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Diamondbacks Select Scott McGough

By Nick Deeds | April 27, 2025 at 1:11pm CDT

The Diamondbacks announced a series of roster moves this afternoon, headlined by them selecting the contract of right-hander Scott McGough. Right-hander Yilber Diaz was optioned to the minors in a corresponding move, and righty J.P. Feyereisen was designated for assignment to make room for McGough on the 40-man roster.

McGough, 35, was a fifth-round pick by the Dodgers in 2011 who debuted in the majors with the Marlins back in 2015. He made just six appearances for Miami before spending the following years bouncing around the minor leagues with Colorado and Baltimore until he departed stateside ball entirely ahead of his age-29 season to pitch for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yakult Swallows. He put together a very impressive resume in four seasons as the Swallows’ closer, with a 2.94 ERA in 232 2/3 innings of work and a 26.0% strikeout rate.

That performance was enough to get him stateside attention from Arizona, and McGough departed Japan to sign with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2023 season for $6.25MM guaranteed over two years. That decision proved to be a mistake for the Snakes. McGough was a below average but relatively passable middle reliever for Arizona in his first year with the club, posting a 4.73 ERA (93 ERA+) and a matching 4.76 FIP across 70 1/3 innings of work for the team. While he struck out a solid 25.6% of his opponents, McGough was held back by a 10% walk rate and troubles with the long ball as a whopping 24.6% of his fly balls left the yard for home runs.

That poor fortune led to some advanced metrics like his 3.49 SIERA pointing to better days ahead, but things got even worse in 2024 when his peripherals collapsed across the board. The righty’s age-34 season saw him post a 16.7% strikeout rate against a 14% walk rate, leaving him with a ghastly 7.44 ERA and a 6.04 FIP across his 26 appearances. The Diamondbacks made the easy decision to decline a 2025 club option on his services last winter, though they eventually re-signed him to a minor league deal in April. Now, he’ll be tabbed to help eat innings for a Diamondbacks bullpen that has surrendered a 4.69 ERA and recently lost one of its top relievers, A.J. Puk, to the injured list.

Making room for McGough on the 40-man roster is Feyereisen, who has been at Triple-A with the Diamondbacks after surrendering three runs (two earned) on three hits in two innings of work. The move comes as something of a surprise given his dominance at Triple-A Reno, where he’s posted a 0.96 ERA in 9 1/3 innings of work. That work came with just a 17.9% strikeout rate, however, and Feyereisen was torched for an 8.18 ERA in ten appearances with the Dodgers at the big league level just last year. The 32-year-old has been struggling to get back into a regular role in the majors ever since he underwent shoulder surgery with the Rays back in 2022 and has just 13 innings of work in the majors in the years since then. The Diamondbacks will have one week to either trade Feyereisen or attempt to pass him through waivers, at which point he’ll be able to either accept an outright assignment or reject it in favor of free agency should he not get claimed by a rival club before then.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Transactions J.P. Feyereisen Scott McGough Yilber Diaz

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Braves Claim Ian Anderson

By Nick Deeds | April 27, 2025 at 1:07pm CDT

The Braves and Angels announced this afternoon that Atlanta has claimed right-hander Ian Anderson off waivers from Los Angeles after he was designated for assignment by the latter club earlier in the week. This morning’s DFA of Jesse Chavez cleared a 40-man roster spot, so no corresponding move was necessary to complete the transaction.

Anderson, 27 next week, returns to Atlanta after spending just a month away from the organization. Drafted by the Braves third overall in the 2016 draft, Anderson made his MLB debut during the shortened 2020 season and made a huge impression over his first two seasons. in 30 starts between those two years, Anderson tallied 160 2/3 innings of work, pitched to a 3.25 ERA with a 3.80 FIP, and struck out 24.5% of opponents. He was also a key factor in both the club’s trip to the NLCS in 2020 and their World Series championship run the following year, giving him a tidy 1.26 ERA and 27.6% strikeout rate for his career in the postseason.

While the righty entered his age-24 season as a front-end starter for Atlanta and a beloved postseason hero, Anderson’s 2022 campaign did not go as planned. He struggled badly through 22 starts, posting a lackluster 5.00 ERA despite a decent 4.25 FIP in 111 2/3 frames. The righty was sidelined in August of that year and then went under the knife for Tommy John surgery in early 2023 before making an appearance. He missed all of that year while rehabbing, and made 15 starts at the minor league level last year, though he didn’t come back up to the majors despite his solid 3.44 ERA in 68 innings of work.

With Anderson out of options entering 2025, Max Fried and Charlie Morton having departed the club via free agency, and Spencer Strider ticketed to begin the season on the injured list, many penciled Anderson in for a starting job with Atlanta entering this season. Unfortunately for the righty, he looked wild in camp with a 24% walk rate and was designated for assignment ahead of Opening Day. He was then swapped to the Angels in exchange for Jose Suarez and headed to Anaheim for his first big league appearance in two and a half years. His brief stay in California did not go well, as Anderson struggled to a 11.57 ERA across seven appearances before being DFA’d again. Now back in Atlanta, he appears ticketed for a bullpen role once he rejoins the club in Colorado tomorrow. Righty Davis Daniel replaced Jesse Chavez in the bullpen as the primary long relief option earlier this morning, though it seems as though his stay with the Braves may be short now that Anderson is back in the fold.

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Angels Transactions Ian Anderson

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Rockies Designate Lucas Gilbreath For Assignment

By Nick Deeds | April 27, 2025 at 11:05am CDT

The Rockies announced a series of roster moves this morning, including their previously reported trade for infielder Alan Trejo. Trejo has been selected to the roster, with catcher Braxton Fulford having been optioned to make room for Trejo on the active roster. Southpaw Lucas Gilbreath was designated for assignment to clear space for Trejo on the 40-man roster. Additionally, right-hander Jaden Hill was optioned to the minors while righty Bradley Blalock was recalled to the big league roster.

Trejo, 29 next month, returns to the organization for whom he was a 16th-round pick in 2017 draft. The infielder debuted with the club in 2021 and has appeared in 173 major league games since then, all of which came as a member of the Rockies. He’s hit just .228/.276/.334 in that time, though he’s been a serviceable depth option for the club’s bench over the years thanks to strong defense all around the infield. Still, Trejo’s lack of offense led the Rockies to designate him for assignment in June of last year. He promptly cleared waivers and elected free agency. Since then, he’s played for the Dodgers and Rangers in the minor leagues but will now make his return to both the Rockies and the majors in general as an infield bench option now that Kyle Farmer has been pushed into an everyday role by an injury to Ezequiel Tovar.

Making room for Trejo on the 40-man roster is Gilbreath, a seventh-rounder selected by Colorado as part of the same draft class as Trejo. The southpaw also made his big league debut during the 2021 season, and he enjoyed a solid rookie campaign out of the bullpen with a 3.38 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of work. That’s a particularly impressive figure for the player who calls Coors Field home, though he walked a worrisome 12.4% of his opponents while striking out 23.8%, leaving him with a less impressive 4.32 FIP. Even so, he was able to build on his success in 2022 and deliver another solid year of work when he pitched to a 4.19 ERA (111 ERA+) with a much stronger 3.53 FIP in 43 frames, though his strikeouts and walks were largely unchanged from the year prior.

Despite the shaky command, Gilbreath looked like a bullpen piece with real potential for the Rockies headed into the 2023 season. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery and wound up not only missing the whole year, but nearly the entire 2024 season due to his rehab. Gilbreath returned to the majors in August of last year but was torched to the tune of a 54.00 ERA across three appearances that totaled just one inning of work. He remained with the Rockies after signing a pre-tender deal back in November, but he’ll depart the roster without making a big league appearance this year. In seven appearances at Triple-A this year, Gilbreath has posted a solid 2.70 ERA but has struck out just 14.7% of his opponents while walking 11.8%.

Making room for Trejo on the active roster is Fulford, who made his big league debut earlier this month. He went 1-for-8 with a home run and five strikeouts in his four-game cup of coffee in the majors and is now ticketed for Triple-A, where he’ll serve as optionable catching depth for the time being. Joining him in the minors is Hill, who has looked solid with a 3.38 ERA in three appearances for the Rockies this year, while Blalock rejoins the pen after surrendering two runs in three innings of work earlier this year.

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Colorado Rockies Transactions Alan Trejo Bradley Blalock Braxton Fulford Jaden Hill Lucas Gilbreath

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Mets Select Jose Urena

By Nick Deeds | April 27, 2025 at 9:42am CDT

The Mets announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Jose Urena. Urena will replace southpaw A.J. Minter on the roster as the southpaw heads to the 15-day injured list due to a left lat strain. Minter’s placement on the shelf is hardly a surprise, as he exited yesterday’s game with what was termed triceps soreness at the time. The Mets have a 40-man roster spot open, so no corresponding move was necessary.

Urena, 33, has pitched in the majors for parts of ten seasons but has struggled to post average results throughout most of his career. The righty debuted with the Marlins back in 2015 and spent the first two years of his career struggling badly in the majors in a swing role, though he converted to the rotation full-time in 2017 and had a solid two-season run as an effective back-end starter. From 2017 to 2018, Urena pitched to a league average 3.90 ERA despite a microscopic 16.9% strikeout rate, though his well-below average 4.68 FIP suggested regression was likely not far away. That came to pass during his final two seasons with the Marlins, where he posted a 5.25 ERA and 5.02 FIP in 108 frames before being designated for assignment shortly after the 2020 season concluded.

In the years following his departure from Miami, Urena was typically used as a back-end starter or swingman while bouncing around various clubs outside of the playoff picture. From 2021 to 2023, the right-hander pitched for the Tigers, Rockies, Brewers, and White Sox with a combined 5.61 ERA and 5.29 FIP in 242 1/3 innings of work. He struck out just 14.6% of his opponents while walking 9.8% during that time, leaving him with weak ratios that even a 50.2% groundball rate couldn’t make up for.

Lackluster as his performance in the majors had been over the years, however, Urena managed to turn things around in Texas last year. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers during the 2023-24 offseason and managed to crack the club’s Opening Day roster as a long reliever. He joined the rotation for a brief stretch in May and June but mostly pitched out of the bullpen, and did multi-inning relief work with intriguing effectiveness. While he still punched out just 15.1% of his opponents, his 8.4% walk rate was a bit more palatable and he maintained his strong grounder rate while adding a tick of velocity to his fastball and managing to give up fewer homers. In all, he posted a 3.80 ERA with a 4.62 FIP in 109 innings, though his 2.92 ERA in 64 2/3 frames of relief work was more impressive than his 5.08 ERA in nine starts.

Despite the improvements in his performance, Urena’s shaky work in the rotation and lack of strikeouts limited him to minor league deals once again this winter, and he eventually landed with the Mets. The righty had the ability to opt-out of his deal with the club before Opening Day but instead opted to stick with the club and pitch at Triple-A until an opportunity arose in Queens. That patience has now paid off, and he’ll join the big league roster as a multi-inning relief option or potential sixth starter should one be necessary at some point.

As for Minter, the extent of his injury won’t be known until results of the imaging he’s expected to undergo today are announced. Regardless, the Mets are clearly confident he’ll be down for long enough to justify holding him out for at least the next 15 days. That leaves Danny Young as the only left-handed option in the Mets’ bullpen for the time being, though Genesis Cabrera and Anthony Gose are both available as non-roster depth options in the minor leagues.

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New York Mets Transactions A.J. Minter Jose Urena

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Dodgers Notes: Gonsolin, Snell, Ohtani

By Nick Deeds | April 27, 2025 at 9:00am CDT

The Dodgers are set to get some rotation reinforcements this week, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Associated Press) yesterday that right-hander Tony Gonsolin is expected to return from the injured list to start Wednesday’s game against the Marlins.

It will mark Gonsolin’s first appearance on a big league mound in nearly two full years. The right-hander last pitched on August 18, 2023 (against the Marlins, coincidentally) but surrendered ten runs on five homers in 3 1/3 innings of work after having pitched through arm troubles for weeks. That final difficult start capped off a six-start stretch where Gonsolin surrendered an 8.01 ERA in 30 1/3 innings of work, so it’s not hard to see the impact Gonsolin’s woes had on his effectiveness. The right-hander was placed on the IL after that mid-August start and underwent Tommy John surgery on September 1.

He missed the entire 2024 season as a result of his rehab despite flirting with the possibility of a late-season return, and entered Spring Training fully healthy and ready to battle for a rotation job this spring. Unfortunately, the injury bug once again bit him when he was hit with a bout of back tightness late in the spring. That led to another season started on the injured list, but now he looks poised to finally get back on the major league mound as a starting pitcher. That’s the role he held for the entirety of his best season in the majors, when he made the 2022 NL All-Star team on the back of a 2.14 ERA in 130 1/3 innings of work across 24 starts.

Whether he’ll keep that role long-term or move to the bullpen at some point this year remains to be seen. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a strong performance keep Gonsolin in the mix for starts all year long, but he does have some big league experience as a reliever and the Dodgers’ on-paper rotation is extremely crowded when anything close to fully healthy. When the club’s rotation mix is firing on all cylinders, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May, and Roki Sasaki all seem likely to be ahead of Gonsolin on the organizational depth chart. With that being said, the Dodgers’ rotation mix is far from healthy at the moment, so Gonsolin should get a reasonably long runway as he looks to earn a more permanent spot on the starting staff.

Speaking of those rotation injuries, Roberts provided reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) with an update regarding Snell on Friday. Per Roberts, an MRI Snell underwent earlier in the week revealed “no new findings” beyond his previously-known shoulder inflammation. The manager added that he believes the club has “dodged a bullet” by shutting Snell down before the injury became more serious. The southpaw was set to receive an injection to help battle the inflammation but has yet to begin a throwing program. That leaves a timetable for his return to action somewhat murky, though Roberts suggested that the lack of structural damage leaves the door open for a somewhat quicker return to action.

Barring further setbacks, it seems as though Snell should at least be back on a big league mound before Ohtani. The two-way superstar threw his first bullpen session since returning from paternity leave yesterday, as relayed by MLB.com’s Sonja Chen. After not throwing last Saturday during his absence, Ohtani played catch rather than throw off the mound on Wednesday and limited his bullpen session yesterday to just 31 pitches, but he’s expected to resume his regular schedule of light mound work on Wednesdays and a full bullpen session on Saturdays this coming week.

While it’s good that Ohtani has resumed throwing, it appears that there’s been little progress in terms of his actual readiness of MLB games. He’s still limited to just fastballs and splitters for the time being, and won’t advance to facing live hitters until he’s utilizing his entire pitch mix. Club GM Brandon Gomes discussed Ohtani’s slow-going rehab with reporters (including Chen) yesterday, calling it “a week-by-week process.”

“We have a general sense, we’ve got to make sure that he’s feeling good and we’re being smart so we can’t lose the offensive side of it as well,” Gomes said, as relayed by Chen. “In a lot of these rehabs, you kind of set a date and work backward. I think on this one, you’re moving forward, because it’s a one-of-one type thing.”

While the Dodgers floated the month of May as a potential timeline for Ohtani’s return during the winter, Ohtani’s pitching build up was paused prior to L.A.’s series against the Cubs in Tokyo. That pushed back his timeline, and while no dates have been floated for his return since then it seems likely that he’ll resume pitching in the majors again at some point in the second half.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Notes Blake Snell Shohei Ohtani Tony Gonsolin

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Poll: Should Nick Pivetta’s Hot Start Be Believed?

By Nick Deeds | April 25, 2025 at 2:55pm CDT

Right-hander Nick Pivetta languished for quite some time on the free agent market after he turned down a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox in search of a multi-year deal. The 32-year-old wound up being one of the final pitchers to come off the board this winter. He ultimately signed with the Padres on a four-year, $55MM pact that comes with some protection for the club against Pivetta undergoing significant elbow surgery. That relatively low-cost deal seemingly wouldn’t have been difficult for another club to beat this offseason, and so far Pivetta has made the rotation-needy clubs who passed on him look foolish.

In his first five starts this year, Pivetta has pitched to a 1.20 ERA across 30 frames. He’s struck out 27.0% of his opponents, walked just 6.3%, and made it through seven full innings in the majority of his appearances. For years, Pivetta has been viewed around baseball as a potential breakout arm with electric stuff despite never quite putting it together across a full season in the majors, with a career 4.66 ERA and 4.30 FIP. That led the Phillies to deal him to the Red Sox back in 2020, and that led Boston brass to shuffle Pivetta between the bullpen and rotation during the 2023 season. Even his best seasons with the Red Sox from 2021 to 2024 saw him pitch to a middling 4.33 ERA and 4.20 FIP. Could the veteran’s long-anticipated breakout have finally arrived in his first year with San Diego?

The possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand. After all, Pivetta’s success has come in spite of two his his five starts coming against the Cubs, who sport the NL’s best offense and the most runs scored in all of baseball to this point in the calendar. His first start against Chicago was a lackluster one, with three runs allowed in three innings of work, but his second time facing the club saw him strike six batters out while walking just one with one run allowed in six innings of work. Combine that with the seven scoreless innings he twirled against the Tigers and their own top-10 offense in the sport so far, and it’s hard to say Pivetta has coasted through an easy schedule so far this year.

With that being said, there hasn’t been much in the way of drastic changes. Pivetta’s 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate this year are both better than his career norms, but weaker than last year’s figures of 28.9% and 6.3% respectively. His fastball velocity also remains virtually unchanged from last year, when he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP across 145 2/3 innings of work. That lack of tangible change is a potential red flag that suggests this dominance won’t continue, as are Pivetta’s .205 BABIP allowed, 88% strand rate, and 2.9% home run-to-fly ball ratio.

All of those figures as well out of line with not only Pivetta’s career norms but what can be expected for MLB hurlers in general. Pivetta’s HR/FB is particularly noteworthy, however, as home runs have been the righty’s primary bugaboo throughout his career. Pivetta has allowed the fifth highest number of home runs since he arrived in the majors back in 2017 among all pitchers. Among those with at least 800 innings of work since then, Pivetta’s home run rate is also the fifth-highest, while his home run-to-fly ball ratio is ninth-highest. The long ball has always been what’s held Pivetta back throughout his career, but he’s allowed just one home run in his first five starts.

While this year’s level of home run suppression is all but impossible to imagine being sustainable, the underlying metrics do suggest that Pivetta has done better than usual in terms of keeping the barrel off the ball. His 8.1% barrel rate so far this year would be the lowest he’s posted in any season since 2018 if maintained over a full season, and he’s currently sporting a 37.8% hard-hit rate that would be his lowest since 2019. Combine that with the lowest average exit velocity and highest infield fly ball rate of his career, and it’s not hard to see why Pivetta’s allowing less home runs than ever. Regression back to the mean must be expected, but there’s at least some signs that the veteran could allow fewer homers this year than he has in any of his previous full seasons of work.

On yet another hand, there are generally more home runs in the warmer months. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Pivetta’s career splits form a sort of bell curve, with his ERA lower in the spring and fall but higher in the summer. He has a career 4.01 ERA in March/April, then 4.34 in May, 4.66 in June, 5.11 in July, 6.02 in August, then 3.84 in September/October. As the weather heats up, all pitchers have a harder time keeping the ball in the park, which could be especially noteworthy for Pivetta.

Do MLBTR readers believe in his strong start or is the right-hander going to come back down to Earth eventually? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Nick Pivetta finish the year?
Pivetta will continue to dominate and enjoy the best season of his career in 2025. 53.18% (1,287 votes)
Pivetta will regress to the mean and post a season similar to those he posted from 2021 to 2024. 46.82% (1,133 votes)
Total Votes: 2,420
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls San Diego Padres Nick Pivetta

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The Opener: Ragans, Mets, Pitchers’ Duel

By Nick Deeds | April 25, 2025 at 8:17am CDT

As the 2025 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Ragans nursing groin issue:

The Royals swept their doubleheader against the Rockies yesterday, but the pair of wins came at a cost when southpaw Cole Ragans was pulled from his start after just three innings due to left groin tightness. The lefty is set to undergo additional testing today to determine the severity of the issue, at which point we’ll likely know more about if he’s going to miss significant time or be back on the mound in relatively short order. Ragans has pitched to a lackluster 4.40 ERA across his six starts this season, but the underlying metrics look phenomenal nonetheless as he’s struck out 35.9% of his opponents while walking just 7.0%, leaving him with a 2.69 FIP. That wouldn’t be easy production to replace at the front of the rotation, though Luinder Avila and Noah Cameron are in Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster as potential depth options.

2. Will the Mets’ streak continue?

The Mets have won seven games in a row, giving them an 18-7 record overall that’s good for the best in baseball. They hold a relatively commanding five-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East currently that’s all the more impressive given the early point in the calendar, and at 6:45pm local time this evening they’ll go for eight straight wins when they take on the Nationals. Right-hander Kodai Senga will be on the mound and looking to build upon a brilliant first four starts this year during which he’s posted a 0.79 ERA and a 2.89 FIP while striking out 23% of his opponents. Opposite Senga on the mound will be Nationals righty Jake Irvin, who has offered D.C. solid mid-to-back of the rotation results so far with a slightly above-average 3.68 ERA across five starts but a somewhat lackluster 4.66 FIP in 29 1/3 innings of work.

3. Pitchers’ duel in Los Angeles:

A match-up between two of the league’s top starters is always intriguing, but tonight’s game between the Pirates and Dodgers in L.A. figures to stand out even among other potential pitchers’ duels. At 7:10pm local time, Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take the mound opposite Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes. The two most talented rookie pitchers in all of baseball last year are now emerging among the early potential front-runners for this year’s NL Cy Young award. Yamamoto has put the shoulder injury that cost him much of his debut season entirely behind him as he’s posted a microscopic 0.93 ERA in five starts, pairing it with a 2.02 FIP and 35.2% strikeout rate. Skenes, meanwhile, is building on last year’s dominant NL Rookie of the Year campaign with a 2.87 ERA, a 2.00 FIP, and 25.4% strikeout rate in his own five starts to this point in the season.

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The Opener

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Poll: Can Willson Contreras Get Back On Track?

By Nick Deeds | April 24, 2025 at 2:55pm CDT

When the Cardinals announced over the offseason that they were moving Willson Contreras to first base, it came as something of a surprise given that they we just two years into a five-year deal they gave him to fill the shoes Yadier Molina had stood in for the past 19 years. Signing a bat-first catcher to replace one of the best defenders in baseball history behind the dish was a bold move, and while Contreras hit an excellent .263/.367/.468 (129 wRC+) in his first two seasons as a Cardinal, his tenure behind the plate did not come without controversy. St. Louis moved him off catcher briefly during his first season with the club after complaints about his glove. Last year, he missed time with a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a swing after the organization suggested he move closer to the plate to improve his defense.

If those controversies set the table for the decision to move Contreras away from catching, the departure of incumbent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the Bronx this winter and the club’s two up-and-coming catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages making solid cases for more playing time made the possibility that much more realistic. After all, a position change for Contreras would allow the Cardinals to make some progress on their desired youth movement without needing to pull off a trade, and there was at least a possibility that Contreras’s strong bat from his first two seasons with the club could blossom even further if he didn’t need to split his focus between hitting and catching.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things have gone so far. In 24 games this season, Contreras has slashed just .200/.269/.305 this year. That leaves him with a 62 wRC+ that’s not only well below average but also extremely uncharacteristic of him. While questions about Contreras’s defensive abilities have dogged him since the early days of his MLB career with the Cubs, his bat has never been in doubt as he’s posted above-average numbers at the plate by wRC+ in every single year of his career until now. A .258/.353/.461 (121 wRC+) hitter for his career, Contreras had elevated his game to another level since the start of the 2022 season with a .256/.367/.467 (133 wRC+) line across the past three seasons.

Has all of that changed in his age-33 season? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a catcher in his early-to-mid 30s suffered a sudden and drastic decline, although moving to first base should at least theoretically help preserve Contreras’s health. The frustrating reality of the veteran’s situation is that, while below-average offense can be acceptable behind the plate, first base is a bat-first position where he’ll need offensive results in order to stick as a regular. That’s even more true with youngsters like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker ready to step in and take their own shots at the first base job if given the opportunity.

As lackluster as Contreras’s work at the dish has been so far this year, it’s not as if all hope is lost. The veteran’s .270 BABIP this year matches his career low, and if it bounces back to something closer to his .309 career level, that would go a long way to lifting his production. Another reason for optimism is that he’s still putting the barrel on the ball fairly often. While his 9.1% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate this year are the lowest figures he’s posted in either category since 2018, they both remain solid. When combined with his top-of-the-line bat speed, it’s easy to imagine Contreras being able to generate more power than he’s shown so far.

On the other hand, Contreras is already more than 100 plate appearances into his first season as a first baseman, and he’s currently matching his career-high in strikeout rate (28.6%) and pairing that with a career-low walk rate of 6.7%. Contreras has always been a bit of a streaky hitter, as exemplified by his 2018 season where he carried a 123 wRC+ into the All-Star break before hitting a paltry .193/.282/.280 across his final 50 games, so it stands to reason that he may well be just one hot streak away from getting back to being the bat he’s shown himself to be throughout his career. Even with that in mind, the signs of declining plate discipline and reduced power are concerning. That’s especially true when combined with his age and the years of wear and tear he accumulated behind the plate.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of the 2025 season will go for Contreras? Will he be able to bounce back and post numbers similar to what he’s offered in each of the last three seasons? Or will his first year as a first baseman be the worst offensive season of his career? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Willson Contreras perform for the rest of the year?
Contreras will rebound enough to be a roughly average hitter, but not post the impactful numbers he's offered in recent years. 41.34% (1,156 votes)
Contreras will bounce back and post a strong final line close to that of his previous seasons with the Cardinals. 34.37% (961 votes)
Contreras's down season will continue and he'll post the first below-average season of his career. 24.28% (679 votes)
Total Votes: 2,796
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls St. Louis Cardinals Willson Contreras

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The Opener: Doubleheader, McKenzie, Beltway Series

By Nick Deeds | April 24, 2025 at 8:52am CDT

As the 2025 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Doubleheader in Kansas City:

Yesterday’s game between the Rockies and Royals was postponed due to weather and will be made up today in a doubleheader. The makeup game will take place immediately after the previously scheduled game, which is set to begin at 1:10pm local time. According to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, fans who have tickets to today’s game are welcome to attend both games while fans who had tickets to yesterday’s game will receive a credit for the value of their tickets that can be applied to tickets and suite rentals, though they’ll need to purchase tickets for today’s game in order to attend the doubleheader.

Today’s first matchup is between Rockies righty German Marquez and Royals ace Cole Ragans. Marquez had his last fully healthy season in 2022 and so far this year the rust has showed; he’s been torched for an 8.27 ERA in four starts. He’ll look to get things back on track against Ragans, who finished third in AL Cy Young award voting last year and has started his 2025 season with a 3.58 ERA and a phenomenal 36.8% strikeout rate. Game 2 features Colorado rookie Chase Dollander making his fourth career MLB start against veteran Michael Lorenzen, who has pitched to a 4.57 ERA in 21 2/3 innings of work this season.

2. Will McKenzie be traded?

The Guardians made the tough decision to designate righty Triston McKenzie for assignment earlier this week. The news was simultaneously surprising and in some ways a long time coming, as McKenzie last pitched a full season in back in 2022 and has largely been ineffective since then. Despite his 5.46 ERA in 97 1/3 innings over the past three years, however, McKenzie is still just 27 years old and looked like a potential front-end starter back in 2022. He avoided surgery following a 2023 UCL injury but has never recaptured his pre-injury form.

McKenzie is nearing the point where he’ll need to be placed on waivers to be claimed by any of the league’s other 29 clubs, so if the Guardians hope to work out a trade involving their talented but struggling righty, they’d need to do so soon. Any acquiring club would need to be willing to commit an active roster spot to McKenzie, who is out of minor league options. He’s being paid $1.95MM this year and has two additional seasons of club control.

3. Beltway Series sweep on the line:

The Orioles have been among baseball’s most disappointing teams this year, with a 9-14 record that puts them dead last in the AL East. That’s been even more apparent during this week’s Beltway Series against the Nationals, where they’ve dropped the first two games in the three-game set. Washington is hardly a powerhouse, sitting two games below .500 and 6.5 games back of the Mets in the NL East, but they’ll nonetheless enter tonight’s game (scheduled for 6:45pm local time) with a chance at a sweep. Talented southpaw MacKenzie Gore will be on the mound for D.C. after looking excellent in his first five starts of the year. He’ll be facing fellow southpaw Cade Povich, a former top prospect who has struggled to a 6.38 ERA in is first four starts of the 2025 campaign.

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The Opener

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Poll: Should Spencer Torkelson’s Breakout Be Believed?

By Nick Deeds | April 23, 2025 at 2:05pm CDT

Not long ago, Spencer Torkelson seemed to be out of time. The Tigers first baseman was selected first overall in the 2020 draft to plenty of fanfare, and he instantly became a consensus top-5 talent in the minor leagues. A disappointing rookie season in 2022 tempered those massive expectations, but a strong second half in 2023 caused many around the league to think the following year would be Torkelson’s season to shine. That didn’t happen either, as the slugger was once again a below-average hitter overall and wound up optioned to the minors for much of the year. When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to push Colt Keith over to first base, it seemed like a bad omen for 25-year-old’s future in Detroit.

Spring Training changed all of that, as the club’s entire outfield mix save Riley Greene wound up on the injured list. That opened up enough roster spots for Torkelson to have a real shot at the Opening Day roster, and he made the most of the opportunity by hitting .340/.389/.680 in 55 plate appearances during camp. Spring stats only count for so much due to the less competitive environment, however, and Torkelson would need to show out in actual major league games if he was going to turn his career around. So far, he’s done just that. Torkelson has not only been the Tigers’ best hitter this year, but he’s been one of the top hitters in the majors.

Across 24 games this year, the slugger has slashed an excellent .273/.377/.591 with a wRC+ of 176. It’s enough to have made him the 12th-best qualified hitter in the major leagues to this point in the year. It’s early enough in the season that the leaderboard still looks fairly unusual; just ahead of Torkelson with a 177 wRC+ is veteran outfielder George Springer, who it goes without saying is unlikely to maintain a .444 BABIP all season long. While there’s plenty of reasons to be skeptical of small-sample performances, many of them don’t apply to the 106 plate appearances Torkelson has taken to this point in the year.

Torkelson’s BABIP is .309, which is the highest of his career but well within the range of expected outcomes for a hitter and not substantially higher than the .285 BABIP he posted last season. The fact that Torkelson is hitting the ball on a line (17.7% line drive rate) more often than last year (15.1%) surely helps his outcomes on balls in play, as well. His 26.4% strikeout rate is also a tick lower than last year’s 27.6%, but none of these are the most encouraging signs regarding Torkelson’s start to the 2025 campaign. The most exciting news here is that he’s not only resumed crushing the ball at the level he was during the 2023 season, but that he’s paired it with newfound patience at the plate.

The 25-year-old is swinging less than ever, at just 44.3% of his pitches. Torkelson’s swing rates both inside and outside of the strike zone are lower than ever, and that newfound patience has allowed him to not only draw walks at a phenomenal 13.2% clip but also make more contact when he does swing. His 10.2% swinging strike rate this year is the lowest of his career, and he’s making contact on 52.2% of pitches he swings at outside of the zone after putting the bat on just 40.6% of those same pitches last year.

That more judicious approach at the plate has allowed Torkelson to rediscover his titanic power after posting a paltry .155 ISO last year. He has seven homers and seven doubles already this year, and that power is backed up by his underlying numbers: he’s managed a phenomenal 17.7% barrel rate that would be by far the highest of his career if maintained over the full season and is nearly triple last year’s 6.1% clip, and 50.0% of his balls have been considered hard hit, good for a 95mph exit velocity or higher.

All of this is extremely impressive, and if Torkelson can keep anything close to this going for the full year, he’ll have finally tapped into the potential scouts saw in him half a decade ago as an amateur. Over his final 300 plate appearances in 2023, Torkelson hit .238/.320/.506 with a wRC+ of 125. His 26.7% strikeout rate was more or less identical over that stretch to this year’s figure. His 16.6% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate weren’t far off, either. Those numbers are all close enough to serve as a reminder that Torkelson’s first 100 plate appearances this year don’t guarantee his future production will be close to as impactful, although his 2025 numbers do have a few key advantages over his second-half numbers in 2023.

For one thing, Torkelson’s line drive rate is three points higher while his soft contact rate is nine points lower this season. Those figures could help to explain the huge difference in BABIP, which sat at just .262 during his final 300 trips to the plate in 2023. His discipline is also noticeably improved, as he walked 10.0% of the time during that stretch, nearly four points lower than this year. If Torkelson’s improved plate discipline holds up and he continues to make soft contact this sparingly, it’s not hard to imagine him being able to keep up this level of production over the long haul.

What do MLBTR readers think of Torkelson’s hot start? Is this finally the year he puts it all together and looks like the dominant offensive force he was always expected to be, or will this prove to be another flash in the pan like his late 2023 production? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Spencer Torkelson finish the year?
While he won't hit this well all year, the improvements are legitimate enough to make him a well-above average hitter going forward. 66.14% (2,324 votes)
He'll sustain this breakout fully and emerge as one of the league's top hitters. 20.43% (718 votes)
His hot start should not be believed, and he'll regress to his career norms. 13.43% (472 votes)
Total Votes: 3,514
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Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Spencer Torkelson

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