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Poll: Chris Carpenter’s Future

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The month of February hasn’t been kind to the Cardinals. First they failed to reach an agreement with Albert Pujols on a long-term contract, then they lost Nick Punto for up to 12 weeks with a hernia, and then they lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery. That’s enough bad news to last St. Louis the season, nevermind Spring Training.

In the wake of Wainwright’s injury, it’s been speculated that Chris Carpenter could become available in a trade at some point should the Cardinals fall out of contention. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Carpenter wouldn’t stand in the way of a deal (he can veto any trade thanks to his ten-and-five rights), and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggested the right-hander could be a fit for the pitching-starved Yankees.

As great as Carpenter is, he’s neither young nor cheap. He’ll turn 36 in April and his contract guarantees him $15MM this season, after which a $15MM club option ($1MM buyout) comes into play. With Pujols’ impending free agency hanging over their heads and two more seasons until Kyle Lohse’s $12.2MM annual salary comes off the books, it’s possible the Cardinals will look to shed Carpenter’s salary and use that money towards keeping their superstar first baseman. It’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the nine-figure contract Pujols will command, but every little bit helps.

Carpenter has pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 52.7% ground ball rate since coming back from Tommy John surgery in late 2008. He’s shown no ill-effects from the procedure, throwing at least 192 innings in each of the last two seasons. If made available, teams would be lining up to acquire him, and not just the Yankees either. However, it’s possible that Carpenter would want his 2012 option picked up in exchange for agreeing to a trade, which could his limit market.

It seems unlikely that St. Louis would look to trade pitching – quality pitching at that – after Wainwright’s injury, but moving Carpenter would have to at least be considered if they fall out of contention at some point. The potential return in the form of young players and cash savings could be too good to pass up.

What will happen with Chris Carpenter in 2011?
He'll be traded 38.49% (3,496 votes)
He'll stay with the Cardinals and they'll pick up his option 37.49% (3,406 votes)
He'll stay with the Cardinals but they won't pick up his option 24.02% (2,182 votes)
Total Votes: 9,084

Chad Durbin Close To Signing With Indians

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FRIDAY, 8:10pm: Durbin's agent is in Arizona, talking to the Indians and other interested teams, according to Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer (via Twitter).

FRIDAY, 10:33am: Durbin is close to signing with the Indians, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer says the team has no comment at this time (Twitter links).

THURSDAY, 5:56pm: The Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Rays, and Royals are also pursuing the hurler, tweets Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.

3:59pm: The Indians and free agent right-hander Chad Durbin are in talks according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (on Twitter), and a deal could happen within a day or two. 

Earlier this week we heard that the Red Sox, Rays, Phillies, Rangers, and Mariners were all in pursuit of the 33-year-old, who indicated that he would accept a minor league deal from Philadelphia if his "hand is forced because there are no Major League offers on the table." A few weeks ago Durbin said that he hoped to join a contender, which doesn't really define the Indians.

Cleveland is seeking a starting pitcher, having been connected to both Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Bonderman in recent weeks. Although Durbin hasn't started a game since 2007, he has 75 career MLB starts to his credit and may wish to give it another shot. The bullpen is always a fallback.

Make Or Break Year: Bobby Abreu

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5061012196515_Athletics_at_Angels From 1998 through 2009, just nine players in baseball posted an on-base percentage of at least .400 (min. 6,000 PA), and only one did it with more than 100 total steals. That would be Bobby Abreu. From ages 24 through 35 ('98-'09), Abreu hit .301/.406/.497 with 253 homers and 341 steals for the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels. He wasn't quite a five-tool threat because his defense left a lot to be desired, but Abreu was an offensive force for more than a decade.

But in 2010, at age 36, the roof started to cave in. Abreu hit .255/.352/.435 overall, his lowest full season OPS ever. Although he still stole 24 bases, he was caught ten times for a 70.5% success rate, well below his 75.8% success rate from '98-'09. Abreu's first 40 double, 20 homer season since 2004 still resulted in the lowest full season slugging percentage of his career. 

Both the player and club are in a bind in 2011. Abreu's contract contains a $9MM vesting option for 2012 that will kick in with 433 plate appearances next year, a total he's reached every year since 1998. If the option vests, the Angels are on the hook for another year of Abreu's decline phase. If it doesn't, Abreu is a declining 37-year-old free agent that is best suited for designated hitter. Those guys aren't in high demand.

The Halos have the option of platooning Abreu in 2011, which would limit his plate appearances. He hit just .228/.296/.342 against southpaws in 2010, down from .267/.348/.386 in 2009 and .315/.370/.495 in 2008. The team doesn't appear to have an obvious right-handed platoon partner though, unless they try to really force the issue with someone like Brandon Wood or Bobby Wilson.

Abreu has long been a productive player in this league, one that should at least spark some Hall of Fame debate, but his best course of action in 2011 is to play well enough (and often enough) that his option kicks in. It's highly unlikely he'll find that kind of money on the open market after the season.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Torre, Angels, Pirates, Millwood, Tigers

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On this date last year, the Rangers voided Khalil Greene's $750K contract after he wasn't able to report to Spring Training due to social anxiety disorder. Greene did not play at all last season and remains a free agent.  

Here are today's batch of links…

  • Commissioner Bud Selig is scheduled to make a major announcement tomorrow, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Joe Torre will be hired as Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, meaning he'll oversee on-the-field activity for MLB.
  • Angels GM Tony Reagins spoke to Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times about the team's use of advanced statistics. "We definitely use them," said the GM. Front office member Justin Hollander said they "use it for base-running, offense, defense, everything out there … If [Reagins] asks me to look at a guy in terms of a long-term contract, trade, free-agent signing, minor leaguer, he will know what I'm thinking and assign a value to it."
  • Rob Biertempfel of The Pittburgh Tribune-Review says that the big test for Pirates owner Bob Nutting will be when young players like Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata are in line for long-term contract extensions. Team president Frank Coonelly recently spoke about what the team looks for when handing out such contracts.
  • Bernie Miklasz of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch isn't sure why the Cardinals are so averse to signing Kevin Millwood to a one-year deal in the wake of Adam Wainwright's injury. Yesterday we heard that GM John Mozeliak said the team will first look internally for a solution.
  • James Schmehl of MLive.com updates you on the 11 players from the Tigers' active roster last season that have since moved on. 

AL East Notes: Yankees, Werth, Pavano, Jays, Rays

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Seven years ago today, the Yankees signed Eduardo Nunez as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic. Now 23, Nunez is in the mix to be New York's utility infielder in 2011 after hitting .280/.321/.360 with more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) in his brief big league debut last season (53 PA).

Here are some more notes that have to do with the Yanks and their fellow AL East clubs…

  • Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees "have told their scouts to bear down on several teams they think could have starters available" in a trade this summer. The teams they are targeting include the Braves, Angels, A's, White Sox, and Cardinals according to Sherman.
  • Jayson Werth told SI.com's Jon Heyman that he had a "great" meeting with the Red Sox earlier this offseason, after which he figured they would offer six years (Twitter link). They only offered five, so he ended up with the Nationals.
  • Carl Pavano spoke to Kelsie Smith of The Pioneer Press about being pursued by the Yankees this offseason. "I don't think [the past] would be a hindrance, but there would have definitely been obstacles," said Pavano. "I'm not naïve enough to think that there wouldn't have been things I would have had to overcome, especially the trust of the fans and maybe some of the guys that were there. That's reality."
  • Richard Griffin of The Toronto Star notes (on Twitter) that four of the Blue Jays' ten highest paid players are former closers: Jason Frasor, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel.
  • When asked about the payroll disparity between his Rays and other teams in the division, Joe Maddon told Ken Davidoff of Newsday that he's "never seen a dollar bill throw a strike, or hit a homer, or whatever." (Twitter link)

Phillies Have Asked Nationals About Mike Morse

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1:23pm: Heyman says (on Twitter) the Nationals are not inclined to trade Morse to the Phillies, or anywhere else for that matter. They're intrigued by the work he's done with hitting coach Rick Eckstein.

12:29pm: After losing their top right-handed power threat this offseason, the Phillies have asked the Nationals about the availability of outfielder Mike Morse according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Philadelphia's lineup is predominantly left-handed with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Domonic Brown, something that might be exposed with the departure of Jayson Werth.

Morse, 29 next month, hit .289/.352/.519 with 12 doubles and 15 homers in just 293 plate appearances for Washington last year, his first regular playing time in the big leagues since 2005. He crushed lefty pitching, hitting .295/.374/.625 with eight long balls against them in just under a hundred trips to the plate. Although he has experience on the infield, most of Morse's playing time has come in the corner outfield spots in recent years. He'll earn $1.05MM in 2011, the first time he was eligible for arbitration.

The Nationals outfield is pretty crowded right now, with only Werth guaranteed a full-time job. The other two spots will go to some combination of Morse, Rick Ankiel, Roger Bernadina, and Nyjer Morgan. Jerry Hairston Jr. can also play the outfield, and the Nats have both Matt Stairs and Laynce Nix in camp on minor league contracts.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Pujols, Reyes, Rays, A’s

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On this date in 1973, the players and owners agreed to a new three-year collective bargaining agreement, ending the Spring Training lockout. The new deal introduced salary arbitration for players with two or more years of service to the game, as well as ten-and-five no-trade protection. While we wait to see what rule changes are included in the next CBA (due this December), here's the best the baseball blogosphere has to offers…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.

Coonelly On Budget, Draft Picks, Payroll, Extensions

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Kevin Creagh of Pirates Prospects recently interviewed Pirates team president Frank Coonelly, who spoke about a number of hot stove topics. Let's recap…

  • If GM Neal Huntington wants to make a move that would cause the team to exceed its budget, whether it be a trade, free agent, draft signing, etc., Coonelly said "Neal and his staff will make a case for such a decision and I will then take that case to [owner] Bob Nutting. If Bob agrees that the case has been made and that exceeding the budget for the proposed signing will not hinder our ability to make the other investments that need to be made, he will approve the acquisition."
  • Nutting and Coonelly will bring the fans' interest into the equation if a trade involves a popular player, such as Nate McLouth or Jason Bay.
  • "We need to reduce the compensatory selections so that the second selection of the club drafting first in the country is not 58 or 60 instead of 31," said Coonelly, with regards to the draft pick compensation system. "Now, [the Rays] received those selections because it lost good players in free agency but it is difficult for the draft to serve its purpose when there are so many compensatory selections before the second round."
  • The team would not be able to support a $70-80MM payroll right now, but they "will be able to support that payroll very soon if [their] fans believe that [they] now have a group of players in Pittsburgh and on its way here in the near future that is competitive."
  • Nutting told Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that payroll is not dependent on attendance. "We're not artificially handicapped by extreme limitations on dollars, as we have been in the past," said the owner. "I don't see there being an artificial constraint as we move forward."
  • Factors such as track record, health, makeup, and character go into the decision about whether or not to sign a player to a long-term deal. "We need to be convinced that we can count on the player over the long term and that requires trust in the player as a person and as a teammate," said Coonelly.

Coonelly also spoke about his day-to-day responsibilities, minority partners, and how he spends his free time.

Machado, Alonso & Valencia Hire Dan Lozano

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Not long after landing Nick Swisher, agent Dan Lozano has added Manny Machado, Yonder Alonso, and Danny Valencia to his list of clients according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick and Keith Law (all Twitter links). Machado and Alonso were named the 14th and 73rd best prospects in the game, respectively, by Baseball America just yesterday. Law notes that all three players than Miami roots.

Machado, 18, was the third overall pick in the 2010 draft. In his brief professional debut last summer (39 plate appearances), he hit .306/.359/.472 with a homer and as many walks (three) as strikeouts. In the 2011 edition of their Prospect Handbook, Baseball America said Machado "has the look of a perennial all-star" with a chance to "become a .300 hitter with 20 homers a season as he matures." Machado was previously being represented by Scott Boras.

Alonso, 24 in April, was the Reds' first round pick in 2008, seventh overall. He made his Major League debut last September, hitting just .207/.207/.276 with ten strikeouts and no walks in 29 plate appearances. Alonso is a .298/.368/.458 career hitters in the minors, and he told Crasnick that he left Legacy Sports "about a month ago." His salaries are controlled through 2012 thanks to the five-year, $4.55MM big league contract he signed out of the draft.

As a first baseman in the Reds' system, Alonso is stuck behind NL MVP Joey Votto, which is why the club has had him try third base and left field in the past. So far neither position has stuck, and Alonso could wind up trade bait.

Valencia, 26, emerged as the Twins third baseman last season, hitting .311/.351/.448 with seven homers in 322 plate appearances. He finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Carpenter Wouldn’t “Hold Back Or Veto” A Trade

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After losing one ace to Tommy John surgery, it seems highly unlikely that the Cardinals would look to move their other ace in a trade, but Chris Carpenter told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he wouldn't stand in the way of a deal…

"It's not up to me," said Carpenter. "If the Cardinals wanted to trade me, obviously I would go. There's no question about that. I'm not going hold back or veto or do anything like that if they're looking to move me.

"I'm not concerned about it, though. I'm concerned about getting myself ready to pitch at the beginning of the season."

Carpenter, 36 in April, is in the final guaranteed year of his contract and will earn $15MM in 2011. The team holds a $15MM club option ($1MM buyout) for his services in 2012, but perhaps they'd prefer to use that money to re-sign Albert Pujols. Carpenter can veto any trade thanks to his ten-and-five rights.

GM John Mozeliak spoke this morning about adding pitching, not subtracting it, and the Cardinals intend to make a run in the NL Central even without Adam Wainwright. Should they fall out of contention, midseason rumors about Carpenter's availability will only grow louder. Rosenthal suspects that the Yankees would be potential suitors, something Joel Sherman of The New York Post mentioned this morning.

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