The Rays Already Look Primed For A Rebound In 2025
After years of regularly exceeding expectations brought about by their low payrolls and reliance on unproven talent and/or reclamation projects, the 2024 Rays have finally had a rough season. At 74-78, they've been out of playoff contention for quite some time and have uncharacteristically been outscored by 60 runs. This will be their first playoff miss since 2018, although even that season saw them win 90 games. This is shaping up to be Tampa Bay's first sub-.500 season since 2017 -- a remarkable feat when considering the front office's perennially limited budget and the subsequent roster churn that brings about.
The Rays operated as sellers at the deadline, trading their most established power bat (Randy Arozarena), two starting pitchers (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), their All-Star third baseman (Isaac Paredes), one of their best relievers (Jason Adam) and a series of useful role players (Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Tyler Zuber).
Oftentimes, deadline sales of that magnitude serve as a portent for an offseason dedicated to rebuilding, as recently illustrated by the 2023 White Sox and the 2021-22 Nationals. That type of rebuild, however, seems largely unnecessary in Tampa Bay. Even with a lineup consisting of unproven journeymen and a host of light-hitting, glove-first regulars (e.g. Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Caballero), the Rays already look like a team that could jump back into contention as early as next season.
Let's take a look at the reasons for that.
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Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Catchers
With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market. We’ll start things off with catchers. Ages listed are for the 2025 season, and stats are up to date through Sept. 18.
Potential Regulars/Platoon Options
Elias Diaz (34)
Diaz was the MVP of the 2023 All-Star Game, but he’s struggled to the point where that feels like a distant memory. The Rockies released him in August, a move that surprised some but came on the heels of a bleak slump following a calf injury. He later latched on with the Padres. Diaz made enough contact early in the season that he’s still sporting a .262 batting average, but it’s an empty .262 as it’s coupled with a .310 OBP and .369 slugging percentage. Since returning from the injured list in June, he’s hitting .198/.238/.259.
While he’s never been considered a strong defender, Diaz has posted above-average marks in 2024’s relatively small sample. If a club thinks he can sustain those over a full year and bounce back to the form he had prior to his calf strain, he could land another starting job. It’s also possible that his shaky defensive track record and grim finish to the season relegate him to part-time offers or even a minor league deal, however. He’s the most volatile name in this category with regard to his potential contract status.
Kyle Higashioka (35)
Higashioka has saved his best output of his career for his age-34 campaign. In his first season with the Padres, he’s swatted a career-high 16 homers in just 241 plate appearances. He’s a perennially plus defender behind the dish who rarely gets on base, and that hasn’t changed, but this year’s power output could pique the interest of clubs on a one- or two-year deal, despite his age.
Higashioka strikes out too much and doesn’t walk frequently enough, and that’s true versus both righties and lefties. His .223/.271/.487 batting line is one of the stranger slashes you’ll see across the league this season, but between his power and plus glovework he’s been worth 1.3 bWAR and 1.6 fWAR. It’s not out of the question to think a catching-needy club could see a potential two-win catcher here and give him the biggest role of his career. To this point, Higashioka has never logged even 300 plate appearances in a big league season.
Danny Jansen (30)
Jansen looked like the clear top option in this class coming into the season, but he’s tanked his stock with a .207/.309/.356 batting line. That 91 wRC+ is still about average for a catcher, but Jansen’s typically strong framing grades have taken a dive this season, as has his power. He’s hit just nine homers this year after popping 17 in 301 plate appearances a year ago and 15 in 248 plate appearances in 2022. This year’s .146 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-low mark.
Jansen is relatively young and from 2021-23 slashed a combined .237/.317/.487 with 43 taters in only 754 plate appearances — all while playing well-regarded defense. He could still land a multi-year deal based on that track record, but it’s not going to be nearly as strong of one as he’d have managed if he’d maintained his output over the three prior seasons. Jansen has also missed substantial time due to various injuries over the years — broken wrist, two separate broken fingers, oblique strain, groin strain, hamstring strain — and the “injury-prone” label won’t do him any favors.
Carson Kelly (30)
Kelly may have boosted his stock as much as Jansen harmed his own. The former top prospect has long been a terrific defender but looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022-23. In 2024, he’s lopped nearly nine percentage points off his strikeout rate, maintained a nearly average walk rate and improved not only the frequency of his contact but the quality of his batted balls as well.
The resulting .243/.320/.373 batting line is right on par with that of a league-average hitter and about 10% better than the average catcher. He’s also still a premium defensive backstop, evidenced by better-than-average framing and blocking marks as well as a 26% caught-stealing rate (30% with the Tigers, where he spent the bulk of the season). Kelly’s rebound has flown under the radar, but a league-average bat with a plus glove behind the plate heading into his age-30 season is a recipe for a multi-year deal and a potential regular role in 2025.
Gary Sanchez (32)
Sanchez’s defense has improved over the years. He’s not a liability behind the plate despite still being unable to completely shake off that label from earlier in his career. As that uptick in defensive value has transpired, however, his contributions with the bat have waned. He’s hitting .224/.313/.399 this season — roughly league-average offense — and has smacked 10 homers in 256 plate appearances. Sanchez has spent more time at DH than at catcher over the past two seasons but has fared better offensively when he’s in the game behind the plate.
Jacob Stallings (35)
Stallings’ elite defensive ratings from earlier in his career have declined to the point where he’s drawn below-average marks in three straight seasons. A downturn in his framing metrics are the primary cause for that deterioration, though he also posted well below-average caught-stealing marks in 2022-23. He’s rebounded with his throwing this season (23% caught-stealing). More than that, Stallings is enjoying far and away his best offensive season in the majors. His .260/.353/.450 batting line is “only” about 12% better than average by measure of wRC+, thanks to some heavy weighting for Coors Field, but Stallings has actually produced better numbers away from Coors than at home. A career year at age 34 is going to draw some skepticism, but he should draw a big league deal and receive decent playing time — perhaps even back with the Rockies, as there’s mutual interest in a reunion.
Backups/Depth Candidates
Tucker Barnhart (34)
Barnhart won a pair of Gold Gloves earlier in his career but has seen his glovework decline and his playing time dwindle as his bat has eroded. He hit .173/.287/.210 in 96 plate appearances with the D-backs this season and is likely looking at another minor league deal this winter.
Yan Gomes (37)
Gomes hit .154/.179/.242 in 96 plate appearances with the Cubs before being released in favor of fellow depth option Tomas Nido. He’s only a year removed from a solid season in Chicago, but coming off a season like that and heading into his age-37 campaign, he’ll very likely need to take a minor league deal if he wants to continue playing.
Yasmani Grandal (36)
A plus framer but one of the worst-throwing catchers in the sport at this point, Grandal has been a backup in Pittsburgh and posted a 9% caught-stealing rate this year. He’s hitting .218/.293/.371 with seven dingers in 228 plate appearances. He could land another backup gig, but he’s not a lock to land a big league deal.
Austin Hedges (32)
Hedges is as good as it gets defensively but nearly as bad as it gets offensively. He’s sporting a 23 wRC+ for the second straight season, indicating he’s been 77% worse than average at the plate. Since 2023, he owns a combined .173/.224/.227 line in 353 plate appearances. The Guardians love his glove so much they gave him $4MM and have kept him on the roster all season. He’ll likely command another low-cost one-year deal to serve as a backup.
Martin Maldonado (38)
Maldonado produced only a .119/.174/.230 slash in 147 plate appearances with the White Sox this season. He was better at the plate with the Astros from 2021-23 but still one of the sport’s least-productive hitters in that three-year stretch. Teams love Maldonado’s game-calling and work with their pitchers, but his lack of offense has reached dire levels.
James McCann (35)
McCann’s carrying trait used to be pummeling left-handed pitching, but he’s faded in that regard in recent years. He’s hitting .220/.266/.340 in 218 plate appearances with the Orioles. A minor league deal feels likely for the former White Sox and Mets backstop.
Omar Narvaez (33)
The Mets released Narvaez after he hit .154/.191/.185 in 69 plate appearances. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros and hit .203/.327/.316 for their Triple-A club. Narvaez hasn’t produced at the plate since 2021 and will be limited to minor league offers.
Tomas Nido (31)
Nido just signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. He’s been released by both the Mets and Cubs this season. Like many others on this list, he’s a plus defender with a negligible offensive ceiling. In his past 675 plate appearances in the majors, Nido is a .215/.249/.305 hitter — numbers that mirror his .210/.245/.309 line almost exactly.
Club Options
Austin Barnes (35) – $3.5MM club option
The Dodgers have long valued Barnes’ framing skills, but his throwing has cratered over the past two seasons, as he’s caught just 10.5% of runners attempting to steal against him. Barnes is hitting .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances. It’s a borderline call for the Dodgers to keep him, particularly with Will Smith now signed for a decade and a trio of younger catching options behind him (Hunter Feduccia, Dalton Rushing, Diego Cartaya). If he’s bought out, he’ll get some interest as a framing-driven backup.
Travis d’Arnaud (36) – $8MM club option (no buyout)
The Braves love d’Arnaud, who’s posted a solid .242/.306/.446 batting line and 14 homers in 317 plate appearances this season. Even if Atlanta doesn’t want to retain d’Arnaud at $8MM, they could turn down the option, pay no buyout, and try to bring him back at a lower rate.
Luke Maile (34) – $3.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
Maile is typically regarded as a solid defender but has seen his glovework dip this year while posting one of the worst offensive performances of his career: .157/.255/.228 in 146 plate appearances. He’ll be a depth option for catcher-needy clubs on a minor league deal this winter.
Max Stassi (34) – $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Stassi hasn’t played this season due to hip surgery. His option will be bought out. He last appeared in a big league game in 2022. He’s regarded as a premium framer who has at times shown offensive upside, but he’ll be looking at a minor league deal this offseason.
Bo Bichette Placed On Injured List Due To Fractured Finger
The Blue Jays announced Thursday that shortstop Bo Bichette suffered a fractured middle finger and has been placed on the 10-day injured list, ending his 2024 season. Bichette was scratched from yesterday’s lineup after suffering a hand injury during pregame fielding drills. Outfielder Jonatan Clase has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to take Bichette’s spot on the active roster.
The broken finger caps off a nightmare season for Bichette — one that’s seen the two-time All-Star weather a pair of IL stints due to calf strains that have severely hobbled him. Bichette only just returned from the injured list Tuesday and played in one game after a nearly two-month absence due to that ailing calf. He’ll close out the year with a wildly uncharacteristic .225/.277/.322 batting line and four homers — a far cry from the .299/.340/.487 batting line he carried into the 2024 campaign.
Bichette was the subject of trade rumblings early this summer, but Toronto GM Ross Atkins quickly shut down any real notion of selling low on his star shortstop when he said in mid-June that trading Bichette (or teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) “[didn’t] make any sense” for the Jays. While the Blue Jays ultimately operated as deadline sellers, they mostly moved players who’d have been up for free agency at the end of the current season.
All indications have been that Atkins & Co. want to retool the roster and take aim at a return to contending next season. Bichette, who recently voiced a strong desire to stay with the Jays, will presumably be a part of those efforts — although other teams around the league will likely at least inquire about the possibility of prying him loose from the only organization he’s known to this point in his career.
The 2025 season will be Bichette’s final year before reaching free agency for the first time. The Jays signed him to a three-year, $33.6MM deal buying out all three of his arbitration seasons back in February of 2023. That contract, which did not delay his path to the open market, calls for Bichette to earn $16.5MM next season in what will be his age-27 campaign.
Twins Outright Randy Dobnak
Twins right-hander Randy Dobnak passed through waivers unclaimed and has been assigned outright to Triple-A St. Paul, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment earlier this week when Minnesota claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Orioles.
Dobnak has been outrighted in the past and thus has the right to reject the assignment, but he’s a lock to accept. Because he has fewer than five years of service time, he’d need to forfeit the remainder of this season’s $2.25MM salary and the $4MM he’s still owed beyond the current campaign ($3MM salary in ’25, $1MM buyout on a ’26 option) in order to elect free agency. There’s obviously no chance he’d do so, meaning he’ll head back to the Saints and remain with the Twins organization as a depth arm both for the remainder of this season and at least the 2025 season as well.
The 29-year-old Dobnak was a remarkable story back in 2019, when in just over a year’s time he rose from indie-ball pitcher and Uber driver to the Twins’ big league roster, even pitching in the playoffs that season. From 2019-20, Dobnak logged 75 innings of 3.12 ERA ball with a 15.7% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and massive 58.8% ground-ball rate. On the back of that performance, Minnesota inked him a five-year, $9.25MM contract extension that contained a trio of club options. It was a low-cost move that provided the Twins ample contractual upside if Dobnak proved capable of sustaining anything close to that pace, but injuries and a decline in his performance have rendered the deal underwater.
Dobnak was clobbered for a 7.64 ERA in 2021 after signing that deal. He hit the 60-day injured list late that season with a strained pulley tendon in his right middle finger and missed much of the 2022 campaign with a similar issue. He pitched just 25 minor league innings that year and none in the majors. The Twins removed him from the 40-man roster and passed him through waivers that September. Dobnak was healthy again in 2023 but struggled to a 5.13 ERA in 126 1/3 Triple-A frames.
The 2024 season has been something of a rebound campaign, at least in the Triple-A ranks. Dobnak has made 23 starts and four relief appearances for the Saints, working to a 3.90 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 57.4% grounder rate in 129 1/3 innings. That performance earned him another look in the big leagues, but he was tagged for five runs nine hits and five walks in 7 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment once again.
Chris Martin Expects 2025 To Be His Final Season
Veteran reliever Chris Martin turned 38 in June and is a free agent at season’s end, but the Red Sox righty tells MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith that he still intends to play in 2025. Next year, however, will “95%” be his final season, per Martin himself. The towering 6’8″ righty discusses the decision at length in an interview with Smith that fans will want to read in full for a wide slate of candid quotes. Broadly, Martin cites a growing family — his wife is pregnant with their fourth child — and the increasing toll the game can take on one’s physical and mental health in the latter stages of a career for his plan to wrap things up after the ’25 campaign.
Martin has had separate IL stints in 2024 for a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury, right elbow inflammation and anxiety. He’s been effective when on the mound, posting a 3.35 ERA in 40 1/3 innings. As is typical for the big righty, he’s missed bats at an above-average level and shown off perhaps the best command in all of Major League Baseball. Martin has punched out 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a microscopic 1.2% clip. That’s a sensational mark even by his own lofty standards, but Martin’s career 3.2% walk rate (and 2.7% mark since 2021) has long illustrated his elite ability to locate the ball.
While Martin has lost a mile per hour off his four-seamer this season amid those injuries, he’s still checking it an average of 94.7 mph with the pitch. The slightly reduced fastball hasn’t adversely impacted him all that much; his 11% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last season’s mark, and his opponents’ 79.7% contact rate is down ever so slightly from last year’s 80% mark. If anything, his four-seamer has been more effective this year. Opponents hit .313 off the pitch and slugged .521 against it last year. Those marks are down to .241 and .389 in 2024. Martin’s sinker has been hammered by opponents this season, and he’s begun to throw it less frequently as a result (8.7% in ’24 compared to 15% in ’23). That’s contributed to a dip in ground-ball rate (51% last year, 44% this year), but the overall blend of whiffs, command and grounders remains an effective package for the nine-year big league veteran.
Notably, Martin didn’t address whether that final season would come with the Red Sox or with another club. It’d be a surprise if the Sox didn’t want him back, given how well he’s pitched under his current two-year, $17.5MM deal. He’s delivered 91 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates — all while piling up 37 holds and five saves along the way.
There will, of course, be widespread interest in Martin — as one would expect based on his overall track record. He’s rattled off six straight seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA and twice posted sub-2.00 marks in that stretch. Overall, Martin has a 2.79 earned run average, 83 holds and 13 saves dating back to 2019. Given his age and current plans to call it a career after the 2025 season, one would imagine he’ll prioritize signing with a contender in hopes of adding a second World Series ring to match the one he earned with the 2021 Braves.
[Related: 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List]
Martin will have plenty of competition on the relief market, but the fact that he’ll presumably limit himself to one-year offers should create a wide array of suitors. He’ll be one of the top leverage relievers on the market. Names like David Robertson, A.J. Minter, Yimi Garcia, Andrew Kittredge and Tommy Kahnle (to name a few) have had nice seasons working primarily in a setup capacity. Kirby Yates, Carlos Estevez, Clay Holmes, Aroldis Chapman and teammate Kenley Jansen are among the impending free agents who’ve spent a notable portion of the 2024 season working as a closer.
Orioles Designate Craig Kimbrel For Assignment
The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Craig Kimbrel for assignment. Baltimore has recalled righty Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk in his place.
Kimbrel, 36, was signed to a one-year, $13MM deal over the winter after All-Star closer Felix Bautista required Tommy John surgery last October. The club banked on Kimbrel’s track record and excellent strikeout rate helping to solidify the ninth inning, even after Kimbrel had a shaky finish to his 2023 stint with the Phillies — including three innings of NLCS work wherein he yielded four runs.
At least early in the year, Kimbrel was generally effective, even while walking a highwire. His walk rate was up, but so was his strikeout rate, and in spite of four blown saves in the season’s first half he pitched to a pristine 2.10 earned run average. As things have gone off the rails since the All-Star break, he’s ceded the ninth inning to deadline pickup and former Phillies teammate Seranthony Dominguez.
Dating back to July 14, Kimbrel has been decimated for 25 runs (23 of them earned) in 18 innings of work. He’s yielded 23 hits (five of them homers), walked 17 batters and plunked a hitter during that disastrous run. The tipping point was a six-run meltdown in last night’s loss to the Giants. Kimbrel faced eight batters, allowed three hits (two singles and a double), walked two hitters and allowed a runner to advance on a wild pitch in what was his worst and likely last outing of the 2024 season.
Kimbrel will be placed on waivers, and he’ll surely clear. He’d be ineligible for the postseason roster with another club, and a claiming team would be on the hook for the prorated remainder of this year’s $12MM salary and the $1MM buyout on next year’s club option. No team is going to make that move. He’ll clear waivers and be released, at which point the club option will be moot (though the O’s will still owe him that $1MM buyout). He could sign with any other club for the final few days of the season, but it’s possible he’ll simply wait until the offseason to seek out his next opportunity.
Kimbrel’s second half has been so gruesome that it’s overshadowed his excellent first half, but a run of two bad months shouldn’t torch any and all interest in him over the winter. He’s not the dominant high-leverage force he once was, but he still fanned 31.5% of his opponents this season and turned in a strong 11.8% swinging-strike rate. His fastball is down from an average of 95.8 mph in 2023 to 93.9 mph in 2024, per Statcast. It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be handed a closing job this offseason, but assuming he wants to continue pitching, Kimbrel should find interest on lower-priced big league deals — perhaps with incentives based on games finished in the event that he ascends back to the closer’s role in his next destination.
Kimbrel currently ranks fifth all-time with 440 saves and is only six behind another still-active closer, Kenley Jansen, for the fourth spot on that list. Either pitcher could still catch Lee Smith for No. 3 all-time (478), but climbing north of 600 alongside Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman isn’t going to happen. In 809 2/3 career innings, Kimbrel has a 2.59 ERA, 56 wins, 26 holds and 1265 strikeouts (38.8%) to go along with those 440 saves.
Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions
The regular season is winding down, and while nearly half the league is still focused on postseason play (or qualifying for said playoffs), there are more teams than not beginning to shift their focus and look ahead to the offseason. The beginning of every offseason brings with it a slew of roster decisions, ranging from qualifying offers to player opt-outs and club options. This year will see more than 30 decisions on club options come due once the World Series has completed. We don’t have a complete picture of how all of these players will finish the season. Their play in the final week, plus any postseason heroics and of course the potential for a significant injury could all impact the teams’ final decisions. But with about 94% of the regular season in the books, most teams know which way they’re leaning with regard to these decisions.
Let’s take a look at each one from a high level…
Austin Barnes, C, Dodgers: $3.5MM club option
The Dodgers’ love Barnes’ framing skills. They probably don’t love that he’s 13-for-122 in throwing out base thieves over the past two seasons (10.6%). Barnes isn’t a good hitter, but he’s bounced back from last year’s abysmal .180/.256/.242 output to his .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances this year. The Dodgers have a trio of younger options behind Will Smith, including Diego Cartaya, Hunter Feduccia and top prospect Dalton Rushing (though Rushing has been working in left field lately). Perhaps it’s finally time to move on, but the cost is cheap enough that they could consider the option.
Aaron Bummer, LHP, Braves: $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)
A pair of three-run outings over the past five weeks have inflated Bummer’s ERA from 3.16 to 3.71, but he’s still generally been a quality reliever after coming over from the White Sox in the offseason. Drilling beneath that earned run average, Bummer sports clearly plus rate stats: 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 60.4% grounder rate. That ground-ball rate ranks eighth in baseball among the 352 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings in 2024. That alone would make Bummer’s option likely to be picked up, but the fact that the Braves hold a 2026 option valued at $7.5MM only sweetens the pot. This feels likely to be exercised.
Andrew Chafin, LHP, Rangers: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
Chafin was very good in Detroit prior to being traded and has struggled with the Rangers since the swap. He’s pitched 14 2/3 innings for Texas and logged a 4.30 ERA with more troubling underlying stats, including a 16.9% walk rate and 1.84 HR/9. Chafin has a strong track record and will get another big league deal this winter, but that’ll probably come after having this option bought out.
Seranthony Dominguez, RHP, Orioles: $8MM club option ($500K buyout)
Dominguez has had a bizarre Orioles tenure. He’s stepped into the ninth inning, saved nine games, punched out a huge 32.9% of his opponents and recorded a tidy 3.26 ERA. He’s also been clobbered for a staggering six home runs in just 19 1/3 innings. A ridiculous 37.5% of the hits he’s allowed with Baltimore have been home runs. Dominguez is averaging better than 98 mph on his heater and sporting elite strikeout/walk rates. If the O’s believe his home run troubles to be a small-sample fluke, this net $7.5MM is a reasonable price to pay for a flamethrowing late-inning reliever — even if he’s working as a setup man to a returning Felix Bautista next year.
Kyle Gibson, RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Gibson has been precisely the stabilizing innings eater the Cardinals hoped to be getting when they signed him. He’s tossed 159 2/3 innings of 4.11 ERA ball, striking out 21.3% of opponents (his best since 2019). His 9.2% walk rate is higher than usual for the 6’6″ righty, but Gibson is limiting homers (1.13 HR/9), keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average clip (45.2%) and averaging better than 5 2/3 innings per start. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently noted how quickly the Missouri native has become a vital leader in the clubhouse as well. For a net $11MM, Gibson feels like a lock to be back in St. Louis.
Marco Gonzales, LHP, Pirates: $15MM club option
Gonzales began the season with three nice starts for the Pirates before enduring a three-month absence due to a flexor injury. He pitched well in his mid-July return, then struggled through three starts before landing back on the shelf and eventually undergoing flexor surgery that’ll keep him out for a significant portion of next season. This would be a no-brainer to decline even if there were a buyout of some magnitude, but there isn’t one, so it’s a foregone conclusion that this will be declined.
Luke Jackson, RHP, Braves: $7MM club option ($2MM buyout)
The 33-year-old Jackson has trimmed his ERA a bit since being traded from San Francisco back to Atlanta, but he’s still sitting on a 5.12 mark this season (4.50 with the Braves). He’s walked 11.1% of his opponents in 2024, including a grim 13.5% mark in 16 frames with Atlanta. The Braves already have a deep and pricey bullpen. Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson and the aforementioned Bummer (assuming his option is indeed exercised) will earn a combined $39.25MM next year. Even if the Braves want to bring Jackson back, they could probably buy this option out and look to do so at a lower rate.
Eloy Jimenez, OF/DH, Orioles: $16.5MM club option ($3MM buyout)
After a hot start following his trade to the Orioles, Jimenez has been a disappointment in Baltimore. Heralded as one of the game’s top prospects and signed to a then-record contract for a player with no MLB experience, he homered 31 times as a rookie but has since battled injuries as his offensive output has dwindled. Jimenez still makes boatloads of hard contact, but most of it comes on the ground; his 56.3% grounder rate is one of the highest in baseball, and it negates his immense raw power. It’d be a shock if the Orioles picked this up for a net $13.5MM.
Merrill Kelly, RHP, D-backs: $7MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Shoulder problems have limited Kelly to 11 starts this season, and he’s posted a 4.00 ERA with uncharacteristic homer issues in 63 innings (1.57 HR/9). He’s also sporting a 19.1% strikeout rate that’s down more than six percentage points from 2023. Even still, this is a flat bargain price for a pitcher who’s given the Snakes 813 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball since signing after a terrific four-year run in the KBO. Barring a scenario where his shoulder is in worse shape than anyone realizes, this option is one of the easier calls to exercise among this year’s slate.
Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF, Rays: $10.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)
It’s been a fairly typical season for Lowe. He’s had strong production at the plate when healthy — but that’s again been a notable caveat. The 30-year-old slugger is hitting .244/.319/.476 with 18 round-trippers in only 379 plate appearances. An oblique strain cost him about six weeks early in the season. Lowe has never had a below-average season at the plate. This year’s 126 wRC+ is an exact match for his career mark. His salary might be getting steep for the Rays’ frugal owner, but a $10.5MM salary in 2025 and an $11.5MM club option for the 2026 season give him trade value for Tampa Bay.
Lance Lynn, RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Because of a knee injury that shelved him on July 31 and kept him out of action into September, Lynn hasn’t pitched as many innings as his rotationmate on this list, Gibson. He’s been effective when on the bump, posting a 3.96 ERA in 111 1/3 innings with respectable strikeout and walk rates of 21.3% and 8.6%. Lynn has been unable to complete five innings in nearly one-third of his starts this season, though, and he’s heading into his age-38 season (as opposed to Gibson’s age-37). With Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and presumably Gibson all in next year’s rotation, plus younger arms like Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy and Sem Robberse all in the mix, Lynn could be bought out in order to reallocate those dollars to other areas of need.
Manuel Margot, OF, Twins: $12MM club option ($2MM buyout)
The Twins acquired Margot in a trade that saw the Dodgers cover the majority of his salary. Minnesota is only on the hook for $4MM of what he’s owed in 2024. The Rays, who initially traded him to the Dodgers, agreed to cover the $2MM buyout on Margot’s option as part of the trade. The Twins aren’t bringing Margot back at $12MM. He’s hit lefties quite well but has floundered against righties and is no longer the premium defender he once was. This is a lock to be declined.
Phil Maton, RHP, Mets: $7.75MM club option ($250K buyout)
The Rays signed Maton to a one-year, $6.5MM deal in mid-February. He struggled throughout his time with Tampa Bay, with uncharacteristically poor strikeout and walk rates (19.7% and 11.9%, respectively). The Rays traded Maton to the Mets in an early July swap that netted them a PTBNL. It was a salary-driven swap and it’s worked out wonderfully for the Mets. Maton has not only returned to form but enjoyed one of the best stretches of his career. In 22 2/3 innings, he touts a 2.38 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. The net $7.5MM decision could still prove steep, particularly for a team that typically lives in the top luxury tax bracket and would thus effectively be paying a 110% tax on next year’s $7.75MM salary. The Mets can afford it if they feel this version of Maton will sustain his output over a full season, but it’s a borderline call.
Shelby Miller, RHP, Tigers: $4.45MM club option ($250K buyout)
Miller’s one-year, $3.25MM deal with Detroit included a $4.25MM club option, but he’s boosted that option value by $200K thanks to escalators in his contract tied to his number of games pitched. With a 4.53 ERA, below-average strikeout rate and a notable susceptibility to home runs, Miller is far from a lock to see the option picked up. He’s doing his best to make the Tigers think about it, however, with a 1.15 ERA and 16-to-4 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings across his past 14 appearances.
Yoan Moncada, 3B, White Sox: $25MM club option ($5MM buyout)
Moncada missed more than five months with an adductor injury and now has a .236/.292/.387 slash across his past 207 big league games. The White Sox will buy him out.
Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF, Orioles $8MM club option
O’Hearn’s big first half, which was fueled by an astonishing drop to a sub-10% strikeout rate, has given way to a pedestrian second half. Like many O’s hitters, he’s limping to the finish line. After hitting .274/.352/.452 through his first 364 plate appearances, O’Hearn has tanked with a .189/.240/.267 slash in his past 96 trips to the plate. That’s dropped his season line to a good-not-great .255/.328/.411 (111 wRC+). Baltimore has only given the lefty-swinging O’Hearn 39 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year, and that $8MM salary is starting to feel like more than they’ll want to commit to a defensively limited platoon bat, particularly considering their crowded roster of position players.
Marcell Ozuna, DH, Braves: $16MM club option ($1MM buyout)
The 34-year-old Ozuna is in the midst of his worst month of the season, but even that means he’s merely been about league-average at the plate in September. He sports a mountainous .303/.380/.550 slash and 37 dingers on the season. It’s the best performance of his career outside the 60-game 2020 season (.338/.431/.636). Atlanta will pick this option up, even with Jorge Soler locked into the roster for two more seasons following his deadline acquisition.
Freddy Peralta, RHP, Brewers: $8MM club option ($1.5MM buyout)
Among the easiest calls in this slate of club options, Peralta currently has a 3.75 ERA in 30 starts and 163 1/3 innings of work. He’s set down nearly 27% of his opponents on strikes and issued walks at a 9.2% clip. If his steady mid-rotation work over the years wasn’t incentive enough to pick up this option — and, for the record, it very much is — the contract contains a second club option for the 2026 season, which is also valued at $8MM.
Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners: $12MM club option ($750K buyout)
Like so many of the Mariners’ recent acquisitions, things just haven’t clicked in Seattle for Polanco. The switch-hitter was steadily (and quietly) a big contributor in Minnesota from 2018-23, hitting .270/.338/.445 — including a 33-homer showing in his peak 2021 campaign. With the Mariners, he’s slashed just .203/.296/.342 on the season. To Polanco’s credit, he picked things up around the season’s midpoint and posted solid numbers in July and August, but he’s in a dreadful September swoon and appears destined to have this option bought out.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Yankees: $17MM club option ($6MM buyout)
Rizzo missed 63 games with the 2023 Yankees and turned in a roughly league-average performance at the plate. He’s going to end up missing about 70 games this season, thanks to a broken forearm. At the moment, he owns a .215/.283/.325 batting line on the season — his worst output since his rookie season with the 2011 Padres. The 35-year-old’s option is likely to be declined.
Miguel Rojas, SS, Dodgers: $5MM club option ($1MM buyout)
A .297/.342/.421 batting line (115 wRC+) through 315 plate appearances, coupled with borderline elite defense at shortstop, for a net $4MM. Not much more needs to be said. This one is an easy call to exercise.
Max Stassi, C, White Sox: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
Acquired in a salary-dump trade with the Braves over the winter, Stassi opened the season on the injured list with hip inflammation and eventually required surgery. He didn’t get into a game this year. This will be bought out.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, D-backs: $15MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Earlier in the season, Suarez’s struggles at the plate led the D-backs to reduce his playing time in favor of rookie Blaze Alexander. Things can change in a hurry. Since July 1, Suarez boasts a gargantuan .321/.369/.663 batting line (177 wRC+). He’s ripped 22 homers and 18 doubles in 274 plate appearances during that stretch. Suarez is now two big flies shy of his fifth 30-homer season. There’s no reason to think the D-backs will want to move on, but even if they did, they could pick up this $15MM option and find trade interest. There’s very little chance this one is bought out.
Brent Suter, LHP, Reds: $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout)
Suter came to his hometown Reds as advertised: middling strikeout rate, strong command, gobs of weak contact. He’s piled up 63 2/3 innings of relief work and notched a terrific 3.19 ERA. At a net $3.25MM, there’s no reason to decline this option.
Luke Weaver, RHP, Yankees: $2.5MM club option
There was plenty of understandable eye-rolling from Yankees fans when Weaver, who posted an ERA north of 6.00 in 2020, 2022 and 2023 signed a major league deal over the winter. It’s proven to be one of the best buys of the offseason for any team, however. The former top prospect has been a revelation in Aaron Boone‘s bullpen, tossing 78 2/3 innings of 3.09 ERA ball with a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate. Weaver is throwing harder than ever and has leaned heavily on what was once a seldom-used cutter. This one is a slam dunk; there’s no way the Yankees would cut Weaver loose when he could be retained so affordably.
Devin Williams, RHP, Brewers: $10.5MM club option ($250K buyout)
Williams missed the first three-plus months of the season due to fractures in his lower back but has been excellent when healthy. In 17 1/3 frames, he’s put up a sparkling 1.53 ERA with a comical 43.8% strikeout rate against a 12.8% walk rate. The 29-year-old differs from the others on this list in that his club option season covers his final arbitration year. He agreed to the option year at a fixed price in order to avoid going to an arbitration hearing this past offseason. It’s at least possible that the Brewers could buy out the option and try to negotiate a slightly lower price. The $10.5MM price on his option only represents a 40% raise over this year’s salary, however. Even if the Brewers feel there’s a possibility for some marginal savings, they’d be so slight that it might not be worth the hassle and the potential for frustrating a key player like Williams.
Tigers Notes: Keith, Jung, Offseason
Tigers second baseman Colt Keith departed yesterday’s game after injuring his shoulder on a diving play. As noted by Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic, the 23-year-old initially stayed in the game after the incident but took himself out later on after he realized he couldn’t throw at full strength.
Keith will be sent for testing by the Tigers but the club is hopeful the injury won’t prove to be significant. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Keith suffered an injury to the same shoulder as a prospect back in 2022 that limited him to 48 games that year, though the rookie told reporters after the game that yesterday’s issue “felt different” than his old shoulder ailment.
An absence of virtually any length could have a significant impact on the AL playoff picture with just over a week remaining in the regular season and Detroit just 1.5 games behind the Twins for the final AL Wild Card spot. Keith, who signed a pre-debut extension with the Tigers over the offseason that guaranteed him just over $28.5MM over six years, struggled early in his MLB career but has really turned things around in recent months, with a solid .293/.340/.444 slash line in his 403 trips to the plate that’s brought his full-season offensive performance to essentially league average (99 wRC+).
Utilityman Zach McKinstry, who has hit just .224/.284/.352 in 109 games with the club this year, would presumably see an uptick in playing time in the event that Keith misses any time or heads to the injured list. Top prospect Jace Jung is another option. He’s played third base exclusively since being brought up to the majors but has spent more time at second base in his minor league career. Jung is out to a .214/.337/.257 start through his first 83 MLB plate appearances, but he turned in a more impressive .257/.377/.454 slash in Triple-A prior to his promotion.
Both Keith and Jung have split their professional playing careers between second base and third base, with a bit more of an emphasis on the former. There’s potential for Jung to cement himself as the team’s everyday third baseman now that Keith increasingly looks to be the long-term second baseman, but Jung is still adapting at third base after spending his college career at second base. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Jung may not end up as a fixture at the hot corner, in part because the Tigers stand as a viable fit for free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, who obviously has longstanding ties to Detroit skipper (and former Astros manager) AJ Hinch.
That scenario is framed in speculative fashion, to be clear. Conceptually, however, it’s sensible for the Tigers to consider premium free-agent additions and to be willing to move from the top tiers of their farm system. The team only has likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal under club control through 2026, and while an extension is always possible, those chances are lessened given that he’s represented by the Boras Corporation. There will surely be efforts to keep Skubal, be they via extension or free agency, but the two remaining years he has with the team do create something of a window.
Skubal headlines a growing core that also includes Riley Greene, Reese Olson, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and the aforementioned Keith, among others. They’re still hopeful of getting meaningful contributions from former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize, but neither has lived up to expectations thus far (though Torkelson has been productive since returning from Triple-A, hitting .267/.330/.448 — albeit with a 32% strikeout rate and .375 BABIP). Jung and young Justyn-Henry Malloy could both be prominent players, and Detroit has two of the game’s top overall prospects in outfielder Max Clark and right-hander Jackson Jobe.
It’s hard to imagine Clark or Jobe on the table in offseason trade talks, but the Tigers have surged into the postseason picture and figure to have a relatively aggressive offseason in store whether they reach the playoffs or narrowly miss. But with room for additions at third base, on the pitching staff (rotation and bullpen) and perhaps another corner bat in the first base/outfield/designated hitter mold, the Tigers have myriad paths to bolstering the roster, any number of which could be accomplished via trading from their non-Clark/Jobe prospect depth.
In terms of payroll capacity, while the Javier Baez contract looms large as an albatross, he and Keith are the only players signed to guaranteed contracts beyond the 2025 season. There’s considerable room for the Tigers to make a splash or two — if not from the top tier of available names then certainly in the three- or four-year range for mid-market free agents.
Tigers Sign Tomas Nido To Minor League Deal
The Tigers signed catcher Tomas Nido to a minor league deal, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Nido was announced in the lineup for the Triple-A Toledo MudHens today, so the signing is clearly already official. Nido, an ACES client, was with the Cubs and Mets earlier this season but was cut loose by Chicago at the end of August. Since he’s signed well into September, he won’t be eligible for postseason play in the event that the surging Tigers qualify, but he’ll give them some glove-first depth behind the plate in the season’s final couple weeks.
Nido, 30, has appeared in 49 games between the Mets and Cubs this season but struggled to a .192/.219/.315 batting line in 140 trips to the plate. As usual, he’s drawn strong grades for his defense at catcher. Nido’s 23% caught-stealing rate is better than league-average (21%), and he grades well in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt. However, this is his second straight season with a sub-.200 batting average and an OBP south of .220.
While Nido’s bat has cratered the past two seasons, he’s still not far removed from being a highly serviceable backup with the Mets. From 2020-22, he hit .236/.275/.338 in exactly 500 plate appearances and did so while grading out as one of the premier defensive backstops in the game. His offense during that time was about 28% worse than that of a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, but catchers are generally lighter hitters than the standard big leaguer. The average catcher tends to be around 10% to 12% worse than par with the bat, so Nido’s shortcomings at the plate during that three-year run weren’t as glaring as they’d have been at another position — particularly when coupled with his defensive contributions.
The Tigers traded Carson Kelly to the Rangers prior to the deadline and haven’t gotten any real offensive production out of Jake Rogers and rookie Dillon Dingler behind the dish. That said, Rogers himself is an elite defender at his position and has at least managed to pop 10 homers and 15 doubles on the season. Nido could get a look if either player requires a late trip to the injured list, but he’ll otherwise likely become a minor league free agent at season’s end.
Christian Scott To Undergo UCL Surgery
Top Mets pitching prospect Christian Scott will undergo a combined Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure, agent Nate Heisler of Klutch Sports announced this morning (X link). The hybrid procedure will be performed by Dr. Keith Meister next week and will very likely keep Scott out of action for the entire 2025 season.
Scott, 25, made his big league debut this season and pitched to a 4.56 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 47 1/3 frames. The 6’4″ righty, selected in the fifth round of the 2021 draft, was diagnosed with a UCL sprain in late July and opted for non-surgical rest and rehab before committing to the upcoming surgery. Given the timing of the injury and the looming hybrid procedure, it was likely that Scott would’ve missed most or all of the 2025 season anyhow had gone under the knife back in late July at the time of his original IL placement, so at least attempting non-surgical rehab made plenty of sense.
Scott breezed through the minors across the past two seasons, posting sub-3.00 ERAs at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A along the way. He currently ranks as the game’s No. 63 overall prospect at Baseball America and was just a couple innings from graduating off that list prior to his injury. Scott will only pick up a partial season of major league service time in 2024 but figures to spend the entire 2025 campaign accruing service time on the 60-day injured list, as he was pitching in the majors at the time of his injury. He’ll be under club control through at least the 2030 season.
The loss of Scott for all of next season only further underscores a need for the Mets to pursue rotation upgrades this winter. While the team’s immediate focus is, of course, on the ongoing Wild Card battle in the National League, the front office will soon be tasked with restocking a rotation that’s on the cusp of thinning out in dramatic fashion. Luis Severino and Jose Quintana are both free agents at season’s end. Sean Manaea is signed through 2025 but has an opt-out clause in his contract that he’ll surely be taking on the heels of an outstanding 2024 season.
The only starters with big league experience whom the Mets have under control for 2025 are Kodai Senga, Paul Blackburn, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Jose Butto. Senga made only one start this year due to a shoulder strain and a calf strain. Blackburn has been limited to 55 starts across the past three seasons thanks to a variety of injuries (most notably a torn tendon in his middle finger in 2022). Peterson and Megill have both had strong seasons — the former, in particular — but have both been depth options who’ve yet to complete a full MLB season as a starter. Butto moved to the bullpen earlier this summer and has been very effective as a reliever.
The Mets do have some promising minor league arms on the rise, headlined by right-hander Brandon Sproat, who ranks 37th among the game’s prospects at MLB.com and 61st at Baseball America. He could very well debut next season. Still, given both the names they stand to lose to free agency and the injury and workload concerns for the rotation options in next year’s projected group, it’s easy to recognize that starting pitching will be among president of baseball operations David Stearns’ top priorities this winter. That would’ve been true even if Scott were given a clean bill of health, but the need is even more acute now that one of their top homegrown talents is likely down until the 2026 campaign.