Diamondbacks Outright Andrew Knizner
Diamondbacks catcher Andrew Knizner cleared waivers following his recent DFA and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Reno, reports Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports. The D-backs designated Knizner for assignment over the weekend to open 40-man roster space for lefty Brandon Hughes.
While Knizner has the right to reject the assignment based on his four-plus years of major league service, he’ll likely accept it for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he’s four weeks shy of five years of big league service time, which is the threshold needed to reject an outright assignment and retain the remaining salary on a guaranteed contract. Rejecting would mean forfeiting the remainder of his $1.825MM salary this season.
Secondly, Knizner would be an option for a return to the big league roster in the event of an injury to one or more of the catchers ahead of him on the 40-man roster. There’s at least a path, albeit a narrow one, to him being brought back up during the postseason. He’d be ineligible for postseason consideration with a new team and would likely wait until the offseason to sign a new deal anyhow at this point. As a player with more than three years of MLB service who’s been outrighted off a 40-man roster, Knizner can become a free agent at season’s end if he is not added back to the 40-man roster.
Knizner, 29, was non-tendered by the Cardinals last offseason and signed a one-year deal with the Rangers. He appeared in 37 games with Texas, working as a backup to Jonah Heim and batting just .167/.183/.211 in 93 trips to the plate. That was far and away the least-productive run of his career, though Knizner entered the season as a lifetime .216/.290/.331 hitter in 794 plate appearances with the Cards, so he’s never exactly been known for his bat (at least in the major leagues). Texas designated Knizner for assignment last month, and the D-backs claimed him and optioned him to Reno. He did not appear in a big league game with Arizona but has batted .274/.357/.397 in 84 Triple-A plate appearances with the organization.
Heading into the 2024 campaign, Knizner had 4.021 years of big league service, leaving him 151 days shy of reaching five years of service. He’d have been eligible for arbitration with Texas had he spent the entire year on the roster and subsequently ticketed for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason. However, he only accrued 123 days of service in the majors this year and will thus finish out the season at 4.144 years. Because of this, whoever signs him this offseason — presumably on a minor league deal — will have the ability to control him through the 2026 season via arbitration, should he rebound at the plate and once again play his way into a steadier big league role.
Royals’ James McArthur Placed On Injured List
2:45pm: The Royals have placed McArthur on the 15-day IL with a right elbow sprain, recalling right-hander Steven Cruz in a corresponding move.
11:43am: Royals reliever James McArthur exited last night’s game due to elbow tightness, the team announced. He’s undergoing testing today to determine the source of the discomfort and the severity of any potential injury, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com.
McArthur initially looked to have suffered a hand injury when covering first base on an infield single off the bat of Zach McKinstry, but manager Matt Quatraro tells Rogers that wasn’t the issue. McArthur stayed in to face the next batter after McKinstry reached but shook his arm after missing badly off the plate on a fastball to Jake Rogers (video link). He began to set for his next pitch, but catcher Salvador Perez called for the training staff after seeing his right-hander shake that arm. Per Quatraro, McArthur acknowledged that “something felt off” in his arm, and he quickly departed with trainer Chris DeLucia.
The 27-year-old McArthur opened the 2024 season as the Royals’ closer and still leads the club with 18 saves, though he’s since ceded ninth-inning duties to deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg. That switch was borne both out of both Erceg’s excellence and a midseason rough patch for the hard-throwing McArthur. After a couple of rocky appearances to begin the season, McArthur found his groove and rattled off 36 2/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball from April 5 through July 23. Those are arbitrary endpoints, of course, but it’s roughly half a season’s worth of quality bullpen work from a pitcher who’d been trusted with the highest-leverage role in Quatraro’s bullpen.
McArthur, however, was shelled for eight runs over his next two appearances on July 24 and 28. The Royals acquired Erceg from the Athletics two days later. McArthur has pitched primarily in a middle relief role since and has a 3.77 ERA in 14 1/3 innings in that span, with the bulk of the damage against him coming in one brutal day at Yankee Stadium. Overall, McArthur has a 4.92 ERA on the season, although that number is skewed heavily by his past six weeks or so of tumultuous performance.
There hasn’t been a pronounced drop in McArthur’s velocity, although his sinker is down a bit in recent outings. He averaged 95.1 mph on the pitch through the sixth of September but has seen the pitch clock in at an average of 94.3 mph across his past three appearances. McArthur has had similar dips in velocity throughout the year, so it’s not necessarily alarming in isolation, but any change in stuff/velocity when coupled with arm discomfort is a red flag.
The Royals are already without deadline pickup Hunter Harvey (back strain) and veteran free-agent signees Will Smith (back spasms) and Chris Stratton (flexor strain). Erceg, John Schreiber and former starters Kric Bubic and Daniel Lynch IV are among the top options left in an increasingly injury-marred Kansas City bullpen.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Blue Jays Outright Yerry Rodriguez
Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Blue Jays and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com.
Rodriguez, 26, only saw a brief look in Toronto and struggled considerably in that time. The hard-throwing righty was tagged for nine runs (eight of them earned) on 10 hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 4 2/3 frames. He posted a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings with the Rangers prior to being acquired in a June trade that sent minor league righty Josh Mollerus to Texas. (Rodriguez had been designated for assignment in Texas as well, prior to that swap.)
This is the third season in which Rodriguez has logged at least some time in the majors, but he’s yet to find any success. He’s pitched 36 1/3 innings at the game’s top level and been torched for an 8.17 ERA. Rodriguez averages better than 96 mph on his heater and has shown a repeated ability to miss bats in the upper minors, but his bottom-line results have been suspect even at the Triple-A level. In parts of four seasons there, he’s totaled 156 innings with a 5.31 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate.
Rodriguez doesn’t have the major league service time or prior outright required to become a free agent immediately, but he can become a minor league free agent at season’s end.
Report: Buster Posey Spearheaded Extension Talks With Matt Chapman
The Giants’ six-year, $151MM extension for third baseman Matt Chapman marked a departure from the organization’s reluctance to commit to players on long-term deals under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though perhaps there’s an explanation for that. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that Giants ownership was “frustrated” by the lack of progress in talks between Zaidi and Chapman’s agent, Scott Boras, and intervened. Franchise icon Buster Posey, who bought a minority stake in the team in 2022 and is one of six members on the board of directors, took a lead role in the talks and negotiated the framework of the deal with Chapman himself, according to Baggarly. Readers are highly encouraged to check out the piece in full, as it contains a slew of details on the unusual nature of the Chapman negotiations.
Posey personally taking on such a prominent role in a franchise-altering negotiation is a potentially damning indictment on Zaidi’s status within the organization. The sixth-year president of baseball operations signed an extension just last year, but what was originally reported as a three-year contract has since been revealed to be a two-year contract covering the 2024-25 seasons and containing what’s effectively a club option for the 2026 season.
It’s not clear that the pair of reports, which surfaced within a week of one another, is evidence that Zaidi is on the proverbial hot seat. At the same time, it seems fair to infer — particularly in light of the revelation regarding his contract — that he’s not on quite as steady ground as it may have seemed even a few weeks ago. Giants ownership has publicly backed Zaidi whenever given the opportunity, but Posey’s prominent role in Chapman’s extension only raises questions of potential dissatisfaction. The Giants won’t be reaching the postseason this year, and they’re tracking toward what would be a fifth losing season in six under Zaidi’s tenure.
While the end result is the same regardless of who’s negotiating the contract, the journey to that agreement is notable. Maybe this was just a one-off where the board felt Posey, as a former player, could appeal directly to a player he’s gotten to know over the course of the current season. If things have reached the point where ownership has genuinely lost faith in Zaidi’s vision and/or his ability to close deals, that would be a far more alarming development and likely the portent for a change of note in the front office.
It’s worth noting, of course, that the Giants have signed plenty of free agents under Zaidi’s watch (MLBTR Contract Tracker link). The majority have been short-term pacts, however. The Giants let successfully rehabilitated pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon walk rather than pay market price for either pitcher. (The latter decision seems wise; the former is regrettable.) They pursued Bryce Harper in free agency but reportedly stopped just $20MM or so short of Harper’s eventual contract with the Phillies. A pursuit of Aaron Judge ultimately only served to drive up the price for the Yankees, who kept their homegrown star. A massive 13-year deal with Carlos Correa was scuttled when the Giants raised concerns about Correa’s physical.
Center fielder Jung Hoo Lee (six years, $113MM) is the only free agent the Giants have signed for more than Jordan Hicks‘ four years or more than Blake Snell‘s $62MM guarantee. The aversion to long-term deals has certainly kept the Giants’ payroll outlook clean, but the results on the lower-cost free agent deals made have frequently failed to pan out. Mitch Haniger and Jorge Soler both signed three-year deals and were both dumped in salary-driven trades before the second season of said contracts commenced. Tommy La Stella was released two years into a three-year contract. The Giants dumped the final season of Anthony DeSclafani‘s three-year deal on the Mariners along with Haniger. The second season of Ross Stripling‘s two-year deal was sent to the A’s in a salary dump deal. Michael Conforto has been a roughly league-average bat over the life of his two-year, $36MM deal. Smaller-scale two-year deals for Luke Jackson (dumped along with Soler) and Tom Murphy have backfired.
Zaidi undoubtedly built plenty of goodwill with home-run signings of Gausman, Drew Smyly, Derek Holland and (the first time) DeSclafani. Low-cost pickups of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Joc Pederson, Darin Ruf, Donovan Solano and Thairo Estrada (among others) have also been unmitigated successes. But many of those early success stories have since moved on, while others have seen their effectiveness fade. And the recent low-cost acquisitions haven’t had the same level of impact on the organization, while the farm has seen several top prospects stall out.
All of that is vital context when trying to ascertain what the Chapman report signals for Zaidi and his future with the organization. Zaidi himself downplayed the scenario to Baggarly, suggesting he and ownership worked “in sync” and telling Baggarly that ownership involvement is to be expected on a contract of this magnitude. That’s true, broadly speaking, though ownership circumventing both the front office and the player agent to hammer out a deal is not typical business.
Given the Giants’ likely interest in keeping Snell — another Boras client — the manner in which the Chapman deal came together is all the more intriguing. The Boras Corporation also represents a significant number of free agents this offseason: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Yusei Kikuchi, J.D. Martinez, Nick Martinez, Sean Manaea and Tyler O’Neill are among the most notable Boras clients that could be on the market this winter (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database).
Poll: Paul Goldschmidt And The Qualifying Offer
Heading into the 2024 season, the main question surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one of whether the Cardinals would be able to get an extension done. Interest in a new contract for Goldschmidt was reported as far back as December, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in January that extension talks could be tabled until early in the season. At the time, Goldschmidt was fresh off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 games. That didn’t come close to his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it was still well north of the league average and made Goldschmidt one of the more productive first basemen in the game.
Fast forward a few months, and the narrative has changed dramatically. Goldschmidt got out to the worst start of his career and seemed wholly unable to recover. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, May and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially excellent Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than an average hitter at the plate.
Even if one looked at the dip from his 2022 production to his 2023 output as the potential beginning of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a genuine surprise. Goldschmidt hadn’t simply had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% walk rate was nowhere near his career mark. Goldschmidt was still hitting the ball hard, but his contact was less frequent and much of that hard contact was coming in the form of hard grounders rather than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball rate in the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.
Since that point, things have begun to turn around. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive showing in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 since the calendar flipped to July — including a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Again, this isn’t a simple change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout rate from the season’s first three months is down to 23.5% since July 1 — and just 21% since Aug. 1.
Despite that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily become more selective at the plate. He’s still not walking nearly as often as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — nor is he chasing off the plate any less than he did in the season’s first three months. What he has done, however, is become much more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s typically patient approach led him to swing at just 61.4% of pitches in the strike zone from Opening Day through the end of June. Since then, he’s offered at 68.1% of such pitches. His overall swing rate through three months was at 46.2%, but he’s up to 49.4% in the three months since.
Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances end on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on those pitches. Of those 50, 26 came in the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, nearly 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch variety. It’s not a huge difference, but it lends credence to the fact that Goldschmidt has been more aggressive and been better off for it.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half looked like that of a player on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his results. The past two-plus months, however, tell another story. Goldschmidt may not be the MVP-level hitter he was just two seasons ago, but he’s been clearly above-average since July, including an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his past 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and may not recover if he maintains his more aggressive approach, but he’s hitting for average and power alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, starting this hot and then fading toward league-average, his down season likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.
As it stands, league-average is precisely where Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to an even 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is only 2% worse than average. An average-hitting first baseman isn’t generally a QO candidate, but if the Cardinals believe Goldschmidt can sustain his late surge, then there’s good reason to make an offer. Even if he accepts, a $21.2MM salary for a player whom they believe can continue in the vicinity of a .275/.315/.483 pace would be defensible. And if he walks, the Cards would of course be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip side, if Goldschmidt were to accept and revert to his first-half form, it’d be a clear misstep that sets the franchise back in 2025 as they look to return to contending.
It all comes down to how much the Cardinals believe in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and how much they’re willing to risk in the name of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months ago, Goldschmidt would’ve seemed like a no-brainer QO recipient. Three months ago, the decision would’ve seemed like a no-brainer — for the opposite reason. Now, the Cardinals will fall somewhere in the middle. Let’s open this up for a poll:
Should the Cardinals give Paul Goldschmidt a qualifying offer?
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No 61% (4,439)
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Yes 39% (2,880)
Total votes: 7,319
Twins Claim Cole Irvin
The Twins announced Monday that they’ve claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Orioles, who’d designated him for assignment last week. Minnesota opened a 40-man roster spot by designating right-hander Randy Dobnak for assignment. Irvin will join the roster tomorrow, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The veteran lefty would not be eligible for the Twins’ postseason roster, given that he’s being acquired after Sept. 1.
Irvin, 30, will give the Twins some rotation depth for the final couple weeks of the season and can be controlled for two additional seasons via arbitration if the Twins choose. He’s had an up-and-down tenure with the Orioles after being acquired from the A’s in the 2022-23 offseason in a trade that sent infield prospect Darell Hernaiz to Oakland.
Irvin was initially acquired to help stabilize the O’s rotation. From 2021-22, he gave the A’s 62 starts (359 1/3 innings) of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but also a very strong 5.2% walk rate. As a homer-prone lefty who averaged 91 mph with his heater, Irvin had clearly benefited to an extent from the Athletics’ cavernous home park, but his Baltimore tenure got off to a far shakier start than anyone could’ve reasonably expected. Irvin was shelled for 15 runs in his first 12 2/3 innings, and the O’s optioned him to Triple-A after just three appearances. He spent much of the remainder of the ’23 season as an up-and-down swingman.
The 2024 season brought a slew of injuries to the Baltimore staff, and with it came a fresh opportunity for Irvin. He ran with it for a good portion of the season, as he’s rattled off 16 starts and another nine relief appearances — several of them covering three or four innings. In 107 1/3 frames this year, Irvin carries a 4.86 earned run average. He’s fanned 16.2% of his opponents against a 5.3% walk rate — marks that mirror his rate stats from his peak days in Oakland. Home runs have again been an issue (1.43 HR/9), but for an injury-ravaged Twins club that is currently relying on three rookies (Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews) behind Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober, Irvin could provide some veteran help to the staff, whether in the rotation or as a long reliever.
Irvin is earning $2MM this season after avoiding arbitration over the winter. He’s owed about $151K of that between now and season’s end, and the Twins will assume that in full. If he’s retained via arbitration, Irvin isn’t likely to be a particularly costly option; his modest workload and generally pedestrian results this season should keep next year’s salary in the rough vicinity of $3MM, assuming he’s tendered a contract. He’s out of minor league options, so Irvin will need to stick on the Twins’ roster this year and throughout the offseason or else once again be designated for assignment and likely exposed to outright waivers.
Irvin hasn’t started a game since Aug. 27, when he tossed 60 pitches over 4 1/3 innings. He did toss three innings and 43 pitches on Sept. 2, plus another one-inning relief outing on Sept. 9 (15 pitches). He may not be stretched out to jump into the rotation and throw 100 pitches, but if the Twins need, he should be an option to pitch as many as three to five innings, depending on pitch count. Whether that’ll happen or whether Irvin will simply head to the ‘pen isn’t yet clear. Lopez will start tonight’s series opener in Cleveland, and he’s slated to be followed by Matthews, Ober and Woods Richardson, respectively. Of that group, Matthews has struggled the most. He’s lined up to start tomorrow. Irvin could piggyback with him or replace him outright, depending on how the Twins feel about the matchup.
In order to make room on the roster, Dobnak will be designated for assignment for a second time in his career. The right-hander was a sensational story in 2019, ascending from indie-ball hurler and part-time Uber driver to the Twins’ big league rotation. He pitched well enough in that debut showing and in the shortened 2020 season (combined 3.12 ERA, 15.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 58.8 GB% in 75 innings) that the Twins signed him to a five-year, $9.25MM contract with a trio of club options.
Injuries and a downturn in performance have soured that modestly priced deal, however. Dobnak was torched for a 7.64 ERA in 2021, removed from the 40-man roster in 2022 and passed through waivers. He posted an ERA north of 5.00 in Triple-A from 2022-23 but has had a rebound in St. Paul this year, logging a 3.90 ERA in 23 starts and four relief appearances for the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate. That prompted a fresh look in the majors, but Dobnak allowed five runs on nine hits and five walks with seven punchouts in 7 2/3 innings.
Dobnak is still owed a bit more than $170K of this year’s $2.25MM salary, plus a $3MM salary in 2025 and at least a $1MM buyout on the first of his three club options. That remaining $4.17MM on his contract will all but assure he clears waivers. He’s been outrighted before, so Dobnak will technically have the opportunity to reject the assignment, but doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of that salary. There’s no chance he’ll do that, so assuming he indeed goes unclaimed, he’ll remain with the organization in Triple-A but no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.
Matt Adams Announces Retirement
Veteran first baseman Matt Adams has announced his retirement from baseball. The 36-year-old penned a lengthy farewell to the sport he loves and thanked his teammates, coaches, clubhouse staff, fans and family in a statement you can read in full on Adams’ social media accounts (X link and Instagram link). Adams will sign a ceremonial one-day contract with the Cardinals next week, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, giving him the opportunity to retire as a member of the organization that first selected him in the 23rd round of the 2009 draft.
The 6’3″, 260-pound Adams made his big league debut just three seasons after being drafted, getting a May/June look during his age-23 season and hitting .244/.286/.384 in his first taste of the majors. By 2013, he’d establish himself as a fixture in the Cardinals’ lineup, hitting .284/.335/.503 and popping 17 homers in just 319 plate appearances. “Big City” went on to produce solid offense in the middle of the order from 2013-17, hitting a combined .272/.317/.473 with 73 homers, 97 doubles and six triples in 1762 plate appearances from ’13-’17.
After moving Matt Carpenter to first base for the 2017 season, the Cardinals no longer had regular at-bats for Adams at first base, however. An early-season injury to Freddie Freeman in Atlanta created an opportunity, and the Cardinals flipped Adams to the Braves in exchange for then-prospect Juan Yepez. Adams caught fire in Atlanta, hitting so well early in his time there that Freeman even briefly moved across the diamond upon his return from the IL and played 16 games at third base as a means of keeping both lefty sluggers in the lineup (prior to the NL’s implementation of the designated hitter).
Adams hit free agency that offseason and signed with the Nationals on a one-year deal. He hit well as the Nats’ primary first baseman (.257/.332/.510), and when the Nats wound up embarking on a late-August sell-off that year, Adams found himself on the waiver wire, where he was claimed — by the Cardinals. His return to St. Louis didn’t go as well as his original stint, however. He slashed just .158/.200/.333 in 60 plate appearances over the season’s final six weeks.
Adams became a free agent again at season’s end, and almost one year to the date of his original deal with the Nationals, he re-signed in Washington on another one-year contract in D.C. It was a fateful return, as although Adams hit only .226 with a .276 on-base percentage, he provided a key source of lefty power and big bat off the bench in what wound up being the Nationals’ Cinderella season. Adams belted 20 homers for manager Davey Martinez’s club as the Nats embarked on a near-unfathomable rebound from a 19-31 start to win the 2019 World Series.
That 2019 season marked the last in which Adams saw even semi-regular action in the majors. He returned to Atlanta for a brief spell in 2020, appearing in 16 games but struggling at the plate. He had a similarly brief run with the Rockies in 2021, logging 22 games and again finding it difficult to recapture his form. Adams spent the 2022 season with the Kansas City Monarchs of the independent American Association and returned to the Nationals organization in 2023, though he spent the entire year with their Triple-A club. He’s been playing with the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana this season (.272/.309/.491, 13 homers) but will now formally call it a career just two weeks after turning 36.
Adams doesn’t sound like someone who plans to be away from baseball for long. In his retirement statement, he expressed an eagerness to travel down a new path within the game.
“I’m excited to seek out opportunities in coaching, where I can continue to contribute to the sport I love,” wrote Adams. “Over the past few years, I’ve had the privilege of taking on a mentoring role as a veteran player. Through that experience, I’ve found a new way to love the game — one that allows me to share my knowledge and help guide the next generation of athletes. That’s the direction I’m eager to explore. … I look forward to the chance to keep competing and winning, this time from a different vantage point.”
With his playing days now formally in the rearview mirror, Adams will turn the page on a career that saw him bat .258/.306/.463 in 2614 major league plate appearances. Along the way, he totaled 624 hits, including 118 home runs, 130 doubles and six triples. Adams scored 297 runs in his career, plated 399 of them, and participated in three different postseasons (2013, 2014 and that 2019 World Series season). He suited up for four major league teams and earned nearly $15MM in salary while accruing more than eight years of big league service. Best wishes to Matt as he takes the next step in his baseball journey.
Nathan Eovaldi Approaching Vesting Player Option Threshold
During the 2022-23 offseason, then-free-agent righty Nathan Eovaldi inked a two-year, $34MM contract with the Rangers. The contract contained a provision for a vesting player option that would give Eovaldi say over his fate for the 2025 season, provided he stayed largely healthy over the course of the contract’s first two seasons. With a combined 300 innings pitched between 2023-24, Eovaldi gains a player option valued at $20MM for the 2025 campaign. The veteran right-hander’s most recent start brought him to 296 innings between the two seasons combined. He’ll trigger the vesting player option if he completes at least four innings in his next start, which is slated to come tomorrow when the Rangers host the Blue Jays. All but two of Eovaldi’s 26 starts this year have lasted at least four innings.
There’s a strong likelihood that Eovaldi will unlock that option tomorrow versus Toronto. It should be emphasized that he’s not locking himself into that $20MM salary for the 2025 season, however, but rather gaining the choice to exercise that $20MM option or turn it down in favor of a return to the open market. There’s perhaps some extra incentive for Eovaldi to consider the player option, as a Texas native — he was born and raised in the Houston area — but he should also be able to top that $20MM guarantee in free agency.
Eovaldi, 35 in September, has been a clearly above-average starter in each of his two seasons in Texas. He’s started a combined 51 games and pitched to a 3.65 ERA across his 296 frames with the Rangers, fanning 23.7% of his opponents against a 7% walk rate. Both marks are better than the league average. He’s also upped his ground-ball rate considerably thanks to an uptick in his splitter usage. A hearty 49.8% of the batted balls against Eovaldi have been grounders; he posted a 43.9% grounder rate in his final two seasons with the Red Sox from 2021-22.
Barring a late injury that throws his 2025 outlook into question, there’s a good case to decline that $20MM player option. Recent examples of multi-year free-agent deals for pitchers beginning in their age-35 season aren’t exactly plentiful, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, but there are a few such cases that underscore the earning power he’ll have.
Back in the 2018-19 offseason, for instance, both J.A. Happ ($34MM) and Charlie Morton ($30MM) inked two-year deal in free agency. Happ had nearly identical numbers in his two prior seasons to those of Eovaldi at present, and he was a year older at the time (to say nothing of the fact that the price of pitching has increased since 2018). Eovaldi also has a steadier track record than he had at the time. Morton, meanwhile, had only just broken out as a high-end starter in his prior two-year run with the Astros — doing so with numbers that resemble Eovaldi’s current Rangers run. Kenta Maeda signed for two years and $24MM with the Tigers just last offseason and did as a 36-year-old coming off a lesser platform showing. Eovaldi clearly has greater earning power than Maeda had.
Generally speaking, few pitchers remain this effective into their mid-30s and return to the market at this time. Many top-tier starters ink contracts of five, six or seven years in length when they reach free agency around age 30 or 31. “Second-tier” free agent starters, as Eovaldi arguably was in his past couple trips to the market, often suffer injuries or begin to lose effectiveness as Father Time chases them down. However, Eovaldi remains a clear playoff-caliber starter, averaging 95.5 mph on his heater and logging better-than-average strikeout, walk and grounder rates while averaging nearly six innings per start.
We’ve certainly seen pitchers in their age-35 seasons or older command contracts worth $20MM or more in terms of annual value, but they’re typically on one-year deals or the type of anomalous contracts reserved for the sport’s elite arms. Justin Verlander has signed extensions and free-agent deals north of this rate in the latter stages of his career, but he’s a future Hall of Famer and three-time Cy Young winner. Max Scherzer‘s record-setting three-year, $130MM deal spanned his age-37 through age-39 seasons, but like Verlander he’s a Cooperstown-bound, multi-time Cy Young winner. Eovaldi’s teammate Jacob deGrom signed the most eye-opening of these deals when he landed five years and $185MM from the Rangers, but a healthy deGrom is arguably the best pitcher on the planet.
Eovaldi isn’t going to command that type of premium annual value, but he has a clear case for another multi-year deal and could take aim at a contract paying him an annual salary in the $20MM vicinity (give or take a couple million). He’s an unusual case when it comes to getting a third bite at the free-agent apple in his mid-30s at a time when he hasn’t lost much, if any, of his effectiveness. Recent mid-rotation starters who could return to the market in their own mid-30s (e.g. Jameson Taillon, Michael Wacha, Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray) will surely be watching closely to see how the market treats Eovaldi this offseason.
Chase Anderson Elects Free Agency
September 15: The Rangers announced this morning that Anderson has cleared waivers and elected free agency.
September 12: The Rangers on Thursday designated right-hander Chase Anderson for assignment, the team announced. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to top pitching prospect Kumar Rocker, whose previously announced promotion to the big leagues is now official. The Rangers have formally selected Rocker’s contract, and he’ll start tonight’s game against Seattle.
Anderson, 36, spent the bulk of the year with the Red Sox but was cut loose and signed a minor league pact with Texas in August. The Rangers selected him to the big league roster on Aug. 31 and now stand as the ninth team for which the journeyman Anderson has pitched in the majors. He appeared in only two games as a Ranger, pitching 6 1/3 innings and surrendering seven earned runs. In 52 innings with Boston, Anderson logged a 4.85 ERA.
Earlier in his career with the D-backs and Brewers, Anderson was a solid mid-rotation starter. From 2014-19, he pitched 857 innings of 3.94 ERA ball, striking out 20.2% of his opponents against a sharp 7.9% walk rate. He’s never been a flamethrower, but Anderson was able to miss enough bats, limit walks and duck enough homers that he had a nice six-year stretch of quality big league innings.
In the five seasons since that time, however, Anderson has regularly been hit hard. He’s posted an ERA north of 5.00 each year since 2020, ultimately combining for 250 1/3 innings with a flat 6.00 ERA. His velocity has been up and down along the way, and he’s seen both his strikeout and walk rates trend in the wrong direction — all while yielding higher levels of hard contact and significantly more home runs. He’s served as a cost-effective innings eater in multiple stops along the way — Toronto, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Colorado — but hasn’t found sustained big league success since the first six years of his career.
Anderson will be released or head to waivers now that he’s been designated and the trade deadline is behind us. He’ll very likely clear outright waivers if the Rangers go that route, at which point he could reject in favor of free agency right now or accept and wait until season’s end to become a minor league free agent.