Rays Trade Greg Jones To Rockies
The Rockies announced the acquisition of infielder/outfielder Greg Jones from the Rays in exchange for minor league left-hander Joe Rock this morning. Colorado designated outfielder Sam Hilliard for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
Jones, 26, was the Rays’ first-round pick back in 2019 — the 22nd overall selection that year. He climbed as high as sixth on the team’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America, heading into the 2022 season, but he’s seen his stock dip since that time. Jones hit just .238/.318/.392 in Double-A that season and followed with a 2023 campaign that saw him bat .244/.318/.432 between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s touted as an 80-grade runner (on the 20-80 scale) and excellent athlete with a plus arm but has defensive concerns at shortstop. Tampa Bay began getting him work in the outfield last year in order to bolster his versatility.
The switch-hitting Jones still has two minor league option years remaining but increasingly looked like he’d been pushed down the organizational depth chart — both in the infield and in the outfield. With the Rockies, he’ll have a clearer path to playing time, particularly in the outfield, where elite-fielding Brenton Doyle is ticketed for regular center field work but will need to improve upon last year’s woeful debut showing at the plate. In theory, an outfield alignment with both Doyle and Jones would give the Rox two elite runners who could cover considerable ground in Coors Field’s expansive outfield grass.
Jones could also give the Rockies some long-term cover in the infield. Touted prospect Ezequiel Tovar is slated to get a continued audition as the everyday shortstop this season but has yet to prove he can hit in the big leagues. At second base, Brendan Rodgers is looking to bounce back from a rough showing in his return from a shoulder injury. He’s only controlled for two more seasons, though, so it’s feasible that Rodgers could emerge as a trade candidate this summer if he’s able to recapture something closer to his 2021-22 form. That’d open further opportunities for Jones.
For the time being, Jones will have an outside chance at cracking the Rockies’ roster. Manager Bud Black told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (X link) that he couldn’t rule out an Opening Day nod for his team’s newest acquisition but also acknowledged that the window to take a look at the speedster is quite short.
In exchange for their 2019 first-rounder, the Rays will receive the Rockies’ 2021 Competitive Balance Round B pick. Rock, 23, was the No. 68 overall pick that summer and climbed as high as the Triple-A level last year — just for a couple innings late in the season.
Heading into the 2024 season, Rock ranked 26th among Colorado farmhands at Baseball America. He spent the bulk of the 2023 season in Double-A Hartford, where he logged 90 innings with a 4.50 ERA, an impressive 27.3% strikeout rate, a solid 8.1% walk rate and a 44.4% grounder rate that’s a couple ticks better than average. Rock was plagued by a .343 BABIP and proved slightly homer-prone (1.30 HR/9), but it was a generally encouraging season for the Ohio product, who’ll give the Rays some upper-level pitching depth and could make his way to the majors at some point in 2024.
MLB.com’s already-updated prospect rankings slot Rock into the No. 19 in Tampa Bay’s system. Scouting reports from BA, MLB and FanGraphs all give Rock the chance for three average or better pitches — two-seamer, slider, changeup — but note that his arsenal is undercut by below-average command. That hasn’t been apparent yet through Rock’s minor league walk rates, but there’s an important distinction between “control” (consistently throwing strikes) and “command” (precisely locating the ball within the zone).
If Rock has more of the former than the latter, that could be exploited by more advanced hitters who take advantage of mistakes within the zone. Then again, the Rays have a reputation for maximizing pitcher performance, so it’s always possible he’ll find another gear following a change of environs and exceed the modest back-of-the-rotation projection he draws on most scouting reports.
For the Rays, adding an upper-minors, close-to-MLB-ready arm like Rock is plenty sensible. Tampa Bay just lost Taj Bradley for a yet-to-be-determined stretch as the promising young righty deals with a pectoral strain. They’ll also be without Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Shane McClanahan to begin the season — and likely for the entire season in McClanahan’s case. Rasmussen had an internal brace procedure last July. Springs had Tommy John surgery last May. McClanahan had Tommy John in August. Touted young right-hander Shane Baz is also still working his way back from late-2022 Tommy John surgery.
Tampa Bay signed old friend Jake Odorizzi to a minor league deal earlier this month after the Bradley injury. He could be the favorite to take the fifth spot in the rotation early in the season, but he signed late enough that he might not be ready for an Opening Day roster spot. As it stands, the Rays have four pitchers locked into rotation spots: Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot. At least early in the season, swingmen Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski could make some spot starts. Both were stretching out to three innings in camp even before Bradley’s injury.
Hilliard only just returned to the Rockies earlier this month after the Orioles placed him on waivers. Baltimore had claimed him from Atlanta earlier in the offseason. He appeared in 40 games and hit .236/.295/.431 through 78 plate appearances with the Braves, fanning in an eye-popping 42.3% of his plate appearances. A heel injury wound up costing him the bulk of the 2023 season.
From 2019-22, Hilliard appeared in 214 games as a Rockie, playing all three outfield spots and batting a combined .212/.294/.423 with 29 homers, 15 steals, a 10% walk rate and an ugly 32.7% strikeout rate over a total of 639 plate appearances. Strikeouts have long been an issue for Hilliard, who touts an impressive .265/.346/.570 slash and 62 homers in just 942 Triple-A plate appearances but has punched out at an unsightly 28.5% clip at that level. The Rockies will have a week to trade Hilliard, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.
Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report the Rockies and Rays were swapping Rock for Jones.
Rays’ Jonathan Aranda To Undergo Surgery On Broken Finger
Rays infielder Jonathan Aranda suffered a broken ring finger while fielding a grounder yesterday and will undergo surgery to place a pin in his finger, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He’s expected to miss at least four to six weeks recovering. He’ll open the season on the major league injured list.
It’s an unfortunate setback for the 25-year-old Aranda, who’s torn through minor league pitching at every stop but hasn’t yet had an opportunity to carve out a regular role at the MLB level in a crowded Rays infield. He’d been slated for a largely regular role to begin the year, splitting time between designated hitter and perhaps at first base. He’ll now head to the injured list instead.
Aranda has logged 190 big league plate appearances, but they’ve come in short stints and with sparse playing time. He’s batted just .212/.311/.345 with four homers, an 11.1% walk rate and 28.4% strikeout rate in that time. That output pales in comparison to the production Aranda has turned in as a regular in the minors. He slashed .325/.410/.540 at the Double-A level before crushing Triple-A opponents at a .328/.421/.565 clip in 899 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s slugged 43 homers, walked at a 12.1% clip and fanned at a 20.8% clip in that 199-game sample of Triple-A action.
Aranda’s injury will likely open the door for more at-bats for righty-swinging Harold Ramirez and/or fellow right-handed-hitting Curtis Mead. The former has been a plus hitter in two seasons with the Rays, slashing .306/.348/.432 (123 wRC+) in 869 trips to the plate from 2022-23. There was considerable talk of a potential Ramirez trade over the winter, and while nothing can be fully ruled out prior to the season for a Rays club that’s ever-active on the trade market, Ramirez seems quite likely headed for a third straight year with Tampa Bay.
Mead, meanwhile, made his big league debut in 2023 and hit .253/.326/.349 in 92 plate appearances of his own. The 23-year-old Aussie has ranked as one of the game’s top overall prospects for the past couple seasons and carries a stout .296/.385/.520 slash with 13 homers, 29 doubles, a pair of triples, a 12.2% walk rate and an 18% strikeout rate in 377 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s a bat-first prospect who’s spent time at third base, second base and first base, with his bat-to-ball skills and plus raw power standing as his carrying tools. Since both Mead and Ramirez are bat-first players, slotting either into a semi-regular DH role could have some appeal for the Rays — at least until Aranda returns. That could set the stage for a potential DH platoon, while Mead could also platoon with lefty-swinging second baseman Brandon Lowe in the infield as well.
Matt McLain Headed For Second Opinion On Injured Shoulder
6:10pm: Bell conceded this evening that McLain will not be available on Opening Day (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). He’s headed for a second opinion to determine the extent of the injury but now seems likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.
12:44pm: Reds infielder Matt McLain was scratched from the lineup Monday due to some discomfort in his left shoulder, prompting the club to have an MRI performed. While the team hasn’t divulged anything conclusive yet, manager David Bell provided an ominous update Wednesday, telling the Reds beat that the MRI found “something” and that the team is still gathering information and determining how to proceed (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). There’s an unusually broad range of outcomes at this point, as Bell didn’t firmly rule out McLain for the Opening Day roster but also acknowledged that there’s a “possibility” of shoulder surgery.
The 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, the now-24-year-old McLain made his big league debut in 2023 and immediately made an impact. In 89 games and 403 trips to the plate, he slashed .290/.357/.507 (128 wRC+) with 16 homers, 23 doubles, four triples and 14 stolen bases (in 19 tries). His 7.7% walk rate was a bit lower than average, while his 28.5% strikeout rate was well north of average.
McLain had some good fortune on balls in play (.385 BABIP), though some of that lofty BABIP is attributable to a huge 24.2% line-drive rate and strong 42.8% hard-hit rate. It’s still fair to project some regression in his performance, but even if he’s not hitting at the borderline star-caliber level he did in 2023, McLain has the look of an everyday fixture in the Reds’ lineup due both to his bat and his defensive versatility.
Though McLain was drafted as a shortstop, he split hit time between the two middle infield slots. Bell suggested earlier in camp that McLain was likelier to focus on second base this season. Elly De La Cruz is expected to take the lion’s share of reps at shortstop, though McLain could slide to that side of the bag in the event of further injury troubles for De La Cruz.
The Reds have a noted infield surplus which was only deepened when they signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year deal over the winter. An 80-game PED suspension for promising 22-year-old Noelvi Marte has thinned out the perceived logjam a bit, and an absence for McLain would lend further clarity to the division of playing time around the diamond. As it stands, Candelario appears lined up for regular work at the hot corner, with De La Cruz at short, McLain at second, Christian Encarnacion-Strand at first base and Spencer Steer in left field. Former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been expected to bounce between second base, first base and designated hitter, though he could certainly reclaim regular playing time at second base if McLain heads to the injured list.
McLain picked up 140 days of major league service time in 2023, leaving him a bit more than a month shy of a full year (172 days). That means the Reds still have six full seasons of control over him, though he’ll very likely wind up reaching Super Two status and thus be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the standard three. The first of those four offseasons of arbitration eligibility would fall after the 2025 campaign. On his current trajectory, McLain wouldn’t qualify for free agency until the 2029-30 offseason.
31 Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities Looming This Week
One of the provisions in that 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.
The first uniform opt-out date on this year’s calendar falls Friday at 1pm CT. Any player can trigger his out clause at that point, and the team will subsequently be given a 48-hour window to either add him to the roster or release him. With many clubs around the league dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.
Angels: OF Jake Marisnick, LHP Drew Pomeranz
Marisnick, 33 this month, is a right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder with a plus glove and questionable bat. He can hold his own against right-handed pitching (career .237/.293/.417, 93 wRC+) but is typically overmatched by righties (.223/.274/.365, 74 wRC+). He’s having a huge spring, but the Angels already have Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, Aaron Hicks and Jo Adell on the 40-man roster.
The 35-year-old Pomeranz was a good starter from 2016-17 and a dominant reliever from 2019-21, but he didn’t pitch in 2022-23 due to arm injuries. He’s pitched 6 2/3 innings with the Angels this spring with middling results.
Blue Jays: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar, 1B Joey Votto
A poor season between the Mets and Angels last year set the stage for the 35-year-old Escobar to take a minor league deal. He’s long been a productive MLB hitter and even topped 30 homers back in 2019, but Escobar’s now in his mid-30s and struggling through an ugly spring while trying to win a spot in a crowded infield mix also featuring Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider.
Votto, 40, has been connected the Blue Jays seemingly forever due to his Canadian roots. He finally suited up for the Jays after agreeing to a minor league deal and homered in his first at-bat of camp. He’s had a lackluster showing at the plate in each of the past two MLB seasons, however.
Cubs: 1B/OF Garrett Cooper, RHP Carl Edwards Jr., OF David Peralta
An underrated hitter for years in Miami, Cooper slashed .274/.350/.444 in nearly 1300 plate appearances from 2019-22 before a poorly timed down showing in 2023’s walk year. He’s hitting quite well in spring training, and the Cubs don’t have a proven option at first base — though they’re understandably high on 26-year-old trade acquisition Michael Busch.
Edwards had a nice 2022 season with the Nats and posted a solid ERA in 2023 but did so with dismal K-BB numbers. He’s competing for a spot in an uncharacteristically crowded Cubs bullpen and could be squeezed out. The 32-year-old pitched for the Cubs from 2015-19, so Chicago brass knows him well. From 2022-23 in D.C., he posted a 3.07 ERA but a middling 20% strikeout rate against a 10.5% walk rate.
Peralta, 36, has a trio of hits and a walk in ten plate appearances this spring. He was an above-average hitter with the D-backs every season from 2017-20 but has been less consistent of late. He’s a left-handed hitter who’s long had glaring platoon splits and is limited to the outfield corners.
Diamondbacks: SS Elvis Andrus
Andrus is 35 but can still pick it at shortstop or second base. His once above-average speed has faded to the 30th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast, but his range at short remains excellent. Andrus hit .251/.304/.358 (81 wRC+) for the White Sox in 2023 and only has one year of above-average offense (2022) in the past six seasons.
Guardians: RHP Carlos Carrasco
Old friend Cookie Carrasco is fighting for the fifth spot in the Guardians’ rotation, and news of Gavin Williams‘ season-opening stint on the injured list could further open the door for the 36-year-old (37 on Thursday) to make the team. Carrasco was torched for a 6.80 ERA with the 2023 Mets. He allowed 1.80 homers per nine frames through 90 innings, with alarming batted-ball metrics (91.5 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, 10.7% barrel rate). He was a solid mid-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he tossed 152 innings of 3.97 ERA ball with sharp strikeout and walk rates.
Marlins: C Curt Casali
The veteran Casali has batted .201/.311/.315 over the past three big league seasons — a 78 wRC+ in 503 plate appearances. The 35-year-old is off to a rough start in camp and is a long shot to unseat defensive-minded Nick Fortes or Christian Bethancourt, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.
Mets: 1B/DH Ji Man Choi
From 2017-22, Choi hit .254/.363/.465 (130 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. He walked at a 14.4% clip when holding the platoon advantage and fanned at a higher-than-average but still-manageable 24.1% rate. Lefties have always had Choi’s number, however, and his overall production cratered in 2023 while he dealt with Achilles and ribcage injuries. He’s fighting for a bench spot in New York alongside DJ Stewart and others.
Nationals: RHP Matt Barnes, OF Eddie Rosario, OF Jesse Winker
Barnes was an All-Star closer with the Red Sox in 2021 and briefly one of the game’s most dominant relievers, fanning more than 40% of his opponents for the bulk of that season. He wore down beginning in August and hasn’t been the same since a hip injury. Barnes’ velocity and strikeouts were way down in 2023 before he underwent season-ending surgery. He should have a good chance to win a spot in a Nationals bullpen that has little established talent.
Rosario and Winker are both left-handed-hitting outfielders who are best deployed in left field — with Winker having a particularly shaky defensive reputation. Winker is the younger of the two at 30 years old (to Rosario’s 32). Winker was quietly one of the most productive hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching for much of his time in Cincinnati, but knee and neck surgery in October 2022 look to have taken their toll on him. Rosario was the far more productive hitter in 2023. There may not be room for both veterans on the Washington roster. Winker has been in camp longer and been more productive in their small samples.
Orioles: 2B Kolten Wong
The Orioles seem to bring in a veteran infielder coming off a down season almost every year. It’s Wong’s turn in 2023. The 33-year-old was one of the game’s worst hitters in ’23, slashing just .183/.256/.263 in 250 plate appearances between the Mariners and Dodgers. That was beyond out of character for Wong, who’d been an average or better hitter in five of the past six seasons. If the O’s don’t want to rush Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, Wong could win a spot on the roster — but he hasn’t hit that well in camp so far.
Pirates: RHP Chase Anderson
It’s been five years since Anderson’s last solid season in a big league rotation, but the well-liked veteran continues to get work each season. From 2020-23, he’s pitched to a 6.19 ERA in 192 MLB frames — including a 5.42 mark in 86 1/3 innings last year (mostly with the Rockies). Anderson doesn’t miss many bats, but he has good command and is having a nice spring with the Pirates. He’s competing with Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, Domingo German and others for one of two generally open rotation spots in Pittsburgh.
Rangers: INF Matt Duffy, RHP Shane Greene, RHP Jose Urena
A contact-oriented hitter who can play all over the infield, the 33-year-old Duffy faces an uphill battle with Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and Justin Foscue all on the 40-man roster ahead of him. Nathaniel Lowe will open the season on the injured list, but that’ll likely work to Jared Walsh‘s benefit more than Duffy.
Greene, 35, is a former All-Star closer/setup man who peaked with the Tigers and Braves from 2017-20. He’s thrown just three innings in each of the past two MLB seasons but also turned in strong numbers with the Cubs in Triple-A last year.
The 32-year-old Urena made five dismal starts for the Rockies early in the 2023 season and five solid ones for the White Sox late in the season. He also pitched well for Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate. A solid arm for the Marlins in 2017-18, Urena has a 5.50 ERA in 350 1/3 MLB frames dating back to 2019. He’s had a nice spring and could be a depth piece for an injury-plagued Rangers rotation.
Rays: RHP Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi signed last week and will look to get back on track after a shoulder injury cost him the 2023 season. With the exception of an injury-wrecked 2020 season, he’s been a dependable five-inning starter dating back to 2014 (3.98 ERA in 1216 innings). The Rays’ pitching staff is dealing with plenty of injuries, and Odorizzi should be an option for the Rays early in the season.
Red Sox: 1B C.J. Cron, RHP Michael Fulmer, C Roberto Perez, LHP Joely Rodriguez
Cron has four seasons of 25-plus homers under his belt and was consistently an above-average hitter from 2014-22. Injuries tanked his 2023 season, but he has a strong track record of hitting for power — with largely even platoon splits. He’d make a nice right-handed complement to Triston Casas and/or Masataka Yoshida at first base and designated hitter, providing some insurance against an injury to either.
Perez is an all-glove backup who’s never hit much outside the juiced ball season in 2019, when he popped 24 of his 55 career homers. The Sox figure to go with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the plate, making him a long shot to land a roster spot.
Rodriguez signed a big league deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2023 season but only pitched 11 innings due to injury. He’s having a decent spring training — two runs on nine hits and three walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings — and has a good chance to win a spot in a patchwork Red Sox bullpen. If not, his ability to miss bats and pile up grounders would likely draw interest elsewhere.
Fulmer won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing surgery last summer. His minor league deal is a two-year contract that stretches into 2025. The two sides knew this going into the arrangement and there’s no reason to expect he’ll opt out.
Royals: RHP Tyler Duffey
Duffey was a mainstay in the division-rival Twins’ bullpen and was a high-end setup option at his peak in 2019-21, posting a 2.89 ERA across 144 frames while fanning 29.8% of his opponents. His results slipped in 2022 as he lost some life on his fastball, and he pitched just two MLB frames with the Cubs in 2023. Duffey recently had a procedure to remove a cancerous mole from his shoulder that understandably halted his baseball activity for a bit. He’s hopeful he’ll pitch again this spring, and while the larger takeaway is relief that the melanoma was discovered and quickly treated, his track record could also give him a shot to crack the Royals’ bullpen early in the season.
White Sox: RHP Jesse Chavez, RHP Brad Keller, RHP Dominic Leone, 3B/1B Mike Moustakas, OF Kevin Pillar, RHP Bryan Shaw
Chavez, 40, has been excellent with the Braves in each of the past three seasons but struggled in stints with the Cubs and Angels. He’s having a tough spring with the White Sox but carries a 2.81 ERA in his past 137 2/3 MLB frames, spanning the 2021-23 seasons.
Keller has spent his entire big league career with the Royals but saw his time in Kansas City come to a rough ending. After a three-year run as a solid starter, Keller struggled in three subsequent seasons, culminating in an IL stint for symptoms indicative of thoracic outlet syndrome. He hasn’t pitched in an official spring game for the White Sox.
Leone struggled late in the 2023 season but has a cumulative 3.38 ERA in 157 innings over the past three seasons. He’s having a solid spring training, has late-inning experience, and seems like a decent bet to win a spot in a White Sox bullpen that’s been completely torn down since last summer.
Moustakas has turned in three straight below-average seasons at the plate and is struggling again with the White Sox in camp (.167/.268/.278 in 41 plate appearances). The Sox have Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn at the corners, plus Gavin Sheets as a lefty-swinging first base option (and corner outfielder) off the bench. Moose seems like a long shot to make the club.
Pillar would give the Sox a right-handed complement to lefty-hitting corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Dominic Fletcher. He’s 35 and no longer the plus-plus defensive center fielder he once was but could give them some insurance for Luis Robert Jr. in center as well. He hit .228/.248/.416 with nine homers in 206 plate appearances for the Braves last year.
Shaw pitched 45 2/3 innings for the Sox last year and delivered a respectable 4.14 ERA in that time. His production has tailed off substantially since his days as a consistent setup presence in the Cleveland bullpen — evidenced by a 5.07 ERA over his past six seasons. He’s been tagged for a dozen earned runs in 7 1/3 spring frames but does have 10 strikeouts.
Mets Name Tylor Megill Fifth Starter, Option Jose Butto
The Mets are optioning right-hander Jose Butto to Triple-A Syracuse and will open the season with righty Tylor Megill as their fifth starter, manager Carlos Mendoza announced to the team’s beat this morning (X link via Tim Healey of Newsday). He’ll join Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and Luis Severino in the team’s rotation to begin the season.
Megill, 28, is no stranger to the Mets’ rotation. Injuries elsewhere on the roster led to him making 25 starts for the team last season, and he’d started 27 games combined in the two seasons prior. However, an offseason full of mid-range pitching acquisitions for the Mets — Manaea, Severino and Houser all joined the team this winter — pushed Megill back down the depth chart. Were it not for right-hander Kodai Senga‘s shoulder injury, he’d likely have been ticketed for Syracuse himself.
Instead, Megill competed with Butto and did enough to convince the team he was the preferred option. Both righties pitched well. Megill has tossed 15 2/3 innings and held opponents to six runs on a dozen hits and four walks with 16 strikeouts. Butto yielded just one run in 10 innings and turned in a sharp 9-to-2 K/BB ratio. Megill is the older and more experienced of the two, and he’ll get the first look in rotation while Senga is sidelined. In 263 1/3 big league innings over the past three seasons, Megill has posted a 4.72 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 42.9% ground-ball rate and 1.50 HR/9.
Megill has flirted with a long-term rotation spot before and will again get a chance to prove himself to Mets higher-ups early in the 2024 campaign. Senga has yet to resume throwing, as his initial three-week shutdown has been stretched at least another seven to ten days. He’ll need to fully build his arm strength back up whenever he’s cleared to throw. That’ll likely be a weekslong process. Megill ought to have the first month of the season to make a positive impression. It’s always possible injuries crop up elsewhere on the starting staff and extend that window; Severino and Quintana, in particular, have had their share of health troubles in recent seasons.
As for Butto, he’ll head to Syracuse to begin the season but may not be down long. The Mets, as Healey points out, have a stretch of 13 games without an off-day early in their season and could look for a spot starter along the way. Butto is expected to be the next man up in the rotation and would be the leading candidate for that role, if needed. In 42 innings with the Mets last year, Butto logged a 3.64 ERA with a 21.2% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate, 42.2% grounder rate and 0.64 HR/9. He was hit hard in 19 Triple-A starts last year but posted solid numbers between Double-A and Triple-A back in 2022. He’s entering his final minor league option year and is still controllable for six seasons.
Royals Notes: Lacy, Brentz, Long
Royals left-hander Asa Lacy announced on Instagram that he’ll miss the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’ll likely be sidelined into the early portion of the 2025 campaign.
Lacy, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2020 draft after a standout college career at Texas A&M, ranked as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects in the year following that selection but has seen injuries and shaky performance tank his stock. Shoulder and back injuries have hobbled the lefty to this point in his pro career. He didn’t throw a pitch for a Royals affiliate in 2023 and will now also miss the ’24 campaign. Overall, Lacy has just 80 innings pitched since being drafted, and he’s posted a 7.09 ERA with a 21.3% walk rate in that time.
Lacy won’t turn 25 until June. There’s still time for him to eventually get back to full strength and resume the once-promising trajectory that made him a slam-dunk first-round pick and had him in the conversation for the No. 1 overall selection at times heading into that 2020 draft. As it stands, Lacy is one of several high-profile college arms around whom the Royals structured their most recent rebuilding efforts — an endeavor that simply hasn’t panned out.
Lacy, Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch IV, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar and Alec Marsh are among the names the club envisioned filling out a pipeline of young pitching. Singer has at times looked like a high-end starter but has lacked consistency. The others have yet to establish themselves in the majors. Stalled development among that group of college arms has been one of the key reasons for the Royals’ struggles in recent years and was surely a driving factor behind the team’s decision to spend a combined $77MM to sign Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in free agency this winter.
Kansas City will also be without lefty Jake Brentz for a decent chunk of time. The 29-year-old reliever has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and will miss at least six weeks of action, manager Matt Quatraro announced to the team’s beat this week (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com).
Brentz was a solid member of the K.C. bullpen back in 2021, tossing 64 innings with a 3.66 ERA, 15 holds and a pair of saves. His 13.3% walk rate was an obvious reason for concern, but Brentz helped to mitigate his sub-par command with a hearty 27.3% strikeout rate and strong 49% ground-ball rate. Injuries have taken their toll on the southpaw over the past several years, however. He dealt with a shoulder impingement late in that 2021 season and saw his 2022 campaign almost entirely wiped out by a flexor strain and a subsequent UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery.
Brentz inked a two-year, $1.9MM deal with the Royals covering the 2023-24 seasons, with the clear hope that he’d be at full strength again this year and serve as a key member of the bullpen. But a lat strain (coupled with that Tommy John rehab) limited him to just 2 2/3 minor league frames last year. He’s struggled mightily this spring, walking 11 of his 32 opponents and yielding a whopping 14 runs in just 5 1/3 innings of Cactus League action. When healthy, Brentz averaged 97 mph with his heater, missed bats in droves and kept the ball on the ground nicely. It’s been three years since we’ve seen that version of the lefty, but he’ll have the rest of this season and potentially another two years of arbitration eligibility with the Royals to get back on track.
The injury to Brentz thins out the competition for the final couple bullpen spots in Kansas City. One name that’s impressed the club thus far in camp, writes Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star, is left-hander Sam Long. In camp as a non-roster invitee, the former A’s and Giants hurler has tossed 7 1/3 frames and held opponents to one run on five hits and a walk with 13 punchouts.
Long, 28, signed a minor league deal back in December. He’s pitched in the majors in each of the past three seasons, logging 128 innings between MLB’s two Bay Area clubs. In that time, Long has pitched to a 4.92 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. He’s at 1.160 years of big league service time, so if he wins a spot in Kansas City’s bullpen and can cement himself as a consistent option, they’d be able to control him for as many as five seasons.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Players Reportedly Pressuring MLBPA Director Tony Clark To Replace Deputy Director Bruce Meyer
As frustration bubbles among players regarding the state of free agency this offseason, a significant portion of their ranks are pushing for changes in union leadership. Reports from Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and from Jeff Passan of ESPN indicate that during a call between union reps and union leadership earlier this week, players pushed executive director Tony Clark to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer with Harry Marino.
Marino, the former head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers who temporarily joined the MLBPA, worked alongside Meyer to spearhead negotiations on the minor league collective bargaining agreement. That agreement was hammered out last year when minor leaguers unionized and were formally adopted by the MLBPA. Marino and Meyer have a “strained” relationship from their time working together on that effort, per Drellich and Rosenthal.
Meyer, 62, joined the union in Aug. 2018 after the union had been panned for its negotiations of the 2016-21 MLB collective bargaining agreement, which was widely viewed as a success for the league. He’s spent more than three decades working with unions for other major sports, including players unions in the NFL, NHL and NBA.
Frustration from the players’ side of things stems from a number of topics. The stalled market for top free agents, the erosion of the middle class of free agency, an overall decrease in free-agent spending and the peculiar J.D. Davis release after he’d won an arbitration hearing all contribute to the unrest, per the reports.
Passan notes that support for Marino’s ascension to the No. 2 spot in the union was not unanimous among players but was broadly supported. Detractors question his youth (33 years old) and lack of experience in high-profile negotiations prior to his work with the minor league union. Notably, Marino was not involved on the call, and Clark rebuffed player requests that he be present. Support for Marino isn’t a big surprise, given the rather surprising 38-34 split of the union’s 72 executive board slots first reported by Drellich and Rosenthal (38 big leaguers, 34 minor leaguers).
The lingering presence of many top free agents has been attributed to myriad factors: uncertainty surrounding the television broadcast rights of roughly a third of the league due to the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings at Diamond Sports Group (which owns Bally Sports Network), a slate of typically high-spending clubs running into top-level luxury tax penalties, and the large contingent of Boras Corporation clients atop the free agent market. Rival agents, according to both The Athletic and ESPN, have pushed the idea that Meyer is influenced and ideologically aligned with the Boras Corporation more than other agencies. Meyer called allegations of Boras’ influence on collective bargaining negotiations “absurd” back in 2021 and has continued to push back on them.
The presence of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman (and to a lesser extent, J.D. Martinez) lingering atop the market into the late stages of spring training has been an oft-cited point throughout the winter. Someone as vocal as Scott Boras is always going to have his share of detractors — both in terms of rival agents and a vocal portion of the MLB fanbase that sees him as bad for the game.
It’s undeniably been a tough offseason for the top clients of the game’s most recognizable agent, though it’s worth pointing out that beyond the “Boras Four,” his agency has negotiated Major League contracts for 13 other free agents (Jung Hoo Lee, Rhys Hoskins, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Kenta Maeda, Erick Fedde and Frankie Montas among them). That’s not presented as a means of defending the series of disappointing outcomes for the top of this year’s class but rather to simply provide context on the offseason as a whole. Both reports suggest that fellow agents are the root of a good bit of the pushback regarding Boras and whatever influence he may or may not have, though it stands to reason that many clients of those rival agencies harbor similar suspicions.
More concerning than the top end of the market stalling out — at least for many players — is the fading middle class of free agency. Surprising as it may be to see players like Bellinger and Snell settling on short-term deals with opt outs, it’s surely every bit as concerning for players to see veterans like Gio Urshela ($1.5MM), Amed Rosario ($1.5MM) and Adam Duvall ($3MM) sign for a relative pittance after struggling to find much of a market.
Also telling is the dwindling number of long-term free agent deals. There were 17 contracts of four or more years doled out in free agency last offseason. In the 2021-22 offseason, 19 such deals were brokered. During the current offseason, there have been 11 deals of four-plus seasons — five of which went to international free agents coming over from the KBO or from NPB. Only six established MLB free agents have signed a four-year deal (or longer) this offseason, and one of those was reliever Wandy Peralta, who took an uncommon opt-out laden structure with a light AAV after apparently not finding a deal more commensurate with market norms for a setup reliever of his caliber.
As far as the Davis situation is concerned, it’s understandable if players are uneasy with the manner in which things transpired. Davis’ agent, Matt Hannaford of ALIGND Sports, has accused the Giants of negotiating in bad faith, making only one offer less than an hour before the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures. Hannaford said he and Davis felt they were left with little choice but to go to a hearing, which they won — only for the Giants to release Davis midway through spring training at a point when only one-sixth of his $6.9MM salary (approximately $1.15M) was guaranteed.
Davis spoke to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle about his frustrations over the manner and his concern that future instances along these same lines may occur. “If one team does this after going to arbitration then it turns into 70% of teams, what’s to stop teams from just making the lowest possible offer knowing no one will take them to arbitration?” Davis asked rhetorically. “That bothers me for future players in this situation.”
Meyer and his defenders (presumably including Clark) can point to the fact that the Davis situation was actually something that could have happened (and in the past has happened) to any player — and not just the ones who go to an arbitration hearing. Under prior collective bargaining agreements, all arbitration salaries were non-guaranteed unless specifically negotiated otherwise (which was rare). Any player who’d agreed to a one-year deal in arbitration was subject to the same rules: they could be cut for 30 days’ termination pay (roughly one-sixth their salary) with 15 or more days remaining in camp or for 45 days’ termination pay with fewer than 15 days until the season commenced.
That the majority of players were protected from this fate was viewed as a win for the union. Of course, Davis’ concerns that some clubs could just make low-ball offers, push for hearings and then move on from fringe players who best their teams in a hearing is not without merit.
Other perceived wins for players under the leadership of Clark and Meyer were the increase of minimum salary ($570K in 2021; $740K in 2024), the creation of a pre-arbitration bonus pool for young players, a draft lottery designed to cut back on aggressive tanking/rebuilding, and notable increases to the base thresholds for the luxury tax/competitive balance tax ($210MM in 2021; $237MM in 2024). In exchange, the players conceded to the creation of a fourth luxury tier with particularly stiff penalties and the expansion of the playoff field from 10 to 12 teams — among other elements.
Clark has not made a formal declaration on Meyer’s future with the union. Unrest notwithstanding, it’s not yet clear whether any significant changes to union leadership will be made.
Red Sox’ Chris Murphy Diagnosed With Ligament Damage In Elbow
11:50am: The Red Sox fear a “high grade tear” in Murphy’s ulnar collateral ligament, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. He’s receiving additional testing and opinions.
8:51am: Red Sox left-hander Chris Murphy underwent an MRI yesterday after experiencing recent elbow discomfort, and that imaging revealed ligament damage in his pitching elbow, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The Red Sox haven’t yet determined whether surgery will be the next step, though that’s the typical outcome for injuries of this nature. A treatment plan will be finalized in the coming days, per Speier.
The 25-year-old Murphy was slated to enter the season as one of the Sox’ top depth options in the rotation. He made his big league debut last season, tossing 47 2/3 frames with an unsightly 4.91 ERA but much better secondary marks. Murphy fanned a solid 23.1% of his opponents against an 8% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 44.7% clip. All of those stats were right in line with or even slightly better than the league average. Metrics like FIP (3.70) and SIERA (3.88) painted a much more favorable picture of the rookie’s work than his base earned run average.
Boston is set to open the season with Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford in a rotation that’s already lost top offseason signee Lucas Giolito for the season. Murphy, fellow lefty Brandon Walter and right-hander Cooper Criswell are all on the 40-man roster and were expected to be among the first names up should further injuries compromise the projected rotation. While it’s not yet clear he’ll miss the season, Murphy will at the very least no longer be an option in the early portion of the season.
Whether the injuries to Giolito and Murphy prompt the Red Sox to look for additional depth in the rotation remains to be seen, but it’s a rough development for any club to lose its No. 1 and No. 6 or 7 starters before the season even gets underway. The Sox have long been connected to lingering free agent lefty Jordan Montgomery, and others still on the market include Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. There’ll also surely be some names returning to the market in the coming days as veterans on minor league deals with other teams are informed that they’ve not made the cut with their current organization.
If Murphy ultimately requires surgery, he’ll be eligible to spend the season on the major league 60-day injured list, as he suffered the injury while in big league camp. He’d accrue a full year of service time and pay while undergoing surgery and rehabbing. He currently has just 81 days of MLB service time, giving the Sox six full seasons of control over him. Murphy won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2026 season and isn’t on track for free agency until the 2029-30 offseason.
Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners’ front office operated under tight payroll restrictions from ownership in light of uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract this offseason. That didn’t stop “Trader Jerry” Dipoto, the team’s president of baseball operations, from aggressively overhauling the roster with a series of trades colored by monetary implications. (This year’s Mariners Review might include the lengthiest “trades and waiver claims” section I’ve ever written in a decade of doing these reviews.)
Major League Signings
- Mitch Garver, DH/C: Two years, $24MM
- Ryne Stanek, RHP: One year, $4MM
- Austin Voth, RHP: One year, $1.3MM
2024 spend: $17.3MM
Total spend: $29.3MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Acquired OF Mitch Haniger, RHP Anthony DeSclafani and cash from Giants in exchange for LHP Robbie Ray
- Acquired 2B Jorge Polanco from Twins in exchange for DeSclafani, RHP Justin Topa, OF Gabriel Gonzalez and RHP Darren Bowen
- Acquired RHP Gregory Santos from White Sox in exchange for OF Zach DeLoach, RHP Prelander Berroa and Competitive Balance Round B draft pick (No. 69 overall)
- Acquired OF Luke Raley from Rays in exchange for 2B/SS Jose Caballero
- Acquired RHP Carlos Vargas and C Seby Zavala from Diamondbacks in exchange for 3B Eugenio Suarez
- Acquired 3B Luis Urias from Red Sox in exchange for RHP Isaiah Campbell
- Acquired RHP Jackson Kowar and RHP Cole Phillips from Braves in exchange for OF Jarred Kelenic, LHP Marco Gonzales and 1B Evan White
- Acquired C Blake Hunt from Rays in exchange for C Tatem Levins
- Acquired 2B/OF Samad Taylor from Royals in exchange for PTBNL (later announced to be RHP Natanael Garabitos)
- Acquired RHP Cody Bolton from Pirates in exchange for cash
- Traded RHP Riley O’Brien to Cardinals in exchange for cash
- Traded RHP Darren McCaughan to Marlins in exchange for cash
- Claimed RHP Mauricio Llovera off waivers from Red Sox (later outrighted to Triple-A)
- Claimed RHP Collin Snider off waivers from Diamondbacks
- Claimed RHP Levi Stoudt off waivers from Reds
- Claimed RHP Kaleb Ort off waivers from Red Sox (later lost via waivers to Marlins)
- Claimed OF Canaan Smith-Njigba off waivers from Pirates (later lost back to Pirates via waivers)
Minor League Signings
- Brian Anderson, Heath Hembree, Michael Chavis, Nick Solak, Cole Tucker, Cory Abbott, Kirby Snead, Joey Krehbiel, Casey Lawrence, Jason Vosler, Rangel Ravelo, Tyson Miller, Brett de Geus, Michael Papierski, Sean Poppen, Ty Buttrey, Trevor Kelley, Jordan Holloway
Notable Losses
- Teoscar Hernandez, Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suarez, Tom Murphy, Jarred Kelenic, Mike Ford, Marco Gonzales, Justin Topa, Jose Caballero, Isaiah Campbell, Prelander Berroa, Evan White, Penn Murfee (claimed by Braves), Cooper Hummel (claimed by Mets), Ryan Jensen (claimed by Marlins), Luis Torrens, Brian O’Keefe, Adam Oller, Easton McGee
It became clear fairly early in the offseason that despite the Mariners’ recent success, including the end of their two-decade playoff drought in 2022, payroll wouldn’t be rising much in 2024. Like so many clubs around the league, their offseason dealings were colored by uncertainty surrounding the team’s television rights. While Seattle wasn’t planning to cut payroll like many other clubs around the game, the Seattle Times reported in early December that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, general manager Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office received a smaller budget than anticipated from ownership.
That didn’t stop plenty of speculation regarding Seattle-area native Blake Snell, but a big free agent splash like that never seemed likely given the front office’s apparent budgetary restrictions. Instead, Dipoto went with a familiar approach: operating primarily on the trade market. Even by his own standards, this was an offseason for the ages in terms of wheeling and dealing. The Mariners made a staggering 12 trades over the course of their offseason.
Perhaps most remarkable about that progression of trades isn’t the sheer volume but rather the fact that Seattle held onto its entire crop of vaunted young pitchers. Entering the offseason, it seemed quite likely that one of Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo or Emerson Hancock could be dealt as the team looked to bolster other areas of the roster. Controllable starting pitching is always in demand, and there was less of it available this season than in years past. The Mariners, facing needs at designated hitter, second base, third base and in the outfield, could very likely have moved a young starter and filled multiple holes in one fell swoop.
That wasn’t meant to be, however. Dipoto would reveal that he unsurprisingly received considerable interest in his young pitchers but “never liked the way it looked” before adding that holding onto the entire group as always “Plan A.”
Even if the plan was to hold onto that group, changes were clearly needed. Dipoto hinted at a possible retooling early in the winter suggesting that he hoped add some more contact-oriented bats to the roster in the wake of last year’s prodigious strikeout totals. While the Mariners achieved this to some extent, that desire certainly didn’t inform all of their offseason moves, as many of the team’s new acquisitions still strike out at alarming rates.
Eugenio Suarez was the first domino to fall in this regard. He’d been a solid contributor for the Mariners in each of the two prior seasons but struck out in 31% of his plate appearances along the way and saw his power output dip in 2023. Suarez led the American League in strikeouts in both 2022 and 2023. A substantial dip in his defensive grades could well cause his value to plummet, as he was effectively a league-average bat in ’23 (102 wRC+). His contact rate on pitches in the zone sat more than five percentage points shy of league-average, and on pitches off the plate, it was nearly 13 percentage points shy of the mean. Suarez is making just enough contact and playing just sharp enough defense to remain an above-average regular, but his margin for error is thinning.
In return for Suarez, the Mariners got one of the game’s hardest-throwing young relievers, Carlos Vargas, and a backup catcher who strikes out at a staggering 35% clip: Seby Zavala. While Zavala was acquired for his glove, not his bat, it was a bit curious to see the team cite a desire to improve contact skills and then acquire such a whiff-heavy backstop. Cal Raleigh will work a larger workload than most starting catchers, but Zavala’s whiffs are still prodigious. For a Mariners club that is as good as any in the game — maybe better than any other — at maximizing bullpen performance, getting a power arm like Vargas is particularly intriguing. Still, the $12MM in cost savings in this deal was surely a motivating factor.
Replacing Suarez at the hot corner will be fellow trade pickup Luis Urias and holdover Josh Rojas, whom the M’s acquired last summer in exchange for Paul Sewald (a move that, in retrospect, perhaps foreshadowed the current offseason’s payroll restrictions, when considering Sewald’s arbitration salary). Urias was a buy-low grab who posted a solid .244/.320/.446 slash in 2021-22 with the Brewers before an injury-ruined ’23 season. In hindsight, the Mariners might regret committing $5MM to him so early, as veteran infielders like Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario signed for a year and $1.5MM apiece late in spring training, but their price tags falling to such extreme levels was generally unforeseeable.
The Suarez trade irked Mariners fans, as it seemed clearly financially motivated to at least some extent, but the trade of Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Marco Gonzales smacked even more heavily of a salary dump. The M’s acquired a former second-rounder, Cole Phillips, who’d yet to pitch professionally due to injury and a change-of-scenery former prospect in Jackson Kowar. Both have since undergone Tommy John surgery.
Kelenic was a symbol of hope during the Mariners’ last rebuild — touted as a potential outfield cornerstone alongside current face of the franchise Julio Rodriguez. Things simply haven’t panned out that way, however. Kelenic has looked flummoxed by MLB pitching on a repeated basis, particularly fellow lefties. He had a hot start in 2023 but faded immensely before breaking his foot when he kicked a water cooler following a strikeout in a key situation. The Mariners shed $24.25MM of payroll in that deal and received little in return. But dealing Kelenic and his 31.7% strikeout rate did mesh with Dipoto’s goal of improving the team’s contact.
Between the departures of Suarez, Kelenic and free agent Teoscar Hernandez (who signed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal), the M’s bid adieu to a trio who combined for 1788 plate appearances and each struck out in 31% of their plate appearances (or more). In trading Suarez, Kelenic, Gonzales and White, the Mariners also trimmed nearly $37MM off the long-term payroll.
Those weren’t the only cost-driven deals of the winter, however. Dipoto shipped the final three seasons of Robbie Ray’s $115MM contract to the Giants in a trade bringing back old friend Mitch Haniger and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners know just how productive Haniger can be when at his best but are also plenty familiar with his susceptibility to injuries and strikeouts. As with Garver, he’s not a panacea for the team’s contact woes, but Haniger has never punched out at a clip higher than 2019’s 28.6%. He was at 28.4% in 2023 while battling through an oblique strain, a back strain and another fluky injury: a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a pitch.
Outside of last year, Haniger has been an above-average offensive player in every full season of his career. He’ll probably never return to his peak 2017-18 form, but even 2022’s .246/.308/.429 slash was 13% better than average, per wRC+. The Mariners would likely be fine with that level of output, and anything extra would be a bonus.
The Haniger/DeSclafani/Ray trade also set the stage for one of the Mariners’ biggest acquisitions of the offseason. It took several months to come together, but the M’s and Twins finally made good on what was a clear on-paper match from a trade partner standpoint. Seattle acquired switch-hitting second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins, sending back DeSclafani to provide some pitching depth, righty Justin Topa to beef up the Minnesota bullpen, and a pair of prospects: Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Gonzalez is particularly well-regarded, landing on a handful of top-100 lists this winter. Bowen joined the back end of the Twins’ top 30 prospects. The Mariners included the $6MM of salary relief the Giants provided for DeSclafani and kicked in another $2MM, leaving the Twins on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary.
The Mariners weakened their bullpen, thinned out their rotation depth a bit and traded one of their best outfield prospects to get the trade done. From a roster construction standpoint, however, it worked for both parties. Seattle’s pitching is a strength, while second base was a glaring need. Mariners second basemen hit .205/.294/.313 last season. Only four teams (Giants, Brewers, Rockies, White Sox) saw their second basemen turn in a worse wRC+ mark than Seattle’s collective 75.
Going from that dearth of production to Polanco, who’s slashed .267/.337/.458 over his past 2362 plate appearances in the majors (117 wRC+) is a massive upgrade. Like Haniger, he’s had some recent injury issues, but Polanco is a balanced switch-hitter who’s signed for just $10.5MM in 2024 with a $12MM club option for the 2025 season. Knee and hamstring injuries limited him to 80 games last year, but he’s a clearly above-average hitter and capable defender at second base. His 18.2% career strikeout rate should help the Mariners’ contact goals, though it’s worth noting he did whiff in a career-high 25.7% of his plate appearances last year.
Sending Topa to Minnesota in that trade on the heels of his 2023 breakout — 69 innings, 23 holds, 2.61 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 56.7% grounder rate — may also have served as a catalyst for one of the Mariners’ most uncharacteristic moves in recent memory. Seattle has thrived at turning minor league signees, waiver pickups and other little-noticed acquisitions into impact relievers. Topa himself is an example of it. They’ve become so prominent at doing so that the team has even coined the “Steckenrider Bucket” term — a nod to them signing Drew Steckenrider to a minor league pact a few years back and enjoying a dominant season of setup work from the journeyman righty.
Their February acquisition of White Sox closer Gregory Santos, however, marked the rare instance in which the Mariners paid a steep price in a trade for a reliever. It’s easy enough to see why Santos appealed to them. He pitched 66 1/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball in front of a terrible defense, striking out 22.8% of his opponents against a 5.9% walk rate. Santos kept the ball on the ground at a 52.5% clip, averaged a blistering 98.8 mph on his heater, induced swinging strikes (13.4%) and chases off the plate (34.9%) at high clips, and regularly avoided dangerous contact (34.9% hard-hit rate, 1% barrel rate). Beyond that, he’s controllable for five more years and not arbitration-eligible until after the 2025 season.
Still, sending not only prospects Zach DeLoach and Prelander Berroa, but also a Competitive Balance draft pick that’ll slot in at 69th overall this summer, marked a divergence from the Mariners’ typical methods. Perhaps the M’s grew weary of mining for hidden gems on an annual basis. Perhaps they simply (and quite understandably) loved Santos’ arm and were enamored of the idea of pairing him with Andres Munoz and Matt Brash in the long term. Whatever the rationale, it gives the Mariners a potential three-headed bullpen monster for the ages. Both Brash and Santos are banged up and will begin the season on the injured list, but neither is believed to be facing a monthslong absence. At some point in the not-too-distant future, that trio will be locking down leads for manager Scott Servais. It’s a fun group on which to dream.
Polanco’s acquisition also helped replenish some of the depth the Mariners lost when trading Jose Caballero to the Rays in exchange for slugger Luke Raley. The 27-year-old Caballero debuted and usurped Kolten Wong as the starting second baseman, though he faded quite a bit after a hot start. Flipping him for Raley adds a considerable influx of left-handed power to the Seattle lineup — Raley homered 19 times in just 406 plate appearances and posted a stout .241 ISO — but does also set the club back in terms of contact skills. Raley fanned at a 31.5% rate in 2023. He hasn’t hit lefties at all in his brief MLB career (.206/.257/.324), so he’ll likely be platooned with Dylan Moore or serve as a bench bat, if the club prefers to give hot-hitting Dominic Canzone the first crack at the larger portion of the left field job. Either way, Raley’s out of options, so he’ll be on the roster.
We’re deep into this look back at the Seattle offseason but haven’t even yet touched on the team’s free agent dealings. That’s both a testament to the astonishing volume of trades and also a reflection of a fairly modest offseason in terms of free agent activity. However, the Mariners did shed a good chunk of money in the trades of Suarez, Kelenic/White/Gonzales, and Ray — as much as $43MM overall. That money has since been largely reinvested into the roster.
To replace Hernandez, Seattle signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal. Garver comes with his own strikeout concerns, but not to the extent of the players he’ll effectively be replacing. He’s fanned in 25.6% of his career plate appearances (24.2% over the past two seasons in Texas) and, more importantly, has quietly been one of the best-hitting catchers in the game when healthy.
Seattle will use Garver as the primary DH, though he could potentially suit up for a few games behind the plate depending on the health of Raleigh and Zavala. This was a bat-driven move, however. Over the past three seasons, Garver has hit .249/.347/.479 (128 wRC+) with 42 homers in 802 plate appearances. He’s a career .272/.377/.509 hitter against lefties. He’s been injured often, doesn’t run well and fans more than the average hitter, so there are some concerns. But the Mariners will hope regular DH at-bats keep him in the lineup more frequently — and if they’re right, he has more than enough bat to fill that role.
The aforementioned injuries to Santos, Brash and Kowar in camp proved too much even for a deep Seattle bullpen to withstand without making any noise. As those three relievers were banged up, the Mariners turned back to the free agent market and signed Ryne Stanek — one of the best remaining relievers — to a one-year, $4MM deal. He’s coming off a down season in terms of ERA and strikeout rate, but Stanek posted the first sub-10% walk rate of his career in 2023 and is yet another power-armed reliever with a fastball that sits north of 98 mph. Each of Munoz, Brash and Santos top 98 mph on average, as well.
Seattle’s only other free agent pickup, Austin Voth, is more in line with their traditional bullpen acquisitions. He inked a $1.3MM deal and will open the season as a swingman. The 31-year-old once looked like a potential long-term rotation option with the Nationals but never found consistency in D.C. He was designated for assignment in 2022, thrived down the stretch after landing in Baltimore (3.04 ERA in 22 appearances, including 17 starts), but couldn’t replicate that success in 2023 (5.19 ERA in 34 2/3 innings). The Mariners will be his third club, and if they can get Voth right, he’ll be controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration.
The Mariners overhauled their lineup, essentially swapping out Hernandez, Suarez, Kelenic, Caballero, Wong, Mike Ford, Tom Murphy and AJ Pollock for a group including Polanco, Haniger, Garver, Raley, Urias and Zavala. It’s not a perfect lineup still, the core of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford and Ty France — who’ll ideally have a bounceback season — was always going to be the engine driving a contending Mariners club. The new group might not represent as dramatic a reduction in strikeouts as the front office hoped, but this collection of hitters should indeed put the ball in play more frequently.
And for all that turnover, the Mariners made it work without parting with any of their vaunted young starting pitchers or radically increasing payroll. Trading Miller or Woo for a bat, then signing Snell and Matt Chapman might have been a more straightforward means of operating, but those types of expenditures were never in the cards, given ownership’s budget.
The Mariners kept their core in tact, replaced a good bit of any lost production from the departures of Suarez and Hernandez, and did so while operating within a pretty tight set of financial restrictions. They may not be AL West favorites, but this group should be competitive again and the lineup looks solid, even if it’s a wildly different group than they trotted out a year ago. The biggest acquisitions — Polanco, Garver, Santos — are all signed/controlled through at least 2025 as well, making this whirlwind offseason one that’ll impact them beyond the current campaign.
How would you grade the Mariners' offseason?
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B 48% (1,650)
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C 28% (986)
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A 12% (420)
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D 8% (275)
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F 4% (130)
Total votes: 3,461