, Mets and Yankees) Sherman ranks as the most impacted by Cano’s signing, the Yankees are ranked last, as it is still unclear as to whether Starlin Castro is the club’s long-term answer at the keystone.
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2016-17 International Prospects Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Dylan Bundy Jeff Samardzija Johnny Cueto Kevin Maitan Robinson Cano Ubaldo Jimenez

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Central Notes: Stearns, Braun, Pirates, Burnett, Shaw

By Mark Polishuk | June 12, 2016 at 9:55pm CDT

Here are some news items from both the NL and AL Central…

  • In an interview with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio link), Brewers GM David Stearns discussed that his team’s plan “at this stage [is to] acquire and develop the best young talent we possibly can,” and thus if teams come calling about Milwaukee’s young players, Stearns would want an “exceptionally high” return.  Stearns, however, didn’t exactly say that this makes a veteran player like Jonathan Lucroy or Ryan Braun more likely to dealt.  In fact, he noted that the possibility of trading Braun hasn’t been something that he’s had to seriously consider in his brief time as Milwaukee’s GM, and “there is no motivation for us to move…an elite-level player.”  That said, Stearns did say he’d already talked to both Braun and Lucroy about the trade rumors circling around both men and said he’d keep them appraised of any developments should they arise.  Stearns expects “active discussions” leading up to the trade deadline he said the Brewers “are in a situation where we need to be open-minded and we need to be open to any possibility.”
  • If the Cubs keep running away with the NL Central, ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) feels the Pirates may focus on deadline acquisitions that can help them in 2017, as reaching the coin flip that is the Wild Card game isn’t worth giving up substantial talent for a short-term rental.
  • While the Pirates may have a need at catcher, both Clint Hurdle and Neal Huntington felt John Jaso’s past concussion history ruled him out of consideration for work behind the plate, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets.  Chris Stewart and the newly-acquired Erik Kratz look to handle the catching duties while Francisco Cervelli is on the disabled list.
  • It doesn’t appear that Sean Burnett will exercise his June 15 opt-out clause even he isn’t on the Twins’ Major League roster, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (via Twitter).  Burnett signed a minor league contract with Minnesota in May, his fourth minors deal with as many clubs since November following prior agreements with the Braves, Dodgers and Nationals.  The veteran southpaw has a 2.66 ERA over 20 1/3 relief innings at Triple-A this season as he looks to return to the bigs for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014.
  • Bryan Shaw had another tough outing on Saturday, leading Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer to wonder if the Indians need to look for a more reliable setup man at the deadline.  Shaw’s season has been a roller-coaster, going from a terrible April to lights-out in May and thus far shaky in June, all adding up to a 5.18 ERA, 9.25 K/9 and 3.33 BB/9 over 24 1/3 innings.  Shaw’s main problem has been the long ball, as his whopping 2.2 HR/9 is more than triple his career average prior to this season.
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Cleveland Guardians Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins Pittsburgh Pirates Bryan Shaw David Stearns John Jaso Jonathan Lucroy Ryan Braun Sean Burnett

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Rays To Promote Blake Snell, Move Matt Andriese To Bullpen

By Mark Polishuk | June 12, 2016 at 8:22pm CDT

The Rays will call up top pitching prospect Blake Snell for a start on Thursday, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times).  Righty Matt Andriese, who has a 2.82 ERA over seven starts for the Rays this season, will be shifted into a fireman role in the bullpen.

This is the second time Snell has been promoted, as the 23-year-old southpaw was called upon for a spot start against the Yankees on April 23.  Snell looked good in his MLB debut, holding New York to one run on two hits and a walk over five innings, recording six strikeouts along the way.  He was returned to Triple-A Durham afterwards, where he has enjoyed an impressive season: 3.29 ERA, 12.9 K/9 and a 3.21 K/BB rate over 63 innings.

Cash gave no indication as to how long Snell’s latest stint the Tampa rotation could last, though as Mooney notes, Snell won’t amass enough service time to attain Super Two status should he remain on the Major League roster for the rest of the season.  That being the case, there’s little reason the Rays wouldn’t keep the lefty around if he pitches well.

It may be unfair to solely attribute financial reasons to Snell’s minor league stay, of course, as he has exhibited some control issues over his pro career — 28 walks over his 63 Triple-A innings this season and a 4.4 BB/9 over his 485 frames in the minors.  An extra bit of Triple-A seasoning also may have been warranted simply due to the fact that Snell (while picked 52nd overall in the 2011 draft) was somewhat of a middling prospect before his breakout 2015 campaign.  That massive season saw Snell jump three levels in the Rays’ farm system and land himself a prominent spot on the preseason prospect rankings lists (ranked 12th by Baseball America and MLB.com, 14th by ESPN’s Keith Law, 21st by Baseball Prospectus).

Snell’s continued success this year, however, earned him that April start and now what could be a prolonged look in Tampa’s rotation.  The Rays entered the season expecting to be led by their starters, though only Jake Odorizzi and Andriese have performed consistently well.  Chris Archer (4.61 ERA), Drew Smyly (4.94) and Matt Moore (5.56) have all had their share of struggles, though advanced metrics indicate that all three are significantly outperforming their inflated ERAs.

Andriese’s 2.82 ERA, by contrast, has perhaps a bit fortunate, as ERA predictors (3.22 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA) paint a less flattering view of his performance.  Andriese doesn’t miss many bats (6.04 K/9) and relies on grounders and soft contract to rack up outs.  It’s not a dissimilar arsenal to that of Erasmo Ramirez, who has also pitched quite well for Tampa in a fireman role this season.  Having a pair of versatile, multi-inning relievers could provide a boost to a Rays bullpen that has been plagued with injuries, most notably closer Brad Boxberger spending almost the entire season on the DL.

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Tampa Bay Rays Blake Snell Matt Andriese

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